2. February 2023
Must-read article about China
1. February 2023
USA: ISM survey shows slower manufacturing activity - but the JOLTS survey shows an even tighter labour market. The financial market is too optimistic when it comes to a monetary U-turn
Eurozone: Headline inflation drops, core inflation stays elevated, and the labour market remains very tight. A recipe for more tightening
USA: What kind of employment situation is the Federal Reserve facing? A very tight labour market - and this will lead to elevated wage inflation in the foreseeable future
31. January 2023
USA: The Employment Cost Index will not change the direction of monetary policy. Wages are still increasing at the fastest since 1984
The Eurozone escaped recession in Q4 due to high winter temperatures - but the ECB now has even more tightening to do
China: PMI survey shows relief rather than optimism. 'Xi going to Moscow' will undermine efforts to improve relations with the EU - unless Putin cannot distinguish between dreams and reality
30. January 2023
Eurozone: A strong rebound in economic sentiment requires a more robust response from the ECB - Sell the European stock market
EU: Monetary policymakers are walking a delicate balancing act but are forced to tighten more for longer. Spain's core inflation jumped in January, Sweden's economy shrank in Q4
27. January 2023
USA: New home sales report keeps the risk of a recession elevated - but the Federal Reserve is more focused on the risk of 'premature easing'
Japan: Inflation is 'transitory for longer'. The Bank of Japan needs an emergency exit in order not to lose face
26. January 2023
USA: The underlying details show a weak Q4 GDP report. The Federal Reserve will stay the course but is walking a delicate balancing act as the liquidity situation is very tight
Sweden: The Riksbank has made the bed; now, the economy must lie on it - NIER survey
South Korea: The economy shrank in Q4 - and the outlook is not improving. The Bank of Korea will pause, but the bias remains tightening
25. January 2023
Germany: IFO expectations index continues to bounce back, as a mild winter saves the economy - and not least the manufacturing sector
24. January 2023
Britain: CBI survey shows falling factory gates inflation and orders - but business optimism and hiring plans bounce back
France: Insee business sentiment survey indicates stable growth in the first quarter of 2023 - but the next inflation leg could be just around the corner
Germany: Falling energy prices boost consumer sentiment but fail to raise household spending. ECB faces a problematic inflation outlook
23. January 2023
Eurozone: Consumer confidence slowly bounces back from an all-time low as households see compensation for energy inflation that never emerged
22. January 2023
Podcast: China's reopening - 'On the ground insights' from a foreigner in Shanghai
20. January 2023
Germany: Factory gates inflation slows, leading to even lower consumer price inflation. Nonetheless, the ECB stays the course of monetary normalisation
19. January 2023
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows tentative signs of a 'possible' rock bottom in the manufacturing sector in March or April. Goods price deflation remains strong
Britain: The RICS survey shows a steep decline in house prices in an environment of elevated conventional inflation. The scope for a 'soft landing' is far too narrow for central banks to succeed
18. January 2023
USA: Factory gates inflation will prevail in the first few months of 2023, but service price inflation will stay elevated in H2
Japan: 'The last man is still standing' - but for how long?
Podcast: China after COVID - What does Beijing want - and what does it mean for us? [language: Danish]
17. January 2023
Britain: A tight labour market creates the foundation for higher policy rates. Low energy prices make leeway for a rebound in consumer sentiment
China: A 'miracle' has happened! The economy did not contract in Q4 despite a collapsing housing market and consumer sentiment. Really?
16. January 2023
Japan: Producer price inflation hits the highest since 1980, as the Bank of Japan's policy is finally coming to an end
China: Falling house prices and a weak economy underscore why Beijing suddenly shows a 'friendly face' to the rest of the world - but for how long?
13. January 2023
USA: Consumer sentiment bounces back as short-term inflation expectations decline. This will support the narrative of a 'soft landing', although this will prove to be no more than a false dawn
EU: Sweden's inflation rate jumps to the highest since 1991. Short-term tailwinds will be followed by headwinds from Q2 and beyond because European central banks will stay the course
12. January 2023
USA: Headline inflation declines due to goods price deflation - but service price inflation jumps, which is terrible news
China: Benign inflation in December, but Beijing U-turns will make the country inflationary in 2023. Xi Jinping is under heavy political pressure after one failed policy after another
11. January 2023
USA: NFIB small business survey shows slower growth and falling inflation. The Federal Reserve narrative now competes with the 'soft landing theme'
9. January 2023
There will be no updates on January 10
Eurozone: The labour market remains very tight. The ECB will stay the course, but a 'soft US landing scenario' will gain the upper hand in the financial in the short run
6. January 2023
USA: ISM service survey provides a 'growth shock' in December - although this is in line with the best early-leading indicators
USA: Robust employment growth and moderate wage increases in December - but the Federal Reserve stays the course with the unemployment rate close to a record low
Eurozone: EU survey shows a steep decline in households' inflation expectations - and more optimism regarding the labour market. 'Good' news - but not for the ECB - and core inflation jumps in December
Germany: Industrial orders plunged in November due to falling foreign demand. Tentative signs of a 'local bottom' in Q2, but two main factors will create headwinds in 2023
5. January 2023
USA: ADP Employment Report shows the economic slowdown is too insignificant to increase unemployment - meaning higher policy rates for longer
Japan: Consumer confidence increases marginally, but a record 64% of households see inflation above 5%. BOJ tightening is coming sooner rather than later
4. January 2023
USA: ISM survey shows price deflation prevails in the manufacturing sector - but the Jolts survey shows a strong labour market
A short note on Germany's import prices report: A steep decline in headline inflation in Q1 will be reinforced by falling energy prices
3. January 2023
Germany: Inflation declines sharply in December as 'demand destruction' and 'positive climate change' pull energy prices lower
Eurozone: More signs of a too tight labour market for comfort from ECB's perspective
Euro-zone inflation will fall significantly in the short run, but the 'monetary normalisation 'process will continue. The Bank of Japan's U-turn poses a significant risk to EU and US bonds
2. January 2023
China: First, the zero-policy Omicron strategy killed the economy. Now, Beijing's new Omicron narrative triggers a clumsy reopening of the economy. Consequence: A sharp decline in the PMI indexes
20. December 2022
The last day for updates is on December 20. Insightview will be back on January 3, 2023
Japan: The Japanese central bank is now caught in its own spin and a monetary policy that has only benefited the few. The U-turn will have significant global ramifications
Podcast interview: What will happen in 2023?
19. December 2022
Germany: IFO survey continues to bounce back - but the economy still faces more headwinds than tailwinds in 2023
16. December 2022
Eurozone: The consequences of the ECB transforming into the 'Bundesbank' will have a significant impact. How much will bond yields increase in the Eurozone?
15. December 2022
ECB President Lagarde's handling of market expectations poses a considerable risk to financial market stability
China: The downbeat November statistics underscore why 'fighting Covid' is dangerous for Xi Jinping, the Communist Party and the economy - and in that order
14. December 2022
Britain: A long-overdue decline in inflation will not change the Bank of England's policy towards more tightening
Insights from China: Xi Jinping policy 'is like throwing a dice'
13. December 2022
USA: Goods prices pull inflation lower while service inflation increases. The labour market is now more than ever the critical factor for future monetary policy
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey shows tentative signs of upcoming labour market weakness, but 'price plans' bounce back
Australia: Business sentiment slows, and capex in the mining sector remains weak despite strong secular 'tailwinds' for commodities
12. December 2022
China: Is Beijing on the road towards launching aggressive stimulus measures?
The daily weather forecast is now the most critical factor for the European economy. This is not a healthy foundation for the corporate sector in the long run
11. December 2022
Podcast: Another postcard from Chengdu - 'All of a sudden, Covid is no longer dangerous'
9. December 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation slows - but the next leg up, service inflation, may gain the upper hand in February
China: Does Beijing's U-turn mean more 'change of mind' in the pipeline?
8. December 2022
The European housing market: The decline in house prices accelerates - and central banks are not in a position to come to the rescue
7. December 2022
China: The opening-up measures aim to put a lid on the 'pressure from the mob' - and reduce the risk of a colour revolution
6. December 2022
Germany: 'Big items' boosts industrial orders in October, but the economy faces unprecedented headwinds in 2023
5. December 2022
USA: ISM service survey underscores that the Federal Reserve has plenty of work to do in the first half of 2023. 'Mind the gap!'
2. December 2022
USA: The November employment report underscores that the risk of second-round inflation will not disappear without a significant increase in unemployment
Germany: A sharp decline in import and producer prices will continue adding downward pressure on consumer price inflation to the range of 6% to 7% - but the same factors will add upward pressure from February
1. December 2022
USA: ISM manufacturing index declines into the 'contraction zone' - as predicted by the Philadelphia Fed survey for some time now
Germany: Retail sales plunged in October despite falling energy prices - and now energy prices are again on the rise, triggering 'postponed price increases'
Japan: Consumer confidence drops as households' inflation expectations hit a new all-time high. The labour market tightens markedly
30. November 2022
Eurozone: Headline inflation finally declines as expected, but core inflation increases - and now winter is coming
China: PMI survey shows Beijing is caught between a rock and a hard place - due to self-inflicted problems. Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin has died
29. November 2022
Eurozone: EU Commission survey shows falling inflation pressure - and improving economic sentiment - but a fragile energy infrastructure will create inflation pressure for years to come
Podcast interview with China expert Joergen Delman: Is there more than just Covid that has triggered the protests in China?
Sweden: The NIER survey heralds economic contraction and elevated inflation pressure for longer - despite falling prices in the coming months
28. November 2022
Eurozone: Monetary aggregates show a slowing economy - and a tighter liquidity situation. Investors will demand positive real bond yields as the ECB is no longer the buyer of last resort
The protests in China: The generational clash - or the conflict between the 'old-fashioned' Communist Party on the one side and the well-educated middle class and the young generation on the other side
25. November 2022
Japan: Tokyo inflation hits the highest since 1982 - and wage pressure is rising. Yen appreciation could be one of the most significant events in 2023
Eurozone: French and German consumer confidence improves, supported by compensation for 'energy inflation that disappeared'. Schnabel sees this as a good reason for the ECB to act
A short note on China's health and economic crises: The world needs to be prepared for a new wave of supply disruption in 2023
24. November 2022
Germany: The IFO headline index bounces back as energy prices plunge - at least until a week ago. Supply chain problems remain high, according to the IFO Institute
France: Insee business sentiment surveys show only a moderate growth decline - but increasing supply problems. Factory prices jump as energy prices bounce back from the rock bottom
23. November 2022
USA: New home sales statistics keep the 'mild recession' scenario alive - but also the monetary 'normalisation process'
Eurozone: Consumer confidence bounces back as households are compensated for energy inflation that 'disappeared'. It makes the 'normalisation process' easier for the ECB
A short note on China facing an unprecedented health crisis - and recession
22. November 2022
USA: The probability of a more profound recession is on the rise because the Federal Reserve is forced to err on the hawkish side
21. November 2022
China: Taiwan's export orders report shows a fragile mainland China economy. China facing the same Covid outbreak as Europe did in the last quarter of 2021 will create new global supply chain problems - and dilemma for Beijing
Germany: Factory gates inflation declines sharply in October - three months after energy prices peaked in August
18. November 2022
ECB: Everyone is on board - also President Lagarde. Fighting inflation is now a priority - but this will make significant inroads into 'excess liquidity' - and economic activity
Japan: Inflation hits the highest since 1991. The central bank maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy until it is no longer the case
17. November 2022
USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey underscores what an inverted yield curve also concludes: recession. But the Federal Reserve has more tightening to do
The Eurozone is on the same fiscal path as former Prime Minister Truss - and with no leader who can look after the interests of the union
Australia: A few rate hikes are not enough to slow growth and inflation. The unemployment rate hits an all-time low
16. November 2022
China: House prices continue lower. Beijing will soon discover that there is no easy way towards socialism without causing collateral damage
15. November 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation declines - precisely as outlined by the best forward-looking inflation indicators - but the Federal Reserve will not rest before inflation is below 3%
Britain: Strong wage gain will keep the Bank of England on a path of monetary tightening. This, and fiscal tightening, will reduce inflation expectations markedly in 2023
Germany: Inflation will decline significantly, but bond yields are headed higher
China: The October statistics disappoint - but are still surprisingly robust, considering contracting tax revenues and historically low consumer confidence
11. November 2022
USA: Consumer confidence declines sharply. Inflation expectations increase. Soon, households' net worth will decline
Britain: The first step into recession was taken in Q3, but the Bank of England will still be forced to tighten monetary policy
Eurozone: ECB policymakers are finally awake - and they have turned hawkish. The 'Ukraine excuse' is no longer used by the central bank
10. November 2022
A short note on the US October inflation report: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will not make the 1980-mistake made by Paul Volcker
USA: The October consumer price report undershoots elevated inflation expectations - to the surprise of the financial market
China: Monetary aggregates statistics show no signs of aggressive stimulus measures from Beijing
Italy: The economic situation 'appears stable', but this will not last, as Rome has no room for manoeuvring. The consumer confidence index plunges to the lowest since 2013 due to soaring inflation
Britain: The RICS survey is a harbinger of a steep price decline in house prices in 2023, which looks increasingly like a global phenomenon
9. November 2022
US midterm elections appear not to be the expected landslide victory for the Republicans. Donald Trump slowly becomes a liability
China: Factory gates deflation shows a weak economy. A challenge to hide 'recession' with the biggest sector contracting and consumer confidence at a record low
8. November 2022
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey provides no comfort to the Federal Reserve - wage pressure gains momentum
Podcast interview with a 'China insider', Mathias Boyer: Xi Jinping aims for centralisation, less urbanisation, and a socialist economy. What are the implications for growth? Must listen
7. November 2022
China: The October trade report shows the weakest export performance since May 2020, as Beijing opts for 'controlling risks' to the people rather than growth. Germany's China dependency hits a new high
4. November 2022
USA: The October employment report keeps the Federal Reserve on a path of more tightening - and, therefore, more global liquidity tightening
Eurozone: The Eurozone does not have the same inflation problem as the United States - but fiscal policymakers could make the problem worse
Germany: Industrial orders declined sharply in September, with more weakness coming. Annalena Baerbock warns Scholz about China
3. November 2022
USA: ISM service survey indicates slower growth, but inflation pressure remains elevated
USA: The Federal Reserve waited too long - and now it has to do too much. The ECB has good reasons to worry
2. November 2022
Has the Bank of Japan started 'undeclared' monetary tightening?
Eurozone: Policymakers need not worry about the labour shortage problem. A 'solution' is around the corner
Germany: Chancellor Scholz is 'forced' to travel to Beijing to kowtow to the 'Emperor', as Germany's manufacturing sector faces an existential crisis
1. November 2022
USA: ISM manufacturing survey underscores that falling inflation is in the pipeline, but the labour market remains far too tight
Britain: House prices declined in October at the fastest monthly pace since 2010 as buyers face headwinds from all directions
Germany: Wholesales and import prices herald a steep decline in annual consumer price inflation in the coming months - but the ECB will stay the course for good reasons
31. October 2022
Eurozone: The economy barely expands in Q3, as inflation hits a new all-time high. Fiscal policymakers will make ECB tightening much easier
China: Xi Jinping's print is evident in the official October PMI survey. US CHIPS Act will create severe headwinds. More Covid chaos hits Apple production
28. October 2022
Eurozone: EU Commission survey shows no rebound despite falling energy prices since August. ECB's task is far from done
Japan: Tokyo consumer price inflation hits the highest since 1991. Households' inflation expectations hit an all-time high
A short note on China: Going from 'bad' to 'worse'
USA: The Q3 GDP report will not change the stance of the Federal Reserve. Unemployment needs to increase more profoundly. The liquidity situation has tightened markedly
Eurozone: The ECB is finally 'data dependent'. The bank raises policy rates by 75 basis points
27. October 2022
Sweden: NIER Economic Tendency Survey shows accelerating downturn - weakness across the board
South Korea feels the heat from slowing global growth. Global slowdown, adverse demographics, and geopolitics will create headwinds in 2023
26. October 2022
ECB lending report shows signs of 'emergency borrowing'. The 'credit standard' for loan approval is deteriorating
China: Fiscal statistics paint a gloomy economic situation. Xi Jinping will keep his course with ideology as the main priority at the expense of the economy
25. October 2022
USA: Inflation dents consumer confidence - Conference Board. Philadelphia Fed survey shows strong service price inflation
Germany: IFO survey shows no decisive signs of a rebound in corporate sentiment despite falling energy prices. Olaf Scholz plays with fire by visiting Beijing
24. October 2022
China's Q3 GDP data are history - The country is now officially ruled by an authoritarian leader
By Invitation: Xi Jinping's moment of glory - winner takes all
21. October 2022
Britain: Consumers spend more for less. The 'Truss catastrophe' was only partly to blame for a sharp sell-off in the gilt market - but it is a lesson to the Labour party
20. October 2022
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey still heralds manufacturing recession
France: Business sentiment is steady, but underlying details show more than just an energy supply problem
Germany: No relief from the factory gates. The bond market shows that inflation is not the biggest problem. The paradigm shift is now the main headwind
19. October 2022
USA: The impact of higher mortgage rates hits the housing market across the board
Eurozone: How much could, potentially, nominal bond yields increase if the ECB is no longer there as a buyer of last resort?
Britain: Inflation stays at an elevated level. EU member states are making the same mistake as London before Truss made a U-turn
18. October 2022
USA: The manufacturing sector shows more resilience than in Europe. Conversely, the Federal Reserve will have to do more tightening
Germany's ZEW survey: Falling energy prices and households compensated for 'high energy prices' will keep the ECB on track towards significant monetary tightening
17. October 2022
China: History shows that it pays to listen to what authoritarian leaders say they will do in the future
USA: Empire States survey and UoM consumer sentiment survey show sticky inflation. The Federal Reserve remains on a firm path of tightening
14. October 2022
Britain: Kwasi Kwarteng exit shows the power of bond investors is strong without the central bank as the buyer of last resort - but real government bond yields are still too low
Germany: Berlin is doing nothing to reduce inflation pressure - and an incapable AfD leadership benefits from this
China: The details in the September inflation report underscore why yesterday's protest in Beijing could be more than just a rare social incident. Is this the top of an iceberg of dissatisfaction?
13. October 2022
USA: Sticky prices will force the Federal Reserve to stay the course for many months - and going into 2023
12. October 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation stays elevated, but 'core intermediate goods inflation' declines. The Federal Reserve remains on a path of tightening
Britain: The bumpy road away from quantitative easing leaves no room for manoeuvring. The Eurozone cannot afford to make the same mistakes
What will happen at the CCP party congress?
South Korea: The Bank of Korea raises policy rates by 0.5% to 3%. The economy faces multiple threats
11. October 2022
USA: NFIB small business survey shows that the Federal Reserve is on track but still has a long way to go
Japan: The Bank of Japan, like the ECB, has good reasons to worry about a monetary u-turn - but a weak yen has not moved exports higher since Abenomics was launched
10. October 2022
China: The economy could be headed towards its first recession
7. October 2022
USA: A robust employment report keeps the Federal Reserve on track towards more monetary tightening
Germany: Retail sales in volume terms drop sharply in August. The impact of falling energy prices is replaced by the fear of war in Europe
6. October 2022
Did Saudi Arabia just make a 'Putin mistake'?
Eurozone: Fiscal stimulus measures + monetary tightening = higher real bond yields
Germany: 'Big items' hit industrial orders in August. The outlook is weak, and Berlin's low-quality fiscal stimulus measures could create more pain in the bond market
5. October 2022
USA: The ISM service survey supports the Federal Reserve's stance of more monetary tightening. Unemployment is far too low, according to the central bank
Podcast interview with Green Power Denmark: Energy price settings, price differences in the European electricity market - and the risk of deindustrialisation [language: Danish]
Germany: At first glance, the export sector performs well but for the wrong reasons. The outlook for 2023 has deteriorated
USA: The JOLTS survey shows more signs of upcoming labour market weakness in 2023, but the Federal Reserve will stay the course
4. October 2022
Eurozone: Soaring energy prices propel PPI inflation to a new record high. Energy instability erodes Europe as a manufacturing hub - with or without a cold winter
Eurozone: Fiscal stimulus measures and monetary tightening mean higher real bond yields - but yield curve steepening shows investors are having 'second thoughts' about ECB's commitment
3. October 2022
USA: ISM manufacturing sentiment shows significant weakness - but also slowing inflation pressure at the factory gates
Turkey: Erdogan's unorthodox monetary policy may soon lead to hyperinflation
Japan: The economy performs better than the European economy, but the labour market is tight - and getting tighter
30. September 2022
EU: The Y-shaped stock market, 'war economy' - and the public sector on a spending spree with no buyer of last resort
China: PMI surveys show a weak economy. 'Common prosperity' is back on the agenda, which does not necessarily bode well for the private sector
29. September 2022
Germany: Inflation hitting the highest since 1951 will have ramifications for a vulnerable political system. A too fragile energy infrastructure could trigger deindustrialisation
Eurozone survey heralds recession, inflation higher for longer: There will be 'no labour shortage problem in 2023'. Households' unemployment expectations jumped sharply in September
28. September 2022
The Bank of England, on an ice floe, is panicking after years of manipulating the bond market. The ECB could soon be in the same situation
Sweden: NIER survey shows no signs of relief. The opposite is the case. Consumer confidence hits a new record-low
Germany: Households have neither confidence in the future nor the European Central Bank. 'Fragmentation' is no longer the main problem
27. September 2022
USA: A better-than-expected New Home Sales report underscores that the Federal Reserve has much more tightening to do - but households' inflation expectations decline
Eurozone: Corporate lending jumps as loan demand declines. The liquidity situation tightens significantly
26. September 2022
Podcast interview: What will happen if Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine? Three experts answer [Language: Danish]
Germany: IFO survey is now a harbinger of an 8% economic contraction. There is weakness across the board
23. September 2022
British and Eurozone consumer confidence indexes drop again sharply to new record lows, as policymakers underestimate headwinds headed towards households
22. September 2022
Eurozone: Belgian and Dutch consumer confidence indexes drop to a new record low as households and companies face unprecedented headwinds
The Swiss and other central banks raising policy rates will force the Bank of Japan and a reluctant ECB to act. This will trigger yen repatriation
Federal Reserve: 'There is no easy way to get inflation down'. Policy rates to stay higher for longer
21. September 2022
USA: Existing home prices are headed significantly lower in 2023
How much will bond yields increase now as the 'buyers of last resort' made a U-turn?
Recommendation: Buying the yen and selling the euro
20. September 2022
The Riksbank and the ECB proved not to be up to the task. They reacted too late to an obvious risk. Consequently, their economies will now plunge into a deep recession
Germany: Factory gates inflation soared in August, but core inflation declined. A massive increase in unemployment is now in the pipeline
Japan: Headline inflation hits 3% - and higher inflation is in the pipeline. The Bank of Japan reversing monetary policy will have global ramifications
19. September 2022
USA: The NAHB index continues to see trouble in the housing market. The Federal Reserve will stay the course until the unemployment rate moves to a 'safe distance' from NAIRU
China: The downturn in the housing market continues - prices, sales and construction activity decline
15. September 2022
There will be no updates on September 16
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows no signs of a manufacturing rebound, but price pressure continues to decline caused by 'demand destruction'
French households are exposed to low inflation at the expense of energy self-sufficient countries with free market prices. Berlin and Paris showing no signs of 'energy solidarity' could backfire when winter arrives
China: Guangzhou allowing 20% home price cuts will have huge ramifications. Households' only 'safe investment' is now gone
14. September 2022
USA: Factory gate inflation slows due to falling commodity prices, but the next inflation leg will come from a tight labour market
The consequence of ignoring inflation in the first place will lead to a steep increase in US and European unemployment in 2023. China shows the same symptoms
Britain: Inflation statistics show tentative signs of having peaked, but the Bank of England has significantly more tightening in the pipeline. European liquidity tightening gains momentum
13. September 2022
USA: A disappointing August CPI report underscores the Federal Reserve is on a path of significant tightening. A tight labour market will create the next inflation leg
Germany: The ZEW survey closes the gap with the IFO survey. Berlin, the weakest link in Europe's energy infrastructure, needs to show more humility
Lower inflation, Russia's 'defeat'. Too good to be true? Maybe, but central banks will stay the course of monetary tightening - and more European companies may vote with their feet
12. September 2022
The far-right Brothers of Italy party knows the path toward power is through the centre, showing its true colours after the election
Europe: So far, the biggest surprise is the slow decline in the economy
9. September 2022
China: Monetary statistics still show a sluggish economy - but Chinese exporters now focus on European manufacturers under siege
China: No signs of inflation still leave room for more easing - but Beijing will not make the same 'mistake' as in 2008
8. September 2022
Eurozone: The ECB finally sees the writing on the wall, but this comes too late to support the euro. More tightening in the pipeline despite Lagarde trying to dilute today's decision during the press conference
Britain: A steep decline in house prices is now in the pipeline, according to RICS. This will hit all of Europe as households are exposed to unprecedented purchasing power erosion - and monetary tightening
Podcast interview with Jens Eskelund, Member of the Executive Committee of the European Chamber in China: Is the economic situation in China worse today than in 2008?
7. September 2022
China: The 'only' growth driver disappoints as the world economy slows. Beijing will not launch '2008-like stimulus measures'
6. September 2022
USA: The ISM service survey shows more tailwinds as inflation pressure declines and employment turns positive again but also supports the Federal Reserve staying the course
Australia: The RBA raises policy rates to the highest since 2015. More in the pipeline, but the Aussie will see little support from this
Germany: Industrial orders continue to decline - and more is coming with or without a mild winter
5. September 2022
Podcast interview with Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, PIIE and German Marshall Fund: China's economic model no longer works
2. September 2022
USA: A strong employment report in August. Is soaring inflation forcing more workers to re-enter the labour force?
Euro-zone: Factory gates inflation surprises again the market consensus. There is little room for significantly higher wages, as many European companies will soon find themselves in an existential crisis without a steep decline in energy prices
Podcast interview: 'A postcard from Chengdu in China' - Must Listen
1. September 2022
USA: A well-balanced manufacturing ISM survey except for a bounce in the employment index. Factory gates inflation falls sharply. No signs of manufacturing recession - at least not yet
Europe: The 'German disease' spreads rapidly to all of Europe
Germany: The July retail sales report and consumer surveys herald significant economic weakness in H2. A new lockdown in Chengdu will create new supply chain problems
31. August 2022
Eurozone: The ECB talks about 'data dependent'. If this is the case, the central bank should have raised policy rates in 2021
China's official PMI survey: The economy is in trouble. Beijing launches measures 'to fight headwinds created by Beijing'. Could China reinforce European deindustrialization?
30. August 2022
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey is far too strong to be good news for the financial market. Inflation expectations drop
Euro-zone: EU survey shows a sharp drop in households' inflation expectations despite soaring energy prices
Sweden: The economic outlook continues to deteriorate. Households' inflation expectations soar in August
26. August 2022
USA: Falling inflation will create the foundation for false dawn, but the Federal Reserve is still expected to stay the course
France: Consumer confidence bounces back from the lowest since 2013, but the foundation for 'artificially low inflation' will disappear on January 1
Germany: Another sharp decline in consumer sentiment and no rebound in IFO indicators underscore the risk of unprecedented economic contraction in the second half of 2022
China is in growth panic: Huawei founder talks about 'survival'. Is Beijing now on a spending spree similar to the 'mother-of-all-stimulus measures' in 2008?
25. August 2022
Germany: IFO survey still confirms economic contraction of 6% - and the survey has rarely been wrong
France: Manufacturing sentiment declines, but the overall composite index continues to herald 'moderate growth' - and not recession
24. August 2022
South Korea's industry is well-prepared for the new game in town, global military build-up, reinforced by a more hawkish new government
23. August 2022
USA: New home sales plunge to the lowest since January 2016. A sharp increase in inventory of unsold homes is a harbinger of a sharp decline in existing home prices
What does the slope of the yield curve say about the future?
22. August 2022
Euro-zone: A sharp decline in Dutch consumer confidence in August is a harbinger of a very tough time for the union
19. August 2022
British consumer confidence drops to the lowest since 1974, as households' standard of living is on a long-term decline
Podcast interview with Morten Springborg: The collapse of the European Union's energy policy and green transition. 'Put naivety aside or we will face deindustrialisation and huge welfare losses in Europe' [language: Danish]
Germany: A terrible PPI report shows energy inflation is feeding into all sectors
18. August 2022
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey indicates a 'possible' bottom in the manufacturing sector in Q4. Signs of falling inflation still prevail
The penny finally 'seems' to have dropped at the ECB, but this is a painfully slow process
17. August 2022
USA: Inflation makes inroads into retail sales, but households are in a much better position than in Europe
Britain: Inflation hits the highest level in 40 years. The role of monetary policy to boost growth will disappear in the current environment
A short note on the ramifications of chaos in an unbalanced energy market in the European Union - or a failed energy strategy
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows a rebound in manufacturing and service sentiment. Stop-loss in 'short-Japanese-stocks strategy'
16. August 2022
US housing starts dropped sharply in July, as the affordability index plunged at the fastest rate since 1982
The consequences of the EU's naive energy policy are spreading to the entire economy, but naivety continues in Berlin
15. August 2022
USA: Empire State survey shows a steep decline in business sentiment to the lowest since May 2020. Manufacturing recession?
Germany: Wholesale price statistics indicate falling CPI inflation, but skyrocketing electricity prices will soon put an end to the joy
China's central bank cuts rates as other decision-makers are doing 'repair' after the policy mess created by President Xi Jinping
12. August 2022
USA: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index improves. One-year inflation expectations drop, but five-year inflation expectations increase
Euro-zone: Manufacturing output continues to bounce back, but the need to boost inventories is slowly evaporating
Britain: Q2 GDP report is the beginning of a deeper economic contraction as the 'perfect storm' in Europe's electricity market hits the shore
11. August 2022
USA: The decline in factory gates inflation has started. More positive inflation surprises are in the pipeline
USA: A short note on the July inflation report
10. August 2022
USA: Inflation declines more than market expectations keeping alive the storyboard of 'investors believing policy rates will hit the peak soon' - although this will prove a false dawn
China does not have an inflation problem. Beijing benefits from cheap energy from its 'vassals' - for instance, Russia
9. August 2022
USA: Labour productivity declines at the fastest rate since WWII as the Federal Reserve talks about 'higher NAIRU'
USA: NFIB survey shows signs of falling inflation pressure. The labour market remains tight, as NAIRU is higher today than a decade ago
USA: Federal Reserve of New York confirms falling inflation ahead - but this will not prevent the US central bank from launching aggressive tightening
8. August 2022
China: Exports boost the trade surplus to an all-time high, as weak domestic demand puts a lid on imports. Foreign companies on the mainland face several dilemmas
5. August 2022
USA: The employment report shows that the Federal Reserve still has much more tightening in the pipeline in 2022
Nancy Pelosi has made the geopolitical situation even worse for the European Union
Euro-zone: There are tentative signs of manufacturing improvement, but 'talking-before-thinking' politicians could soon trigger a more dangerous supply chain disruption
4. August 2022
Germany: There are no signs of a rebound in industrial orders - but 'financial sentiment' improves due to 'inflation expectations' and 'peace talk'
3. August 2022
USA: The ISM service survey is short-term ammo to the stock market but also more evidence of a hawkish Federal Reserve despite lower inflation pressure
Euro-zone: Retail sales fell sharply in June. The headwinds will be even stronger in Q3
Turkey: Erdogan tightens his grip on power instead of fighting what increasingly looks like hyperinflation
2. August 2022
A short note on Nancy Pelosi's 'upcoming' Taiwan visit: Xi Jinping is forced to show some kind of 'comprehensive' response to avoid losing face
Switzerland: A steep decline in consumer sentiment says much about what is in the pipeline in the Eurozone
South Korea's inflation rate hits the highest level since 1998 - and Australia raises policy rates by 50 basis points
1. August 2022
USA: Manufacturing ISM survey shows no signs of recession - but factory gates inflation declines markedly
Germany: Retail sales plunge in June - and headwinds will get worse. Too-high retailer inventories will trigger 'sales' in Q3
China: The July PMI survey shows no signs of improvement, as political stubbornness prevails. 'Taiwan' is seen as a welcome diversion from domestic headwinds
29. July 2022
USA: The PCE indicator and Employment Cost Index show an increased risk of stronger second-round inflation. The ECI index rose at the fastest rate since 1984
Euro-zone: The periphery boosting growth and inflation in Q2 is a reminder to the ECB that negative policy rates will not do the job of taming inflation
Japan: The share of households seeing inflation above 5% jumps to a new all-time high of 62%. The labour market is short of workers - and Kuroda is short of excuses
France: The economy 'outshines' neighbouring Germany - and no signs yet of recession, but inflation will create trouble for household spending
28. July 2022
Euro-zone: EU Commission survey underscores the risk of a steep upcoming decline in economic activity - not least because of Germany
Sweden: A steep decline in consumer sentiment pulls the broader economic sentiment index lower
USA: The Federal Reserve raises policy rates, but, unfortunately, Mr Powell also shows signs of having second thoughts far too early
27. July 2022
The big read: Xi Jinping faces heavy headwinds after a series of policy mistakes
USA: There are no signs yet of a recession in capital spending statistics - but the best forward-looking indicators are headed South
Germany: GfK consumer sentiment index drops to a new all-time low. Falling income expectations bodes ill for private consumption in H2
France: Insee consumer confidence survey provides more evidence of a Eurozone recession
26. July 2022
USA: A sharp decline in new home sales boosts the risk of more than just a 'mild' recession
Sweden: Factory gates inflation hits a new record high, but the Riksbank turning into a 'prudent' central bank will support the currency
South Korea: Strong consumer demand boosts Q2 GDP growth. Highly successful arms exporters could make the next boost to the economy
25. July 2022
Britain: CBI Industrial Survey shows falling orders and lower inflation pressure at the factory gates
A disappointing IFO survey shows Putin successfully playing around with Germany. The risk of social and political tensions is on the rise. Beijing might provide an exit door
22. July 2022
A reluctant ECB President Lagarde is finally forced to do what is long overdue - but the decision comes too late to prevent a deep recession
21. July 2022
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows an accelerating risk of a recession in the second half of 2022. Inflation pressure declines
France: Business sentiment is slowing but still higher than in Germany. Inflation expectations declined sharply in July
Euro-zone: Consumer confidence hits a new all-time low. Italy is left on its own because, this time, the ECB's freedom of manoeuvring is limited
20. July 2022
China: Taiwan export orders underscore the extent of economic 'contraction' in mainland China. Xi Jinping sits securely in the seat until he doesn't
Factory gate inflation has peaked, but Germany needs to pull itself together by abandoning energy naivety. Nuclear energy is now back on the agenda - finally
Britain: The June CPI report is yet another blow to an arrogant Bank of England that failed to see the forest for the trees
19. July 2022
The British labour market is still very tight, but the economy is headed towards a recession
USA: A sharp decline in the NAHB homebuilder index is more evidence of a 'recession coming'
15. July 2022
A short note on the yield curve: A firm commitment to bring down inflation will continue to invert the yield curve. This will be seen as positive news - until further notice
China: The economy contracts sharply in Q2 after a series of Xi policy mistakes. New Covid outbreaks in Guangdong
14. July 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation underscores the Federal Reserve's commitment to tighten monetary policy aggressively in H2
Germany: There are signs that annual inflation might peak soon. Nonetheless, significant ECB tightening is needed even though the recession is already here
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Sorensen: The new world order has turned everything upside down. Values are no longer on top of the foreign and security policy agenda
13. July 2022
USA: Soaring energy prices push headline inflation higher, while annual core inflation declines. The Federal Reserve remains on a path of significantly more tightening in H2
China trade report: Exporters are in a hurry to fulfil delayed orders from abroad. The underlying details show a weak manufacturing sector
The Bank of Korea's 0.5% message to the ECB: Listen and learn!
12. July 2022
USA: The NFIB small business survey shows tentative signs of more than just a 'normal recession'
Germany: ZEW investor survey underscores that Berlin and Brussels need to abandon a naive energy policy now - and not tomorrow. We are in an emergency situation
11. July 2022
China: Inflation is not the problem. The Covid strategy could trigger a financial crisis, political and social instability
8. July 2022
The US labour market report showing strong employment growth will keep the Federal Reserve on a path of more tightening - but wage inflation is relatively benign considering a tight labour market
A short note on the declining euro
Japan: Inflation pressure hits consumer confidence and service sentiment in June
7. July 2022
Germany: Industrial production - The biggest problem is no longer the supply chain but a deteriorating demand side. The solution is to abandon naivety
A brief and unfiltered note on the short-term outlook for the stock market - and the possibility of a positive inflation surprise in the United States, particularly
Insightview recommends taking a minor profit in the 'short Japanese stock market' strategy
6. July 2022
USA: ISM service survey indicates a 'soft landing', but it will also convince the Federal Reserve to stay the course
The bond market and US yield curve flattening - and still negative real bond yields in Japan and Germany
Germany: Industrial orders are supported by overseas demand, but contraction will continue in the second half of 2022. ECB creates the foundation for an existential EMU crisis in 2022
5. July 2022
Sweden: Service sentiment drops sharply as supply-side inflation will not go away. Consumer confidence plunges. More monetary tightening ahead
South Korea: Inflation hits the highest level since the Asian Crisis in 1997-1998. The Bank of Korea could opt for a 50 basis points rate hike in July
4. July 2022
The Swiss National Bank acts long before an indecisive European Central Bank even though Euro-zone inflation is much lower
Germany faces a tsunami with several waves. Fasten your seatbelt!
USA: 'Demand destruction' across the board will put a lid on inflation in the short run - and plunge the economy into recession in 2022
21. June 2022
Vacation - part 1 - from June 21 to July 1
20. June 2022
Germany: The extent of the ECB's 'policy mistake' is unforgivable, but what if this is a deliberate policy?
16. June 2022
Podcast interview with Carsten Rasmussen, Danish Brigadier General: Will Berlin-Paris-Rome make a '1938 deal' with Russia at the expense of Ukraine?[language: Danish]
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey boosts the probability of manufacturing recession to 100%
The Federal Reserve regains credibility, while the ECB is on a 'mission impossible'. The Bank of Japan is 'the last man standing'
15. June 2022
USA: Household spending takes another beating. Soon, a negative wealth effect will hit private consumption as well, but the Federal Reserve is finally doing the right thing
Japan: The manufacturing sector sees support from a weak yen. More than half of households now expect inflation of more than 5%
China: Beijing has a growth problem despite stronger-than-expected May statistics - and it is, to no small extent, man-made headwinds
14. June 2022
USA: Small business sentiment survey indicates significant inflation pressure, falling sales, tighter labour market - and more monetary tightening
The 'old guards' in charge of the European Union are sweetmeat for President Putin - but also good reasons to worry about what comes next
13. June 2022
Britain, EU and USA: The recession call is not 2023 but 2022. The geopolitical situation deteriorates as Taiwan-China tension increases
10. June 2022
USA: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey reveals the extent of the Federal Reserve's problem even though the central bank is finally doing the right thing
The US economy has a massive inflation problem, which will be followed by deflation from mid-2023. This is the price of having responded too late to inflation pressure
China: The inflation environment remains benign, but the economy is exposed to significant headwinds
9. June 2022
ECB press conference: President Lagarde's performance was 'inflationary' because she did nothing to repair the credibility of the bank
ECB decision: The 'wrong answer' to the inflation problem could, potentially, plunge the EMU into a deep crisis
Britain: The housing market sees the first indications of a tsunami coming
China: Exports bounce back in May, but overseas demand is slowing rapidly - and domestic demand is weak
8. June 2022
Inflation has 'maybe' peaked, but supply-side inflation will stay elevated - and keep monetary policy tightening on track
7. June 2022
Germany: Industrial orders plunge in April - in line with the IFO survey but much weaker than the market consensus. More weakness to come.
Japan: Wages are on the rise but not fast enough to prevent real purchasing power erosion. Monetary tightening is around the corner
3. June 2022
There will be no updates on June 6 due to a public holiday in Denmark
USA: ISM service survey indicates more weakness, as inflation pressure will not go away
USA: Employment report shows strong employment growth but not accelerating wage increases. Not too hot, but the report still supports many rate hikes
South Korea: Higher-than-expected inflation will force the Bank of Korea to speed up its tightening process
2. June 2022
Brazil: The lull before the storm - and the choice between a rock and a hard place
Euro-zone: The case for even higher bond yields remains strong despite falling inflation in the second half of 2022. The Euro-zone bond market is still out of whack
1. June 2022
USA: ISM survey shows robust manufacturing activity - and price pressure remains at an elevated level but declining slightly. This keeps the Federal Reserve on a path of significant monetary tightening
European Union: The 'delayed delivery' of orders placed in Q3, 2021, creates havoc for many retailers, as the demand-side situation has changed radically
Germany: Retail sales take a significant beating, as inflation creates 'demand destruction'. More real purchasing power erosion coming
31. May 2022
USA: Households face headwinds, according to the Conference Board consumer survey but still not to the same extent as in 2008
Euro-zone: Inflation hitting a new all-time high will force the ECB to face the reality in the 'real world'. The ECB will follow the Federal Reserve
China: The 'reopening process' boosts business sentiment, but Beijing's Covid strategy will not go away, as the authorities eye the next variant, Omicron Ba.5
30. May 2022
Germany: Inflation jumps to the highest since 1952, as 'stability' is no longer part of Berlin's vocabulary. The ECB will be forced to tighten many times - and soon the Bank of Japan will follow
Euro-zone: EU Commission survey shows moderating inflation pressure - and weak consumer sentiment
25. May 2022
Geopolitics goes from 'bad' to 'terrible'. President Biden's 'Taiwan speech' and the 'Xinjiang files' could bring forward 'unavoidable' tensions between the West and China
Sweden: Consumer confidence drops to the lowest level since 2008, but the corporate sector underestimates what is coming. Geopolitics goes from 'bad' to 'terrible'
Germany: A 'delayed' refilling of inventories was the only growth contributor in the first quarter, but the demand-side situation has changed markedly since Q3 in 2021
24. May 2022
USA: New home sales statistics underscore that 'recession' is coming. A sharp decline in existing home prices is in the pipeline, according to a sharp increase in the inventory of unsold homes
France: Business sentiment is holding up supported by a rebound in service sentiment. Manufacturing inflation expectations jump to a new record high
Podcast interview with Claus Mathiesen, Royal Danish Defence College, and former defence attaché in Ukraine: Where is Russia headed? [language: Danish]
23. May 2022
Germany: The IFO survey shows an unchanged gloomy outlook, but the 'feared outcome 'has not yet hit the shore
20. May 2022
Germany: Inflation is out of control and voters are not pleased. Workers not only worry about inflation, but they also worry about job security in a tight labour market
Britain: Consumer confidence hits the lowest level since the First Oil Crisis - and the food crisis has only just started. China eases monetary policy
19. May 2022
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey further increases the risk of recession in the second half of 2022
Euro-zone: It feels as if European policymakers do not really understand what is coming
Japan's weak-yen policy backfires, as expensive imports of energy soar. The Bank of Japan making a U-turn poses another risk to the global financial market
18. May 2022
Britain: Inflation jumps to the highest since January 1982, as the Bank of England uses more time on finding excuses rather than confronting the problem, inflation
China: The impact of Beijing's policy mistakes hits the shores more broadly
17. May 2022
USA: Inflation boosts retail sales, but retail sales in volume terms contract significantly. The report reflects inflation and real purchasing power erosion
Euro-zone: The big slow-down will come abruptly and as a huge surprise to policymakers
16. May 2022
USA: Consumer sentiment plunges, but inflation expectations stabilise at an elevated level
Germany: There are no signs of slowing inflation pressure. Food price inflation gains the upper hand. The next factors are social and political tensions
China: The Great Leap Backward hits the economy in April. The risk of recession is high unless Beijing makes a 'highly unlikely' policy U-turn
12. May 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation seems to have peaked. The Federal Reserve seems to be in a better position to rein in inflation expectations than the ECB
The ECB underestimates what the bank has started: The EMU has turned 'south European' - a steep euro decline can no longer be ruled out
Britain: The economy loses momentum, but a far too accommodative monetary policy still supports home prices. More aggressive tightening is still in the pipeline despite slower growth
11. May 2022
There are no updates on Friday, May 13, due to a public holiday in Denmark
US CPI report: Energy inflation slows, but inflation is broadening to the entire economy. Inflation expectations will not go away without significant monetary tightening
Australia: Consumer sentiment plunges. The Australian bond market poses a warning to the Euro-zone
China: Inflation surprises to the upside - but Beijing makes no surprises. Instead, Xi Jinping doubles down on the Covid strategy
10. May 2022
USA: NFIB small business survey shows evidence of 'demand destruction' - the demand side is down and prices are on the rise
Podcast interview with Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China: China is losing its credibility as the best sourcing location in the world
Insightview recommends taking short-term profit on the 'short US stock market' strategy
9. May 2022
China's trade report underscores the 'friendship' of Putin and Xi Jinping - but also more trouble for the mainland economy. FX reserves drop at the fastest rate since 2016
A short note on two cornered autocratic leaders 'forced' to tighten their grip on power more aggressively
6. May 2022
USA: The demand for workers is strong, but the supply is not increasing accordingly
Japan: 'Low' inflation combined with a reversal of monetary policy could make the yen an inflation hedge
5. May 2022
A short note on the Federal Reserve raising policy rates: Mr Powell, who also predicted 'transitory inflation', now forecasts a 'soft landing'. Is this a relief?
Germany: Industrial orders plunge in March as predicted by the IFO survey. More weakness in the pipeline as the ECB is no longer part of the solution
4. May 2022
USA: The ISM service survey shows slowing growth and inflation pressure at an all-time high - not a good cocktail for the stock market
Euro-zone: Retail sales dropped in March but are headed for an even steeper decline in the second quarter - and there will be no help from a 'cornered' ECB
Sweden: PMI service shows a strong rebound in the employment index to the highest level since 2018. The Riksbank has plenty of reasons to continue monetary tightening
USA: JOLTS survey shows how much the Federal Reserve is behind the curve. What are the consequences?
3. May 2022
Germany: A very tight labour market with a recession on the horizon shows how complicated the situation is for the ECB significantly behind the curve
Delayed update: US manufacturing ISM survey shows possible signs of 'demand destruction' caused by soaring inflation. Anyhow, the monetary tightening process remains on track
2. May 2022
Euro-zone: The corporate sector's inflation expectations jump to a new all-time high. 'In Europe, you haven’t even begun to see the effects of China lockdown. The ships coming into Europe today left Shanghai before the lockdown'
China: The official PMI survey shows a steep and broad-based decline in economic sentiment. This is a man-made downturn linked to the 'core leader'
29. April 2022
There will be no updates after 1 PM on Monday, May 2
USA: PCE inflation headline inflation hits the highest level since 1982 - core inflation declines
Germany: Import price inflation hits the highest level since 1974. Suddenly, ECB President Lagarde admits that 'her economic team made a mistake'
28. April 2022
USA: The economy contracted in Q1, but real domestic demand was strong. Inflation continues to go higher
Germany: Consumer price inflation hits the highest level since 1974. Unfortunately, there is more price pressure in the pipeline from Russia, China and food prices
Sweden: The Riksbank finally raises policy rates as inflation expectations hit a new all-time high, according to the NIER survey. Soon, the ECB will follow - and a reluctant Bank of Japan
27. April 2022
Germany: GfK consumer sentiment plunges to an all-time low as the economy faces the biggest crisis since the Second World War
26. April 2022
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey continues to see falling consumer expectations and elevated inflation but to a smaller extent than in Europe
A short note on China's handling of the Omicron variant: Is this more a political power game than about Omicron? Still, the consequence is 'the mother of all supply chain disruption'
25. April 2022
Britain: CBI survey shows a steep decline in business optimism
Germany: A minor rebound in the IFO business sentiment index does not change a dire growth outlook for the second half of 2022
The risk of a deep global recession means that Insightview recommends unwinding the 'long the Australian dollar against the euro and the US dollar' strategy
22. April 2022
Britain: Consumer confidence plunges as households face a tsunami of problems - and they are not 'transitory'
21. April 2022
USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey is now a 'clear indicator' of recession in H2
Podcast interview with Michael Chang, Yara Marine Technologies, in Shanghai: The consequences of what looks like a failed Covid strategy in China
France: Business sentiment stays at an elevated level in April. The 'risk of Marine Le Pen' declines after yesterday's TV debate
Dutch consumer confidence index plunges to a new all-time low significantly lower than in 2020. The impact of all skeletons falling out of the closet simultaneously is underestimated by the financial market
20. April 2022
USA: Existing home sales drop as higher mortgage rates and real wage erosion create headwinds
Germany: Factory gate prices skyrocketed in March. A failed Covid-strategy in China will add even more upward pressure on prices in the coming months
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Sorensen: The global consequences of President Putin's historical policy mistake of invading Ukraine - and a few words on the Danish EU defence opt-out referendum [Language: Danish]
19. April 2022
A short note on why the ECB has many good reasons to be scared when it comes to making a monetary U-turn - but it has no other option
China: A strong Q1 GDP report does not fit into the overall picture. The economy faces heavy headwinds - and Xi Jinping is under pressure
13. April 2022
It is a public holiday in Denmark from April 14 to April 18. Therefore, there will be no updates
USA: Factory price inflation just keeps going higher. Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's catastrophic handling of Omicron will create the next leg of inflation
China: The global supply chain bottlenecks move from eastern ports to between provinces and cities due to the 'zero-tolerance strategy'
Britain: Inflation jumps to the highest since 1991. The Bank of England and other central banks are forced to tighten significantly. New Zealand hikes policy rates by 50 basis points
12. April 2022
USA: Consumer price inflation hits the highest level since 1981, but core inflation is lower than market expectations
USA: NFIB small business sentiment index declines close to the lowest level since April 2020. The six-month index plunges to a new all-time low. Inflation pressure increases
A short note on 'the mother of all repricing' in the European and US bond markets: The ECB's 'fantasy' could, potentially, topple the EU house of cards, unless the central bank pulls itself together
10. April 2022
There will be no updates on April 11
8. April 2022
Japan: The Bank of Japan plays with fire because voters are turning the other cheek - but for how long?
An important note about Russia's invasion of Ukraine: What if Marine Le Pen is elected the next president? Xi Jinping faces a tsunami of selfmade problems. Tensions in Pakistan. Delhi risks scoring an own goal
7. April 2022
Britain: The housing market remains the 'safest' inflation hedge - but for how long?
6. April 2022
Euro-zone: Factory gates inflation moves deeper into the 'demand destruction zone'
Germany: The February industrial orders statistics could prove to be a 'good month' in comparison to what comes next, according to the latest IFO survey
China: PMI service sentiment plunges to the lowest level since February 2020, as Xi Jinping's policy mistakes hit the shore. Beijing needs a new campaign to bolster Xi. Who will be the scapegoats for Xi's mistakes?
5. April 2022
USA: ISM service survey continues to show robust growth, but inflation pressure is on the rise
Sweden: PMI service survey shows a relatively benign 'Ukraine impact' on sentiment - so far - but inflation pressure is broadening
South Korea feels the heat: Energy prices are skyrocketing. Xi Jinping's China opts for Putin and is looking for a scapegoat to divert the attention from a failed Covid strategy
4. April 2022
Delayed update: US manufacturing ISM survey and employment report underscore the risk of stagflation. Several tsunamis will hit the shore in the coming months
Turkey: Inflation soars - but the war in Ukraine has turned President Erdogan into a winner
31. March 2022
Re-sell the US stock market
Insightview recommends taking short-term profit on the 'short German 30-year bond future' strategy
China: The official PMI composite index drops to the lowest level since February 2020
30. March 2022
Germany: Inflation hits the highest level since 1973, as the ECB has totally lost touch with the Euro-zone economy
Euro-zone: Inflation expectations skyrocket into the 'out of control' zone
Sweden: Business sentiment increases as consumer confidence collapses. Households' inflation expectations skyrocket in March
29. March 2022
Germany: Consumer sentiment collapses to the lowest level since June 2020, as the culmination of several policy mistakes hit the shore at the same time
France: Consumer confidence plunges. The ECB cannot ignore a record-high share of households seeing soaring inflation - the highest since 1971
25. March 2022
Germany: A steep decline in the IFO expectations index is a harbinger of recession in Q2 and Q3. Beijing's Covid strategy will create the next inflation leg
Britain: Consumer confidence plunges as inflation pressure increases. Anecdotal evidence from China does not give rise to inflation optimism. The impact of lockdowns is broadening
24. March 2022
The next leg in the 'mother of all repricing' in the European and US bond markets
France: The big reckoning of aggressive stimulus measures in 2020 and 2021 and now Russia's invasion of Ukraine has started
23. March 2022
Podcast interview with Carsten Rasmussen, Danish Brigadier General, defence attaché, at the Danish embassy in Moscow: President Putin's invasion of Ukraine [language: Danish]
Britain: Inflation jumps to the highest level since 1992 as 'the mother of all repricing' has started in the bond market
22. March 2022
Britain: Factory gates inflation pressure jumps to the highest since the early 1970s - Euro-zone yield curve steepens
21. March 2022
Buoyant Taiwanese export orders, but real purchasing power erosion in the US and Europe will create headwinds
Germany: Factory gate inflation soars. Brave Green Party ministers quickly replace ideology with 'realpolitik', as they realise the threat from Putin - and China - is on the rise
18. March 2022
Ukraine: There appears to be a significant U-turn in sentiment on Chinese social media
17. March 2022
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows strong short-term momentum, but a recession in H2 - and inflation pressure at the highest since the second oil crisis in 1979
Australia: A strong economic rebound creates a faster-than-expected recovery in the labour market. The commodity sector is buoyant. Buy the Australian dollar
The US Federal Reserve faces a 'Volcker moment' - but a 'little late'. Is the stock market prepared for a 'loyal friend' in Beijing?
16. March 2022
USA: Soaring energy prices hit non-energy consumption in February. Secular rearmament will support growth but not be enough to mitigate the negative impact of inflation on private consumption
China: Public support for Russia seems to be on the decline, as Putin is seen as a 'dead man walking' - and the Chinese hate betting on a loser. Nonetheless, Beijing is caught on the wrong foot in the Ukraine conflict
15. March 2022
US defence and energy sectors 'coming to the rescue of Europe' will add more upward pressure on inflation in the United States
Germany: Investor sentiment collapses as the economy faces a chaotic future - but Berlin has, fortunately, abandoned the 'appeasement policy'
China: The economy bounces back, but Beijing's 'best friend', Putin, has turned into a heavy drag. The big exit from China will accelerate unless Xi Jinping gets rid of 'excess weight'
14. March 2022
A short note on the Ukraine Crisis, Omicron hitting 'unprotected China', inflation pressure - and why a 'peace deal' with Putin will change nothing
11. March 2022
USA: Consumer sentiment falls sharply in March. Inflation expectations jump to 5.4% from 4.9% - the highest since 1981
The ECB finally recognises that price stability is essential, not least in a 'war economy'. Christine Lagarde is losing ground in the Governing Council
10. March 2022
USA: The February inflation report was a function of the time before 'Ukraine'. Russia's invasion will only reinforce the need for tighter monetary policy
A short note on an unsuccessful Russia-Ukraine meeting - and China's irreversible support for Russia
Britain: RICS survey shows buoyant house prices in February. The question is whether a 'war economy' is positive for house prices - and positive for a 'war economy'?
9. March 2022
EU: In a 'war economy', national security investments in defence and energy infrastructure have priority at the expense of private consumption
China: Inflation is benign, but many countries now take an unfavourable view of China supporting a 'war criminal' in Moscow
8. March 2022
USA: NFIB small business survey is not yet impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This will be visible in the coming months
Germany: 'Summer was coming', according to industrial output statistics in January. 'Day zero' will trigger a huge boost to production from mid-2022 - but at the expense of private consumption
7. March 2022
A short update of 'the phoney war'
Germany: Industrial orders bounce back, but economic statistics from before 'Day Zero' are history
4. March 2022
USA: The February employment report shows a buoyant labour market - and no wage increases. The end of Covid and higher inflation seem to make people re-enter the labour force?
3. March 2022
USA: Soaring inflation seems to make inroads into service sentiment. More inflation in the pipeline - and the risk of war
Euro-zone: Producer prices skyrocketing leaves the ECB no other option than to tighten monetary policy. Anything else will prove counterproductive. We have now a 'war economy'
Turkey: Misfortunes rarely come singly. Consumer prices jump by 4.8% month-on-month in February. Ankara, Brussels and Washington are suddenly united about one goal - Putin
2. March 2022
Germany: Today's labour market report underscores why it is in the strategic interest of the ECB to tighten monetary policy
Euro-zone: Inflation jumps in February - and is headed even higher after Berlin's long-overdue policy U-turn
Geopolitical Update presentation: Europe at War – or the World at War?
1. March 2022
USA: Manufacturing sentiment improves shortly before the economy moves into a 'war economy'. Inflation remains elevated
Podcast interview with Casper Wichmann: China chose to support President Putin, who is today hated by millions of Europeans. Is everything going according to Beijing's plan?
China: PMI survey is history. Beijing has more to worry about - for instance, China's friend in Moscow, Putin
28. February 2022
Spain's inflation rate jumps to the highest since 1986. Aggressive EU spending on energy and defence infrastructure will hit debt in the Euro-zone periphery
The impact of Germany again turning into a significant military power, the positive consequences of a more united and determined EU and what lies ahead for the EU-China relationship after Beijing bet on Putin
Take profit in 'short the US stock market'
25. February 2022
EU Commission survey conducted before 'day zero' provides no information about the future - except that inflation pressure remains high
The US dispatching equipment and soldiers to Europe and European leaders seeing 'the penny dropped', mean aggressive public sector investments - and higher bond yields
24. February 2022
Today is 'day zero' for Germany - Listen to a very interesting Bild interview with CDU leader Friedrich Merz. Germany-Russia decoupling has started and dramatic rearmament will come
France: The rate of price increases continues to surprise households. EU member states will launch 'emergency spending' towards boosting energy capacity and defence
Europe moves from '1938' to '1939'. A significant boost to military spending is coming. Insightview recommends re-selling the German 30-year government bond future. A rethinking of European energy policy will come sooner rather than later due to 'new priority list'
23. February 2022
South Korea: Bank of Korea business survey makes leeway for more rate hikes. A steep increase in the export price index reveals strong imported inflation pressure in the European Union
Germany: Consumer sentiment falls again as stability vanishes. Bild Zeitung - 'Were we too nice to Kremlin?'
France: Service sentiment bounces back sharply - but inflation pressure gains momentum in the manufacturing sector despite falling energy prices
22. February 2022
Germany: Light at the end of the Covid-tunnel boosts IFO business sentiment, but geopolitics and faster-monetary-tightening will overshadow tailwinds in 2022. Companies raise output prices
Russia's invasion of Ukrainian soil will trigger a dramatic increase in EU member states' defence spending although a repetition of '1938' remains a risk. The eyes are now on Beijing
21. February 2022
Germany: Factory gates inflation accelerates as the ECB is running out of excuses. PPI report shows strong price gains excluding energy
Putin's profit from warmongering - and why Germany needs to make several fateful decisions before it is too late
18. February 2022
USA: Buoyant existing home sales statistics - but the housing market will soon face heavy headwinds from real purchasing power erosion and QT
France: The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate drops to pre-pandemic level - but the consequences of many EU policy mistakes are now hitting the shore simultaneously
17. February 2022
US Philadelphia Fed survey heralds weaker growth but inflation pressure remains elevated
Investors should use flight-to-quality rallies triggered by 'President Putin playing around with Nato and the EU' to sell the bond market
16. February 2022
Insightview recommends taking profit on the 'short German 30-year bond future' strategy
USA: Retail sales jumped in January - or was the number boosted by inflation? Import prices rose again in January
Britain: The January inflation report shows more price pressure in the pipeline, as the consequences of all European policy mistakes appear to hit the shore at the same time
Podcast interview with Joergen Delman: Xi Jinping in a year of destiny, isolation, foreign policy ambitions, Taiwan - and why Ukraine is closely followed in Beijing
China: Falling pork prices, no significant supply chain inflation and weak domestic demand put a lid on inflation. Are Chinese stocks cheap from a cyclical point of view?
15. February 2022
USA: Inflation pressure will not go away without aggressive monetary tightening - and the Federal Reserve knows all too well
Japan: Q4 GDP report benefits from a decline in Covid cases. The opposite is the case in the first quarter of 2022. 'Ukraine' is bad news for Japan
14. February 2022
What happens to the bond market if Russia invades Ukraine?
11. February 2022
USA: The boomerang is coming back making significant inroads into household sentiment, according to the University of Michigan consumer survey
Podcast interview with Sten Rynning, professor of War Studies: The EU must learn from Munich in 1938 and get used to deterrence as a political weapon
10. February 2022
USA: Inflation continues going higher. The Federal Reserve will be forced to act aggressively as more price pressure is in the pipeline
China: Monetary statistics still show only 'reluctant' easing even though the economy faces external headwinds and a bumpy domestic road
Britain: RICS house price statistics underscore why central banks are not only behind but far behind the curve
9. February 2022
Brazil: Double-digit inflation combined with Lula-victory in October will keep policy rates elevated after the election
The next leg in the bond market sell-off will not come from inflation
8. February 2022
USA: The small business survey from NFIB indicates slower growth and more price pressure, although inflation will peak in March
Japan: Service sentiment plunges in January, as households are hit by a new Covid wave and soaring inflation expectations
7. February 2022
China: Service sentiment takes a beating in January. Is President Xi Jinping's policy turning into economic headwinds?
4. February 2022
USA: Surprisingly strong employment report and soaring wage inflation underscore the extent of the Federal Reserve's huge policy mistake
Germany: Industrial orders continue to increase supported by domestic demand. Friedrich Merz makes a strong entry as new CDU leader while Scholz sees a steep decline in support
3. February 2022
USA: Service sentiment declines in January. Price inflation staying close to an all-time high bodes ill for the upcoming inflation reports
Euro-zone: Factory gates inflation jump to a new record high at the same time as service inflation gains momentum. The question is now only 'how' and not 'when' Lagarde will 'disguise' a policy shift
Turkey moves into the hyperinflation zone. Ukraine Crisis provides a tiny window of opportunity for President Erdogan to regain support from Washington and Brussels
2. February 2022
USA: ADP employment contraction as Omicron hits the shore. Nonetheless, labour shortages still prevail, according to the JOLTS survey
Euro-zone inflation hits a new record high in January as the ECB and economists continue to underestimate the impact of higher energy prices
1. February 2022
USA: The manufacturing ISM survey shows a decline in the headline index but a sharp increase in inflation pressure. Is the Federal Reserve too complacent? Yes
The Federal Reserve and ECB are warned, but they act as if they have plenty of time
Germany: Retail sales plunge in December, as inflation prevails over a strong labour market. German households no longer trust the ECB - and the rest of the EU no longer trusts Berlin
31. January 2022
Germany's January inflation report is the perfect picture of how wrong the ECB has been regarding inflation in 2021 and 2022
China: PMI surveys indicate more economic weakness. After the Winter Olympics, Beijing will use 'Taiwan' to divert public attention from the economy and cracks in the Covid strategy
28. January 2022
Euro-zone: Economic sentiment declines as inflation expectations are on the rise. Sooner or later, the penny will also drop for ECB President Lagarde if we are lucky!
Sweden: The economy expanded strongly in Q4, but forward-looking surveys indicate slowing momentum. 'Persistent inflation pressure' is now Europe's biggest problem
27. January 2022
USA: Higher inventories propel growth higher in Q4. Price deflator skyrockets far beyond market expectations
Spain: The economy benefits from the 'beginning of the end of the pandemic', but the real aftermath of Covid has just started
Federal Reserve meeting: Soon, the 'big unwind' will start. The ramifications for the 'nanny economy' could be huge, which is reflected in soaring real bond yields
26. January 2022
USA: New home sales bounce back after a weak last quarter of 2021, but the report still heralds significantly slower GDP growth by late 2022
France: Inflation continues to exceed households' expectations, as 'transitory' is now replaced by 'pent-up' price increases
25. January 2022
USA: Households are becoming downbeat about the future, as inflation expectations stay at an elevated level
USA: Philadelphia Fed's service survey shows price pressure hitting an all-time high - and a steep decline in the growth indicators
Britain: Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since 1977. Transitory? No, and the Bank of England will, therefore, act decisively
Germany: IFO sentiment bounces back, but the 'implied' growth outlook remains weak
21. January 2022
Europe is exposed to long-term, not transitory, problems. The solution is not an election-winner
Britain: Consumer confidence drops as several 'boomerangs of policy mistakes' are now coming back with a vengeance. Fiscal policy replacing monetary policy will price credit according to market risks
20. January 2022
USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey continues to show strong inflation pressure
France: Service sector business sentiment drops in December, as the country is exposed to yet another Covid wave - but manufacturing sentiment jumps
Germany's PPI report shows neither signs of 'transitory' nor a 'base effect'. The ECB is short of good excuses
19. January 2022
Britain: Inflation jumps to the highest level in 30 years. Energy capacity constraints require higher policy rates and real bond yields - and not vice versa
18. January 2022
USA: The Empire State survey continues to show strong inflation pressure
Fiscal policy taking over the role of monetary policy will price the cost of credit according to market risks. The 'green transition' will require high private savings
Britain: Soaring unfilled vacancies will lead to a significantly lower unemployment rate - and faster monetary tightening
17. January 2022
China: The economy ended 2021 on a weak note caused by a very weak property market. PBOC cuts borrowing costs
15. January 2022
Podcast interview with Morten Springborg, C Worldwide Asset Management: Europe's green transition will create several energy crises in the coming years
14. January 2022
USA: Household sentiment remains depressed despite the strongest labour market for decades. Consumers' one and five-year inflation expectations increase again
The Outlook 2022 presentation is now available
China: The export sector was the growth engine in 2021. This will not be enough in 2022 due to omicron and significantly tighter monetary conditions in the United States and Europe
13. January 2022
USA: The next leg in the inflation story will come from wage pressure and service inflation
12. January 2022
USA: Consumer price inflation hits the highest level since June 1982. Getting inflation expectations back into the bottle requires aggressive monetary tightening
China: Beijing is in monetary 'stimulus mode', but this will turn out to be a slow process
China: Slow domestic demand, regulatory measures and falling pork prices put a lid on inflation in December. Has omicron made a hole in the zero-tolerance wall?
11. January 2022
Brazil: Inflation seems to have peaked, but a prudent central bank will hike policy rates again in February
USA: Small business sentiment survey shows wage inflation acceleration. The case for a first-rate-hike of 0.5% is on the rise
Japan: A weak recovery and low inflation. Tokyo used all ammo in the last two decades
7. January 2022
USA: The jobless rate dropping below the 'natural rate of unemployment' makes it difficult to fill job offers. Instead, this creates wage inflation
Euro-zone: Inflation continues higher as the underlying problems will not go away in 2022. A reluctant ECB president Lagarde 'beyond the reach of rational argument' will be forced to tighten
6. January 2022
USA: Service sentiment drops from an all-time low, but service price inflation stays at the highest level since 2005
US Federal Reserve Minutes report shows that the central bank has lost its way. Policymakers move from 'the first rate hike in 2024' to 'monetary tightening coming sooner rather than later'
Germany: Industrial orders bounced back in November but headwinds gain momentum. Russia, omicron, and faster-than-expected Federal Reserve tightening
5. January 2022
USA: JOLTS survey shows a sharp jump in the quit rate, which will lead to strong wage gains in the first half of 2022
France: Consumers are in a much better position than in neighbouring Germany, so far, but a huge public sector debt could become an issue after the upcoming election
4. January 2022
USA: ISM manufacturing index declines in December - and inflation pressure declines as the anatomy of inflation changes
Germany: Unfilled vacancies hit a new all-time high in December as cost pressure increases
China: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back. Omicron gaining a foothold could turn into a game-changer as the mainland is 'unprotected'
3. January 2022
The European cocktail: Higher inventories and falling purchasing power will be disinflationary in Q2 - but does not prevent monetary tightening
Turkey: The Erdoganomics hurricane continues to devastate the economy. Inflation moves into the hyperinflation zone
The second inflation wave: Delayed pent-up price increases will trigger profound monetary tightening - and, consequently, slightly lower inflation in the second half of 2022
21. December 2021
The last day of updates is on December 21. Insightview will be back on January 3
Germany: Consumer sentiment plunges as households face multiple headwinds. Will Christian Lindner opting for Nagel instead of Scnabel as the next President of the Bundesbank make a difference?
20. December 2021
Britain: Factory gates inflation showing no signs of slowing hits industrial output. Natural gas prices soar to a new all-time high
Podcast interview with Peter Viggo Jakobsen from the Royal Defence College: Geopolitical risks in 2022
17. December 2021
Germany: The economy moves deeper into a downswing, as public opinion turns against the ECB. Soon, the penny will even drop for ECB's Lagarde
16. December 2021
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey details show signs of 'demand destruction'. Short and long-term demand indicators fall sharply in December
