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14. February 2020
There will be no updates on Monday - February 17
US retail sales report: A robust economy with a falling growth rate because of 'late-cycle bottle-necks'
China: Insightview reduces Q1 growth forecast again as anecdotal evidence shows slow upstart of production - podcast on Tuesday
Germany: The economy was flat in Q4 as corporate spending and consumption put a drag on growth. Headwinds in 2020 require a political response from a wing-shot Berlin
13. February 2020
France: Unemployment drops to the lowest level since 2008. Coronavirus outbreak poses a significant risk to millions of Chinese tourists visiting the country every year
USA: The fiscal deficit hitting a new record high, by courtesy of President Trump, makes the economy vulnerable
Sell a basket of the US and Japanese stock markets based on valuation and investors underestimating the global economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak
12. February 2020
Brazil's weak recovery is in jeopardy as the country's largest trading partner, China, has stalled
Euro-zone: Industrial output plunges in December - China's coronavirus outbreak could hit Euro-zone growth harder than currently assessed by the financial market
Germany: CDU's leadership faces 'mission impossible'. Berlin's reversal of the 'Thuringia decision' makes leeway for a far-left Minister-President
11. February 2020
USA: The NFIB small business sentiment survey continues to show a buoyant domestic economy - the labour market is tight and compensation is on the rise
10. February 2020
The Euro-zone faces more headwinds: Italy's industrial output plunges, and CDU party boss steps down making leeway to more turmoil at the political centre of Europe
China: The virus outbreak 'appears' close to a peak, but the macroeconomic consequences could prove to be huge. When is Beijing forced to declare the coronavirus outbreak 'secondary' and 'growth' primary?
7. February 2020
USA: A strong labour market report in January despite weak demand for workers in the ISM employment indexes. The rate of wage increases remains moderate
China: Steady foreign exchange reserves in January do not disguise a trend of a weakening FX position. The White House shows no signs of trade reconciliation
Germany: Manufacturing output plunges in December. 'China crisis' will create short-term problems, but the real issue is Berlin in disarray
6. February 2020
Germany: CDU and FDP have just done what many feared would happen sooner or later
The latest chart update of the coronavirus outbreak: New cases in China slows substantially but accelerates outside China. Why are there no cases in Africa?
Germany: Industrial orders plunge at the fastest annual rate since October 2009 ahead of the coronavirus outbreak
5. February 2020
USA: ISM service survey shows evidence of a 'moderate' rebound in growth in the first half of 2020 - assuming the 'coronavirus stays at bay'
USA: ADP Employment Report shows a steep jump in hiring in January
Euro-zone: Retail sales contracted in December. Households need a new driving factor in 2020 - and the coronavirus to stay away
China: Caixin PMI service index, the falling information value of Chinese statistics and the risk of a shortage of everyday basic commodities
4. February 2020
A short update on the latest coronavirus statistics - 'a little light at the end of the tunnel?'
Recorded web session: Web session meeting with onsite sources from Shanghai and Sichuan about what comes next - only available this week
3. February 2020
INVITATION - Web session meeting with onsite sources from Shanghai and Sichuan about what comes next. The economic, political and production impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Email the editor as soon as possible to register - February 4, 09:30 CET
USA: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back in line with the regional surveys. Households see new tailwinds 'sponsored' by problems abroad
Turkey: Inflation is on the rise as President Erdogan launches fiscal stimulus and monetary easing at the expense of price stability and the lira
Sweden: Manufacturing PMI index bounces back sharply, but the coronavirus outbreak makes this 'history' - for the time being
China: Weak Caixin PMI survey before the coronavirus outbreak - China has only a few 'pull factors' compared to 2003
31. January 2020
Weak Euro-zone growth in the last quarter of 2019. Italy's economy contracts, and Spain is the main growth contributor
China: National PMI survey provides little information about the future. 'March 1' is crucial for the global supply chain
France: The economy contracts in the last quarter of 2019 due to a significant drag from inventories. Real domestic demand remains robust
30. January 2020
USA: A sharp decline in imports was the main growth contributor in the last quarter of 2019. Also, corporate spending contracted
The coronavirus, the global supply chain and the world's response to China's nightmare
Euro-zone: The EU Commission's Business and Consumer Survey shows 'moderate optimism' shortly before the extent of the coronavirus outbreak was known
South Korea: Bank of Korea business survey shows a strong rebound in sentiment after plenty of fiscal and monetary stimulus. The country faces secular headwinds from adverse demographics
29. January 2020
France: Consumer confidence bounces back in January as President Macron's reform process has already made visible results
Italy: Business and consumer surveys herald flat or negative growth in 2020. Time is on the side of Matteo Salvini
Podcast interview (must-listen) with Steffen Schiottz-Christensen, IFU, in Chengdu, about the coronavirus impact, the consequences for the global supply chain and Jyllandsposten's cartoon - Anecdotal evidence from Sichuan
28. January 2020
USA: Consumer confidence jumps in January. Also, the Richmond Fed index skyrockets
Podcast interview with Anders Ellemann Kristensen in Beijing, General Manager, Albatros Travel China, about the coronavirus impact - Anecdotal evidence from Beijing
USA: Durable goods orders continue to show a weak underlying trend in corporate spending despite tax cuts
Spain: The quarterly unemployment rate hits the lowest level since 2008, but the best forward-looking indicators herald a significantly weak labour market in 2020
27. January 2020
USA: New home sales report disappoints in December despite low mortgage rates - but the housing market is expected to be strong in the first half of 2020
A short note on the Coronavirus outbreak: Beijing's efficient response to the outbreak poses, ironically, a significant risk to short-term growth. The next surprise might emerge outside China
Germany: IFO survey disappoints as service sentiment declines. Trade rhetoric from the White House warns about retaliation if carbon import tax is imposed on foreign products
23. January 2020
Turkey: Consumer confidence stays close to a record low despite aggressive monetary and fiscal easing. The lira is at risk
USA: Existing home sales report shows a buoyant housing market boosting households' wealth effect significantly by courtesy of the Federal Reserve
Japan: The December trade report shows no signs of an upcoming rebound. Nearly ten million Chinese tourists are suddenly a liability
A short note on the risk of a pandemic caused by a new strain of coronavirus in China - The difference from the Sars-outbreak in 2003
21. January 2020
2020 Outlook roadshow: There will be no or only delayed updates on January 22
Germany: Investor sentiment jumps, according to the January ZEW survey
Britain: The best forward-looking employment indicators show a 'less upbeat' rather than a 'downbeat' labour market
A short note on the new strain of coronavirus in China
20. January 2020
Taiwanese export orders report shows tentative signs of a meagre rebound in global and Chinese manufacturing activity
17. January 2020
USA: Housing starts skyrocket to the highest level since 2006 as tailwinds prevail
Britain: Retail sales disappointing big time in December raises the likelihood of negative growth in Q4. Fiscal stimulus measures are in the pipeline
China 'decides' to report the slowest growth rate since 1989. The underlying details should give rise for concern in Washington and Brussels
16. January 2020
USA: Strong third-quarter retail sales statistics as households barely see headwinds
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows tentative signs of bouncing back. This still needs to be reflected in the national ISM survey
Turkey: Ankara cuts policy rates aggressively at the same time as the fiscal deficit hits a new all-time high
China: House prices are even weaker than reflected in official statistics. The dark clouds remain on the horizon despite a 'fantastic' trade deal
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey fails to show a rebound in downbeat manufacturing sentiment despite US-China trade deal and fiscal stimulus measures
15. January 2020
USA: Manufacturing Empire State survey shows no evidence of a 'fantastic phase-one trade deal'
Euro-zone: A record high trade surplus with the United States provides more ammo to the next leg in the 'global trade war'
China: Trade report shows signs of stronger infrastructure spending - weak 'phase one' trade deal will only 'buy time'
13. January 2020
Britain: The economy shows signs of broad-based contraction in the last quarter of 2019. The outlook is deteriorating
France: A short note on the government's decision not to raise the retirement age
10. January 2020
USA: Employment report is neither too cold nor too hot, at least from the perspective of the Federal Reserve
Spain: Manufacturing output bounced back in November, but consumer confidence falls sharply in December. The left-wing coalition plans a reversal of the labour market reform
Iran scoring an own goal by shooting down a Ukrainian passenger plane weakens the case for Tehran
Global: The rebound in leading manufacturing indicators has so far been a huge disappointment. Policymakers are close to pressing the 'panic button' as 'zero growth' is not an option
7. January 2020
USA: ISM service headline index improves in December, but the underlying details remain weak
Euro-zone: Robust consumer spending bodes well for growth in the last quarter of 2019. Nonetheless, the outlook is less upbeat
A short note on John Bolton's offer to testify: The Democrats have nothing to lose
Sweden: PMI service survey shows lacklustre growth outlook - but the forecast for the Swedish currency remains positive
6. January 2020
Iran crisis: Trump won a pyrrhic victory, but the United States risks becoming the big loser while Beijing wisely stays out of the conflict
3. January 2020
USA: Disappointingly weak manufacturing ISM survey as 'fantastic' trade deal fails to boost sentiment. Production index plunges
The killing of Iran Revolutionary Guard commander could turn into a nightmare for President Trump who is not prepared for the next step in the conflict
Global macroeconomic update presentation focusing on the main drivers in 2020
2. January 2020
Sweden: Weak manufacturing PMI survey in December will not change the fact that low-public-sector-debt currencies will outperform in the first half of 2020
China: Weak PMI surveys underscore why Beijing is now on a path of more aggressive monetary easing. Financial repression gains the upper hand
20. December 2019
There will be no updates from December 23 until January 1, both days included, due to the Christmas holiday.
Germany: GfK survey shows a steep decline in households' income expectations as negative interest rates, perversely, boost the savings rate to the highest level since 2008
19. December 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey shows weak short-term demand but strong long-term demand
France: The broader business sentiment index remains buoyant, as President Macron still has the upper hand
18. December 2019
A short update on the euro against the US dollar. What escalating trade tensions in 2020 mean for the euro?
Germany: IFO index bounces back in December propelled by sentiment in the service sector. Manufacturing sector barely improves. Robert Lighthizer and China threaten Germany and the EU
17. December 2019
USA: Manufacturing output rose in November. What if the best short-term leading indicators were to bounce back sharply in January?
Britain: A robust labour market is on its last legs, but a recession is no longer part of the storyboard
USA: Homebuilder sentiment index jumps to the highest level since June 1999 as housing 'demand' benefits from an unusually accommodative monetary environment
16. December 2019
USA: Manufacturing Empire State index barely bounces back from an already low level, but the capital expenditure index jumps
China: House prices continue to increase at a slower pace as Beijing enters a path of monetary easing
China: Manufacturing output bounces back, but underlying details remain weak. Beijing 'bullying' raises fundamental questions overseas about the future relationship with China
13. December 2019
USA: November retail sales report disappoints, but consumer spending will remain robust in the first half of 2020
Anecdotal evidence from China: The economy remains weak and the leadership appears divided. Beijing needs, therefore, a trade deal more than ever before
A short note to the 'Torben Andersen podcast interview' - Why central banks are worried about the consequences of digital currencies
The primary lesson from Britain's national election: 'Stay away from the far-left' and show unity
12. December 2019
USA: Benign inflation environment in November. A tight labour market poses a much larger risk to price stability than import tariffs