Forgot login
Please fill in your e-mail adress below. We will send you a link with details on recovering your account.

 

Click image to close window.
14. December 2018
Christmas Holidays
USA: Strong retail sales report keeps the Federal Reserve on track for a rate hike next week - and 'more rate hikes' in 2019
What is the agenda of President Xi Jinping? 'The opening and closing of Chinese politics'
China: Disappointing economic statistics will force Beijing to act more decisively - the yuan is at risk
13. December 2018
Brazil - President Bolsonaro needs strong links to the military when  he launches pension reform just a global growth slows
Chinese policy-makers could soon be forced to react more aggressively to prevent a sharp decline in growth
12. December 2018
Euro-zone: Weak industrial output caused by several factors - Fiscal stimulus measures ahead of EP elections could soon be on the agenda
A short note on yet another Tory leadership challenge in Britain
11. December 2018
USA: Higher core PPI inflation does not change the fact that headline inflation has peaked - Small business sentiment falls sharply
China: Still no signs of faster credit expansion in the latest monetary statistics - Car sales contract
Britain: Wages increasing at the fastest rate since 2008 make the task of the BoE much harder
Turkey records a current account surplus in October as the economy contracts and imports plunge
10. December 2018
China: 'Frontloading' in 2018 will come back with a vengeance in 2019 - QE by late 2019 remains part of the storyboard
7. December 2018
A 'benign' US labour market report will not prevent the Fed from raising rates in December, but a more dovish central bank statement will provide a better level to sell the stock market
The Euro-zone is 'supposed to' be in a good growth position - but the political risk will play a much larger role in 2019 - Fiscal expansion in H2?
China: Foreign exchange reserves report and PBoC balance sheet show that Beijing finally tries to halt the decline of the yuan after having sponsored the opposite outcome
Germany: Industrial production disappoints again on the 'CDU decision day' - Both leading candidates could prove highly divisive
6. December 2018
USA: Strong ISM service survey does not make the task of the Federal Reserve any easier
USA: The trade deficit with China hits a new all-time high
The Chart Storyboard 2019 - An 'early release' of the charts
Japan: Manufacturing and service sentiment is holding up surprisingly well, according to the Reuters Tankan survey - This contradicts still the 'Diffusion Index' predicting sharp economic contraction
The trade war: Suspiciousness is on the rise as the world now has two superpowers - Dramatic escalation as the daughter of Huawei founder is arrested
The trade war: Suspiciousness is on the rise as the world now has two superpowers - Dramatic escalation as the daughter of Huawei founder is arrested
5. December 2018
USA: The yield curve matters, after all!
Strong Swedish PMI surveys could give rise to second thoughts when it comes to getting 'too negative' on Europe
China: Caixin service index bounces back sharply in November but after a weak October survey - 'Time' is not on President Trump's side; Beijing has plenty of time
4. December 2018
Spain: Strong labour market and economic outlook, but the political centre shrinking rapidly spells trouble, as the far-right gains strongly in regional elections
3. December 2018
USA: A strong manufacturing ISM survey provides no reason for the Federal Reserve to delay the monetary tightening process
Turkey: Inflation falls sharply; President Erdogan has much to thank the central bank for
China: Beijing's stimulus efforts are not visible in the Caixin and the NBS PMI surveys - Contradictory policy goals hit steel prices
Trade war: The 'temporary truce' only delays a full-blown trade war; US opioid crisis is also part of the deal in 'a strange inversion of history‌'
29. November 2018
There will be no updates on Friday, November 30
Sweden and Switzerland: Two more negative growth surprises in the third quarter
Euro-zone: Economic sentiment is holding up surprisingly well; no signs yet of falling inflation expectations despite a sharp decline in the oil price
Turkey: Sentiment bounces back after the central bank raised policy rates against the advice of Mr Erdogan
USA: Surprise, surprise, not; the Federal Reserve turns dovish, but monetary policy remains the same
28. November 2018
USA: A sharp decline in 'new home sales' combined with other 'long-term' leading indicators are pointing towards recession in Q4-2019 or Q1-2020
At first glance, ECB monetary aggregates show no signs of a slowing economy, but.....
USA: No revision to the Q3 GDP headline number, but change-in-inventories revised up and private consumption revised down
Germany: The GfK consumer climate index still indicates tailwinds for households in the very near future - but the medium-term outlook deteriorates
27. November 2018
USA: Consumer confidence declines in November but to a far lesser extent than outlined by the UoM survey
The 'Italian problem' could get worse in 2019, as the economy shows evidence of slowing - the League sees strong support in the latest opinion poll
A general overview of the global macroeconomic and political situation - December
France: Consumer confidence index falls sharply as households see higher inflation and a weaker labour market 
USA: Dallas Fed survey shows significant weakness - capital expenditure index plunges
26. November 2018
Germany: Manufacturing sentiment falls sharply in November as the CDU will soon vote for 'mini-Merkel' or a market-oriented Merz
Germany: Manufacturing sentiment falls sharply in November as the CDU will soon vote for 'mini-Merkel' or a market-oriented Merz
23. November 2018
‌‌The CDU's choice between 'mini-Merkel' - status quo - or a more market-oriented Friedrich Merz
Germany: Hillary Clinton and CDU's leadership contest - Signs of significant 'frontloading' in the Q3 GDP report details
22. November 2018
France: Manufacturing and service sentiment stabilises in November, but inflation at the factory gates is on the rise; 'yellow west' roadblocks continue
Japan: 'Normalising' inflation shows that the economy no longer needs an unusual monetary policy
21. November 2018
USA: A weak durable goods orders report does not change a positive short-term growth outlook for corporate spending, but the best 'long-term' indicators show weakness
A short note on the oil price - including a chart update
20. November 2018
USA: The housing market, an early-indicator, could soon pay the costs of having launched tax cuts late in the economic cycle
Trade war: 'Sputnik moments' boost the risk of a full-blown trade war
France: President Macron is doing all the right thing, but he might not be able to prevent 'the storming of the Bastille'
19. November 2018
USA: NAHB index fell sharply in November caused by higher prices and interest rates
16. November 2018
USA: Industrial output should continue to show steady growth in the very near future, but clouds are on the horizon in 2019
Turkey: Manufacturing output plunges in September - the corporate sector's high foreign debt level means that the central bank is walking a delicate balancing act
15. November 2018
USA: Soft retail sales report in October, but 'lagging' consumer spending should continue to see tailwinds in the first half of 2019
US Philadelphia Fed survey shows a steep decline in the headline as well as the six-month outlook index - Price pressure remains at an elevated level
Britain: PM May is forced to call a new parliamentary election - A second Brexit referendum would be seen as an 'undemocratic' outcome and could have long-lasting political consequences
A short note on possible USA-China trade talks: 'Free trade in our time' deal is needed by both sides to gain time - 'Too much economic integration with China compromises national security' - report
China: House price inflation at the highest level since July 2017 - 'If they tell you it is a bear market, it is bull'
14. November 2018
A short note on the US October budget deficit: Revenues decline and expenditures increase
Japan: Several natural disasters caused the economy to contract in the third quarter - the outlook is 'cloudy'
Germany: The economy contracted in Q3 despite 'strong fundamentals' - more clouds on the horizon in H1-2019
China: No signs of 'growth panic', but Maersk CEO indirectly explains why the situation could change significantly in H1-2019
13. November 2018
Germany: ZEW survey shows the dark clouds will not disappear - ECB's Praet turns dovish
China: Monetary statistics show weak credit expansion - 'QE with Chinese characteristics' could be a possible outcome in H2-2019
USA: Small business sentiment survey shows no signs of weakness - but the second leg of 'Trumponomics' will soon create headwinds
China: Fiscal data provides insight into a weakening economy - central government revenues rose at the weakest pace since 2009
A short note on the US dollar - the same forces are still at play
12. November 2018
The case for significant headwinds in 2019 is building: Political instability in the United States and Europe and Xi Jinping's lukewarm support for economic reforms
9. November 2018
USA: Households, a 'lagging indicator', will not see the 'costs of Trumponomics' until Q2 - but they will soon see the first dark clouds on the horizon
USA: Producer price inflation jumps in October as the costs of Trumponomics hit the shores - Higher inflation and slower growth in H1-2019
France: The growth outlook is deteriorating, as the economy faces several headwinds
China: Moderate inflation in October - Xi Jinping adjusts his 'lukewarm' attitude toward the private sector, as the risk of significantly slower growth in H1-2019 increases
8. November 2018
Germany running at full capacity utilisation pulls the trade surplus lower - CDU, CSU and SPD continue to see support decline to a new record low
Japan: A highly ambiguous data flow - Upbeat Reuters Tankan survey and a steep decline in core machinery orders
China: The trade war continues to fuel growth on the mainland; the boomerang will soon come back with a vengeance
7. November 2018
Brazil is headed towards a 'cold turkey' as 'Milton Friedman' enters the stage
China: Foreign exchange reserves decline in October - A steeper decline could be in the pipeline in 2019 as growth slows
Japan: The diffusion index falling to 2009-level is a harbinger of a sharp manufacturing contraction in H1-2019
A short note on the outcome of the US mid-term elections: US-dollar, yields and stock market
6. November 2018
Germany: Non-Euro-zone orders put a drag on industrial orders in September - IFO survey shows declining momentum going into 2019
Unplugged 'Travel Notes: Beijing reinforcing the use of 'big data' puts Europe in a quandary
5. November 2018
USA: ISM service survey continues to herald robust growth going into 2019
Turkey: Inflation hits a new record high - Ankara inclined to boost fiscal stimulus poses a risk to the lira - The latest lira strength leaves no room for policy mistakes
China: Caixin PMI service index takes a beating, as the economy could be exposed to a 'double-whammy' in 2019
26. October 2018
China trip: October 26 - November 2
25. October 2018
USA: Corporate spending remains on a steady upward trend, but there are tentative signs of 'upcoming' weakness in several regional surveys
Germany: IFO survey is a harbinger of slower growth going into the first quarter of 2019 - Next step in the political mess is Hessen
Spain: The unemployment rate declines to the lowest level since 2008, but unemployment could again be on the rise by mid-2019
24. October 2018
USA: One of the best recession indicators, new home sales, plunged in September
France: Manufacturing sentiment declines sharply to the lowest level since November 2016
23. October 2018
Britain could be hit by several headwinds in 2019
Turkey: Consumer confidence declines to the lowest level since November 2008 - 'Investigator' Erdogan will not help Turkey
A general overview of the global macroeconomic and political situation - November
Germany: Producer price inflation hits the highest level since December 2011 - The sponsors behind the stock and bond market rally have disappeared