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26. January 2021
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey indicates short-term pain and tentative signs of long-term gains, as the share of vaccinated is close to 6%
Brazil: 'My country is broke,' says President Bolsonaro, having bought voters during the pandemic. Bolsonaro's approval rating plunges
Britain: November unemployment rate hit the highest level since July 2016. Retailer sentiment collapses in January to a level not seen since April 2020
EU: The 'failed' vaccination process could turn into dangerous political headwinds fuelling EU-sceptics unless Brussels pulls itself together
South Korea: Strong Q4 growth report. 'Thank you for the support, USA and EU'
25. January 2021
Germany: IFO survey disappoints due to a broad-based decline in future expectations. Manufacturing current conditions index remains upbeat
22. January 2021
USA: The housing market continued to stay upbeat in December despite soaring prices, but the bond market will create headwinds in from Q2
The video version of The Outlook 2021 is now available
Britain: Several tsunamis have hit the shore. Consumer and business sentiment drops, and the budget deficit soars
21. January 2021
USA: A buoyant regional Philadelphia Fed survey is only the tip of the iceberg in an over-stimulated economy
France: Insee survey shows broad-based improvement in sentiment, but the 'recovery' will be bumpy
Japan: The export sector improves but is lagging Taiwan and South Korea
20. January 2021
China-EU investment deal
Taiwan: Export orders skyrocket at the fastest rate since April 2010 by courtesy of the 'economic mitigation countries'. More to come, according to the Economy Ministry
Germany: Inflation at the factory gates surprises to the upside as higher prices on intermediate goods and raw materials hit the shore
19. January 2021
Germany: ZEW survey looks through 'temporary' Covid19 problems. Inflation expectations skyrocketed in January
Podcast interview with Joergen Bager, Senior Director of Market Operations at LEGO Group in China, about B2C and the Chinese consumer
18. January 2021
Japan Reuters Tankan survey: Service sentiment takes a beating while manufacturing confidence jumps in January
China: The recovery continued in Q4, but headwinds from a new Covid19 wave could hit growth in Q1, as households react immediately to the newsflow
Germany: The CDU opting for status quo does not eliminate the risk of political rivalry when Angela Merkel steps down
15. January 2021
USA: Manufacturing output continues bouncing back. Capital spending plans are on the rise. Empire State survey is a harbinger of higher inflation
USA: Retail sales decline in December as the pandemic continues to put a lid on growth
China: House price inflation moderates in December as tightening measures put a drag on house prices
14. January 2021
China: The 'economic mitigation countries' supported Chinese exporters in December. More to come in Q2 assuming there are no surprises from new Covid19 variants
Is inflation on the rise? Yes, by courtesy of policymakers who, once again, kicked the can down the road
13. January 2021
Italy: The manufacturing rebound slows at the same time as politics in Rome is back to 'normal' - political turmoil
The CDU-leader contest could turn into the most decisive moment in European politics in 2021 if Friedrich Merz is elected the next party leader
12. January 2021
USA: Small business sentiment falls sharply, as a new Covid19 wave dents the economic outlook, according to the NFIB
Japan: Service sentiment plunges as a more aggressive third wave of Covid19 emerges. The pandemic leaves Japan with the same problem but in a worse situation to mitigate headwinds
11. January 2021
Spain: The economy is losing steam. The vaccination process will be too slow to save the tourist season in 2021
China: Inflation normalises. It may be difficult for Beijing to keep their arms down. Insurrection in Washington and 'economic mitigation' in favour of Chinese exports. Can it get much better?
8. January 2021
USA: The Covid19 pandemic out of control hits the service sector hard in today's employment report
7. January 2021
USA: Soaring service sentiment despite no end to the pandemic. A significant bond market sell-off is in the pipeline
EU business and consumer survey: The rebound is on track but much weaker than in the United States
VIDEO: China's digital RMB - Beijing's view
Germany: Industrial orders jump in November. Growth will accelerate in Q2 unless South African and Romanian virus variants succeed in derailing the vaccination program
6. January 2021
USA: Weak ADP Employment Report is only one more argument for aggressive fiscal policy, according to the Democrats
The Outlook 2021 slides presentation
USA: The Georgia election could turn into the beginning of a larger bond market sell-off - and boosts the probability of more regulation of the tech sector
5. January 2021
USA: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back. Inflation pressure skyrockets in December by courtesy of the 'economic mitigation strategy'
Germany: Strong retail sales in November - more to come in Q2. Until then, Germany and the rest of Europe face the longest winter in living memory
4. January 2021
China: PMI survey continues to show robust growth. 'Jack Ma' is just yet another tycoon disappearing on the mainland
Sweden: Manufacturing sentiment jumps to the highest since 2010. Inflation pressure at the factory gates skyrockets
Significant pent-up demand from 'economic mitigation' - and more 'pent-up demand' to come in Q1 due to a failed Covid19 strategy in Europe and the United States
18. December 2020
The last date of updates in 2020 is on December 18. The first date of updates in 2021 is on 4 January
Germany: IFO survey was upbeat 'before' the decision of yet another national lockdown
A short note on what comes after 'the last hurdle' in the Covid19 pandemic
17. December 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey heralds weaker-than-expected recovery in 2021
France: Service sentiment bounces back as the 'second wave' collapses. The 'yo-yo pandemic' will create a new wave in January. Macron has tested positive for Covid19
16. December 2020
USA: Upbeat consumer sentiment was not reflected in the November retail sales report. The case for significant fiscal stimulus measures is building
A short note on the US dollar and the euro: Short-term US dollar weakness to be followed by significant strength in the second half of 2021
Japan: The export sector disappoints significantly in November. Successful vaccines come too late to provide help in the coming months
15. December 2020
USA: The Empire State manufacturing survey shows a steep jump in price expectations
China: The economy continues gaining momentum, as Beijing still seems to be in control of the pandemic, according to sources
14. December 2020
Euro-zone: Industrial output bounces back sharply in October, but the rebound stalls according to forward-looking indicators. ECB is far more aggressive than the Federal Reserve
Podcast interview with Professor Torben M Andersen, former chairman of the Danish government's advisory Covid19 group: What have we learned from the pandemic? [LANGUAGE: DANISH]
China: Tight monetary policy puts a drag on house prices
Japan: The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey shows improvement in corporate sentiment, but spending plans remain downbeat
11. December 2020
USA: Household sentiment jumps in December even though daily Covid19 cases hit 210,000
USA: The current price environment is neither too hot nor too cold, but inflation pressure is building
10. December 2020
Britain: The economic rebound has stalled. There are far too many unsolved issues
9. December 2020
Australia: Consumer sentiment jumps to the highest level since 2010 as a successful Covid19 strategy benefits the economy and the people
Germany: The rebound in the export sector disappoints - and the outlook continues to deteriorate
China: Soaring imported supply of pork and meat makes consumer prices decline in November. Factory gate prices headed towards a sharp increase in 2021
8. December 2020
USA: The NFIB small business sentiment index fell in November. The six-month outlook plunged. Georgia runoff election could trigger bond market sell-off
Japan: The Economy Watcher index falls sharply in December after the 'third wave' of Covid19 inflates to a new record high
7. December 2020
Germany: Industrial output jumps in October, but Covid19 could trigger a double-dip recession
China benefits strongly from the failure to handle Covid19 in Europe and the United States - but secular headwinds will gain momentum in the coming years
4. December 2020
USA: The November employment report disappoints as a new Covid19 wave hits the shores. The wave will get even larger going into January
Germany: The rebound in industrial orders boosted by non-Euro-zone orders and strong demand for autos. IFO survey heralds short-term weakness
3. December 2020
USA: ISM service sentiment survey seems overly optimistic considering that the country faces the worst ever test of its healthcare system in the coming months
Euro-zone: Strong retail sales in October supported by pent-up demand and 'opening up'. Second thoughts in Berlin about Covid19 mitigation costs after yet another 'lock-down'
Turkey: Skyrocketing inflation in November makes leeway for another rate hike. President Erdogan is a case study of 'what not to do'
2. December 2020
Australia: Protecting the economy and the health of the people places the country among the top four in the world in 2020
Germany: Household spending skyrockets in October based on pent-up demand, but most German consumers face the 'mother of all headwinds' in 2021
1. December 2020
USA: Manufacturing sentiment declines in November but stays at an elevated level, as the economy is still exposed to unprecedented stimulus measures
Euro-zone: Deflationary pressure prevailed in November - at least according to the consumer basket used before the coronavirus outbreak. The picture could change rapidly
The Swiss economy bounces back sharply in Q3 to the relief of the world's biggest hedge fund, SNB
30. November 2020
Turkey: President Erdogan used all ammo to boost growth in Q3. Now comes skyrocketing Covid19 cases, higher policy rates - and Erdogan is still around
Japan: Highly efficient vaccines will reinforce the economic rebound, but the response to Covid19 has made 'old problems' even worse
PMI survey: China benefits from its Covid19 strategy and the failure of Europe and the US, which will be reinforced by surprisingly efficient vaccines
27. November 2020
EU survey: Service sentiment takes a beating before the next Covid19 wave in January - but export sentiment improves
China: Industrial profits jump as most engines are running - but do not get too excited as demographics is a much stronger headwind than assessed by many investors
26. November 2020
Germany: Consumer sentiment drops as the aftermath of Covid19 has just started despite several successful vaccines have emerged
More evidence of a slow supply-side response to aggressive 'economic mitigation' boosts the possibility of an inflation surprise in 2021
25. November 2020
USA: New home sales remain buoyant. A low inventory level of unsold homes indicates the strongest 'wealth effect' since 1980
USA: The economy is over-stimulated although Covid19 will create headwinds in November-January. Inflation could radically change the environment in 2021
South Korea: Business sentiment jumps in November. Export sentiment skyrockets to the highest since 2011 supported by China and 'economic mitigation' in Europe and the United States
24. November 2020
USA: Consumer confidence expectations decline in November, as the 'third wave' of Covid19 hits the shores
Germany: Manufacturing sentiment improves while service sentiment takes a beating in November
France: The second wave of Covid19 hits service business sentiment. This is 'history', as highly efficient vaccines 'saved the world', according to investors
23. November 2020
By Invitation: Time is up for Xi Jinping to make China greener
Asia: South Korean and Taiwanese statistics show a strong rebound in export activity
Euro-zone: High-efficacy vaccines have radically changed the game in the financial market, but Europe could face the most challenging wave in January
20. November 2020
Japan: Deflation prevails as the rebound remains weak. Tokyo faces a complicated inflation-versus-deflation scenario
19. November 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey stays upbeat, as companies see beyond what could turn out to be the longest 'winter' within living memory
Business sentiment takes another beating as Britain 'cannot even see the tunnel'
Australia: A buoyant labour market provides a lesson to Europe and the United States - but it comes too late
18. November 2020
USA: Policymakers boosts housing demand, which creates short-term inflation as the supply-side is reluctant to react. The risk is, perversely, significant deflationary pressure from 2022
Japan: Chinese and US demand boost exports in October, but exporters face headwinds from a tough 'winter' in Europe and the United States