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24. April 2019
Australia: Low inflation, falling house prices, the 'missing China effect' and collateral damage from US-China trade deal add downwards pressure on the Australian dollar
Germany: IFO survey pictures an economy on the edge of recession; manufacturing sentiment drops to the lowest level since 2012
France: Manufacturing sentiment drops to the lowest level since June 2015
23. April 2019
USA: New home sales report still shows no signs of an upcoming recession
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey heralds short-term strength followed by manufacturing contraction in Q1-2020
'China proxies' show no signs yet of a rebound in manufacturing activity
17. April 2019
US trade deficit declines in February as front-loading in H2-2018 and weak demand in Q1 put a drag on imports in H1-2019
Japan: The misery continues
China: Strong industrial production and construction in March 'save' the Q1 GDP report, but the 'costs-of-growth' are on the rise
16. April 2019
USA: Industrial output disappoints in March; there are no significant signs of a rebound
German ZEW survey shows investors see 'hope' as the main driver - 'Facts' still point further downwards
China's highly manipulated house prices rose in March - Beijing walks a delicate balancing act
15. April 2019
US Empire State headline index bounces back, but the six-month outlook index plunges
Unplugged 'Travel Notes': President Xi Jinping moves backwards as the Chinese people moves forwards 
Turkey is an accident waiting to happen on the edge of Europe: Unemployment jumps to the highest level since 2009
China: The latest economic data still mirror an L-shaped growth 'recovery' which was confirmed by last week's trip to the mainland
5. April 2019
There will be no updates from April 8 to April 12, as the editor will be on a trip to China
USA: March labour report is neither too hot nor too cold, but the 'Q3 and beyond' employment outlook is weak
Japan: Wages decline despite the lowest unemployment rate since the early 1990s. The outlook remains weak and consumer confidence is on the decline
Germany: Industrial output data better than market expectations, but the IFO outlook remains weak
4. April 2019
Turkey now faces several headwinds at the same time. Inflation and politics will create a new lira sell-off
Germany: Industrial orders plunge in February. The manufacturing outlook remains weak, according to IFO
3. April 2019
USA: The ISM service index drops in March after a surprisingly strong February survey. A strong employment index continues to show a tight labour market
USA: A weak ADP Employment in March was partially mitigated by an up-revised February number. A lagging labour market will continue to tighten in 2019
Euro-zone: Strong retail sales as households are not yet exposed to headwinds
China: The Caixin service PMI index bounces back after a steep decline in February. The debt situation worsens, according to CASS
2. April 2019
USA: In contrast to consumer spending, corporate spending is not expected to bounce back in 2019
Euro-zone: Producer price inflation heading significantly lower will keep monetary policy accommodative in the foreseeable future
Presentation: The most disruptive time since World War II
1. April 2019
USA: Manufacturing ISM index bounces back, but the details show only a weak rebound
USA: February retail sales report boosts the risk of zero growth in Q1
Europe: The rebound is long in coming. Swiss manufacturing PMI index falls sharply close to contraction
The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey shows a steep decline in manufacturing sentiment
China: Both leading manufacturing PMI surveys show a sharp rebound in sentiment in March
29. March 2019
USA: New home sales report is still not a harbinger of recession. This also makes it difficult for the Fed to change monetary policy
Spain is riding high on Rajoy's reforms, but the foundation for a stronger far-right is on the rise
Japan: Industrial output increases more than expected in February, but the outlook remains gloomy
28. March 2019
There were no Daily Macro updates on Thursday, March 28
27. March 2019
USA: The trade deficit will decline in the first quarter as a consequence of front-loading in 2018. A 'sustainable' trade deal seems highly unlikely
Italy: Manufacturing sentiment continues to contract. Berlin-Paris hypocrisy will keep Rome on path of even stronger China-Italy co-operation
China: A sharp decline in corporate profits reflects a weaker economy than perceived by global investors
26. March 2019
USA: Consumer confidence plunges in March. The share of households seeing plentiful-of-jobs also falls sharply
USA: Housing starts and Case-Shiller reports continue to show weakness in the housing sector
France: Business sentiment shows only tentative signs of growth stabilisation in March. 'Money talks' as Xi Jinping visits France
A short note on anecdotal evidence from China: Deterioration or Stabilisation?
25. March 2019
USA: Dallas Fed manufacturing survey shows no signs of a sustainable bounce in sentiment. The capital expenditure plans index plunges
Brazil: The news flow erodes Bolsonaro's reform process
Germany: IFO survey shows a sharp bounce in service and retailer sentiment, but manufacturing optimism continues to decline
22. March 2019
USA: Existing home sales skyrocketed in February as households benefit from falling mortgage yields
Morning Briefing email problem solved
Japan: Official inflation is benign even though households' inflation expectations hit the highest level since July 2015
21. March 2019
USA: The details in the Philadelphia Fed survey boost the probability of recession in H1-2020 which is reinforced by six more months of Fed balance sheet reduction
Britain: Economic statistics continue to defy 'hell breaks loose' scenario
Berlin and Paris act as China turns into a threat to EU's 'single market' 
20. March 2019
China: Taiwanese and other 'activity indicators' do not show signs of stronger growth on the mainland
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey slowly follows the same path as the Diffusion Index, which boosts the risk of recession in H1
19. March 2019
Weak US factory orders in January - There are surprisingly few signs of a rebound in sentiment in the regional surveys
Germany: ZEW survey shows tentative signs that the economy might have hit rock bottom - Belt-and-Road-Initiative poses a 'threat' to German and French champions
18. March 2019
Japanese trade report offers no hope yet that China could soon 'save the world'
By Invitation: Order in Xi Jinping's Parliament
15. March 2019
THERE WILL BE NO UPDATES ON MARCH 15
China: Monthly house price inflation continues to slow but Beijing and local authorities will prevent outright price decline
14. March 2019
USA: The New home sales report in January does not give cause for recession concern in 2019
China: January-February economic statistics show weakness - The risk of lower residential house prices is on the rise unless PBOC acts more aggressively
13. March 2019
USA: Durable goods orders report still shows no signs of an upcoming recession
Euro-zone: Industrial output bounces back in January after a significant decline in inventories - The outlook deteriorates as Rome, Portugal and Malta opt for China
Japan: Machinery orders report boosts the probability of a recession in H1. China cannot help Japanese exporters because of only 'reluctant' easing measures
12. March 2019
Brazil: Surprisingly subdued inflation supports the currency, but Bolsonaro's temper poses a risk to the planned economic reforms
USA: Benign inflation continues to support US households' real purchasing power
USA: Small business sentiment survey shows tentative signs of a rebound. It will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to avoid the impact of quantitative tightening
11. March 2019
US January retail sales report surprises to the upside but an already weak December report was revised down
Germany: Industrial report disappoints in January. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer challenges Merkel and Paris with her own political agenda
Turkey plunges officially into recession in Q4. The outlook remains gloomy
China: Weak monetary expansion is partly because the hands of monetary decision-makers are tied up by the trade negotiations
8. March 2019
USA: A weak non-farm payroll number was expected but not that weak. Wage inflation is still on the rise and the unemployment rate fell in February
Germany: Industrial orders plunge as demand declines across the board in January
China: January-February trade report shows the boomerang 'frontloading in 2018' is now coming back with a vengeance
ECB press conference is a reminder to investors that the economy is on the same path as Japan. Political inaction in Brussels and Berlin make the periphery turn to the One Belt One Road Initiative
7. March 2019
Euro-zone: Q4 GDP details show a significant negative contribution from inventories
Japan: The Cabinet Office's 'Diffusion Index' heralds a deeper and prolonged period of contraction or recession
6. March 2019
USA: The trade deficit inflating is not a huge surprise considering the current policy mix. The ISM survey heralds an even higher deficit in H1
USA: Robust ADP employment growth in February. The growth outlook indicated by the ISM surveys heralds robust employment growth in the first half of 2019
Australia: Growth disappoints in Q4. The risk of economic contraction in Q1 is on the rise
5. March 2019
USA: Service sentiment jumps in February. ISM orders index skyrocketed to the highest level since 2005. The survey will keep the Fed biased towards tightening in 2019
Euro-zone: Lower inflation supports retail sales in January but the 'window of relief' is closing because of a higher oil price
China: Caixin service index falls sharply as Beijing lowers growth target. Beijing plans to fight the unavoidable
4. March 2019
Euro-zone: Benign inflation at the factory gates will make ECB's Draghi talk the euro lower as politicians will fail to take action
Turkey: Disturbingly high inflation and no signs of an economic rebound could trigger a new lira sell-off ahead of the upcoming local elections
1. March 2019
USA: The rebound in the ISM manufacturing sentiment index failed to continue in February. A steep decline in the production index should give rise to concern
European and US business sentiment: A short-lived rebound followed by the same problems as in November 2018
China: Caixin manufacturing survey shows a strong rebound in the domestic orders index
Japan: The unemployment rate has hit rock bottom as the economy will contract in the first half of 2019
Highly recommended: Podcast about the future of the European Union. Interview with thematic specialist Morten Springborg from CWorldWide
28. February 2019
USA: Surprisingly robust Q4 GDP growth report is also supported by the underlying details
Sweden: Strong net-exports boost growth in the last quarter of 2018
China: Manufacturing PMI index drops again as export sentiment takes a beating but there are tentative signs of stimulus measures
27. February 2019
India-Pakistan conflict escalation challenges US foreign policy
EU business and consumer survey shows tentative signs of 'stabilisation'
Italy has all the ingredients to trigger a serious crisis. The ECB is no longer there to help
A short update of the global outlook: The stock market could soon face the same situation as in November 2018