Forgot login
Please fill in your e-mail adress below. We will send you a link with details on recovering your account.

 

Click image to close window.
Public
2. December 2022
USA: The November employment report underscores that the risk of second-round inflation will not disappear without a significant increase in unemployment
Germany: A sharp decline in import and producer prices will continue adding downward pressure on consumer price inflation to the range of 6% to 7% - but the same factors will add upward pressure from February
1. December 2022
USA: ISM manufacturing index declines into the 'contraction zone' - as predicted by the Philadelphia Fed survey for some time now
Germany: Retail sales plunged in October despite falling energy prices - and now energy prices are again on the rise, triggering 'postponed price increases'
Japan: Consumer confidence drops as households' inflation expectations hit a new all-time high. The labour market tightens markedly
30. November 2022
Eurozone: Headline inflation finally declines as expected, but core inflation increases - and now winter is coming
China: PMI survey shows Beijing is caught between a rock and a hard place - due to self-inflicted problems. Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin has died
29. November 2022
Eurozone: EU Commission survey shows falling inflation pressure - and improving economic sentiment - but a fragile energy infrastructure will create inflation pressure for years to come
Podcast interview with China expert Joergen Delman: Is there more than just Covid that has triggered the protests in China?
Sweden: The NIER survey heralds economic contraction and elevated inflation pressure for longer - despite falling prices in the coming months
28. November 2022
Eurozone: Monetary aggregates show a slowing economy - and a tighter liquidity situation. Investors will demand positive real bond yields as the ECB is no longer the buyer of last resort
The protests in China: The generational clash - or the conflict between the 'old-fashioned' Communist Party on the one side and the well-educated middle class and the young generation on the other side
25. November 2022
Japan: Tokyo inflation hits the highest since 1982 - and wage pressure is rising. Yen appreciation could be one of the most significant events in 2023
Eurozone: French and German consumer confidence improves, supported by compensation for 'energy inflation that disappeared'. Schnabel sees this as a good reason for the ECB to act
A short note on China's health and economic crises: The world needs to be prepared for a new wave of supply disruption in 2023
24. November 2022
Germany: The IFO headline index bounces back as energy prices plunge - at least until a week ago. Supply chain problems remain high, according to the IFO Institute
France: Insee business sentiment surveys show only a moderate growth decline - but increasing supply problems. Factory prices jump as energy prices bounce back from the rock bottom
23. November 2022
USA: New home sales statistics keep the 'mild recession' scenario alive - but also the monetary 'normalisation process'
Eurozone: Consumer confidence bounces back as households are compensated for energy inflation that 'disappeared'. It makes the 'normalisation process' easier for the ECB
A short note on China facing an unprecedented health crisis - and recession
22. November 2022
USA: The probability of a more profound recession is on the rise because the Federal Reserve is forced to err on the hawkish side
21. November 2022
China: Taiwan's export orders report shows a fragile mainland China economy. China facing the same Covid outbreak as Europe did in the last quarter of 2021 will create new global supply chain problems - and dilemma for Beijing
Germany: Factory gates inflation declines sharply in October - three months after energy prices peaked in August
18. November 2022
ECB: Everyone is on board - also President Lagarde. Fighting inflation is now a priority - but this will make significant inroads into 'excess liquidity' - and economic activity
Japan: Inflation hits the highest since 1991. The central bank maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy until it is no longer the case
17. November 2022
USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey underscores what an inverted yield curve also concludes: recession. But the Federal Reserve has more tightening to do
The Eurozone is on the same fiscal path as former Prime Minister Truss - and with no leader who can look after the interests of the union
Australia: A few rate hikes are not enough to slow growth and inflation. The unemployment rate hits an all-time low
16. November 2022
China: House prices continue lower. Beijing will soon discover that there is no easy way towards socialism without causing collateral damage
15. November 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation declines - precisely as outlined by the best forward-looking inflation indicators - but the Federal Reserve will not rest before inflation is below 3%
Britain: Strong wage gain will keep the Bank of England on a path of monetary tightening. This, and fiscal tightening, will reduce inflation expectations markedly in 2023
Germany: Inflation will decline significantly, but bond yields are headed higher
China: The October statistics disappoint - but are still surprisingly robust, considering contracting tax revenues and historically low consumer confidence
11. November 2022
USA: Consumer confidence declines sharply. Inflation expectations increase. Soon, households' net worth will decline
Britain: The first step into recession was taken in Q3, but the Bank of England will still be forced to tighten monetary policy
Eurozone: ECB policymakers are finally awake - and they have turned hawkish. The 'Ukraine excuse' is no longer used by the central bank
10. November 2022
A short note on the US October inflation report: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will not make the 1980-mistake made by Paul Volcker
USA: The October consumer price report undershoots elevated inflation expectations - to the surprise of the financial market
China: Monetary aggregates statistics show no signs of aggressive stimulus measures from Beijing
Italy: The economic situation 'appears stable', but this will not last, as Rome has no room for manoeuvring. The consumer confidence index plunges to the lowest since 2013 due to soaring inflation
Britain: The RICS survey is a harbinger of a steep price decline in house prices in 2023, which looks increasingly like a global phenomenon
9. November 2022
US midterm elections appear not to be the expected landslide victory for the Republicans. Donald Trump slowly becomes a liability
China: Factory gates deflation shows a weak economy. A challenge to hide 'recession' with the biggest sector contracting and consumer confidence at a record low
8. November 2022
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey provides no comfort to the Federal Reserve - wage pressure gains momentum
Podcast interview with a 'China insider', Mathias Boyer: Xi Jinping aims for centralisation, less urbanisation, and a socialist economy. What are the implications for growth? Must listen
7. November 2022
China: The October trade report shows the weakest export performance since May 2020, as Beijing opts for 'controlling risks' to the people rather than growth. Germany's China dependency hits a new high
4. November 2022
USA: The October employment report keeps the Federal Reserve on a path of more tightening - and, therefore, more global liquidity tightening
Eurozone: The Eurozone does not have the same inflation problem as the United States - but fiscal policymakers could make the problem worse
Germany: Industrial orders declined sharply in September, with more weakness coming. Annalena Baerbock warns Scholz about China
3. November 2022
USA: ISM service survey indicates slower growth, but inflation pressure remains elevated
USA: The Federal Reserve waited too long - and now it has to do too much. The ECB has good reasons to worry
2. November 2022
Has the Bank of Japan started 'undeclared' monetary tightening?
Eurozone: Policymakers need not worry about the labour shortage problem. A 'solution' is around the corner
Germany: Chancellor Scholz is 'forced' to travel to Beijing to kowtow to the 'Emperor', as Germany's manufacturing sector faces an existential crisis
1. November 2022
USA: ISM manufacturing survey underscores that falling inflation is in the pipeline, but the labour market remains far too tight
Britain: House prices declined in October at the fastest monthly pace since 2010 as buyers face headwinds from all directions
Germany: Wholesales and import prices herald a steep decline in annual consumer price inflation in the coming months - but the ECB will stay the course for good reasons
31. October 2022
Eurozone: The economy barely expands in Q3, as inflation hits a new all-time high. Fiscal policymakers will make ECB tightening much easier
China: Xi Jinping's print is evident in the official October PMI survey. US CHIPS Act will create severe headwinds. More Covid chaos hits Apple production
28. October 2022
Eurozone: EU Commission survey shows no rebound despite falling energy prices since August. ECB's task is far from done
Japan: Tokyo consumer price inflation hits the highest since 1991. Households' inflation expectations hit an all-time high
A short note on China: Going from 'bad' to 'worse'
USA: The Q3 GDP report will not change the stance of the Federal Reserve. Unemployment needs to increase more profoundly. The liquidity situation has tightened markedly
Eurozone: The ECB is finally 'data dependent'. The bank raises policy rates by 75 basis points
27. October 2022
Sweden: NIER Economic Tendency Survey shows accelerating downturn - weakness across the board
South Korea feels the heat from slowing global growth. Global slowdown, adverse demographics, and geopolitics will create headwinds in 2023
26. October 2022
ECB lending report shows signs of 'emergency borrowing'. The 'credit standard' for loan approval is deteriorating
China: Fiscal statistics paint a gloomy economic situation. Xi Jinping will keep his course with ideology as the main priority at the expense of the economy
25. October 2022
USA: Inflation dents consumer confidence - Conference Board. Philadelphia Fed survey shows strong service price inflation
Germany: IFO survey shows no decisive signs of a rebound in corporate sentiment despite falling energy prices. Olaf Scholz plays with fire by visiting Beijing
24. October 2022
China's Q3 GDP data are history - The country is now officially ruled by an authoritarian leader
By Invitation: Xi Jinping's moment of glory - winner takes all
21. October 2022
Britain: Consumers spend more for less. The 'Truss catastrophe' was only partly to blame for a sharp sell-off in the gilt market - but it is a lesson to the Labour party
20. October 2022
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey still heralds manufacturing recession
France: Business sentiment is steady, but underlying details show more than just an energy supply problem
Germany: No relief from the factory gates. The bond market shows that inflation is not the biggest problem. The paradigm shift is now the main headwind
19. October 2022
USA: The impact of higher mortgage rates hits the housing market across the board
Eurozone: How much could, potentially, nominal bond yields increase if the ECB is no longer there as a buyer of last resort?
Britain: Inflation stays at an elevated level. EU member states are making the same mistake as London before Truss made a U-turn
18. October 2022
USA: The manufacturing sector shows more resilience than in Europe. Conversely, the Federal Reserve will have to do more tightening
Germany's ZEW survey: Falling energy prices and households compensated for 'high energy prices' will keep the ECB on track towards significant monetary tightening
17. October 2022
China: History shows that it pays to listen to what authoritarian leaders say they will do in the future
USA: Empire States survey and UoM consumer sentiment survey show sticky inflation. The Federal Reserve remains on a firm path of tightening
14. October 2022
Britain: Kwasi Kwarteng exit shows the power of bond investors is strong without the central bank as the buyer of last resort - but real government bond yields are still too low
Germany: Berlin is doing nothing to reduce inflation pressure - and an incapable AfD leadership benefits from this
China: The details in the September inflation report underscore why yesterday's protest in Beijing could be more than just a rare social incident. Is this the top of an iceberg of dissatisfaction?
13. October 2022
USA: Sticky prices will force the Federal Reserve to stay the course for many months - and going into 2023
12. October 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation stays elevated, but 'core intermediate goods inflation' declines. The Federal Reserve remains on a path of tightening
Britain: The bumpy road away from quantitative easing leaves no room for manoeuvring. The Eurozone cannot afford to make the same mistakes
What will happen at the CCP party congress?
South Korea: The Bank of Korea raises policy rates by 0.5% to 3%. The economy faces multiple threats
11. October 2022
USA: NFIB small business survey shows that the Federal Reserve is on track but still has a long way to go
Japan: The Bank of Japan, like the ECB, has good reasons to worry about a monetary u-turn - but a weak yen has not moved exports higher since Abenomics was launched
10. October 2022
China: The economy could be headed towards its first recession
7. October 2022
USA: A robust employment report keeps the Federal Reserve on track towards more monetary tightening
Germany: Retail sales in volume terms drop sharply in August. The impact of falling energy prices is replaced by the fear of war in Europe
6. October 2022
Did Saudi Arabia just make a 'Putin mistake'?
Eurozone: Fiscal stimulus measures + monetary tightening = higher real bond yields
Germany: 'Big items' hit industrial orders in August. The outlook is weak, and Berlin's low-quality fiscal stimulus measures could create more pain in the bond market
5. October 2022
USA: The ISM service survey supports the Federal Reserve's stance of more monetary tightening. Unemployment is far too low, according to the central bank