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Public
13. May 2021
Podcast interview with Joerg Wuttke, Chief Representative of BASF China and President of the EU Chamber of Commerce China: What comes next for European companies in China?
12. May 2021
There will be no updates on May 13 and 14 due to public holidays in Denmark
USA: After today's inflation report, the Federal Reserve could suddenly look like 'Comical Ali', according to investors
China: Slow monetary aggregates should give rise to concern in Beijing
USA: JOLTS survey shows a huge mismatch between job offers and applicants. President Biden asks companies to raise wages
Britain: The economy accelerated sharply in March, but the vaccination process coming to a standstill poses a threat to a country with little ammo left
11. May 2021
USA: NFIB small business survey shows an upbeat short-term growth outlook but significant inflation pressure - and visible signs of skilled workers shortage
Germany: ZEW survey shows highly upbeat investors and a recovery that has finally started. Are investors underestimating the risk of inflation?
China: Factory gate inflation jumps as imported price pressure is on the rise. The recovery is slowly turning into headwinds for the global stock market
10. May 2021
Soaring commodity prices making significant inroads into households' 'real' consumption basket pose a threat to growth in 2022
Australia: The leading NAB business sentiment index jumps to a new all-time high. The AUD will benefit from soaring commodity prices, but 2022 could turn out quite differently
7. May 2021
USA: April labour market report disappoints big time. There are plenty of job offers but only a few workers are employed
Germany: The rebound has started. The Greens' Annalena Baerbock fascinates President Biden, but the rise of the Green Party also raises unanswered questions
China: The April trade report shows broad-based economic strength - but also increasing inflation pressure
6. May 2021
US stock market return chart: 1900-2021
Spain's regional Madrid election is a warning to incumbent governments in Europe that there comes a time after Covid19
Germany: Industrial orders jump in March, as the rebound accelerates. Most political parties turning 'green' leaves room for the liberal party, FDP
5. May 2021
USA: ISM service sentiment index fails to make a new record high in April, but inflation pressure continues higher
Podcast interview with China expert Joergen Delman: The situation for European companies in China has turned significantly more complicated after the EU-China investment deal has been put on hold by Brussels
Euro-zone: Price pressure at the factory gates is on the rise. Second-round inflation remains benign, so far, but imported inflation keeps coming
Sweden: Price pressure in the service sector increases to a new all-time high
4. May 2021
US trade report: Imports skyrocket to the highest since November 2018 as 'too much demand hunts too little supply. The US is headed for the 1980s 'twin deficit', which did not end well
A blinkered Federal Reserve could turn the United States into a 'late-cycle economy' in June or July. The 'gap' in the labour market is closing rapidly
3. May 2021
USA: The ISM manufacturing index declines from an all-time high, as inflation pressure continues higher
The Swiss and the Swedish PMI headline indexes propel to a new record high - the same applies to inflation pressure
China: PMI surveys continue to show robust growth. Beijing tries to keep its powder dry by setting sails to benefit from tailwinds created by Washington
Video: Inflation update with audio comments
29. April 2021
There will be no updates on April 30 due to a public holiday in Denmark
USA: The underlying details in a robust Q1 GDP report show very strong domestic demand. More in the pipeline in Q2 and Q3. Monetary policy is out-of-whack
Euro-zone survey shows a steep increase in business sentiment and soaring inflation expectations
Sweden: Strong Q1 growth will be followed by much stronger economic activity in Q2 and Q3. Factory gates inflation pressure at the highest since 1994
Podcast interview with Anders Ellemann Kristensen in Beijing, General Manager, Albatros Travel China: Why is China's population declining a decade earlier than expected?
28. April 2021
France: The leading consumer survey from Insee indicates a weak economic rebound
Germany: Consumer sentiment declines, as the mishandling of the pandemic weakens the 'expected rebound'. The financial costs of the US recovery will hit Europe
27. April 2021
US consumer confidence skyrockets to the highest level since February 2020. The share of respondents seeing 'plentiful of jobs' propels higher as the labour market improves
South Korea: The economy expands in Q1, but growth will accelerate in the coming quarters by courtesy of the White House, in particular
26. April 2021
Germany: The latest national lockdown and bottlenecks put a drag on business sentiment in April, according to the IFO Institute
23. April 2021
USA: New home sales report shows absolutely no signs of a slowing economy despite increasing mortgage rates
Britain: Households seeing light at the end of the tunnel boost retail sales in March. Public sector borrowing hits a new record high
Podcast interview with Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank: The rise of the Green Party and the implications for the German and the European economy and financial market
22. April 2021
USA: Jobless claims are on the decline, which will accelerate in the coming months. Labour shortage appears before the full recovery
Britain: Business optimism skyrockets to the highest level since 1973. Inflation pressure gains momentum
France: Manufacturing sentiment jumps to the highest since May 2019, but service sentiment declines sharply. Macron will soon have a 'spending ally' in Berlin
20. April 2021
Britain: Labour market progress is slow, but the economy remains on a path of bouncing back sharply in Q2 and Q3. The long-term growth outlook is less clear
Germany: Producer price inflation hits the highest since 2011. Significantly more inflation in the pipeline. Annalena Baerbock as Chancellor will make fiscal prudence disappear in Germany
19. April 2021
Japan: Exporters see a strong boost from Tokyo's 'biggest threat', China
16. April 2021
USA: Consumer sentiment increases in April. Household inflation expectations jump to the highest since 2012
USA: Housing starts jump to the highest since July 2006. 'Silence' is the Federal Reserve's only tool left
Japan's highly export-oriented stock market is among the star-performers, but soft data are only harbingers of a weak economic rebound
China: The Lunar New Year 'travel ban' put a lid on Q1 growth, but Beijing will maintain a hawkish policy stance
15. April 2021
USA: Retail sales propel higher at the fastest pace ever recorded, as fiscal and monetary policymakers fuel rather than put a lid on growth
USA: The cyclical indicator in the Philadelphia Fed survey jumped to the highest since 1992, as the economy sees no headwinds from policymakers
14. April 2021
Recommendation: Take profit in 'short 30-year Bund futures' strategy and re-enter 'short 30-year US government bond future' strategy
USA: 'Temporary inflation' or real inflation? What if the Federal Reserve suddenly gets second thoughts about fully financing the White House's fiscal expansion?
Australia: Consumer sentiment index skyrockets to the highest since 2010 despite the failure of Canberra's vaccination strategy. Soaring commodity prices are the biggest tailwind to the AUD
13. April 2021
USA: Consumer price inflation jumps to the highest since 2018, although the acceleration in global growth has only just started. Lumber prices hit a new record high
Germany: ZEW survey shows investor sentiment at an elevated level. Berlin is headed towards political turbulence in the coming months and years
China trade report: Exporters continue to benefit from the rest of the world bouncing back, but material costs are propelling higher
Australia benefits strongly as Washington 'just keeps giving'. All global growth engines are gaining momentum. Chinese imports from Australia hits a new all-time high
Podcast interview with Anne Sofie Schoett from the Royal Danish Defence College: What is President Erdogan's plan for Turkey?
12. April 2021
China: Ironically, the Federal Reserve could soon force Beijing to follow an unwanted path of 'Japanification'
China-USA-Asia: Increasing tensions have turned the East and the South China Sea into a powder keg
9. April 2021
USA: Producer prices jump much faster than market expectations. More is, of course, in the pipeline, as fiscal policymakers have created chaos in the global supply chain. Intermediate goods prices jump by 10% year-on-year
France: A steep decline in manufacturing output underscores President Macron's uphill struggle to get reelected in 2022. Marine Le Pen is exposed to multiple tailwinds, but fiscal expansion could change the situation
China: Producer price inflation jumps to the highest since July 2018. An accident waiting to happen in the South China Sea poses a significant future threat to the global supply chain
8. April 2021
TECHNICAL ISSUES with REFINITIV's financial data delay today's articles from Insightview
USA: Weekly jobless claims report is in line with significant labour market improvement. The economy could turn 'late-cycle' faster than expected
Japan: Household sentiment improves only slowly. The biggest threat is a rapid deterioration of the security situation in the East and the South China Sea, as Beijing moves fast to enforce its territorial claims
Germany: Industrial orders boosted by a strong rebound in domestic and Euro-zone orders for capital goods. Export orders to propel much higher in the coming months
7. April 2021
USA February trade deficit is on the rise: 'Customers assessing inventories to be too low' herald a steep increase in imports in 2021
The latest Covid19 status: 'Winners' and 'losers' - so far
6. April 2021
Spain: February tourist arrivals are 90% lower than one year ago. Only a question of 'when' Brussels will have to initiate more aggressive fiscal stimulus measures
USA: ISM service index skyrockets to a new all-time high. Inflation headed towards the range of at 'least 4% and 5%'
China: Caixin PMI service index jumps in March, as the mainland economy gains momentum. Beijing raises tensions with Japan, USA, Australia and 'neighbours' more than one thousand kilometres from the mainland
USA: The ISM manufacturing sentiment index jumps to the highest since 1983 as fiscal stimulus measures just keep coming
30. March 2021
There will be no updates on March 31, April 1,2 and 5
Podcast interview with The Economist's Berlin bureau chief, Tom Nuttall, about Germany's domestic and foreign policy when Angela Merkel steps down. How will politics change with the Green Party as part of the next government? The relationship to China?
EU Commission survey: Euro-zone business sentiment improves significantly. Companies' inflation expectations jump to the highest since 2011
Germany: Imported inflation jumps in February. The 'reservoir' of potential inflation is underestimated as fiscal stimulus measures and accumulated household savings will maintain bottlenecks in the global supply chain. Next stop: higher service inflation?
29. March 2021
The US and EU confronting China pose a risk to the supply side at the same time as the US personal savings rate hits the highest since the 1960s. US personal income jumps at the fastest rate since 1989
A short follow-up note to the IFO survey: Export expectations skyrocket to the highest since 2011, according to details released today
26. March 2021
Germany: The IFO survey shows a sharp improvement in the expectations index across the board - Replace 'short US 30-year T-bond future' with 'short 30-year Bund future'
25. March 2021
Germany: GfK consumer survey shows improvement shortly before a new lockdown and the subsequent U-turn. The CDU sees a plunge in support to the lowest level since 2000
France: Service sentiment jumps but shortly before a new Covid19-related lockdown. Inflation pressure propels higher. Paris and President Macron will soon need more aggressive fiscal stimulus measures
24. March 2021
USA: Weak durable goods orders. The biggest obstacles to the economy are supply and capacity – and the rebound has not even started
23. March 2021
USA: New home sales plunge as soaring material costs and low supply put a drag on housing activity
Britain: Industrial optimism skyrockets in March. The same applies to inflation expectations
The conflict between China and the rest of the world. What 'we do not know' and what 'the Chinese think they know' pose a significant risk to the financial market. A game changer?
Insightview recommends taking short-term profits in the 'short US 30-year bond future' strategy
22. March 2021
USA: Buoyant house prices are a function of monetary policy in the second half of 2020. Higher bond yields will create headwinds in 2022 and beyond
Taiwanese export order statistics show the steepest increase in European demand on record. China sees a sharp increase in FDI to a new record high 
A brief note on Turkey: The 'master of value destruction' strikes again. Is Erdogan creating room to become the next 'core leader'?
19. March 2021
Turkey is forced to raise key policy rates again, as the real problem does not disappear unless he is forced to do so
China: Fiscal revenue statistics show a 'solid' economic rebound but no signs yet of a 2010-like recovery
Britain: Consumer confidence skyrockets in March, as there is more light at the end of the tunnel. Nonetheless, more stimulus measures will be needed in the second half of 2021
18. March 2021
US bond market sell-off: The upcoming bond supply and negative real yield have taken over from inflation expectations as the main driver
USA: The regional Philadelphia Fed headline index propels to a new all-time high. Inflation expectations skyrocket to a record high
Australia: The strong economic recovery raises the question of whether monetary policy is too loose
17. March 2021
USA: Housing starts and permits plunge in February due to supply shortage and soaring material costs
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows further improvement in manufacturing and service sentiment. More to come sponsored by the Biden-administration