Articles

Germany: Falling factory gates inflation is not a surprise. The ECB will stay the course of bringing policy rates and bond yields back to the 'old normal'

USA-China rivalry: 'Two steps backwards, one step forward - followed by another two steps backwards'

USA: UoM survey shows households benefiting from lower inflation and higher wages. Are there tentative signs of a new growth leg in Q4?

Eurozone: According to the ECB, wage pressure remains far too high for comfort. It will become worse in 2024 - with or without Artificial Intelligence

Japan: The central bank stays the course as if nothing has happened, triggering more yen weakness

China: The economy has a significant growth problem - but the biggest problem is a stubborn political leadership

USA: Factory gate inflation slows, but the Federal Reserve will stay the course until 2% has been reached

Germany: Wholesale inflation indicates a sharp decline in headline inflation in H2, but the labour market tells a different story

USA: NFIB small business survey shows significant demand-side impact from monetary policy - but the labour market remains very tight and price pressure persists

The Chinese seek solutions from a clueless centre: 'Ten basis points interest rate cut'! Imbalances created in a semi-capitalist system now need to be solved in a Marxist state-capitalist system

Britain: Zero growth and a buoyant labour market say everything about the problems facing Europe

Eurozone: Why today is different from 2008 and the 1970s. You ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to demographic headwinds

China: The May inflation statistics indicate a very weak domestic demand side. The provinces seek solutions from a pressured leadership at the centre, but it has no clear answers

The Eurozone recorded a mild recession in Q1, but bond yields are still headed higher despite lower growth in the coming years

China: The economy sees pressure from 'containment measures' and monetary tightening in the West. 'Self-reliance and a strong military' is Beijing's answer

The lessons from Australia: Monetary normalisation is here to stay for an extended period despite declining inflation

Germany: The economy's fragile 'reconstruction' has just started, but the coalition government in Berlin is already in big trouble

USA: ISM service survey shows falling growth, lower inflation and employment contraction

Turkey needs to do the opposite of Erdoganomics, now and not tomorrow. The unavoidable outcome will be a deep recession

USA: The labour market remains buoyant despite slow growth. The Federal Reserve will continue on a path of monetary tightening

USA: ISM manufacturing survey shows no signs of an upcoming recovery. The price index drops sharply

German workers lost within 18 months what they had gained since 2010. Now, they want compensation

Germany: The inflation report continues to benefit from a mild winter. Is there too much self-complacency in a more dangerous world?

China is at a crossroads: Western corporate leaders with significant interests in China have many good reasons to be concerned about the future

USA: Consumer survey shows tentative signs of weakness in the labour market but still elevated inflation expectations

Eurozone: A weak EU survey and ECB Monetary Development Report will boost market expectations of a more dovish ECB

Sweden: The lack of credibility in the previous decades hangs over the Swedish krona like a dark cloud

USA: Inflation expectations will not go away in the current tight labour market environment

France: The economy will soon come to a standstill

A short note on the US debt limit crisis: One cannot ignore the fact that the Republicans have a valid concern that the United States needs to address now

Germany: IFO survey confirms the Eurozone struggle is far from over. It has only just begun

British CPI report: This is neither '2008' nor 'the 1970s' - the long-term task of central banks is far more challenging

US new home sales report: No signs of 'economic contraction' will force the Federal Reserve to err on the hawkish side

A short note on the latest geopolitical events:  The course of events has taken control away from politicians around the world

'Virtual China visit' - Steffen Schiottz-Christensen from Chengdu, China. Register Now - 'First come, first served'

Japan: 'Back-sourcing' and increasing wages require significantly higher productivity, corporate spending and inflow of foreign workers

USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows more disinflation and manufacturing contraction. The starting point in the next recovery phase is a tight labour market

Japan: The economy surprises by showing strong growth in the first quarter of 2023, but labour shortages put a lid on the economy

A strong French labour market report is not good news but underscores an EU problem that will become significantly worse in the future

China's economy stumbles, but Beijing has no intentions of supporting households. The main focus is SOEs and defence spending

Eurozone: A mild winter is not enough to support manufacturing activity. Many European manufacturers face an existential crisis without subsidises

Germany: Falling wholesale price statistics indicate CPI inflation close to the 3%-4% range. Nonetheless, 'monetary normalisation' continues

The European Union faces an unprecedented demographic and fiscal hurricane

China: A benign inflation report underscores structural weakness in the economy. Will Beijing bail out distressed provinces?

USA: Annual inflation is slowing, but still a long way to go with a different labour market than in 2008 - and higher 'normalised policy rates'

Italy: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has, so far, been a positive surprise. However, pragmatism will soon be tested as Italy faces unprecedented demographic headwinds

USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey underscores the decisive difference between 2008 and today

USA: CBO report shows soaring interest payment boosting the budget deficit. Investors need to get used to a new normal - the end of central banks sponsoring fiscal expansion

Is Turkey still a democracy? If so, the upcoming election provides hope for the future and a sharp lira appreciation

Germany: Industrial orders and production plunge. Berlin moves to 'Plan B' - subsidised energy price of 6 cents. The slow demolition of the Single Market continues

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