Articles

China: Everything points towards an 'asset price recession' unless stubbornness is replaced by realism in Beijing

Weekly Update - August 15, 2024

The Federal Reserve's path of policy rate cuts and the implications for the bond market

A steepening US yield curve 'assumes' the Federal Reserve will do the 'right thing.' A robust NFIB survey shows why this will not be a classic economic slowdown

State elections in Germany: Sahra Wagenknecht benefits from the 'bookkeeper approach' in Berlin

The impact of AI on the US economy: Is divergence between SP500 market cap and nominal GDP too high?

Weekly Update - August 8, 2024

The US Federal Reserve is likely more nervous than investors due to a significant decline in TIPS inflation expectations

Navigating the market bubble without losing sight of the big picture: ISM service survey brings relief to a nervous stock market

The blinders are off. A different aftermath due to a markedly different environment than in the past

The Bank of Japan, yen repatriation, US 'recession' and 'growth panic': Does 'what did not happen earlier' unfold now? What are the consequences?

A Federal Reserve policy rate cut of 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points cannot be ruled out following a surprisingly weak ISM survey

China's economy: Who speaks up if things go in the wrong direction?

Weekly Update - August 1, 2024

Eurozone: The factors driving service inflation will not disappear in the next many years

Berlin 'saving itself to death' has now become the Eurozone's biggest problem

The US Federal Reserve and the ECB will lower policy rates, but the decision could suddenly appear in a different light

US Q2 growth report, a steepening yield curve and geopolitics make the coming quarters a delicate balancing act for the Federal Reserve

The economic undercurrent gains the upper hand in the Eurozone with huge political consequences to come

Weekly Update - July 25, 2024

Is the financial market wearing blinders?

The Third Plenum meeting reinforces Xi Jinping's direction - more of the same that triggered the trade conflicts

Summary of the 'Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Deepening Reform and Advancing Chinese Modernisation'

A short note on strong regional Philadelphia Fed surveys in the United States

Weather Forecast: 'Hurricane-like Winds with Shifting Directions and the Formation of New Inflation Clouds in the Western Region. Unstable Fronts with Isolationist Trump-Vance Leadership'

Weekly Update - July 18, 2024

The next Trump administration could push the EU into a dangerous security vacuum

The political impact of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump before and after the election

China needs a 'controlled' recession, but Beijing has failed to create the institutionalised framework. Beijing has a different priority list

Does falling US inflation also mean significantly lower bond yields?

Washington Meeting: Geopolitical tensions are escalating with significant economic consequences

Weekly Update - July 11, 2024

The path of interest rates in the US - and the impact on the Eurozone bond market

Misunderstood fiscal discipline in Berlin: Germany's path to instability

French Election: The operation succeeded - but it caused the pendulum to swing to the left

Due to vacation, there will be no updates on July 1-5

China's window of opportunity: A second and last chance to save the relationship with the European Union?

Germany stands out in the June EU business and consumer survey: One threat from Beijing and Olaf Scholz panics

Weekly Update - June 27, 2024

National Rally is poised for a major electoral victory. ECB will bear part of the credit risk for the election promises. What are the consequences of 'French nukes are for France'?

Germany needs - and will be forced to accept - lenient fiscal rules to make Germany and the EU survive

'Recovery' in the US manufacturing sector does not gain traction - but inflationary pressures accelerate. Trump and the risk of recession

Germany's competitiveness faces significant erosion without action

Weekly Update - June 20, 2024

The 'centre holds,' but the Eurozone faces unprecedented economic problems from weak productivity and soaring labour costs

China is in the midst of a balance sheet 'recession': Existing house prices drop at the fastest rate since 2011

Political chaos in France: Marine Le Pen knows the path to power through the front door at the centre, but what happens when she stands in the corridor of power?

Washington will be forced to address a spiralling federal debt - otherwise, the bond market will react accordingly

Weekly Update - June 13, 2024

The game is over for the coalition in Berlin. Germany could soon be forced to call an early election - tomorrow might be too late

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