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20. November 2019
++There will only be delayed updates on Thursday, November 21++
Germany: Prices at the factory gates move deeper into the contraction zone. Unions and employers call for a €450 billion infrastructure spending initiative
19. November 2019
China: The fiscal deficit in October hits the highest level seen in the last three decades. Beijing has few options left
A short note on the US dollar and the euro: Diverging central bank balance sheets erode support for a fundamentally overvalued US dollar
18. November 2019
A short note on Hong Kong, US-China trade negotiations and the 'leaked documents'
15. November 2019
USA: Weak industrial output will keep the Federal Reserve on a path of 'quantitative easing' - more manufacturing weakness 'beyond GM' is in the pipeline
USA: Household spending is losing momentum, according to the October retail sales report, but consumers still see more tailwinds than headwinds
Euro-zone: The trade surplus with the United States hits a new all-time high
China: 'Second-hand' house price statistics show weakness. Beijing faces a dilemma
14. November 2019
Turkey: Industrial output makes a sharp rebound. Falling inflation makes leeway for more rate cuts
Japan: Weak Q3 GDP growth because 'front-loading' of private consumption was absent despite a hike in the value-added-tax rate
Germany: The economy escapes 'technical recession' but weakness in the auto sector could soon hit the service sector
China: Beijing faces economic headwinds, which are not within the range of the 'new normal'
13. November 2019
USA: Benign inflation continues to boost households' real purchasing power. Fiscal and monetary policy remains accommodative late in the business cycle
A short note on the swine fever in China: Why the outbreak worries Beijing as price pressure boost other food prices. Swine fever is spreading to other places around the world
Britain: Declining inflation maintains a robust rise in households' real spending power, but the best for households is coming to an end
The corporate sector created a supply chain based on costs optimisation. The price of rising 'political diversification' will add upward pressure on inflation further down the road
12. November 2019
Germany: ZEW survey bounces back, but the growth outlook remains weak
USA: Small business sentiment index increases in October as the job market remains buoyant
India: Manufacturing output plunges at the fastest rate since 2011. Moody's downgrades credit rating as the country 'is undergoing a significant slowdown'
11. November 2019
Britain: Manufacturing output contracts, but PM Johnson headed for a huge election victory in December provides some light at the end of the tunnel
China: Aggressive monetary policy easing is needed, but this is not possible in the current environment of a possible 'trade deal' and soaring food price inflation
China: Swine fever propels consumer price inflation to the highest level since 2012. Producer prices move deeper into the deflation zone
8. November 2019
USA: Consumer confidence is barely changed in November at an elevated level. The unanswered question is whether there is a Sino-US deal or not?
Germany: September trade statistics show signs of stabilisation, but no signs yet of an upcoming rebound
China: October report shows a more benign decline in foreign trade, but imports from the United States hit the lowest level since 2012
7. November 2019
Germany: Manufacturing output plunges at the fastest rate since October 2012. More weakness to come, according to IFO
A 'harmonious' Sino-US relationship? Sustainable? If so, who benefits?
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey - Manufacturing and service sentiment plunges in November - Bank of Japan ponders new monetary measures
6. November 2019
Spain: The economy is losing momentum. Industrial output is forecast to contract in the first half of 2020
Germany: Non-Euro-zone orders boost industrial orders as Economic Council lowers the 2020 forecast to below 1%
5. November 2019
USA: Service ISM index bounces back propelled by improving news flow. Nonetheless, the growth outlook remains weak, according to the combined surveys
USA: The trade deficit falls at the same time as manufacturers assess inventories to be too high. The deficit with the EU hit a new all-time high
China: The domestic economy is much weaker than reflected by 'upbeat sentiment' in the financial market. Beijing is 'cornered' by soaring pork prices
4. November 2019
USA: Factory orders decline again in September. More to come in the coming months, but the Federal Reserve managing to steepen the yield curve gives rise for some short-term optimism
Germany: Angela Merkel and her successor, AKK, are under siege within the CDU. The coalition government in Berlin is at risk
Switzerland: Consumer confidence plunges to the lowest level since 2009 as workers do not benefit from the recovery but feel the pain from the downturn
Unwind short-European-stock-market recommendation
1. November 2019
USA: A meagre rebound in manufacturing sentiment is a disappointment considering that the trade conflict has been 'solved'
USA: Robust labour market report is a function of growth in the past three months. The best forward-looking employment indicators herald weakness in the first half of 2020
Japan: The unemployment rate increases and the leading employment indicator deteriorates again in September
31. October 2019
Euro-zone: The economy is headed towards shallow growth. ECB President Lagarde accuses Germany and the Netherlands of sitting on their hands
China: PMI surveys support anecdotal evidence of a weak economy, as companies and households are aware of economic headwinds beyond a 'fantastic' trade deal with the USA
30. October 2019
USA: Private consumption fuels, as usual, economic growth in the third quarter. The best leading indicators herald significantly weaker growth
Euro-zone: Sentiment deteriorates across the board, but 'recession' is still not part of the equation, according to the survey
Italy's Matteo Salvini patiently waits for disillusioned voters to come to him. The strategy could prove highly successful in 2020
France: Q3 GDP report shows moderate growth sponsored by government spending. No signs of 'recession' but Paris has no fiscal ammo left
29. October 2019
USA: 'Lagging' consumer sentiment remains at an elevated level, but combined ISM indexes herald employment contraction in Q1
Spain: Consumer spending remains robust and sentiment remains high, although the country is heading for another national election. Far-right Vox Party is expected to see a sharp increase in support
France: Consumer confidence stays at an elevated level. Nonetheless, Paris and the rest of Europe are headed towards a long period of subdued growth
28. October 2019
Germany: Thuringia state election is yet another defeat to Chancellor Merkel. The far-left and far-right gain strongly
USA: Budget deficit soars as the White House's economic plan derails. Defence spending jumps
25. October 2019
Germany: IFO survey did not show further weakness, but the economy remains in the contraction zone
24. October 2019
USA: New home sales report disappoints in September, but still no signs of recession
USA: Durable goods orders report shows no signs yet of a decisive turnaround in corporate spending
Turkey: Russia and President Trump make leeway for a substantial rate cut. More to come as Moscow and Beijing provide Ankara with a life jacket
South Korea: Private investments put a drag on Q3 growth. Fiscal expansion and more rate cuts in the pipeline
23. October 2019
France: The repercussion of Germany's economic weakness is slowly impacting the rest of Europe. French manufacturing sentiment drops to the lowest level since March 2015
By Invitation: China's Corporate Social Credit System - Level Playing Field or Forced Digital Hand?
22. October 2019
USA: The Federal Reserve continues to sponsor the housing market. Existing home prices rose at the fastest rate since January 2018
Britain: CBI Industrial Trends survey predicts an 'unavoidable' recession 
21. October 2019
Taiwanese export orders and South Korean October trade data show no signs yet of an upcoming rebound
China: House price inflation continues to slow. Beijing still sits on its hands - but for how long?
Podcast interview with Steffen Jensen, Danish TV2's Middle East correspondent, about yet another crisis in Syria, European hypocrisy, Africa, and the risk of a new migrant crisis
18. October 2019
China: Growth hits the lowest level since 1992 as reluctant policymakers consider new measures. Aggressive money-printing is not possible as long as the trade negotiations are 'successful'
17. October 2019
USA: Industrial production contracted in September. The downturn in the manufacturing sector will accelerate in the coming months, according to the ISM survey
USA - Philadelphia Fed survey: A decline in the headline index disguises strong underlying details
Britain: Retail sales are holding up well considering strong political headwinds, but the economy is losing momentum. Prime Minister Johnson cannot afford to show weakness in the Brexit negotiations
16. October 2019
USA: Retail sales report disappoints in September, but private consumption will still make a robust contribution to Q3 GDP growth
South Korea: The Bank of Korea cuts policy rates as the economy faces deflation
China: Credit expansion is far too weak to support the economy. Yet another failed trade deal will fundamentally change the situation
15. October 2019
Germany: ZEW survey continues to show gloomy investor sentiment. Europe faces significant geopolitical risks
USA: Manufacturing Empire State survey shows signs of stabilising sentiment at a low level. The White House needs a new 'external enemy': Europe
China: Producer prices move deeper into the 'deflation zone'. Consumer price inflation boosted by a 69.3% increase in pork prices
14. October 2019
Euro-zone: Industrial output contracts but consumers are still supporting the economy. Nonetheless, the union faces several headwinds
Yet another disappointing China-USA trade deal, buying time for Beijing: The NBA case shows the flip side of having a significant exposure to China. The next challenge: the corporate social credit system
China: September trade report shows no signs of a rebound in global trade. Beijing could soon turn more hawkish towards Washington
11. October 2019
USA: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index jumps back in line with the Conference Board consumer confidence index
India: Manufacturing output declines at the fastest rate since February 2013
Disruptive forces: The European Union faces the risk of a new migration wave as the conditions for the 'perfect storm' are building in the Middle East and North Africa
10. October 2019
Britain: Manufacturing output drops in August. The best leading indicators herald the steepest decline in output since 2009 in the coming months
Germany: Exports fell sharply in August. No signs of improvement as auto exporters face global cyclical headwinds and technology disruption
A short note on the China-USA trade negotiations: President Xi Jinping too close to the 'losing-face zone' poses a significant risk to the financial market
Japan: Machinery orders fall sharply as the aftermath of 'Abenomics' emerges. Also, a short note on the China-USA trade negotiations
9. October 2019
Australia: Consumer sentiment plunges to the lowest level since 2015
USA: Federal Reserve officially 'opts' again for balance sheet expansion even though this already started two months ago
8. October 2019
USA: Small business sentiment declines but remains at an elevated level. The job market tightens
A short note: The highly symbolic NBA-Beijing conflict shows the corporate risks attached to the Chinese market. These risks are not priced into the stock market
EU, Rome and Berlin face the risk of a new migration wave as the conditions for the 'perfect storm' are building in the Middle East and North Africa
Germany: Industrial output surprises to the upside in August, but the outlook remains grim. Berlin faces the risk of a new migration wave
Japan: The headline index in the Economy Watcher survey jumps while the 'future outlook index' plunges
7. October 2019
Japan downgrades growth forecast to 'worsening', which is usually associated with 'recession'
Germany: Domestic demand pulls industrial orders down in August. IFO survey heralds more weakness to come
4. October 2019
USA: The economy shows robust job growth but the forward-looking indicators herald significantly lower growth
When 'cutting corners' is no longer an efficient policy option
3. October 2019
USA: The service sector is headed in the same direction as the manufacturing sector. The Federal Reserve will turn significantly more dovish
Turkey: Another sharp decline in inflation boosts the likelihood of more rate cuts. President Erdogan faces increasing dissent within the AKP
Sweden: A shockingly weak service survey should give rise to more concern across Europe as most countries are now left without ammo
2. October 2019
USA: ADP Employment Report shows weak job creation in the manufacturing sector. Tomorrow's ISM survey will show whether this is spreading to the service sector
The risk of Chinese intervention in Hong Kong will increase sharply shortly after the anniversary celebrations in Beijing