26. September 2023
Germany: The probability of a huge fiscal stimulus package increases as the 'IFO message' transforms into facts on the ground
25. September 2023
Inflation: Why the focus should shift 'permanently' from inflation to real bond yields
22. September 2023
Is the EU acting according to its size? Paris-Berlin aims for a 'multi-speed Europe'
21. September 2023
US Philadelphia Fed survey underscores a complex environment for the Federal Reserve. Inflation pressure increases, but the headline index declines
France's leading business survey reflects ECB's dilemma: The 'labour shortage problem' will not go away despite slower growth
20. September 2023
The Federal Reserve will likely choose 'unchanged' - and 'higher rates for longer'. The monetary normalisation process has been a success despite the usual grumbles
19. September 2023
Germany: Bundesbank warns about too slow de-risking from China, as 'deindustrialisation' prevails
18. September 2023
Taiwan-China: European investors and companies should prepare for a Chinese 'blockade of Taiwan' shortly after the US election
15. September 2023
China's economic data shows a hint of life. The problems remain the same, but investors might expect a different solution than what Xi Jinping has in mind
Podcast interview with Rhodium Group, Washington: Beijing has no fiscal leeway. What does it mean for Xi Jinping's China?
14. September 2023
ECB hikes policy rates again, navigating a different reality than 2008
13. September 2023
US inflation report: The looming risk of a long-term inflation problem
The risk of a new inflationary leg in the Eurozone and the United States remains significant
4. September 2023
There will be no updates on September 4-8 and 11-12 due to holiday
1. September 2023
US employment report: Monetary policy is working - but the task of the Federal Reserve will be challenged by demographics and geopolitics - and politicians who are not lending a helping hand
31. August 2023
Revisiting monetary policy: Why central banks prefer to err on the 'hawkish' side
China's economic quagmire: Beijing still shows no convincing signs of comprehensive support for the economy because it cannot and does not necessarily want to
30. August 2023
The EU Commission survey supports the ECB's current hawkish monetary stance despite slowing economic momentum. Households are upbeat about the labour market
The geopolitical reality is unfolding at the worst possible time. Therefore, the EU needs to show strength on all fronts now and not tomorrow
29. August 2023
Macroeconomic and Political Update Web Presentation
German households are slowly starting to fear the risk of unemployment despite significant wage increases, but the fear is still far from the levels seen in 2008
28. August 2023
Eurozone contraction: The ECB needs to clean up after two crises because there was a lack of timely action following the Great Recession
25. August 2023
Germany: The IFO survey shows signs of the 'Perfect Storm', but the ECB needs to see higher unemployment to end the tightening process
A brief summary of opinions expressed by Jens Eskelund, President of the EU Chamber in China, in today's podcast interview
Podcast interview with the President of the EU Chamber in China, Jens Eskelund: Ambiguous signalling and lack of action by the Chinese leadership add to insecurity about the outlook for China [Language: Danish]
24. August 2023
France: Insee's business survey indicates declining employment expectations - but households do not see a high risk of becoming unemployed
23. August 2023
USA: Existing Home Sales report underscores the big difference to 2008. The Federal Reserve has a tough task, as fiscal policymakers need to focus on geopolitical risks
22. August 2023
As expected, Beijing disappoints the financial market due to 'well-meaning' but ill-timed policy intentions. Stubbornness can hit the economy hard
21. August 2023
Germany: Factory gate deflation will not change the ECB's monetary stance - even as Beijing's stimulus measures undershoot expectations
18. August 2023
How will China's economic crisis impact inflation in the West?
17. August 2023
USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey shows the challenges facing the Federal Reserve - and its task is far from over
16. August 2023
China's housing market shows no signs of relief. The 'core leader' can forget all about military ambitions without a dynamic and strong economy
Britain: In the midst of a demographic hurricane, inflation will be a recurring issue all over Europe
15. August 2023
The point of no return: Russia and China intensify military cooperation. European politicians, companies, and investors are in the midst of a dangerous geopolitical paradigm shift
A paralysed Beijing reacts reluctantly to economic headwinds because there is a growing fear of more than just a cyclical problem. The answer is more 'Xinomics'
11. August 2023
China's bank lending statistics are yet another blow to Xi Jinping's leadership. There is not much room for many more policy mistakes
10. August 2023
USA: The easy part of 'controlling inflation' will soon be over. The ingredients to create a new inflation leg are present and gaining momentum
Britain: The RICS housing survey shows the complex challenges facing central banks. House prices plunge, and rents increase
9. August 2023
China: 'De-risking' is just another word for 'decoupling' invented in Europe to avoid even more anger in Beijing'. Xi Jinping's next U-turn around the corner?
Central Banks on a tightrope: Why lowering their guard is not an option in an environment of aggressive fiscal spending and demographic headwinds
8. August 2023
USA: The NFIB small business sentiment survey shows tentative signs of bouncing back - but from a low level
China's foreign trade plunges. 'It is the economy, stupid'
4. August 2023
US Employment Report in July: The labour shortage problem will persist in 2024. The bond market needs to adjust the yield curve
Germany: Rising industrial orders in June do not change a grim outlook for the economy. The political centre needs to get its act together, but political disarray prevails
3. August 2023
France: A looming fiscal crisis in the West finally gets the attention of the financial market, but there will be no 'cutting corners' this time
2. August 2023
A short note on why the downgrading of the US credit rating is not an isolated phenomenon but could be a foreboding reality for several EU member states
Beijing sees spies everywhere: Another warning for foreign companies in China?
1. August 2023
USA: ISM manufacturing index shows no signs yet of a rebound, but a 'recovery' is just around the corner, supported by the Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act
Eurozone labour market: This time is markedly different although the difference is still ignored by the bond market
31. July 2023
Germany's economic overhaul: The monetary consequences of a German 'recovery plan'. Without stimulus, the political centre will disappear
China: Weak PMI signals persist. A reluctant Beijing to unveil a huge economic stimulus plan today - but not the same as in 2008
28. July 2023
Eurozone survey: Households' inflation expectations decline. Optimism for the job market persists despite zero economic growth
The Bank of Japan lets the genie out of the bottle by allowing more ten-year bond yield flexibility - adding upward pressure on global bond yields
27. July 2023
ECB lifts key interest rates despite clear signs of slower growth. Does this make sense?
The US Federal Reserve lifts policy rates to the highest since 2001. The new minimum policy rate will be significantly higher than in the past
26. July 2023
Eurozone: The real test of the ECB has just started. Will policymakers maintain the long-term focus?
25. July 2023
USA: More evidence of another growth leg, according to the Conference Board consumer survey
China: New measures to stimulate the economy: A desperate turn or a calculated manoeuvre? Are private entrepreneurs and foreigners willing to bite the hook?
Germany: The IFO survey casts a shadow on the economy. Soon a new party could pull even more votes from the centre - but this time from the far left
21. July 2023
Podcast interview with Marlene Wind, Special Advisor for Josep Borrell: The need for a strong and united EU is greater than ever, but is it possible? [language: Danish]
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey underscores the probability of another 'growth' leg. How does this align with an inverted yield curve?
20. July 2023
A steep decline in Taiwan's export orders and South Korea's trade figures show a gloomy economy. China's economy needs more than words
France: Insee survey shows no signs of an upcoming recession. The labour market is tight, and the fiscal deficit is on the rise
19. July 2023
Britain: Inflation is easing, but Prime Minister Sunak has let the genie out of the bottle
18. July 2023
China's looming economic challenges: Will Xi Jinping continue to disregard a significant risk of asset price deflation?
17. July 2023
Podcast interview with commodity expert Ole S. Hansen: Europe - Is the energy supply secured for the coming winter?
14. July 2023
USA: A strong University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is more evidence of another 'growth leg' coming - in an economy without idle workers
The unusual monetary policy of the Bank of Japan amid global tightening, private consumption and 1989-1990
13. July 2023
Germany's complicated relationship with China and Russia in an environment with AfD now at 22% and with 'moral backing' in Beijing
China's declining trade figures are a reflection of mounting challenges. Mexico is now the largest supplier of the United States
12. July 2023
USA: Falling inflation will not change the monetary stance of the Federal Reserve, considering a historically tight labour market
A short note on the NATO summit in Vilnius: Geopolitics leave little room for ECB manoeuvring despite falling inflation
11. July 2023
Spain: Households feel good, but the voters could move the country significantly to the far right on July 23, as 'Spanish values are at risk'
Britain needs more than just luck to escape the long-term consequences of an irresponsible fiscal and monetary policy since 2008
10. July 2023
China's deflationary problem: A consequence of policy choices. 'Young people need not be sent to the countryside to understand the world'
7. July 2023
USA: Higher wage inflation and weaker-than-expected employment growth in June - or maybe companies cannot find qualified workers
Central banks and 'robust' house prices: The difference compared to 2008 makes monetary policy far more challenging
6. July 2023
US ISM service survey: The Federal Reserve is forced to err on the hawkish side due to a different environment compared to 2008 and the 1970s
Germany: Military equipment demand helps boost industrial orders, but the outlook remains grim. AfD [21%] could soon become the largest party. Is a CDU-CSU-AfD coalition possible in the future?
5. July 2023
Eurozone: Disinflation continues, but the ECB focuses on the labour market. Germany needs 1.5 million immigrants per year to maintain the size of the workforce, according to 'wise men'
China's 'solution' to the economic challenges is more ideology and nationalism - in sharp contrast to the financial crisis in 2008
3. July 2023
USA: ISM survey shows no signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector. Disinflation intensifies
France: Paris is running out of fiscal ammo as the budget deficit moves closer to the pandemic level
The stock market: Artificial Intelligence expectations and falling headline inflation versus inverted yield curves
28. June 2023
France: Insee consumer survey shows a tighter labour market in the coming months despite slower growth. Wages are rising
There will be no updates on June 29-30
Eurozone: ECB's Monetary Development Report shows further monetary weakness and slowing loan demand
Germany: An unpredictable future and political chaos in Berlin cause consumer sentiment to drop despite short-term tailwinds
27. June 2023
USA: The yield curve says recession, but the economy has not 'surrendered' yet. New home sales skyrocket in May - and consumer confidence bounces back
A historically right-wing shift in Germany and the rest of the EU will have consequences in all areas
26. June 2023
IFO survey: Germany faces a double-dip recession as geopolitics pulls the carpet under the economy. AfD sees more gain in the latest opinion poll. Also, a short note on Russia
23. June 2023
Britain: The renewed surge in consumer confidence indicates, to no small extent, that fiscal and monetary policymakers are not in control of the inflation situation
Japan: Core inflation hits the highest since the early 1980s - but BOJ does not believe inflation has gained a firm foothold
22. June 2023
France: Insee survey shows weak growth. The labour shortage problem remains the same as one year ago. Higher ECB policy rates for longer
21. June 2023
The Bank of England is slowly learning the lesson: More tightening is the only option in an economy running out of workers
20. June 2023
China's changing social landscape requires younger leadership better in touch with the people
Germany: Falling factory gates inflation is not a surprise. The ECB will stay the course of bringing policy rates and bond yields back to the 'old normal'
19. June 2023
USA-China rivalry: 'Two steps backwards, one step forward - followed by another two steps backwards'
16. June 2023
USA: UoM survey shows households benefiting from lower inflation and higher wages. Are there tentative signs of a new growth leg in Q4?
Eurozone: According to the ECB, wage pressure remains far too high for comfort. It will become worse in 2024 - with or without Artificial Intelligence
