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18. August 2022
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey indicates a 'possible' bottom in the manufacturing sector in Q4. Signs of falling inflation still prevail
The penny finally 'seems' to have dropped at the ECB, but this is a painfully slow process
17. August 2022
USA: Inflation makes inroads into retail sales, but households are in a much better position than in Europe
Britain: Inflation hits the highest level in 40 years. The role of monetary policy to boost growth will disappear in the current environment
A short note on the ramifications of chaos in an unbalanced energy market in the European Union - or a failed energy strategy
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows a rebound in manufacturing and service sentiment. Stop-loss in 'short-Japanese-stocks strategy'
16. August 2022
US housing starts dropped sharply in July, as the affordability index plunged at the fastest rate since 1982
The consequences of the EU's naive energy policy are spreading to the entire economy, but naivety continues in Berlin
15. August 2022
USA: Empire State survey shows a steep decline in business sentiment to the lowest since May 2020. Manufacturing recession?
Germany: Wholesale price statistics indicate falling CPI inflation, but skyrocketing electricity prices will soon put an end to the joy
China's central bank cuts rates as other decision-makers are doing 'repair' after the policy mess created by President Xi Jinping
12. August 2022
USA: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index improves. One-year inflation expectations drop, but five-year inflation expectations increase
Euro-zone: Manufacturing output continues to bounce back, but the need to boost inventories is slowly evaporating
Britain: Q2 GDP report is the beginning of a deeper economic contraction as the 'perfect storm' in Europe's electricity market hits the shore
11. August 2022
USA: The decline in factory gates inflation has started. More positive inflation surprises are in the pipeline
USA: A short note on the July inflation report
10. August 2022
USA: Inflation declines more than market expectations keeping alive the storyboard of 'investors believing policy rates will hit the peak soon' - although this will prove a false dawn
China does not have an inflation problem. Beijing benefits from cheap energy from its 'vassals' - for instance, Russia
9. August 2022
USA: Labour productivity declines at the fastest rate since WWII as the Federal Reserve talks about 'higher NAIRU'
USA: NFIB survey shows signs of falling inflation pressure. The labour market remains tight, as NAIRU is higher today than a decade ago
USA: Federal Reserve of New York confirms falling inflation ahead - but this will not prevent the US central bank from launching aggressive tightening
8. August 2022
China: Exports boost the trade surplus to an all-time high, as weak domestic demand puts a lid on imports. Foreign companies on the mainland face several dilemmas
5. August 2022
USA: The employment report shows that the Federal Reserve still has much more tightening in the pipeline in 2022
Nancy Pelosi has made the geopolitical situation even worse for the European Union
Euro-zone: There are tentative signs of manufacturing improvement, but 'talking-before-thinking' politicians could soon trigger a more dangerous supply chain disruption
4. August 2022
Germany: There are no signs of a rebound in industrial orders - but 'financial sentiment' improves due to 'inflation expectations' and 'peace talk'
3. August 2022
USA: The ISM service survey is short-term ammo to the stock market but also more evidence of a hawkish Federal Reserve despite lower inflation pressure
Euro-zone: Retail sales fell sharply in June. The headwinds will be even stronger in Q3
Turkey: Erdogan tightens his grip on power instead of fighting what increasingly looks like hyperinflation
2. August 2022
A short note on Nancy Pelosi's 'upcoming' Taiwan visit: Xi Jinping is forced to show some kind of 'comprehensive' response to avoid losing face
Switzerland: A steep decline in consumer sentiment says much about what is in the pipeline in the Eurozone
South Korea's inflation rate hits the highest level since 1998 - and Australia raises policy rates by 50 basis points
1. August 2022
USA: Manufacturing ISM survey shows no signs of recession - but factory gates inflation declines markedly
Germany: Retail sales plunge in June - and headwinds will get worse. Too-high retailer inventories will trigger 'sales' in Q3
China: The July PMI survey shows no signs of improvement, as political stubbornness prevails. 'Taiwan' is seen as a welcome diversion from domestic headwinds
29. July 2022
USA: The PCE indicator and Employment Cost Index show an increased risk of stronger second-round inflation. The ECI index rose at the fastest rate since 1984
Euro-zone: The periphery boosting growth and inflation in Q2 is a reminder to the ECB that negative policy rates will not do the job of taming inflation
Japan: The share of households seeing inflation above 5% jumps to a new all-time high of 62%. The labour market is short of workers - and Kuroda is short of excuses
France: The economy 'outshines' neighbouring Germany - and no signs yet of recession, but inflation will create trouble for household spending
28. July 2022
Euro-zone: EU Commission survey underscores the risk of a steep upcoming decline in economic activity - not least because of Germany
Sweden: A steep decline in consumer sentiment pulls the broader economic sentiment index lower
USA: The Federal Reserve raises policy rates, but, unfortunately, Mr Powell also shows signs of having second thoughts far too early
27. July 2022
The big read: Xi Jinping faces heavy headwinds after a series of policy mistakes
USA: There are no signs yet of a recession in capital spending statistics - but the best forward-looking indicators are headed South
Germany: GfK consumer sentiment index drops to a new all-time low. Falling income expectations bodes ill for private consumption in H2
France: Insee consumer confidence survey provides more evidence of a Eurozone recession
26. July 2022
USA: A sharp decline in new home sales boosts the risk of more than just a 'mild' recession
Sweden: Factory gates inflation hits a new record high, but the Riksbank turning into a 'prudent' central bank will support the currency
South Korea: Strong consumer demand boosts Q2 GDP growth. Highly successful arms exporters could make the next boost to the economy
25. July 2022
Britain: CBI Industrial Survey shows falling orders and lower inflation pressure at the factory gates
A disappointing IFO survey shows Putin successfully playing around with Germany. The risk of social and political tensions is on the rise. Beijing might provide an exit door
22. July 2022
A reluctant ECB President Lagarde is finally forced to do what is long overdue - but the decision comes too late to prevent a deep recession
21. July 2022
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows an accelerating risk of a recession in the second half of 2022. Inflation pressure declines
France: Business sentiment is slowing but still higher than in Germany. Inflation expectations declined sharply in July
Euro-zone: Consumer confidence hits a new all-time low. Italy is left on its own because, this time, the ECB's freedom of manoeuvring is limited
20. July 2022
China: Taiwan export orders underscore the extent of economic 'contraction' in mainland China.  Xi Jinping sits securely in the seat until he doesn't
Factory gate inflation has peaked, but Germany needs to pull itself together by abandoning energy naivety. Nuclear energy is now back on the agenda - finally
Britain: The June CPI report is yet another blow to an arrogant Bank of England that failed to see the forest for the trees
19. July 2022
The British labour market is still very tight, but the economy is headed towards a recession
USA: A sharp decline in the NAHB homebuilder index is more evidence of a 'recession coming'
15. July 2022
A short note on the yield curve: A firm commitment to bring down inflation will continue to invert the yield curve. This will be seen as positive news - until further notice
China: The economy contracts sharply in Q2 after a series of Xi policy mistakes. New Covid outbreaks in Guangdong
14. July 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation underscores the Federal Reserve's commitment to tighten monetary policy aggressively in H2
Germany: There are signs that annual inflation might peak soon. Nonetheless, significant ECB tightening is needed even though the recession is already here
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Sorensen: The new world order has turned everything upside down. Values are no longer on top of the foreign and security policy agenda
13. July 2022
USA: Soaring energy prices push headline inflation higher, while annual core inflation declines. The Federal Reserve remains on a path of significantly more tightening in H2
China trade report: Exporters are in a hurry to fulfil delayed orders from abroad. The underlying details show a weak manufacturing sector
The Bank of Korea's 0.5% message to the ECB: Listen and learn!
12. July 2022
USA: The NFIB small business survey shows tentative signs of more than just a 'normal recession'
Germany: ZEW investor survey underscores that Berlin and Brussels need to abandon a naive energy policy now - and not tomorrow. We are in an emergency situation
11. July 2022
China: Inflation is not the problem. The Covid strategy could trigger a financial crisis, political and social instability
8. July 2022
The US labour market report showing strong employment growth will keep the Federal Reserve on a path of more tightening - but wage inflation is relatively benign considering a tight labour market
A short note on the declining euro
Japan: Inflation pressure hits consumer confidence and service sentiment in June
7. July 2022
Germany: Industrial production - The biggest problem is no longer the supply chain but a deteriorating demand side. The solution is to abandon naivety
A brief and unfiltered note on the short-term outlook for the stock market - and the possibility of a positive inflation surprise in the United States, particularly
Insightview recommends taking a minor profit in the 'short Japanese stock market' strategy
6. July 2022
USA: ISM service survey indicates a 'soft landing', but it will also convince the Federal Reserve to stay the course
The bond market and US yield curve flattening - and still negative real bond yields in Japan and Germany
Germany: Industrial orders are supported by overseas demand, but contraction will continue in the second half of 2022. ECB creates the foundation for an existential EMU crisis in 2022
5. July 2022
Sweden: Service sentiment drops sharply as supply-side inflation will not go away. Consumer confidence plunges. More monetary tightening ahead
South Korea: Inflation hits the highest level since the Asian Crisis in 1997-1998. The Bank of Korea could opt for a 50 basis points rate hike in July
4. July 2022
The Swiss National Bank acts long before an indecisive European Central Bank even though Euro-zone inflation is much lower
Germany faces a tsunami with several waves. Fasten your seatbelt!
USA: 'Demand destruction' across the board will put a lid on inflation in the short run - and plunge the economy into recession in 2022
21. June 2022
Vacation - part 1 - from June 21 to July 1
20. June 2022
Germany: The extent of the ECB's 'policy mistake' is unforgivable, but what if this is a deliberate policy?
16. June 2022
Podcast interview with Carsten Rasmussen, Danish Brigadier General: Will Berlin-Paris-Rome make a '1938 deal' with Russia at the expense of Ukraine?[language: Danish]
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey boosts the probability of manufacturing recession to 100%
The Federal Reserve regains credibility, while the ECB is on a 'mission impossible'. The Bank of Japan is 'the last man standing'
15. June 2022
USA: Household spending takes another beating. Soon, a negative wealth effect will hit private consumption as well, but the Federal Reserve is finally doing the right thing
Japan: The manufacturing sector sees support from a weak yen. More than half of households now expect inflation of more than 5%
China: Beijing has a growth problem despite stronger-than-expected May statistics - and it is, to no small extent, man-made headwinds
14. June 2022
USA: Small business sentiment survey indicates significant inflation pressure, falling sales, tighter labour market - and more monetary tightening
The 'old guards' in charge of the European Union are sweetmeat for President Putin - but also good reasons to worry about what comes next
13. June 2022
Britain, EU and USA: The recession call is not 2023 but 2022. The geopolitical situation deteriorates as Taiwan-China tension increases
10. June 2022
USA: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey reveals the extent of the Federal Reserve's problem even though the central bank is finally doing the right thing
The US economy has a massive inflation problem, which will be followed by deflation from mid-2023. This is the price of having responded too late to inflation pressure
China: The inflation environment remains benign, but the economy is exposed to significant headwinds 
9. June 2022
ECB press conference: President Lagarde's performance was 'inflationary' because she did nothing to repair the credibility of the bank