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Public
16. July 2024
The next Trump administration could push the EU into a dangerous security vacuum
15. July 2024
The political impact of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump before and after the election
China needs a 'controlled' recession, but Beijing has failed to create the institutionalised framework. Beijing has a different priority list
12. July 2024
Does falling US inflation also mean significantly lower bond yields?
11. July 2024
Washington Meeting: Geopolitical tensions are escalating with significant economic consequences
10. July 2024
The path of interest rates in the US - and the impact on the Eurozone bond market
9. July 2024
Misunderstood fiscal discipline in Berlin: Germany's path to instability
8. July 2024
French Election: The operation succeeded - but it caused the pendulum to swing to the left
28. June 2024
Due to vacation, there will be no updates on July 1-5
27. June 2024
Germany stands out in the June EU business and consumer survey: One threat from Beijing and Olaf Scholz panics
China's window of opportunity: A second and last chance to save the relationship with the European Union?
25. June 2024
National Rally is poised for a major electoral victory. ECB will bear part of the credit risk for the election promises. What are the consequences of 'French nukes are for France'?
24. June 2024
Germany needs - and will be forced to accept - lenient fiscal rules to make Germany and the EU survive
21. June 2024
'Recovery' in the US manufacturing sector does not gain traction - but inflationary pressures accelerate. Trump and the risk of recession
20. June 2024
Germany's competitiveness faces significant erosion without action
18. June 2024
The 'centre holds,' but the Eurozone faces unprecedented economic problems from weak productivity and soaring labour costs
17. June 2024
China is in the midst of a balance sheet 'recession': Existing house prices drop at the fastest rate since 2011
14. June 2024
Political chaos in France: Marine Le Pen knows the path to power through the front door at the centre, but what happens when she stands in the corridor of power?
13. June 2024
Washington will be forced to address a spiralling federal debt - otherwise, the bond market will react accordingly
11. June 2024
USA: The NFIB sentiment survey shows no signs of a weakening labour market. Labour shortages will prevail throughout 2024
The game is over for the coalition in Berlin. Germany could soon be forced to call an early election - tomorrow might be too late
10. June 2024
A weaker EU at the worst possible time means a higher risk premium. Will Meloni save the EU? What is the outcome of Macron's Russian Roulette?
7. June 2024
Chinese trade figures still show signs of a weak domestic economy. The cost of 'de-risking' will be high for China and the EU
6. June 2024
ECB decides hawkish monetary easing because it has no other option
4. June 2024
What happens if the gap between the ISM and the real economy closes?
3. June 2024
The ECB's communication problem: Policy rate cut, service inflation, soaring budget deficits and labour shortages
31. May 2024
A Beijing that continues to kick the can down the road and a West that no longer follows Beijing's playbook will not create a self-propelled recovery in China
30. May 2024
Western secular challenges: Implications for bond markets, the yield curve and monetary policy
29. May 2024
The European Central Bank's main challenge is to increase unemployment
Podcast interview with Camilla Tenna Norup Sorensen: The EU's next major challenge - the strained relationship with 'Xi Jinping's China'
27. May 2024
IFO survey: The road to recovery will be a long and arduous process, requiring massive investments in new technology
24. May 2024
EU's secular problem - labour shortage - is highly evident in French business surveys
23. May 2024
Has the ECB promised too much? Yes, according to German wage statistics and due to a hostile geopolitical environment
21. May 2024
Why are commodity prices rising?
17. May 2024
Due to Whit Monday, there will be no update on May 20
Beijing reacts when the CPC is threatened. The real estate sector crisis requires action, but new measures are mostly kicking the can down the road
16. May 2024
Washington's focus on inflation and the federal budget deficit will soon become the EU's biggest problem as generosity fades
14. May 2024
USA: Demographics, 'significant de-risking', and military build-up will amplify inflationary pressures in the coming quarters and years
British labour market report underscores European central banks' lack of room for manoeuvre
13. May 2024
'Xi Jinping's China' is becoming more visible on the horizon in the West. This gives rise to concern in the EU
8. May 2024
Due to Ascension Day, there will be no update on May 9 and May 10
7. May 2024
Germany's many obstacles: Fifth-column activities, Scholz and Christian Lindner stand in the way of voters who support change
6. May 2024
A short note on the US employment report and the ISM surveys: A paradigm shift
The EU faces crucial days and months. The first test is the Xi Jinping visit. The next test: Ukraine's vulnerable eastern front?
3. May 2024
The US labour market will continue to hit its ceiling without massive increases in productivity
2. May 2024
Japan is a 'currency manipulator' - but no one has an interest in telling Tokyo [corrected]
1. May 2024
Western central banks face a reality check. Wage inflation will not go away without higher unemployment - but this requires significant tightening
30. April 2024
The EU Parliamentary election could prove to be fateful. It will reveal whether a strong centre has the support of the voters
29. April 2024
The Eurozone economy has stalled
The likelihood of 'significant EU de-risking' away from China is increasing
26. April 2024
The ECB would have already cut policy rates multiple times if these were 'normal times'. It is not!
The Bank of Japan continues to speak with a forked tongue. This cannot go unpunished for the yen as the US Federal Reserve may not be able to lower interest rates
24. April 2024
Podcast interview with Jacob Kaarsbo: ENGLISH transcript - Ukraine, Iran, China, Russia, Donald Trump and what awaits the EU countries in the coming time
Germany: The IFO survey continues to show improvement - but the risk of 'profound de-risking' away from China is on the rise
22. April 2024
A dynamic geopolitical situation could sooner rather than later force the EU to address more aggressively its dependency on China
18. April 2024
US Philadelphia Fed survey: A new inflation leg is underway in the manufacturing sector
The aftermath of Scholz's kowtow: Beijing has a problem if the EU proves to have a backbone - and so will many European companies in China
16. April 2024
China: 'Impressive' growth number in Q1 if you are wearing blinkers
15. April 2024
The missile attack wiped the slate clean for Netanyahu and opened a window of opportunity to target Iran's nuclear weapons program
12. April 2024
The underlying details in China's trade statistics continue to show domestic weakness. Scholz headed for another kowtow in Beijing
Podcast interview with USA expert Niels Bjerre-Poulsen: What happens if Trump becomes the next president of the United States?
11. April 2024
Deflationary tendencies bring up the 'bazooka talk' again, but Beijing has a completely different agenda
10. April 2024
USA: The Federal Reserve's job is far from done. Reducing service price inflation is difficult without a significant increase in unemployment
9. April 2024
The Bank of Japan is playing with fire: Households are seeing stronger wage increases and higher inflation
5. April 2024
Another strong US labour market report will not give 'inevitable' policy rate cuts a particularly warm reception in the long end of the bond market
If Ukraine falls, public sector expenditure in EU member states will rise rapidly in a world with many constraints
4. April 2024
The US Federal Reserve now has a complete picture - but pointing in all directions
3. April 2024
The ECB only has the option for symbolic policy rate cuts. Real bond yields will rise, and productivity needs to increase [includes two extra charts]
2. April 2024
Japan's service sentiment increases to the highest since 1991. Higher JGB yields will trigger rising bond yields in the USA and Eurozone
Are the many 'Acts' in the USA finally creating a new growth leg in the manufacturing sector?
27. March 2024
Due to Easter, there will be no update from March 28 to April 1 - both days included
China's problem is that the EU intends to reduce dependence on a no longer trusted Beijing
26. March 2024
Sweden is in a strong position to enjoy the benefit of a changed geopolitical situation with friend-shoring and higher defence spending
25. March 2024
European defence stocks speak their own language, but politicians are chasing the train
22. March 2024
The German IFO survey is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. German politics has become pure chaos with no solution to huge problems
21. March 2024
The European Central Bank's room for monetary easing is limited, even though a rate cut in June is highly likely
The Reuters Tankan survey signals an accelerating Japanese economy. Buy the yen
20. March 2024
Podcast interview: ENGLISH transcript - President of the EU Chamber in China - Reciprocity in the China-EU relationship without dialogue increases the risk of a serious clash
19. March 2024
China's economic problems are now so significant that the 'Emperor' must visit the EU
18. March 2024
The Bank of Japan does not need to say many wrong words to create an avalanche. The global consequences could be significant
15. March 2024
Chinese house price index declines to 2018 low. TikTok is part of an intensifying economic conflict with the West
14. March 2024
A short note on demographics, monetary policy, immigration and productivity
12. March 2024
There will be no updates on March 13
US CPI inflation progress will be slow without a significant increase in unemployment. NFIB indicates this is in the pipeline - maybe
There is a good reason to fasten the seatbelt if Trump carries out just half his threats
8. March 2024
German economy moves deeper into the abyss due to a lack of constructive political action. Industrial orders hit the lowest since 2010
Podcast interview: ENGLISH transcript - What happens in Europe if the USA leaves NATO? Interview with Sten Rynning, director of the Danish Institute for Advanced Study
7. March 2024
China's trade report is yet another reminder of an impending trade war
6. March 2024
Weaker US growth in 2024 will pave the way for 'the least bad president,' whom no one truly desires
5. March 2024
A short note on the Two Sessions Meeting in Beijing: There is little focus on the economy but much on a massive military buildup. Putin created a big mess for Beijing
4. March 2024
French budget deficit highlights the challenges facing the Eurozone. The four largest Eurozone members illustrate the problem for the ECB
1. March 2024
The ECB is set to disappoint the bond market beyond a 'pseudo-policy-rate cut' - unless unemployment increases significantly
China's economy is apparently so weak that a concerned Beijing will do everything possible to avoid a corporate exodus from China
29. February 2024
German statistics paint a dire picture. The positive aspect is that most voters support dramatic changes - including massive rearmament
28. February 2024
The EU Commission survey still highlights why the ECB does not have much room to manoeuvre
27. February 2024
The Eurozone shows marginal signs of improvement. EU leaders face unpopular decisions - a discussion started by the Danish Prime Minister
There is much talk about the EU's window of opportunity - but one should focus on Russia's 'best choice'. Poland talks about nuclear option
23. February 2024
IFO survey indicates a deeper German recession - and with it comes an inevitable trade war with China
Chinese house prices continue to fall. How does one filter 'misinformation'?
22. February 2024
The economic situation in Germany is now so bad that it's time to say goodbye to nostalgia. 'Goodbye SchuldenBremse'