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28. October 2020
Spain needs significant financial support, but this will be an uphill struggle as rich EU-members face their own Covid19 problems
Sweden: Economic sentiment improves in October, but 'what happened one week ago is old news' in Covid19 times
27. October 2020
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey shows an improving 'present situation' but falling expectations. Households' assessment of the labour market improves markedly
USA: Corporate spending continues to disappoint despite upbeat spending plans
Euro-zone: The ECB takes the lead in the global money-printing competition. This could weaken the 'euro-bull case'
South Korea: The economy bounces back in Q3, but the outlook is weak
26. October 2020
USA: The September new home sales report disappoints, but a low supply of unsold houses will continue to add upward pressure on existing home prices
Turkey: The costs of creating a rebound have been huge. Foreign exchange reserves are at the lowest level since 2005
Germany: IFO business survey shows a sharp decline in service sentiment while manufacturing sentiment improves
23. October 2020
USA: Existing home prices skyrocketing at the fastest rate since 2005 propelled by aggressive monetary easing
22. October 2020
Britain: CBI Trends survey gives rise to some optimism were it not for the fact that daily Covid19 cases tripled in the last two weeks
The case for selling the stock market
France: Service sentiment takes a beating as new Covid19 cases are skyrocketing
Germany: Households are losing confidence in the long-term outlook for the economy, according to the GFK consumer survey. Daily Covid19 cases jump above 11,000
21. October 2020
Britain: Fiscal deficit in September hits the highest level since 1993, as tensions between Sunak and Johnson emerge
20. October 2020
USA: Housing starts report disappoints, but the outlook remains strong. Be aware of fiscal policymakers changing policy stance after the November election
Taiwan: The details in a strong export orders report are, to no small extent, a reflection of different Covid19 strategies around the world
China: House price increases cool as regulators impose rules to put a lid on prices. Capital searching high and low for return will support the housing market in the short to medium term
19. October 2020
WEBINAR: Beijing's new assertiveness. A new reality for investors and companies in the new world order
China: Strong imports put a lid on Q3 GDP growth as a 'successful' Covid19 strategy boosts domestic demand
16. October 2020
USA: Manufacturing output report in September disappoints significantly despite buoyant soft data
USA: Retail sales jump in September as the economy is exposed to the biggest stimulus wave since the Second World War
15. October 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey maintains an upbeat short and long-term outlook. New orders index hits the highest level ever recorded
The second leg of Covid19 will test policymakers in the United States and Europe whose 'plan A' is based on 'economic mitigation' and a vaccine 'tomorrow' - but 'mitigation' will not make a virus go away
China: Falling food inflation puts a lid on consumer price inflation. Deflation still prevails at the factory gates
14. October 2020
China: Monetary statistics report shows that shadow banking has been the main credit facilitator during Covid19. Yuan appreciation makes leeway for more monetary easing
Australia: Consumer sentiment jumps as a prudent and more efficient Covid19-strategy pays off
13. October 2020
USA: Small business sentiment jumps in September. Inflation will soon make a comeback, according to NFIB
Britain: Poorly-educated workers and Prime Minister Johnson face trouble as 'job support scheme' comes to an end. The hangover from the rebound efforts will be painful
China: The details in the September trade report show a solid recovery based, to a large extent, on 'feeling safe' rather than 'mitigation'. All of Qingdao's nine million citizens to be Covid19-tested
12. October 2020
China is forced to join the global bandwagon of money-printing even though such a policy is not yet required
Podcast interview: What comes next when Angela Merkel steps down in 2021? Learn more about Germany's political landscape in this interview with Moritz Schramm, Associate Professor [FREE ACCESS]
9. October 2020
Until recently, Italy has handled the aftermath of the first wave better than Spain. This may be changing
Britain: The rebound is losing steam due to serious human-made policy-mistakes. New Covid19 cases are skyrocketing
8. October 2020
Germany: August trade report shows a stronger-than-market-expected rebound. Berlin reacts as the 'second wave of Covid19' has started
Japan: Economy Watchers Survey shows a sharp rebound in service sentiment as 'new hope' replaces 'old hope' as Prime Minister ' and deflationary pressure supports consumer sentiment
7. October 2020
Britain: Monetary policymakers sponsor soaring house prices, but the underlying economic momentum remains weak
Spain will soon need more help from Brussels, as Madrid's Covid19 strategy has failed big time. Is Italy headed in the same direction?
6. October 2020
USA: President Trump succeeded in deflating the trade deficit with China. Nonetheless, the overall deficit hit a new all-time high in August
Germany: Industrial orders jump in August as the country benefits from the reopening of Europe and the fact that Berlin remains in control of Covid19
5. October 2020
USA: Service sentiment rose in September as the economy faces tailwinds from fiscal and monetary policy
Euro-zone: Belgium and Germany boost retail sales in August. A bumpy road lies ahead
Turkey: Soaring inflation at the factory gates spell trouble for consumer price inflation. Ankara could soon face Russia in an escalating Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
2. October 2020
USA: September employment report shows a decline in the pace of improvement shortly ahead of the 'second wave' of Covid19
The 'Divided States of America' face a bumpy road, whoever gets elected in November
1. October 2020
USA: ISM manufacturing index declined in September but remains buoyant as Covid19 triggered a prescription of 'healing medicine' to the stock market and the corporate sector
Sweden benefits from European and US efforts to mitigate the impact of Covid19. This could backfire in 2021
Bank of Japan's quarterly survey shows a significantly weaker rebound than in most other countries
30. September 2020
Switzerland: Economic Barometer index jumps to the highest level since June 2010, as the economy faces several tailwinds - at least for now
China: The official manufacturing and service PMI surveys show a strengthening economic rebound. President Xi Jinping does not look back
USA: Consumer confidence index jumps in September supported by an unprecedentedly aggressive fiscal and monetary approach to an underestimated virus. There is no 'plan B'
Podcast interview with Jens Eskelund, Vice President of the European Chamber in China, about the situation for European companies in China
29. September 2020
Spain: The rebound in retail sales continues, but new Covid19 cases hit a new all-time high
Euro-zone: EU survey continues to show an economic rebound on track as unprecedented stimulus measures create 'very expensive' growth
By Invitation: Xi Jinping's response to complex challenges - China's 14th 5-year plan on the way
28. September 2020
China: Industrial profits remain on a path of getting closer to 'normalisation'. The Communist Party tightens its grip on the private sector
25. September 2020
US durable goods orders report disappoints despite a sharp rebound in the best forward-looking indicators
Britain: Indecisive Covid19 strategy keeps consumer confidence at a depressed level. A second wave could create the right environment for a double-dip recession
24. September 2020
USA: Money-printing will propel US house prices much higher in the coming months, as unsold 'new homes' hit a new all-time low
Germany: IFO survey shows a sharp increase in manufacturing sentiment, but a new wave of Covid19 could soon pull the service sector into a 'downswing'
France: Manufacturing sentiment improves but the service sector faces significant headwinds from a 'second wave' of Covid19 exceeding the peak in April
23. September 2020
Germany: Consumer sentiment barely improves in 'October' as European countries face a bumpier road due to Covid19 fatigue
22. September 2020
USA: The Federal Reserve's 'rescue mission' propels home sales higher and not least house prices
Britain: The misery continues, according to the September CBI Industrial Trends survey
EU: Dutch consumer confidence survey does not give rise to optimism. There is no 'plan B' to fill the gap from now to an efficient vaccine is distributed in 2021
21. September 2020
Strong Taiwanese export orders report shows, yet again, that a 'zero-tolerance Covid19 strategy' seems, so far, to have been the most successful
Covid19 pulls Japan back into the deflation zone
18. September 2020
USA: Consumer sentiment bounces back at a painfully slow pace supported by an improving labour market and a slowing trend in Covid19 cases. This could soon change because a second wave might be in the pipeline
Britain: Retail sales bounce back, as a 'second wave' hits the shore - and might soon turn into a more forceful wave because a new 'national lock-down' is out of the question
Podcast interview with Christine Stabell Benn, Professor in Global Health at the University of Southern Denmark, about 'fast-track' Covid19 vaccines and other tools in the toolbox [FREE ACCESS]
17. September 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows tentative signs of a manufacturing sector becoming 'slightly more self-propelled'. Corporate spending plans on the rise
Global macroeconomic chart update
USA: The NAHB homebuilder index jumps to the highest level since 1998 as Covid19 fuels the housing market
16. September 2020
US retail sales in August continue to bounce back, but progress is slowing. The rebound has far from turned self-propelled
Japan: Exports would have been much weaker without robust Chinese demand in August. Prime Minister Suga is a transition-figure
15. September 2020
USA: Industrial production is slowly moving back on track, but deflationary pressure will soon disappear
Germany: ZEW investor sentiment hits the highest level since February 2001
China's economic rebound continues as Beijing tries to keep the powder dry for more stimulus measures in 2021
14. September 2020
Euro-zone: The manufacturing rebound continues but will soon face headwinds. Deflation in 2020 will be followed by 'mild inflation' and it ends up with yet another round of useless deflation
China: House prices remain on an upward trend supported by several factors, not least capital 'prevented' from going abroad
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows painfully slow progress, while Prime Abe is expected to be succeeded by his clone
11. September 2020
Spain: The rebound in the manufacturing sector was stronger-than-expected in July - but Covid19 will not go away 'despite money-printing'
China: Monetary statistics show no signs of aggressive easing, but there are still many unanswered questions about the country's future direction - corrected
Britain: The economy continues bouncing back in July, as the economy 'reopens'. New daily Covid19 cases soar and Labour closes the gap in the latest opinion polls
10. September 2020
USA: Deflation pressure prevails in 2020, but the case for 'mild inflation' in 2021 is building sponsored by central banks 'cutting corners'
Italy: Industrial output bounces back faster-than-market-expectations, as the 'play button' has not yet been pressed in Europe
Britain: Three factors propel house prices higher, ironically, at the same time as British households face tremendous headwinds
9. September 2020
China: Inflation pressure declines in August. China could play an important adverse role for US and European households' real purchasing power in 2021 and beyond
8. September 2020
Brazil: President Bolsonaro combining 'national' and 'socialist' propels his approval rating significantly higher but spells trouble for the country
‌German exporters face a highly chaotic future as Berlin speaking with a forked tongue is now backfiring
Japan: Economy Watchers Survey heralds a strong rebound in consumer spending, but this is contradicted by a weak Reuters Tankan survey
7. September 2020
Germany: Industrial production disappoints in July, but August and September will turn out to be very strong. Nonetheless, several dark clouds are on the horizon
China: Exports recover as Beijing 'cheats' President Trump thoroughly
4. September 2020
US August employment report shows a slower rate of improvement despite aggressive fiscal and monetary easing
Germany: Industrial orders bounce back at a slower-than-expected pace, but more short-term strength is in the pipeline
3. September 2020
USA: ISM service survey continues to herald a very strong Q3 GDP growth report, but the economy has not yet turned into a self-propelled recovery
2. September 2020
Britain: House prices soar to a new record high 'despite', or maybe 'because of', Covid19
Australia: The economy plunges into recession in Q2. Nonetheless, the country remains in an excellent position reinforced by 'unoriginal' policymakers in Europe and the United States
Covid19 has reinforced the decline of 'market forces' sponsored by central banks. Western policymakers prioritise 'mitigating the impact' rather than solving the problem
1. September 2020
USA: Manufacturing sentiment continues to surprise to the upside as the economy is fuelled by fiscal as well as monetary stimulus measures