Forgot login
Please fill in your e-mail adress below. We will send you a link with details on recovering your account.


Click image to close window.
1. April 2019
USA: February retail sales report boosts the risk of zero growth in Q1
Europe: The rebound is long in coming. Swiss manufacturing PMI index falls sharply close to contraction
The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey shows a steep decline in manufacturing sentiment
China: Both leading manufacturing PMI surveys show a sharp rebound in sentiment in March
29. March 2019
USA: New home sales report is still not a harbinger of recession. This also makes it difficult for the Fed to change monetary policy
Spain is riding high on Rajoy's reforms, but the foundation for a stronger far-right is on the rise
Japan: Industrial output increases more than expected in February, but the outlook remains gloomy
28. March 2019
There were no Daily Macro updates on Thursday, March 28
27. March 2019
USA: The trade deficit will decline in the first quarter as a consequence of front-loading in 2018. A 'sustainable' trade deal seems highly unlikely
Italy: Manufacturing sentiment continues to contract. Berlin-Paris hypocrisy will keep Rome on path of even stronger China-Italy co-operation
China: A sharp decline in corporate profits reflects a weaker economy than perceived by global investors
26. March 2019
USA: Consumer confidence plunges in March. The share of households seeing plentiful-of-jobs also falls sharply
USA: Housing starts and Case-Shiller reports continue to show weakness in the housing sector
France: Business sentiment shows only tentative signs of growth stabilisation in March. 'Money talks' as Xi Jinping visits France
A short note on anecdotal evidence from China: Deterioration or Stabilisation?
25. March 2019
USA: Dallas Fed manufacturing survey shows no signs of a sustainable bounce in sentiment. The capital expenditure plans index plunges
Brazil: The news flow erodes Bolsonaro's reform process
Germany: IFO survey shows a sharp bounce in service and retailer sentiment, but manufacturing optimism continues to decline
22. March 2019
USA: Existing home sales skyrocketed in February as households benefit from falling mortgage yields
Morning Briefing email problem solved
Japan: Official inflation is benign even though households' inflation expectations hit the highest level since July 2015
21. March 2019
USA: The details in the Philadelphia Fed survey boost the probability of recession in H1-2020 which is reinforced by six more months of Fed balance sheet reduction
Britain: Economic statistics continue to defy 'hell breaks loose' scenario
Berlin and Paris act as China turns into a threat to EU's 'single market' 
20. March 2019
China: Taiwanese and other 'activity indicators' do not show signs of stronger growth on the mainland
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey slowly follows the same path as the Diffusion Index, which boosts the risk of recession in H1
19. March 2019
Weak US factory orders in January - There are surprisingly few signs of a rebound in sentiment in the regional surveys
Germany: ZEW survey shows tentative signs that the economy might have hit rock bottom - Belt-and-Road-Initiative poses a 'threat' to German and French champions
18. March 2019
Japanese trade report offers no hope yet that China could soon 'save the world'
By Invitation: Order in Xi Jinping's Parliament
15. March 2019
China: Monthly house price inflation continues to slow but Beijing and local authorities will prevent outright price decline
14. March 2019
USA: The New home sales report in January does not give cause for recession concern in 2019
China: January-February economic statistics show weakness - The risk of lower residential house prices is on the rise unless PBOC acts more aggressively
13. March 2019
USA: Durable goods orders report still shows no signs of an upcoming recession
Euro-zone: Industrial output bounces back in January after a significant decline in inventories - The outlook deteriorates as Rome, Portugal and Malta opt for China
Japan: Machinery orders report boosts the probability of a recession in H1. China cannot help Japanese exporters because of only 'reluctant' easing measures
12. March 2019
Brazil: Surprisingly subdued inflation supports the currency, but Bolsonaro's temper poses a risk to the planned economic reforms
USA: Benign inflation continues to support US households' real purchasing power
USA: Small business sentiment survey shows tentative signs of a rebound. It will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to avoid the impact of quantitative tightening
11. March 2019
US January retail sales report surprises to the upside but an already weak December report was revised down
Germany: Industrial report disappoints in January. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer challenges Merkel and Paris with her own political agenda
Turkey plunges officially into recession in Q4. The outlook remains gloomy
China: Weak monetary expansion is partly because the hands of monetary decision-makers are tied up by the trade negotiations
8. March 2019
USA: A weak non-farm payroll number was expected but not that weak. Wage inflation is still on the rise and the unemployment rate fell in February
Germany: Industrial orders plunge as demand declines across the board in January
China: January-February trade report shows the boomerang 'frontloading in 2018' is now coming back with a vengeance
ECB press conference is a reminder to investors that the economy is on the same path as Japan. Political inaction in Brussels and Berlin make the periphery turn to the One Belt One Road Initiative
7. March 2019
Euro-zone: Q4 GDP details show a significant negative contribution from inventories
Japan: The Cabinet Office's 'Diffusion Index' heralds a deeper and prolonged period of contraction or recession
6. March 2019
USA: The trade deficit inflating is not a huge surprise considering the current policy mix. The ISM survey heralds an even higher deficit in H1
USA: Robust ADP employment growth in February. The growth outlook indicated by the ISM surveys heralds robust employment growth in the first half of 2019
Australia: Growth disappoints in Q4. The risk of economic contraction in Q1 is on the rise
5. March 2019
USA: Service sentiment jumps in February. ISM orders index skyrocketed to the highest level since 2005. The survey will keep the Fed biased towards tightening in 2019
Euro-zone: Lower inflation supports retail sales in January but the 'window of relief' is closing because of a higher oil price
China: Caixin service index falls sharply as Beijing lowers growth target. Beijing plans to fight the unavoidable
4. March 2019
Euro-zone: Benign inflation at the factory gates will make ECB's Draghi talk the euro lower as politicians will fail to take action
Turkey: Disturbingly high inflation and no signs of an economic rebound could trigger a new lira sell-off ahead of the upcoming local elections
1. March 2019
USA: The rebound in the ISM manufacturing sentiment index failed to continue in February. A steep decline in the production index should give rise to concern
European and US business sentiment: A short-lived rebound followed by the same problems as in November 2018
China: Caixin manufacturing survey shows a strong rebound in the domestic orders index
Japan: The unemployment rate has hit rock bottom as the economy will contract in the first half of 2019
Highly recommended: Podcast about the future of the European Union. Interview with thematic specialist Morten Springborg from CWorldWide
28. February 2019
USA: Surprisingly robust Q4 GDP growth report is also supported by the underlying details
Sweden: Strong net-exports boost growth in the last quarter of 2018
China: Manufacturing PMI index drops again as export sentiment takes a beating but there are tentative signs of stimulus measures
27. February 2019
India-Pakistan conflict escalation challenges US foreign policy
EU business and consumer survey shows tentative signs of 'stabilisation'
Italy has all the ingredients to trigger a serious crisis. The ECB is no longer there to help
A short update of the global outlook: The stock market could soon face the same situation as in November 2018
26. February 2019
USA: Housing starts report underscores very weak December-January. Federal Reserve U-turn will create short-term rebound which will be followed by two more rate hikes in 2019
France: Consumer confidence bounces back strongly as Yellow Vests demonstrations disappear and the labour market is strong. Inflation expectations soar
Germany: The economy faces the risk of 'technical recession' but households are still exposed to tailwinds
25. February 2019
China-USA trade deal: The interpretation and what comes next?
22. February 2019
Germany: A disappointing IFO survey will add more fuel to CDU's 'Germany First' strategy
China: House prices continued to increase in January, but the outlook is cloudy as 'excess supply' is on the rise
21. February 2019
USA: Durable goods orders are forecast to contract in the first quarter of 2019, but no signs yet of a collapse in corporate spending
USA: A steep decline in the Philadelphia Fed headline index shows profound manufacturing weakness in the first half of 2019, but no signs of recession
China: Weak PBOC balance sheet data raises doubt about the strength of the bank lending report in January
France: The economy is supported by improving domestic sentiment, which is just enough to offset global headwinds
20. February 2019
Turkey: Consumer confidence continuing to decline spells trouble for the lira
Japan: Frontloading in 2018 has turned into a boomerang coming back with a vengeance in 2019
Euro-zone: Dutch consumer confidence declining to the lowest level since February 2015 bodes ill for European private consumption in H1
19. February 2019
A short note on the US-China trade negotiations: Do not underestimate Beijing's long-term determination
Germany: ZEW survey shows no signs of a rebound. Berlin faces reality check
Britain: The economy performs relatively well in comparison with other EU countries but long-term risks are building. A comeback to the 'Social Democratic Party'?
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey takes a significant beating in February
18. February 2019
Japan: Tokyo is forced to walk further out on the ice floe
15. February 2019
USA: Consumer sentiment bouncing back brings some relief after a disappointing December retail sales report
USA: Manufacturing output falls sharply in January. The best forward-looking indicators are harbingers of a rebound in April or May
China: Distorted January data shows only 'tentative signs' of stronger lending
China: Inflation report is a reflection of a very weak economy. A trade deal is needed but Beijing cannot afford to make significant concessions
14. February 2019
USA: Surprisingly weak retail sales report raises several new questions in the stock market. Too weak consumer spending overshadows Federal Reserve sitting tight
Turkey: Industrial output contracts at the fastest rate since 2009. The risk of a deep recession is on the rise
Japan: The economy bounces back in Q4 but it fails to recoup economic contraction seen in Q3 
China: Lunar New Year distorted trade report continues to show underlying weakness
Germany: The economy escapes recession as growth was zero in Q4. The outlook is gloomy and Berlin has no strategy
13. February 2019
USA: Moderate headline inflation provides a boost to workers' real purchasing power. A weak trade deal will face severe domestic criticism
Brazil: Buoyant business and consumer sentiment remain to be seen in real economic activity. Hospitalised President trigger an internal power struggle
Euro-zone: Industrial production plunges at the fastest rate since 2009. The political response should give rise to concern
South Korea: Unemployment rate jumps to the highest level since 2009
12. February 2019
USA: NFIB small business six-month outlook index plunges to the lowest level since the Presidential election in November 2016
11. February 2019
Britain: The economy barely expanded in the last quarter of 2018. The outlook for the first half of 2019 deteriorates
Germany: Tensions are on the rise in Berlin as SPD moves to the left and CDU turns to the right
8. February 2019
Brazil: Inflation remains surprisingly benign in January. Pension draft plans to raise the minimum retirement age significantly to 65
Italy: The recession will be more profound and longer
Global: The worst political situation since WWII
Japan: The economy faces an increasing risk of technical recession in H1
7. February 2019
Spain: Industrial output plunges in December. Brussels sponsored fiscal stimulus plan is highly likely ahead of the EP elections
Germany: Manufacturing sector has moved into the 'contraction zone'. Policy-mistakes are, not surprisingly, in the pipeline
6. February 2019
USA: November trade deficit with China hits a new record high. A 'temporary' trade deal is highly likely but not sustainable
Germany: Industrial orders fell in December at the fastest rate since 2012. State capitalism appears to be the answer to economic headwinds
Highly recommended: Podcast about China - Interview with Klaus Anker Petersen, Brand House, about investment opportunities in digitising China - 31 min
5. February 2019
USA: ISM service index declines more than market expectations, but a soaring employment index indicates robust labour demand
Sweden: More evidence of an abrupt decline in economic momentum adds more 'Riksbank risk' to the currency
Australia: Growth slowdown gains momentum ahead of federal elections
4. February 2019
A second short update of the Outlook 2019: Complacency prevails in the money and bond market
Turkey: Stubbornly high inflation spells trouble for President Erdogan ahead of local elections in March  
1. February 2019
USA: Manufacturing ISM index bounces back. Production index skyrockets
USA: A very strong January employment report, but the December data was revised down sharply. Low wage inflation
Sweden: PMI survey heralds weak European growth. Broad-based domestic weakness makes a 'fundamentally' cheap Swedish currency vulnerable
China: Caixin PMI survey is a precise reflection of anecdotal evidence from the mainland. PBOC could cut policy rates within the next two weeks
31. January 2019
USA: New home sales bouncing back sharply in November provides relief to the stock market
Brazil: Households are turning highly upbeat about future employment. A cheap currency provides some 'protection' to Brazilian assets
Euro-zone: Growth slows significantly in Q4. Italy plunges into recession
China: Beijing's fiscal and monetary stimulus measures fail to trigger a sharp rebound in manufacturing business sentiment
30. January 2019
USA: ADP Employment Report showing a very strong labour market keeps the Federal Reserve on a path of monetary normalisation
EU business and consumer survey shows steeper-than-expected decline in Euro-zone sentiment, but the details are 'less downbeat'
France: Q4 GDP growth was better than expected because of the country's low exposure to foreign demand
'Sputnik moment' in the United States will make it an uphill struggle to save the relationship between Washington and Beijing
29. January 2019
USA: Consumer confidence drops sharply in January, but households continue to see a strong labour market
France: Consumer confidence bounces back as inflation expectations plunge. Yellow Vests 'party' hits the far-right and far-left
Australia: Business confidence plunges
28. January 2019
Why Venezuela matters in the new Cold War era
Euro-zone: ECB's bank lending survey is a harbinger of significantly slower growth
China: Corporate profit takes a beating in December. PBOC's chief economist criticises the current economic policy
25. January 2019
Brazil: The corporate sector and households have given President Bolsonaro a warm welcome. The real is cheap
Turkey: Economic confidence index continues to herald recession in Q1 as President Erdogan continues to fish in troubled waters
Germany: A steep decline in the IFO expectations index is a harbinger of negative growth in the first half of 2019
A short update of the Outlook 2019: What comes next?
23. January 2019
There will be no updates on January 24
USA: The regional manufacturing Richmond Fed index bounces back in January. Corporate spending plans remain intact
France: Business sentiment stabilises as President Macron 'makes peace' with the Yellow Vests
22. January 2019
USA: Existing home sales decline much faster than predicted. House price inflation declines again to the lowest level since 2012
Britain: The labour market remains tight. A second referendum would make the Bank of England significantly behind the curve
Dutch consumer confidence index falling sharply to the lowest level since 2015 spells trouble for the Euro-zone economy in 2019
South Korea: The details in the Q4 GDP report provide a gloomy outlook. The won is at risk!
21. January 2019
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows a steep decline in manufacturing sentiment, but the service sentiment index stays at an elevated level
Taiwanese export orders plunge in December - European demand plummets
China records the slowest growth rate since 2009 - Has the central bank made the first steps towards QE?
18. January 2019
USA: The political mess in Washington gains the upper hand in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey
USA: A sharp increase in manufacturing output was caused by a steep increase in motor vehicles and parts output
How to subscribe to Daily Macro podcasts on your tablet or smartphone
Japan: Falling inflation will benefit households' real purchasing power, but growth outlook remains weak as corporate spending declines
17. January 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows a rebound in manufacturing sentiment, but the employment index falls
Britain: Real estate agents survey herald a steep decline in house prices in 2019
16. January 2019
Podcast: Interview with Professor Joergen Delman about China, Xi Jinping, the intrusion of the state in the private sector and other issues
Britain: Inflation declines in December but households' inflation expectations jump to the highest level since 1994 - A second referendum is highly likely
China: Newly-built house price increases in tier-1 cities boost the national house price index although this is not a reflection of the real situation
15. January 2019
USA: The Empire State manufacturing index plunges in January as the economy faces several man-made headwinds
Brazil: The election of Jair Bolsonaro boosting business and consumer sentiment gives rise to raise the growth forecast
China: Weak monetary statistics underscore why Beijing is expected to launch aggressive fiscal and monetary easing measures
Euro-zone trade surplus declines but hits a new record high with the United States - US ambassador threatens German companies with Nordstream2 sanctions
14. January 2019
Turkey moves deeper into recession - Industrial production falls sharply in November
Euro-zone: Industrial production drops at the fastest annual rate since November 2012 - The probability of Brussels-sponsored fiscal expansion is on the rise
China: Exports and imports fell sharply in December as the aftermath of front-loading export orders slowly emerges - Xi Jinping faces domestic criticism
11. January 2019
USA: A sharp decline in energy prices pulls headline inflation lower to the benefit of households real purchasing power but the liquidity situation will remain tight in 2019
Italy: A sharp decline in industrial output will intensify tensions with Brussels as Rome will soon need a scapegoat
Spain joins the bandwagon of falling industrial output; Vox turns into a significant domestic political player
10. January 2019
France: Industrial production takes a beating a day after the leading consumer confidence index plunged
China: A steep decline in producer prices is a reflection of a deteriorating growth environment
Euro-zone survey shows a sharp decline in business and consumer sentiment in December
7. January 2019
There will be no updates on January 8 and 9
A short note on the possibility of a trade compromise between Washington and Beijing
USA: ISM service index falls sharply in December making monetary policy a delicate balancing act after a strong employment report
Germany: Industrial orders decline at the fastest rate since July 2012
4. January 2019
A very strong US employment report keeps the Federal Reserve on track for more rate hikes in 2019
A short note on the PBoC's decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio by 100 basis points
China: Caixin service index improves but remains close to the lowest since 2009 - Beijing 'talks' about easing but more aggressive measures will soon be needed
3. January 2019
USA: The manufacturing ISM index plunges in December to the lowest level since November 2016 - The orders and production indexes take a significant beating
A robust but 'lagging' labour market will still play a significant role for the Federal Reserve
Turkey: A stronger lira reduces inflation, but it is too late to prevent recession ahead of local elections
A short note on a sharply higher yen
2. January 2019
A steep decline in the leading Swedish PMI index is a harbinger of significant weakness in Europe's manufacturing sector in H1-2019
The 'world sitting on a powder keg' - January 8-9, 2019
China: Manufacturing headline index drops into the contraction zone - the economy faces significant headwinds in H1
A few thoughts after a wild Christmas to New Year stock market session
21. December 2018
Insightview wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year
US durable goods orders statistics and forward-looking 'capex' indicators are not yet providing evidence of an upcoming recession, according to many investors
Euro-zone: A sharp decline in Dutch consumer confidence in December is a harbinger of a drop in the Euro-zone consumer confidence index
France: Manufacturing sentiment declines to the lowest level since November 2016; private consumption takes a beating
20. December 2018
USA: The underlying details in the Philadelphia Fed survey support Powell's monetary stance of more rate hikes in 2019 - but the survey was not a harbinger of recession, at least not yet
USA: The Federal Reserve ignoring President Trump will have global ramifications - The White House made policy-mistakes - not the central bank
19. December 2018
US existing home sales report surprises to the upside - but the uptrend in house prices is expected to weaken significantly in H1
Japan: The export sector could face severe headwinds in 2019 as geopolitics will play an even larger role than in 2018
18. December 2018
USA: Stronger-than-expected housing starts report, but the outlook is deteriorating, according to the NAHB survey
Germany: IFO survey is a harbinger of a significant growth slow-down in 2019 - the probability of EU-sponsored fiscal expansion is on the rise
Is China really 'punishing' Washington by selling US treasuries? No, Beijing has plenty of other 'defensive' reasons to reduce its holdings
17. December 2018
US Empire State index falls sharply - The White House's policy mistake cornered the Federal Reserve
China: Robust house price report disguises clouds on the horizon in 2019
14. December 2018
USA: Strong retail sales report keeps the Federal Reserve on track for a rate hike next week - and 'more rate hikes' in 2019
What is the agenda of President Xi Jinping? 'The opening and closing of Chinese politics'
China: Disappointing economic statistics will force Beijing to act more decisively - the yuan is at risk
13. December 2018
Brazil - President Bolsonaro needs strong links to the military when  he launches pension reform just a global growth slows
Chinese policy-makers could soon be forced to react more aggressively to prevent a sharp decline in growth
12. December 2018
Euro-zone: Weak industrial output caused by several factors - Fiscal stimulus measures ahead of EP elections could soon be on the agenda
A short note on yet another Tory leadership challenge in Britain
11. December 2018
USA: Higher core PPI inflation does not change the fact that headline inflation has peaked - Small business sentiment falls sharply
China: Still no signs of faster credit expansion in the latest monetary statistics - Car sales contract
Britain: Wages increasing at the fastest rate since 2008 make the task of the BoE much harder
Turkey records a current account surplus in October as the economy contracts and imports plunge
10. December 2018
China: 'Frontloading' in 2018 will come back with a vengeance in 2019 - QE by late 2019 remains part of the storyboard
7. December 2018
A 'benign' US labour market report will not prevent the Fed from raising rates in December, but a more dovish central bank statement will provide a better level to sell the stock market
The Euro-zone is 'supposed to' be in a good growth position - but the political risk will play a much larger role in 2019 - Fiscal expansion in H2?
China: Foreign exchange reserves report and PBoC balance sheet show that Beijing finally tries to halt the decline of the yuan after having sponsored the opposite outcome
Germany: Industrial production disappoints again on the 'CDU decision day' - Both leading candidates could prove highly divisive
6. December 2018
USA: Strong ISM service survey does not make the task of the Federal Reserve any easier
USA: The trade deficit with China hits a new all-time high
The Chart Storyboard 2019 - An 'early release' of the charts
Japan: Manufacturing and service sentiment is holding up surprisingly well, according to the Reuters Tankan survey - This contradicts still the 'Diffusion Index' predicting sharp economic contraction
The trade war: Suspiciousness is on the rise as the world now has two superpowers - Dramatic escalation as the daughter of Huawei founder is arrested
The trade war: Suspiciousness is on the rise as the world now has two superpowers - Dramatic escalation as the daughter of Huawei founder is arrested
5. December 2018
USA: The yield curve matters, after all!
Strong Swedish PMI surveys could give rise to second thoughts when it comes to getting 'too negative' on Europe
China: Caixin service index bounces back sharply in November but after a weak October survey - 'Time' is not on President Trump's side; Beijing has plenty of time
4. December 2018
Spain: Strong labour market and economic outlook, but the political centre shrinking rapidly spells trouble, as the far-right gains strongly in regional elections
3. December 2018
USA: A strong manufacturing ISM survey provides no reason for the Federal Reserve to delay the monetary tightening process
Turkey: Inflation falls sharply; President Erdogan has much to thank the central bank for
China: Beijing's stimulus efforts are not visible in the Caixin and the NBS PMI surveys - Contradictory policy goals hit steel prices
Trade war: The 'temporary truce' only delays a full-blown trade war; US opioid crisis is also part of the deal in 'a strange inversion of history‌'
29. November 2018
There will be no updates on Friday, November 30
Sweden and Switzerland: Two more negative growth surprises in the third quarter
Euro-zone: Economic sentiment is holding up surprisingly well; no signs yet of falling inflation expectations despite a sharp decline in the oil price
Turkey: Sentiment bounces back after the central bank raised policy rates against the advice of Mr Erdogan
USA: Surprise, surprise, not; the Federal Reserve turns dovish, but monetary policy remains the same
28. November 2018
USA: A sharp decline in 'new home sales' combined with other 'long-term' leading indicators are pointing towards recession in Q4-2019 or Q1-2020
At first glance, ECB monetary aggregates show no signs of a slowing economy, but.....
USA: No revision to the Q3 GDP headline number, but change-in-inventories revised up and private consumption revised down
Germany: The GfK consumer climate index still indicates tailwinds for households in the very near future - but the medium-term outlook deteriorates
27. November 2018
USA: Consumer confidence declines in November but to a far lesser extent than outlined by the UoM survey
The 'Italian problem' could get worse in 2019, as the economy shows evidence of slowing - the League sees strong support in the latest opinion poll
A general overview of the global macroeconomic and political situation - December
France: Consumer confidence index falls sharply as households see higher inflation and a weaker labour market 
USA: Dallas Fed survey shows significant weakness - capital expenditure index plunges
26. November 2018
Germany: Manufacturing sentiment falls sharply in November as the CDU will soon vote for 'mini-Merkel' or a market-oriented Merz
Germany: Manufacturing sentiment falls sharply in November as the CDU will soon vote for 'mini-Merkel' or a market-oriented Merz
23. November 2018
‌‌The CDU's choice between 'mini-Merkel' - status quo - or a more market-oriented Friedrich Merz
Germany: Hillary Clinton and CDU's leadership contest - Signs of significant 'frontloading' in the Q3 GDP report details
22. November 2018
France: Manufacturing and service sentiment stabilises in November, but inflation at the factory gates is on the rise; 'yellow west' roadblocks continue
Japan: 'Normalising' inflation shows that the economy no longer needs an unusual monetary policy
21. November 2018
USA: A weak durable goods orders report does not change a positive short-term growth outlook for corporate spending, but the best 'long-term' indicators show weakness
A short note on the oil price - including a chart update
20. November 2018
USA: The housing market, an early-indicator, could soon pay the costs of having launched tax cuts late in the economic cycle
Trade war: 'Sputnik moments' boost the risk of a full-blown trade war
France: President Macron is doing all the right thing, but he might not be able to prevent 'the storming of the Bastille'
19. November 2018
USA: NAHB index fell sharply in November caused by higher prices and interest rates
16. November 2018
USA: Industrial output should continue to show steady growth in the very near future, but clouds are on the horizon in 2019
Turkey: Manufacturing output plunges in September - the corporate sector's high foreign debt level means that the central bank is walking a delicate balancing act
15. November 2018
USA: Soft retail sales report in October, but 'lagging' consumer spending should continue to see tailwinds in the first half of 2019
US Philadelphia Fed survey shows a steep decline in the headline as well as the six-month outlook index - Price pressure remains at an elevated level
Britain: PM May is forced to call a new parliamentary election - A second Brexit referendum would be seen as an 'undemocratic' outcome and could have long-lasting political consequences
A short note on possible USA-China trade talks: 'Free trade in our time' deal is needed by both sides to gain time - 'Too much economic integration with China compromises national security' - report
China: House price inflation at the highest level since July 2017 - 'If they tell you it is a bear market, it is bull'
14. November 2018
A short note on the US October budget deficit: Revenues decline and expenditures increase
Japan: Several natural disasters caused the economy to contract in the third quarter - the outlook is 'cloudy'
Germany: The economy contracted in Q3 despite 'strong fundamentals' - more clouds on the horizon in H1-2019
China: No signs of 'growth panic', but Maersk CEO indirectly explains why the situation could change significantly in H1-2019
13. November 2018
Germany: ZEW survey shows the dark clouds will not disappear - ECB's Praet turns dovish
China: Monetary statistics show weak credit expansion - 'QE with Chinese characteristics' could be a possible outcome in H2-2019
USA: Small business sentiment survey shows no signs of weakness - but the second leg of 'Trumponomics' will soon create headwinds
China: Fiscal data provides insight into a weakening economy - central government revenues rose at the weakest pace since 2009
A short note on the US dollar - the same forces are still at play
12. November 2018
The case for significant headwinds in 2019 is building: Political instability in the United States and Europe and Xi Jinping's lukewarm support for economic reforms
9. November 2018
USA: Households, a 'lagging indicator', will not see the 'costs of Trumponomics' until Q2 - but they will soon see the first dark clouds on the horizon
USA: Producer price inflation jumps in October as the costs of Trumponomics hit the shores - Higher inflation and slower growth in H1-2019
France: The growth outlook is deteriorating, as the economy faces several headwinds
China: Moderate inflation in October - Xi Jinping adjusts his 'lukewarm' attitude toward the private sector, as the risk of significantly slower growth in H1-2019 increases
8. November 2018
Germany running at full capacity utilisation pulls the trade surplus lower - CDU, CSU and SPD continue to see support decline to a new record low
Japan: A highly ambiguous data flow - Upbeat Reuters Tankan survey and a steep decline in core machinery orders
China: The trade war continues to fuel growth on the mainland; the boomerang will soon come back with a vengeance
7. November 2018
Brazil is headed towards a 'cold turkey' as 'Milton Friedman' enters the stage
China: Foreign exchange reserves decline in October - A steeper decline could be in the pipeline in 2019 as growth slows
Japan: The diffusion index falling to 2009-level is a harbinger of a sharp manufacturing contraction in H1-2019
A short note on the outcome of the US mid-term elections: US-dollar, yields and stock market
6. November 2018
Germany: Non-Euro-zone orders put a drag on industrial orders in September - IFO survey shows declining momentum going into 2019
Unplugged 'Travel Notes: Beijing reinforcing the use of 'big data' puts Europe in a quandary
5. November 2018
USA: ISM service survey continues to herald robust growth going into 2019
Turkey: Inflation hits a new record high - Ankara inclined to boost fiscal stimulus poses a risk to the lira - The latest lira strength leaves no room for policy mistakes
China: Caixin PMI service index takes a beating, as the economy could be exposed to a 'double-whammy' in 2019
26. October 2018
China trip: October 26 - November 2
25. October 2018
USA: Corporate spending remains on a steady upward trend, but there are tentative signs of 'upcoming' weakness in several regional surveys
Germany: IFO survey is a harbinger of slower growth going into the first quarter of 2019 - Next step in the political mess is Hessen
Spain: The unemployment rate declines to the lowest level since 2008, but unemployment could again be on the rise by mid-2019
24. October 2018
USA: One of the best recession indicators, new home sales, plunged in September
France: Manufacturing sentiment declines sharply to the lowest level since November 2016
23. October 2018
Britain could be hit by several headwinds in 2019
Turkey: Consumer confidence declines to the lowest level since November 2008 - 'Investigator' Erdogan will not help Turkey
A general overview of the global macroeconomic and political situation - November
Germany: Producer price inflation hits the highest level since December 2011 - The sponsors behind the stock and bond market rally have disappeared
This is a test
22. October 2018
Taiwan exports orders report show no decisive signs of slower global growth
China: Home prices continue to increase - Vice-president Liu He reassuring  'private enterprises' on the mainland boosts the stock market 
19. October 2018
US existing home sales: Higher interest rates create headwinds in the housing market, but the affordability index is expected to stabilise because of higher wages
China: Q3 GDP growth in line with market expectations, but the risk of a significant growth slowdown in H1 is high - tighter capital control measures could impact emerging markets, in particular
18. October 2018
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey continues to paint a picture of a strong economy - the employment index increased
Japan: Exports show the first decline since 2016 - The BoJ no longer walks as it talks
17. October 2018
US housing starts-permits report disappoints as higher bond yields put a drag on mortgage applications
(Corrected) China: Social financing jumps in September boosted by a change in the PBoCs calculation
Chinese holdings of US Treasuries decline - but Beijing is not (cannot) 'weaponise' its holdings of US assets - The divide is, however, irreversible
16. October 2018
USA: Manufacturing output is forecast to accelerate going into Q1-2019
Germany: ZEW sentiment index falls sharply in October as investors eat humble pie
Britain: Wage inflation hits the highest level since 2009 - the economy shows classic 'late-cycle' signs as the 'costs of expansion' are on the rise
China: Moderate inflation in September, but 'actual' inflation pressure is on the rise, which poses a risk to the new policy of easing
15. October 2018
USA: Weak retail sales headline number, but the retail control number heralds strong GDP growth in Q3
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey continues to show robust manufacturing growth, but service sentiment declines sharply - 'front-loading' of foreign trade poses a risk to H1-2019 growth
Bavarian state election: 'It is not the economy - Dummkopf' - Hessen election could trigger a CDU revolt against Merkel
12. October 2018
USA: UoM consumer sentiment index stays at an elevated level - The Fed is forced to move monetary policy from 'accommodative' to 'slightly restrictive' even if president Trump diagnoses such a policy as 'crazy'
Euro-zone: 'Moderate' manufacturing output in 2018, but there are clouds on the horizon - Berlin makes significant cuts to the 2018 and 2019 growth forecast
China: Strong trade report shows visible signs of 'frontloading growth' - Beijing will still add more stimulus to the economy
11. October 2018
A short note on China: Frontloading could lead to significant growth moderation in H1-2019 - More anecdotal evidence of possible oversupply in the housing market
The Federal Reserve Chairman is not crazy, but one sometimes wonders whether.....
10. October 2018
USA: Stable PPI inflation in September - but real bond yields are too low considering strong and accelerating growth and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet contraction
Italy: Industrial output declines by less than expected in August - but this does not change the fact that Rome faces an uncertain future with few policy options left
Japan: Machinery orders jump as the economy is running out of idle capacity, but the 'Diffusion Index' tells a different story for H1-2019
9. October 2018
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey shows no signs of slowing demand for workers - The share of companies raising wages hits a record high
Germany: The August trade report still reflects an economy running out of capacity - export data surprisingly weak as 'front-loading' was expected
8. October 2018
Germany: Capacity problems put a lid on manufacturing output - Trump's 'veto-trade-deals' pose an increasing risk to European exporters
China cutting banks' reserve requirement will reinforce downward pressure on the yuan against the US-dollar - The risk of a 'global split' is on the rise!
5. October 2018
USA: A mixed employment report in September will not change the fact that the Fed is on a firm path of monetary tightening - Unemployment rate hits lowest level since 1969 
Japan: Manufacturing indicators show strong demand but weak output - Workers' real cash earnings are again on the decline
Germany: Industrial orders bounce back in August, but inflation at the factory gates gains momentum
4. October 2018
A short note on yesterday's robust ISM service and soaring bond yields in USA and Japan
3. October 2018
USA: Service ISM index hits an all-time high in September indicating growth higher than 4% - the employment index skyrockets - overheating?
USA: The current economic expansion is at a crossroad - Demand for workers increases at the same time as supply is shrinking
Euro-zone: Soft retail sales in August - private consumption faces headwinds in 2019 
Turkey: CPI inflation skyrockets to 25%, as Erdogan undermines the impact of monetary tightening
2. October 2018
Brazil: The risk of a 'double-dip' is on the rise
Euro-zone: Higher energy prices boost inflation at the factory gates - significant up-revision of the July report
NAFTA2 - The world is headed towards 'managed trade' dictated by the strongest military powers
1. October 2018
USA: ISM survey continues to paint a robust outlook for the manufacturing survey - inflation pressure declines in September
Turkey faces a deep recession - and President Erdogan has no reliable friends to help him - not even in Berlin
Euro-zone unemployment rate hits the lowest level since November 2008, as signs of a labour shortage gain momentum
Spain: Inflation expectations at the highest level since 2012 make an inroad into households' real purchasing power
Japan: Quarterly Tankan survey disappoints, but it remains a harbinger of robust growth in H2 and a very tight labour market
China's PMI surveys: September-October growth may still be robust, but the risk of significant Q1 weakness is on the rise
28. September 2018
China: Stimulus measures hit the shores before the negative impact of the trade war
German unemployment rate hitting the lowest level since 1981 could prove a liability to Italy
Japan: Industrial output report is much better than outlined by the headline number, but the economy is on a crossroad
27. September 2018
USA: The best forward-looking indicators herald robust durable goods orders, but the Goldilocks scenario of 'strong growth-low inflation' has changed to a scenario of 'lower growth-higher inflation and higher interest rates'
Germany: Inflation hits the highest level since 2012 - domestic factors will drive inflation higher as the 'labour reserve' is running out of workers
EU survey shows clear signs of accelerating inflation pressure partly by courtesy of ECB President Draghi - Ironically, inflation is now the biggest risk to 2019 growth
A general overview of the global macroeconomic and political situation
26. September 2018
USA: Solid new home sales in August, but significantly higher bond yields will change the environment in H1-2019
Britain: No signs of softer consumer spending after robust summer sales
France and Germany: Dark clouds on the horizon spell trouble for the EU
25. September 2018
USA: Consumer confidence hits the highest level since September 2000 - the share of households seeing 'plentiful-of-jobs' jumped in September
USA: Case-Shiller home price index continues to show steady increases - but the risk of higher mortgage bond yields is on the rise
Germany: External factors boost inflation pressure - but wage pressure is building as well
24. September 2018
Germany: IFO survey shows domestic tailwinds prevail over the 'potential risk' from a trade war
20. September 2018
+++There will be no updates on September 21+++
USA: Existing home sales report still heralds robust price increases in 2018, but headwinds from higher bond yields in 2019
US Philadelphia Fed survey underscores why the Federal Reserve should not hesitate to raise policy rates at a faster pace
Britain: The case for faster monetary tightening is building - Strong retail sales in August
'The world today has learned its lessons, which will prevent the next crisis to erupt.' Really?
19. September 2018
US housing starts jump in August, but wage increases will not be enough to mitigate the negative impact of higher bond yields in 2019
The last note on Trump's import tariffs - 'China is not the Soviet Union in the 1980s!'
Britain - Consumer prices jump in August: Households' inflation expectations are on the rise - Is a major bond market sell-off in the pipeline?
Japan: Strong domestic demand and slowing exports inflate the trade deficit - BoJ sees no reasons to withdraw ultra-loose monetary policy
18. September 2018
A short note on Trump's import tariffs decision: The trade war has reached a point of no return - President Xi risks losing face if Beijing makes a compromise
17. September 2018
China: House prices continue riding high on the trade war, tight capital control and the rest of the world shutting down on Chinese investments
14. September 2018
USA: UoM consumer sentiment index jumps in August as all engines are gaining momentum
USA: Weak retail sales report still indicates strong Q3 GDP growth as the July number was revised up - Federal Reserve remains on track of tightening 
EU: Labour cost inflation is slowly on the rise in the EMU and accelerating in the Euro-zone's 'labour pool' countries, Eastern Europe
China: Weak fixed capital investments, industrial output and retail sales in August -Buoyant residential construction boosts the risk of creating a significant oversupply of housing in 2019 - Beijing remains biased towards easing
13. September 2018
USA: Consumer price inflation was benign in August - Nonetheless, a tight labour market will change the picture in the coming months
Turkish central bank defies Erdogan by raising policy rates aggressively - or did Mr Erdogan just tacitly accept the decision?
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey continues to show robust growth despite a sharp decline in the manufacturing index - PM Abe reconciles with more 'reliable' friends in Asia than in Washington
Survey: The impact of the USA-China trade war from the point of US companies with production in China
12. September 2018
USA: Benign producer price inflation report does not change the outlook of higher domestic inflation pressure in 2019
China: Monetary aggregates are growing too slowly considering a more hostile global environment -  Beijing will soon provide more stimulus to the economy
Italy: Soon, Mr Salvini could be 'forced' to ignore Brussels and boost fiscal spending - Industrial output drops in July
China: Anecdotal evidence of significantly slower growth intensifies - Beijing raises domestic barriers to foreign companies
11. September 2018
Germany: Investor sentiment bounces back, but dark clouds from global trade remain on the horizon
Britain: A tight labour market boosts wages at a faster-than-expected pace
USA: NFIB small business survey shows companies are screaming for workers, who are not there! All indicators point towards faster wage increases
10. September 2018
Japan: The headline index in the Economy Watcher Survey bounces back in August - Very strong corporate spending boosts Q2 growth
China: The August trade report still shows no signs of collapsing growth
Sweden: The election result provides the political establishment one more chance to adjust policy - but the window of opportunity is closing
7. September 2018
USA: Employment report shows a sharp acceleration in wages as the gap between supply and demand for workers is on the rise
China: Foreign exchange reserves are stable as monetary policymakers in Beijing handle 'crisis' more prudently than in the past
Germany: The July trade report is more evidence of an economy facing several capacity constraints - but this will not help Berlin in the trade confrontation with President Trump
6. September 2018
USA: ISM service index bounces back sharply in August indicating annualised growth close to 3.5%
Brazil: Encouraging news as plunging currency fails to impact inflation, although this provides only short-term relief
USA: The gap between the ADP-number and the ISM employment indexes shows that companies are struggling to fill new job offers
Germany: Industrial orders take yet another beating in July - growth to rebound in H2, but significant uncertainty about the 2019 growth outlook
5. September 2018
USA: The trade deficit with China hits a new record high - Trump's trade policy will lead to higher deficit and higher inflation
Euro-zone retail sales: Inflation puts a drag on private consumption - Is there a case for stronger wage increases in the Euro-zone?
China: Caixin PMI service index declines to the lowest level since October 2017; mainland exporters are targetting Europe
Australia: Strong Q2 GDP report will not change a downbeat outlook for the AUD
4. September 2018
USA: Manufacturing ISM index jumps close to the highest level since 1984; employment and orders indexes are up
Euro-zone: The short and long-term inflation risk is on the rise; the case for a 'leftist' fiscal expansion gains momentum
The first day of the 'Stand Up' movement - Aufstehen will make waves beyond the borders of Germany
3. September 2018
Turkey: CPI and PPI inflation skyrockets in August - Tight monetary policy could provide support to the stock market, but the window of opportunity is closing rapidly
Sweden: PMI index falls sharply - The political establishment in Stockholm and Berlin faces the same questions, but they have no answers
31. August 2018
Euro-zone inflation of 2% could cause significant damage in several European labour markets with only benign wage increases
Japan: The July industrial output report disappoints, but the case for a reversal of BoJ's monetary policy remains strong; tight labour market and real wages increasing at the fastest rate since 1997
Spain: The economy showing signs of slowing and immigration create a dilemma in Madrid; Spain could turn into a hot spot in 2019
Better-than-expected China PMI survey: President Xi is to blame for many of the mainland's current problems, but Beijing has reacted rapidly to the new environment 
30. August 2018
Switzerland: The best leading indicators herald robust growth; inflation is on the rise and severe signs of labour shortage make Swiss interest rates far too low
EU survey raises unpleasant questions, as ultra-loose monetary policy appears to pose the biggest threat to the current economic expansion
South Korea faces more headwinds from a stronger won, a steep decline in consumer confidence and the world turning from 'multilateral' towards 'bilateral'
29. August 2018
US macroeconomic chart-update
Turkey: A sharp decline in the leading economic sentiment index heralds recession in H1-2019; FM Berat Albayrak turns to threaten other countries causing more economic damage
28. August 2018
USA: Consumer confidence skyrockets to the highest level since October 2000
Italy: Tentative signs of lower business and consumer sentiment as ten-year bond yields hit the highest level since 2014, but the immigration problem has been 'solved'
France: Consumer survey sees steep increase in share of households expecting higher unemployment; Environmental minister quits
Beijing is cornered by Trump's trade policy - Mexico-deal setting up a precedent for the rest of the world bodes ill for global trade
27. August 2018
Germany: IFO survey shows a sharp rebound in sentiment across the board as signs of labour shortage become evident all over Europe
24. August 2018
USA: A weak durable goods orders report, but the outlook still heralds steady corporate spending
Euro-zone consumer confidence declines relatively sharply in August as inflation makes an inroad into households' real purchasing power
23. August 2018
USA: The July new home sales report was a disappointment, but it is not a harbinger of recession, at least not yet
Brazil: The October elections have caught the country between a rock and a hard place - The central bank could soon be forced to raise policy rates
France: Business sentiment bounces back - The same applies to President Macron's approval rating making way for the next step in the reform process
Australia could soon move significantly to the right - the outlook for the AUD remains weak
22. August 2018
USA: The low level of unsold homes supports house prices, but it puts a lid on sales
USA: Trumponomics gave away money in anticipation of higher cyclical tax revenues in the future - What if the foundation for this evaporates?
21. August 2018
Britain: CBI industrial survey shows no signs of a slowing economy; the Bank of England is headed towards more interest rate hikes
Trump will soon launch a more aggressive 'intervention' in the foreign exchange market - but Mr Powell will hold the course!
20. August 2018
A short note on a rapidly changing political landscape in Europe: Germany's far-left may soon offer 'the same' immigration policy as the AfD - Europe's political centre is shrinking
China: The trade war and a hostile global environment fuel house prices - Xi Jinping faces severe criticism 'distributed' by government media
Germany: Inflation pressure at the factory gates in July - Chancellor Merkel considering financial support to Ankara could create new tensions in the EU and Berlin
16. August 2018
The failure of Turkey could lead to President Erdogan's downfall – the implications would be significant 
3. August 2018
USA: Service ISM headline index falls sharply, but the employment index jumps, which shows strong labour demand
US trade deficit continues to show increasing deficit with China, as Beijing imposes new tariffs on Washington - PBoC raises reserve requirement for FX settlements
US employment report shows solid job creation if one includes the May and June revisions - moderate wage increases
Turkey is now between a rock and a hard place - hyper-inflation or a deep recession
China: Service and consumer sentiment fall sharply - Beijing is at a decisive crossroad, which could have global ramifications - Nationalism is on the rise
2. August 2018
Euro-zone: Increasing inflation at the factory gates will keep upward pressure on consumer price inflation in H2-2018 and beyond - 'Massive' capacity expansion in the commodity sector?
Switzerland is yet another country, which could soon exit an ultra-loose monetary policy - The world faces synchronised liquidity tightening
1. August 2018
USA: Manufacturing ISM survey disappoints, but the combined ISM indexes remain harbingers of 3.5% annualised growth in H2
USA: ADP Employment Report shows strong job gains in July - Labour shortage to trigger annual wage increases of more than 3%
A short note on the China-US trade negotiations
Japan: There are cracks in the JGB 'bond dam' - this could have serious global consequences if the US ten-year bond yield breaches 3%
31. July 2018
USA: Conference Board consumer survey shows a buoyant labour market  - households' inflation expectations are on the rise
Euro-zone GDP report shows steady growth, but the impact of tailwinds from monetary easing in the past ebbs away
Japan's industrial production report: A steep decline in output report does not change the fact that the underlying details are more upbeat
China: PMI service sentiment index falls sharply in July - Weak inflation pressure makes room for more monetary easing and, consequently, a weaker yuan
30. July 2018
EMU: Solid performance of the 'reforming' countries in the periphery makes it difficult to postpone a 'normalisation' of monetary policy
EU Commission survey still forecasts robust Euro-zone growth in the second half of 2018
Sweden: Strong Q2 GDP growth and high inflation pressure, but a peculiar monetary policy
USA: The risk of recession in H2-2019 is on the rise - but higher price and wage inflation is needed to forecast 'recession'
27. July 2018
USA: Q2 GDP report was stronger than outlined by the headline number because of a significant drag from inventories
Japan: Inflation gaining a foothold will add pressure on the BoJ - faster monetary normalisation would be excellent timing as US interest rates are on the rise
France: Q2 GDP report disappoints - President Macron will not support Juncker-Trump deal to 'save Germany'
26. July 2018
USA: Durable goods orders report disappoints in June - The short-term outlook remains strong, but tentative signs of weakness to come in 2019
A short note on the Juncker-Trump 'deal'
Euro-zone: Hard and soft data continues to herald robust growth in H2 - Spanish unemployment hits the lowest level since 2008 and Italian sentiment stays at an elevated level
South Korea: Q2 GDP growth supported by strong export performance despite significant won appreciation in the last few years
25. July 2018
USA: New home sales and other early-indicators are slowly closing the gap to a flat yield curve
ECB's monthly report shows a strong acceleration in corporate borrowing - but the liquidity situation will tighten by late 2018 and beyond
Germany: The IFO survey shows tentative signs of growth stabilisation - but it is still a harbinger of 1% annualised growth in Q4 and beyond
Turkey: President Erdogan has de facto taken over monetary policy
24. July 2018
Beijing is not deliberately devaluing the RMB - China is increasingly allowing market forces to set the exchange rate of the yuan, at least to some extent
France: Manufacturing business sentiment declines to the lowest level since March 2017 - Macron's disapproval ratings decline to a new low
23. July 2018
USA: Existing home sales decline, as house prices increase - Tighter monetary conditions will put a lid on house prices in 2019
Watch out for the next 'dollar tweet' - President Trump knows exactly how to keep the pot boiling through 'management by fear'
19. July 2018
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey heralds much stronger growth and inflation in the short run followed by significantly slower growth in 2019
China: 'Rumour factory' shows the first real test of President Xi Jinping's leadership
Japan - Business sentiment is holding up very well considering that the world faces a global trade war - Reuters Tankan survey
18. July 2018
USA: Housing starts plunge in June, but the outlook remains strong, according to the NAHB homebuilder survey
A global trade war running out of control, as all partners involved believe to have a 'good case'
17. July 2018
USA: Weaker-than-expected industrial output report, but the outlook remains strong
Britain: A historically tight labour market fails to create 'extraordinary' wage increases although this will not prevent a rate hike in August
China: House price inflation gains momentum supported by low supply, real income and probably also the 'trade war'
16. July 2018
USA: Robust retail sales report after significant revision of the May data - Households are exposed to strong tailwinds
Euro-zone: The trade surplus has peaked, as the economy sees capacity constraints earlier than expected - but trade surplus with the USA remains on the rise
China: Q2 growth slows dragged down by weak SOE spending and the risk of a comprehensive trade war - Beijing tries to wow the EU
13. July 2018
USA: UoM consumer sentiment index declines, but it remains at an elevated level
Germany: Inflation pressure is building - a far too slow monetary response will lead to significant euro weakness
China: Trade surplus with the USA hits a new all-time high; Beijing making trade concessions to the EU is like a red rag to the White House
12. July 2018
USA: Moderate consumer price inflation, but signs of labour shortage are becoming highly visible - 'job quits' hit the highest level since 2000
Euro-zone: Industrial output report shows steady growth, but several unsolved problems will create headwinds in early 2019
President Trump throws Europe into chaos, but so does a self-willed Chancellor Merkel
11. July 2018
USA: Inflation at the factory gates continued to increase in June, as increasing demand will have to be fulfilled by shrinking capacity
Japan: Robust machinery orders report and a strong outlook could soon be undermined by a hostile global environment
NATO Summit: Breakfast meeting ends with fierce Trump attack on Germany
10. July 2018
German ZEW survey: Headline index falls sharply as investors see no light at the end of the tunnel
US small business sentiment remains buoyant - Signs of a severe labour shortage
China: Moderate consumer price inflation, but price pressure at the factory gates is on the rise
9. July 2018
Germany: Chancellor Merkel's 'kicking the can down the road' strategy is no longer working, according to 'shocking opinion poll'
China - Foreign exchange reserves statistics in June show no signs of 'trade war panic' - yuan hedging costs decline
5. July 2018
USA: Buoyant ISM service survey shows strong demand, which sees shrinking supply
USA: ADP report shows steady employment growth, but the labour market will get significantly tighter in H2
Germany: Strong rebound in domestic and Euro-zone demand boosts industrial orders - Robust 2018 outlook but growth will slow significantly in 2019
++There were no updates on Friday, July 6
4. July 2018
Sweden: Strong PMI service survey and the Riksbank raising inflation estimates will do little to change the central bank's 'dovish' reputation
China: Strong service PMI supported by anecdotal evidence from the mainland - but the risk of a full-blown trade war poses a risk to the economy
3. July 2018
Euro-zone: Producer prices jump in May at the same time as ECB President has second thoughts about withdrawing QE too quickly
Turkey: Inflation jumps to 15.4% in June - President Erdogan could soon be cornered by his own policy mistakes
2. July 2018
USA: Buoyant manufacturing ISM survey as companies focus on pro-growth policy measures rather than the President's way of launching his policy
The Euro-zone unemployment rate declines in May as signs of labour shortage emerge 'a little too fast for comfort'
Germany: The Greens could replace the CSU - but such a coalition government would lead to the Weimar Republic II - Seehofer's political career is coming to an end
China: PMI surveys show not yet any signs of a 'significant' growth slowdown - monetary easing bias will lead to more yuan weakness
29. June 2018
Brazil could soon face 'game over!' - the number of dark clouds on the horizon is on the rise
Euro-zone inflation is slowly creeping higher - underlying price pressure is on the rise
Germany: Labour shortage at an all-time high fails to boost consumption; the political mess will get worse and yet another 'kicking-the-can-deal' in Brussels will do nothing to prevent such an outcome
Japan: Better-than-expected industrial output in May but shipments decline sharply - Mixed outlook as dark clouds from abroad will not disappear
28. June 2018
Euro-zone: EU business and consumer survey continues to paint a highly upbeat growth outlook, but inflation pressure is on the rise
Germany: Stable GfK consumer confidence index, but 'cyclical indicator' plunges as households see dark clouds on the horizon
27. June 2018
USA: Durable goods orders fell slightly in May - The outlook remains strong, but it is attached significant uncertainty
Italy's voters got what they voted for, which propels consumer confidence - but reality will soon hit the shores
France: Disappointing consumer survey is like a douche of cold water in the face of President Macron at the same time as global headwinds gain momentum
26. June 2018
USA: Consumer confidence declines, but household sentiment remains close to a record high
The US President is trapped - 'There is almost no constituency in the U.S. for business-as-usual with China' - 'Everyone in their own way is saying you have to be tough on China'
25. June 2018
Beijing's monetary policy decision will reinforce China-bashing in Washington
Germany: The IFO index takes yet another beating hit by domestic politics and a global trade war which could soon escalate
22. June 2018
Is the White House having second thoughts about the trade war?
21. June 2018
USA: The regional Philadelphia Fed index plunges in June, although this was partially compensated by a strong increase in the capital expenditure index
French business sentiment remains, so far, unscathed despite increasing global turmoil - French voters 'appear' to have accepted Macron's long-term policy approach
China: Market talk about significant RRR cut after the publication of a PBoC working paper - 'moderate easing' is likely
20. June 2018
USA: Low supply puts a drag on existing home sales; higher prices and mortgage yield are having an impact as well, according to NAR
Manufacturing sentiment bounces back sharply, but Britain is in a lose-lose situation, which will put a drag on growth in 2019 and beyond
Germany: Producer price inflation gains momentum, but Draghi is still able to transform 'hawkish statement' into 'dovish message'
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey continues to herald robust growth going into the third quarter, although this is still in sharp contrast to other surveys
19. June 2018
US housing starts: No decisive signs yet of significant headwinds in the pipeline although signs of serious capacity constraints - Trump's moment of hubris
The CSU would become the second-largest party in Germany if it decides to walk alone - Merkel on 'mission impossible' as Italy's League becomes the largest party in opinion polls (29%)
18. June 2018
The Trump Doctrine, 'America First and Alone', could have dramatic consequences
15. June 2018
USA: UoM consumer sentiment index increases propelled by a steep jump in the current conditions index; households are exposed to tailwinds, but inflation expectations are on the rise
USA: Regional Empire State manufacturing index jumps in June reinforcing the case of a quite strong growth leg in H2
A short note on a rapidly developing political crisis in Germany
China: Strong gains in house prices, but supply is increasing sharply -'Nervous' warning from CBIRC official
14. June 2018
USA: Strong May retail sales report heralds robust Q2 GDP report; buoyant growth outlook for H2
ECB Decision: 'Dovish tapering' in an environment of slowing growth is in sharp contrast to the US Federal Reserve
Britain: Retail sales bounce back strongly in May supported by higher real disposable income and a buoyant labour market
China: Retail sales and investments slow considerably in May, but a strong rebound in property market supply is closing rapidly 'the gap' to demand
13. June 2018
USA: PPI inflation hits the highest level since 2011 - Several factors are now adding upward pressure on inflation at the factory gates
Euro-zone: Industrial output falling sharply in April complicates the monetary task of the ECB
12. June 2018
USA: Inflation continues to increase; the best leading price indicators herald higher inflation in H2
China: Shadow bank lending plunges in May, as the PBoC faces complicated task in H2
Germany: ZEW headline index plunges to the lowest level since 2012 at the same time as US sentiment indicators herald growth acceleration
USA: The NFIB small business sentiment index jumps to the highest level since 1984; 'good-time-to-spend' and 'sales' indexes jump
A short note on the outcome of the USA-North-Korea summit - So far, the deal is no different from Obama's Iran deal
11. June 2018
China: Moderate consumer price inflation in May, but the closure of polluting industries is creating bottlenecks in several industries
Japan: Machinery orders jump in April - but the outlook remains cloudy
The tragicomic outcome of the G7-meeting could turn into the beginning of the end of the transatlantic alliance - Lindsey Graham: 'I am not so sure McCain is right that a majority of Americans back free trade'
8. June 2018
Brazil: Falling victim to 'the mother of all liquidity tightening' - but inflation remains benign
France and Germany: Manufacturing output declines sharply in April - Outlook remains upbeat in France but weak in Germany - 'Political' ECB creates more fuel to EU tensions
China: Imports jump in May - Beijing is more than willing to allow a trade deficit in the coming years, but this requires an 'open-minded' Washington
7. June 2018
China presentation - An update of major trends on the mainland
Germany: Industrial orders plunge in April - The country will prove vulnerable in 2019 as Berlin has left the economy unprepared for the future
Japan: The Diffusion Index continues to herald industrial output contraction in Q3 despite bouncing back in April
6. June 2018
USA: Lower-than-expected trade deficit in April, but the politically sensitive deficit with China and the EU hit a new record high
Spain: Disappointing industrial output report does not change positive short-term growth outlook for the economy - EU budget manager to become the next economy minister
ECB's possible change of its QE-program and the connection with an 'unfriendly' government in Rome; A short note on the US dollar and the euro
Australia: Strong Q1 GDP report will not change the monetary stance of the RBA
5. June 2018
USA: Service ISM index bounces back sharply - inflation pressure continues to increase
Euro-zone: Disappointing consumer spending statistics show no signs yet of a rebound in growth as higher inflation erodes households' real spending power
China - Caixin PMI service index heralds steady growth - Beijing prepares for the unavoidable 'confrontation' with the United States
4. June 2018
Spain is not yet matters of importance from the EMU's point of view - but this could change as Berlin's fiscal stance sees declining support in the EU
Turkey: Skyrocketing inflation will force the central bank to raise policy rates shortly before the presidential and parliamentary elections humiliating President Erdogan
1. June 2018
USA: Manufacturing ISM survey shows a new growth leg is in the pipeline - Inflation pressure remains at an elevated level
USA: Robust May employment report combined with increasing wage inflation - The Federal Reserve remains on a path of monetary normalisation
Sweden: PMI surveys still herald steady growth, but excellent economic performance has not prevented the far-right Sweden Democrats from gaining 20 percent in opinion polls
The Italian Crisis is yet another reminder of an 'institutionally' weak EMU - a sense of crisis will keep coming back
**Vacation: There will be no updates on August 6-10 and August 13-17
31. May 2018
Euro-zone: Consumer prices jump propelled by a weaker euro and higher energy prices - The unemployment rate declines to the lowest level since 2008
Japan: Yet another disappointing industrial output report - leading indicators picture ambiguous outlook
China: The leading national PMI surveys herald steady growth, as Beijing succeeds in 'fine-tuning' the economy
30. May 2018
USA: Headline growth revised down in the first revision of the Q1 GDP report, but the details are more positive than in the preliminary report
EU survey still heralds robust growth outlook and a steep jump in households' inflation expectations
Germany is the main beneficiary of a 'simmering' Euro-zone crisis - unemployment rate hits a new record low in May
Japan: Consumer confidence improves as the yen appreciates - but the stock market is at risk because of more global headwinds in the pipeline
29. May 2018
US consumer confidence stays close to a record high - the share of respondents seeing 'plentiful-of-jobs' skyrocketed in May - The Federal Reserve remains on the same path
Brazil - It is difficult to hide when a shrinking interest rate differential to the United States has left the currency vulnerable to external shocks and internal skirmishes
Italy is just yet another reminder that national elections are a risk to the entire EMU - this is, of course, not sustainable in the long run
Turkish central bank' firefighting efforts will not be enough as President Erdogan could soon set a new fire
28. May 2018
Spain plunges into yet another EMU crisis, but there is a significant difference between Spain and Italy
Italy: There is no reason to applaud the President's decision - this could instead propel support to the populist parties - Impeachment on the agenda
25. May 2018
USA: Robust 'core' durable goods orders, but President Trump's trade policy deflates corporate spending plans
Germany: IFO survey shows that the 'downturn in business sentiment has stopped' due to domestic demand - but the economy is vulnerable to global headwinds
24. May 2018
USA: Higher mortgage yields put a lid on existing home sales and prices; Trump cancels meeting with North Korean leader
Germany: The economy is riding an 'old wave'
Japan: Reuters Tankan service sentiment hits a new all-time high, which is in sharp contrast to other surveys
France: Manufacturing sentiment stays at an elevated level, but service sentiment declines sharply; the 'Macron Story' remains intact
23. May 2018
US new home sales remain robust considering mortgage yields are now at the highest level since 2011
22. May 2018
Data Protection -'s personal data policy, GDPR
Britain: CBI industrial orders index plunges to the lowest level since September 2016 - but this only looks like a 'growth pause'
Beijing is overwhelmed by the number of 'free lunches' offered by the Trump administration - Smart Chinese policymakers are outmanoeuvring the White House
Italy and Europe: The populist parties are not winning, the political establishment is losing despite a recovering European economy
18. May 2018
Germany - Higher energy prices boost inflation at the factory gates; but this will not change ECB President Draghi's dovish stance, at least not yet
17. May 2018
USA: Very strong Philadelphia Fed survey shows no signs of growth slow-down in 2018, as the orders index hits the highest level since 1973; but capital spending plans continue to weaken
Japan: Machinery orders show no signs of a self-propelled economic recovery
16. May 2018
USA: Strong industrial output report, but the outlook is less buoyant compared to a few months ago; but no signs of excessively high inventories
An update of 'The case for a stronger US dollar'
China: House prices gain momentum, as there are tentative signs that Beijing is biased towards reversing tightening measures
Japan shows the first economic contraction since 2015; a stronger USD could prove to be a mixed blessing for the economy
15. May 2018
USA: April retail sales report on track to show a solid bounce in Q2 private consumption - Empire States index recovers
Britain - The economy shows classic late-cycle signs - wage increases close to the highest level since 2009