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19. June 2019
EU: Monetary policy contradicting the climate challenge will continue to fuel populist parties. Germany shows what lies ahead
18. June 2019
USA: Housing starts surprise to the upside as the monetary environment improves. A dovish ECB complicates the policy task of the Federal Reserve
Germany: ZEW headline index plunges in June as the corporate sector faces several headwinds, not least sweeping climate policy changes
Turkey: Industrial output plunges ahead of the rerun of local elections in Istanbul. A 'double-dip recession' is in the pipeline
China: House prices continue higher; Beijing cannot afford falling asset prices as households face more headwinds 
17. June 2019
USA: The regional manufacturing Empire State headline index plunges in June. Corporate spending plans decline sharply as well
Euro-zone: Labour shortage boosts wage inflation in the first quarter of 2019. A dramatic political shift in Germany is underestimated by the financial market
USA: The White House's inconsistent foreign policy has created a 'world of disorder'
USA: Strong economic statistics make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut policy rates, although the situation could change dramatically in the second half of 2019
14. June 2019
+++There will only be delayed updates on June 14+++
China: The economy is rapidly losing momentum; aggressive monetary easing is in the pipeline, not least if the G20-meeting turns into a fiasco
13. June 2019
Euro-zone: Industrial output contracts in April, but there are no signs yet of a growth collapse
President Trump's war on several fronts could turn self-destructive
USA: The budget deficit soars as the 'sentiment boost' from the tax cuts has not yet emerged
12. June 2019
USA: Inflation remains subdued despite the threat of global supply chain disruption caused by the trade war
China: Monetary statistics show policymakers are nervous to make the same 'policy mistake' as in 2008-2009. This will change in the second half of 2019
China: Consumer price inflation increases propelled by food prices; inflation at the factory gates continues to decline. President Xi cannot afford to show weakness in Hongkong
11. June 2019
US small business sentiment jumps in May, as the labour market tightens, according to NFIB
Britain: The labour market shows tentative signs of slowing, but the best leading indicators see an increased risk of a recession in 2020
China: Exports boosted by 'frontloading' after new US tariffs threats; imports plunge. Beijing launches more aggressive stimulus measures
7. June 2019
There will be no updates on June 10 due to a public holiday in Denmark
USA: Surprisingly weak labour market report in May boosts the possibility of a significantly more dovish Federal Reserve
Germany: Manufacturing output plunges by a steep 2.5% in April as Berlin is headed towards a radical political shift towards the left
Japan: The Diffusion Index continues to bounce back, but dark clouds remain on the horizon
6. June 2019
USA: The April trade report shows a sharp decline in exports and imports; Trump waging trade war on several fronts will hit global growth in 2020
A short note on a rapidly changing political environment in Germany: The majority of voters prefer a 'red-red-green' government rather than the current 'Groko' coalition
Germany: Industrial orders fail to make a visible rebound in April. The outlook is weak due to the 'climate wave' in Europe, more nationalism in China and a US president believing in mercantilism
USA: ISM service survey shows a resilient economy despite the ongoing trade war. Trade tensions with EU will escalate as the 'climate wave' in Europe is like a red rag to a bull in the White House
4. June 2019
The Euro-zone unemployment rate declines in April to the lowest level since 2008. The risk of Groko collapse creates new uncertainty
Spain: The political situation turns less gloomy after Ciudadanos rejects the far-right Vox party
Podcast interview with China expert Professor Stig Thøgersen about the formation of public opinion in China, Xi Jinping, nationalism and the risk of an upcoming Taiwan crisis
Australia cuts policy rates as the economy faces headwinds from weak domestic demand, China as well as the United States
3. June 2019
USA: The ISM manufacturing index continues to weaken as the trade war escalates to a more dangerous level
Turkey: Inflation in May falls below market expectations, but stays at an elevated level
China: Caixin's manufacturing PMI index stays close to the 'contraction' zone; Beijing raises the stakes by making a blacklist of 'unreliable' foreign companies
31. May 2019
Japan: Strong hard data do not change the fact that the outlook is gloomy. Consumer confidence falls again sharply
China: PMI index falls sharply in May as the 'cold war' escalates. Is political aftermath in Beijing a possible outcome?
29. May 2019
Germany: Unemployment jumps at the same time as Merkel has apparently second thoughts about the CDU leadership transition
Sweden: Q1 growth surprises to the upside, but the outlook is weak as the Riksbank erodes households' real purchasing power
The US-China trade conflict shows that history often repeats itself - unfortunately
28. May 2019
US consumer confidence skyrockets in May. The labour market tightens, according to households
EU Commission survey shows surprisingly strong economic sentiment index in the Euro-zone in May. The British and the Swedish ESI indexes fall sharply
Turkey: The latest economic confidence index is a harbinger of an even deeper recession in 2019
Euro-zone: French consumer confidence jumps as German consumer sentiment falls. The long-term growth outlook remains weak
27. May 2019
European Parliament elections: The 'green wave' shows voters want sweeping measures to fight climate change 'now rather than tomorrow'
24. May 2019
USA: Durable goods orders fell in April. The best forward-looking indicators herald more weakness to come
A short note on the latest 'China proxies'
Global economic and political update
23. May 2019
USA: New home sales report still does not show signs of recession in 2020. The 'hawks' are gaining the upper hand in the White House
Germany IFO survey: Manufacturing weakness feeds into the service sector
France: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back; Euro-zone economy could make a 'mini bounce' in the coming months
Germany: Q1 GDP details indicate a stronger underlying economy than outlined by the headline number
22. May 2019
Japan: Surprisingly strong Reuters Tankan survey reduces the risk of recession in 2019
Euro-zone consumer confidence index jumps in May despite higher inflation
21. May 2019
USA: Existing house prices increase at the slowest rate since 2012 despite a favourable environment
Turkey: Consumer confidence plunges to a new record low. The fiscal deficit is soaring
China anecdotal update shows deteriorating sentiment on the mainland
20. May 2019
USA: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index hits the highest level since January 2004. The Federal Reserve is forced to stay the course
Japan: Surprisingly strong Q1 growth caused by a sharp decline in imports - the outlook remains weak
16. May 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows signs of 'moderate' growth in 2019 and slower growth in 2020; but no signs of recession; ‌Investors misjudge what the White House aims for
China: House prices rose again in April. Beijing is on a delicate balancing act in the housing market
Is China 'weaponising' its holdings of US government bonds? If so, the effect will be limited
15. May 2019
USA: Industrial output dropped in April as US politics turn 'China-hostile' across the board 
US retail sales disappoint, but 'lagging' households still face tailwinds in the short run. A full-blown trade war will lead to a recession in 2020 
Euro-zone: The economy 'survived' in Q1, but the outlook is gloomy, as the risk of a trade war with the United States is on the rise
Germany: Flash GDP Q1 growth rate was in line with market expectations, but underlying details will probably show significant inventory build-up
China: The statistical office 'decides' to show what is obvious on the mainland namely slowing growth
14. May 2019
Britain: 'Brexit' has not yet proven a 'mistake' ahead of European Parliament Elections
Germany: ZEW survey shows a sharp decline in the expectations index as USA and EU prepares for the next trade war
USA: Strong small business sentiment survey shows no signs of headwinds from the trade war
TODAY, THE UPDATES MAY BE DELAYED DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT REUTERS-REFINITIV-DATASTREAM
13. May 2019
The USA-China 'trade war' is getting closer to a point of no return as 'hawks' gain the upper hand
10. May 2019
Italy: Industrial production contracts as absolute real GDP is still only at the 2009-level
Japanese workers' cash earnings falling at the fastest pace since 2015 and soaring inflation expectations hit consumer confidence in April
9. May 2019
USA: Producer price inflation remains subdued but the labour market is tightening and import tariffs could boost PPI and CPI
Spain: The effect of the 'Rajoy-reform process' is evaporating. Industrial output drops sharply in March
China: Monetary statistics in April support the case of a 'false dawn'. China is vulnerable if import tariffs are raised on Friday
China-USA: Are investors and the corporate sector prepared for geopolitical risks on the rise?
8. May 2019
Germany: The construction sector boosts industrial production in March. The outlook remains weak, according to the IFO survey
China: April trade report continues to show a very weak export sector. Do not count on Beijing and Washington to do the 'right thing' as other factors are at play
7. May 2019
Global: Geopolitical risks are on the rise. Is this included in equity risk premium calculations?
Germany industrial orders excluding 'big items' fell sharply in March
6. May 2019
Germany: Engineering orders fall by 10% in Q1; no signs of an upcoming rebound
The China-USA trade deal is 'no stronger than the next tweet from President Trump'. The latest tweet comes after an eventful weekend in Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and Israel
3. May 2019
USA: ISM service survey indicates significantly slower growth in the second half of 2019
USA: Robust April labour market report, but forward-looking indicators herald weakness in the second half of 2019
Euro-zone: Higher headline inflation will put a drag on private consumption; service inflation hits the highest level since 2011
Turkey: Inflation will not go away as the country has 'two central bankers'
2. May 2019
USA: 'Under-estimated' productivity rose strongly in Q1; this was the fastest annual rate of increase since 2009
No signs of relief in the Swedish and Swiss PMI surveys show that this is not a normal slowdown
Germany: Household spending at risk despite strong fundamentals
1. May 2019
USA: A disappointingly weak  ISM survey makes monetary policy a delicate balancing act
USA: Strong ADP employment report is 'supposed to' silence White House talk about a rate cut
30. April 2019
USA: Consumer confidence bounces back; a sharp increase in the share of households seeing 'plentiful-of-jobs' indicates a tight labour market
USA: Employment costs are on the rise, but the rate of increase is low considering a historically low unemployment rate
The Euro-zone 'appears' to survive a tough first quarter; Italy avoids recession
France: Higher inventories boost growth in the first quarter of 2019; the outlook remains weak 
China: Manufacturing PMI indexes decline despite 'stimulus measures', which do not hit the shores of the private corporate sector
29. April 2019
Euro-zone: Money supply accelerates at the same time as loan demand declines
Euro-zone survey shows yet another steep decline in the ESI index; industrial confidence index drops to the lowest since September 2014