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Public
27. September 2021
Updated Bundestag election: The Green Party turning left and FDP's Christian Lindner saying in 2017 'it is better not to govern than to govern badly' spell trouble for upcoming coalition negotiations
24. September 2021
The possible outcome of the Bundestag election: Only two viable coalitions out of five possible
Germany's IFO survey: The 'collapse' of the global supply chain hits manufacturing and retailer sentiment
Britain Gfk Consumer survey: Soaring energy prices, Brexit and tax hike plan overshadow tailwinds from a tight labour market
23. September 2021
Western central banks will be forced to raise the white flag - but this will come too late to prevent a hard landing because the bottlenecks remain. Norway raises policy rates
France: In relative comparison, the economy is in a better position than most European countries. Moreover, the main energy source is nuclear power
22. September 2021
USA: The classic indicators show signs of a 'late-cycle economy' caused by capacity constraints
21. September 2021
Beijing's response to the long-overdue Evergrande crisis will reflect 'common prosperity' and President Xi Jinping's willingness to take risks - but Beijing aims for a 'controlled unwinding'
20. September 2021
Germany: Factory gates inflation skyrockets to a new record high. More in the pipeline as the impact of Merkel's 'energy policy' hits the shore
The email-server problem has been solved
17. September 2021
USA: UoM survey shows surprisingly downbeat consumer sentiment as households' inflation expectations continue higher
The risk of a hard landing in the global economy is on the rise due to central bankers who are experts in 'fighting fires they set alight themselves'
16. September 2021
USA: Retail sales jump sharply in August despite falling consumer confidence. Philadelphia Fed survey shows the first profound late-cycle signs 'after' Covid
A short note on why the US-UK-Australia security pact is one more step towards decoupling between China and the rest of the world. 'Containment'
Japan: The economy is not much better than the rest of the world makes it. Supply chain problems hit exports and manufacturing sentiment
Recommendation: Take short-term profit in 'short 30-year German Bund future' strategy
15. September 2021
USA: Manufacturing output data show only a slow increase in the supply side, while the Empire State survey shows strong demand
British inflation data shows signs of 'delayed price pressure'. Soaring electricity and heating prices will make the inflation picture even worse in Q4
China: Weak economic data will soon test Beijing's skills more profoundly. Evergrande 'default' will not go away. New virus outbreak in Fujian
14. September 2021
USA: Core consumer price inflation slows in August, but price pressure will stay high in the coming months
Britain: The number of unfilled job vacancies exceeding one million leaves few other options than launching monetary tightening sooner rather than later
No signs of falling inflation pressure. Electricity and gas prices are skyrocketing. ECB and Federal Reserve could be forced to respond faster at the same time as China's debt crisis gets worse
13. September 2021
Turkey: The economy faces headwinds as stimulus measures are running out of steam
SPD's Olaf Scholz is not the solution. Merkel departure will release conflicting political forces in Germany and the rest of Europe. WPI inflation at the highest level since 1974
10. September 2021
USA: Producer price inflation hits a new record high even though wage inflation has just started
China: Beijing's policy U-turn is not yet visible in monetary statistics. ‌The latest on President Xi's 'reform' process
Spain: The economic recovery remains strong despite weaker-than-expected industrial output data in July. Madrid turns left as the rest of Europe
9. September 2021
China: Factory gates inflation gains momentum, but a 'radical' political shift poses a much larger risk
The mismatch between the supply and the demand sides worsens in the labour market. Sell the US stock market
8. September 2021
The yield curve and 'tapering'
7. September 2021
Germany: ZEW survey shows the economy hitting a huge roadblock as the ECB scores own goal
China: August trade report makes a positive surprise, but the economy faces headwinds. Internal power struggle in Beijing?
6. September 2021
Germany: 'Big items' boost industrial orders in July. Bottlenecks create roadblocks for economic activity
China: The Second Cultural Revolution?
USA and Europe: The worst central banks since Arthur Burns in the 1970s create stagflation
1. September 2021
Vacation: There will be no updates from August 23 to September 3, 2021
24. August 2021
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Soerensen: China enters the graveyard of empires, Afghanistan. What are the ramifications?
20. August 2021
Germany: Factory inflation, sponsored by irresponsible Western central banks and fiscal policymakers, is skyrocketing at the fastest annual rate since the 1970s
19. August 2021
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows more signs of stagflation. The Delta variant creating more supply chain havoc in China will maintain high inflation pressure in the US
Japan: Business sentiment jumps across the board despite soaring Covid cases and global supply chain challenges
A short note on the consequences of Beijing becoming 'socialist', this time, with 'real socialist characteristics'
USA: Tapering combined with a recovery in inflation and real growth rapidly reduces excess liquidity to the disadvantage of asset prices
18. August 2021
The global bottlenecks will not go away because the Delta variant will aggravate the mismatch between the supply and demand sides. The US Federal Reserve will soon have to make a difference
17. August 2021
USA: The July retail sales report disappoints, but it is difficult to say whether this is caused by higher inflation, Covid or a shortage of supply
Britain: The labour market recovers strongly. The share of companies 'planning to hire' and 'unfilled vacancies' jump to the highest level on record
16. August 2021
China: The economy is losing momentum. Beijing pursues a strategy of 'targeted tightening and universal easing'
USA: Consumer sentiment takes a beating due to soaring Covid cases and self-inflicted headwinds in the form of rising inflation
13. August 2021
Germany: The next Bundestag could turn out to be the most unruly parliament since the Weimar Republic
12. August 2021
USA: 'Transitory' producer price inflation continues gaining momentum for longer, as the Federal Reserve considers how to make a U-turn without losing face
Euro-zone: Man-made bottlenecks in the global supply chain puts a lid on manufacturing output
11. August 2021
US inflation report provides relief, but too much demand hunting too few goods will keep inflation at an elevated level beyond 'transitory'
A divorce between monetary and fiscal policymakers seems inevitable. Soon, central banks are forced to call a spade a spade
Sell the German 30-year government bond future
10. August 2021
USA: Small business survey shows tentative signs of stagflation. The Federal Reserve still faces a tiny window of opportunity, but it is closing rapidly
Germany: ZEW economic sentiment index falls sharply in August, as the side-effects of aggressive monetary and fiscal easing hit the shores
Australia: Business sentiment plunges, as Australia gives lessons to Europe and US on what to expect if we do not get it right over the coming winter
USA: JOLTS report underscores dissent at the Federal Reserve. The missing link between aggressive stimulus measures and 'climate change.'
9. August 2021
Podcast interview with Casper Wichmann, China expert: Who is next in Beijing's crackdown on the corporate sector?
China: Benign inflation 'sponsored' by falling pork prices opens a window of opportunity for more monetary easing - but this is a delicate balancing act due to soaring factory gates inflation
6. August 2021
USA: A strong labour market report will be followed by an even stronger report in August and September adding upward pressure on wages
Germany: The economy shows classic late-cycle symptoms although the recovery has just started. Do not expect help from container shipping lines in 2021
5. August 2021
France: There are absolutely no signs of improvement in public sector finances despite a recovering economy
Germany: Industrial orders inflated by 'big items'. The problem is not the demand side but bottlenecks in the global supply chain
Brazil raises policy rates by 100 basis points. More in the pipeline as the independent central bank, BCB, provides lessons to 'old' central banks in the developed world
4. August 2021
USA: Service sentiment jumps to a new all-time high, while inflation pressure increases to the highest since 2005
Euro-zone: Retail sales report shows strong consumer spending in June, but households will soon see headwinds in Q3 from broad-based inflation pressure
3. August 2021
Euro-zone: Producer price inflation hits the highest level since the early 1990s. No signs of 'transitory' as the supply side has yet to respond to stronger 'transitory demand'
Turkey is 'cornered' with no emergency exits
2. August 2021
USA: The manufacturing ISM index fell in July, as companies are 'short of everything'. The 'solution' is apparently more stimulus measures
Sweden: PMI survey shows inflation pressure increasing to a new all-time high as central banks underestimate the time lag of monetary decisions. Container rates 'out of China' jump by 11% in July
China: Beijing facing several out-of-control headwinds makes a corporate-hostile policy misplaced - or the 'wrong timing'
30. July 2021
US personal income and consumption report shows elevated inflation pressure but not enough to worry the Federal Reserve, at least not yet
Euro-zone Q2 growth propelled higher by countries in the periphery despite a slow rebound in tourism
France: The economy shows only a muted rebound in Q2 after flat growth in Q1. Real purchasing power erosion poses a bigger short-term threat than the delta-variants
29. July 2021
USA: Q2 GDP report disappoints, not least due to a record-high GDP deflator. More 'transitory' inflation is in the pipeline. Is stagflation around the corner?
EU Commission survey: Soaring household inflation expectations hit the highest level since 2012, as ECB policy turns 'demand destructive'
France: Factory-gate inflation continues gaining momentum sponsored by a European Central Bank increasingly out of touch with the reality on the ground
28. July 2021
France: The 'net effect' of aggressive global stimulus measures are slowly creating headwinds to households - Insee
Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will, once again, be forced to admit that he was wrong. Richmond Fed's 'prices paid' index skyrockets in July
27. July 2021
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey shows significant inflation pressure but not necessarily 'demand destructive' - at least not yet
USA: The corporate spending recovery is still intact, but it has, so far, been a disappointment considering excessively loose monetary policy
South Korea: Strong Q2 growth makes leeway for the Bank of Korea to raise policy rates in August
China's corporate sector sees plenty of headwinds. Now, the education sector feels the heat from Beijing. Even Stephen Roach warns about the direction of Beijing
26. July 2021
USA: New home sales report shows more signs that the Federal Reserve is slowly turning into the main sponsor of headwinds to the economy
Germany: IFO survey underscores the ECB's policy mistake by focusing on the demand side. Bottlenecks in the supply chain are the main problem, according to IFO
23. July 2021
Soon, the margin squeeze in the manufacturing sector could also hit the service sector sponsored by irresponsible central banks out of touch with economic reality
22. July 2021
USA: Existing home prices continued to increase rapidly in June, but house price inflation has peaked
France: Business sentiment continues to improve, as demand is no longer a problem. 'Supply difficulties' skyrocket to the highest since 2000
Perversely, at the same time ECB's Lagarde considers new stimulus measures, the Dutch unemployment rate approaches an all-time low and home prices an all-time high
21. July 2021
Britain is walking a delicate balancing act as higher inflation reduces the room for maneuvring
The 'Australian case' is a warning to Europe and the United States to prepare for 'winter is coming'
20. July 2021
Taiwan and South Korea continue to benefit from a 'cutting corners policy' in the United States and Europe 
Germany: Producer price inflation hits the highest level since January 1982. Core inflation also hits a new record high
Covid-update: Is 'winter coming' before 'summer has even started?'
19. July 2021
USA: Aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures turn counterproductive. Households' inflation expectations jump, according to UoM consumer sentiment survey
16. July 2021
USA: Retail sales jump in June, as households see plenty of tailwinds, but inflation poses a problem unless wages are on the rise
The fundamental support for the US dollar is eroding rapidly
15. July 2021
USA: The regional Philadelphia Fed survey continues to show solid growth and inflation at an elevated level
China's economy shows robust growth in Q2, but officials warn about dark clouds on the horizon
14. July 2021
USA: The Federal Reserve ignoring soaring inflation as 'transitory' could be in for a significant surprise because the supply side stays put