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30. July 2021
US personal income and consumption report shows elevated inflation pressure but not enough to worry the Federal Reserve, at least not yet
Euro-zone Q2 growth propelled higher by countries in the periphery despite a slow rebound in tourism
France: The economy shows only a muted rebound in Q2 after flat growth in Q1. Real purchasing power erosion poses a bigger short-term threat than the delta-variants
29. July 2021
USA: Q2 GDP report disappoints, not least due to a record-high GDP deflator. More 'transitory' inflation is in the pipeline. Is stagflation around the corner?
EU Commission survey: Soaring household inflation expectations hit the highest level since 2012, as ECB policy turns 'demand destructive'
France: Factory-gate inflation continues gaining momentum sponsored by a European Central Bank increasingly out of touch with the reality on the ground
28. July 2021
France: The 'net effect' of aggressive global stimulus measures are slowly creating headwinds to households - Insee
Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will, once again, be forced to admit that he was wrong. Richmond Fed's 'prices paid' index skyrockets in July
27. July 2021
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey shows significant inflation pressure but not necessarily 'demand destructive' - at least not yet
USA: The corporate spending recovery is still intact, but it has, so far, been a disappointment considering excessively loose monetary policy
South Korea: Strong Q2 growth makes leeway for the Bank of Korea to raise policy rates in August
China's corporate sector sees plenty of headwinds. Now, the education sector feels the heat from Beijing. Even Stephen Roach warns about the direction of Beijing
26. July 2021
USA: New home sales report shows more signs that the Federal Reserve is slowly turning into the main sponsor of headwinds to the economy
Germany: IFO survey underscores the ECB's policy mistake by focusing on the demand side. Bottlenecks in the supply chain are the main problem, according to IFO
23. July 2021
Soon, the margin squeeze in the manufacturing sector could also hit the service sector sponsored by irresponsible central banks out of touch with economic reality
22. July 2021
USA: Existing home prices continued to increase rapidly in June, but house price inflation has peaked
France: Business sentiment continues to improve, as demand is no longer a problem. 'Supply difficulties' skyrocket to the highest since 2000
Perversely, at the same time ECB's Lagarde considers new stimulus measures, the Dutch unemployment rate approaches an all-time low and home prices an all-time high
21. July 2021
Britain is walking a delicate balancing act as higher inflation reduces the room for maneuvring
The 'Australian case' is a warning to Europe and the United States to prepare for 'winter is coming'
20. July 2021
Taiwan and South Korea continue to benefit from a 'cutting corners policy' in the United States and Europe 
Germany: Producer price inflation hits the highest level since January 1982. Core inflation also hits a new record high
Covid-update: Is 'winter coming' before 'summer has even started?'
19. July 2021
USA: Aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures turn counterproductive. Households' inflation expectations jump, according to UoM consumer sentiment survey
16. July 2021
USA: Retail sales jump in June, as households see plenty of tailwinds, but inflation poses a problem unless wages are on the rise
The fundamental support for the US dollar is eroding rapidly
15. July 2021
USA: The regional Philadelphia Fed survey continues to show solid growth and inflation at an elevated level
China's economy shows robust growth in Q2, but officials warn about dark clouds on the horizon
14. July 2021
USA: The Federal Reserve ignoring soaring inflation as 'transitory' could be in for a significant surprise because the supply side stays put
Britain: Inflation continuing upward trend in June creates the foundation for monetary U-turn later in 2021
13. July 2021
USA: Inflation jumps beyond market expectations in June, as 'transitory' turns into 'transitory for longer'. Core inflation hits the highest level since 1991
USA: NFIB survey shows bottlenecks and 'inflation everywhere', but no signs of higher corporate spending
China: The June trade report shows a buoyant economy, but other factors may also be at play when it comes to strong imports
Global Chart Update
12. July 2021
Japan: A sharp increase in machinery orders shows the rebound is on track shortly before the general election - but this is not a strong recovery
China's RRR cut is more than just a 'technical move'. Beijing fears an abrupt growth slowdown. China in easing mode changes the situation
9. July 2021
Britain: Multiple bottlenecks and labour shortage rather than new Covid variants put a lid on growth
China: A benign inflation picture opens a welcome window of opportunity for monetary policymakers in Beijing at the right time
8. July 2021
Japan's Economy Watcher Survey shows a strong rebound in service sentiment, but the long-term outlook is weak. Japan's is a must-read case study for EU and US policymakers
Podcast interview with China expert Joergen Delman: The Party that was not meant to be
7. July 2021
Recommendation: Taking 'significantly reduced' profit on short US 30-year bond future
Germany: Industrial output also disappoints in May, as bottlenecks put a drag on growth. That said, the growth outlook remains robust
6. July 2021
USA: ISM service survey disappoints, but inflation pressure stays at the highest level since 2005
Spain: The economic rebound is on track, but fiscal support measures from Brussels hit the shores far too late
Germany: Notoriously volatile industrial orders drop in May, but the 2021 outlook remains strong
5. July 2021
Turkey: Consumer prices rose sharply in June. PPI inflation jumps to 43% year-on-year
China: Caixin service PMI index drops to the lowest level since April 2020. Didi becomes the latest target of Beijing
2. July 2021
US labour market report: There are plenty of job offers, but the labour force bounces back far too slowly
Euro-zone: Producer prices jump at the fastest pace since 1997. Inflation pressure will stay for longer as long as suppliers believe in the 'transitory narrative'
The Bank of Korea will soon start the global 'monetary reversal game' - although the process has already started in the United States
1. July 2021
USA: Manufacturing sentiment stays at an elevated level, but inflation pressure continues making a new record high
Japan: The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey shows improvement but at a much slower pace than in the United States and Europe
30. June 2021
USA: A significant mismatch between the supply and the demand sides in the labour market puts a lid on actual employment growth, according to the ADP Employment report
China: Port congestion, the resurgence of Covid19 in Guangdong and Beijing's 'intervention' in the commodity market put a drag on PMI surveys
29. June 2021
Germany: Benign consumer price inflation in June, but households' inflation expectations jump to the highest since 2011
EU survey: Euro-zone economic sentiment index hits the highest in 21 years. Industrial and consumer inflation expectations jump
Sweden: Economic sentiment jumps to a new record high - and the same applies to inflation pressure
France: Consumer confidence jumps to the highest since March 2020. Employment expectations skyrocket
25. June 2021
USA: PCE inflation moves higher as inflation pressure is broadening
Germany: Households turning significantly more upbeat about the economy will create very strong growth in Q3
24. June 2021
The inflation storyboard: The Federal Reserve decides the outcome of 'part one' and 'part two'
Germany: IFO survey shows economic acceleration. Inflation pressure is on the rise
France: The composite business sentiment index jumps to the highest since 2007. Inflation pressure hits the highest since 1990
23. June 2021
USA: Affordability puts a lid on new home sales in May adding upward pressure on the number of unsold homes
Podcast interview: What have central banks done to the business cycle? An interview with Professor Torben M Andersen, former chairman of the Danish government's advisory Covid19 group
22. June 2021
USA: Existing home sales remain buoyant and prices are skyrocketing
Britain: The CBI industrial order index increases to the highest since 1988 while inflation expectations jump to the highest in the last 40 years
Euro-zone: Soaring Dutch consumer confidence is more evidence of a strong Euro-zone rebound in the second half of 2021
21. June 2021
USA: A 'bullish flattening' of the yield curve is not part of the storyboard - at least not yet
Germany and France: Political 'status quo' is not leading to long-overdue changes
18. June 2021
Germany: Core producer price inflation hits a new record high. The recovery in the labour market could trigger a monetary U-turn faster than expected by investors
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows short- and long-term inflation pressure at the highest since 1989. Monetary policy will prove 'transitory' but not inflation
16. June 2021
USA: The housing market is amidst an unfamiliar situation, as the Federal Reserve's weird monetary policy poses the biggest risk to the recovery
China: Anecdotal and statistical evidence shows a robust domestic economy benefiting from a China-hostile world and 'too good to be true' overseas stimulus measures
Britain: Inflation pressure gains momentum in May even though the 'real recovery' has not even started
15. June 2021
USA: Soon, producer prices staying at an elevated level will feed into consumer prices
A short note on container freight rates 'out of China'
Britain: A strong economic rebound combined with labour shortages boosts wages. The 'delta variant' could make 'some noise'
14. June 2021
Brazil is headed towards significantly higher policy rates as inflation hits the highest level since 2016 
11. June 2021
USA: Consumer confidence improves in June. Households see plenty of tailwinds in 2021
A short follow-up on US inflation and the bond market
10. June 2021
USA: Inflation jumps sharply in May as 'transitory price pressure' will not go away
British house price inflation hitting the highest since 1988 and evidence of more than just 'transitory inflation' trigger a significant warning from the Bank of England
9. June 2021
China: Producer price inflation jumps at the fastest rate since 2008. The 'base effect' from soaring pork prices in 2020 will keep CPI inflation low for a few more months 
8. June 2021
USA: The flipside of aggressive fiscal and monetary easing hits the shore. 'JOLTS job openings' skyrocket to a new all-time high
USA: NFIB small business survey shows increasing and broad-based price and wage inflation
Germany: ZEW shows investor sentiment has peaked, but tailwinds from central banks remain strong, at  least for the time being 
7. June 2021
Germany: Industrial orders show 'normalisation' as exporters benefit from other countries' stimulus measures
China: Local virus outbreaks in Guangdong and a shortage of containers out of China put a drag on exports
4. June 2021
USA: The labour market report disappoints again as plenty of job offers are not filled by enough applicants, but wage inflation is on the rise
A short update of Outlook 2021 - and the financial market implications
3. June 2021
USA: ISM service index increases to a new all-time high. Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since 2005 indicating consumer price inflation in the range of 5% to 6%
USA: ADP Employment Report shows a strong bounce in the labour market adding more pressure on the Federal Reserve to reverse policy
Watch out for the Riksbank and the Federal Reserve: Sweden's leading price indicators point towards inflation close to 5%. The Federal Reserve has made the first step towards tightening
Turkey: A panicking President Erdogan retakes charge of monetary policy to the disadvantage of the economy
2. June 2021
Euro-zone: Inflation at the factory gates jumps at the fastest rate since 2008. There is more in the pipeline, as policymakers still make tailwinds
1. June 2021
USA: A highly ambiguous manufacturing ISM survey shows strength but also 'supply chain related' weakness. Federal Reserve QE reduction will come sooner rather than later
Switzerland: The best leading indicators are harbingers of growth in the range of 5% to 8% in 2021. Price pressure jumps to the highest level since January 1995
British house prices skyrocket to a new all-time high, as households want more space. Central banks warning about house prices sound hollow