Articles

The ECB is set to disappoint the bond market beyond a 'pseudo-policy-rate cut' - unless unemployment increases significantly

German statistics paint a dire picture. The positive aspect is that most voters support dramatic changes - including massive rearmament

The EU Commission survey still highlights why the ECB does not have much room to manoeuvre

There is much talk about the EU's window of opportunity - but one should focus on Russia's 'best choice'. Poland talks about nuclear option

The Eurozone shows marginal signs of improvement. EU leaders face unpopular decisions - a discussion started by the Danish Prime Minister

Chinese house prices continue to fall. How does one filter 'misinformation'?

IFO survey indicates a deeper German recession - and with it comes an inevitable trade war with China

The economic situation in Germany is now so bad that it's time to say goodbye to nostalgia. 'Goodbye SchuldenBremse'

The economic downturn in China's property market is too severe to pursue ideological politics at the moment

A short follow-up to the Eurozone wage statistics for Q4

The primary task of the ECB is to create space for the defence industry. The consequence is lower private consumption - and higher real bond yields

The EU Commission is now paving the way for massive military rearmament. The Weimar Triangle opens up for a European military alliance with Britain without any 'stumbling blocks'

What drives the Japanese stock market? There are many factors, but the primary explanation remains the same

The US labour market will continue to bump against the ceiling in 2024

Western Europe is heading towards a semi-war economy now that politicians understand the gravity of the geopolitical situation. Tight labour markets

The current level of US unemployment and fiscal policy 'out of control' do not support a policy of rate cuts

China's monetary statistics show no signs of an accelerating economy. 'Japanificantion' continues unabatedly

USA: Two-thirds of the US federal deficit is now interest payments. The next administration will be forced to act forcefully to the disadvantage of the EU

The industrial downturn continues in Germany. Policy change in Berlin is needed. ECB's room of maneuvring is limited

A brief note on the Chinese bazooka, which does not exist. Xi Jinping's credibility is at stake

Turkey must now pay the price for Erdogan's failed economic policy. The cleanup is left to others

Could Germany call a national election in 2024? Yes, the coalition government in Berlin is no longer working

The US ISM survey confirms Friday's strong labour market report and increases the likelihood of a new inflation leg

What to expect from the US labour market in a world facing the worst geopolitical and demographic challenges since the Second World War

Eurozone: To keep inflation down requires a completely different political approach. There is no room for political fumbling

Beijing now has two options

The Eurozone economy is weak - but not enough to pave the way for significant policy rate cuts

ECB's Lagarde talks about policy rate cuts - but the room of maneuvring is limited

Beijing's dilemma: More of the same that created the current problems or real economic reforms 'without Chinese characteristics'?

Strikes and Berlin in disarray are reflected in yet another weak IFO survey, indicating a deeper recession in 2024

There will not be any updates on January 23 and 24 due to a business trip

USA: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey once again shows the difference between today and 2008-2010

Social and political chaos in Germany should not be a surprise. More is in the pipeline

Is artificial intelligence a panacea for the EU? Yes, to a large extent, provided politicians do not create obstacles

PBOC appears to be boosting liquidity - but it is not being utilised

EU and Britain: Artificial Intelligence provides an excellent possibility to reduce headwinds from geopolitics and demographics if the politicians do not create obstacles

'Virtual China visit' - January 29 or 31 - Michael R. Chang, GM Yara Marine Technologies, Shanghai: Is China changing in the wrong direction? Register Now - 'First come, first served'

China's problems could soon belong to the EU unless Brussels acts. Why doesn't Beijing protect the main route to Europe?

This time, Donald Trump will do it the 'right' way. What does that mean?

The consequences of the erosion of free speech and information flow in China

Eurozone: Low growth no longer necessarily means higher unemployment. This will have significant consequences for monetary policy

A short note about an unusually sharp decline in the employment index in the ISM service survey

The EU business and consumer survey underscores why the ECB faces a different environment than in 2008-2010

Eurozone: Demographic changes mitigate the economic downturn but will create huge fundamental problems in the next phase

USA: The labour market report does not give the Federal Reserve reason to change its strategy - but should instead lead the bond market to temper its optimism

Germany: More consequences loom after decades of misguided foreign and industrial policy. Many companies behave as though we are still in a sweet spot. Next problem - Iran

The new geopolitical reality: Massive military build-up, renewed pressure on tight labour markets, higher fiscal deficits - and China forced to go out 'on thin ice'

German IFO survey indicates a deeper recession. New elections becoming more likely. CDU-CSU is larger than the current coalition combined - poll

There will be no updates from December 20 to January 1, 2024, due to the holiday period

Chinese economic statistics show no signs of relief, as Beijing seems bewildered about what to do. Second-hand house prices drop at the fastest annual rate since 2015

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