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18. March 2019
Japanese trade report offers no hope yet that China could soon 'save the world'
By Invitation: Order in Xi Jinping's Parliament
15. March 2019
THERE WILL BE NO UPDATES ON MARCH 15
China: Monthly house price inflation continues to slow but Beijing and local authorities will prevent outright price decline
14. March 2019
USA: The New home sales report in January does not give cause for recession concern in 2019
China: January-February economic statistics show weakness - The risk of lower residential house prices is on the rise unless PBOC acts more aggressively
13. March 2019
USA: Durable goods orders report still shows no signs of an upcoming recession
Euro-zone: Industrial output bounces back in January after a significant decline in inventories - The outlook deteriorates as Rome, Portugal and Malta opt for China
Japan: Machinery orders report boosts the probability of a recession in H1. China cannot help Japanese exporters because of only 'reluctant' easing measures
12. March 2019
Brazil: Surprisingly subdued inflation supports the currency, but Bolsonaro's temper poses a risk to the planned economic reforms
USA: Benign inflation continues to support US households' real purchasing power
USA: Small business sentiment survey shows tentative signs of a rebound. It will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to avoid the impact of quantitative tightening
11. March 2019
US January retail sales report surprises to the upside but an already weak December report was revised down
Germany: Industrial report disappoints in January. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer challenges Merkel and Paris with her own political agenda
Turkey plunges officially into recession in Q4. The outlook remains gloomy
China: Weak monetary expansion is partly because the hands of monetary decision-makers are tied up by the trade negotiations
8. March 2019
USA: A weak non-farm payroll number was expected but not that weak. Wage inflation is still on the rise and the unemployment rate fell in February
Germany: Industrial orders plunge as demand declines across the board in January
China: January-February trade report shows the boomerang 'frontloading in 2018' is now coming back with a vengeance
ECB press conference is a reminder to investors that the economy is on the same path as Japan. Political inaction in Brussels and Berlin make the periphery turn to the One Belt One Road Initiative
7. March 2019
Euro-zone: Q4 GDP details show a significant negative contribution from inventories
Japan: The Cabinet Office's 'Diffusion Index' heralds a deeper and prolonged period of contraction or recession
6. March 2019
USA: The trade deficit inflating is not a huge surprise considering the current policy mix. The ISM survey heralds an even higher deficit in H1
USA: Robust ADP employment growth in February. The growth outlook indicated by the ISM surveys heralds robust employment growth in the first half of 2019
Australia: Growth disappoints in Q4. The risk of economic contraction in Q1 is on the rise
5. March 2019
USA: Service sentiment jumps in February. ISM orders index skyrocketed to the highest level since 2005. The survey will keep the Fed biased towards tightening in 2019
Euro-zone: Lower inflation supports retail sales in January but the 'window of relief' is closing because of a higher oil price
China: Caixin service index falls sharply as Beijing lowers growth target. Beijing plans to fight the unavoidable
4. March 2019
Euro-zone: Benign inflation at the factory gates will make ECB's Draghi talk the euro lower as politicians will fail to take action
Turkey: Disturbingly high inflation and no signs of an economic rebound could trigger a new lira sell-off ahead of the upcoming local elections
1. March 2019
USA: The rebound in the ISM manufacturing sentiment index failed to continue in February. A steep decline in the production index should give rise to concern
European and US business sentiment: A short-lived rebound followed by the same problems as in November 2018
China: Caixin manufacturing survey shows a strong rebound in the domestic orders index
Japan: The unemployment rate has hit rock bottom as the economy will contract in the first half of 2019
Highly recommended: Podcast about the future of the European Union. Interview with thematic specialist Morten Springborg from CWorldWide
28. February 2019
USA: Surprisingly robust Q4 GDP growth report is also supported by the underlying details
Sweden: Strong net-exports boost growth in the last quarter of 2018
China: Manufacturing PMI index drops again as export sentiment takes a beating but there are tentative signs of stimulus measures
27. February 2019
India-Pakistan conflict escalation challenges US foreign policy
EU business and consumer survey shows tentative signs of 'stabilisation'
Italy has all the ingredients to trigger a serious crisis. The ECB is no longer there to help
A short update of the global outlook: The stock market could soon face the same situation as in November 2018
26. February 2019
USA: Housing starts report underscores very weak December-January. Federal Reserve U-turn will create short-term rebound which will be followed by two more rate hikes in 2019
France: Consumer confidence bounces back strongly as Yellow Vests demonstrations disappear and the labour market is strong. Inflation expectations soar
Germany: The economy faces the risk of 'technical recession' but households are still exposed to tailwinds
25. February 2019
China-USA trade deal: The interpretation and what comes next?
22. February 2019
Germany: A disappointing IFO survey will add more fuel to CDU's 'Germany First' strategy
China: House prices continued to increase in January, but the outlook is cloudy as 'excess supply' is on the rise
21. February 2019
USA: Durable goods orders are forecast to contract in the first quarter of 2019, but no signs yet of a collapse in corporate spending
USA: A steep decline in the Philadelphia Fed headline index shows profound manufacturing weakness in the first half of 2019, but no signs of recession
China: Weak PBOC balance sheet data raises doubt about the strength of the bank lending report in January
France: The economy is supported by improving domestic sentiment, which is just enough to offset global headwinds
20. February 2019
Turkey: Consumer confidence continuing to decline spells trouble for the lira
Japan: Frontloading in 2018 has turned into a boomerang coming back with a vengeance in 2019
Euro-zone: Dutch consumer confidence declining to the lowest level since February 2015 bodes ill for European private consumption in H1
19. February 2019
A short note on the US-China trade negotiations: Do not underestimate Beijing's long-term determination
Germany: ZEW survey shows no signs of a rebound. Berlin faces reality check
Britain: The economy performs relatively well in comparison with other EU countries but long-term risks are building. A comeback to the 'Social Democratic Party'?
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey takes a significant beating in February
18. February 2019
Japan: Tokyo is forced to walk further out on the ice floe
15. February 2019
USA: Consumer sentiment bouncing back brings some relief after a disappointing December retail sales report
USA: Manufacturing output falls sharply in January. The best forward-looking indicators are harbingers of a rebound in April or May
China: Distorted January data shows only 'tentative signs' of stronger lending
China: Inflation report is a reflection of a very weak economy. A trade deal is needed but Beijing cannot afford to make significant concessions
14. February 2019
USA: Surprisingly weak retail sales report raises several new questions in the stock market. Too weak consumer spending overshadows Federal Reserve sitting tight
Turkey: Industrial output contracts at the fastest rate since 2009. The risk of a deep recession is on the rise
Japan: The economy bounces back in Q4 but it fails to recoup economic contraction seen in Q3 
China: Lunar New Year distorted trade report continues to show underlying weakness
Germany: The economy escapes recession as growth was zero in Q4. The outlook is gloomy and Berlin has no strategy
13. February 2019
USA: Moderate headline inflation provides a boost to workers' real purchasing power. A weak trade deal will face severe domestic criticism
Brazil: Buoyant business and consumer sentiment remain to be seen in real economic activity. Hospitalised President trigger an internal power struggle
Euro-zone: Industrial production plunges at the fastest rate since 2009. The political response should give rise to concern
South Korea: Unemployment rate jumps to the highest level since 2009
12. February 2019
USA: NFIB small business six-month outlook index plunges to the lowest level since the Presidential election in November 2016
11. February 2019
Britain: The economy barely expanded in the last quarter of 2018. The outlook for the first half of 2019 deteriorates
Germany: Tensions are on the rise in Berlin as SPD moves to the left and CDU turns to the right
8. February 2019
Brazil: Inflation remains surprisingly benign in January. Pension draft plans to raise the minimum retirement age significantly to 65
Italy: The recession will be more profound and longer
Global: The worst political situation since WWII
Japan: The economy faces an increasing risk of technical recession in H1
7. February 2019
Spain: Industrial output plunges in December. Brussels sponsored fiscal stimulus plan is highly likely ahead of the EP elections
Germany: Manufacturing sector has moved into the 'contraction zone'. Policy-mistakes are, not surprisingly, in the pipeline
6. February 2019
USA: November trade deficit with China hits a new record high. A 'temporary' trade deal is highly likely but not sustainable
Germany: Industrial orders fell in December at the fastest rate since 2012. State capitalism appears to be the answer to economic headwinds
Highly recommended: Podcast about China - Interview with Klaus Anker Petersen, Brand House, about investment opportunities in digitising China - 31 min
5. February 2019
USA: ISM service index declines more than market expectations, but a soaring employment index indicates robust labour demand
Sweden: More evidence of an abrupt decline in economic momentum adds more 'Riksbank risk' to the currency
Australia: Growth slowdown gains momentum ahead of federal elections
4. February 2019
A second short update of the Outlook 2019: Complacency prevails in the money and bond market
Turkey: Stubbornly high inflation spells trouble for President Erdogan ahead of local elections in March  
1. February 2019
USA: Manufacturing ISM index bounces back. Production index skyrockets
USA: A very strong January employment report, but the December data was revised down sharply. Low wage inflation
Sweden: PMI survey heralds weak European growth. Broad-based domestic weakness makes a 'fundamentally' cheap Swedish currency vulnerable
China: Caixin PMI survey is a precise reflection of anecdotal evidence from the mainland. PBOC could cut policy rates within the next two weeks
31. January 2019
USA: New home sales bouncing back sharply in November provides relief to the stock market
Brazil: Households are turning highly upbeat about future employment. A cheap currency provides some 'protection' to Brazilian assets
Euro-zone: Growth slows significantly in Q4. Italy plunges into recession
China: Beijing's fiscal and monetary stimulus measures fail to trigger a sharp rebound in manufacturing business sentiment
30. January 2019
USA: ADP Employment Report showing a very strong labour market keeps the Federal Reserve on a path of monetary normalisation
EU business and consumer survey shows steeper-than-expected decline in Euro-zone sentiment, but the details are 'less downbeat'