Articles

Beijing is 'supposed' to react more forcefully to economic headwinds - but Xi Jinping has a different agenda

USA inflation: The same monetary tightening as in 2004-2006 but with a different outcome due to a fundamentally different environment

Weekly Update - October 12, 2023

USA: Inflationary pressure will rise without a significant increase in unemployment

Beijing plans to launch a 'symbolic growth package' - but households let down again

US NFIB survey: Despite significant monetary tightening, labour shortages are prevailing. Loan availability is declining

A brief summary in English of opinions expressed by Camilla T.N. Sorensen in yesterday's podcast interview about Hama's terror attack in Israel

Israel's 'September 11': The Middle East powder keg could ignite any moment. Hamas terrorist attack will cast global immigration in an even less favourable light

Podcast interview: The Middle East is a powder keg that could explode anytime. Is it really in the interest of the Chinese and Americans? [language: Danish]

An analysis of the future yield curve and bond yields based on three assumptions

Germany at a dangerous crossroads: The window of opportunity for Berlin could close rapidly. Several headwinds are now hitting the economy

A follow-up chart: US corporate debt, higher interest rates and falling corporate net-interest payments

Weekly Update - October 5, 2023

Yield curve steepening: There is no room for political missteps in the bond markets

The Bank of Japan will find it challenging to prevent a steeper sell-off in the long end of the bond market

A bad weekend for the European Union and Ukraine - but unfortunately, not the last. The 'Danish case' does not give cause for optimism among voters

The public sector debt crisis: Not just America's problem, but the West's looming headache

The ECB's task of reining in long-term inflation expectations has only just begun - and this will be painful. The EU risk of becoming 'too French'

Weekly Update - September 28, 2023

Germany: The probability of a huge fiscal stimulus package increases as the 'IFO message' transforms into facts on the ground

Inflation: Why the focus should shift 'permanently' from inflation to real bond yields

Is the EU acting according to its size? Paris-Berlin aims for a 'multi-speed Europe'

US Philadelphia Fed survey underscores a complex environment for the Federal Reserve. Inflation pressure increases, but the headline index declines

France's leading business survey reflects ECB's dilemma: The 'labour shortage problem' will not go away despite slower growth

Weekly Update - September 21, 2023

The Federal Reserve will likely choose 'unchanged' - and 'higher rates for longer'. The monetary normalisation process has been a success despite the usual grumbles

Germany: Bundesbank warns about too slow de-risking from China, as 'deindustrialisation' prevails

Taiwan-China: European investors and companies should prepare for a Chinese 'blockade of Taiwan' shortly after the US election

China's economic data shows a hint of life. The problems remain the same, but investors might expect a different solution than what Xi Jinping has in mind

Podcast interview with Rhodium Group, Washington: Beijing has no fiscal leeway. What does it mean for Xi Jinping's China?

ECB hikes policy rates again, navigating a different reality than 2008

US inflation report: The looming risk of a long-term inflation problem

The risk of a new inflationary leg in the Eurozone and the United States remains significant

Weekly Update - September 13, 2023

Important: Changes on the Insightview website from mid-September

There will be no updates on September 4-8 and 11-12 due to holiday

US employment report: Monetary policy is working - but the task of the Federal Reserve will be challenged by demographics and geopolitics - and politicians who are not lending a helping hand

Revisiting monetary policy: Why central banks prefer to err on the 'hawkish' side

China's economic quagmire: Beijing still shows no convincing signs of comprehensive support for the economy because it cannot and does not necessarily want to

The geopolitical reality is unfolding at the worst possible time. Therefore, the EU needs to show strength on all fronts now and not tomorrow

The EU Commission survey supports the ECB's current hawkish monetary stance despite slowing economic momentum. Households are upbeat about the labour market

Macroeconomic and Political Update Web Presentation

German households are slowly starting to fear the risk of unemployment despite significant wage increases, but the fear is still far from the levels seen in 2008

Eurozone contraction: The ECB needs to clean up after two crises because there was a lack of timely action following the Great Recession

Podcast interview with the President of the EU Chamber in China, Jens Eskelund: Lack of action from the Chinese leadership adds to insecurity [Language: Danish]

Germany: The IFO survey shows signs of the 'Perfect Storm', but the ECB needs to see higher unemployment to end the tightening process

A brief summary of opinions expressed by Jens Eskelund, President of the EU Chamber in China, in today's podcast interview

France: Insee's business survey indicates declining employment expectations - but households do not see a high risk of becoming unemployed

USA: Existing Home Sales report underscores the big difference to 2008. The Federal Reserve has a tough task, as fiscal policymakers need to focus on geopolitical risks 

As expected, Beijing disappoints the financial market due to 'well-meaning' but ill-timed policy intentions. Stubbornness can hit the economy hard

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