Articles

Germany: Factory gate deflation will not change the ECB's monetary stance - even as Beijing's stimulus measures undershoot expectations

How will China's economic crisis impact inflation in the West?

USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey shows the challenges facing the Federal Reserve - and its task is far from over

China's housing market shows no signs of relief. The 'core leader' can forget all about military ambitions without a dynamic and strong economy

Britain: In the midst of a demographic hurricane, inflation will be a recurring issue all over Europe

The point of no return: Russia and China intensify military cooperation. European politicians, companies, and investors are in the midst of a dangerous geopolitical paradigm shift

A paralysed Beijing reacts reluctantly to economic headwinds because there is a growing fear of more than just a cyclical problem. The answer is more 'Xinomics'

China's bank lending statistics are yet another blow to Xi Jinping's leadership. There is not much room for many more policy mistakes

USA: The easy part of 'controlling inflation' will soon be over. The ingredients to create a new inflation leg are present and gaining momentum

Britain: The RICS housing survey shows the complex challenges facing central banks. House prices plunge, and rents increase

China: 'De-risking' is just another word for 'decoupling' invented in Europe to avoid even more anger in Beijing'. Xi Jinping's next U-turn around the corner?

Central Banks on a tightrope: Why lowering their guard is not an option in an environment of aggressive fiscal spending and demographic headwinds

USA: The NFIB small business sentiment survey shows tentative signs of bouncing back - but from a low level

China's foreign trade plunges. 'It is the economy, stupid'

US Employment Report in July: The labour shortage problem will persist in 2024. The bond market needs to adjust the yield curve

Germany: Rising industrial orders in June do not change a grim outlook for the economy. The political centre needs to get its act together, but political disarray prevails

France: A looming fiscal crisis in the West finally gets the attention of the financial market, but there will be no 'cutting corners' this time

A short note on why the downgrading of the US credit rating is not an isolated phenomenon but could be a foreboding reality for several EU member states

Beijing sees spies everywhere: Another warning for foreign companies in China?

USA: ISM manufacturing index shows no signs yet of a rebound, but a 'recovery' is just around the corner, supported by the Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act

Eurozone labour market: This time is markedly different although the difference is still ignored by the bond market

Germany's economic overhaul: The monetary consequences of a German 'recovery plan'. Without stimulus, the political centre will disappear

China: Weak PMI signals persist. A reluctant Beijing to unveil a huge economic stimulus plan today - but not the same as in 2008

Eurozone survey: Households' inflation expectations decline. Optimism for the job market persists despite zero economic growth

The Bank of Japan lets the genie out of the bottle by allowing more ten-year bond yield flexibility - adding upward pressure on global bond yields

ECB lifts key interest rates despite clear signs of slower growth. Does this make sense?

The US Federal Reserve lifts policy rates to the highest since 2001. The new minimum policy rate will be significantly higher than in the past

Eurozone: The real test of the ECB has just started. Will policymakers maintain the long-term focus?

USA: More evidence of another growth leg, according to the Conference Board consumer survey

China: New measures to stimulate the economy: A desperate turn or a calculated manoeuvre? Are private entrepreneurs and foreigners willing to bite the hook?

Germany: The IFO survey casts a shadow on the economy. Soon a new party could pull even more votes from the centre - but this time from the far left

Podcast interview with Marlene Wind, Special Advisor for Josep Borrell: The need for a strong and united EU is greater than ever, but is it possible? [language: Danish]

USA: Philadelphia Fed survey underscores the probability of another 'growth' leg. How does this align with an inverted yield curve?

A steep decline in Taiwan's export orders and South Korea's trade figures show a gloomy economy. China's economy needs more than words

France: Insee survey shows no signs of an upcoming recession. The labour market is tight, and the fiscal deficit is on the rise

Britain: Inflation is easing, but Prime Minister Sunak has let the genie out of the bottle

China's looming economic challenges: Will Xi Jinping continue to disregard a significant risk of asset price deflation?

Podcast interview with commodity expert Ole S. Hansen: Europe - Is the energy supply secured for the coming winter?

USA: A strong University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is more evidence of another 'growth leg' coming - in an economy without idle workers

The unusual monetary policy of the Bank of Japan amid global tightening, private consumption and 1989-1990

Germany's complicated relationship with China and Russia in an environment with AfD now at 22% and with 'moral backing' in Beijing

China's declining trade figures are a reflection of mounting challenges. Mexico is now the largest supplier of the United States

USA: Falling inflation will not change the monetary stance of the Federal Reserve, considering a historically tight labour market

A short note on the NATO summit in Vilnius: Geopolitics leave little room for ECB manoeuvring despite falling inflation

Spain: Households feel good, but the voters could move the country significantly to the far right on July 23, as 'Spanish values are at risk'

Britain needs more than just luck to escape the long-term consequences of an irresponsible fiscal and monetary policy since 2008

China's deflationary problem: A consequence of policy choices. 'Young people need not be sent to the countryside to understand the world'

USA: Higher wage inflation and weaker-than-expected employment growth in June - or maybe companies cannot find qualified workers

Central banks and 'robust' house prices: The difference compared to 2008 makes monetary policy far more challenging

US ISM service survey: The Federal Reserve is forced to err on the hawkish side due to a different environment compared to 2008 and the 1970s

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