Forgot login
Please fill in your e-mail adress below. We will send you a link with details on recovering your account.

 

Click image to close window.
26. November 2019
USA: Dallas Fed survey shows stabilisation in the manufacturing sector but also a steep decline in the capital expenditure plans index
25. November 2019
A short note on comments from Liu He evading the attention of the financial market
Germany: IFO survey shows no 'decisive' evidence of an upcoming rebound. Financial repression could hit households hard in 2020
By Invitation: Stealth leadership - Silence on key challenges at China's recent Central Committee meeting
22. November 2019
Germany: Q3 GDP details show a 'slightly stronger' underlying economy than reflected by the preliminary report
21. November 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed headline index concludes rock bottom in manufacturing sentiment, but details show a mixed picture
Turkey: Consumer confidence index bounces back but remains close to the lowest level since 2009
France: No further signs of weaker business sentiment. The positive impact of President Macron's reforms hits the shores, but the budget deficit is on the rise
20. November 2019
++There will only be delayed updates on Thursday, November 21++
Global trade: The latest statistics show no signs of an upcoming rebound
Germany: Prices at the factory gates move deeper into the contraction zone. Unions and employers call for a €450 billion infrastructure spending initiative
19. November 2019
China: The fiscal deficit in October hits the highest level seen in the last three decades. Beijing has few options left
A short note on the US dollar and the euro: Diverging central bank balance sheets erode support for a fundamentally overvalued US dollar
18. November 2019
A short note on Hong Kong, US-China trade negotiations and the 'leaked documents'
15. November 2019
USA: Weak industrial output will keep the Federal Reserve on a path of 'quantitative easing' - more manufacturing weakness 'beyond GM' is in the pipeline
USA: Household spending is losing momentum, according to the October retail sales report, but consumers still see more tailwinds than headwinds
Euro-zone: The trade surplus with the United States hits a new all-time high
China: 'Second-hand' house price statistics show weakness. Beijing faces a dilemma
14. November 2019
Turkey: Industrial output makes a sharp rebound. Falling inflation makes leeway for more rate cuts
Japan: Weak Q3 GDP growth because 'front-loading' of private consumption was absent despite a hike in the value-added-tax rate
Germany: The economy escapes 'technical recession' but weakness in the auto sector could soon hit the service sector
China: Beijing faces economic headwinds, which are not within the range of the 'new normal'
13. November 2019
USA: Benign inflation continues to boost households' real purchasing power. Fiscal and monetary policy remains accommodative late in the business cycle
A short note on the swine fever in China: Why the outbreak worries Beijing as price pressure boost other food prices. Swine fever is spreading to other places around the world
Britain: Declining inflation maintains a robust rise in households' real spending power, but the best for households is coming to an end
The corporate sector created a supply chain based on costs optimisation. The price of rising 'political diversification' will add upward pressure on inflation further down the road
12. November 2019
Germany: ZEW survey bounces back, but the growth outlook remains weak
USA: Small business sentiment index increases in October as the job market remains buoyant
India: Manufacturing output plunges at the fastest rate since 2011. Moody's downgrades credit rating as the country 'is undergoing a significant slowdown'
11. November 2019
Britain: Manufacturing output contracts, but PM Johnson headed for a huge election victory in December provides some light at the end of the tunnel
China: Aggressive monetary policy easing is needed, but this is not possible in the current environment of a possible 'trade deal' and soaring food price inflation
China: Swine fever propels consumer price inflation to the highest level since 2012. Producer prices move deeper into the deflation zone
8. November 2019
USA: Consumer confidence is barely changed in November at an elevated level. The unanswered question is whether there is a Sino-US deal or not?
Germany: September trade statistics show signs of stabilisation, but no signs yet of an upcoming rebound
China: October report shows a more benign decline in foreign trade, but imports from the United States hit the lowest level since 2012
7. November 2019
Germany: Manufacturing output plunges at the fastest rate since October 2012. More weakness to come, according to IFO
A 'harmonious' Sino-US relationship? Sustainable? If so, who benefits?
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey - Manufacturing and service sentiment plunges in November - Bank of Japan ponders new monetary measures
6. November 2019
Spain: The economy is losing momentum. Industrial output is forecast to contract in the first half of 2020
Germany: Non-Euro-zone orders boost industrial orders as Economic Council lowers the 2020 forecast to below 1%
5. November 2019
USA: Service ISM index bounces back propelled by improving news flow. Nonetheless, the growth outlook remains weak, according to the combined surveys
USA: The trade deficit falls at the same time as manufacturers assess inventories to be too high. The deficit with the EU hit a new all-time high
China: The domestic economy is much weaker than reflected by 'upbeat sentiment' in the financial market. Beijing is 'cornered' by soaring pork prices
4. November 2019
USA: Factory orders decline again in September. More to come in the coming months, but the Federal Reserve managing to steepen the yield curve gives rise for some short-term optimism
Germany: Angela Merkel and her successor, AKK, are under siege within the CDU. The coalition government in Berlin is at risk
Switzerland: Consumer confidence plunges to the lowest level since 2009 as workers do not benefit from the recovery but feel the pain from the downturn
Unwind short-European-stock-market recommendation
1. November 2019
USA: A meagre rebound in manufacturing sentiment is a disappointment considering that the trade conflict has been 'solved'
USA: Robust labour market report is a function of growth in the past three months. The best forward-looking employment indicators herald weakness in the first half of 2020
Japan: The unemployment rate increases and the leading employment indicator deteriorates again in September
31. October 2019
Euro-zone: The economy is headed towards shallow growth. ECB President Lagarde accuses Germany and the Netherlands of sitting on their hands
China: PMI surveys support anecdotal evidence of a weak economy, as companies and households are aware of economic headwinds beyond a 'fantastic' trade deal with the USA
30. October 2019
USA: Private consumption fuels, as usual, economic growth in the third quarter. The best leading indicators herald significantly weaker growth
Euro-zone: Sentiment deteriorates across the board, but 'recession' is still not part of the equation, according to the survey
Italy's Matteo Salvini patiently waits for disillusioned voters to come to him. The strategy could prove highly successful in 2020
France: Q3 GDP report shows moderate growth sponsored by government spending. No signs of 'recession' but Paris has no fiscal ammo left
29. October 2019
USA: 'Lagging' consumer sentiment remains at an elevated level, but combined ISM indexes herald employment contraction in Q1
Spain: Consumer spending remains robust and sentiment remains high, although the country is heading for another national election. Far-right Vox Party is expected to see a sharp increase in support
France: Consumer confidence stays at an elevated level. Nonetheless, Paris and the rest of Europe are headed towards a long period of subdued growth
28. October 2019
Germany: Thuringia state election is yet another defeat to Chancellor Merkel. The far-left and far-right gain strongly
USA: Budget deficit soars as the White House's economic plan derails. Defence spending jumps
25. October 2019
Germany: IFO survey did not show further weakness, but the economy remains in the contraction zone
24. October 2019
USA: New home sales report disappoints in September, but still no signs of recession
USA: Durable goods orders report shows no signs yet of a decisive turnaround in corporate spending
Turkey: Russia and President Trump make leeway for a substantial rate cut. More to come as Moscow and Beijing provide Ankara with a life jacket
South Korea: Private investments put a drag on Q3 growth. Fiscal expansion and more rate cuts in the pipeline
23. October 2019
France: The repercussion of Germany's economic weakness is slowly impacting the rest of Europe. French manufacturing sentiment drops to the lowest level since March 2015
By Invitation: China's Corporate Social Credit System - Level Playing Field or Forced Digital Hand?
22. October 2019
USA: The Federal Reserve continues to sponsor the housing market. Existing home prices rose at the fastest rate since January 2018
Britain: CBI Industrial Trends survey predicts an 'unavoidable' recession 
21. October 2019
Taiwanese export orders and South Korean October trade data show no signs yet of an upcoming rebound
China: House price inflation continues to slow. Beijing still sits on its hands - but for how long?
Podcast interview with Steffen Jensen, Danish TV2's Middle East correspondent, about yet another crisis in Syria, European hypocrisy, Africa, and the risk of a new migrant crisis [FREE ACCESS]
18. October 2019
China: Growth hits the lowest level since 1992 as reluctant policymakers consider new measures. Aggressive money-printing is not possible as long as the trade negotiations are 'successful'
17. October 2019
USA: Industrial production contracted in September. The downturn in the manufacturing sector will accelerate in the coming months, according to the ISM survey
USA - Philadelphia Fed survey: A decline in the headline index disguises strong underlying details
Britain: Retail sales are holding up well considering strong political headwinds, but the economy is losing momentum. Prime Minister Johnson cannot afford to show weakness in the Brexit negotiations
16. October 2019
USA: Retail sales report disappoints in September, but private consumption will still make a robust contribution to Q3 GDP growth
South Korea: The Bank of Korea cuts policy rates as the economy faces deflation
China: Credit expansion is far too weak to support the economy. Yet another failed trade deal will fundamentally change the situation
15. October 2019
Germany: ZEW survey continues to show gloomy investor sentiment. Europe faces significant geopolitical risks
USA: Manufacturing Empire State survey shows signs of stabilising sentiment at a low level. The White House needs a new 'external enemy': Europe
China: Producer prices move deeper into the 'deflation zone'. Consumer price inflation boosted by a 69.3% increase in pork prices
14. October 2019
Euro-zone: Industrial output contracts but consumers are still supporting the economy. Nonetheless, the union faces several headwinds
Yet another disappointing China-USA trade deal, buying time for Beijing: The NBA case shows the flip side of having a significant exposure to China. The next challenge: the corporate social credit system
China: September trade report shows no signs of a rebound in global trade. Beijing could soon turn more hawkish towards Washington
11. October 2019
USA: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index jumps back in line with the Conference Board consumer confidence index
India: Manufacturing output declines at the fastest rate since February 2013
Disruptive forces: The European Union faces the risk of a new migration wave as the conditions for the 'perfect storm' are building in the Middle East and North Africa
10. October 2019
Britain: Manufacturing output drops in August. The best leading indicators herald the steepest decline in output since 2009 in the coming months
Germany: Exports fell sharply in August. No signs of improvement as auto exporters face global cyclical headwinds and technology disruption
A short note on the China-USA trade negotiations: President Xi Jinping too close to the 'losing-face zone' poses a significant risk to the financial market
Japan: Machinery orders fall sharply as the aftermath of 'Abenomics' emerges. Also, a short note on the China-USA trade negotiations
9. October 2019
Australia: Consumer sentiment plunges to the lowest level since 2015
USA: Federal Reserve officially 'opts' again for balance sheet expansion even though this already started two months ago
8. October 2019
USA: Small business sentiment declines but remains at an elevated level. The job market tightens
A short note: The highly symbolic NBA-Beijing conflict shows the corporate risks attached to the Chinese market. These risks are not priced into the stock market
EU, Rome and Berlin face the risk of a new migration wave as the conditions for the 'perfect storm' are building in the Middle East and North Africa
Germany: Industrial output surprises to the upside in August, but the outlook remains grim. Berlin faces the risk of a new migration wave
Japan: The headline index in the Economy Watcher survey jumps while the 'future outlook index' plunges
7. October 2019
Japan downgrades growth forecast to 'worsening', which is usually associated with 'recession'
Germany: Domestic demand pulls industrial orders down in August. IFO survey heralds more weakness to come
4. October 2019
USA: The economy shows robust job growth but the forward-looking indicators herald significantly lower growth
When 'cutting corners' is no longer an efficient policy option
3. October 2019
USA: The service sector is headed in the same direction as the manufacturing sector. The Federal Reserve will turn significantly more dovish
Turkey: Another sharp decline in inflation boosts the likelihood of more rate cuts. President Erdogan faces increasing dissent within the AKP
Sweden: A shockingly weak service survey should give rise to more concern across Europe as most countries are now left without ammo
2. October 2019
USA: ADP Employment Report shows weak job creation in the manufacturing sector. Tomorrow's ISM survey will show whether this is spreading to the service sector
The risk of Chinese intervention in Hong Kong will increase sharply shortly after the anniversary celebrations in Beijing
Japan: Consumer confidence falls sharply as households fail to benefit from Abenomics. The risk of a deteriorating 'global perception' of the global economic situation
1. October 2019
There will be only delayed updates on October 1
USA: ISM manufacturing sentiment moves deeper into recession territory. The headline index hits the lowest level since June 2009
Sweden: Manufacturing sentiment falls sharply into the recession zone. Export orders index plunges
30. September 2019
Euro-zone unemployment rate declines to the lowest level since May 2008 at the same time as industrial sentiment plunges
Japan: Industrial output falls sharply in August, as global manufacturing sentiment continues to weaken. South Korean exports in September declined at the fastest pace since July 2009
China: Caixin manufacturing index bounces back, but there is no anecdotal evidence of stronger growth. Capital outflow is on the rise
Unplugged 'Travel Notes' from China: No signs of a growth rebound, but still plenty of opportunities although the low-hanging fruits are gone
19. September 2019
China trip: There will be no updates on September 20 and September 23-27 - Delayed updates on October 1
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey indicates robust short-term growth, but a sharp decline in the  'long-term' indicator closes the gap to a flat yield curve
USA: The Federal Reserve fails to fulfil excessive rate cut expectations in the financial market. Money market volatility gives rise to 'some concern'
18. September 2019
USA: Housing starts and permits skyrocketing to the highest level since 2007 raise new doubt about the Federal Reserve's dovish stance
Italy headed towards recession will propel Salvini back into power in 2020. Renzi abandons the Democratic Party and starts a new party
Japan: No signs yet of a rebound in foreign trade - Exports drop by 8.2% year-on-year in August
17. September 2019
USA: Industrial output surprises to the upside in August but the outlook heralds significant weakness
China: House price inflation declines in August. Beijing will do 'whatever it takes' to avoid asset price deflation but the situation is more complicated today
16. September 2019
USA: Empire State survey shows no signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector. Corporate spending plans plunge in September
A short note on the impact of the drone attacks in Saudia Arabia
China: Weak economic statistics underscore that Beijing underestimates the power of headwinds
13. September 2019
USA: Solid retail sales as households still see no major headwinds. It will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to fulfil excessive rate cut expectations
USA: The Federal Reserve should not listen to the 'turncoat' - Historically low real bond yields, the federal budget deficit jumps and core inflation hits the highest level since 2008
12. September 2019
ECB cuts the deposit rate by ten basis points as Mario Draghi has come too far away from the shore from where he came
Japan: Reuters Tankan manufacturing index falls sharply in September as the growth outlook continues to deteriorate
11. September 2019
USA: Core producer inflation rose in August. The Federal Reserve is still lured into cutting policy rates in September
China: Monetary statistics show that Beijing is forced to act more aggressively in 2020. The yuan will continue to suffer
China: Beijing is 'forced' to scrap the QFII quota system as it needs to reduce the risk of capital outflow caused by more aggressive monetary easing
USA: The departure of a hawkish John Bolton leaves US foreign policy in the hands of a turncoat
10. September 2019
USA: Small business sentiment declines in August but remains strong. Labour shortage hits a new record high
Italy: The economic downturn combined with a new government coalition creates the foundation for stronger support for the League in 2020
China: Soaring pork prices keep consumer price inflation in positive territory. A weak economy moves PPI prices deeper into the contraction zone. More yuan depreciation in the pipeline as QE seems highly likely
9. September 2019
Britain: The outlook for manufacturers remains weak. Chancellor Sajid Javid 'signals an end to fiscal discipline'
Germany: Exports surprise to the upside in July, but the outlook remains weak. Imports contract. Fiscal expansion is required but 'without hurting the climate', according to a majority of voters
China: Exports to the United States plunge by more than 15%. A reluctant Beijing will be forced to launch aggressive monetary easing
6. September 2019
USA: Employment report shows a mixed picture. The labour force jumps as workers see job opportunities in a tight labour market
China cuts banks' reserve requirements; a reluctant Beijing will be forced to launch 'QE with Chinese characteristics'
Japan: The Diffusion Index shows a grim growth outlook in the next six months. Tokyo can only bet on aggressive monetary stimulus measures in China. Beijing might soon opt for such an outcome 
Germany: Manufacturing output falls sharply in July. Berlin will respond, but the response will come too slowly and too little
5. September 2019
USA: ISM service index jumps in August but the employment index plunges to the lowest level since March 2017
USA: ADP employment report continues to show a strong, but 'lagging', labour market benefiting from a robust economy in the past
Germany: Industrial orders fall sharply in July. More weakness to come according to the IFO survey. Is Chancellor Merkel present?
4. September 2019
USA: Trade deficit with China continues to decline but increases against the EU. Imports and exports are headed towards the steepest decline since 2009
Europe: The monetary experiment is running out of control; the credibility of fiat money is eroding
Euro-zone retail sales report is still in line with robust consumer spending in the third quarter of 2019
Australia: A weak Q2 GDP report considering that secular demographic tailwind prevails. More rate cuts are in the pipeline
3. September 2019
USA: ISM survey shows an increased risk of recession in the manufacturing sector
Brazil: President Bolsonaro is slowly turning into a 'liability' as his political base of support crumbles
Europe: A deteriorating labour market is the 'missing factor' in the 'game plan' of political parties on the far right and left. The 'missing factor' is on the horizon!
Turkey: Inflation falling sharply in August will animate Ankara to cut policy rates more in the near future
2. September 2019
Sweden: Manufacturing business sentiment stabilises in August. A change in the policy mix makes the Swedish currency look 'slightly more attractive'
Germany: State elections in Brandenburg and Sachsen create 'relief' in Berlin despite skyrocketing support to AfD. The reaction is yet another policy-mistake made by Berlin
China's official manufacturing PMI index stays in the contraction zone. The 'real picture' is worse than reflected by the 'leading' PMI surveys
30. August 2019
Spain: Retail sales jump in July. The growth outlook improves markedly, according to the leading business surveys
Switzerland: Unchanged KOF headline index still attaches a high probability to the outcome of 'recession'
Japan: Industrial output bounces back, but retail sales plunge. Overall outlook deteriorates rapidly, according to the best forward-looking surveys
29. August 2019
EU Commission survey surprises to the upside, but the labour market is deteriorating, according to Euro-zone households, not least in Germany 
Japan: Consumer confidence declines to the lowest level since April 2015; the share of households expecting inflation above 2 per cent increases to a new high
28. August 2019
Euro-zone: Monetary aggregates expand at a much faster rate than expected, but available liquidity is not used to the same extent
Italy: The economy moves deeper into the 'recession zone'. A PD-M5S government coalition will offer Salvini a huge election victory in 2020
USA: Regional Fed surveys show companies are having second thoughts about investment plans
27. August 2019
USA: Conference Board's consumer confidence index jumps in August - the share of respondents seeing plentiful-of-jobs hits the highest level since September 2000
France: Upbeat business and consumer sentiment shows 'decoupling' from the 'weakest link', Germany, at least for the time being
Germany: Q2 GDP details show significant growth contraction from net-exports and 'positive' contribution from higher inventories
26. August 2019
USA: Durable goods orders report fails to show the 'expected' benefit of President Trump's corporate tax cuts
A short note on the Chinese currency: Yuan weakness 'despite' and not 'because of' Beijing
Germany: IFO survey heralds a deep recession in the second half of 2019 or going into 2020. Fiscal stimulus measures will come but far too slowly as Merkel remains 'Chancellor of inaction'
23. August 2019
USA: Robust July new home sales report after June number was revised up, but Federal Reserve' bias remains towards monetary easing
22. August 2019
Britain: CBI retailer sentiment index plunges to the lowest level since 2008; 'Boris Johnson effect' remains highly visible in the latest opinion poll
21. August 2019
USA: A robust housing market remains the 'missing factor' in the forecast of recession in 2020 as external shocks continue to support domestic demand
Aggressive fiscal stimulus measures would be the solution to everything 'if' the perverse argument of 'demography' is really the main factor behind negative bond yields - but it is not!
A short note on a weak 'China proxy' - 'The first-20-days' South Korean trade report continues to show weakness
20. August 2019
Taiwan: 'Mainland proxy' shows tentative signs that the 'downturn' might no longer be accelerating
Germany: Benign inflation and 'recession' make leeway for fiscal and monetary stimulus measures
19. August 2019
Japan: Sentiment plunges across the board, according to the Reuters Tankan survey
16. August 2019
USA: A sharp decline in consumer sentiment should give rise to some concern at the Federal Reserve, but households are still exposed to more tailwinds than headwinds
USA: A mixed housing market report, but falling mortgage rates will boost future activity. Skyrocketing refinancing supports existing homeowners
Turkey: Industrial output drops sharply. President Erdogan 'readjusts' his views to make new friends in Beijing
15. August 2019
USA: Manufacturing output contracts in July; more to come in the coming months but there are no signs yet of a 'collapse'
USA: Surprisingly strong manufacturing Philadelphia Fed survey. Retail sales jump as households benefit from low inflation, interest rates and a strong labour market
A short note on a flat US yield curve: A few missing factors are still needed to forecast a 'serious economic downturn'
China's highly regulated house prices see support from tier-2 and tier-3 cities, but oversupply is on the rise 
14. August 2019
Euro-zone Q2 GDP report: Germany and Italy are the two weakest links. Chancellor Merkel is slowly recognising the need for fiscal stimulus measures
Britain: Elevated price and wage inflation makes monetary policy a delicate balancing act for the Bank of England as 'recession' in 2020 is highly likely
Japan: Strong hard data, but soft data show a sharp deterioration in the growth outlook
China: Economic activity slowed significantly in July, but Beijing gets help from Trump blinking when the going gets tough
13. August 2019
USA: Small business sentiment bounces back and stays at an elevated level. Labour shortage hits an all-time high
Germany: ZEW index plunges in August to the lowest level since 2011 as the risk of recession increases dramatically
USA: Budget deficit soars despite robust nominal GDP growth in 2019 and 2018. 'Necessary' boost in defence spending will further inflate the deficit
12. August 2019
China: Monetary statistics still show no signs of panicking policy-makers. Beijing is too confident about the future
Germany: The economy slows rapidly ahead of crucial state elections in East Germany. Berlin is poised to launch aggressive fiscal stimulus measures
Podcast interview with Philip Christian Ulrich, Kongressen.com, about why 'America First' is here to stay - with or without the re-election of President Trump [FREE ACCESS]
A summary of the last two turbulent weeks of political and economic events
27. July 2019
There will be no updates from July 29 to August 9 due to vacation
26. July 2019
USA: Robust Q2 GDP report was stronger than outlined by the headline number. Real domestic demand jumped in Q2
Italy is going nowhere after Rome chose the line of least resistance. 'Fools' are forced to finance Rome
A short note on the after-effect of the IFO survey: 'Germany Not in Crisis Nor Mulling Stimulus'
25. July 2019
USA: The Federal Reserve has already made its decision with or without a better-than-expected durable goods orders report
South Korea: The economy is much weaker than reflected by the headline growth number in the Q2 GDP report
Spain: The unemployment rate hits the lowest level since 2008. Political mess is no problem as long as politicians do not take any decisions
Germany: IFO expectations index drops to the lowest level since July 2009. Service sector moves into a 'downswing'
24. July 2019
Euro-zone: ECB can only bet on a weaker euro. The current high real ten-year bond yield differential supports such a strategy
What the UN 2019 Population Projection says about the future - Presentation
France: Manufacturing and service sentiment surveys herald moderately slower growth. President Macron's next fight is with the greens trying to conquer the political centre
23. July 2019
USA: Existing home sales disappoint, but the monetary environment remains supportive
Britain: Manufacturing sentiment plunges to the lowest level since April 2010
22. July 2019
Taiwan: Weak export orders report is more evidence of a weak mainland economy
19. July 2019
USA: University of Michigan consumer survey continues to show upbeat households as they see no significant headwinds - and definitely not monetary headwind
Germany: Inflation at the factory gates falls sharply in June despite increasing labour costs
18. July 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey raises doubt about the credibility of the Federal Reserve. The short and long-term indicators jump. Employment index hits an all-time high
South Korea finally cuts policy rates as the country faces headwinds from all directions
Japan: Trade statistics show no signs of a rebound. Inventories are on the rise
17. July 2019
USA: Housing starts report disappoints in June, but the outlook remains upbeat according to the latest homebuilder survey
16. July 2019
USA: Very strong retail sales report discredits Fed Chairman Powell. This could turn into a significant policy mistake if manufacturing sentiment were to bounce back as well 
ZEW survey shows growing concern among investors regarding the extent of headwinds facing the German economy
Britain: The first profound impact of Brexit hits the shore, according to the June labour market report. The risk of recession in 2020 is on the rise
Brussels missed an opportunity to become a global player matching its size
15. July 2019
USA: Empire State manufacturing index bounces back in July after Fed Chairman Powell was 'bullied' into easing monetary policy
China: House price inflation slows as policymakers maintain tightening measures in the housing market
Chinese growth declined in the second quarter to the lowest level since the early 1990s
12. July 2019
USA: Producer price inflation remains benign despite import tariffs
China: Monetary statistics show no signs yet of aggressive easing measures
China: The June trade report pictures a weak economy. Trump is not rewarded by the Chinese to the extent 'promised by Beijing'
11. July 2019
USA: Core inflation increases as Fed Chairman Powell talks about a rate cut despite a soaring fiscal deficit
Turkey records a minor current account surplus as domestic demand has collapsed. The central bank governor is fired and close allies of President Erdogan are leaving the AK Party
10. July 2019
The French economy stands out from the crowd, but the Euro-zone's main growth engine is still down
Food for thought: In the past, inflation and higher interest rates created downturns. Today, are low interest rates creating the foundation for the next downturn?
China: Producer prices falling into the deflation zone indicates no signs of a manufacturing rebound
9. July 2019
USA: Small business sentiment declines after a strong rebound in the previous months. NFIB survey continues to show a very tight labour market
Japan: Nominal and real wages continue to contract despite historically low unemployment. The risk of recession is still high
8. July 2019
China's foreign exchange reserves stabilise, but for all the wrong reasons
Germany: A minor rebound in manufacturing activity in May does not change a gloomy outlook
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Sorensen from the Institute for Strategy at the Royal Danish Defence College about a wide range of global foreign policy issues linked to the Rise of China [FREE ACCESS]
5. July 2019
USA: Robust June labour market report rules out July rate cut
Germany: Industrial orders fall sharply as there are no signs of a rebound in demand. All factors point to a weak euro
4. July 2019
Euro-zone: Consumer spending disappoints in May despite cyclical tailwinds
3. July 2019
USA: Service sentiment index continues lower. The orders index falls sharply
Podcast interview with Morten Springborg, Thematic Specialist, about tech competition between China and the West, splinternet, 5G and how strong China's tech sector really is [FREE ACCESS]
Podcast interview with Casper Wichmann, China tech expert, about tech competition between China and the West, splinternet, 5G and how strong China's tech sector really is [FREE ACCESS]
A short note about the EU's top jobs decision: Compromise candidate Ursula von der Leyen is more political inaction. Christine Lagarde keeps the ECB Italian-French
China: Caixin service index declines. Anecdotal evidence of a much weaker economy
1. July 2019
There will be no 'daily macro' updates on July 2
USA: Manufacturing ISM index declines in June although less than market expectations. More worryingly, the ISM orders index fell again sharply
A short note on whether Huawei is a security or a commercial risk. The credibility of President Trump suffered significantly after the G-20 meeting
Bank of Japan Tankan survey shows more weakness than reflected in the monthly surveys; consumer confidence falls sharply in June
China: June PMI index stays in the contraction zone in spite of economic stimulus measures;  Xi Jinping and Donald Trump kick the can down the road, but $250 billion import tariffs remain
28. June 2019
Spain: Rajoy's economic reforms continue boosting growth despite a political mess. Europe turning left will soon dent fiscal credibility
Swiss economic indicators show an increased risk of a technical recession later in 2019; a harbinger of slower Euro-zone growth
Japan: Industrial production rose strongly in June despite extended Golden Week holidays
27. June 2019
EU survey: Euro-zone economic sentiment falls sharply in June; export downturn accelerates
Turkey: A sharp improvement in the economic confidence index does not change the 'double-dip recession scenario' - President Erdogan faces pressure from opposition and AKP
26. June 2019
USA: Durable goods orders continued to lose momentum in May despite the corporate tax cuts. The biggest obstacle to corporate spending is geopolitical uncertainty
France: Consumer sentiment continues to improve boosted by a better labour market and increasing real purchasing power, but the costs may be too high
Germany: Consumer climate deteriorates as households face increasing political uncertainty and a 'government of inaction' in Berlin
25. June 2019
USA: The Conference Board consumer confidence and new home sales statistics disappoint significantly to the downside
France: Service sentiment improves, but manufacturing headline index declines, as the export outlook index falls sharply in June
USA: The Dallas Fed manufacturing headline index plunges in June; corporate spending slows markedly
24. June 2019
Germany: IFO survey shows no signs of an upcoming rebound. Manufacturing sector moves closer to the 'recession zone'
Turkey: President Erdogan defeated in the rerun of the Istanbul election
21. June 2019
USA: Existing home sales report shows solid house price gains supported by low inventories of unsold 'new' homes
A short note on South Korea's 'first-20-days-exports' statistics: No signs of a global trade rebound
20. June 2019
USA: The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index fell sharply in June, but there are still no signs of an upcoming recession
Britain: Households continue to see solid support from real wages and a tight labour market, but the outlook is deteriorating
'China proxy': Taiwanese exports orders to mainland China plunge at the fastest rate since 2013
19. June 2019
EU: Monetary policy contradicting the climate challenge will continue to fuel populist parties. Germany shows what lies ahead
18. June 2019
USA: Housing starts surprise to the upside as the monetary environment improves. A dovish ECB complicates the policy task of the Federal Reserve
Germany: ZEW headline index plunges in June as the corporate sector faces several headwinds, not least sweeping climate policy changes
Turkey: Industrial output plunges ahead of the rerun of local elections in Istanbul. A 'double-dip recession' is in the pipeline
China: House prices continue higher; Beijing cannot afford falling asset prices as households face more headwinds 
17. June 2019
USA: The regional manufacturing Empire State headline index plunges in June. Corporate spending plans decline sharply as well
Euro-zone: Labour shortage boosts wage inflation in the first quarter of 2019. A dramatic political shift in Germany is underestimated by the financial market
USA: The White House's inconsistent foreign policy has created a 'world of disorder'
USA: Strong economic statistics make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut policy rates, although the situation could change dramatically in the second half of 2019
14. June 2019
+++There will only be delayed updates on June 14+++
China: The economy is rapidly losing momentum; aggressive monetary easing is in the pipeline, not least if the G20-meeting turns into a fiasco
13. June 2019
Euro-zone: Industrial output contracts in April, but there are no signs yet of a growth collapse
President Trump's war on several fronts could turn self-destructive
USA: The budget deficit soars as the 'sentiment boost' from the tax cuts has not yet emerged
12. June 2019
USA: Inflation remains subdued despite the threat of global supply chain disruption caused by the trade war
China: Monetary statistics show policymakers are nervous to make the same 'policy mistake' as in 2008-2009. This will change in the second half of 2019
China: Consumer price inflation increases propelled by food prices; inflation at the factory gates continues to decline. President Xi cannot afford to show weakness in Hongkong
11. June 2019
US small business sentiment jumps in May, as the labour market tightens, according to NFIB
Britain: The labour market shows tentative signs of slowing, but the best leading indicators see an increased risk of a recession in 2020
China: Exports boosted by 'frontloading' after new US tariffs threats; imports plunge. Beijing launches more aggressive stimulus measures
7. June 2019
There will be no updates on June 10 due to a public holiday in Denmark
USA: Surprisingly weak labour market report in May boosts the possibility of a significantly more dovish Federal Reserve
Germany: Manufacturing output plunges by a steep 2.5% in April as Berlin is headed towards a radical political shift towards the left
Japan: The Diffusion Index continues to bounce back, but dark clouds remain on the horizon
6. June 2019
USA: The April trade report shows a sharp decline in exports and imports; Trump waging trade war on several fronts will hit global growth in 2020
A short note on a rapidly changing political environment in Germany: The majority of voters prefer a 'red-red-green' government rather than the current 'Groko' coalition
Germany: Industrial orders fail to make a visible rebound in April. The outlook is weak due to the 'climate wave' in Europe, more nationalism in China and a US president believing in mercantilism
USA: ISM service survey shows a resilient economy despite the ongoing trade war. Trade tensions with EU will escalate as the 'climate wave' in Europe is like a red rag to a bull in the White House
4. June 2019
The Euro-zone unemployment rate declines in April to the lowest level since 2008. The risk of Groko collapse creates new uncertainty
Spain: The political situation turns less gloomy after Ciudadanos rejects the far-right Vox party
Podcast interview with China expert Professor Stig Thøgersen about the formation of public opinion in China, Xi Jinping, nationalism and the risk of an upcoming Taiwan crisis [FREE ACCESS]
Australia cuts policy rates as the economy faces headwinds from weak domestic demand, China as well as the United States
3. June 2019
USA: The ISM manufacturing index continues to weaken as the trade war escalates to a more dangerous level
Turkey: Inflation in May falls below market expectations, but stays at an elevated level
China: Caixin's manufacturing PMI index stays close to the 'contraction' zone; Beijing raises the stakes by making a blacklist of 'unreliable' foreign companies
31. May 2019
Japan: Strong hard data do not change the fact that the outlook is gloomy. Consumer confidence falls again sharply
China: PMI index falls sharply in May as the 'cold war' escalates. Is political aftermath in Beijing a possible outcome?
29. May 2019
Germany: Unemployment jumps at the same time as Merkel has apparently second thoughts about the CDU leadership transition
Sweden: Q1 growth surprises to the upside, but the outlook is weak as the Riksbank erodes households' real purchasing power
The US-China trade conflict shows that history often repeats itself - unfortunately
28. May 2019
US consumer confidence skyrockets in May. The labour market tightens, according to households
EU Commission survey shows surprisingly strong economic sentiment index in the Euro-zone in May. The British and the Swedish ESI indexes fall sharply
Turkey: The latest economic confidence index is a harbinger of an even deeper recession in 2019
Euro-zone: French consumer confidence jumps as German consumer sentiment falls. The long-term growth outlook remains weak
27. May 2019
European Parliament elections: The 'green wave' shows voters want sweeping measures to fight climate change 'now rather than tomorrow'
24. May 2019
USA: Durable goods orders fell in April. The best forward-looking indicators herald more weakness to come
A short note on the latest 'China proxies'
Global economic and political update
23. May 2019
USA: New home sales report still does not show signs of recession in 2020. The 'hawks' are gaining the upper hand in the White House
Germany IFO survey: Manufacturing weakness feeds into the service sector
France: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back; Euro-zone economy could make a 'mini bounce' in the coming months
Germany: Q1 GDP details indicate a stronger underlying economy than outlined by the headline number
22. May 2019
Japan: Surprisingly strong Reuters Tankan survey reduces the risk of recession in 2019
Euro-zone consumer confidence index jumps in May despite higher inflation
21. May 2019
USA: Existing house prices increase at the slowest rate since 2012 despite a favourable environment
Turkey: Consumer confidence plunges to a new record low. The fiscal deficit is soaring
China anecdotal update shows deteriorating sentiment on the mainland
20. May 2019
USA: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index hits the highest level since January 2004. The Federal Reserve is forced to stay the course
Japan: Surprisingly strong Q1 growth caused by a sharp decline in imports - the outlook remains weak
16. May 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows signs of 'moderate' growth in 2019 and slower growth in 2020; but no signs of recession; ‌Investors misjudge what the White House aims for
China: House prices rose again in April. Beijing is on a delicate balancing act in the housing market
Is China 'weaponising' its holdings of US government bonds? If so, the effect will be limited
15. May 2019
USA: Industrial output dropped in April as US politics turn 'China-hostile' across the board 
US retail sales disappoint, but 'lagging' households still face tailwinds in the short run. A full-blown trade war will lead to a recession in 2020 
Euro-zone: The economy 'survived' in Q1, but the outlook is gloomy, as the risk of a trade war with the United States is on the rise
Germany: Flash GDP Q1 growth rate was in line with market expectations, but underlying details will probably show significant inventory build-up
China: The statistical office 'decides' to show what is obvious on the mainland namely slowing growth
14. May 2019
Britain: 'Brexit' has not yet proven a 'mistake' ahead of European Parliament Elections
Germany: ZEW survey shows a sharp decline in the expectations index as USA and EU prepares for the next trade war
USA: Strong small business sentiment survey shows no signs of headwinds from the trade war
TODAY, THE UPDATES MAY BE DELAYED DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT REUTERS-REFINITIV-DATASTREAM
13. May 2019
The USA-China 'trade war' is getting closer to a point of no return as 'hawks' gain the upper hand
10. May 2019
Italy: Industrial production contracts as absolute real GDP is still only at the 2009-level
Japanese workers' cash earnings falling at the fastest pace since 2015 and soaring inflation expectations hit consumer confidence in April
9. May 2019
USA: Producer price inflation remains subdued but the labour market is tightening and import tariffs could boost PPI and CPI
Spain: The effect of the 'Rajoy-reform process' is evaporating. Industrial output drops sharply in March
China: Monetary statistics in April support the case of a 'false dawn'. China is vulnerable if import tariffs are raised on Friday
China-USA: Are investors and the corporate sector prepared for geopolitical risks on the rise?
8. May 2019
Germany: The construction sector boosts industrial production in March. The outlook remains weak, according to the IFO survey
China: April trade report continues to show a very weak export sector. Do not count on Beijing and Washington to do the 'right thing' as other factors are at play
7. May 2019
Global: Geopolitical risks are on the rise. Is this included in equity risk premium calculations?
Germany industrial orders excluding 'big items' fell sharply in March
6. May 2019
Germany: Engineering orders fall by 10% in Q1; no signs of an upcoming rebound
The China-USA trade deal is 'no stronger than the next tweet from President Trump'. The latest tweet comes after an eventful weekend in Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and Israel
3. May 2019
USA: ISM service survey indicates significantly slower growth in the second half of 2019
USA: Robust April labour market report, but forward-looking indicators herald weakness in the second half of 2019
Euro-zone: Higher headline inflation will put a drag on private consumption; service inflation hits the highest level since 2011
Turkey: Inflation will not go away as the country has 'two central bankers'
2. May 2019
USA: 'Under-estimated' productivity rose strongly in Q1; this was the fastest annual rate of increase since 2009
No signs of relief in the Swedish and Swiss PMI surveys show that this is not a normal slowdown
Germany: Household spending at risk despite strong fundamentals
1. May 2019
USA: A disappointingly weak  ISM survey makes monetary policy a delicate balancing act
USA: Strong ADP employment report is 'supposed to' silence White House talk about a rate cut
30. April 2019
USA: Consumer confidence bounces back; a sharp increase in the share of households seeing 'plentiful-of-jobs' indicates a tight labour market
USA: Employment costs are on the rise, but the rate of increase is low considering a historically low unemployment rate
The Euro-zone 'appears' to survive a tough first quarter; Italy avoids recession
France: Higher inventories boost growth in the first quarter of 2019; the outlook remains weak 
China: Manufacturing PMI indexes decline despite 'stimulus measures', which do not hit the shores of the private corporate sector
29. April 2019
Euro-zone: Money supply accelerates at the same time as loan demand declines
Euro-zone survey shows yet another steep decline in the ESI index; industrial confidence index drops to the lowest since September 2014
China: 'Revised' corporate profit recovers in March propelled by a rebound in SOEs' earnings, but data remain incoherent
26. April 2019
USA: Strong headline GDP growth rate does not tell the full story; Q1 shows weakest real domestic demand since 2013
Japan: Industrial production drops at the fastest rate since March 2015
25. April 2019
USA: Durable goods orders continue to show robust corporate spending
Spain's national election will create one more political problem in the European Union  
Watch out for South Korea: Economic contraction in Q1 will lead to a rate cut; the risk of a '2008-like' won sell-off is on the rise
24. April 2019
Australia: Low inflation, falling house prices, the 'missing China effect' and collateral damage from US-China trade deal add downwards pressure on the Australian dollar
Germany: IFO survey pictures an economy on the edge of recession; manufacturing sentiment drops to the lowest level since 2012
France: Manufacturing sentiment drops to the lowest level since June 2015
23. April 2019
USA: New home sales report still shows no signs of an upcoming recession
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey heralds short-term strength followed by manufacturing contraction in Q1-2020
'China proxies' show no signs yet of a rebound in manufacturing activity
17. April 2019
US trade deficit declines in February as front-loading in H2-2018 and weak demand in Q1 put a drag on imports in H1-2019
Japan: The misery continues
China: Strong industrial production and construction in March 'save' the Q1 GDP report, but the 'costs-of-growth' are on the rise
16. April 2019
USA: Industrial output disappoints in March; there are no significant signs of a rebound
German ZEW survey shows investors see 'hope' as the main driver - 'Facts' still point further downwards
China's highly manipulated house prices rose in March - Beijing walks a delicate balancing act
15. April 2019
US Empire State headline index bounces back, but the six-month outlook index plunges
Unplugged 'Travel Notes': President Xi Jinping moves backwards as the Chinese people moves forwards 
Turkey is an accident waiting to happen on the edge of Europe: Unemployment jumps to the highest level since 2009
China: The latest economic data still mirror an L-shaped growth 'recovery' which was confirmed by last week's trip to the mainland
5. April 2019
There will be no updates from April 8 to April 12, as the editor will be on a trip to China
USA: March labour report is neither too hot nor too cold, but the 'Q3 and beyond' employment outlook is weak
Japan: Wages decline despite the lowest unemployment rate since the early 1990s. The outlook remains weak and consumer confidence is on the decline
Germany: Industrial output data better than market expectations, but the IFO outlook remains weak
4. April 2019
Turkey now faces several headwinds at the same time. Inflation and politics will create a new lira sell-off
Germany: Industrial orders plunge in February. The manufacturing outlook remains weak, according to IFO
3. April 2019
USA: The ISM service index drops in March after a surprisingly strong February survey. A strong employment index continues to show a tight labour market
USA: A weak ADP Employment in March was partially mitigated by an up-revised February number. A lagging labour market will continue to tighten in 2019
Euro-zone: Strong retail sales as households are not yet exposed to headwinds
China: The Caixin service PMI index bounces back after a steep decline in February. The debt situation worsens, according to CASS
2. April 2019
USA: In contrast to consumer spending, corporate spending is not expected to bounce back in 2019
Euro-zone: Producer price inflation heading significantly lower will keep monetary policy accommodative in the foreseeable future
Presentation: The most disruptive time since World War II
1. April 2019
USA: Manufacturing ISM index bounces back, but the details show only a weak rebound
USA: February retail sales report boosts the risk of zero growth in Q1
Europe: The rebound is long in coming. Swiss manufacturing PMI index falls sharply close to contraction
The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey shows a steep decline in manufacturing sentiment
China: Both leading manufacturing PMI surveys show a sharp rebound in sentiment in March
29. March 2019
USA: New home sales report is still not a harbinger of recession. This also makes it difficult for the Fed to change monetary policy
Spain is riding high on Rajoy's reforms, but the foundation for a stronger far-right is on the rise
Japan: Industrial output increases more than expected in February, but the outlook remains gloomy
28. March 2019
There were no Daily Macro updates on Thursday, March 28
27. March 2019
USA: The trade deficit will decline in the first quarter as a consequence of front-loading in 2018. A 'sustainable' trade deal seems highly unlikely
Italy: Manufacturing sentiment continues to contract. Berlin-Paris hypocrisy will keep Rome on path of even stronger China-Italy co-operation
China: A sharp decline in corporate profits reflects a weaker economy than perceived by global investors
26. March 2019
USA: Consumer confidence plunges in March. The share of households seeing plentiful-of-jobs also falls sharply
USA: Housing starts and Case-Shiller reports continue to show weakness in the housing sector
France: Business sentiment shows only tentative signs of growth stabilisation in March. 'Money talks' as Xi Jinping visits France
A short note on anecdotal evidence from China: Deterioration or Stabilisation?
25. March 2019
USA: Dallas Fed manufacturing survey shows no signs of a sustainable bounce in sentiment. The capital expenditure plans index plunges
Brazil: The news flow erodes Bolsonaro's reform process
Germany: IFO survey shows a sharp bounce in service and retailer sentiment, but manufacturing optimism continues to decline
22. March 2019
USA: Existing home sales skyrocketed in February as households benefit from falling mortgage yields
Morning Briefing email problem solved
Japan: Official inflation is benign even though households' inflation expectations hit the highest level since July 2015
21. March 2019
USA: The details in the Philadelphia Fed survey boost the probability of recession in H1-2020 which is reinforced by six more months of Fed balance sheet reduction
Britain: Economic statistics continue to defy 'hell breaks loose' scenario
Berlin and Paris act as China turns into a threat to EU's 'single market' 
20. March 2019
China: Taiwanese and other 'activity indicators' do not show signs of stronger growth on the mainland
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey slowly follows the same path as the Diffusion Index, which boosts the risk of recession in H1
19. March 2019
Weak US factory orders in January - There are surprisingly few signs of a rebound in sentiment in the regional surveys
Germany: ZEW survey shows tentative signs that the economy might have hit rock bottom - Belt-and-Road-Initiative poses a 'threat' to German and French champions
18. March 2019
Japanese trade report offers no hope yet that China could soon 'save the world'
By Invitation: Order in Xi Jinping's Parliament
15. March 2019
THERE WILL BE NO UPDATES ON MARCH 15
China: Monthly house price inflation continues to slow but Beijing and local authorities will prevent outright price decline
14. March 2019
USA: The New home sales report in January does not give cause for recession concern in 2019
China: January-February economic statistics show weakness - The risk of lower residential house prices is on the rise unless PBOC acts more aggressively
13. March 2019
USA: Durable goods orders report still shows no signs of an upcoming recession
Euro-zone: Industrial output bounces back in January after a significant decline in inventories - The outlook deteriorates as Rome, Portugal and Malta opt for China
Japan: Machinery orders report boosts the probability of a recession in H1. China cannot help Japanese exporters because of only 'reluctant' easing measures
12. March 2019
Brazil: Surprisingly subdued inflation supports the currency, but Bolsonaro's temper poses a risk to the planned economic reforms
USA: Benign inflation continues to support US households' real purchasing power
USA: Small business sentiment survey shows tentative signs of a rebound. It will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to avoid the impact of quantitative tightening
11. March 2019
US January retail sales report surprises to the upside but an already weak December report was revised down
Germany: Industrial report disappoints in January. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer challenges Merkel and Paris with her own political agenda
Turkey plunges officially into recession in Q4. The outlook remains gloomy
China: Weak monetary expansion is partly because the hands of monetary decision-makers are tied up by the trade negotiations
8. March 2019
USA: A weak non-farm payroll number was expected but not that weak. Wage inflation is still on the rise and the unemployment rate fell in February
Germany: Industrial orders plunge as demand declines across the board in January
China: January-February trade report shows the boomerang 'frontloading in 2018' is now coming back with a vengeance
ECB press conference is a reminder to investors that the economy is on the same path as Japan. Political inaction in Brussels and Berlin make the periphery turn to the One Belt One Road Initiative
7. March 2019
Euro-zone: Q4 GDP details show a significant negative contribution from inventories
Japan: The Cabinet Office's 'Diffusion Index' heralds a deeper and prolonged period of contraction or recession
6. March 2019
USA: The trade deficit inflating is not a huge surprise considering the current policy mix. The ISM survey heralds an even higher deficit in H1
USA: Robust ADP employment growth in February. The growth outlook indicated by the ISM surveys heralds robust employment growth in the first half of 2019
Australia: Growth disappoints in Q4. The risk of economic contraction in Q1 is on the rise
5. March 2019
USA: Service sentiment jumps in February. ISM orders index skyrocketed to the highest level since 2005. The survey will keep the Fed biased towards tightening in 2019
Euro-zone: Lower inflation supports retail sales in January but the 'window of relief' is closing because of a higher oil price
China: Caixin service index falls sharply as Beijing lowers growth target. Beijing plans to fight the unavoidable
4. March 2019
Euro-zone: Benign inflation at the factory gates will make ECB's Draghi talk the euro lower as politicians will fail to take action
Turkey: Disturbingly high inflation and no signs of an economic rebound could trigger a new lira sell-off ahead of the upcoming local elections
1. March 2019
USA: The rebound in the ISM manufacturing sentiment index failed to continue in February. A steep decline in the production index should give rise to concern
European and US business sentiment: A short-lived rebound followed by the same problems as in November 2018
China: Caixin manufacturing survey shows a strong rebound in the domestic orders index
Japan: The unemployment rate has hit rock bottom as the economy will contract in the first half of 2019
Highly recommended: Podcast about the future of the European Union. Interview with thematic specialist Morten Springborg from CWorldWide [FREE ACCESS]
28. February 2019
USA: Surprisingly robust Q4 GDP growth report is also supported by the underlying details
Sweden: Strong net-exports boost growth in the last quarter of 2018
China: Manufacturing PMI index drops again as export sentiment takes a beating but there are tentative signs of stimulus measures
27. February 2019
India-Pakistan conflict escalation challenges US foreign policy
EU business and consumer survey shows tentative signs of 'stabilisation'
Italy has all the ingredients to trigger a serious crisis. The ECB is no longer there to help
A short update of the global outlook: The stock market could soon face the same situation as in November 2018
26. February 2019
USA: Housing starts report underscores very weak December-January. Federal Reserve U-turn will create short-term rebound which will be followed by two more rate hikes in 2019
France: Consumer confidence bounces back strongly as Yellow Vests demonstrations disappear and the labour market is strong. Inflation expectations soar
Germany: The economy faces the risk of 'technical recession' but households are still exposed to tailwinds
25. February 2019
China-USA trade deal: The interpretation and what comes next?
22. February 2019
Germany: A disappointing IFO survey will add more fuel to CDU's 'Germany First' strategy
China: House prices continued to increase in January, but the outlook is cloudy as 'excess supply' is on the rise
21. February 2019
USA: Durable goods orders are forecast to contract in the first quarter of 2019, but no signs yet of a collapse in corporate spending
USA: A steep decline in the Philadelphia Fed headline index shows profound manufacturing weakness in the first half of 2019, but no signs of recession
China: Weak PBOC balance sheet data raises doubt about the strength of the bank lending report in January
France: The economy is supported by improving domestic sentiment, which is just enough to offset global headwinds
20. February 2019
Turkey: Consumer confidence continuing to decline spells trouble for the lira
Japan: Frontloading in 2018 has turned into a boomerang coming back with a vengeance in 2019
Euro-zone: Dutch consumer confidence declining to the lowest level since February 2015 bodes ill for European private consumption in H1
19. February 2019
A short note on the US-China trade negotiations: Do not underestimate Beijing's long-term determination
Germany: ZEW survey shows no signs of a rebound. Berlin faces reality check
Britain: The economy performs relatively well in comparison with other EU countries but long-term risks are building. A comeback to the 'Social Democratic Party'?
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey takes a significant beating in February
18. February 2019
Japan: Tokyo is forced to walk further out on the ice floe
15. February 2019
USA: Consumer sentiment bouncing back brings some relief after a disappointing December retail sales report
USA: Manufacturing output falls sharply in January. The best forward-looking indicators are harbingers of a rebound in April or May
China: Distorted January data shows only 'tentative signs' of stronger lending
China: Inflation report is a reflection of a very weak economy. A trade deal is needed but Beijing cannot afford to make significant concessions
14. February 2019
USA: Surprisingly weak retail sales report raises several new questions in the stock market. Too weak consumer spending overshadows Federal Reserve sitting tight
Turkey: Industrial output contracts at the fastest rate since 2009. The risk of a deep recession is on the rise
Japan: The economy bounces back in Q4 but it fails to recoup economic contraction seen in Q3 
China: Lunar New Year distorted trade report continues to show underlying weakness
Germany: The economy escapes recession as growth was zero in Q4. The outlook is gloomy and Berlin has no strategy
13. February 2019
USA: Moderate headline inflation provides a boost to workers' real purchasing power. A weak trade deal will face severe domestic criticism
Brazil: Buoyant business and consumer sentiment remain to be seen in real economic activity. Hospitalised President trigger an internal power struggle
Euro-zone: Industrial production plunges at the fastest rate since 2009. The political response should give rise to concern
South Korea: Unemployment rate jumps to the highest level since 2009
12. February 2019
USA: NFIB small business six-month outlook index plunges to the lowest level since the Presidential election in November 2016
11. February 2019
Britain: The economy barely expanded in the last quarter of 2018. The outlook for the first half of 2019 deteriorates
Germany: Tensions are on the rise in Berlin as SPD moves to the left and CDU turns to the right
8. February 2019
Brazil: Inflation remains surprisingly benign in January. Pension draft plans to raise the minimum retirement age significantly to 65
Italy: The recession will be more profound and longer
Global: The worst political situation since WWII
Japan: The economy faces an increasing risk of technical recession in H1
7. February 2019
Spain: Industrial output plunges in December. Brussels sponsored fiscal stimulus plan is highly likely ahead of the EP elections
Germany: Manufacturing sector has moved into the 'contraction zone'. Policy-mistakes are, not surprisingly, in the pipeline
6. February 2019
USA: November trade deficit with China hits a new record high. A 'temporary' trade deal is highly likely but not sustainable
Germany: Industrial orders fell in December at the fastest rate since 2012. State capitalism appears to be the answer to economic headwinds
Highly recommended: Podcast about China - Interview with Klaus Anker Petersen, Brand House, about investment opportunities in digitising China - 31 min [FREE ACCESS]
5. February 2019
USA: ISM service index declines more than market expectations, but a soaring employment index indicates robust labour demand
Sweden: More evidence of an abrupt decline in economic momentum adds more 'Riksbank risk' to the currency
Australia: Growth slowdown gains momentum ahead of federal elections
4. February 2019
A second short update of the Outlook 2019: Complacency prevails in the money and bond market
Turkey: Stubbornly high inflation spells trouble for President Erdogan ahead of local elections in March  
1. February 2019
USA: Manufacturing ISM index bounces back. Production index skyrockets
USA: A very strong January employment report, but the December data was revised down sharply. Low wage inflation
Sweden: PMI survey heralds weak European growth. Broad-based domestic weakness makes a 'fundamentally' cheap Swedish currency vulnerable
China: Caixin PMI survey is a precise reflection of anecdotal evidence from the mainland. PBOC could cut policy rates within the next two weeks
31. January 2019
USA: New home sales bouncing back sharply in November provides relief to the stock market
Brazil: Households are turning highly upbeat about future employment. A cheap currency provides some 'protection' to Brazilian assets
Euro-zone: Growth slows significantly in Q4. Italy plunges into recession
China: Beijing's fiscal and monetary stimulus measures fail to trigger a sharp rebound in manufacturing business sentiment
30. January 2019
USA: ADP Employment Report showing a very strong labour market keeps the Federal Reserve on a path of monetary normalisation
EU business and consumer survey shows steeper-than-expected decline in Euro-zone sentiment, but the details are 'less downbeat'
France: Q4 GDP growth was better than expected because of the country's low exposure to foreign demand
'Sputnik moment' in the United States will make it an uphill struggle to save the relationship between Washington and Beijing
29. January 2019
USA: Consumer confidence drops sharply in January, but households continue to see a strong labour market
France: Consumer confidence bounces back as inflation expectations plunge. Yellow Vests 'party' hits the far-right and far-left
Australia: Business confidence plunges
28. January 2019
Why Venezuela matters in the new Cold War era
Euro-zone: ECB's bank lending survey is a harbinger of significantly slower growth
China: Corporate profit takes a beating in December. PBOC's chief economist criticises the current economic policy
25. January 2019
Brazil: The corporate sector and households have given President Bolsonaro a warm welcome. The real is cheap
Turkey: Economic confidence index continues to herald recession in Q1 as President Erdogan continues to fish in troubled waters
Germany: A steep decline in the IFO expectations index is a harbinger of negative growth in the first half of 2019
A short update of the Outlook 2019: What comes next?
23. January 2019
There will be no updates on January 24
USA: The regional manufacturing Richmond Fed index bounces back in January. Corporate spending plans remain intact
France: Business sentiment stabilises as President Macron 'makes peace' with the Yellow Vests
22. January 2019
USA: Existing home sales decline much faster than predicted. House price inflation declines again to the lowest level since 2012
Britain: The labour market remains tight. A second referendum would make the Bank of England significantly behind the curve
Dutch consumer confidence index falling sharply to the lowest level since 2015 spells trouble for the Euro-zone economy in 2019
South Korea: The details in the Q4 GDP report provide a gloomy outlook. The won is at risk!
21. January 2019
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows a steep decline in manufacturing sentiment, but the service sentiment index stays at an elevated level
Taiwanese export orders plunge in December - European demand plummets
China records the slowest growth rate since 2009 - Has the central bank made the first steps towards QE?
18. January 2019
USA: The political mess in Washington gains the upper hand in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey
USA: A sharp increase in manufacturing output was caused by a steep increase in motor vehicles and parts output
How to subscribe to Daily Macro podcasts on your tablet or smartphone
Japan: Falling inflation will benefit households' real purchasing power, but growth outlook remains weak as corporate spending declines
17. January 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows a rebound in manufacturing sentiment, but the employment index falls
Britain: Real estate agents survey herald a steep decline in house prices in 2019
16. January 2019
Podcast: Interview with Professor Joergen Delman about China, Xi Jinping, the intrusion of the state in the private sector and other issues [FREE ACCESS]
Britain: Inflation declines in December but households' inflation expectations jump to the highest level since 1994 - A second referendum is highly likely
AUDIO-PODCAST
China: Newly-built house price increases in tier-1 cities boost the national house price index although this is not a reflection of the real situation
15. January 2019
USA: The Empire State manufacturing index plunges in January as the economy faces several man-made headwinds
Brazil: The election of Jair Bolsonaro boosting business and consumer sentiment gives rise to raise the growth forecast
China: Weak monetary statistics underscore why Beijing is expected to launch aggressive fiscal and monetary easing measures
Euro-zone trade surplus declines but hits a new record high with the United States - US ambassador threatens German companies with Nordstream2 sanctions
14. January 2019
Turkey moves deeper into recession - Industrial production falls sharply in November
Euro-zone: Industrial production drops at the fastest annual rate since November 2012 - The probability of Brussels-sponsored fiscal expansion is on the rise
China: Exports and imports fell sharply in December as the aftermath of front-loading export orders slowly emerges - Xi Jinping faces domestic criticism
11. January 2019
USA: A sharp decline in energy prices pulls headline inflation lower to the benefit of households real purchasing power but the liquidity situation will remain tight in 2019
Italy: A sharp decline in industrial output will intensify tensions with Brussels as Rome will soon need a scapegoat
Spain joins the bandwagon of falling industrial output; Vox turns into a significant domestic political player
10. January 2019
France: Industrial production takes a beating a day after the leading consumer confidence index plunged
China: A steep decline in producer prices is a reflection of a deteriorating growth environment
Euro-zone survey shows a sharp decline in business and consumer sentiment in December
7. January 2019
There will be no updates on January 8 and 9
A short note on the possibility of a trade compromise between Washington and Beijing
USA: ISM service index falls sharply in December making monetary policy a delicate balancing act after a strong employment report
Germany: Industrial orders decline at the fastest rate since July 2012
4. January 2019
A very strong US employment report keeps the Federal Reserve on track for more rate hikes in 2019
A short note on the PBoC's decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio by 100 basis points
China: Caixin service index improves but remains close to the lowest since 2009 - Beijing 'talks' about easing but more aggressive measures will soon be needed
3. January 2019
USA: The manufacturing ISM index plunges in December to the lowest level since November 2016 - The orders and production indexes take a significant beating
A robust but 'lagging' labour market will still play a significant role for the Federal Reserve
Turkey: A stronger lira reduces inflation, but it is too late to prevent recession ahead of local elections
A short note on a sharply higher yen
2. January 2019
A steep decline in the leading Swedish PMI index is a harbinger of significant weakness in Europe's manufacturing sector in H1-2019
The 'world sitting on a powder keg' - January 8-9, 2019
China: Manufacturing headline index drops into the contraction zone - the economy faces significant headwinds in H1
A few thoughts after a wild Christmas to New Year stock market session
21. December 2018
Insightview wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year
US durable goods orders statistics and forward-looking 'capex' indicators are not yet providing evidence of an upcoming recession, according to many investors
Euro-zone: A sharp decline in Dutch consumer confidence in December is a harbinger of a drop in the Euro-zone consumer confidence index
France: Manufacturing sentiment declines to the lowest level since November 2016; private consumption takes a beating
20. December 2018
USA: The underlying details in the Philadelphia Fed survey support Powell's monetary stance of more rate hikes in 2019 - but the survey was not a harbinger of recession, at least not yet