11. August 2026
NFIB's optimism recovery is a capital story, not necessarily a labour story
There will be no updates on August 12-13 (business trip). Also, there will be no updates on 24-28 August and 14-18 September (vacation)
10. August 2026
Not AI yet: America's labour market muddle is about bonds, Iran and a nervous Treasury
7. August 2026
China's July trade data show a country winning the world by exporting domestic excess capacity, but unable to fix its own living room
6. August 2026
Behind Germany's headline order jump sits a capital-hungry AI and defence buildout
4. August 2026
America's factories are booming, but only where AI touches them: The Fed's excuse not to raise rates in September is running out
3. August 2026
The price of the rescue: Why the yen intervention was never a favour: The bill lands in the US and European bond markets
31. July 2026
Why 1.5% growth masks a hotter, stickier US economy: Phase One and Two still prevail
30. July 2026
Two Speeds Eurozone: Spain's Bet, Germany's Bill. Europe's Demographic Cushion Is Borrowed Time
28. July 2026
Japan has every reason to hike. Takaichi's fiscal ambitions are colliding with the BoJ's credibility
27. July 2026
Ambiguous German IFO Survey Reflects Secular Headwinds and Difficulties in Harnessing Tailwinds
21. July 2026
The AI tax windfall Washington shouldn't bank on: What Yale's AI tax model leaves out
20. July 2026
Andy Burnham inherits two straitjackets and a plan for only one. Who is next in line to become Prime Minister?
17. July 2026
Strong data, weak strategy: Is the US sleepwalking into China's commoditisation playbook?
14. July 2026
What China's Trade Data Really Signals. Chinese 'AI commodisation' gains momentum
10. July 2026
France's far-right moment meets its fiscal ceiling: Marine Le Pen's options are limited without 'EU protection'
9. July 2026
Why AI's second phase won't be gentle. Inside AI's messy second phase [updated]
7. July 2026
US growth is still AI-fuelled. The three-phase AI economy, and why markets only want to focus on one of them
6. July 2026
Reform, without a face to sell it. Germany moves at coalition speed. AfD moves at Erfurt speed
2. July 2026
Is Artificial Intelligence Walking Into the Swamp? The Midterm Wildcard Nobody Is Pricing In
30. June 2026
Germany's slow-motion crisis continues: Berlin's paralysis is AfD's opportunity
29. June 2026
EU Survey: Easing inflation expectations conceal a structural surge in capital demand that a Ukraine-Russia peace would only amplify
26. June 2026
The Reform Dividend continues: Sweden's Structural Edge in a Turbulent World
25. June 2026
The Price of Intelligence: AI's Inflationary Consequences Are No Longer Theoretical
23. June 2026
The AI Economy's Reckoning: Costs, China and the Ballot Box. Too Much Capital, Too Little Runway
22. June 2026
German Reforms, British Succession: Why Europe's Bond Market Must Now Watch Both Flanks
19. June 2026
The Strong Man Without a Moustache - and the One With. Trust Has Left the Building - Only the Untested Remain Popular
18. June 2026
No Exit: The Federal Reserve in the Age of AI Inflation
Video: From Investment Boom to Deflation Risk. The Three Stages of the AI Economy
16. June 2026
'Good Enough'. How China's AI Strategy Could Rewrite the Global Price Story - in the Short and Long Run
15. June 2026
The Art of the Deal, Or the Price of Peace? The Hidden Arithmetic Behind the Iran Deal
12. June 2026
The Bill Is Arriving: Investment Booms, Real Yields and an AI Price War Ahead of Schedule
9. June 2026
China's Trade Machine: Built for a World That Keeps Getting More Hostile. Is the Services Balance the Next Frontier?
The long read: Three Phases of Artificial Intelligence. Why the Road to Deflation Runs Through Inflation First. The Risk from Phase Two
8. June 2026
From Debt Brake to Reform Gap: Germany's Paradox of 2026
The US Jobs Report Was a Sideshow: Here Is the Real Inflation Story. Investment Booms, Defence Spending, Demographics and AI Friction
4. June 2026
The Fed's impossible position: War inflation, an AI boom and a kamikaze president
3. June 2026
Cheap yen, expensive complacency: What euro-yen is really telling investors
2. June 2026
Europe's four-front battle for digital sovereignty: Europe must build, not just forbid, its digital future
1. June 2026
The right industrial kit: How Sweden turned Europe's headwinds into tailwinds
Interactive presentation: AI breaks the ceteris paribus assumption
29. May 2026
Who pays for America's AI boom? Concentrated gains, distributed pain
28. May 2026
Has the Train Left the Station Without Europe? Demographics Are No Excuse (Include interactive video)
27. May 2026
Podcast interview with former White House adviser: The world is not just turbulent - it faces a seismic shift
22. May 2026
There will be no update on Monday, 25 May, a public holiday in Denmark
Weak IFO Survey Shows Berlin Losing Its Grip as AfD Surges Ahead
21. May 2026
The price of capital is rising, but Europe is still far behind
19. May 2026
Ahead of the curve: what Japan got right - and what it means for Western bond markets
18. May 2026
The surplus economy: China's export machine and Europe's moment of choice
Self-inflicted: How Trump's Iran gamble is undermining his own economic programme. Higher bond yields
12. May 2026
There will be no update on Thursday, 14 May, a public holiday in Denmark, and on Friday, 15 May
South Korea's AI dividend dilemma, combined with the Iran Crisis, could lead to several rate hikes
11. May 2026
US labour market: Strong enough to worry, weak enough to stall, but no room for cuts
China holds its ground: Trade, rare earths, and Taiwan at the Beijing summit
8. May 2026
Trump and Vance's AI boomerang - how Anthropic's CEO triggered the backlash
7. May 2026
Not waiting for Berlin: How German industry is building its own recovery
5. May 2026
Video: Global Macroeconomic Update Presentation
1. May 2026
America Is Growing Into a Corner: 1.5% point AI-related Growth, $120 Oil, and a Fed That Cannot Move
30. April 2026
Saved to a standstill: Germany, reform fatigue and Europe's diverging economies
29. April 2026
The Confidence Cliff: Europe's April Survey Confirms the Stagflation Diagnosis
28. April 2026
Britain: An Economy Without Shock Absorbers
27. April 2026
Germany's Frozen Engine: GfK Survey Shows Consumer Despair and Political Paralysis
Europe: The Regulatory Superpower With No Artificial Intelligence to Regulate
24. April 2026
IFO survey: Europe's Demand Wave Is Coming. The Supply Side Is Not Ready
23. April 2026
China Is Doing to AI What It Did to Solar Panels. Wall Street Hasn't Noticed.
21. April 2026
From Lost Decades to Lonely Frontrunner: Japan's Structural Resilience
20. April 2026
A follow-up: Merz Is Running Out of Time - And So Is Germany
17. April 2026
Orban Falls, But Europe's Crisis Is Far From Over: A New Poll shows Berlin needs a serious wake-up call
16. April 2026
China's Pyramid Needs the World. Trump Is Delivering It
14. April 2026
From Globalisation to Fragmentation: The Structural Case for Higher Real Yields
13. April 2026
The Price of Chaos: The Administration That Turns Everything to Dust
10. April 2026
China's Unlikely Windfall: From Deflation to Inflation - and a 'Rehabilitated' Image
9. April 2026
The Velvet Glove Problem: Why Germany Cannot Reform Itself Without an External Shock. US Troop Withdrawal from Europe?
8. April 2026
Damage Control Dressed as Diplomacy: How Trump Declared Victory Over a Crisis He Created
7. April 2026
No Exit Strategy: Trump's Iran War and the Economic Fallout for Europe and America
27. March 2026
There will be no updates over Easter on the following dates: 30 March to 3 April and 6 April.
Europe and Israel, Beware When the 'Peace President' Needs to Come Home to MAGA
26. March 2026
Germany's Head Above Water, And Now the Wave Returns. Bearish Yield Curve Flattening. A Repeat of the 1970s Playbook?
24. March 2026
From Hormuz to the High Street: How the Iran War Is Hitting European Households and Bond Markets
The Art of the Delay: Trump, Iran and the Five-Day Gamble. How the Iran Strategy Is Sowing Long-Term Chaos
20. March 2026
America's Iran Gamble: An Irreversible Cost, a Looming Fiscal Crisis - and an ECB That Will Act Decisively
19. March 2026
The End of the Beginning: Trump's Iran War, MAGA Divisions, and the Crumbling of a Market Tailwind
16. March 2026
There will be no update on 17 and 18 March
China Beats Expectations - But the Cracks Run Deep: AI-related Infrastructure Up
13. March 2026
From Hormuz to Main Street: How Trump's Iran War Is Hitting Consumers and Markets in America and Europe
12. March 2026
Pearl Harbour in Reverse: Tariffs and How the Iran War Is Unravelling Trump's Domestic Agenda
10. March 2026
China's Paradox: Trade Dominance, Economic Crisis, and Strategic Retreat?
9. March 2026
Pest or Cholera: The Iran Conflict's Uncharted Endgame and What It Means for Markets
6. March 2026
Europe Faces More Inflation Pressure as Washington Stirs the Hornet's Nest
5. March 2026
From ISM to Tehran: Why the Fed Has Nowhere Left to Go
3. March 2026
The Federal Reserve and ECB Are Again Trapped Between War and Inflation
Strategic Incompetence: Falling Bond Prices, Self-Inflicted Energy Inflation and the Rug Pulled from Under the Tech Rally
27. February 2026
PM Takaichi Intensifies Geopolitically Driven Industrial Renaissance. Labour Shortages Are Increasing
26. February 2026
EU Commission Survey Underscores Why the ECB's Focus Is Inflation, Despite Artificial Intelligence
24. February 2026
Friction, the Economic Reality of AI Displacement and the Risk of Starting the Guessing Far Too Late
23. February 2026
German IFO survey and, not least, capital goods orders show only the tip of the iceberg, but what about capacity?
20. February 2026
The Myth That the World Exploited the United States: Why America's Trade Deficit Reflects Its Own Choices
19. February 2026
Trump's Tariffs and the Narrow Investment Cycle. Why the Risk Premium on US Assets Should Rise
16. February 2026
Hungary Votes: A Strategic Battleground for Trump, Putin, the EU - and China
13. February 2026
The Hidden Macro, Social and Political Risks Behind the Technology Rally
