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19. October 2018
US existing home sales: Higher interest rates create headwinds in the housing market, but the affordability index is expected to stabilise because of higher wages
China trip
China: Q3 GDP growth in line with market expectations, but the risk of a significant growth slowdown in H1 is high - tighter capital control measures could impact emerging markets, in particular
18. October 2018
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey continues to paint a picture of a strong economy - the employment index increased
Japan: Exports show the first decline since 2016 - The BoJ no longer walks as it talks
17. October 2018
US housing starts-permits report disappoints as higher bond yields put a drag on mortgage applications
(Corrected) China: Social financing jumps in September boosted by a change in the PBoCs calculation
Chinese holdings of US Treasuries decline - but Beijing is not (cannot) 'weaponise' its holdings of US assets - The divide is, however, irreversible
16. October 2018
USA: Manufacturing output is forecast to accelerate going into Q1-2019
Germany: ZEW sentiment index falls sharply in October as investors eat humble pie
Britain: Wage inflation hits the highest level since 2009 - the economy shows classic 'late-cycle' signs as the 'costs of expansion' are on the rise
China: Moderate inflation in September, but 'actual' inflation pressure is on the rise, which poses a risk to the new policy of easing
15. October 2018
USA: Weak retail sales headline number, but the retail control number heralds strong GDP growth in Q3
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey continues to show robust manufacturing growth, but service sentiment declines sharply - 'front-loading' of foreign trade poses a risk to H1-2019 growth
Bavarian state election: 'It is not the economy - Dummkopf' - Hessen election could trigger a CDU revolt against Merkel
12. October 2018
USA: UoM consumer sentiment index stays at an elevated level - The Fed is forced to move monetary policy from 'accommodative' to 'slightly restrictive' even if president Trump diagnoses such a policy as 'crazy'
Euro-zone: 'Moderate' manufacturing output in 2018, but there are clouds on the horizon - Berlin makes significant cuts to the 2018 and 2019 growth forecast
China: Strong trade report shows visible signs of 'frontloading growth' - Beijing will still add more stimulus to the economy
11. October 2018
A short note on China: Frontloading could lead to significant growth moderation in H1-2019 - More anecdotal evidence of possible oversupply in the housing market
The Federal Reserve Chairman is not crazy, but one sometimes wonders whether.....
10. October 2018
USA: Stable PPI inflation in September - but real bond yields are too low considering strong and accelerating growth and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet contraction
Italy: Industrial output declines by less than expected in August - but this does not change the fact that Rome faces an uncertain future with few policy options left
Japan: Machinery orders jump as the economy is running out of idle capacity, but the 'Diffusion Index' tells a different story for H1-2019
9. October 2018
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey shows no signs of slowing demand for workers - The share of companies raising wages hits a record high
Germany: The August trade report still reflects an economy running out of capacity - export data surprisingly weak as 'front-loading' was expected
8. October 2018
Germany: Capacity problems put a lid on manufacturing output - Trump's 'veto-trade-deals' pose an increasing risk to European exporters
China cutting banks' reserve requirement will reinforce downward pressure on the yuan against the US-dollar - The risk of a 'global split' is on the rise!
5. October 2018
USA: A mixed employment report in September will not change the fact that the Fed is on a firm path of monetary tightening - Unemployment rate hits lowest level since 1969 
Japan: Manufacturing indicators show strong demand but weak output - Workers' real cash earnings are again on the decline
Germany: Industrial orders bounce back in August, but inflation at the factory gates gains momentum
4. October 2018
A short note on yesterday's robust ISM service and soaring bond yields in USA and Japan
3. October 2018
USA: Service ISM index hits an all-time high in September indicating growth higher than 4% - the employment index skyrockets - overheating?
USA: The current economic expansion is at a crossroad - Demand for workers increases at the same time as supply is shrinking
Euro-zone: Soft retail sales in August - private consumption faces headwinds in 2019 
Turkey: CPI inflation skyrockets to 25%, as Erdogan undermines the impact of monetary tightening
2. October 2018
Brazil: The risk of a 'double-dip' is on the rise
Euro-zone: Higher energy prices boost inflation at the factory gates - significant up-revision of the July report
NAFTA2 - The world is headed towards 'managed trade' dictated by the strongest military powers
1. October 2018
USA: ISM survey continues to paint a robust outlook for the manufacturing survey - inflation pressure declines in September
Turkey faces a deep recession - and President Erdogan has no reliable friends to help him - not even in Berlin
Euro-zone unemployment rate hits the lowest level since November 2008, as signs of a labour shortage gain momentum
Spain: Inflation expectations at the highest level since 2012 make an inroad into households' real purchasing power
Japan: Quarterly Tankan survey disappoints, but it remains a harbinger of robust growth in H2 and a very tight labour market
China's PMI surveys: September-October growth may still be robust, but the risk of significant Q1 weakness is on the rise
28. September 2018
China: Stimulus measures hit the shores before the negative impact of the trade war
German unemployment rate hitting the lowest level since 1981 could prove a liability to Italy
Japan: Industrial output report is much better than outlined by the headline number, but the economy is on a crossroad
27. September 2018
USA: The best forward-looking indicators herald robust durable goods orders, but the Goldilocks scenario of 'strong growth-low inflation' has changed to a scenario of 'lower growth-higher inflation and higher interest rates'
Germany: Inflation hits the highest level since 2012 - domestic factors will drive inflation higher as the 'labour reserve' is running out of workers
EU survey shows clear signs of accelerating inflation pressure partly by courtesy of ECB President Draghi - Ironically, inflation is now the biggest risk to 2019 growth
A general overview of the global macroeconomic and political situation
26. September 2018
USA: Solid new home sales in August, but significantly higher bond yields will change the environment in H1-2019
Britain: No signs of softer consumer spending after robust summer sales
France and Germany: Dark clouds on the horizon spell trouble for the EU
25. September 2018
USA: Consumer confidence hits the highest level since September 2000 - the share of households seeing 'plentiful-of-jobs' jumped in September
USA: Case-Shiller home price index continues to show steady increases - but the risk of higher mortgage bond yields is on the rise
Germany: External factors boost inflation pressure - but wage pressure is building as well
24. September 2018
Germany: IFO survey shows domestic tailwinds prevail over the 'potential risk' from a trade war
20. September 2018
+++There will be no updates on September 21+++
USA: Existing home sales report still heralds robust price increases in 2018, but headwinds from higher bond yields in 2019
US Philadelphia Fed survey underscores why the Federal Reserve should not hesitate to raise policy rates at a faster pace
Britain: The case for faster monetary tightening is building - Strong retail sales in August
'The world today has learned its lessons, which will prevent the next crisis to erupt.' Really?
19. September 2018
US housing starts jump in August, but wage increases will not be enough to mitigate the negative impact of higher bond yields in 2019
The last note on Trump's import tariffs - 'China is not the Soviet Union in the 1980s!'
Britain - Consumer prices jump in August: Households' inflation expectations are on the rise - Is a major bond market sell-off in the pipeline?
Japan: Strong domestic demand and slowing exports inflate the trade deficit - BoJ sees no reasons to withdraw ultra-loose monetary policy
18. September 2018
A short note on Trump's import tariffs decision: The trade war has reached a point of no return - President Xi risks losing face if Beijing makes a compromise
17. September 2018
China: House prices continue riding high on the trade war, tight capital control and the rest of the world shutting down on Chinese investments
14. September 2018
USA: UoM consumer sentiment index jumps in August as all engines are gaining momentum
USA: Weak retail sales report still indicates strong Q3 GDP growth as the July number was revised up - Federal Reserve remains on track of tightening 
EU: Labour cost inflation is slowly on the rise in the EMU and accelerating in the Euro-zone's 'labour pool' countries, Eastern Europe
China: Weak fixed capital investments, industrial output and retail sales in August -Buoyant residential construction boosts the risk of creating a significant oversupply of housing in 2019 - Beijing remains biased towards easing
13. September 2018
USA: Consumer price inflation was benign in August - Nonetheless, a tight labour market will change the picture in the coming months
Turkish central bank defies Erdogan by raising policy rates aggressively - or did Mr Erdogan just tacitly accept the decision?
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey continues to show robust growth despite a sharp decline in the manufacturing index - PM Abe reconciles with more 'reliable' friends in Asia than in Washington
Survey: The impact of the USA-China trade war from the point of US companies with production in China
12. September 2018
USA: Benign producer price inflation report does not change the outlook of higher domestic inflation pressure in 2019
China: Monetary aggregates are growing too slowly considering a more hostile global environment -  Beijing will soon provide more stimulus to the economy
Italy: Soon, Mr Salvini could be 'forced' to ignore Brussels and boost fiscal spending - Industrial output drops in July
China: Anecdotal evidence of significantly slower growth intensifies - Beijing raises domestic barriers to foreign companies
11. September 2018
Germany: Investor sentiment bounces back, but dark clouds from global trade remain on the horizon
Britain: A tight labour market boosts wages at a faster-than-expected pace
USA: NFIB small business survey shows companies are screaming for workers, who are not there! All indicators point towards faster wage increases
10. September 2018
Japan: The headline index in the Economy Watcher Survey bounces back in August - Very strong corporate spending boosts Q2 growth
China: The August trade report still shows no signs of collapsing growth
Sweden: The election result provides the political establishment one more chance to adjust policy - but the window of opportunity is closing
7. September 2018
USA: Employment report shows a sharp acceleration in wages as the gap between supply and demand for workers is on the rise
China: Foreign exchange reserves are stable as monetary policymakers in Beijing handle 'crisis' more prudently than in the past
Germany: The July trade report is more evidence of an economy facing several capacity constraints - but this will not help Berlin in the trade confrontation with President Trump
6. September 2018
USA: ISM service index bounces back sharply in August indicating annualised growth close to 3.5%
Brazil: Encouraging news as plunging currency fails to impact inflation, although this provides only short-term relief
USA: The gap between the ADP-number and the ISM employment indexes shows that companies are struggling to fill new job offers
Germany: Industrial orders take yet another beating in July - growth to rebound in H2, but significant uncertainty about the 2019 growth outlook
5. September 2018
USA: The trade deficit with China hits a new record high - Trump's trade policy will lead to higher deficit and higher inflation
Euro-zone retail sales: Inflation puts a drag on private consumption - Is there a case for stronger wage increases in the Euro-zone?
China: Caixin PMI service index declines to the lowest level since October 2017; mainland exporters are targetting Europe
Australia: Strong Q2 GDP report will not change a downbeat outlook for the AUD
4. September 2018
USA: Manufacturing ISM index jumps close to the highest level since 1984; employment and orders indexes are up
Euro-zone: The short and long-term inflation risk is on the rise; the case for a 'leftist' fiscal expansion gains momentum