Articles

By Invitation: China's new Parliament focuses on economic recovery, security, and confrontation with the US

A short note on the Iran-Saudi deal, yuan internationalisation, SVP, federal debt refinancing, CHIPS, IRA, banking crisis and North Korea

USA: Fiscal balances deteriorate as the Federal Reserve creates headwinds - and will continue to do so. Washington will soon have to raise defence spending markedly

USA: January labour market report was not a 'statistical error' - and employment growth continued in February. No signs of labour market weakness in the coming months

China: Monetary statistics still show no signs of a sustainable and self-propelled economic recovery. Does Xi Jinping care? Maybe!

'Virtual Company visit' - Albatros: Adventure tourism in China - and what is happening in China. Register Now - 'First come, first served'

China: Falling inflation shows a weak and vulnerable recovery. The 'solidarity dilemma' facing Europe

The Eurozone is facing the same tight liquidity situation as the US economy - but the ECB faces bigger problems

USA: The liquidity situation is now contracting at the fastest rate since the 'Volcker era' - and the labour market might still show strength for a little longer

Germany: Industrial orders continue to bounce back. The difference between the financial crisis and today is the demographic headwind

A disappointing trade report and the Two-Sessions NPC meeting underscore that China faces significant headwinds

China's Two-Sessions Meeting: 'Moderate' growth forecast of only 5% in 2023 despite the reopening process. Why? Beijing plans to use more money on geopolitical threats - to the disadvantage of private consumption

USA: The service sector is becoming the economy's main inflation driver. This means more work for the Federal Reserve, although inflation pressure declined in today's survey

Eurozone: Factory gates headline prices decline in January, but core prices increase. The new reality will create price volatility in the future

Japan: Tokyo price subsidies do not disguise increasing inflationary pressures. The share of households 'seeing inflation higher than 5%' skyrockets

Eurozone: Core inflation gains momentum in February as the ECB faces a larger-than-expected and structural inflation problem

Revisiting the 'monetary normalisation case': European real bond yields are still low based on ten-year inflation expectations

USA: ISM manufacturing survey shows more contraction and higher inflation pressure

Germany: Headline price pressure fails to decline before the next inflation leg emerges. More tightening for longer will continue the normalisation process in the bond market

China: A sharp rebound in the official PMI indexes creates the foundation for higher commodity prices - and will contribute to a new global inflation leg in H2

USA: The Conference Board consumer survey shows falling inflation expectations. The share of households 'seeing plentiful of jobs' jumped in February

Eurozone: The ECB will be forced to tighten more for longer as the monetary union faces structural inflation problems

Eurozone: A tight labour market makes households 'upbeat' - or 'less downbeat'. Stronger wage increases?

USA: New home sales, tight labour market and sticky inflation will force policy rates higher for longer - and trigger a recession

Germany: Falling energy prices fail to boost spending plans as households see Berlin's foreign policy strategy in the last two decades collapse

Sweden: The economy showed only a weak rebound in sentiment in February. Service sector inflation expectations hit a new all-time high, according to NIER

Japan: Inflation increases to the highest since 1981. Toyota raises wages at the fastest pace in 26 years

Germany: IFO survey shows an improving 'outlook' - or 'less downbeat' future. But 'China' could turn into Berlin's next nightmare

France: Insee business sentiment survey shows steady growth - but is Europe prepared for what comes after 'Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow'?

Germany: ZEW survey continues to see improvement in investor sentiment - but the 'China arm' is now at risk

Eurozone consumer confidence recovers at a painfully slow pace as geopolitical tensions increase. The Munich Security Conference was the last straw

Sweden: Core inflation continues to increase. Geopolitics will create a new leg in commodity price inflation. The Munich Security Conference underscores how bad the situation is 

France: No signs that inflation will peak anytime soon

Germany: Factory gates inflation will decline more slowly than market expectations. The next inflation leg will come from the 'demographic hurricane'

USA: Higher-than-expected factory gates inflation and a steep decline in manufacturing sentiment are a bad cocktail

China: House prices stabilised in January, but the underlying economic trend shows an 'economic mess' without reforms to unwind imbalances

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