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4. December 2020
USA: The November employment report disappoints as a new Covid19 wave hits the shores. The wave will get even larger going into January
Germany: The rebound in industrial orders boosted by non-Euro-zone orders and strong demand for autos. IFO survey heralds short-term weakness
3. December 2020
USA: ISM service sentiment survey seems overly optimistic considering that the country faces the worst ever test of its healthcare system in the coming months
Euro-zone: Strong retail sales in October supported by pent-up demand and 'opening up'. Second thoughts in Berlin about Covid19 mitigation costs after yet another 'lock-down'
Turkey: Skyrocketing inflation in November makes leeway for another rate hike. President Erdogan is a case study of 'what not to do'
2. December 2020
Australia: Protecting the economy and the health of the people places the country among the top four in the world in 2020
Germany: Household spending skyrockets in October based on pent-up demand, but most German consumers face the 'mother of all headwinds' in 2021
1. December 2020
USA: Manufacturing sentiment declines in November but stays at an elevated level, as the economy is still exposed to unprecedented stimulus measures
Euro-zone: Deflationary pressure prevailed in November - at least according to the consumer basket used before the coronavirus outbreak. The picture could change rapidly
The Swiss economy bounces back sharply in Q3 to the relief of the world's biggest hedge fund, SNB
30. November 2020
Turkey: President Erdogan used all ammo to boost growth in Q3. Now comes skyrocketing Covid19 cases, higher policy rates - and Erdogan is still around
Japan: Highly efficient vaccines will reinforce the economic rebound, but the response to Covid19 has made 'old problems' even worse
PMI survey: China benefits from its Covid19 strategy and the failure of Europe and the US, which will be reinforced by surprisingly efficient vaccines
27. November 2020
EU survey: Service sentiment takes a beating before the next Covid19 wave in January - but export sentiment improves
China: Industrial profits jump as most engines are running - but do not get too excited as demographics is a much stronger headwind than assessed by many investors
26. November 2020
Germany: Consumer sentiment drops as the aftermath of Covid19 has just started despite several successful vaccines have emerged
More evidence of a slow supply-side response to aggressive 'economic mitigation' boosts the possibility of an inflation surprise in 2021
25. November 2020
USA: New home sales remain buoyant. A low inventory level of unsold homes indicates the strongest 'wealth effect' since 1980
USA: The economy is over-stimulated although Covid19 will create headwinds in November-January. Inflation could radically change the environment in 2021
South Korea: Business sentiment jumps in November. Export sentiment skyrockets to the highest since 2011 supported by China and 'economic mitigation' in Europe and the United States
24. November 2020
USA: Consumer confidence expectations decline in November, as the 'third wave' of Covid19 hits the shores
Germany: Manufacturing sentiment improves while service sentiment takes a beating in November
France: The second wave of Covid19 hits service business sentiment. This is 'history', as highly efficient vaccines 'saved the world', according to investors
23. November 2020
By Invitation: Time is up for Xi Jinping to make China greener
Asia: South Korean and Taiwanese statistics show a strong rebound in export activity
Euro-zone: High-efficacy vaccines have radically changed the game in the financial market, but Europe could face the most challenging wave in January
20. November 2020
Japan: Deflation prevails as the rebound remains weak. Tokyo faces a complicated inflation-versus-deflation scenario
19. November 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey stays upbeat, as companies see beyond what could turn out to be the longest 'winter' within living memory
Business sentiment takes another beating as Britain 'cannot even see the tunnel'
Australia: A buoyant labour market provides a lesson to Europe and the United States - but it comes too late
18. November 2020
USA: Policymakers boosts housing demand, which creates short-term inflation as the supply-side is reluctant to react. The risk is, perversely, significant deflationary pressure from 2022
Japan: Chinese and US demand boost exports in October, but exporters face headwinds from a tough 'winter' in Europe and the United States
17. November 2020
There will only be delayed updates on November 17-18 due to the China webinar
16. November 2020
USA: Regional Empire State survey shows that investors and monetary policymakers should forget about the risk of deflation
Japan: Private consumption and net-exports propel the economy higher in Q3, but corporate spending shrinks
China: The economy gained momentum in October, as President Trump helped Beijing making 'China great again'. The world's biggest free-trade deal signed this weekend
13. November 2020
US households face tough months ahead as the third wave of the coronavirus hits the shore more forcefully than in H1. There is no Covid19 strategy until January 20
USA: The federal deficit jumps in October boosted by soaring Covid19-related spending and the Trump tax cuts in 2017
12. November 2020
Euro-zone: A weak industrial report in September. A vaccine will not prevent a stop-and-go economy, as Covid19 will take a heavy toll until April-May
Japan: Falling machinery orders in September are a huge disappointment. Japan's and the global business sector want to 'see more' before boosting investments. This could close the output gap faster than expected in several sectors
Britain: The economy bounces back in Q3, but the UK remains among the worst-performing countries in 2020. 'Covid19 mutation' is 'skyrocketing public sector debt'
11. November 2020
The only difference between Turkey and Brazil is that President Erdogan finally acknowledges his big policy mistakes. Do not expect Bolsonaro to do the same
USA: Joe Biden won the election, but time is with Donald Trump, at least until January 5, as the Republicans need him in Georgia's run-off election
China faces 'monetary tightening' caused by its own success and the 'failure' of Europe and the United States. Monetary exit talk is premature
Australia benefits strongly from a 'close to zero-tolerance' strategy and aggressive global easing - but Beijing widens 'trade embargo'
10. November 2020
USA: Small business sentiment remains highly upbeat - even before yesterday's positive vaccine news
Germany: ZEW survey shows that Europe is headed towards trouble without a 'mass-distributed' vaccine tomorrow - and not in April 2021
China: Consumer prices decline due to imported pork and meat supply, but no signs of 'core deflation'
9. November 2020
The beginning of the end for the Erdogan dynasty? A fired central bank governor and the President's son-in-law resigning make the lira rally
Japan: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back strongly in October, but service sentiment remains significantly below the pre-Covid19 level. Unwinding short-Japan-stock-market strategy
China: Exporters are among the main beneficiaries of the 'economic mitigation' strategy in Europe and the United States
6. November 2020
USA: The rebound in the labour market was stronger than market expectations in  October - but there is still a long way to go
Germany: Industrial production report disappoints. Hard data fails to show what is outlined by soft data. When will policymakers focus on the problem, a virus?
5. November 2020
USA: Weekly jobless claims report remains a harbinger of a strong October employment report on Friday
Sweden: The economy bounces back nicely in Q3. A strong fiscal position makes the country well-prepared for a bumpy 2021
Germany: Industrial orders lost momentum in September, but the outlook remains positive, according to IFO
4. November 2020
USA: ISM service sentiment survey disappoints shortly before the election. Today, the situation is no better than two days ago
USA: ADP Employment report disappoints significantly considering a sharp decline in the weekly 'continued jobless claims' number
Spain: Public hiring and the furlough scheme are not enough to support the labour market. Daily Covid19 cases have doubled within two weeks
A short note on the not yet clarified US election: The outcome is a catastrophe for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party considering heavy headwinds for President Trump in the form of Covid19
China: Private service sentiment index jumps in October. Jack Ma is 'reprimanded' after sticking his neck out too often
3. November 2020
Turkey: Skyrocketing inflation at the factory gates bodes ill for consumer price inflation and the lira in the coming months by courtesy of President Erdogan
2. November 2020
USA: ISM manufacturing index jumps in October. The orders index skyrocketed to the highest level since January 2004
A short note on the next leg of the Covid19 storyboard: A peak in November makes leeway for the next wave by mid-January
China: The economy shows no signs of slowing, according to the official as well as the private PMI surveys. Beijing provides hints of what the next five-year plan might include
30. October 2020
Japan: The manufacturing sector bounces back, but headwinds prevail. Global risk-off could lead to sharp yen appreciation and, consequently, a steep sell-off in the stock market
Germany: A robust recovery in Q3, but the second wave of Covid19 has now hit the shore and triggered a new 'national lockdown'
France: The economy bounces back strongly in Q3 propelled by policymakers' one and only 'plan A' - but there is no 'plan B' to fight the next leg in the Covid19 storyboard
29. October 2020
USA: The economy bounced back sharply in Q3 supported by strong private consumption and inventories. The next leg of a still untamed coronavirus will hit growth and the stock market in the coming months
Euro-zone: The manufacturing sector adjusting to Covid19 will no longer be enough to mitigate the impact of a suffering service sector
South Korea: Manufacturing and service sentiment jumps in October, as the country sacrifices 'privacy' to fight a pandemic
28. October 2020
Spain needs significant financial support, but this will be an uphill struggle as rich EU-members face their own Covid19 problems
Sweden: Economic sentiment improves in October, but 'what happened one week ago is old news' in Covid19 times
27. October 2020
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey shows an improving 'present situation' but falling expectations. Households' assessment of the labour market improves markedly
USA: Corporate spending continues to disappoint despite upbeat spending plans
Euro-zone: The ECB takes the lead in the global money-printing competition. This could weaken the 'euro-bull case'
South Korea: The economy bounces back in Q3, but the outlook is weak
26. October 2020
USA: The September new home sales report disappoints, but a low supply of unsold houses will continue to add upward pressure on existing home prices
Turkey: The costs of creating a rebound have been huge. Foreign exchange reserves are at the lowest level since 2005
Germany: IFO business survey shows a sharp decline in service sentiment while manufacturing sentiment improves
23. October 2020
USA: Existing home prices skyrocketing at the fastest rate since 2005 propelled by aggressive monetary easing
22. October 2020
Britain: CBI Trends survey gives rise to some optimism were it not for the fact that daily Covid19 cases tripled in the last two weeks
The case for selling the stock market
France: Service sentiment takes a beating as new Covid19 cases are skyrocketing
Germany: Households are losing confidence in the long-term outlook for the economy, according to the GFK consumer survey. Daily Covid19 cases jump above 11,000
21. October 2020
Britain: Fiscal deficit in September hits the highest level since 1993, as tensions between Sunak and Johnson emerge
20. October 2020
USA: Housing starts report disappoints, but the outlook remains strong. Be aware of fiscal policymakers changing policy stance after the November election
Taiwan: The details in a strong export orders report are, to no small extent, a reflection of different Covid19 strategies around the world
China: House price increases cool as regulators impose rules to put a lid on prices. Capital searching high and low for return will support the housing market in the short to medium term
19. October 2020
WEBINAR: Beijing's new assertiveness. A new reality for investors and companies in the new world order
China: Strong imports put a lid on Q3 GDP growth as a 'successful' Covid19 strategy boosts domestic demand
16. October 2020
USA: Manufacturing output report in September disappoints significantly despite buoyant soft data
USA: Retail sales jump in September as the economy is exposed to the biggest stimulus wave since the Second World War
15. October 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey maintains an upbeat short and long-term outlook. New orders index hits the highest level ever recorded
The second leg of Covid19 will test policymakers in the United States and Europe whose 'plan A' is based on 'economic mitigation' and a vaccine 'tomorrow' - but 'mitigation' will not make a virus go away
China: Falling food inflation puts a lid on consumer price inflation. Deflation still prevails at the factory gates
14. October 2020
China: Monetary statistics report shows that shadow banking has been the main credit facilitator during Covid19. Yuan appreciation makes leeway for more monetary easing
Australia: Consumer sentiment jumps as a prudent and more efficient Covid19-strategy pays off
13. October 2020
USA: Small business sentiment jumps in September. Inflation will soon make a comeback, according to NFIB
Britain: Poorly-educated workers and Prime Minister Johnson face trouble as 'job support scheme' comes to an end. The hangover from the rebound efforts will be painful