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Public
15. June 2021
USA: Soon, producer prices staying at an elevated level will feed into consumer prices
A short note on container freight rates 'out of China'
Britain: A strong economic rebound combined with labour shortages boosts wages. The 'delta variant' could make 'some noise'
14. June 2021
THERE WILL BE NO UPDATES ON JUNE 17
Brazil is headed towards significantly higher policy rates as inflation hits the highest level since 2016 
11. June 2021
USA: Consumer confidence improves in June. Households see plenty of tailwinds in 2021
A short follow-up on US inflation and the bond market
10. June 2021
USA: Inflation jumps sharply in May as 'transitory price pressure' will not go away
British house price inflation hitting the highest since 1988 and evidence of more than just 'transitory inflation' trigger a significant warning from the Bank of England
9. June 2021
China: Producer price inflation jumps at the fastest rate since 2008. The 'base effect' from soaring pork prices in 2020 will keep CPI inflation low for a few more months 
8. June 2021
USA: The flipside of aggressive fiscal and monetary easing hits the shore. 'JOLTS job openings' skyrocket to a new all-time high
USA: NFIB small business survey shows increasing and broad-based price and wage inflation
Germany: ZEW shows investor sentiment has peaked, but tailwinds from central banks remain strong, at  least for the time being 
7. June 2021
Germany: Industrial orders show 'normalisation' as exporters benefit from other countries' stimulus measures
China: Local virus outbreaks in Guangdong and a shortage of containers out of China put a drag on exports
4. June 2021
USA: The labour market report disappoints again as plenty of job offers are not filled by enough applicants, but wage inflation is on the rise
A short update of Outlook 2021 - and the financial market implications
3. June 2021
USA: ISM service index increases to a new all-time high. Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since 2005 indicating consumer price inflation in the range of 5% to 6%
USA: ADP Employment Report shows a strong bounce in the labour market adding more pressure on the Federal Reserve to reverse policy
Watch out for the Riksbank and the Federal Reserve: Sweden's leading price indicators point towards inflation close to 5%. The Federal Reserve has made the first step towards tightening
Turkey: A panicking President Erdogan retakes charge of monetary policy to the disadvantage of the economy
2. June 2021
Euro-zone: Inflation at the factory gates jumps at the fastest rate since 2008. There is more in the pipeline, as policymakers still make tailwinds
1. June 2021
USA: A highly ambiguous manufacturing ISM survey shows strength but also 'supply chain related' weakness. Federal Reserve QE reduction will come sooner rather than later
Switzerland: The best leading indicators are harbingers of growth in the range of 5% to 8% in 2021. Price pressure jumps to the highest level since January 1995
British house prices skyrocket to a new all-time high, as households want more space. Central banks warning about house prices sound hollow
31. May 2021
Germany: Consumer price report surprises to the upside. The risk of second-round inflation is still low, but no signs of softening in imported inflation
Japan: Industrial output bounces back, but the 'recovery' will disappoint. Consumer confidence declines
China: The official PMI survey shows robust growth, but inflation pressure at the highest level since 2010 bodes ill for growth in 2022 and beyond
28. May 2021
USA: Personal income-consumption report shows a significant increase in the PCE price index adding more pressure on the Federal Reserve to change monetary policy
Euro-zone survey: Business and consumer sentiment jumps in May. Inflation pressure at the factory gates hits the highest since 1985
Federal Reserve dissent intensifies: 'Tapering' is more often mentioned by Fed officials. Do not even mention 'quantitative tightening'
27. May 2021
USA: Q1 GDP report revision shows inflation pressure at the highest level since Q1, 2007, even though the 'recovery party' has not started yet
A follow-up note on 'transitory': The Federal Reserve sacrificing the credibility of fiat money will have huge consequences if the 'transitory call' proves wrong 
Sweden: Business sentiment and price pressure jump to the highest ever recorded: When do central banks say what everyone already knows?
26. May 2021
The financial market needs more evidence of 'transitory'. South Korean business survey does not provide it
France: The composite Insee business sentiment index skyrockets to the highest since April 2018. Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since 2011
25. May 2021
USA: Soaring cost pressure is the main drag on the housing market, according to today's 'new home sales report'. The Conference Board consumer survey shows increasing inflation pressure and a very tight labour market
Germany: A sharp improvement in the IFO service sentiment index is a harbinger of very strong growth in Q2 and Q3
21. May 2021
Euro-zone: The leading consumer confidence index jumps to the highest level since October 2018
USA: Existing home sales report shows home prices increasing at the fastest annual rate since the 1960s. The Federal Reserve is far behind the curve
Britain: Retail sales jump in April. Skyrocketing consumer confidence shows more in the pipeline. Europe headed for a positive rebound surprise will change the monetary outlook
20. May 2021
USA: The Philadelphia Fed headline index plunges, as expected, but inflation pressure jumps to a new record high
The Federal Reserve plays with fire: Talking about tapering amidst the risk of an 'automatic liquidity squeeze' should gain attention among investors
Japan: Exports bounce back, but there are no signs of self-propelled recovery. Plenty of headwinds, not least as the US Federal Reserve talks about 'tapering'
19. May 2021
Britain: The rise in consumer prices has started. Central banks decide for how long
18. May 2021
US housing report shows weakness as soaring commodity prices delay 'new starts'
The Euro-zone economy contracting in Q1 will bounce back in Q2, but infrastructure spending needed in H2 to make the economic recovery self-propelled
Japan: A failed Covid19 strategy hits the economy in Q1. Only 3.5% of the population has received the first vaccination shot
17. May 2021
The headline index in the US Empire State survey barely changed in May, but price pressure jumped to a new all-time high
China faces the same bottlenecks as the rest of the world, but the leading activity indicators remain strong
Podcast interview with Ulrik Bie, Berlingske's economic editor and former Chief Economist at IIF and Nykredit: Are monetary policymakers part of the problem rather than the solution?
13. May 2021
There will be no updates on May 13 and 14 due to public holidays in Denmark
Podcast interview with Joerg Wuttke, Chief Representative of BASF China and President of the EU Chamber of Commerce China: What comes next for European companies in China?
12. May 2021
USA: After today's inflation report, the Federal Reserve could suddenly look like 'Comical Ali', according to investors
China: Slow monetary aggregates should give rise to concern in Beijing
USA: JOLTS survey shows a huge mismatch between job offers and applicants. President Biden asks companies to raise wages
Britain: The economy accelerated sharply in March, but the vaccination process coming to a standstill poses a threat to a country with little ammo left
11. May 2021
USA: NFIB small business survey shows an upbeat short-term growth outlook but significant inflation pressure - and visible signs of skilled workers shortage
Germany: ZEW survey shows highly upbeat investors and a recovery that has finally started. Are investors underestimating the risk of inflation?
China: Factory gate inflation jumps as imported price pressure is on the rise. The recovery is slowly turning into headwinds for the global stock market
10. May 2021
Soaring commodity prices making significant inroads into households' 'real' consumption basket pose a threat to growth in 2022
Australia: The leading NAB business sentiment index jumps to a new all-time high. The AUD will benefit from soaring commodity prices, but 2022 could turn out quite differently
7. May 2021
USA: April labour market report disappoints big time. There are plenty of job offers but only a few workers are employed
Germany: The rebound has started. The Greens' Annalena Baerbock fascinates President Biden, but the rise of the Green Party also raises unanswered questions
China: The April trade report shows broad-based economic strength - but also increasing inflation pressure
6. May 2021
US stock market return chart: 1900-2021
Spain's regional Madrid election is a warning to incumbent governments in Europe that there comes a time after Covid19
Germany: Industrial orders jump in March, as the rebound accelerates. Most political parties turning 'green' leaves room for the liberal party, FDP
5. May 2021
USA: ISM service sentiment index fails to make a new record high in April, but inflation pressure continues higher
Podcast interview with China expert Joergen Delman: The situation for European companies in China has turned significantly more complicated after the EU-China investment deal has been put on hold by Brussels
Euro-zone: Price pressure at the factory gates is on the rise. Second-round inflation remains benign, so far, but imported inflation keeps coming
Sweden: Price pressure in the service sector increases to a new all-time high
4. May 2021
US trade report: Imports skyrocket to the highest since November 2018 as 'too much demand hunts too little supply. The US is headed for the 1980s 'twin deficit', which did not end well
A blinkered Federal Reserve could turn the United States into a 'late-cycle economy' in June or July. The 'gap' in the labour market is closing rapidly
3. May 2021
USA: The ISM manufacturing index declines from an all-time high, as inflation pressure continues higher
The Swiss and the Swedish PMI headline indexes propel to a new record high - the same applies to inflation pressure
China: PMI surveys continue to show robust growth. Beijing tries to keep its powder dry by setting sails to benefit from tailwinds created by Washington
Video: Inflation update with audio comments
29. April 2021
There will be no updates on April 30 due to a public holiday in Denmark
USA: The underlying details in a robust Q1 GDP report show very strong domestic demand. More in the pipeline in Q2 and Q3. Monetary policy is out-of-whack
Euro-zone survey shows a steep increase in business sentiment and soaring inflation expectations
Sweden: Strong Q1 growth will be followed by much stronger economic activity in Q2 and Q3. Factory gates inflation pressure at the highest since 1994
Podcast interview with Anders Ellemann Kristensen in Beijing, General Manager, Albatros Travel China: Why is China's population declining a decade earlier than expected?
28. April 2021
France: The leading consumer survey from Insee indicates a weak economic rebound
Germany: Consumer sentiment declines, as the mishandling of the pandemic weakens the 'expected rebound'. The financial costs of the US recovery will hit Europe
27. April 2021
US consumer confidence skyrockets to the highest level since February 2020. The share of respondents seeing 'plentiful of jobs' propels higher as the labour market improves
South Korea: The economy expands in Q1, but growth will accelerate in the coming quarters by courtesy of the White House, in particular
26. April 2021
Germany: The latest national lockdown and bottlenecks put a drag on business sentiment in April, according to the IFO Institute
23. April 2021
USA: New home sales report shows absolutely no signs of a slowing economy despite increasing mortgage rates
Britain: Households seeing light at the end of the tunnel boost retail sales in March. Public sector borrowing hits a new record high
Podcast interview with Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank: The rise of the Green Party and the implications for the German and the European economy and financial market
22. April 2021
USA: Jobless claims are on the decline, which will accelerate in the coming months. Labour shortage appears before the full recovery
Britain: Business optimism skyrockets to the highest level since 1973. Inflation pressure gains momentum
France: Manufacturing sentiment jumps to the highest since May 2019, but service sentiment declines sharply. Macron will soon have a 'spending ally' in Berlin
20. April 2021
Britain: Labour market progress is slow, but the economy remains on a path of bouncing back sharply in Q2 and Q3. The long-term growth outlook is less clear
Germany: Producer price inflation hits the highest since 2011. Significantly more inflation in the pipeline. Annalena Baerbock as Chancellor will make fiscal prudence disappear in Germany
19. April 2021
Japan: Exporters see a strong boost from Tokyo's 'biggest threat', China
16. April 2021
USA: Consumer sentiment increases in April. Household inflation expectations jump to the highest since 2012
USA: Housing starts jump to the highest since July 2006. 'Silence' is the Federal Reserve's only tool left
Japan's highly export-oriented stock market is among the star-performers, but soft data are only harbingers of a weak economic rebound