Articles

USA: Demographics, 'significant de-risking', and military build-up will amplify inflationary pressures in the coming quarters and years

'Xi Jinping's China' is becoming more visible on the horizon in the West. This gives rise to concern in the EU

Due to Ascension Day, there will be no update on May 9 and May 10

Germany's many obstacles: Fifth-column activities, Scholz and Christian Lindner stand in the way of voters who support change

The EU faces crucial days and months. The first test is the Xi Jinping visit. The next test: Ukraine's vulnerable eastern front?

A short note on the US employment report and the ISM surveys: A paradigm shift

The US labour market will continue to hit its ceiling without massive increases in productivity

Japan is a 'currency manipulator' - but no one has an interest in telling Tokyo [corrected]

Western central banks face a reality check. Wage inflation will not go away without higher unemployment - but this requires significant tightening

The EU Parliamentary election could prove to be fateful. It will reveal whether a strong centre has the support of the voters

The likelihood of 'significant EU de-risking' away from China is increasing

The Eurozone economy has stalled

The Bank of Japan continues to speak with a forked tongue. This cannot go unpunished for the yen as the US Federal Reserve may not be able to lower interest rates

The ECB would have already cut policy rates multiple times if these were 'normal times'. It is not!

Germany: The IFO survey continues to show improvement - but the risk of 'profound de-risking' away from China is on the rise

A dynamic geopolitical situation could sooner rather than later force the EU to address more aggressively its dependency on China

The aftermath of Scholz's kowtow: Beijing has a problem if the EU proves to have a backbone - and so will many European companies in China

US Philadelphia Fed survey: A new inflation leg is underway in the manufacturing sector

China: 'Impressive' growth number in Q1 if you are wearing blinkers

The missile attack wiped the slate clean for Netanyahu and opened a window of opportunity to target Iran's nuclear weapons program

The underlying details in China's trade statistics continue to show domestic weakness. Scholz headed for another kowtow in Beijing

Deflationary tendencies bring up the 'bazooka talk' again, but Beijing has a completely different agenda

USA: The Federal Reserve's job is far from done. Reducing service price inflation is difficult without a significant increase in unemployment

The Bank of Japan is playing with fire: Households are seeing stronger wage increases and higher inflation

If Ukraine falls, public sector expenditure in EU member states will rise rapidly in a world with many constraints

Another strong US labour market report will not give 'inevitable' policy rate cuts a particularly warm reception in the long end of the bond market

The US Federal Reserve now has a complete picture - but pointing in all directions

The ECB only has the option for symbolic policy rate cuts. Real bond yields will rise, and productivity needs to increase [includes two extra charts]

Are the many 'Acts' in the USA finally creating a new growth leg in the manufacturing sector?

Japan's service sentiment increases to the highest since 1991. Higher JGB yields will trigger rising bond yields in the USA and Eurozone

China's problem is that the EU intends to reduce dependence on a no longer trusted Beijing

Due to Easter, there will be no update from March 28 to April 1 - both days included

Sweden is in a strong position to enjoy the benefit of a changed geopolitical situation with friend-shoring and higher defence spending

European defence stocks speak their own language, but politicians are chasing the train

The German IFO survey is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. German politics has become pure chaos with no solution to huge problems

The Reuters Tankan survey signals an accelerating Japanese economy. Buy the yen

The European Central Bank's room for monetary easing is limited, even though a rate cut in June is highly likely

China's economic problems are now so significant that the 'Emperor' must visit the EU

The Bank of Japan does not need to say many wrong words to create an avalanche. The global consequences could be significant

Chinese house price index declines to 2018 low. TikTok is part of an intensifying economic conflict with the West

A short note on demographics, monetary policy, immigration and productivity

There is a good reason to fasten the seatbelt if Trump carries out just half his threats

US CPI inflation progress will be slow without a significant increase in unemployment. NFIB indicates this is in the pipeline - maybe

There will be no updates on March 13

German economy moves deeper into the abyss due to a lack of constructive political action. Industrial orders hit the lowest since 2010

China's trade report is yet another reminder of an impending trade war

Weaker US growth in 2024 will pave the way for 'the least bad president,' whom no one truly desires

A short note on the Two Sessions Meeting in Beijing: There is little focus on the economy but much on a massive military buildup. Putin created a big mess for Beijing

French budget deficit highlights the challenges facing the Eurozone. The four largest Eurozone members illustrate the problem for the ECB

China's economy is apparently so weak that a concerned Beijing will do everything possible to avoid a corporate exodus from China

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