Articles

Articles — 08 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA April Employment Report: Secular forces will limit the rise in unemployment despite lower growth. Consequence: Elevated policy rates for longer

Articles — 04 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: The financial market interpretation is 'pause' or 'easing', but the press conference shows Powell intends to err on the hawkish side

Articles — 03 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: ISM service survey neither indicates an upcoming recession nor contraction in the labour market

Articles — 03 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

France: Public sector imbalances deteriorate.  The ECB will no longer sponsor fiscal irresponsibility, leading to higher real bond yields

Articles — 03 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Federal Reserve is aware that a premature reversal of monetary policy will have the same catastrophic consequences as in 1980

Articles — 02 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Not an easy task for the ECB: Another weak German retail sales report, more deposits outflow from Eurozone banks and falling 'lending standard'

Articles — 02 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Australia: The RBA's decision to raise policy rates is a reminder to the financial market of a long-term monetary normalisation process

Articles — 01 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: The manufacturing sector still shows economic contraction but not enough to change the course of monetary policy

Articles — 01 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Bank of Japan stays the course despite increasing core inflation. Reindustrialisation and rearmament will make the impact of adverse demographics even worse

Articles — 01 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: Growth momentum slows as the impact of the reopening process fades. Beijing exploits geopolitics to make life even harder for foreign brands on the mainland

Articles — 14 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

No updates from April 17th to April 28th

Articles — 14 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Falling inflation is precisely what central banks and the bond market predicted. But it will be challenging to fulfil investors' next expectations leg in the Eurozone

Articles — 13 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: The March producer price report shows what the ISM survey has predicted for some time. Investors forecast rate cuts, but a policy of 'monetary normalisation' will prevail

Articles — 13 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China's trade report is yet more evidence that Beijing is betting on one of the 'old tools' - exports. Beijing will launch more aggressive infrastructure spending

Articles — 12 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: Falling energy prices pull headline inflation lower. Service price inflation slows but remains far too high

Articles — 12 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma - but its freedom of manoeuvring is limited

Articles — 11 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China turns to the same policies that President Xi Jinping despised in the past. State-sponsored asset managers bail out state banks. Chinese manufacturers move production closer to the United States

Articles — 11 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

'Mission Accomplished' for Beijing: President Macron's catastrophic kowtow in Beijing divides the EU even more, and the transatlantic alliance is now at risk

Articles — 05 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: ISM service survey shows broad-based weakness - and significantly lower inflation pressure

Articles — 05 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The US labour market shows tentative signs of weakness - but this will not change the task of the Federal Reserve because the situation is different from 2008

Articles — 04 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Beijing's efforts to internationalise the yuan are bearing fruit. The United States cannot overestimate the consequences of losing the dollar's status as a reserve currency

Articles — 04 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: German trade report underscores that dependence on China keeps increasing - directly and indirectly

Articles — 03 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: ISM manufacturing PMI index dropped deeper into the contraction zone - and Opec+ throws a spanner into the works

Articles — 03 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey shows a tightening labour market, stronger service sentiment and a weaker manufacturing sector. Still waiting for 'monetary normalisation'

Articles — 31 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: Retail sales in real terms plunge, as workers do not care about falling annual inflation. Workers need falling consumer prices or higher wages

Articles — 31 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

President Xi Jinping is no longer trying to hide where China is headed. History shows that it pays to listen to authoritarian leaders

Articles — 30 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

EU survey shows lacklustre growth, no further improvement in CPI inflation, but falling factory gate price pressure - and a tight labour market

Articles — 30 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: Preliminary reports show a sharp decline in the inflation rate. Nonetheless, the ECB does not base monetary policy on 'base effects'. Policy bias remains hawkish

Articles — 29 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Sweden: A small bounce in business and consumer sentiment, but households' inflation assessment skyrockets to a new all-time high

Articles — 29 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany and France: Consumer surveys underscore the challenges facing the ECB. Wage increase calls are supported by demographic 'tailwind'

Articles — 28 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Bank deposit outflows accelerated in the Eurozone in February. Commercial banks will be forced to raise deposit rates

Articles — 28 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

France: Insee business survey shows lacklustre growth - and sticky prices. ECB says tightening will continue

Articles — 27 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: ECB's Monetary Development shows tightening conditions - but the ECB is expected to stay the course of 'overkilling' the economy

Articles — 27 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: IFO survey significantly reduces the risk of 'recession' - so far

Articles — 24 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Japan: The quality of being 'long the yen' - even without monetary tightening

Articles — 23 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: The banking crisis and Wall Street investors distract the Federal Reserve, but Chairman Powell will stay the course

Articles — 22 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Britain: Inflation will not go away as central banks face a totally different environment than in 2008

Articles — 22 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

A short note on the 'frenemies meeting' in Moscow: Deglobalisation, RMB internationalisation and more geopolitical tensions confirmed

Articles — 21 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

US existing home sales jumped much-faster-than-expected in February - house prices dropped for the first time since 2012

Articles — 21 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The big difference between the '2008 bank run' and today: There is political and public support  to rescue the banking system - but not for bailing out bank shares

Articles — 20 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: Factory gates inflation declines, but the absolute level of producer prices is still 50% higher than in 2019 - and the next inflation leg has already hit the shore

Articles — 17 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Xi Jinping as peacemaker in Europe? Yes, if China benefits

Articles — 17 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: Labour costs jumped in the last quarter of 2022. Q1 will be even stronger as the EU faces a secular labour supply problem

Articles — 17 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China cuts the reserve requirement ratio. The economy needs growth drivers. Xi Jinping could act as a peacemaker in Europe if China benefits. China and USA could benefit

Articles — 16 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: Philadelphia Fed survey continues to show a weak manufacturing sector - but activity in the service sector is far more important

Articles — 16 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

A short note on today's ECB Meeting: Monetary tightening is needed because today is not 2008

Articles — 16 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: House prices 'bounce' back in February - but housing fundamentals are weak

Articles — 15 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: Economic statistics in January-February do not give rise to much optimism

Articles — 14 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: Headline inflation moderates, but the biggest sector of the economy, services, sees the highest inflation rate since 1982

Articles — 14 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: NFIB small business survey shows a tightening labour market

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