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The Atlantic alliance is dead. Trump's import tariffs will create room for massive rearmament in Europe. USA will struggle to replace imports without causing inflation

Does a deal made by Trump and Putin mean 'peace' or is it a signal for massive rearmament in the European Union?

There will be no updates on Friday, February 14, 2025

Friedrich Merz positions CDU/CSU to win back 'uncomfortable' AfD voters. SPD risks division

The inevitable trade war between the US and the European Union. Can Trump get union leaders to kiss the ring?

Everything points to significant policy rate hikes in Japan and yen appreciation. Prime Minister Ishiba is visiting Washington

Complexity: Friedrich Merz dares to confront immigration - and has the public on his side - but Merz is not 'likeable'

Insightview recommends selling US stocks

The EU faces high risks in a trade war - but Trump's 'tariff boomerang' will also hit the US hard. Anti-American sentiment is rising

The inflation report visualises the many constraints in the Eurozone. The EU and the US are moving away from each other

EU survey shows no signs of improvement. AfD gains ground. Cracks in Germany's firewall - and CDU/CSU

Germany needs dramatic change - but opinion polls continue to point in a different direction

Now, the EU countries suddenly want to act 'decisively' - but the EU is no longer in control of its own destiny

The Bank of Japan raises policy rates: Geopolitics and demographics leave no other option

Presentation: Outlook 2025 slides

Does Donald Trump's 'benign' inauguration speech reflect a reality check in Washington?

Geopolitics and a lack of political renewal push Friedrich Merz's CDU-CSU below 30% in new opinion poll

China: It is good to be the King of Statistics. Surprise. Beijing hits its growth target

USA: The December inflation report does not alter rising inflationary pressure in 2025. DOGE needs to deliver in a more hostile environment

China Presentation - China is an economic success that challenges Western democracies - Yet, the Chinese doubt whether 'tomorrow will be better than today'

China's trade statistics reveal much about what might be coming, according to Beijing

Interest rate turmoil in the United Kingdom will spread to the Eurozone after the election in Germany

German Election Could Create Even More Chaos for the EU: Support for the AfD is rising sharply

Trump 2.0 runs into chaos, further benefiting a well-prepared China. Elon Musk vs MAGA could derail Trump 2.0

China faces significant economic challenges that can be 'easily' resolved - but is the solution what the Communist Party desires?

Due to the Christmas holidays, there will be no activity on the website from 19 December to 3 January [both days included]

IFO: Market forces operate perfectly in the German labour market - but Berlin and the corporate sector left the economy off-side

China's Economy: More talk than action from Beijing

More skeletons fall out of the closet in Germany. Electricity prices are skyrocketing despite weak industrial production

President Xi Jinping faces significant setbacks - but don't expect leniency from Beijing

The Department of Government Efficiency's success is a necessity for Trump 2.0

What does Assad's fall mean for Trump 2.0? Everything, as Iran edges closer to developing nuclear weapons

China will find it difficult to deviate from the 'path of Japanification'

Germany chose low debt, thereby leaving itself alone on the platform. This will change radically after the election

Does the EU have the political stability to create change? Will voters support the 'old Guard'?

EU stands at a crossroads - Households increasingly worried about unemployment - Private consumption will not drive the economy

China is 'prepared', and Trump 2.0 is 'prepared' - but that is the problem

Trump 2.0 shows 'good governance' - so far - but the pressure on the Europeans has begun

Germany faces a massive challenge - and a 'peace deal' in Ukraine will only worsen the financial strain

The US and the EU face necessary tasks that will increase budget deficits. A peace deal in Ukraine will add even more financial pressure on the EU

What could go wrong in the German federal election? Quite a lot

China will test Trump 2.0 for 'empty' threats. Has the US prepared for a hawkish response from Beijing?

The appointments show that the Trump administration is all in this time - but the president-elect suffers a significant defeat in the Senate

A 'professional' Trump administration with many contradictions. Chaos will gain the upper hand later in 2025

China is well-prepared for Trump version 2.0. Beijing's window of opportunity has been - and remains - wide open since 2011

A compelling Friedrich Merz election victory will transform Germany and the European Union - but this is the last call

Germany is in a hurry, a real hurry. The window of opportunity will close quickly in 2025

A convincing Trump victory will hit US allies hard. The risk of 'crowding out' and inflation necessitates significant public spending cuts

A relationship in Berlin without love likely means an impending divorce. Tomorrow?

Are expectations for Beijing's fiscal package too high? The largest German companies underestimate the geopolitical situation

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