Forgot login
Please fill in your e-mail adress below. We will send you a link with details on recovering your account.

 

Click image to close window.
Public
25. May 2022
There will be no updates on May 26 and 27
Geopolitics goes from 'bad' to 'terrible'. President Biden's 'Taiwan speech' and the 'Xinjiang files' could bring forward 'unavoidable' tensions between the West and China
Sweden: Consumer confidence drops to the lowest level since 2008, but the corporate sector underestimates what is coming. Geopolitics goes from 'bad' to 'terrible'
Germany: A 'delayed' refilling of inventories was the only growth contributor in the first quarter, but the demand-side situation has changed markedly since Q3 in 2021
24. May 2022
USA: New home sales statistics underscore that 'recession' is coming. A sharp decline in existing home prices is in the pipeline, according to a sharp increase in the inventory of unsold homes
France: Business sentiment is holding up supported by a rebound in service sentiment. Manufacturing inflation expectations jump to a new record high
Podcast interview with Claus Mathiesen, Royal Danish Defence College, and former defence attaché in Ukraine: Where is Russia headed? [language: Danish]
23. May 2022
Germany: The IFO survey shows an unchanged gloomy outlook, but the 'feared outcome 'has not yet hit the shore
20. May 2022
Germany: Inflation is out of control and voters are not pleased. Workers not only worry about inflation, but they also worry about job security in a tight labour market
Britain: Consumer confidence hits the lowest level since the First Oil Crisis - and the food crisis has only just started. China eases monetary policy
19. May 2022
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey further increases the risk of recession in the second half of 2022
Euro-zone: It feels as if European policymakers do not really understand what is coming
Japan's weak-yen policy backfires, as expensive imports of energy soar. The Bank of Japan making a U-turn poses another risk to the global financial market
18. May 2022
Britain: Inflation jumps to the highest since January 1982, as the Bank of England uses more time on finding excuses rather than confronting the problem, inflation
China: The impact of Beijing's policy mistakes hits the shores more broadly
17. May 2022
USA: Inflation boosts retail sales, but retail sales in volume terms contract significantly. The report reflects inflation and real purchasing power erosion
Euro-zone: The big slow-down will come abruptly and as a huge surprise to policymakers
16. May 2022
USA: Consumer sentiment plunges, but inflation expectations stabilise at an elevated level
Germany: There are no signs of slowing inflation pressure. Food price inflation gains the upper hand. The next factors are social and political tensions
China: The Great Leap Backward hits the economy in April. The risk of recession is high unless Beijing makes a 'highly unlikely' policy U-turn
12. May 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation seems to have peaked. The Federal Reserve seems to be in a better position to rein in inflation expectations than the ECB
The ECB underestimates what the bank has started: The EMU has turned 'south European' - a steep euro decline can no longer be ruled out
Britain: The economy loses momentum, but a far too accommodative monetary policy still supports home prices. More aggressive tightening is still in the pipeline despite slower growth
11. May 2022
There are no updates on Friday, May 13, due to a public holiday in Denmark
US CPI report: Energy inflation slows, but inflation is broadening to the entire economy. Inflation expectations will not go away without significant monetary tightening
Australia: Consumer sentiment plunges. The Australian bond market poses a warning to the Euro-zone
China: Inflation surprises to the upside - but Beijing makes no surprises. Instead, Xi Jinping doubles down on the Covid strategy
10. May 2022
USA: NFIB small business survey shows evidence of 'demand destruction' - the demand side is down and prices are on the rise
Podcast interview with Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China: China is losing its credibility as the best sourcing location in the world
Insightview recommends taking short-term profit on the 'short US stock market' strategy
9. May 2022
China's trade report underscores the 'friendship' of Putin and Xi Jinping - but also more trouble for the mainland economy. FX reserves drop at the fastest rate since 2016
A short note on two cornered autocratic leaders 'forced' to tighten their grip on power more aggressively
6. May 2022
USA: The demand for workers is strong, but the supply is not increasing accordingly
Japan: 'Low' inflation combined with a reversal of monetary policy could make the yen an inflation hedge
5. May 2022
A short note on the Federal Reserve raising policy rates: Mr Powell, who also predicted 'transitory inflation', now forecasts a 'soft landing'. Is this a relief?
Germany: Industrial orders plunge in March as predicted by the IFO survey. More weakness in the pipeline as the ECB is no longer part of the solution
4. May 2022
USA: The ISM service survey shows slowing growth and inflation pressure at an all-time high - not a good cocktail for the stock market
Euro-zone: Retail sales dropped in March but are headed for an even steeper decline in the second quarter - and there will be no help from a 'cornered' ECB
Sweden: PMI service shows a strong rebound in the employment index to the highest level since 2018. The Riksbank has plenty of reasons to continue monetary tightening
USA: JOLTS survey shows how much the Federal Reserve is behind the curve. What are the consequences?
3. May 2022
Germany: A very tight labour market with a recession on the horizon shows how complicated the situation is for the ECB significantly behind the curve
Delayed update: US manufacturing ISM survey shows possible signs of 'demand destruction' caused by soaring inflation. Anyhow, the monetary tightening process remains on track
2. May 2022
Euro-zone: The corporate sector's inflation expectations jump to a new all-time high. 'In Europe, you haven’t even begun to see the effects of China lockdown. The ships coming into Europe today left Shanghai before the lockdown'
China: The official PMI survey shows a steep and broad-based decline in economic sentiment. This is a man-made downturn linked to the 'core leader'
29. April 2022
There will be no updates after 1 PM on Monday, May 2
USA: PCE inflation headline inflation hits the highest level since 1982 - core inflation declines
Germany: Import price inflation hits the highest level since 1974. Suddenly, ECB President Lagarde admits that 'her economic team made a mistake'
28. April 2022
USA: The economy contracted in Q1, but real domestic demand was strong. Inflation continues to go higher
Germany: Consumer price inflation hits the highest level since 1974. Unfortunately, there is more price pressure in the pipeline from Russia, China and food prices
Sweden: The Riksbank finally raises policy rates as inflation expectations hit a new all-time high, according to the NIER survey. Soon, the ECB will follow - and a reluctant Bank of Japan
27. April 2022
Germany: GfK consumer sentiment plunges to an all-time low as the economy faces the biggest crisis since the Second World War
26. April 2022
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey continues to see falling consumer expectations and elevated inflation but to a smaller extent than in Europe
A short note on China's handling of the Omicron variant: Is this more a political power game than about Omicron? Still, the consequence is 'the mother of all supply chain disruption'
25. April 2022
Britain: CBI survey shows a steep decline in business optimism
Germany: A minor rebound in the IFO business sentiment index does not change a dire growth outlook for the second half of 2022
The risk of a deep global recession means that Insightview recommends unwinding the 'long the Australian dollar against the euro and the US dollar' strategy
22. April 2022
Britain: Consumer confidence plunges as households face a tsunami of problems - and they are not 'transitory'
21. April 2022
USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey is now a 'clear indicator' of recession in H2
Podcast interview with Michael Chang, Yara Marine Technologies, in Shanghai: The consequences of what looks like a failed Covid strategy in China
France: Business sentiment stays at an elevated level in April. The 'risk of Marine Le Pen' declines after yesterday's TV debate
Dutch consumer confidence index plunges to a new all-time low significantly lower than in 2020. The impact of all skeletons falling out of the closet simultaneously is underestimated by the financial market
20. April 2022
USA: Existing home sales drop as higher mortgage rates and real wage erosion create headwinds
Germany: Factory gate prices skyrocketed in March. A failed Covid-strategy in China will add even more upward pressure on prices in the coming months
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Sorensen: The global consequences of President Putin's historical policy mistake of invading Ukraine - and a few words on the Danish EU defence opt-out referendum [Language: Danish]
19. April 2022
A short note on why the ECB has many good reasons to be scared when it comes to making a monetary U-turn - but it has no other option
China: A strong Q1 GDP report does not fit into the overall picture. The economy faces heavy headwinds - and Xi Jinping is under pressure
13. April 2022
It is a public holiday in Denmark from April 14 to April 18. Therefore, there will be no updates
USA: Factory price inflation just keeps going higher. Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's catastrophic handling of Omicron will create the next leg of inflation
China: The global supply chain bottlenecks move from eastern ports to between provinces and cities due to the 'zero-tolerance strategy'
Britain: Inflation jumps to the highest since 1991. The Bank of England and other central banks are forced to tighten significantly. New Zealand hikes policy rates by 50 basis points
12. April 2022
USA: Consumer price inflation hits the highest level since 1981, but core inflation is lower than market expectations
USA: NFIB small business sentiment index declines close to the lowest level since April 2020. The six-month index plunges to a new all-time low. Inflation pressure increases
A short note on 'the mother of all repricing' in the European and US bond markets: The ECB's 'fantasy' could, potentially, topple the EU house of cards, unless the central bank pulls itself together
10. April 2022
There will be no updates on April 11
8. April 2022
Japan: The Bank of Japan plays with fire because voters are turning the other cheek - but for how long?
An important note about Russia's invasion of Ukraine: What if Marine Le Pen is elected the next president? Xi Jinping faces a tsunami of selfmade problems. Tensions in Pakistan. Delhi risks scoring an own goal
7. April 2022
Britain: The housing market remains the 'safest' inflation hedge - but for how long?
6. April 2022
Euro-zone: Factory gates inflation moves deeper into the 'demand destruction zone'
Germany: The February industrial orders statistics could prove to be a 'good month' in comparison to what comes next, according to the latest IFO survey
China: PMI service sentiment plunges to the lowest level since February 2020, as Xi Jinping's policy mistakes hit the shore. Beijing needs a new campaign to bolster Xi. Who will be the scapegoats for Xi's mistakes?
5. April 2022
USA: ISM service survey continues to show robust growth, but inflation pressure is on the rise
Sweden: PMI service survey shows a relatively benign 'Ukraine impact' on sentiment - so far - but inflation pressure is broadening
South Korea feels the heat: Energy prices are skyrocketing. Xi Jinping's China opts for Putin and is looking for a scapegoat to divert the attention from a failed Covid strategy
4. April 2022
Delayed update: US manufacturing ISM survey and employment report underscore the risk of stagflation. Several tsunamis will hit the shore in the coming months
Turkey: Inflation soars - but the war in Ukraine has turned President Erdogan into a winner
31. March 2022
Re-sell the US stock market
Insightview recommends taking short-term profit on the 'short German 30-year bond future' strategy
China: The official PMI composite index drops to the lowest level since February 2020
30. March 2022
Germany: Inflation hits the highest level since 1973, as the ECB has totally lost touch with the Euro-zone economy
Euro-zone: Inflation expectations skyrocket into the 'out of control' zone
Sweden: Business sentiment increases as consumer confidence collapses. Households' inflation expectations skyrocket in March
29. March 2022
Germany: Consumer sentiment collapses to the lowest level since June 2020, as the culmination of several policy mistakes hit the shore at the same time
France: Consumer confidence plunges. The ECB cannot ignore a record-high share of households seeing soaring inflation - the highest since 1971
25. March 2022
Germany: A steep decline in the IFO expectations index is a harbinger of recession in Q2 and Q3. Beijing's Covid strategy will create the next inflation leg
Britain: Consumer confidence plunges as inflation pressure increases. Anecdotal evidence from China does not give rise to inflation optimism. The impact of lockdowns is broadening
24. March 2022
The next leg in the 'mother of all repricing' in the European and US bond markets
France: The big reckoning of aggressive stimulus measures in 2020 and 2021 and now Russia's invasion of Ukraine has started
23. March 2022
Podcast interview with Carsten Rasmussen, Danish Brigadier General, defence attaché, at the Danish embassy in Moscow: President Putin's invasion of Ukraine [language: Danish]
Britain: Inflation jumps to the highest level since 1992 as 'the mother of all repricing' has started in the bond market
22. March 2022
Britain: Factory gates inflation pressure jumps to the highest since the early 1970s - Euro-zone yield curve steepens