Articles

Germany: Military equipment demand helps boost industrial orders, but the outlook remains grim. AfD [21%] could soon become the largest party. Is a CDU-CSU-AfD coalition possible in the future?

Eurozone: Disinflation continues, but the ECB focuses on the labour market. Germany needs 1.5 million immigrants per year to maintain the size of the workforce, according to 'wise men'

China's 'solution' to the economic challenges is more ideology and nationalism - in sharp contrast to the financial crisis in 2008

USA: ISM survey shows no signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector. Disinflation intensifies

France: Paris is running out of fiscal ammo as the budget deficit moves closer to the pandemic level

The stock market: Artificial Intelligence expectations and falling headline inflation versus inverted yield curves

There will be no updates on June 29-30

France: Insee consumer survey shows a tighter labour market in the coming months despite slower growth. Wages are rising

Eurozone: ECB's Monetary Development Report shows further monetary weakness and slowing loan demand

Germany: An unpredictable future and political chaos in Berlin cause consumer sentiment to drop despite short-term tailwinds

USA: The yield curve says recession, but the economy has not 'surrendered' yet. New home sales skyrocket in May - and consumer confidence bounces back

A historically right-wing shift in Germany and the rest of the EU will have consequences in all areas

IFO survey: Germany faces a double-dip recession as geopolitics pulls the carpet under the economy. AfD sees more gain in the latest opinion poll. Also, a short note on Russia

Britain: The renewed surge in consumer confidence indicates, to no small extent, that fiscal and monetary policymakers are not in control of the inflation situation

Japan: Core inflation hits the highest since the early 1980s - but BOJ does not believe inflation has gained a firm foothold

France: Insee survey shows weak growth. The labour shortage problem remains the same as one year ago. Higher ECB policy rates for longer

The Bank of England is slowly learning the lesson: More tightening is the only option in an economy running out of workers

China's changing social landscape requires younger leadership better in touch with the people

Germany: Falling factory gates inflation is not a surprise. The ECB will stay the course of bringing policy rates and bond yields back to the 'old normal'

USA-China rivalry: 'Two steps backwards, one step forward - followed by another two steps backwards'

Japan: The central bank stays the course as if nothing has happened, triggering more yen weakness

USA: UoM survey shows households benefiting from lower inflation and higher wages. Are there tentative signs of a new growth leg in Q4?

Eurozone: According to the ECB, wage pressure remains far too high for comfort. It will become worse in 2024 - with or without Artificial Intelligence

China: The economy has a significant growth problem - but the biggest problem is a stubborn political leadership

USA: Factory gate inflation slows, but the Federal Reserve will stay the course until 2% has been reached

Germany: Wholesale inflation indicates a sharp decline in headline inflation in H2, but the labour market tells a different story

USA: NFIB small business survey shows significant demand-side impact from monetary policy - but the labour market remains very tight and price pressure persists

The Chinese seek solutions from a clueless centre: 'Ten basis points interest rate cut'! Imbalances created in a semi-capitalist system now need to be solved in a Marxist state-capitalist system

Britain: Zero growth and a buoyant labour market say everything about the problems facing Europe

Eurozone: Why today is different from 2008 and the 1970s. You ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to demographic headwinds

China: The May inflation statistics indicate a very weak domestic demand side. The provinces seek solutions from a pressured leadership at the centre, but it has no clear answers

Podcast: What does 'hundred years of humiliation of China' mean for Beijing and the rest of the world today? More than you think [language: Danish]

The Eurozone recorded a mild recession in Q1, but bond yields are still headed higher despite lower growth in the coming years

China: The economy sees pressure from 'containment measures' and monetary tightening in the West. 'Self-reliance and a strong military' is Beijing's answer

The lessons from Australia: Monetary normalisation is here to stay for an extended period despite declining inflation

Germany: The economy's fragile 'reconstruction' has just started, but the coalition government in Berlin is already in big trouble

USA: ISM service survey shows falling growth, lower inflation and employment contraction

Turkey needs to do the opposite of Erdoganomics, now and not tomorrow. The unavoidable outcome will be a deep recession

USA: The labour market remains buoyant despite slow growth. The Federal Reserve will continue on a path of monetary tightening

USA: ISM manufacturing survey shows no signs of an upcoming recovery. The price index drops sharply

German workers lost within 18 months what they had gained since 2010. Now, they want compensation

Germany: The inflation report continues to benefit from a mild winter. Is there too much self-complacency in a more dangerous world?

China is at a crossroads: Western corporate leaders with significant interests in China have many good reasons to be concerned about the future

USA: Consumer survey shows tentative signs of weakness in the labour market but still elevated inflation expectations

Eurozone: A weak EU survey and ECB Monetary Development Report will boost market expectations of a more dovish ECB

Sweden: The lack of credibility in the previous decades hangs over the Swedish krona like a dark cloud

USA: Inflation expectations will not go away in the current tight labour market environment

A short note on the US debt limit crisis: One cannot ignore the fact that the Republicans have a valid concern that the United States needs to address now

France: The economy will soon come to a standstill

Germany: IFO survey confirms the Eurozone struggle is far from over. It has only just begun

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