1. December 2023
US ISM survey: The Federal Reserve will start a slow process of policy rate cuts when unemployment increases 'more significantly'
30. November 2023
Eurozone inflation: The low-hanging fruits are gone. Now, energy prices (just) need to remain stable, and unemployment needs to rise
A weak Chinese economy makes the outcome of the upcoming EU-China summit even more interesting
29. November 2023
EU Commission survey continues to show a very tight Eurozone labour market - but falling inflation expectations
28. November 2023
Eurozone: The French Insee consumer survey reflects the complexity of the Eurozone's many headwinds. AfD and BSW hit a combined 31% in today's German opinion poll
27. November 2023
China's capital balance data underscore the extent of foreign companies' mistrust in Beijing, regardless of recent attempts of moderation
24. November 2023
Chaos in Berlin and the Dutch election do not bode well for the EU-China summit. The air is being let out of von der Leyen's balloon
Podcast interview with Anders Overvad, Think Tank Europa: De-risking is an existential necessity for the European Union [language: Danish]
23. November 2023
The EU's 'political centre' has only one shot left. What does a strong shift to the right mean for the financial market?
20. November 2023
Eurozone: Falling inflation does not change the storyboard. Factory gate prices are still up by 40% since 2019 - and de-risking is coming
17. November 2023
EU Commission: De-risking from China or face trouble
15. November 2023
The Xi-Biden meeting is paramount, but less so than the interpretation of 'true intentions' in Washington and Beijing
14. November 2023
What keeps the US economy going - and what does it mean for 2024? Unfortunately, even more concerns
13. November 2023
Different forecasts for the Eurozone are based on fundamentally different geopolitical scenarios
9. November 2023
De-risking is deflationary in China and inflationary in the EU, but Brussels maintains a hawkish stance towards Beijing
7. November 2023
The European Union faces an 'auto tsunami' from China. Will Brussels act? Yes, but not due to corporate interests in Europe
The two pillars of the Insightview storyboard remain valid for the Eurozone - Headwinds from geopolitics and demographics
3. November 2023
What is the impact of 'high policy rates for longer' when investors believe central banks are wrong?
1. November 2023
The Federal Reserve needs a significant increase in unemployment to change policy. The federal debt maturity structure does not look good
Beijing considers a 'more friendly' approach to the private sector - forced by economic reality. But for how long? India raises the level of trade tensions with Beijing
30. October 2023
No Updates on Oct. 30-31 - Business Trip
27. October 2023
French economic statistics show why the European economy is amidst an entirely different situation than in the past
A short note on the rising risk of a trade war between the EU and China
26. October 2023
Sweden's NIER survey reflects what the ECB is facing - but also raises questions about monetary policymakers' credibility
25. October 2023
Germany's road to recovery will be bumpy but necessary. Soon, Brussels is expected to provide 'help'
24. October 2023
Germany: Consumer sentiment declines. The political centre is 'under siege' by AfD, and now a new party on the far-left
23. October 2023
China's excess capacity challenge: Has the 'mother of all global dumping' just started?
20. October 2023
The growing concerns about China - and why the European Union finally sees the writing on the wall
A brief summary in English of opinions expressed by Klaus Anker Petersen in yesterday's podcast interview about China
19. October 2023
Are US Treasuries a screaming buy?
Podcast interview with Klaus Anker Petersen: China remains lucrative for European companies - but it has become a more difficult market [Language: Danish]
18. October 2023
Deciphering China's economic growth and Xi Jinping's vision. Beijing has not demonstrated maturity in its new role as a global superpower
17. October 2023
Strengthening Europe's defence - bypassing the EU's bureaucratic interference
16. October 2023
Navigating turbulent times: The impact on consumer sentiment and monetary policy
13. October 2023
Beijing is 'supposed' to react more forcefully to economic headwinds - but Xi Jinping has a different agenda
12. October 2023
USA inflation: The same monetary tightening as in 2004-2006 but with a different outcome due to a fundamentally different environment
11. October 2023
USA: Inflationary pressure will rise without a significant increase in unemployment
Beijing plans to launch a 'symbolic growth package' - but households let down again
10. October 2023
US NFIB survey: Despite significant monetary tightening, labour shortages are prevailing. Loan availability is declining
A brief summary in English of opinions expressed by Camilla T.N. Sorensen in yesterday's podcast interview about Hama's terror attack in Israel
9. October 2023
Podcast interview: The Middle East is a powder keg that could explode anytime. Is it really in the interest of the Chinese and Americans? [language: Danish]
Israel's 'September 11': The Middle East powder keg could ignite any moment. Hamas terrorist attack will cast global immigration in an even less favourable light
6. October 2023
An analysis of the future yield curve and bond yields based on three assumptions
5. October 2023
Germany at a dangerous crossroads: The window of opportunity for Berlin could close rapidly. Several headwinds are now hitting the economy
4. October 2023
A follow-up chart: US corporate debt, higher interest rates and falling corporate net-interest payments
3. October 2023
Yield curve steepening: There is no room for political missteps in the bond markets
2. October 2023
The Bank of Japan will find it challenging to prevent a steeper sell-off in the long end of the bond market
A bad weekend for the European Union and Ukraine - but unfortunately, not the last. The 'Danish case' does not give cause for optimism among voters
29. September 2023
The public sector debt crisis: Not just America's problem, but the West's looming headache
28. September 2023
The ECB's task of reining in long-term inflation expectations has only just begun - and this will be painful. The EU risk of becoming 'too French'
26. September 2023
Germany: The probability of a huge fiscal stimulus package increases as the 'IFO message' transforms into facts on the ground
25. September 2023
Inflation: Why the focus should shift 'permanently' from inflation to real bond yields
22. September 2023
Is the EU acting according to its size? Paris-Berlin aims for a 'multi-speed Europe'
21. September 2023
US Philadelphia Fed survey underscores a complex environment for the Federal Reserve. Inflation pressure increases, but the headline index declines
France's leading business survey reflects ECB's dilemma: The 'labour shortage problem' will not go away despite slower growth
20. September 2023
The Federal Reserve will likely choose 'unchanged' - and 'higher rates for longer'. The monetary normalisation process has been a success despite the usual grumbles
19. September 2023
Germany: Bundesbank warns about too slow de-risking from China, as 'deindustrialisation' prevails
18. September 2023
Taiwan-China: European investors and companies should prepare for a Chinese 'blockade of Taiwan' shortly after the US election
15. September 2023
China's economic data shows a hint of life. The problems remain the same, but investors might expect a different solution than what Xi Jinping has in mind
Podcast interview with Rhodium Group, Washington: Beijing has no fiscal leeway. What does it mean for Xi Jinping's China?
14. September 2023
ECB hikes policy rates again, navigating a different reality than 2008
13. September 2023
US inflation report: The looming risk of a long-term inflation problem
The risk of a new inflationary leg in the Eurozone and the United States remains significant
4. September 2023
There will be no updates on September 4-8 and 11-12 due to holiday
1. September 2023
US employment report: Monetary policy is working - but the task of the Federal Reserve will be challenged by demographics and geopolitics - and politicians who are not lending a helping hand
31. August 2023
Revisiting monetary policy: Why central banks prefer to err on the 'hawkish' side
China's economic quagmire: Beijing still shows no convincing signs of comprehensive support for the economy because it cannot and does not necessarily want to
30. August 2023
The EU Commission survey supports the ECB's current hawkish monetary stance despite slowing economic momentum. Households are upbeat about the labour market
The geopolitical reality is unfolding at the worst possible time. Therefore, the EU needs to show strength on all fronts now and not tomorrow
29. August 2023
Macroeconomic and Political Update Web Presentation
German households are slowly starting to fear the risk of unemployment despite significant wage increases, but the fear is still far from the levels seen in 2008
28. August 2023
Eurozone contraction: The ECB needs to clean up after two crises because there was a lack of timely action following the Great Recession
25. August 2023
Podcast interview with the President of the EU Chamber in China, Jens Eskelund: Lack of action from the Chinese leadership adds to insecurity [Language: Danish]
Germany: The IFO survey shows signs of the 'Perfect Storm', but the ECB needs to see higher unemployment to end the tightening process
A brief summary of opinions expressed by Jens Eskelund, President of the EU Chamber in China, in today's podcast interview
24. August 2023
France: Insee's business survey indicates declining employment expectations - but households do not see a high risk of becoming unemployed
23. August 2023
USA: Existing Home Sales report underscores the big difference to 2008. The Federal Reserve has a tough task, as fiscal policymakers need to focus on geopolitical risks
22. August 2023
As expected, Beijing disappoints the financial market due to 'well-meaning' but ill-timed policy intentions. Stubbornness can hit the economy hard
21. August 2023
Germany: Factory gate deflation will not change the ECB's monetary stance - even as Beijing's stimulus measures undershoot expectations
18. August 2023
How will China's economic crisis impact inflation in the West?
17. August 2023
USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey shows the challenges facing the Federal Reserve - and its task is far from over
16. August 2023
China's housing market shows no signs of relief. The 'core leader' can forget all about military ambitions without a dynamic and strong economy
Britain: In the midst of a demographic hurricane, inflation will be a recurring issue all over Europe
15. August 2023
The point of no return: Russia and China intensify military cooperation. European politicians, companies, and investors are in the midst of a dangerous geopolitical paradigm shift
A paralysed Beijing reacts reluctantly to economic headwinds because there is a growing fear of more than just a cyclical problem. The answer is more 'Xinomics'
11. August 2023
China's bank lending statistics are yet another blow to Xi Jinping's leadership. There is not much room for many more policy mistakes
10. August 2023
USA: The easy part of 'controlling inflation' will soon be over. The ingredients to create a new inflation leg are present and gaining momentum
Britain: The RICS housing survey shows the complex challenges facing central banks. House prices plunge, and rents increase
9. August 2023
China: 'De-risking' is just another word for 'decoupling' invented in Europe to avoid even more anger in Beijing'. Xi Jinping's next U-turn around the corner?
Central Banks on a tightrope: Why lowering their guard is not an option in an environment of aggressive fiscal spending and demographic headwinds
8. August 2023
USA: The NFIB small business sentiment survey shows tentative signs of bouncing back - but from a low level
China's foreign trade plunges. 'It is the economy, stupid'
4. August 2023
US Employment Report in July: The labour shortage problem will persist in 2024. The bond market needs to adjust the yield curve
Germany: Rising industrial orders in June do not change a grim outlook for the economy. The political centre needs to get its act together, but political disarray prevails
3. August 2023
France: A looming fiscal crisis in the West finally gets the attention of the financial market, but there will be no 'cutting corners' this time
2. August 2023
A short note on why the downgrading of the US credit rating is not an isolated phenomenon but could be a foreboding reality for several EU member states
Beijing sees spies everywhere: Another warning for foreign companies in China?
1. August 2023
USA: ISM manufacturing index shows no signs yet of a rebound, but a 'recovery' is just around the corner, supported by the Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act
Eurozone labour market: This time is markedly different although the difference is still ignored by the bond market
31. July 2023
Germany's economic overhaul: The monetary consequences of a German 'recovery plan'. Without stimulus, the political centre will disappear
