Forgot login
Please fill in your e-mail adress below. We will send you a link with details on recovering your account.

 

Click image to close window.
20. September 2018
+++There will be no updates on September 21+++
USA: Existing home sales report still heralds robust price increases in 2018, but headwinds from higher bond yields in 2019
US Philadelphia Fed survey underscores why the Federal Reserve should not hesitate to raise policy rates at a faster pace
Britain: The case for faster monetary tightening is building - Strong retail sales in August
'The world today has learned its lessons, which will prevent the next crisis to erupt.' Really?
19. September 2018
US housing starts jump in August, but wage increases will not be enough to mitigate the negative impact of higher bond yields in 2019
The last note on Trump's import tariffs - 'China is not the Soviet Union in the 1980s!'
Britain - Consumer prices jump in August: Households' inflation expectations are on the rise - Is a major bond market sell-off in the pipeline?
Japan: Strong domestic demand and slowing exports inflate the trade deficit - BoJ sees no reasons to withdraw ultra-loose monetary policy
18. September 2018
A short note on Trump's import tariffs decision: The trade war has reached a point of no return - President Xi risks losing face if Beijing makes a compromise
17. September 2018
China: House prices continue riding high on the trade war, tight capital control and the rest of the world shutting down on Chinese investments
14. September 2018
USA: UoM consumer sentiment index jumps in August as all engines are gaining momentum
USA: Weak retail sales report still indicates strong Q3 GDP growth as the July number was revised up - Federal Reserve remains on track of tightening 
EU: Labour cost inflation is slowly on the rise in the EMU and accelerating in the Euro-zone's 'labour pool' countries, Eastern Europe
China: Weak fixed capital investments, industrial output and retail sales in August -Buoyant residential construction boosts the risk of creating a significant oversupply of housing in 2019 - Beijing remains biased towards easing
13. September 2018
USA: Consumer price inflation was benign in August - Nonetheless, a tight labour market will change the picture in the coming months
Turkish central bank defies Erdogan by raising policy rates aggressively - or did Mr Erdogan just tacitly accept the decision?
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey continues to show robust growth despite a sharp decline in the manufacturing index - PM Abe reconciles with more 'reliable' friends in Asia than in Washington
Survey: The impact of the USA-China trade war from the point of US companies with production in China
12. September 2018
USA: Benign producer price inflation report does not change the outlook of higher domestic inflation pressure in 2019
China: Monetary aggregates are growing too slowly considering a more hostile global environment -  Beijing will soon provide more stimulus to the economy
Italy: Soon, Mr Salvini could be 'forced' to ignore Brussels and boost fiscal spending - Industrial output drops in July
China: Anecdotal evidence of significantly slower growth intensifies - Beijing raises domestic barriers to foreign companies
11. September 2018
Germany: Investor sentiment bounces back, but dark clouds from global trade remain on the horizon
Britain: A tight labour market boosts wages at a faster-than-expected pace
USA: NFIB small business survey shows companies are screaming for workers, who are not there! All indicators point towards faster wage increases
10. September 2018
Japan: The headline index in the Economy Watcher Survey bounces back in August - Very strong corporate spending boosts Q2 growth
China: The August trade report still shows no signs of collapsing growth
Sweden: The election result provides the political establishment one more chance to adjust policy - but the window of opportunity is closing
7. September 2018
USA: Employment report shows a sharp acceleration in wages as the gap between supply and demand for workers is on the rise
China: Foreign exchange reserves are stable as monetary policymakers in Beijing handle 'crisis' more prudently than in the past
Germany: The July trade report is more evidence of an economy facing several capacity constraints - but this will not help Berlin in the trade confrontation with President Trump
6. September 2018
USA: ISM service index bounces back sharply in August indicating annualised growth close to 3.5%
Brazil: Encouraging news as plunging currency fails to impact inflation, although this provides only short-term relief
USA: The gap between the ADP-number and the ISM employment indexes shows that companies are struggling to fill new job offers
Germany: Industrial orders take yet another beating in July - growth to rebound in H2, but significant uncertainty about the 2019 growth outlook
5. September 2018
USA: The trade deficit with China hits a new record high - Trump's trade policy will lead to higher deficit and higher inflation
Euro-zone retail sales: Inflation puts a drag on private consumption - Is there a case for stronger wage increases in the Euro-zone?
China: Caixin PMI service index declines to the lowest level since October 2017; mainland exporters are targetting Europe
Australia: Strong Q2 GDP report will not change a downbeat outlook for the AUD
4. September 2018
USA: Manufacturing ISM index jumps close to the highest level since 1984; employment and orders indexes are up
Euro-zone: The short and long-term inflation risk is on the rise; the case for a 'leftist' fiscal expansion gains momentum
The first day of the 'Stand Up' movement - Aufstehen will make waves beyond the borders of Germany
3. September 2018
Turkey: CPI and PPI inflation skyrockets in August - Tight monetary policy could provide support to the stock market, but the window of opportunity is closing rapidly
Sweden: PMI index falls sharply - The political establishment in Stockholm and Berlin faces the same questions, but they have no answers
31. August 2018
Euro-zone inflation of 2% could cause significant damage in several European labour markets with only benign wage increases
Japan: The July industrial output report disappoints, but the case for a reversal of BoJ's monetary policy remains strong; tight labour market and real wages increasing at the fastest rate since 1997
Spain: The economy showing signs of slowing and immigration create a dilemma in Madrid; Spain could turn into a hot spot in 2019
Better-than-expected China PMI survey: President Xi is to blame for many of the mainland's current problems, but Beijing has reacted rapidly to the new environment 
30. August 2018
Switzerland: The best leading indicators herald robust growth; inflation is on the rise and severe signs of labour shortage make Swiss interest rates far too low
EU survey raises unpleasant questions, as ultra-loose monetary policy appears to pose the biggest threat to the current economic expansion
South Korea faces more headwinds from a stronger won, a steep decline in consumer confidence and the world turning from 'multilateral' towards 'bilateral'
29. August 2018
US macroeconomic chart-update
Turkey: A sharp decline in the leading economic sentiment index heralds recession in H1-2019; FM Berat Albayrak turns to threaten other countries causing more economic damage
28. August 2018
USA: Consumer confidence skyrockets to the highest level since October 2000
Italy: Tentative signs of lower business and consumer sentiment as ten-year bond yields hit the highest level since 2014, but the immigration problem has been 'solved'
France: Consumer survey sees steep increase in share of households expecting higher unemployment; Environmental minister quits
Beijing is cornered by Trump's trade policy - Mexico-deal setting up a precedent for the rest of the world bodes ill for global trade
27. August 2018
Germany: IFO survey shows a sharp rebound in sentiment across the board as signs of labour shortage become evident all over Europe
24. August 2018
USA: A weak durable goods orders report, but the outlook still heralds steady corporate spending
Euro-zone consumer confidence declines relatively sharply in August as inflation makes an inroad into households' real purchasing power
23. August 2018
USA: The July new home sales report was a disappointment, but it is not a harbinger of recession, at least not yet
Brazil: The October elections have caught the country between a rock and a hard place - The central bank could soon be forced to raise policy rates
France: Business sentiment bounces back - The same applies to President Macron's approval rating making way for the next step in the reform process
Australia could soon move significantly to the right - the outlook for the AUD remains weak
22. August 2018
USA: The low level of unsold homes supports house prices, but it puts a lid on sales
USA: Trumponomics gave away money in anticipation of higher cyclical tax revenues in the future - What if the foundation for this evaporates?
21. August 2018
Britain: CBI industrial survey shows no signs of a slowing economy; the Bank of England is headed towards more interest rate hikes
Trump will soon launch a more aggressive 'intervention' in the foreign exchange market - but Mr Powell will hold the course!
20. August 2018
A short note on a rapidly changing political landscape in Europe: Germany's far-left may soon offer 'the same' immigration policy as the AfD - Europe's political centre is shrinking
China: The trade war and a hostile global environment fuel house prices - Xi Jinping faces severe criticism 'distributed' by government media
Germany: Inflation pressure at the factory gates in July - Chancellor Merkel considering financial support to Ankara could create new tensions in the EU and Berlin
16. August 2018
The failure of Turkey could lead to President Erdogan's downfall – the implications would be significant 
3. August 2018
USA: Service ISM headline index falls sharply, but the employment index jumps, which shows strong labour demand
US trade deficit continues to show increasing deficit with China, as Beijing imposes new tariffs on Washington - PBoC raises reserve requirement for FX settlements
US employment report shows solid job creation if one includes the May and June revisions - moderate wage increases
Turkey is now between a rock and a hard place - hyper-inflation or a deep recession
China: Service and consumer sentiment fall sharply - Beijing is at a decisive crossroad, which could have global ramifications - Nationalism is on the rise
2. August 2018
Euro-zone: Increasing inflation at the factory gates will keep upward pressure on consumer price inflation in H2-2018 and beyond - 'Massive' capacity expansion in the commodity sector?
Switzerland is yet another country, which could soon exit an ultra-loose monetary policy - The world faces synchronised liquidity tightening
1. August 2018
USA: Manufacturing ISM survey disappoints, but the combined ISM indexes remain harbingers of 3.5% annualised growth in H2
USA: ADP Employment Report shows strong job gains in July - Labour shortage to trigger annual wage increases of more than 3%
A short note on the China-US trade negotiations
Japan: There are cracks in the JGB 'bond dam' - this could have serious global consequences if the US ten-year bond yield breaches 3%
31. July 2018
USA: Conference Board consumer survey shows a buoyant labour market  - households' inflation expectations are on the rise
Euro-zone GDP report shows steady growth, but the impact of tailwinds from monetary easing in the past ebbs away
Japan's industrial production report: A steep decline in output report does not change the fact that the underlying details are more upbeat
China: PMI service sentiment index falls sharply in July - Weak inflation pressure makes room for more monetary easing and, consequently, a weaker yuan
30. July 2018
EMU: Solid performance of the 'reforming' countries in the periphery makes it difficult to postpone a 'normalisation' of monetary policy
EU Commission survey still forecasts robust Euro-zone growth in the second half of 2018
Sweden: Strong Q2 GDP growth and high inflation pressure, but a peculiar monetary policy
USA: The risk of recession in H2-2019 is on the rise - but higher price and wage inflation is needed to forecast 'recession'
27. July 2018
USA: Q2 GDP report was stronger than outlined by the headline number because of a significant drag from inventories
Japan: Inflation gaining a foothold will add pressure on the BoJ - faster monetary normalisation would be excellent timing as US interest rates are on the rise
France: Q2 GDP report disappoints - President Macron will not support Juncker-Trump deal to 'save Germany'
26. July 2018
USA: Durable goods orders report disappoints in June - The short-term outlook remains strong, but tentative signs of weakness to come in 2019
A short note on the Juncker-Trump 'deal'
Euro-zone: Hard and soft data continues to herald robust growth in H2 - Spanish unemployment hits the lowest level since 2008 and Italian sentiment stays at an elevated level
South Korea: Q2 GDP growth supported by strong export performance despite significant won appreciation in the last few years
25. July 2018
USA: New home sales and other early-indicators are slowly closing the gap to a flat yield curve