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Public
21. June 2022
Vacation - part 1 - from June 21 to July 1
20. June 2022
Germany: The extent of the ECB's 'policy mistake' is unforgivable, but what if this is a deliberate policy?
16. June 2022
Podcast interview with Carsten Rasmussen, Danish Brigadier General: Will Berlin-Paris-Rome make a '1938 deal' with Russia at the expense of Ukraine?[language: Danish]
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey boosts the probability of manufacturing recession to 100%
The Federal Reserve regains credibility, while the ECB is on a 'mission impossible'. The Bank of Japan is 'the last man standing'
15. June 2022
USA: Household spending takes another beating. Soon, a negative wealth effect will hit private consumption as well, but the Federal Reserve is finally doing the right thing
Japan: The manufacturing sector sees support from a weak yen. More than half of households now expect inflation of more than 5%
China: Beijing has a growth problem despite stronger-than-expected May statistics - and it is, to no small extent, man-made headwinds
14. June 2022
USA: Small business sentiment survey indicates significant inflation pressure, falling sales, tighter labour market - and more monetary tightening
The 'old guards' in charge of the European Union are sweetmeat for President Putin - but also good reasons to worry about what comes next
13. June 2022
Britain, EU and USA: The recession call is not 2023 but 2022. The geopolitical situation deteriorates as Taiwan-China tension increases
10. June 2022
USA: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey reveals the extent of the Federal Reserve's problem even though the central bank is finally doing the right thing
The US economy has a massive inflation problem, which will be followed by deflation from mid-2023. This is the price of having responded too late to inflation pressure
China: The inflation environment remains benign, but the economy is exposed to significant headwinds 
9. June 2022
ECB press conference: President Lagarde's performance was 'inflationary' because she did nothing to repair the credibility of the bank
ECB decision: The 'wrong answer' to the inflation problem could, potentially, plunge the EMU into a deep crisis
Britain: The housing market sees the first indications of a tsunami coming
China: Exports bounce back in May, but overseas demand is slowing rapidly - and domestic demand is weak
8. June 2022
Inflation has 'maybe' peaked, but supply-side inflation will stay elevated - and keep monetary policy tightening on track
7. June 2022
Germany: Industrial orders plunge in April - in line with the IFO survey but much weaker than the market consensus. More weakness to come.
Japan: Wages are on the rise but not fast enough to prevent real purchasing power erosion. Monetary tightening is around the corner
3. June 2022
There will be no updates on June 6 due to a public holiday in Denmark
USA: ISM service survey indicates more weakness, as inflation pressure will not go away
USA: Employment report shows strong employment growth but not accelerating wage increases. Not too hot, but the report still supports many rate hikes
South Korea: Higher-than-expected inflation will force the Bank of Korea to speed up its tightening process
2. June 2022
Brazil: The lull before the storm - and the choice between a rock and a hard place
Euro-zone: The case for even higher bond yields remains strong despite falling inflation in the second half of 2022. The Euro-zone bond market is still out of whack
1. June 2022
USA: ISM survey shows robust manufacturing activity - and price pressure remains at an elevated level but declining slightly. This keeps the Federal Reserve on a path of significant monetary tightening
European Union: The 'delayed delivery' of orders placed in Q3, 2021, creates havoc for many retailers, as the demand-side situation has changed radically
Germany: Retail sales take a significant beating, as inflation creates 'demand destruction'. More real purchasing power erosion coming
31. May 2022
USA: Households face headwinds, according to the Conference Board consumer survey but still not to the same extent as in 2008
Euro-zone: Inflation hitting a new all-time high will force the ECB to face the reality in the 'real world'. The ECB will follow the Federal Reserve
China: The 'reopening process' boosts business sentiment, but Beijing's Covid strategy will not go away, as the authorities eye the next variant, Omicron Ba.5
30. May 2022
Germany: Inflation jumps to the highest since 1952, as 'stability' is no longer part of Berlin's vocabulary. The ECB will be forced to tighten many times - and soon the Bank of Japan will follow
Euro-zone: EU Commission survey shows moderating inflation pressure - and weak consumer sentiment
25. May 2022
Geopolitics goes from 'bad' to 'terrible'. President Biden's 'Taiwan speech' and the 'Xinjiang files' could bring forward 'unavoidable' tensions between the West and China
Sweden: Consumer confidence drops to the lowest level since 2008, but the corporate sector underestimates what is coming. Geopolitics goes from 'bad' to 'terrible'
Germany: A 'delayed' refilling of inventories was the only growth contributor in the first quarter, but the demand-side situation has changed markedly since Q3 in 2021
24. May 2022
USA: New home sales statistics underscore that 'recession' is coming. A sharp decline in existing home prices is in the pipeline, according to a sharp increase in the inventory of unsold homes
France: Business sentiment is holding up supported by a rebound in service sentiment. Manufacturing inflation expectations jump to a new record high
Podcast interview with Claus Mathiesen, Royal Danish Defence College, and former defence attaché in Ukraine: Where is Russia headed? [language: Danish]
23. May 2022
Germany: The IFO survey shows an unchanged gloomy outlook, but the 'feared outcome 'has not yet hit the shore
20. May 2022
Germany: Inflation is out of control and voters are not pleased. Workers not only worry about inflation, but they also worry about job security in a tight labour market
Britain: Consumer confidence hits the lowest level since the First Oil Crisis - and the food crisis has only just started. China eases monetary policy
19. May 2022
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey further increases the risk of recession in the second half of 2022
Euro-zone: It feels as if European policymakers do not really understand what is coming
Japan's weak-yen policy backfires, as expensive imports of energy soar. The Bank of Japan making a U-turn poses another risk to the global financial market
18. May 2022
Britain: Inflation jumps to the highest since January 1982, as the Bank of England uses more time on finding excuses rather than confronting the problem, inflation
China: The impact of Beijing's policy mistakes hits the shores more broadly
17. May 2022
USA: Inflation boosts retail sales, but retail sales in volume terms contract significantly. The report reflects inflation and real purchasing power erosion
Euro-zone: The big slow-down will come abruptly and as a huge surprise to policymakers
16. May 2022
USA: Consumer sentiment plunges, but inflation expectations stabilise at an elevated level
Germany: There are no signs of slowing inflation pressure. Food price inflation gains the upper hand. The next factors are social and political tensions
China: The Great Leap Backward hits the economy in April. The risk of recession is high unless Beijing makes a 'highly unlikely' policy U-turn
12. May 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation seems to have peaked. The Federal Reserve seems to be in a better position to rein in inflation expectations than the ECB
The ECB underestimates what the bank has started: The EMU has turned 'south European' - a steep euro decline can no longer be ruled out
Britain: The economy loses momentum, but a far too accommodative monetary policy still supports home prices. More aggressive tightening is still in the pipeline despite slower growth
11. May 2022
There are no updates on Friday, May 13, due to a public holiday in Denmark
US CPI report: Energy inflation slows, but inflation is broadening to the entire economy. Inflation expectations will not go away without significant monetary tightening
Australia: Consumer sentiment plunges. The Australian bond market poses a warning to the Euro-zone
China: Inflation surprises to the upside - but Beijing makes no surprises. Instead, Xi Jinping doubles down on the Covid strategy
10. May 2022
USA: NFIB small business survey shows evidence of 'demand destruction' - the demand side is down and prices are on the rise
Podcast interview with Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China: China is losing its credibility as the best sourcing location in the world
Insightview recommends taking short-term profit on the 'short US stock market' strategy
9. May 2022
China's trade report underscores the 'friendship' of Putin and Xi Jinping - but also more trouble for the mainland economy. FX reserves drop at the fastest rate since 2016
A short note on two cornered autocratic leaders 'forced' to tighten their grip on power more aggressively
6. May 2022
USA: The demand for workers is strong, but the supply is not increasing accordingly
Japan: 'Low' inflation combined with a reversal of monetary policy could make the yen an inflation hedge
5. May 2022
A short note on the Federal Reserve raising policy rates: Mr Powell, who also predicted 'transitory inflation', now forecasts a 'soft landing'. Is this a relief?
Germany: Industrial orders plunge in March as predicted by the IFO survey. More weakness in the pipeline as the ECB is no longer part of the solution
4. May 2022
USA: The ISM service survey shows slowing growth and inflation pressure at an all-time high - not a good cocktail for the stock market
Euro-zone: Retail sales dropped in March but are headed for an even steeper decline in the second quarter - and there will be no help from a 'cornered' ECB
Sweden: PMI service shows a strong rebound in the employment index to the highest level since 2018. The Riksbank has plenty of reasons to continue monetary tightening
USA: JOLTS survey shows how much the Federal Reserve is behind the curve. What are the consequences?
3. May 2022
Germany: A very tight labour market with a recession on the horizon shows how complicated the situation is for the ECB significantly behind the curve
Delayed update: US manufacturing ISM survey shows possible signs of 'demand destruction' caused by soaring inflation. Anyhow, the monetary tightening process remains on track
2. May 2022
Euro-zone: The corporate sector's inflation expectations jump to a new all-time high. 'In Europe, you haven’t even begun to see the effects of China lockdown. The ships coming into Europe today left Shanghai before the lockdown'
China: The official PMI survey shows a steep and broad-based decline in economic sentiment. This is a man-made downturn linked to the 'core leader'
29. April 2022
There will be no updates after 1 PM on Monday, May 2
USA: PCE inflation headline inflation hits the highest level since 1982 - core inflation declines
Germany: Import price inflation hits the highest level since 1974. Suddenly, ECB President Lagarde admits that 'her economic team made a mistake'
28. April 2022
USA: The economy contracted in Q1, but real domestic demand was strong. Inflation continues to go higher
Germany: Consumer price inflation hits the highest level since 1974. Unfortunately, there is more price pressure in the pipeline from Russia, China and food prices
Sweden: The Riksbank finally raises policy rates as inflation expectations hit a new all-time high, according to the NIER survey. Soon, the ECB will follow - and a reluctant Bank of Japan
27. April 2022
Germany: GfK consumer sentiment plunges to an all-time low as the economy faces the biggest crisis since the Second World War
26. April 2022
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey continues to see falling consumer expectations and elevated inflation but to a smaller extent than in Europe
A short note on China's handling of the Omicron variant: Is this more a political power game than about Omicron? Still, the consequence is 'the mother of all supply chain disruption'
25. April 2022
Britain: CBI survey shows a steep decline in business optimism
Germany: A minor rebound in the IFO business sentiment index does not change a dire growth outlook for the second half of 2022
The risk of a deep global recession means that Insightview recommends unwinding the 'long the Australian dollar against the euro and the US dollar' strategy
22. April 2022
Britain: Consumer confidence plunges as households face a tsunami of problems - and they are not 'transitory'
21. April 2022
USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey is now a 'clear indicator' of recession in H2
Podcast interview with Michael Chang, Yara Marine Technologies, in Shanghai: The consequences of what looks like a failed Covid strategy in China
France: Business sentiment stays at an elevated level in April. The 'risk of Marine Le Pen' declines after yesterday's TV debate
Dutch consumer confidence index plunges to a new all-time low significantly lower than in 2020. The impact of all skeletons falling out of the closet simultaneously is underestimated by the financial market
20. April 2022
USA: Existing home sales drop as higher mortgage rates and real wage erosion create headwinds
Germany: Factory gate prices skyrocketed in March. A failed Covid-strategy in China will add even more upward pressure on prices in the coming months
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Sorensen: The global consequences of President Putin's historical policy mistake of invading Ukraine - and a few words on the Danish EU defence opt-out referendum [Language: Danish]
19. April 2022
A short note on why the ECB has many good reasons to be scared when it comes to making a monetary U-turn - but it has no other option
China: A strong Q1 GDP report does not fit into the overall picture. The economy faces heavy headwinds - and Xi Jinping is under pressure