Articles

The Federal Reserve projects what the financial market already projected before the FOMC meeting - but central banks' freedom of maneuvering is no longer the same as before

What If? - including audio-video

USA: Service price inflation is falling far too slowly. NFIB survey indicates a sharp re-acceleration in wage pressure in the first half of 2024

Chinese disinflation would have been worse without Beijing kicking the can down the road. Turkey targets Chinese EVs

A short note on Eurozone unit labour costs statistics: ECB needs positive productivity growth or significantly higher unemployment

Why European politicians' perception and the 'closing window of opportunity' matter for the bond market in 2024

USA: Unemployment will increase in 2024 but at a painfully slower pace than in the past

China's trade balance report highlights the extent to which Beijing needs the EU - and vice versa

Faltering support for Ukraine will be costly for EU countries in 2024 and beyond. Poland reiterates the warning from the German Council on Foreign Relations

USA: ISM service survey shows no signs of recession. The Federal Reserve needs higher unemployment or significantly lower inflation to cut policy rates

A short note on the bond market rally

US ISM survey: The Federal Reserve will start a slow process of policy rate cuts when unemployment increases 'more significantly'

A weak Chinese economy makes the outcome of the upcoming EU-China summit even more interesting

Eurozone inflation: The low-hanging fruits are gone. Now, energy prices (just) need to remain stable, and unemployment needs to rise

EU Commission survey continues to show a very tight Eurozone labour market - but falling inflation expectations

Eurozone: The French Insee consumer survey reflects the complexity of the Eurozone's many headwinds. AfD and BSW hit a combined 31% in today's German opinion poll

China's capital balance data underscore the extent of foreign companies' mistrust in Beijing, regardless of recent attempts of moderation

Chaos in Berlin and the Dutch election do not bode well for the EU-China summit. The air is being let out of von der Leyen's balloon

The EU's 'political centre' has only one shot left. What does a strong shift to the right mean for the financial market?

Eurozone: Falling inflation does not change the storyboard. Factory gate prices are still up by 40% since 2019 - and de-risking is coming

EU Commission: De-risking from China or face trouble

The Xi-Biden meeting is paramount, but less so than the interpretation of 'true intentions' in Washington and Beijing

What keeps the US economy going - and what does it mean for 2024? Unfortunately, even more concerns

Different forecasts for the Eurozone are based on fundamentally different geopolitical scenarios

De-risking is deflationary in China and inflationary in the EU, but Brussels maintains a hawkish stance towards Beijing

The two pillars of the Insightview storyboard remain valid for the Eurozone - Headwinds from geopolitics and demographics

The European Union faces an 'auto tsunami' from China. Will Brussels act? Yes, but not due to corporate interests in Europe

What is the impact of 'high policy rates for longer' when investors believe central banks are wrong?

Beijing considers a 'more friendly' approach to the private sector - forced by economic reality. But for how long? India raises the level of trade tensions with Beijing

The Federal Reserve needs a significant increase in unemployment to change policy. The federal debt maturity structure does not look good

No Updates on Oct. 30-31 - Business Trip

A short note on the rising risk of a trade war between the EU and China

French economic statistics show why the European economy is amidst an entirely different situation than in the past

Sweden's NIER survey reflects what the ECB is facing - but also raises questions about monetary policymakers' credibility

Germany's road to recovery will be bumpy but necessary. Soon, Brussels is expected to provide 'help'

Germany: Consumer sentiment declines. The political centre is 'under siege' by AfD, and now a new party on the far-left

China's excess capacity challenge: Has the 'mother of all global dumping' just started?

A brief summary in English of opinions expressed by Klaus Anker Petersen in yesterday's podcast interview about China

The growing concerns about China - and why the European Union finally sees the writing on the wall

Are US Treasuries a screaming buy?

Deciphering China's economic growth and Xi Jinping's vision. Beijing has not demonstrated maturity in its new role as a global superpower

Strengthening Europe's defence - bypassing the EU's bureaucratic interference

Navigating turbulent times: The impact on consumer sentiment and monetary policy

Beijing is 'supposed' to react more forcefully to economic headwinds - but Xi Jinping has a different agenda

USA inflation: The same monetary tightening as in 2004-2006 but with a different outcome due to a fundamentally different environment

Beijing plans to launch a 'symbolic growth package' - but households let down again

USA: Inflationary pressure will rise without a significant increase in unemployment

A brief summary in English of opinions expressed by Camilla T.N. Sorensen in yesterday's podcast interview about Hama's terror attack in Israel

US NFIB survey: Despite significant monetary tightening, labour shortages are prevailing. Loan availability is declining

Israel's 'September 11': The Middle East powder keg could ignite any moment. Hamas terrorist attack will cast global immigration in an even less favourable light

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