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13. November 2018
Germany: ZEW survey shows the dark clouds will not disappear - ECB's Praet turns dovish
China: Monetary statistics show weak credit expansion - 'QE with Chinese characteristics' could be a possible outcome in H2-2019
USA: Small business sentiment survey shows no signs of weakness - but the second leg of 'Trumponomics' will soon create headwinds
China: Fiscal data provides insight into a weakening economy - central government revenues rose at the weakest pace since 2009
A short note on the US dollar - the same forces are still at play
12. November 2018
The case for significant headwinds in 2019 is building: Political instability in the United States and Europe and Xi Jinping's lukewarm support for economic reforms
9. November 2018
USA: Households, a 'lagging indicator', will not see the 'costs of Trumponomics' until Q2 - but they will soon see the first dark clouds on the horizon
USA: Producer price inflation jumps in October as the costs of Trumponomics hit the shores - Higher inflation and slower growth in H1-2019
France: The growth outlook is deteriorating, as the economy faces several headwinds
China: Moderate inflation in October - Xi Jinping adjusts his 'lukewarm' attitude toward the private sector, as the risk of significantly slower growth in H1-2019 increases
8. November 2018
Germany running at full capacity utilisation pulls the trade surplus lower - CDU, CSU and SPD continue to see support decline to a new record low
Japan: A highly ambiguous data flow - Upbeat Reuters Tankan survey and a steep decline in core machinery orders
China: The trade war continues to fuel growth on the mainland; the boomerang will soon come back with a vengeance
7. November 2018
Brazil is headed towards a 'cold turkey' as 'Milton Friedman' enters the stage
China: Foreign exchange reserves decline in October - A steeper decline could be in the pipeline in 2019 as growth slows
Japan: The diffusion index falling to 2009-level is a harbinger of a sharp manufacturing contraction in H1-2019
A short note on the outcome of the US mid-term elections: US-dollar, yields and stock market
6. November 2018
Germany: Non-Euro-zone orders put a drag on industrial orders in September - IFO survey shows declining momentum going into 2019
Unplugged 'Travel Notes: Beijing reinforcing the use of 'big data' puts Europe in a quandary
5. November 2018
USA: ISM service survey continues to herald robust growth going into 2019
Turkey: Inflation hits a new record high - Ankara inclined to boost fiscal stimulus poses a risk to the lira - The latest lira strength leaves no room for policy mistakes
China: Caixin PMI service index takes a beating, as the economy could be exposed to a 'double-whammy' in 2019
26. October 2018
China trip: October 26 - November 2
25. October 2018
USA: Corporate spending remains on a steady upward trend, but there are tentative signs of 'upcoming' weakness in several regional surveys
Germany: IFO survey is a harbinger of slower growth going into the first quarter of 2019 - Next step in the political mess is Hessen
Spain: The unemployment rate declines to the lowest level since 2008, but unemployment could again be on the rise by mid-2019
24. October 2018
USA: One of the best recession indicators, new home sales, plunged in September
France: Manufacturing sentiment declines sharply to the lowest level since November 2016
23. October 2018
Britain could be hit by several headwinds in 2019
Turkey: Consumer confidence declines to the lowest level since November 2008 - 'Investigator' Erdogan will not help Turkey
A general overview of the global macroeconomic and political situation - November
Germany: Producer price inflation hits the highest level since December 2011 - The sponsors behind the stock and bond market rally have disappeared
22. October 2018
Taiwan exports orders report show no decisive signs of slower global growth
China: Home prices continue to increase - Vice-president Liu He reassuring  'private enterprises' on the mainland boosts the stock market 
19. October 2018
US existing home sales: Higher interest rates create headwinds in the housing market, but the affordability index is expected to stabilise because of higher wages
China: Q3 GDP growth in line with market expectations, but the risk of a significant growth slowdown in H1 is high - tighter capital control measures could impact emerging markets, in particular
18. October 2018
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey continues to paint a picture of a strong economy - the employment index increased
Japan: Exports show the first decline since 2016 - The BoJ no longer walks as it talks
17. October 2018
US housing starts-permits report disappoints as higher bond yields put a drag on mortgage applications
(Corrected) China: Social financing jumps in September boosted by a change in the PBoCs calculation
Chinese holdings of US Treasuries decline - but Beijing is not (cannot) 'weaponise' its holdings of US assets - The divide is, however, irreversible
16. October 2018
USA: Manufacturing output is forecast to accelerate going into Q1-2019
Germany: ZEW sentiment index falls sharply in October as investors eat humble pie
Britain: Wage inflation hits the highest level since 2009 - the economy shows classic 'late-cycle' signs as the 'costs of expansion' are on the rise
China: Moderate inflation in September, but 'actual' inflation pressure is on the rise, which poses a risk to the new policy of easing
15. October 2018
USA: Weak retail sales headline number, but the retail control number heralds strong GDP growth in Q3
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey continues to show robust manufacturing growth, but service sentiment declines sharply - 'front-loading' of foreign trade poses a risk to H1-2019 growth
Bavarian state election: 'It is not the economy - Dummkopf' - Hessen election could trigger a CDU revolt against Merkel
12. October 2018
USA: UoM consumer sentiment index stays at an elevated level - The Fed is forced to move monetary policy from 'accommodative' to 'slightly restrictive' even if president Trump diagnoses such a policy as 'crazy'
Euro-zone: 'Moderate' manufacturing output in 2018, but there are clouds on the horizon - Berlin makes significant cuts to the 2018 and 2019 growth forecast
China: Strong trade report shows visible signs of 'frontloading growth' - Beijing will still add more stimulus to the economy
11. October 2018
A short note on China: Frontloading could lead to significant growth moderation in H1-2019 - More anecdotal evidence of possible oversupply in the housing market
The Federal Reserve Chairman is not crazy, but one sometimes wonders whether.....
10. October 2018
USA: Stable PPI inflation in September - but real bond yields are too low considering strong and accelerating growth and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet contraction
Italy: Industrial output declines by less than expected in August - but this does not change the fact that Rome faces an uncertain future with few policy options left
Japan: Machinery orders jump as the economy is running out of idle capacity, but the 'Diffusion Index' tells a different story for H1-2019
9. October 2018
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey shows no signs of slowing demand for workers - The share of companies raising wages hits a record high
Germany: The August trade report still reflects an economy running out of capacity - export data surprisingly weak as 'front-loading' was expected
8. October 2018
Germany: Capacity problems put a lid on manufacturing output - Trump's 'veto-trade-deals' pose an increasing risk to European exporters
China cutting banks' reserve requirement will reinforce downward pressure on the yuan against the US-dollar - The risk of a 'global split' is on the rise!
5. October 2018
USA: A mixed employment report in September will not change the fact that the Fed is on a firm path of monetary tightening - Unemployment rate hits lowest level since 1969 
Japan: Manufacturing indicators show strong demand but weak output - Workers' real cash earnings are again on the decline
Germany: Industrial orders bounce back in August, but inflation at the factory gates gains momentum
4. October 2018
A short note on yesterday's robust ISM service and soaring bond yields in USA and Japan
3. October 2018
USA: Service ISM index hits an all-time high in September indicating growth higher than 4% - the employment index skyrockets - overheating?
USA: The current economic expansion is at a crossroad - Demand for workers increases at the same time as supply is shrinking
Euro-zone: Soft retail sales in August - private consumption faces headwinds in 2019 
Turkey: CPI inflation skyrockets to 25%, as Erdogan undermines the impact of monetary tightening
2. October 2018
Brazil: The risk of a 'double-dip' is on the rise
Euro-zone: Higher energy prices boost inflation at the factory gates - significant up-revision of the July report
NAFTA2 - The world is headed towards 'managed trade' dictated by the strongest military powers
1. October 2018
USA: ISM survey continues to paint a robust outlook for the manufacturing survey - inflation pressure declines in September
Turkey faces a deep recession - and President Erdogan has no reliable friends to help him - not even in Berlin
Euro-zone unemployment rate hits the lowest level since November 2008, as signs of a labour shortage gain momentum
Spain: Inflation expectations at the highest level since 2012 make an inroad into households' real purchasing power
Japan: Quarterly Tankan survey disappoints, but it remains a harbinger of robust growth in H2 and a very tight labour market
China's PMI surveys: September-October growth may still be robust, but the risk of significant Q1 weakness is on the rise
28. September 2018
China: Stimulus measures hit the shores before the negative impact of the trade war
German unemployment rate hitting the lowest level since 1981 could prove a liability to Italy
Japan: Industrial output report is much better than outlined by the headline number, but the economy is on a crossroad
27. September 2018
USA: The best forward-looking indicators herald robust durable goods orders, but the Goldilocks scenario of 'strong growth-low inflation' has changed to a scenario of 'lower growth-higher inflation and higher interest rates'
Germany: Inflation hits the highest level since 2012 - domestic factors will drive inflation higher as the 'labour reserve' is running out of workers
EU survey shows clear signs of accelerating inflation pressure partly by courtesy of ECB President Draghi - Ironically, inflation is now the biggest risk to 2019 growth
A general overview of the global macroeconomic and political situation
26. September 2018
USA: Solid new home sales in August, but significantly higher bond yields will change the environment in H1-2019
Britain: No signs of softer consumer spending after robust summer sales
France and Germany: Dark clouds on the horizon spell trouble for the EU
25. September 2018
USA: Consumer confidence hits the highest level since September 2000 - the share of households seeing 'plentiful-of-jobs' jumped in September
USA: Case-Shiller home price index continues to show steady increases - but the risk of higher mortgage bond yields is on the rise
Germany: External factors boost inflation pressure - but wage pressure is building as well
24. September 2018
Germany: IFO survey shows domestic tailwinds prevail over the 'potential risk' from a trade war
20. September 2018
+++There will be no updates on September 21+++
USA: Existing home sales report still heralds robust price increases in 2018, but headwinds from higher bond yields in 2019
US Philadelphia Fed survey underscores why the Federal Reserve should not hesitate to raise policy rates at a faster pace
Britain: The case for faster monetary tightening is building - Strong retail sales in August
'The world today has learned its lessons, which will prevent the next crisis to erupt.' Really?
19. September 2018
US housing starts jump in August, but wage increases will not be enough to mitigate the negative impact of higher bond yields in 2019
The last note on Trump's import tariffs - 'China is not the Soviet Union in the 1980s!'
Britain - Consumer prices jump in August: Households' inflation expectations are on the rise - Is a major bond market sell-off in the pipeline?
Japan: Strong domestic demand and slowing exports inflate the trade deficit - BoJ sees no reasons to withdraw ultra-loose monetary policy