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20. August 2019
Germany: Benign inflation and 'recession' make leeway for fiscal and monetary stimulus measures
19. August 2019
Japan: Sentiment plunges across the board, according to the Reuters Tankan survey
16. August 2019
USA: A sharp decline in consumer sentiment should give rise to some concern at the Federal Reserve, but households are still exposed to more tailwinds than headwinds
USA: A mixed housing market report, but falling mortgage rates will boost future activity. Skyrocketing refinancing supports existing homeowners
Turkey: Industrial output drops sharply. President Erdogan 'readjusts' his views to make new friends in Beijing
15. August 2019
USA: Manufacturing output contracts in July; more to come in the coming months but there are no signs yet of a 'collapse'
USA: Surprisingly strong manufacturing Philadelphia Fed survey. Retail sales jump as households benefit from low inflation, interest rates and a strong labour market
A short note on a flat US yield curve: A few missing factors are still needed to forecast a 'serious economic downturn'
China's highly regulated house prices see support from tier-2 and tier-3 cities, but oversupply is on the rise 
14. August 2019
Euro-zone Q2 GDP report: Germany and Italy are the two weakest links. Chancellor Merkel is slowly recognising the need for fiscal stimulus measures
Britain: Elevated price and wage inflation makes monetary policy a delicate balancing act for the Bank of England as 'recession' in 2020 is highly likely
Japan: Strong hard data, but soft data show a sharp deterioration in the growth outlook
China: Economic activity slowed significantly in July, but Beijing gets help from Trump blinking when the going gets tough
13. August 2019
USA: Small business sentiment bounces back and stays at an elevated level. Labour shortage hits an all-time high
Germany: ZEW index plunges in August to the lowest level since 2011 as the risk of recession increases dramatically
USA: Budget deficit soars despite robust nominal GDP growth in 2019 and 2018. 'Necessary' boost in defence spending will further inflate the deficit
12. August 2019
China: Monetary statistics still show no signs of panicking policy-makers. Beijing is too confident about the future
Germany: The economy slows rapidly ahead of crucial state elections in East Germany. Berlin is poised to launch aggressive fiscal stimulus measures
Podcast interview with Philip Christian Ulrich, Kongressen.com, about why 'America First' is here to stay - with or without the re-election of President Trump
A summary of the last two turbulent weeks of political and economic events
27. July 2019
There will be no updates from July 29 to August 9 due to vacation
26. July 2019
USA: Robust Q2 GDP report was stronger than outlined by the headline number. Real domestic demand jumped in Q2
Italy is going nowhere after Rome chose the line of least resistance. 'Fools' are forced to finance Rome
A short note on the after-effect of the IFO survey: 'Germany Not in Crisis Nor Mulling Stimulus'
25. July 2019
USA: The Federal Reserve has already made its decision with or without a better-than-expected durable goods orders report
South Korea: The economy is much weaker than reflected by the headline growth number in the Q2 GDP report
Spain: The unemployment rate hits the lowest level since 2008. Political mess is no problem as long as politicians do not take any decisions
Germany: IFO expectations index drops to the lowest level since July 2009. Service sector moves into a 'downswing'
24. July 2019
Euro-zone: ECB can only bet on a weaker euro. The current high real ten-year bond yield differential supports such a strategy
What the UN 2019 Population Projection says about the future - Presentation
France: Manufacturing and service sentiment surveys herald moderately slower growth. President Macron's next fight is with the greens trying to conquer the political centre
23. July 2019
USA: Existing home sales disappoint, but the monetary environment remains supportive
Britain: Manufacturing sentiment plunges to the lowest level since April 2010
22. July 2019
Taiwan: Weak export orders report is more evidence of a weak mainland economy
19. July 2019
USA: University of Michigan consumer survey continues to show upbeat households as they see no significant headwinds - and definitely not monetary headwind
Germany: Inflation at the factory gates falls sharply in June despite increasing labour costs
18. July 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey raises doubt about the credibility of the Federal Reserve. The short and long-term indicators jump. Employment index hits an all-time high
South Korea finally cuts policy rates as the country faces headwinds from all directions
Japan: Trade statistics show no signs of a rebound. Inventories are on the rise
17. July 2019
USA: Housing starts report disappoints in June, but the outlook remains upbeat according to the latest homebuilder survey
16. July 2019
USA: Very strong retail sales report discredits Fed Chairman Powell. This could turn into a significant policy mistake if manufacturing sentiment were to bounce back as well 
ZEW survey shows growing concern among investors regarding the extent of headwinds facing the German economy
Britain: The first profound impact of Brexit hits the shore, according to the June labour market report. The risk of recession in 2020 is on the rise
Brussels missed an opportunity to become a global player matching its size
15. July 2019
USA: Empire State manufacturing index bounces back in July after Fed Chairman Powell was 'bullied' into easing monetary policy
China: House price inflation slows as policymakers maintain tightening measures in the housing market
Chinese growth declined in the second quarter to the lowest level since the early 1990s
12. July 2019
USA: Producer price inflation remains benign despite import tariffs
China: Monetary statistics show no signs yet of aggressive easing measures
China: The June trade report pictures a weak economy. Trump is not rewarded by the Chinese to the extent 'promised by Beijing'
11. July 2019
USA: Core inflation increases as Fed Chairman Powell talks about a rate cut despite a soaring fiscal deficit
Turkey records a minor current account surplus as domestic demand has collapsed. The central bank governor is fired and close allies of President Erdogan are leaving the AK Party
10. July 2019
The French economy stands out from the crowd, but the Euro-zone's main growth engine is still down
Food for thought: In the past, inflation and higher interest rates created downturns. Today, are low interest rates creating the foundation for the next downturn?
China: Producer prices falling into the deflation zone indicates no signs of a manufacturing rebound
9. July 2019
USA: Small business sentiment declines after a strong rebound in the previous months. NFIB survey continues to show a very tight labour market
Japan: Nominal and real wages continue to contract despite historically low unemployment. The risk of recession is still high
8. July 2019
China's foreign exchange reserves stabilise, but for all the wrong reasons
Germany: A minor rebound in manufacturing activity in May does not change a gloomy outlook
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Sorensen from the Institute for Strategy at the Royal Danish Defence College about a wide range of global foreign policy issues linked to the Rise of China
5. July 2019
USA: Robust June labour market report rules out July rate cut
Germany: Industrial orders fall sharply as there are no signs of a rebound in demand. All factors point to a weak euro
4. July 2019
Euro-zone: Consumer spending disappoints in May despite cyclical tailwinds
3. July 2019
USA: Service sentiment index continues lower. The orders index falls sharply
Podcast interview with Morten Springborg, Thematic Specialist, about tech competition between China and the West, splinternet, 5G and how strong China's tech sector really is
Podcast interview with Casper Wichmann, China tech expert, about tech competition between China and the West, splinternet, 5G and how strong China's tech sector really is
A short note about the EU's top jobs decision: Compromise candidate Ursula von der Leyen is more political inaction. Christine Lagarde keeps the ECB Italian-French
China: Caixin service index declines. Anecdotal evidence of a much weaker economy
1. July 2019
There will be no 'daily macro' updates on July 2
USA: Manufacturing ISM index declines in June although less than market expectations. More worryingly, the ISM orders index fell again sharply
A short note on whether Huawei is a security or a commercial risk. The credibility of President Trump suffered significantly after the G-20 meeting
Bank of Japan Tankan survey shows more weakness than reflected in the monthly surveys; consumer confidence falls sharply in June
China: June PMI index stays in the contraction zone in spite of economic stimulus measures;  Xi Jinping and Donald Trump kick the can down the road, but $250 billion import tariffs remain
28. June 2019
Spain: Rajoy's economic reforms continue boosting growth despite a political mess. Europe turning left will soon dent fiscal credibility
Swiss economic indicators show an increased risk of a technical recession later in 2019; a harbinger of slower Euro-zone growth
Japan: Industrial production rose strongly in June despite extended Golden Week holidays
27. June 2019
EU survey: Euro-zone economic sentiment falls sharply in June; export downturn accelerates
Turkey: A sharp improvement in the economic confidence index does not change the 'double-dip recession scenario' - President Erdogan faces pressure from opposition and AKP
26. June 2019
USA: Durable goods orders continued to lose momentum in May despite the corporate tax cuts. The biggest obstacle to corporate spending is geopolitical uncertainty
France: Consumer sentiment continues to improve boosted by a better labour market and increasing real purchasing power, but the costs may be too high
Germany: Consumer climate deteriorates as households face increasing political uncertainty and a 'government of inaction' in Berlin
25. June 2019
USA: The Conference Board consumer confidence and new home sales statistics disappoint significantly to the downside
France: Service sentiment improves, but manufacturing headline index declines, as the export outlook index falls sharply in June
USA: The Dallas Fed manufacturing headline index plunges in June; corporate spending slows markedly
24. June 2019
Germany: IFO survey shows no signs of an upcoming rebound. Manufacturing sector moves closer to the 'recession zone'
Turkey: President Erdogan defeated in the rerun of the Istanbul election
21. June 2019
USA: Existing home sales report shows solid house price gains supported by low inventories of unsold 'new' homes
A short note on South Korea's 'first-20-days-exports' statistics: No signs of a global trade rebound
20. June 2019
USA: The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index fell sharply in June, but there are still no signs of an upcoming recession
Britain: Households continue to see solid support from real wages and a tight labour market, but the outlook is deteriorating
'China proxy': Taiwanese exports orders to mainland China plunge at the fastest rate since 2013
19. June 2019
EU: Monetary policy contradicting the climate challenge will continue to fuel populist parties. Germany shows what lies ahead
18. June 2019
USA: Housing starts surprise to the upside as the monetary environment improves. A dovish ECB complicates the policy task of the Federal Reserve
Germany: ZEW headline index plunges in June as the corporate sector faces several headwinds, not least sweeping climate policy changes
Turkey: Industrial output plunges ahead of the rerun of local elections in Istanbul. A 'double-dip recession' is in the pipeline
China: House prices continue higher; Beijing cannot afford falling asset prices as households face more headwinds 
17. June 2019
USA: The regional manufacturing Empire State headline index plunges in June. Corporate spending plans decline sharply as well
Euro-zone: Labour shortage boosts wage inflation in the first quarter of 2019. A dramatic political shift in Germany is underestimated by the financial market
USA: The White House's inconsistent foreign policy has created a 'world of disorder'
USA: Strong economic statistics make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut policy rates, although the situation could change dramatically in the second half of 2019