Articles

An analysis of the future yield curve and bond yields based on three assumptions

Germany at a dangerous crossroads: The window of opportunity for Berlin could close rapidly. Several headwinds are now hitting the economy

A follow-up chart: US corporate debt, higher interest rates and falling corporate net-interest payments

Yield curve steepening: There is no room for political missteps in the bond markets

A bad weekend for the European Union and Ukraine - but unfortunately, not the last. The 'Danish case' does not give cause for optimism among voters

The Bank of Japan will find it challenging to prevent a steeper sell-off in the long end of the bond market

The public sector debt crisis: Not just America's problem, but the West's looming headache

The ECB's task of reining in long-term inflation expectations has only just begun - and this will be painful. The EU risk of becoming 'too French'

Germany: The probability of a huge fiscal stimulus package increases as the 'IFO message' transforms into facts on the ground

Inflation: Why the focus should shift 'permanently' from inflation to real bond yields

Is the EU acting according to its size? Paris-Berlin aims for a 'multi-speed Europe'

France's leading business survey reflects ECB's dilemma: The 'labour shortage problem' will not go away despite slower growth

US Philadelphia Fed survey underscores a complex environment for the Federal Reserve. Inflation pressure increases, but the headline index declines

The Federal Reserve will likely choose 'unchanged' - and 'higher rates for longer'. The monetary normalisation process has been a success despite the usual grumbles

Germany: Bundesbank warns about too slow de-risking from China, as 'deindustrialisation' prevails

Taiwan-China: European investors and companies should prepare for a Chinese 'blockade of Taiwan' shortly after the US election

China's economic data shows a hint of life. The problems remain the same, but investors might expect a different solution than what Xi Jinping has in mind

ECB hikes policy rates again, navigating a different reality than 2008

The risk of a new inflationary leg in the Eurozone and the United States remains significant

US inflation report: The looming risk of a long-term inflation problem

There will be no updates on September 4-8 and 11-12 due to holiday

US employment report: Monetary policy is working - but the task of the Federal Reserve will be challenged by demographics and geopolitics - and politicians who are not lending a helping hand

China's economic quagmire: Beijing still shows no convincing signs of comprehensive support for the economy because it cannot and does not necessarily want to

Revisiting monetary policy: Why central banks prefer to err on the 'hawkish' side

The geopolitical reality is unfolding at the worst possible time. Therefore, the EU needs to show strength on all fronts now and not tomorrow

The EU Commission survey supports the ECB's current hawkish monetary stance despite slowing economic momentum. Households are upbeat about the labour market

German households are slowly starting to fear the risk of unemployment despite significant wage increases, but the fear is still far from the levels seen in 2008

Macroeconomic and Political Update Web Presentation

Eurozone contraction: The ECB needs to clean up after two crises because there was a lack of timely action following the Great Recession

A brief summary of opinions expressed by Jens Eskelund, President of the EU Chamber in China, in today's podcast interview

Germany: The IFO survey shows signs of the 'Perfect Storm', but the ECB needs to see higher unemployment to end the tightening process

France: Insee's business survey indicates declining employment expectations - but households do not see a high risk of becoming unemployed

USA: Existing Home Sales report underscores the big difference to 2008. The Federal Reserve has a tough task, as fiscal policymakers need to focus on geopolitical risks 

As expected, Beijing disappoints the financial market due to 'well-meaning' but ill-timed policy intentions. Stubbornness can hit the economy hard

Germany: Factory gate deflation will not change the ECB's monetary stance - even as Beijing's stimulus measures undershoot expectations

How will China's economic crisis impact inflation in the West?

USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey shows the challenges facing the Federal Reserve - and its task is far from over

Britain: In the midst of a demographic hurricane, inflation will be a recurring issue all over Europe

China's housing market shows no signs of relief. The 'core leader' can forget all about military ambitions without a dynamic and strong economy

A paralysed Beijing reacts reluctantly to economic headwinds because there is a growing fear of more than just a cyclical problem. The answer is more 'Xinomics'

The point of no return: Russia and China intensify military cooperation. European politicians, companies, and investors are in the midst of a dangerous geopolitical paradigm shift

China's bank lending statistics are yet another blow to Xi Jinping's leadership. There is not much room for many more policy mistakes

Britain: The RICS housing survey shows the complex challenges facing central banks. House prices plunge, and rents increase

USA: The easy part of 'controlling inflation' will soon be over. The ingredients to create a new inflation leg are present and gaining momentum

Central Banks on a tightrope: Why lowering their guard is not an option in an environment of aggressive fiscal spending and demographic headwinds

China: 'De-risking' is just another word for 'decoupling' invented in Europe to avoid even more anger in Beijing'. Xi Jinping's next U-turn around the corner?

China's foreign trade plunges. 'It is the economy, stupid'

USA: The NFIB small business sentiment survey shows tentative signs of bouncing back - but from a low level

Germany: Rising industrial orders in June do not change a grim outlook for the economy. The political centre needs to get its act together, but political disarray prevails

US Employment Report in July: The labour shortage problem will persist in 2024. The bond market needs to adjust the yield curve

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