Articles

France: A looming fiscal crisis in the West finally gets the attention of the financial market, but there will be no 'cutting corners' this time

A short note on why the downgrading of the US credit rating is not an isolated phenomenon but could be a foreboding reality for several EU member states

Beijing sees spies everywhere: Another warning for foreign companies in China?

USA: ISM manufacturing index shows no signs yet of a rebound, but a 'recovery' is just around the corner, supported by the Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act

Eurozone labour market: This time is markedly different although the difference is still ignored by the bond market

Germany's economic overhaul: The monetary consequences of a German 'recovery plan'. Without stimulus, the political centre will disappear

China: Weak PMI signals persist. A reluctant Beijing to unveil a huge economic stimulus plan today - but not the same as in 2008

Eurozone survey: Households' inflation expectations decline. Optimism for the job market persists despite zero economic growth

The Bank of Japan lets the genie out of the bottle by allowing more ten-year bond yield flexibility - adding upward pressure on global bond yields

ECB lifts key interest rates despite clear signs of slower growth. Does this make sense?

The US Federal Reserve lifts policy rates to the highest since 2001. The new minimum policy rate will be significantly higher than in the past

Eurozone: The real test of the ECB has just started. Will policymakers maintain the long-term focus?

USA: More evidence of another growth leg, according to the Conference Board consumer survey

China: New measures to stimulate the economy: A desperate turn or a calculated manoeuvre? Are private entrepreneurs and foreigners willing to bite the hook?

Germany: The IFO survey casts a shadow on the economy. Soon a new party could pull even more votes from the centre - but this time from the far left

USA: Philadelphia Fed survey underscores the probability of another 'growth' leg. How does this align with an inverted yield curve?

A steep decline in Taiwan's export orders and South Korea's trade figures show a gloomy economy. China's economy needs more than words

France: Insee survey shows no signs of an upcoming recession. The labour market is tight, and the fiscal deficit is on the rise

Britain: Inflation is easing, but Prime Minister Sunak has let the genie out of the bottle

China's looming economic challenges: Will Xi Jinping continue to disregard a significant risk of asset price deflation?

USA: A strong University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is more evidence of another 'growth leg' coming - in an economy without idle workers

The unusual monetary policy of the Bank of Japan amid global tightening, private consumption and 1989-1990

Germany's complicated relationship with China and Russia in an environment with AfD now at 22% and with 'moral backing' in Beijing

China's declining trade figures are a reflection of mounting challenges. Mexico is now the largest supplier of the United States

USA: Falling inflation will not change the monetary stance of the Federal Reserve, considering a historically tight labour market

A short note on the NATO summit in Vilnius: Geopolitics leave little room for ECB manoeuvring despite falling inflation

Spain: Households feel good, but the voters could move the country significantly to the far right on July 23, as 'Spanish values are at risk'

Britain needs more than just luck to escape the long-term consequences of an irresponsible fiscal and monetary policy since 2008

China's deflationary problem: A consequence of policy choices. 'Young people need not be sent to the countryside to understand the world'

USA: Higher wage inflation and weaker-than-expected employment growth in June - or maybe companies cannot find qualified workers

Central banks and 'robust' house prices: The difference compared to 2008 makes monetary policy far more challenging

US ISM service survey: The Federal Reserve is forced to err on the hawkish side due to a different environment compared to 2008 and the 1970s

Germany: Military equipment demand helps boost industrial orders, but the outlook remains grim. AfD [21%] could soon become the largest party. Is a CDU-CSU-AfD coalition possible in the future?

Eurozone: Disinflation continues, but the ECB focuses on the labour market. Germany needs 1.5 million immigrants per year to maintain the size of the workforce, according to 'wise men'

China's 'solution' to the economic challenges is more ideology and nationalism - in sharp contrast to the financial crisis in 2008

USA: ISM survey shows no signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector. Disinflation intensifies

France: Paris is running out of fiscal ammo as the budget deficit moves closer to the pandemic level

The stock market: Artificial Intelligence expectations and falling headline inflation versus inverted yield curves

France: Insee consumer survey shows a tighter labour market in the coming months despite slower growth. Wages are rising

There will be no updates on June 29-30

Eurozone: ECB's Monetary Development Report shows further monetary weakness and slowing loan demand

Germany: An unpredictable future and political chaos in Berlin cause consumer sentiment to drop despite short-term tailwinds

USA: The yield curve says recession, but the economy has not 'surrendered' yet. New home sales skyrocket in May - and consumer confidence bounces back

A historically right-wing shift in Germany and the rest of the EU will have consequences in all areas

IFO survey: Germany faces a double-dip recession as geopolitics pulls the carpet under the economy. AfD sees more gain in the latest opinion poll. Also, a short note on Russia

Britain: The renewed surge in consumer confidence indicates, to no small extent, that fiscal and monetary policymakers are not in control of the inflation situation

Japan: Core inflation hits the highest since the early 1980s - but BOJ does not believe inflation has gained a firm foothold

France: Insee survey shows weak growth. The labour shortage problem remains the same as one year ago. Higher ECB policy rates for longer

The Bank of England is slowly learning the lesson: More tightening is the only option in an economy running out of workers

China's changing social landscape requires younger leadership better in touch with the people

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