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22. June 2018
Is the White House having second thoughts about the trade war?
21. June 2018
USA: The regional Philadelphia Fed index plunges in June, although this was partially compensated by a strong increase in the capital expenditure index
French business sentiment remains, so far, unscathed despite increasing global turmoil - French voters 'appear' to have accepted Macron's long-term policy approach
China: Market talk about significant RRR cut after the publication of a PBoC working paper - 'moderate easing' is likely
20. June 2018
USA: Low supply puts a drag on existing home sales; higher prices and mortgage yield are having an impact as well, according to NAR
Manufacturing sentiment bounces back sharply, but Britain is in a lose-lose situation, which will put a drag on growth in 2019 and beyond
Germany: Producer price inflation gains momentum, but Draghi is still able to transform 'hawkish statement' into 'dovish message'
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey continues to herald robust growth going into the third quarter, although this is still in sharp contrast to other surveys
19. June 2018
US housing starts: No decisive signs yet of significant headwinds in the pipeline although signs of serious capacity constraints - Trump's moment of hubris
The CSU would become the second-largest party in Germany if it decides to walk alone - Merkel on 'mission impossible' as Italy's League becomes the largest party in opinion polls (29%)
18. June 2018
The Trump Doctrine, 'America First and Alone', could have dramatic consequences
15. June 2018
USA: UoM consumer sentiment index increases propelled by a steep jump in the current conditions index; households are exposed to tailwinds, but inflation expectations are on the rise
USA: Regional Empire State manufacturing index jumps in June reinforcing the case of a quite strong growth leg in H2
A short note on a rapidly developing political crisis in Germany
China: Strong gains in house prices, but supply is increasing sharply -'Nervous' warning from CBIRC official
14. June 2018
USA: Strong May retail sales report heralds robust Q2 GDP report; buoyant growth outlook for H2
ECB Decision: 'Dovish tapering' in an environment of slowing growth is in sharp contrast to the US Federal Reserve
Britain: Retail sales bounce back strongly in May supported by higher real disposable income and a buoyant labour market
China: Retail sales and investments slow considerably in May, but a strong rebound in property market supply is closing rapidly 'the gap' to demand
13. June 2018
USA: PPI inflation hits the highest level since 2011 - Several factors are now adding upward pressure on inflation at the factory gates
Euro-zone: Industrial output falling sharply in April complicates the monetary task of the ECB
12. June 2018
USA: Inflation continues to increase; the best leading price indicators herald higher inflation in H2
China: Shadow bank lending plunges in May, as the PBoC faces complicated task in H2
Germany: ZEW headline index plunges to the lowest level since 2012 at the same time as US sentiment indicators herald growth acceleration
USA: The NFIB small business sentiment index jumps to the highest level since 1984; 'good-time-to-spend' and 'sales' indexes jump
A short note on the outcome of the USA-North-Korea summit - So far, the deal is no different from Obama's Iran deal
11. June 2018
China: Moderate consumer price inflation in May, but the closure of polluting industries is creating bottlenecks in several industries
Japan: Machinery orders jump in April - but the outlook remains cloudy
The tragicomic outcome of the G7-meeting could turn into the beginning of the end of the transatlantic alliance - Lindsey Graham: 'I am not so sure McCain is right that a majority of Americans back free trade'
8. June 2018
Brazil: Falling victim to 'the mother of all liquidity tightening' - but inflation remains benign
France and Germany: Manufacturing output declines sharply in April - Outlook remains upbeat in France but weak in Germany - 'Political' ECB creates more fuel to EU tensions
China: Imports jump in May - Beijing is more than willing to allow a trade deficit in the coming years, but this requires an 'open-minded' Washington
7. June 2018
China presentation - An update of major trends on the mainland
Germany: Industrial orders plunge in April - The country will prove vulnerable in 2019 as Berlin has left the economy unprepared for the future
Japan: The Diffusion Index continues to herald industrial output contraction in Q3 despite bouncing back in April
6. June 2018
USA: Lower-than-expected trade deficit in April, but the politically sensitive deficit with China and the EU hit a new record high
Spain: Disappointing industrial output report does not change positive short-term growth outlook for the economy - EU budget manager to become the next economy minister
ECB's possible change of its QE-program and the connection with an 'unfriendly' government in Rome; A short note on the US dollar and the euro
Australia: Strong Q1 GDP report will not change the monetary stance of the RBA
5. June 2018
USA: Service ISM index bounces back sharply - inflation pressure continues to increase
Euro-zone: Disappointing consumer spending statistics show no signs yet of a rebound in growth as higher inflation erodes households' real spending power
China - Caixin PMI service index heralds steady growth - Beijing prepares for the unavoidable 'confrontation' with the United States
4. June 2018
Spain is not yet matters of importance from the EMU's point of view - but this could change as Berlin's fiscal stance sees declining support in the EU
Turkey: Skyrocketing inflation will force the central bank to raise policy rates shortly before the presidential and parliamentary elections humiliating President Erdogan
1. June 2018
USA: Manufacturing ISM survey shows a new growth leg is in the pipeline - Inflation pressure remains at an elevated level
USA: Robust May employment report combined with increasing wage inflation - The Federal Reserve remains on a path of monetary normalisation
Sweden: PMI surveys still herald steady growth, but excellent economic performance has not prevented the far-right Sweden Democrats from gaining 20 percent in opinion polls
The Italian Crisis is yet another reminder of an 'institutionally' weak EMU - a sense of crisis will keep coming back
31. May 2018
Euro-zone: Consumer prices jump propelled by a weaker euro and higher energy prices - The unemployment rate declines to the lowest level since 2008
Japan: Yet another disappointing industrial output report - leading indicators picture ambiguous outlook
China: The leading national PMI surveys herald steady growth, as Beijing succeeds in 'fine-tuning' the economy
30. May 2018
USA: Headline growth revised down in the first revision of the Q1 GDP report, but the details are more positive than in the preliminary report
EU survey still heralds robust growth outlook and a steep jump in households' inflation expectations
Germany is the main beneficiary of a 'simmering' Euro-zone crisis - unemployment rate hits a new record low in May
Japan: Consumer confidence improves as the yen appreciates - but the stock market is at risk because of more global headwinds in the pipeline
29. May 2018
US consumer confidence stays close to a record high - the share of respondents seeing 'plentiful-of-jobs' skyrocketed in May - The Federal Reserve remains on the same path
Brazil - It is difficult to hide when a shrinking interest rate differential to the United States has left the currency vulnerable to external shocks and internal skirmishes
Italy is just yet another reminder that national elections are a risk to the entire EMU - this is, of course, not sustainable in the long run
Turkish central bank' firefighting efforts will not be enough as President Erdogan could soon set a new fire
28. May 2018
Spain plunges into yet another EMU crisis, but there is a significant difference between Spain and Italy
Italy: There is no reason to applaud the President's decision - this could instead propel support to the populist parties - Impeachment on the agenda
25. May 2018
USA: Robust 'core' durable goods orders, but President Trump's trade policy deflates corporate spending plans
Germany: IFO survey shows that the 'downturn in business sentiment has stopped' due to domestic demand - but the economy is vulnerable to global headwinds
24. May 2018
USA: Higher mortgage yields put a lid on existing home sales and prices; Trump cancels meeting with North Korean leader
Germany: The economy is riding an 'old wave'
Japan: Reuters Tankan service sentiment hits a new all-time high, which is in sharp contrast to other surveys
France: Manufacturing sentiment stays at an elevated level, but service sentiment declines sharply; the 'Macron Story' remains intact
23. May 2018
US new home sales remain robust considering mortgage yields are now at the highest level since 2011
22. May 2018
Data Protection -'s personal data policy, GDPR
Britain: CBI industrial orders index plunges to the lowest level since September 2016 - but this only looks like a 'growth pause'
Beijing is overwhelmed by the number of 'free lunches' offered by the Trump administration - Smart Chinese policymakers are outmanoeuvring the White House
Italy and Europe: The populist parties are not winning, the political establishment is losing despite a recovering European economy
18. May 2018
Germany - Higher energy prices boost inflation at the factory gates; but this will not change ECB President Draghi's dovish stance, at least not yet
17. May 2018
USA: Very strong Philadelphia Fed survey shows no signs of growth slow-down in 2018, as the orders index hits the highest level since 1973; but capital spending plans continue to weaken
Japan: Machinery orders show no signs of a self-propelled economic recovery
16. May 2018
USA: Strong industrial output report, but the outlook is less buoyant compared to a few months ago; but no signs of excessively high inventories
An update of 'The case for a stronger US dollar'
China: House prices gain momentum, as there are tentative signs that Beijing is biased towards reversing tightening measures
Japan shows the first economic contraction since 2015; a stronger USD could prove to be a mixed blessing for the economy
15. May 2018
USA: April retail sales report on track to show a solid bounce in Q2 private consumption - Empire States index recovers
Britain - The economy shows classic late-cycle signs - wage increases close to the highest level since 2009
Germany - Investor sentiment stabilises as President Trump tones down trade rhetoric - but growth expectations remain downbeat
China: Slower property sector activity puts a drag on overall growth in April - Trump makes ZTE U-turn to 'save Chinese jobs' and Midwest voters
14. May 2018
Dovish Federal Reserve rhetoric mitigates tentative signs of emerging market turbulence in Argentina, Malaysia and Turkey
Iran nuclear deal - Trump 'solves' one problem by making an even larger problem
By Invitation: China's global net of silk roads - globalisation version 2.0
11. May 2018
USA - Political skirmishes and a higher oil price failing to dent consumer confidence keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise policy rates three or four times in 2018
China - Monetary statistics continue to slow, as Beijing is still targetting 'excessive' credit expansion
9. May 2018
There will be no updates on May 10 due to a public holiday in Denmark
USA: Benign PPI inflation report provides no reason for the Federal Reserve to tighten faster-than-planned - but inflation pressure will increase in H2
Spain: There are no signs of any headwinds on the horizon - at least, 'potential headwinds' do not seem to harm the economy
Japan: At first glance, nominal cash earnings increasing at the fastest rate since 2003 look promising - but imported inflation will erode households' real purchasing power in H2
Iran nuclear deal - Trump 'solves' one problem by making an even larger problem - The White House continues to boost Chinese global influence
8. May 2018
US small business sentiment stays at an elevated level despite Trump's eagerness to fight a trade war with China - The case for higher policy rates and US dollar remains valid
Britain - Halifax house price index falls sharply in April despite a tight labour market and a positive trend in real wages
Germany - Trade surplus increases at the same time as the new Finance Minister 'advises ministries demanding more funds to live within their means' - Berlin could soon be targetted by the White House
China - Strong rebound in exports and imports - but underlying details show tentative signs of slower growth ahead
7. May 2018
China records a current account deficit for the first time since 2001 - but Beijing does not plan to make any significant concessions in the trade negotiations
Germany - A sharp decline in foreign demand puts a significant drag on industrial orders