13. September 2024
China no longer has wise political leaders - but weak EU leaders continue to fall for old tricks in Beijing
12. September 2024
The Eurozone faces chaotic years ahead - and the ECB cannot help much this time. The AfD is looking forward to the 2025 election
11. September 2024
In the West, the risk of stagflation is likely more significant than the risk of recession
10. September 2024
The final version of the Mid-Year Update Presentation is now available here
9. September 2024
The Eurozone and the USA face a complicated period of policy rate cuts
30. August 2024
There will be no updates on August 31-September 9 due to vacation
EU: The UN Population Revision 2024 shows even stronger demographic headwinds unless politicians promote rather than hinder the spread of Artificial Intelligence
28. August 2024
USA: Falling inflation, a 50 basis points rate cut, and a new growth leg sound almost too good to be true. It is, indeed!
26. August 2024
IFO survey: Germany's industry is in deep trouble, but Berlin is still wearing blinders
22. August 2024
Germany's Economic Crisis in Slow-Motion: Berlin needs to act decisively before it is too late
21. August 2024
Podcast interview with military tech expert Andreas Graae: Does Denmark have the right defence for future military conflicts?
20. August 2024
Insightview's perspective on the US Federal Reserve's potential policy shift, recession, the Presidential election, the bond and stock markets
16. August 2024
AI, Demographics, and Geopolitics - and What It Means for the Stock Market [article and video]
15. August 2024
China: Everything points towards an 'asset price recession' unless stubbornness is replaced by realism in Beijing
14. August 2024
The Federal Reserve's path of policy rate cuts and the implications for the bond market
13. August 2024
A steepening US yield curve 'assumes' the Federal Reserve will do the 'right thing.' A robust NFIB survey shows why this will not be a classic economic slowdown
12. August 2024
State elections in Germany: Sahra Wagenknecht benefits from the 'bookkeeper approach' in Berlin
9. August 2024
The impact of AI on the US economy: Is divergence between SP500 market cap and nominal GDP too high?
7. August 2024
The US Federal Reserve is likely more nervous than investors due to a significant decline in TIPS inflation expectations
6. August 2024
Navigating the market bubble without losing sight of the big picture: ISM service survey brings relief to a nervous stock market
5. August 2024
The blinders are off. A different aftermath due to a markedly different environment than in the past
2. August 2024
The Bank of Japan, yen repatriation, US 'recession' and 'growth panic': Does 'what did not happen earlier' unfold now? What are the consequences?
A Federal Reserve policy rate cut of 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points cannot be ruled out following a surprisingly weak ISM survey
1. August 2024
China's economy: Who speaks up if things go in the wrong direction?
31. July 2024
Eurozone: The factors driving service inflation will not disappear in the next many years
30. July 2024
Berlin 'saving itself to death' has now become the Eurozone's biggest problem
29. July 2024
The US Federal Reserve and the ECB will lower policy rates, but the decision could suddenly appear in a different light
26. July 2024
US Q2 growth report, a steepening yield curve and geopolitics make the coming quarters a delicate balancing act for the Federal Reserve
25. July 2024
The economic undercurrent gains the upper hand in the Eurozone with huge political consequences to come
24. July 2024
Is the financial market wearing blinders?
22. July 2024
The Third Plenum meeting reinforces Xi Jinping's direction - more of the same that triggered the trade conflicts
Summary of the 'Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Deepening Reform and Advancing Chinese Modernisation'
19. July 2024
A short note on strong regional Philadelphia Fed surveys in the United States
18. July 2024
Weather Forecast: 'Hurricane-like Winds with Shifting Directions and the Formation of New Inflation Clouds in the Western Region. Unstable Fronts with Isolationist Trump-Vance Leadership'
16. July 2024
The next Trump administration could push the EU into a dangerous security vacuum
15. July 2024
The political impact of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump before and after the election
China needs a 'controlled' recession, but Beijing has failed to create the institutionalised framework. Beijing has a different priority list
12. July 2024
Does falling US inflation also mean significantly lower bond yields?
11. July 2024
Washington Meeting: Geopolitical tensions are escalating with significant economic consequences
10. July 2024
The path of interest rates in the US - and the impact on the Eurozone bond market
9. July 2024
Misunderstood fiscal discipline in Berlin: Germany's path to instability
8. July 2024
French Election: The operation succeeded - but it caused the pendulum to swing to the left
28. June 2024
Due to vacation, there will be no updates on July 1-5
27. June 2024
Germany stands out in the June EU business and consumer survey: One threat from Beijing and Olaf Scholz panics
China's window of opportunity: A second and last chance to save the relationship with the European Union?
25. June 2024
National Rally is poised for a major electoral victory. ECB will bear part of the credit risk for the election promises. What are the consequences of 'French nukes are for France'?
24. June 2024
Germany needs - and will be forced to accept - lenient fiscal rules to make Germany and the EU survive
21. June 2024
'Recovery' in the US manufacturing sector does not gain traction - but inflationary pressures accelerate. Trump and the risk of recession
20. June 2024
Germany's competitiveness faces significant erosion without action
18. June 2024
The 'centre holds,' but the Eurozone faces unprecedented economic problems from weak productivity and soaring labour costs
17. June 2024
China is in the midst of a balance sheet 'recession': Existing house prices drop at the fastest rate since 2011
14. June 2024
Political chaos in France: Marine Le Pen knows the path to power through the front door at the centre, but what happens when she stands in the corridor of power?
13. June 2024
Washington will be forced to address a spiralling federal debt - otherwise, the bond market will react accordingly
11. June 2024
USA: The NFIB sentiment survey shows no signs of a weakening labour market. Labour shortages will prevail throughout 2024
The game is over for the coalition in Berlin. Germany could soon be forced to call an early election - tomorrow might be too late
10. June 2024
A weaker EU at the worst possible time means a higher risk premium. Will Meloni save the EU? What is the outcome of Macron's Russian Roulette?
7. June 2024
Chinese trade figures still show signs of a weak domestic economy. The cost of 'de-risking' will be high for China and the EU
6. June 2024
ECB decides hawkish monetary easing because it has no other option
4. June 2024
What happens if the gap between the ISM and the real economy closes?
3. June 2024
The ECB's communication problem: Policy rate cut, service inflation, soaring budget deficits and labour shortages
31. May 2024
A Beijing that continues to kick the can down the road and a West that no longer follows Beijing's playbook will not create a self-propelled recovery in China
30. May 2024
Western secular challenges: Implications for bond markets, the yield curve and monetary policy
29. May 2024
The European Central Bank's main challenge is to increase unemployment
Podcast interview with Camilla Tenna Norup Sorensen: The EU's next major challenge - the strained relationship with 'Xi Jinping's China'
27. May 2024
IFO survey: The road to recovery will be a long and arduous process, requiring massive investments in new technology
24. May 2024
EU's secular problem - labour shortage - is highly evident in French business surveys
23. May 2024
Has the ECB promised too much? Yes, according to German wage statistics and due to a hostile geopolitical environment
21. May 2024
Why are commodity prices rising?
17. May 2024
Due to Whit Monday, there will be no update on May 20
Beijing reacts when the CPC is threatened. The real estate sector crisis requires action, but new measures are mostly kicking the can down the road
16. May 2024
Washington's focus on inflation and the federal budget deficit will soon become the EU's biggest problem as generosity fades
14. May 2024
USA: Demographics, 'significant de-risking', and military build-up will amplify inflationary pressures in the coming quarters and years
British labour market report underscores European central banks' lack of room for manoeuvre
13. May 2024
'Xi Jinping's China' is becoming more visible on the horizon in the West. This gives rise to concern in the EU
8. May 2024
Due to Ascension Day, there will be no update on May 9 and May 10
7. May 2024
Germany's many obstacles: Fifth-column activities, Scholz and Christian Lindner stand in the way of voters who support change
6. May 2024
A short note on the US employment report and the ISM surveys: A paradigm shift
The EU faces crucial days and months. The first test is the Xi Jinping visit. The next test: Ukraine's vulnerable eastern front?
3. May 2024
The US labour market will continue to hit its ceiling without massive increases in productivity
2. May 2024
Japan is a 'currency manipulator' - but no one has an interest in telling Tokyo [corrected]
1. May 2024
Western central banks face a reality check. Wage inflation will not go away without higher unemployment - but this requires significant tightening
30. April 2024
The EU Parliamentary election could prove to be fateful. It will reveal whether a strong centre has the support of the voters
29. April 2024
The Eurozone economy has stalled
The likelihood of 'significant EU de-risking' away from China is increasing
26. April 2024
The ECB would have already cut policy rates multiple times if these were 'normal times'. It is not!
The Bank of Japan continues to speak with a forked tongue. This cannot go unpunished for the yen as the US Federal Reserve may not be able to lower interest rates
24. April 2024
Podcast interview with Jacob Kaarsbo: ENGLISH transcript - Ukraine, Iran, China, Russia, Donald Trump and what awaits the EU countries in the coming time
Germany: The IFO survey continues to show improvement - but the risk of 'profound de-risking' away from China is on the rise
22. April 2024
A dynamic geopolitical situation could sooner rather than later force the EU to address more aggressively its dependency on China
18. April 2024
US Philadelphia Fed survey: A new inflation leg is underway in the manufacturing sector
The aftermath of Scholz's kowtow: Beijing has a problem if the EU proves to have a backbone - and so will many European companies in China
16. April 2024
China: 'Impressive' growth number in Q1 if you are wearing blinkers
15. April 2024
The missile attack wiped the slate clean for Netanyahu and opened a window of opportunity to target Iran's nuclear weapons program
12. April 2024
The underlying details in China's trade statistics continue to show domestic weakness. Scholz headed for another kowtow in Beijing
Podcast interview with USA expert Niels Bjerre-Poulsen: What happens if Trump becomes the next president of the United States?
11. April 2024
Deflationary tendencies bring up the 'bazooka talk' again, but Beijing has a completely different agenda
10. April 2024
USA: The Federal Reserve's job is far from done. Reducing service price inflation is difficult without a significant increase in unemployment
9. April 2024
The Bank of Japan is playing with fire: Households are seeing stronger wage increases and higher inflation
5. April 2024
Another strong US labour market report will not give 'inevitable' policy rate cuts a particularly warm reception in the long end of the bond market
If Ukraine falls, public sector expenditure in EU member states will rise rapidly in a world with many constraints
