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Public
19. August 2021
Japan: Business sentiment jumps across the board despite soaring Covid cases and global supply chain challenges
A short note on the consequences of Beijing becoming 'socialist', this time, with 'real socialist characteristics'
USA: Tapering combined with a recovery in inflation and real growth rapidly reduces excess liquidity to the disadvantage of asset prices
18. August 2021
The global bottlenecks will not go away because the Delta variant will aggravate the mismatch between the supply and demand sides. The US Federal Reserve will soon have to make a difference
17. August 2021
USA: The July retail sales report disappoints, but it is difficult to say whether this is caused by higher inflation, Covid or a shortage of supply
Britain: The labour market recovers strongly. The share of companies 'planning to hire' and 'unfilled vacancies' jump to the highest level on record
16. August 2021
China: The economy is losing momentum. Beijing pursues a strategy of 'targeted tightening and universal easing'
USA: Consumer sentiment takes a beating due to soaring Covid cases and self-inflicted headwinds in the form of rising inflation
13. August 2021
Germany: The next Bundestag could turn out to be the most unruly parliament since the Weimar Republic
12. August 2021
USA: 'Transitory' producer price inflation continues gaining momentum for longer, as the Federal Reserve considers how to make a U-turn without losing face
Euro-zone: Man-made bottlenecks in the global supply chain puts a lid on manufacturing output
11. August 2021
US inflation report provides relief, but too much demand hunting too few goods will keep inflation at an elevated level beyond 'transitory'
A divorce between monetary and fiscal policymakers seems inevitable. Soon, central banks are forced to call a spade a spade
Sell the German 30-year government bond future
10. August 2021
USA: Small business survey shows tentative signs of stagflation. The Federal Reserve still faces a tiny window of opportunity, but it is closing rapidly
Germany: ZEW economic sentiment index falls sharply in August, as the side-effects of aggressive monetary and fiscal easing hit the shores
Australia: Business sentiment plunges, as Australia gives lessons to Europe and US on what to expect if we do not get it right over the coming winter
USA: JOLTS report underscores dissent at the Federal Reserve. The missing link between aggressive stimulus measures and 'climate change.'
9. August 2021
Podcast interview with Casper Wichmann, China expert: Who is next in Beijing's crackdown on the corporate sector?
China: Benign inflation 'sponsored' by falling pork prices opens a window of opportunity for more monetary easing - but this is a delicate balancing act due to soaring factory gates inflation
6. August 2021
USA: A strong labour market report will be followed by an even stronger report in August and September adding upward pressure on wages
Germany: The economy shows classic late-cycle symptoms although the recovery has just started. Do not expect help from container shipping lines in 2021
5. August 2021
France: There are absolutely no signs of improvement in public sector finances despite a recovering economy
Germany: Industrial orders inflated by 'big items'. The problem is not the demand side but bottlenecks in the global supply chain
Brazil raises policy rates by 100 basis points. More in the pipeline as the independent central bank, BCB, provides lessons to 'old' central banks in the developed world
4. August 2021
USA: Service sentiment jumps to a new all-time high, while inflation pressure increases to the highest since 2005
Euro-zone: Retail sales report shows strong consumer spending in June, but households will soon see headwinds in Q3 from broad-based inflation pressure
3. August 2021
Euro-zone: Producer price inflation hits the highest level since the early 1990s. No signs of 'transitory' as the supply side has yet to respond to stronger 'transitory demand'
Turkey is 'cornered' with no emergency exits
2. August 2021
USA: The manufacturing ISM index fell in July, as companies are 'short of everything'. The 'solution' is apparently more stimulus measures
Sweden: PMI survey shows inflation pressure increasing to a new all-time high as central banks underestimate the time lag of monetary decisions. Container rates 'out of China' jump by 11% in July
China: Beijing facing several out-of-control headwinds makes a corporate-hostile policy misplaced - or the 'wrong timing'
30. July 2021
US personal income and consumption report shows elevated inflation pressure but not enough to worry the Federal Reserve, at least not yet
Euro-zone Q2 growth propelled higher by countries in the periphery despite a slow rebound in tourism
France: The economy shows only a muted rebound in Q2 after flat growth in Q1. Real purchasing power erosion poses a bigger short-term threat than the delta-variants
29. July 2021
USA: Q2 GDP report disappoints, not least due to a record-high GDP deflator. More 'transitory' inflation is in the pipeline. Is stagflation around the corner?
EU Commission survey: Soaring household inflation expectations hit the highest level since 2012, as ECB policy turns 'demand destructive'
France: Factory-gate inflation continues gaining momentum sponsored by a European Central Bank increasingly out of touch with the reality on the ground
28. July 2021
France: The 'net effect' of aggressive global stimulus measures are slowly creating headwinds to households - Insee
Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will, once again, be forced to admit that he was wrong. Richmond Fed's 'prices paid' index skyrockets in July
27. July 2021
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey shows significant inflation pressure but not necessarily 'demand destructive' - at least not yet
USA: The corporate spending recovery is still intact, but it has, so far, been a disappointment considering excessively loose monetary policy
South Korea: Strong Q2 growth makes leeway for the Bank of Korea to raise policy rates in August
China's corporate sector sees plenty of headwinds. Now, the education sector feels the heat from Beijing. Even Stephen Roach warns about the direction of Beijing
26. July 2021
USA: New home sales report shows more signs that the Federal Reserve is slowly turning into the main sponsor of headwinds to the economy
Germany: IFO survey underscores the ECB's policy mistake by focusing on the demand side. Bottlenecks in the supply chain are the main problem, according to IFO
23. July 2021
Soon, the margin squeeze in the manufacturing sector could also hit the service sector sponsored by irresponsible central banks out of touch with economic reality
22. July 2021
USA: Existing home prices continued to increase rapidly in June, but house price inflation has peaked
France: Business sentiment continues to improve, as demand is no longer a problem. 'Supply difficulties' skyrocket to the highest since 2000
Perversely, at the same time ECB's Lagarde considers new stimulus measures, the Dutch unemployment rate approaches an all-time low and home prices an all-time high
21. July 2021
Britain is walking a delicate balancing act as higher inflation reduces the room for maneuvring
The 'Australian case' is a warning to Europe and the United States to prepare for 'winter is coming'
20. July 2021
Taiwan and South Korea continue to benefit from a 'cutting corners policy' in the United States and Europe 
Germany: Producer price inflation hits the highest level since January 1982. Core inflation also hits a new record high
Covid-update: Is 'winter coming' before 'summer has even started?'
19. July 2021
USA: Aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures turn counterproductive. Households' inflation expectations jump, according to UoM consumer sentiment survey
16. July 2021
USA: Retail sales jump in June, as households see plenty of tailwinds, but inflation poses a problem unless wages are on the rise
The fundamental support for the US dollar is eroding rapidly
15. July 2021
USA: The regional Philadelphia Fed survey continues to show solid growth and inflation at an elevated level
China's economy shows robust growth in Q2, but officials warn about dark clouds on the horizon
14. July 2021
USA: The Federal Reserve ignoring soaring inflation as 'transitory' could be in for a significant surprise because the supply side stays put
Britain: Inflation continuing upward trend in June creates the foundation for monetary U-turn later in 2021
13. July 2021
USA: Inflation jumps beyond market expectations in June, as 'transitory' turns into 'transitory for longer'. Core inflation hits the highest level since 1991
USA: NFIB survey shows bottlenecks and 'inflation everywhere', but no signs of higher corporate spending
China: The June trade report shows a buoyant economy, but other factors may also be at play when it comes to strong imports
Global Chart Update
12. July 2021
Japan: A sharp increase in machinery orders shows the rebound is on track shortly before the general election - but this is not a strong recovery
China's RRR cut is more than just a 'technical move'. Beijing fears an abrupt growth slowdown. China in easing mode changes the situation
9. July 2021
Britain: Multiple bottlenecks and labour shortage rather than new Covid variants put a lid on growth
China: A benign inflation picture opens a welcome window of opportunity for monetary policymakers in Beijing at the right time
8. July 2021
Japan's Economy Watcher Survey shows a strong rebound in service sentiment, but the long-term outlook is weak. Japan's is a must-read case study for EU and US policymakers
Podcast interview with China expert Joergen Delman: The Party that was not meant to be
7. July 2021
Recommendation: Taking 'significantly reduced' profit on short US 30-year bond future
Germany: Industrial output also disappoints in May, as bottlenecks put a drag on growth. That said, the growth outlook remains robust
6. July 2021
USA: ISM service survey disappoints, but inflation pressure stays at the highest level since 2005
Spain: The economic rebound is on track, but fiscal support measures from Brussels hit the shores far too late
Germany: Notoriously volatile industrial orders drop in May, but the 2021 outlook remains strong
5. July 2021
Turkey: Consumer prices rose sharply in June. PPI inflation jumps to 43% year-on-year
China: Caixin service PMI index drops to the lowest level since April 2020. Didi becomes the latest target of Beijing
2. July 2021
US labour market report: There are plenty of job offers, but the labour force bounces back far too slowly
Euro-zone: Producer prices jump at the fastest pace since 1997. Inflation pressure will stay for longer as long as suppliers believe in the 'transitory narrative'
The Bank of Korea will soon start the global 'monetary reversal game' - although the process has already started in the United States
1. July 2021
USA: Manufacturing sentiment stays at an elevated level, but inflation pressure continues making a new record high
Japan: The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey shows improvement but at a much slower pace than in the United States and Europe
30. June 2021
USA: A significant mismatch between the supply and the demand sides in the labour market puts a lid on actual employment growth, according to the ADP Employment report
China: Port congestion, the resurgence of Covid19 in Guangdong and Beijing's 'intervention' in the commodity market put a drag on PMI surveys
29. June 2021
Germany: Benign consumer price inflation in June, but households' inflation expectations jump to the highest since 2011
EU survey: Euro-zone economic sentiment index hits the highest in 21 years. Industrial and consumer inflation expectations jump
Sweden: Economic sentiment jumps to a new record high - and the same applies to inflation pressure
France: Consumer confidence jumps to the highest since March 2020. Employment expectations skyrocket
25. June 2021
USA: PCE inflation moves higher as inflation pressure is broadening
Germany: Households turning significantly more upbeat about the economy will create very strong growth in Q3
24. June 2021
The inflation storyboard: The Federal Reserve decides the outcome of 'part one' and 'part two'
Germany: IFO survey shows economic acceleration. Inflation pressure is on the rise
France: The composite business sentiment index jumps to the highest since 2007. Inflation pressure hits the highest since 1990
23. June 2021
USA: Affordability puts a lid on new home sales in May adding upward pressure on the number of unsold homes
Podcast interview: What have central banks done to the business cycle? An interview with Professor Torben M Andersen, former chairman of the Danish government's advisory Covid19 group
22. June 2021
USA: Existing home sales remain buoyant and prices are skyrocketing
Britain: The CBI industrial order index increases to the highest since 1988 while inflation expectations jump to the highest in the last 40 years
Euro-zone: Soaring Dutch consumer confidence is more evidence of a strong Euro-zone rebound in the second half of 2021
21. June 2021
USA: A 'bullish flattening' of the yield curve is not part of the storyboard - at least not yet
Germany and France: Political 'status quo' is not leading to long-overdue changes
18. June 2021
Germany: Core producer price inflation hits a new record high. The recovery in the labour market could trigger a monetary U-turn faster than expected by investors
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows short- and long-term inflation pressure at the highest since 1989. Monetary policy will prove 'transitory' but not inflation
16. June 2021
THERE WILL BE NO UPDATES ON JUNE 17
USA: The housing market is amidst an unfamiliar situation, as the Federal Reserve's weird monetary policy poses the biggest risk to the recovery
China: Anecdotal and statistical evidence shows a robust domestic economy benefiting from a China-hostile world and 'too good to be true' overseas stimulus measures
Britain: Inflation pressure gains momentum in May even though the 'real recovery' has not even started
15. June 2021
USA: Soon, producer prices staying at an elevated level will feed into consumer prices
A short note on container freight rates 'out of China'
Britain: A strong economic rebound combined with labour shortages boosts wages. The 'delta variant' could make 'some noise'
14. June 2021
Brazil is headed towards significantly higher policy rates as inflation hits the highest level since 2016 
11. June 2021
USA: Consumer confidence improves in June. Households see plenty of tailwinds in 2021
A short follow-up on US inflation and the bond market
10. June 2021
USA: Inflation jumps sharply in May as 'transitory price pressure' will not go away
British house price inflation hitting the highest since 1988 and evidence of more than just 'transitory inflation' trigger a significant warning from the Bank of England
9. June 2021
China: Producer price inflation jumps at the fastest rate since 2008. The 'base effect' from soaring pork prices in 2020 will keep CPI inflation low for a few more months 
8. June 2021
USA: The flipside of aggressive fiscal and monetary easing hits the shore. 'JOLTS job openings' skyrocket to a new all-time high
USA: NFIB small business survey shows increasing and broad-based price and wage inflation
Germany: ZEW shows investor sentiment has peaked, but tailwinds from central banks remain strong, at  least for the time being 
7. June 2021
Germany: Industrial orders show 'normalisation' as exporters benefit from other countries' stimulus measures
China: Local virus outbreaks in Guangdong and a shortage of containers out of China put a drag on exports
4. June 2021
USA: The labour market report disappoints again as plenty of job offers are not filled by enough applicants, but wage inflation is on the rise
A short update of Outlook 2021 - and the financial market implications
3. June 2021
USA: ISM service index increases to a new all-time high. Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since 2005 indicating consumer price inflation in the range of 5% to 6%
USA: ADP Employment Report shows a strong bounce in the labour market adding more pressure on the Federal Reserve to reverse policy
Watch out for the Riksbank and the Federal Reserve: Sweden's leading price indicators point towards inflation close to 5%. The Federal Reserve has made the first step towards tightening
Turkey: A panicking President Erdogan retakes charge of monetary policy to the disadvantage of the economy
2. June 2021
Euro-zone: Inflation at the factory gates jumps at the fastest rate since 2008. There is more in the pipeline, as policymakers still make tailwinds
1. June 2021
USA: A highly ambiguous manufacturing ISM survey shows strength but also 'supply chain related' weakness. Federal Reserve QE reduction will come sooner rather than later
Switzerland: The best leading indicators are harbingers of growth in the range of 5% to 8% in 2021. Price pressure jumps to the highest level since January 1995
British house prices skyrocket to a new all-time high, as households want more space. Central banks warning about house prices sound hollow
31. May 2021
Germany: Consumer price report surprises to the upside. The risk of second-round inflation is still low, but no signs of softening in imported inflation
Japan: Industrial output bounces back, but the 'recovery' will disappoint. Consumer confidence declines
China: The official PMI survey shows robust growth, but inflation pressure at the highest level since 2010 bodes ill for growth in 2022 and beyond
28. May 2021
USA: Personal income-consumption report shows a significant increase in the PCE price index adding more pressure on the Federal Reserve to change monetary policy
Euro-zone survey: Business and consumer sentiment jumps in May. Inflation pressure at the factory gates hits the highest since 1985
Federal Reserve dissent intensifies: 'Tapering' is more often mentioned by Fed officials. Do not even mention 'quantitative tightening'
27. May 2021
USA: Q1 GDP report revision shows inflation pressure at the highest level since Q1, 2007, even though the 'recovery party' has not started yet
A follow-up note on 'transitory': The Federal Reserve sacrificing the credibility of fiat money will have huge consequences if the 'transitory call' proves wrong 
Sweden: Business sentiment and price pressure jump to the highest ever recorded: When do central banks say what everyone already knows?
26. May 2021
The financial market needs more evidence of 'transitory'. South Korean business survey does not provide it
France: The composite Insee business sentiment index skyrockets to the highest since April 2018. Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since 2011
25. May 2021
USA: Soaring cost pressure is the main drag on the housing market, according to today's 'new home sales report'. The Conference Board consumer survey shows increasing inflation pressure and a very tight labour market
Germany: A sharp improvement in the IFO service sentiment index is a harbinger of very strong growth in Q2 and Q3
21. May 2021
Euro-zone: The leading consumer confidence index jumps to the highest level since October 2018
USA: Existing home sales report shows home prices increasing at the fastest annual rate since the 1960s. The Federal Reserve is far behind the curve
Britain: Retail sales jump in April. Skyrocketing consumer confidence shows more in the pipeline. Europe headed for a positive rebound surprise will change the monetary outlook
20. May 2021
USA: The Philadelphia Fed headline index plunges, as expected, but inflation pressure jumps to a new record high
The Federal Reserve plays with fire: Talking about tapering amidst the risk of an 'automatic liquidity squeeze' should gain attention among investors
Japan: Exports bounce back, but there are no signs of self-propelled recovery. Plenty of headwinds, not least as the US Federal Reserve talks about 'tapering'
19. May 2021
Britain: The rise in consumer prices has started. Central banks decide for how long
18. May 2021
US housing report shows weakness as soaring commodity prices delay 'new starts'
The Euro-zone economy contracting in Q1 will bounce back in Q2, but infrastructure spending needed in H2 to make the economic recovery self-propelled
Japan: A failed Covid19 strategy hits the economy in Q1. Only 3.5% of the population has received the first vaccination shot
17. May 2021
The headline index in the US Empire State survey barely changed in May, but price pressure jumped to a new all-time high
China faces the same bottlenecks as the rest of the world, but the leading activity indicators remain strong
Podcast interview with Ulrik Bie, Berlingske's economic editor and former Chief Economist at IIF and Nykredit: Are monetary policymakers part of the problem rather than the solution?
13. May 2021
There will be no updates on May 13 and 14 due to public holidays in Denmark
Podcast interview with Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce China: What comes next for European companies in China?
12. May 2021
USA: After today's inflation report, the Federal Reserve could suddenly look like 'Comical Ali', according to investors
China: Slow monetary aggregates should give rise to concern in Beijing
USA: JOLTS survey shows a huge mismatch between job offers and applicants. President Biden asks companies to raise wages
Britain: The economy accelerated sharply in March, but the vaccination process coming to a standstill poses a threat to a country with little ammo left
11. May 2021
USA: NFIB small business survey shows an upbeat short-term growth outlook but significant inflation pressure - and visible signs of skilled workers shortage
Germany: ZEW survey shows highly upbeat investors and a recovery that has finally started. Are investors underestimating the risk of inflation?
China: Factory gate inflation jumps as imported price pressure is on the rise. The recovery is slowly turning into headwinds for the global stock market
10. May 2021
Soaring commodity prices making significant inroads into households' 'real' consumption basket pose a threat to growth in 2022
Australia: The leading NAB business sentiment index jumps to a new all-time high. The AUD will benefit from soaring commodity prices, but 2022 could turn out quite differently
7. May 2021
USA: April labour market report disappoints big time. There are plenty of job offers but only a few workers are employed
Germany: The rebound has started. The Greens' Annalena Baerbock fascinates President Biden, but the rise of the Green Party also raises unanswered questions
China: The April trade report shows broad-based economic strength - but also increasing inflation pressure
6. May 2021
US stock market return chart: 1900-2021
Spain's regional Madrid election is a warning to incumbent governments in Europe that there comes a time after Covid19
Germany: Industrial orders jump in March, as the rebound accelerates. Most political parties turning 'green' leaves room for the liberal party, FDP
5. May 2021
USA: ISM service sentiment index fails to make a new record high in April, but inflation pressure continues higher
Podcast interview with China expert Joergen Delman: The situation for European companies in China has turned significantly more complicated after the EU-China investment deal has been put on hold by Brussels
Euro-zone: Price pressure at the factory gates is on the rise. Second-round inflation remains benign, so far, but imported inflation keeps coming
Sweden: Price pressure in the service sector increases to a new all-time high
4. May 2021
US trade report: Imports skyrocket to the highest since November 2018 as 'too much demand hunts too little supply. The US is headed for the 1980s 'twin deficit', which did not end well
A blinkered Federal Reserve could turn the United States into a 'late-cycle economy' in June or July. The 'gap' in the labour market is closing rapidly
3. May 2021
USA: The ISM manufacturing index declines from an all-time high, as inflation pressure continues higher
The Swiss and the Swedish PMI headline indexes propel to a new record high - the same applies to inflation pressure
China: PMI surveys continue to show robust growth. Beijing tries to keep its powder dry by setting sails to benefit from tailwinds created by Washington
Video: Inflation update with audio comments
29. April 2021
There will be no updates on April 30 due to a public holiday in Denmark
USA: The underlying details in a robust Q1 GDP report show very strong domestic demand. More in the pipeline in Q2 and Q3. Monetary policy is out-of-whack
Euro-zone survey shows a steep increase in business sentiment and soaring inflation expectations
Sweden: Strong Q1 growth will be followed by much stronger economic activity in Q2 and Q3. Factory gates inflation pressure at the highest since 1994
Podcast interview with Anders Ellemann Kristensen in Beijing, General Manager, Albatros Travel China: Why is China's population declining a decade earlier than expected?
28. April 2021
France: The leading consumer survey from Insee indicates a weak economic rebound
Germany: Consumer sentiment declines, as the mishandling of the pandemic weakens the 'expected rebound'. The financial costs of the US recovery will hit Europe
27. April 2021
US consumer confidence skyrockets to the highest level since February 2020. The share of respondents seeing 'plentiful of jobs' propels higher as the labour market improves
South Korea: The economy expands in Q1, but growth will accelerate in the coming quarters by courtesy of the White House, in particular
26. April 2021
Germany: The latest national lockdown and bottlenecks put a drag on business sentiment in April, according to the IFO Institute
23. April 2021
USA: New home sales report shows absolutely no signs of a slowing economy despite increasing mortgage rates
Britain: Households seeing light at the end of the tunnel boost retail sales in March. Public sector borrowing hits a new record high
Podcast interview with Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank: The rise of the Green Party and the implications for the German and the European economy and financial market
22. April 2021
USA: Jobless claims are on the decline, which will accelerate in the coming months. Labour shortage appears before the full recovery
Britain: Business optimism skyrockets to the highest level since 1973. Inflation pressure gains momentum
France: Manufacturing sentiment jumps to the highest since May 2019, but service sentiment declines sharply. Macron will soon have a 'spending ally' in Berlin
20. April 2021
Britain: Labour market progress is slow, but the economy remains on a path of bouncing back sharply in Q2 and Q3. The long-term growth outlook is less clear
Germany: Producer price inflation hits the highest since 2011. Significantly more inflation in the pipeline. Annalena Baerbock as Chancellor will make fiscal prudence disappear in Germany
19. April 2021
Japan: Exporters see a strong boost from Tokyo's 'biggest threat', China
16. April 2021
USA: Consumer sentiment increases in April. Household inflation expectations jump to the highest since 2012
USA: Housing starts jump to the highest since July 2006. 'Silence' is the Federal Reserve's only tool left
Japan's highly export-oriented stock market is among the star-performers, but soft data are only harbingers of a weak economic rebound
China: The Lunar New Year 'travel ban' put a lid on Q1 growth, but Beijing will maintain a hawkish policy stance
15. April 2021
USA: Retail sales propel higher at the fastest pace ever recorded, as fiscal and monetary policymakers fuel rather than put a lid on growth
USA: The cyclical indicator in the Philadelphia Fed survey jumped to the highest since 1992, as the economy sees no headwinds from policymakers
14. April 2021
Recommendation: Take profit in 'short 30-year Bund futures' strategy and re-enter 'short 30-year US government bond future' strategy
USA: 'Temporary inflation' or real inflation? What if the Federal Reserve suddenly gets second thoughts about fully financing the White House's fiscal expansion?
Australia: Consumer sentiment index skyrockets to the highest since 2010 despite the failure of Canberra's vaccination strategy. Soaring commodity prices are the biggest tailwind to the AUD
13. April 2021
USA: Consumer price inflation jumps to the highest since 2018, although the acceleration in global growth has only just started. Lumber prices hit a new record high
Germany: ZEW survey shows investor sentiment at an elevated level. Berlin is headed towards political turbulence in the coming months and years
China trade report: Exporters continue to benefit from the rest of the world bouncing back, but material costs are propelling higher
Australia benefits strongly as Washington 'just keeps giving'. All global growth engines are gaining momentum. Chinese imports from Australia hits a new all-time high
Podcast interview with Anne Sofie Schoett from the Royal Danish Defence College: What is President Erdogan's plan for Turkey?
12. April 2021
China: Ironically, the Federal Reserve could soon force Beijing to follow an unwanted path of 'Japanification'
China-USA-Asia: Increasing tensions have turned the East and the South China Sea into a powder keg
9. April 2021
USA: Producer prices jump much faster than market expectations. More is, of course, in the pipeline, as fiscal policymakers have created chaos in the global supply chain. Intermediate goods prices jump by 10% year-on-year
France: A steep decline in manufacturing output underscores President Macron's uphill struggle to get reelected in 2022. Marine Le Pen is exposed to multiple tailwinds, but fiscal expansion could change the situation
China: Producer price inflation jumps to the highest since July 2018. An accident waiting to happen in the South China Sea poses a significant future threat to the global supply chain
8. April 2021
TECHNICAL ISSUES with REFINITIV's financial data delay today's articles from Insightview
USA: Weekly jobless claims report is in line with significant labour market improvement. The economy could turn 'late-cycle' faster than expected
Japan: Household sentiment improves only slowly. The biggest threat is a rapid deterioration of the security situation in the East and the South China Sea, as Beijing moves fast to enforce its territorial claims
Germany: Industrial orders boosted by a strong rebound in domestic and Euro-zone orders for capital goods. Export orders to propel much higher in the coming months
7. April 2021
USA February trade deficit is on the rise: 'Customers assessing inventories to be too low' herald a steep increase in imports in 2021
The latest Covid19 status: 'Winners' and 'losers' - so far
6. April 2021
Spain: February tourist arrivals are 90% lower than one year ago. Only a question of 'when' Brussels will have to initiate more aggressive fiscal stimulus measures
USA: ISM service index skyrockets to a new all-time high. Inflation headed towards the range of at 'least 4% and 5%'
China: Caixin PMI service index jumps in March, as the mainland economy gains momentum. Beijing raises tensions with Japan, USA, Australia and 'neighbours' more than one thousand kilometres from the mainland
USA: The ISM manufacturing sentiment index jumps to the highest since 1983 as fiscal stimulus measures just keep coming
30. March 2021
There will be no updates on March 31, April 1,2 and 5
Podcast interview with The Economist's Berlin bureau chief, Tom Nuttall, about Germany's domestic and foreign policy when Angela Merkel steps down. How will politics change with the Green Party as part of the next government? The relationship to China?
EU Commission survey: Euro-zone business sentiment improves significantly. Companies' inflation expectations jump to the highest since 2011
Germany: Imported inflation jumps in February. The 'reservoir' of potential inflation is underestimated as fiscal stimulus measures and accumulated household savings will maintain bottlenecks in the global supply chain. Next stop: higher service inflation?
29. March 2021
The US and EU confronting China pose a risk to the supply side at the same time as the US personal savings rate hits the highest since the 1960s. US personal income jumps at the fastest rate since 1989
A short follow-up note to the IFO survey: Export expectations skyrocket to the highest since 2011, according to details released today
26. March 2021
Germany: The IFO survey shows a sharp improvement in the expectations index across the board - Replace 'short US 30-year T-bond future' with 'short 30-year Bund future'
25. March 2021
Germany: GfK consumer survey shows improvement shortly before a new lockdown and the subsequent U-turn. The CDU sees a plunge in support to the lowest level since 2000
France: Service sentiment jumps but shortly before a new Covid19-related lockdown. Inflation pressure propels higher. Paris and President Macron will soon need more aggressive fiscal stimulus measures
24. March 2021
USA: Weak durable goods orders. The biggest obstacles to the economy are supply and capacity – and the rebound has not even started
23. March 2021
USA: New home sales plunge as soaring material costs and low supply put a drag on housing activity
Britain: Industrial optimism skyrockets in March. The same applies to inflation expectations
The conflict between China and the rest of the world. What 'we do not know' and what 'the Chinese think they know' pose a significant risk to the financial market. A game changer?
Insightview recommends taking short-term profits in the 'short US 30-year bond future' strategy
22. March 2021
USA: Buoyant house prices are a function of monetary policy in the second half of 2020. Higher bond yields will create headwinds in 2022 and beyond
Taiwanese export order statistics show the steepest increase in European demand on record. China sees a sharp increase in FDI to a new record high 
A brief note on Turkey: The 'master of value destruction' strikes again. Is Erdogan creating room to become the next 'core leader'?
19. March 2021
Turkey is forced to raise key policy rates again, as the real problem does not disappear unless he is forced to do so
China: Fiscal revenue statistics show a 'solid' economic rebound but no signs yet of a 2010-like recovery
Britain: Consumer confidence skyrockets in March, as there is more light at the end of the tunnel. Nonetheless, more stimulus measures will be needed in the second half of 2021
18. March 2021
US bond market sell-off: The upcoming bond supply and negative real yield have taken over from inflation expectations as the main driver
USA: The regional Philadelphia Fed headline index propels to a new all-time high. Inflation expectations skyrocket to a record high
Australia: The strong economic recovery raises the question of whether monetary policy is too loose
17. March 2021
USA: Housing starts and permits plunge in February due to supply shortage and soaring material costs
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows further improvement in manufacturing and service sentiment. More to come sponsored by the Biden-administration
16. March 2021
USA: Retail sales fell sharply in February but after a significantly up-revised January number. The second and third quarter will show strong growth
Germany: Investor sentiment improves, but inflation expectations jump close to the highest since 1999. Europe could soon be forced to follow the same fiscal strategy as the White House
15. March 2021
USA: Empire State survey shows no signs of slower inflation pressure. The price index skyrockets to the highest since May 2011. Supply rather than inflation is now the driving force behind higher bond yields
Germany turns 'greener' but the political outlook becomes gloomier, as the failure of the old parties creates a political vacuum
China: Strong economic statistics and Washington acting again as a 'global engine' keep Beijing on a hawkish path. The risk of global liquidity tightening is on the rise 
13. March 2021
By Invitation: China's annual NPC meeting in the shadows of the Communist Party's 100th anniversary
Podcast interview with three China experts about the just-ended NPC Two Sessions meeting in Beijing. China-EU investment deal at risk? Taiwan next in line with the 'reunification' plan? China backpedalling on carbon emission?
12. March 2021
USA: Producer price inflation is on the rise. Watch out for the 'mother of all liquidity tightening' caused by the rebound. The real driver for higher bond yields is 'normalisation'
Spain: The economy will recover in Q2 and Q3, but 2021 could prove to be yet another lost year, as the vaccination process is too slow to save the tourist season. Financial support from Brussels needed in the second half of 2021
Britain: The economy did better than expected in January, but trade activity with the EU plunged as Brexit creates red tape problems
11. March 2021
USA: The federal deficit hits a new record high in February on the same day that the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act was passed
10. March 2021
USA: Tame inflation in February. Supply chain inflation is expected to feed into consumer prices in Q2 and Q3
France: Industrial output jumps in January, but the economic rebound will be fragile. Soon, Paris will ask for more fiscal stimulus measures...from Brussels, of course
China: Inflation at the factory gates is picking up. Unnoticed message from the Two Sessions should cause concern in Taiwan after the 'Hong Kong problem' has been 'solved'
9. March 2021
USA: NFIB small business survey shows soaring inflation expectations and 'skilled labour shortage at the highest since 1975
Germany: A strong January trade report does not disguise the long-term challenges of exporters. This requires political leadership, but the political vacuum will soon grow larger
Australia: Business confidence jumps to the highest since early 2010. Soaring capacity utilisation will prompt capacity expansion in Q3
8. March 2021
US growth forecast revised up to 7.2% in 2021 as the $1.9 trillion stimulus package seems now to be a given outcome. More upside to bond yields
Germany's manufacturing sector is headed towards a sharp rebound despite weak January data, but Berlin has failed big time during the second Covid19 wave. Yield-spread widening adds downward pressure on the euro
China: The trade surplus skyrockets to a new record-high, as the US and European 'economic mitigation strategy' creates a never-ending tailwind
5. March 2021
USA: The February labour market report shows a strong increase in employment. In Q2, hiring will accelerate
Germany: Industrial orders increased in January, but more to come as exporters will benefit from 'classic' US fiscal stimulus measures
A short note on Fed Chairman Powell's 'temporary inflation speech': Get used to the 'crowding out effect'
4. March 2021
Euro-zone: Retail sales plunge in January. Accelerating headline inflation could embitter households' joy later in the recovery process
Japan: The recovery in consumer sentiment is painfully slow, but the stock market rides the fiscal stimulus wave sponsored by Washington
3. March 2021
THERE WILL BE NO UPDATES AFTER 10 AM ON MARCH 3
US service ISM survey: The economic mitigation strategy hits activity, and propels inflation pressure to the highest since 2008
Australia: The economy bounced back strongly in Q4. Canberra is determined to begin withdrawing fiscal stimulus measures
Podcast interview: How can you get to visit China? Insightview has talked with a Danish businessman who was determined enough to 'climb the Chinese wall'
2. March 2021
Euro-zone inflation remains benign shortly before 'summer is coming' and the vaccination process gains momentum
Germany: A weak January retail sales report is a symbolic reflection of Berlin's poor performance during the second Covid19-wave
1. March 2021
USA: Manufacturing ISM index jumps to the highest since February 2018. Inflation pressure hits the highest since 2008
Turkey: The economy was among the star performers in 2020. The share of vaccinated people hits 8%
China: The headline indexes in the PMI surveys fell again in February. The PMI export index dropped back into the contraction zone
26. February 2021
USA: Personal income increasing by a strong 10% month-on-month in January propelled household savings to 20.5%. More ammo at the end of the tunnel
The Swedish economy was among the 'star performers' in 2020. The economy is well-positioned to benefit from a global rebound in 2021
What are the main factors behind the bond market sell-off in the last few weeks? Keep the focus on JGBs as the US yield curve steepens
25. February 2021
USA: Durable goods orders gain momentum. More in the pipeline, as long as fiscal stimulus measures do not create crowding-out
EU Commission survey: Euro-zone sentiment recovery is still painfully slow. Industrialists' inflation expectations jump in February
Germany: Consumer sentiment improves, but GfK survey shows that the vaccination process, the reopening process and politics are in disarray
24. February 2021
USA: A strong leading new home sales report shows clear evidence of an economy exposed to 'excessive' stimulus measures. More house price inflation in the pipeline despite higher bond yields
Taiwan: Skyrocketing export orders show clear signs of a broadening global growth acceleration - or more precisely, 'demand acceleration'. No evidence of softening price pressure
France: Manufacturing sentiment improves, but service sentiment drops. Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since July 2011. More imported inflation in the pipeline
23. February 2021
USA: Consumer confidence improves - and households' inflation expectations increase
A short note on the US bond market sell-off. What comes next?
China: House prices accelerate despite curbs imposed by local authorities, as inventories of unsold homes decline
22. February 2021
Germany: Business sentiment jumps as 'summer is coming' and the vaccination process gains momentum. Inflation pressure in the US adds pressure on the European bond market
19. February 2021
USA: The housing market remains buoyant as policymakers pursue a dangerous strategy of 'let us see what happens'
Britain: The yo-yo pandemic triggers a steep decline in retail sales in January. The fiscal deficit jumps. Business and consumer sentiment increases only slowly in February
Germany: Producer prices jump in January. A much larger increase is in the pipeline in 2021. Is inflation really a problem in Europe?
18. February 2021
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey is a harbinger of steady growth, but inflation expectations skyrocket. The White House is on a path of making a significant policy mistake
Australia: Strong labour market report in January. The recovery is now so robust that Canberra considers rolling back several fiscal support schemes. What about the Aussie dollar?
VIDEO: The case for higher US bond yields - and President Biden's planned public sector projects
17. February 2021
USA: Skyrocketing retail sales and significantly higher inflation at the factory gates require high-level communication skills at the Federal Reserve in 2021
Japan: The 'recovery' continues, according to the latest Reuters Tankan survey. Biden's aggressive policy approach will keep the yen weak in the short run until inflation erodes the real value of the US dollar
16. February 2021
USA: Regional Empire State survey shows skyrocketing inflation pressure at the factory gates
Podcast interview with Flemming Konradsen, Director, School of Global Health, University of Copenhagen, on how to reopen after the lockdown without creating the foundation for the next lockdown
Germany: ZEW economic sentiment index jumps in February close to the highest level since 2004. Inflation expectations are skyrocketing
15. February 2021
Japan: The economy shows strong growth in Q4. Washington could turn into the main growth sponsor for Japanese exporters in 2021
USA: The Biden administration opting for 'whatever it takes' will have profound global consequences further down the road
Podcast interview: 'Boots on the ground'. What is the current situation in China? Steffen Schiottz-Christensen in Chengdu about China's economic recovery, vaccination and the business situation on the mainland
12. February 2021
USA: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined in February. Inflation expectations hit the highest since 2014
Britain: The economy closed the miserable year of 2020 down by 9.9%. The long-term outlook remains weak as London does not have the same freedom of 'fiscal irresponsibility' as in Washington
A short note on President Biden's telephone conversation with Xi Jinping
11. February 2021
USA: The federal deficit skyrocketing in January to more than 17% of GDP will not prevent the Biden-administration from doing more of the same 'fiscal experiment' in 2021
Britain: The latest lockdown puts a drag on house prices, but there appear no significant headwinds in the short run
10. February 2021
USA: Moderate inflation in January, but price pressure is building in many parts of the global supply chain
France: The manufacturing sector stumbled in December. France now pays the price of having made several mistakes since 2008
China: Lunar New Year distortion and food import add downward pressure on consumer prices. Factory prices on the rise. Asset price inflation is Beijing's biggest challenge
9. February 2021
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey shows a steep increase in output prices - a harbinger of higher inflation
Italy: Mario Draghi will not make a difference in Rome because this time he does not have the mandate to do 'whatever it takes'. He has only one attempt
China: 'January aberration' boosts lending, but the liquidity situation is tight, as Beijing does 'whatever it takes' to prevent asset price bubbles
Australia: Business confidence stays close to the highest level since May 2018. No signs yet of aggressive spending in the mining sector will support commodity prices
8. February 2021
Spain: Industrial production contracted in 2020 at the fastest rate since 2009. Madrid needs the ECB more than ever if US bond yields are on the rise
Japan: Economy Watcher Survey continues to show falling sentiment. 'Economic mitigation countries' have no plan-B if new variants force health authorities to launch a new vaccination program - except 'mitigation'
5. February 2021
USA: The January labour market report disappoints as yet another Covid19 wave causes havoc. More fiscal support in the pipeline
USA: What do the short-term and long-term economic indicators say about the economy? The message is strong if  central banks manipulate the yield curve
Germany: Industrial orders dragged down by a significant decline in Euro-zone demand
4. February 2021
Euro-zone: Retail sales fell by only 1.2% in 2020. A big shift in consumption is in the pipeline from Q2
3. February 2021
USA: ISM service survey heralds robust growth, employment and higher inflation in Q2 and beyond
Euro-zone: January inflation exceeds market expectations - but the 'real boost' to inflation will come in Q2
Australia: Zero-tolerance Covid19  strategy, combined with aggressive fiscal stimulus measures, is a recipe of strong growth and inflation 
China: Caixin service PMI index drops to the lowest since April 2020, as clusters of coronavirus outbreaks impact consumer behaviour
Podcast interview with Jens Larsson, St. Petri Capital, about the 'GameStop short squeeze' and the broader implications
2. February 2021
Euro-zone: The economy contracts by 6.8% in 2020. A strong rebound in Q2 and Q3 will be followed by weakness in 2022
1. February 2021
USA: ISM manufacturing index drops from an elevated level, but inflation pressure jumps again to the highest level since 2011
Sweden: Inflation pressure at the factory gates jumps to the highest level since 2004, according to the leading January PMI survey
China: New Covid19 outbreaks hit service sentiment, in particular, and manufacturing sentiment. Lunar New Year travellers are  told to stay home
29. January 2021
USA: Household income continues to grow during yet another Covid19 wave. Accumulated household savings hit $1650 billion in 2020
The European Central Bank is giving and giving, but fiscal policy is the only 'efficient' tool left
France: The economy 'performed' better than expected in the last quarter of 2020, but the outlook remains grim after an expected rebound in Q2 and Q3
28. January 2021
USA: Covid19 puts a drag on growth in the last quarter of 2020 - more weakness in Q1, but the economy will recover faster than Europe
EU Commission survey: New lockdowns and Brussels' catastrophic handling of vaccine purchases hit consumer sentiment in January
South Korea: Export sentiment jumps to the highest level since 2011, according to the leading Bank of Korea business sentiment survey
27. January 2021
USA: Private corporate spending remains far below what has been forecast by most forward-looking indicators
France: Consumer confidence declines as Paris considers to impose the third lockdown. Europe's political leaders will soon be tested as people's nerves are on edge
Germany: Consumer sentiment collapses as Berlin considers extending the lockdown
China: Industrial profits soar as Beijing's successful handling of the pandemic creates problems for the central bank
26. January 2021
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey indicates short-term pain and tentative signs of long-term gains, as the share of vaccinated is close to 6%
Brazil: 'My country is broke,' says President Bolsonaro, having bought voters during the pandemic. Bolsonaro's approval rating plunges
Britain: November unemployment rate hit the highest level since July 2016. Retailer sentiment collapses in January to a level not seen since April 2020
EU: The 'failed' vaccination process could turn into dangerous political headwinds fuelling EU-sceptics unless Brussels pulls itself together
South Korea: Strong Q4 growth report. 'Thank you for the support, USA and EU'
25. January 2021
Germany: IFO survey disappoints due to a broad-based decline in future expectations. Manufacturing current conditions index remains upbeat
22. January 2021
USA: The housing market continued to stay upbeat in December despite soaring prices, but the bond market will create headwinds in from Q2
The video version of The Outlook 2021 is now available
Britain: Several tsunamis have hit the shore. Consumer and business sentiment drops, and the budget deficit soars
21. January 2021
USA: A buoyant regional Philadelphia Fed survey is only the tip of the iceberg in an over-stimulated economy
France: Insee survey shows broad-based improvement in sentiment, but the 'recovery' will be bumpy
Japan: The export sector improves but is lagging Taiwan and South Korea
20. January 2021
China-EU investment deal
Taiwan: Export orders skyrocket at the fastest rate since April 2010 by courtesy of the 'economic mitigation countries'. More to come, according to the Economy Ministry
Germany: Inflation at the factory gates surprises to the upside as higher prices on intermediate goods and raw materials hit the shore
19. January 2021
Germany: ZEW survey looks through 'temporary' Covid19 problems. Inflation expectations skyrocketed in January
Podcast interview with Joergen Bager, Senior Director of Market Operations at LEGO Group in China, about B2C and the Chinese consumer
18. January 2021
Japan Reuters Tankan survey: Service sentiment takes a beating while manufacturing confidence jumps in January
China: The recovery continued in Q4, but headwinds from a new Covid19 wave could hit growth in Q1, as households react immediately to the newsflow
Germany: The CDU opting for status quo does not eliminate the risk of political rivalry when Angela Merkel steps down
15. January 2021
USA: Manufacturing output continues bouncing back. Capital spending plans are on the rise. Empire State survey is a harbinger of higher inflation
USA: Retail sales decline in December as the pandemic continues to put a lid on growth
China: House price inflation moderates in December as tightening measures put a drag on house prices
14. January 2021
China: The 'economic mitigation countries' supported Chinese exporters in December. More to come in Q2 assuming there are no surprises from new Covid19 variants
Is inflation on the rise? Yes, by courtesy of policymakers who, once again, kicked the can down the road
13. January 2021
Italy: The manufacturing rebound slows at the same time as politics in Rome is back to 'normal' - political turmoil
The CDU-leader contest could turn into the most decisive moment in European politics in 2021 if Friedrich Merz is elected the next party leader
12. January 2021
USA: Small business sentiment falls sharply, as a new Covid19 wave dents the economic outlook, according to the NFIB
Japan: Service sentiment plunges as a more aggressive third wave of Covid19 emerges. The pandemic leaves Japan with the same problem but in a worse situation to mitigate headwinds
11. January 2021
Spain: The economy is losing steam. The vaccination process will be too slow to save the tourist season in 2021
China: Inflation normalises. It may be difficult for Beijing to keep their arms down. Insurrection in Washington and 'economic mitigation' in favour of Chinese exports. Can it get much better?
8. January 2021
USA: The Covid19 pandemic out of control hits the service sector hard in today's employment report
7. January 2021
USA: Soaring service sentiment despite no end to the pandemic. A significant bond market sell-off is in the pipeline
EU business and consumer survey: The rebound is on track but much weaker than in the United States
VIDEO: China's digital RMB - Beijing's view
Germany: Industrial orders jump in November. Growth will accelerate in Q2 unless South African and Romanian virus variants succeed in derailing the vaccination program
6. January 2021
USA: Weak ADP Employment Report is only one more argument for aggressive fiscal policy, according to the Democrats
The Outlook 2021 slides presentation
USA: The Georgia election could turn into the beginning of a larger bond market sell-off - and boosts the probability of more regulation of the tech sector
5. January 2021
USA: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back. Inflation pressure skyrockets in December by courtesy of the 'economic mitigation strategy'
Germany: Strong retail sales in November - more to come in Q2. Until then, Germany and the rest of Europe face the longest winter in living memory
4. January 2021
China: PMI survey continues to show robust growth. 'Jack Ma' is just yet another tycoon disappearing on the mainland
Sweden: Manufacturing sentiment jumps to the highest since 2010. Inflation pressure at the factory gates skyrockets
Significant pent-up demand from 'economic mitigation' - and more 'pent-up demand' to come in Q1 due to a failed Covid19 strategy in Europe and the United States
18. December 2020
The last date of updates in 2020 is on December 18. The first date of updates in 2021 is on 4 January
Germany: IFO survey was upbeat 'before' the decision of yet another national lockdown
A short note on what comes after 'the last hurdle' in the Covid19 pandemic
17. December 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey heralds weaker-than-expected recovery in 2021
France: Service sentiment bounces back as the 'second wave' collapses. The 'yo-yo pandemic' will create a new wave in January. Macron has tested positive for Covid19
16. December 2020
USA: Upbeat consumer sentiment was not reflected in the November retail sales report. The case for significant fiscal stimulus measures is building
A short note on the US dollar and the euro: Short-term US dollar weakness to be followed by significant strength in the second half of 2021
Japan: The export sector disappoints significantly in November. Successful vaccines come too late to provide help in the coming months
15. December 2020
USA: The Empire State manufacturing survey shows a steep jump in price expectations
China: The economy continues gaining momentum, as Beijing still seems to be in control of the pandemic, according to sources
14. December 2020
Euro-zone: Industrial output bounces back sharply in October, but the rebound stalls according to forward-looking indicators. ECB is far more aggressive than the Federal Reserve
Podcast interview with Professor Torben M Andersen, former chairman of the Danish government's advisory Covid19 group: What have we learned from the pandemic? [LANGUAGE: DANISH]
China: Tight monetary policy puts a drag on house prices
Japan: The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey shows improvement in corporate sentiment, but spending plans remain downbeat
11. December 2020
USA: Household sentiment jumps in December even though daily Covid19 cases hit 210,000
USA: The current price environment is neither too hot nor too cold, but inflation pressure is building
10. December 2020
Britain: The economic rebound has stalled. There are far too many unsolved issues
9. December 2020
Australia: Consumer sentiment jumps to the highest level since 2010 as a successful Covid19 strategy benefits the economy and the people
Germany: The rebound in the export sector disappoints - and the outlook continues to deteriorate
China: Soaring imported supply of pork and meat makes consumer prices decline in November. Factory gate prices headed towards a sharp increase in 2021
8. December 2020
USA: The NFIB small business sentiment index fell in November. The six-month outlook plunged. Georgia runoff election could trigger bond market sell-off
Japan: The Economy Watcher index falls sharply in December after the 'third wave' of Covid19 inflates to a new record high
7. December 2020
Germany: Industrial output jumps in October, but Covid19 could trigger a double-dip recession
China benefits strongly from the failure to handle Covid19 in Europe and the United States - but secular headwinds will gain momentum in the coming years
4. December 2020
USA: The November employment report disappoints as a new Covid19 wave hits the shores. The wave will get even larger going into January
Germany: The rebound in industrial orders boosted by non-Euro-zone orders and strong demand for autos. IFO survey heralds short-term weakness
3. December 2020
USA: ISM service sentiment survey seems overly optimistic considering that the country faces the worst ever test of its healthcare system in the coming months
Euro-zone: Strong retail sales in October supported by pent-up demand and 'opening up'. Second thoughts in Berlin about Covid19 mitigation costs after yet another 'lock-down'
Turkey: Skyrocketing inflation in November makes leeway for another rate hike. President Erdogan is a case study of 'what not to do'
2. December 2020
Australia: Protecting the economy and the health of the people places the country among the top four in the world in 2020
Germany: Household spending skyrockets in October based on pent-up demand, but most German consumers face the 'mother of all headwinds' in 2021
1. December 2020
USA: Manufacturing sentiment declines in November but stays at an elevated level, as the economy is still exposed to unprecedented stimulus measures
Euro-zone: Deflationary pressure prevailed in November - at least according to the consumer basket used before the coronavirus outbreak. The picture could change rapidly
The Swiss economy bounces back sharply in Q3 to the relief of the world's biggest hedge fund, SNB
30. November 2020
Turkey: President Erdogan used all ammo to boost growth in Q3. Now comes skyrocketing Covid19 cases, higher policy rates - and Erdogan is still around
Japan: Highly efficient vaccines will reinforce the economic rebound, but the response to Covid19 has made 'old problems' even worse
PMI survey: China benefits from its Covid19 strategy and the failure of Europe and the US, which will be reinforced by surprisingly efficient vaccines
27. November 2020
EU survey: Service sentiment takes a beating before the next Covid19 wave in January - but export sentiment improves
China: Industrial profits jump as most engines are running - but do not get too excited as demographics is a much stronger headwind than assessed by many investors
26. November 2020
Germany: Consumer sentiment drops as the aftermath of Covid19 has just started despite several successful vaccines have emerged
More evidence of a slow supply-side response to aggressive 'economic mitigation' boosts the possibility of an inflation surprise in 2021
25. November 2020
USA: New home sales remain buoyant. A low inventory level of unsold homes indicates the strongest 'wealth effect' since 1980
USA: The economy is over-stimulated although Covid19 will create headwinds in November-January. Inflation could radically change the environment in 2021
South Korea: Business sentiment jumps in November. Export sentiment skyrockets to the highest since 2011 supported by China and 'economic mitigation' in Europe and the United States
24. November 2020
USA: Consumer confidence expectations decline in November, as the 'third wave' of Covid19 hits the shores
Germany: Manufacturing sentiment improves while service sentiment takes a beating in November
France: The second wave of Covid19 hits service business sentiment. This is 'history', as highly efficient vaccines 'saved the world', according to investors
23. November 2020
By Invitation: Time is up for Xi Jinping to make China greener
Asia: South Korean and Taiwanese statistics show a strong rebound in export activity
Euro-zone: High-efficacy vaccines have radically changed the game in the financial market, but Europe could face the most challenging wave in January
20. November 2020
Japan: Deflation prevails as the rebound remains weak. Tokyo faces a complicated inflation-versus-deflation scenario
19. November 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey stays upbeat, as companies see beyond what could turn out to be the longest 'winter' within living memory
Business sentiment takes another beating as Britain 'cannot even see the tunnel'
Australia: A buoyant labour market provides a lesson to Europe and the United States - but it comes too late
18. November 2020
USA: Policymakers boosts housing demand, which creates short-term inflation as the supply-side is reluctant to react. The risk is, perversely, significant deflationary pressure from 2022
Japan: Chinese and US demand boost exports in October, but exporters face headwinds from a tough 'winter' in Europe and the United States
17. November 2020
There will only be delayed updates on November 17-18 due to the China webinar
16. November 2020
USA: Regional Empire State survey shows that investors and monetary policymakers should forget about the risk of deflation
Japan: Private consumption and net-exports propel the economy higher in Q3, but corporate spending shrinks
China: The economy gained momentum in October, as President Trump helped Beijing making 'China great again'. The world's biggest free-trade deal signed this weekend
13. November 2020
US households face tough months ahead as the third wave of the coronavirus hits the shore more forcefully than in H1. There is no Covid19 strategy until January 20
USA: The federal deficit jumps in October boosted by soaring Covid19-related spending and the Trump tax cuts in 2017
12. November 2020
Euro-zone: A weak industrial report in September. A vaccine will not prevent a stop-and-go economy, as Covid19 will take a heavy toll until April-May
Japan: Falling machinery orders in September are a huge disappointment. Japan's and the global business sector want to 'see more' before boosting investments. This could close the output gap faster than expected in several sectors
Britain: The economy bounces back in Q3, but the UK remains among the worst-performing countries in 2020. 'Covid19 mutation' is 'skyrocketing public sector debt'
11. November 2020
The only difference between Turkey and Brazil is that President Erdogan finally acknowledges his big policy mistakes. Do not expect Bolsonaro to do the same
USA: Joe Biden won the election, but time is with Donald Trump, at least until January 5, as the Republicans need him in Georgia's run-off election
China faces 'monetary tightening' caused by its own success and the 'failure' of Europe and the United States. Monetary exit talk is premature
Australia benefits strongly from a 'close to zero-tolerance' strategy and aggressive global easing - but Beijing widens 'trade embargo'
10. November 2020
USA: Small business sentiment remains highly upbeat - even before yesterday's positive vaccine news
Germany: ZEW survey shows that Europe is headed towards trouble without a 'mass-distributed' vaccine tomorrow - and not in April 2021
China: Consumer prices decline due to imported pork and meat supply, but no signs of 'core deflation'
9. November 2020
The beginning of the end for the Erdogan dynasty? A fired central bank governor and the President's son-in-law resigning make the lira rally
Japan: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back strongly in October, but service sentiment remains significantly below the pre-Covid19 level. Unwinding short-Japan-stock-market strategy
China: Exporters are among the main beneficiaries of the 'economic mitigation' strategy in Europe and the United States
6. November 2020
USA: The rebound in the labour market was stronger than market expectations in  October - but there is still a long way to go
Germany: Industrial production report disappoints. Hard data fails to show what is outlined by soft data. When will policymakers focus on the problem, a virus?
5. November 2020
USA: Weekly jobless claims report remains a harbinger of a strong October employment report on Friday
Sweden: The economy bounces back nicely in Q3. A strong fiscal position makes the country well-prepared for a bumpy 2021
Germany: Industrial orders lost momentum in September, but the outlook remains positive, according to IFO
4. November 2020
USA: ISM service sentiment survey disappoints shortly before the election. Today, the situation is no better than two days ago
USA: ADP Employment report disappoints significantly considering a sharp decline in the weekly 'continued jobless claims' number
Spain: Public hiring and the furlough scheme are not enough to support the labour market. Daily Covid19 cases have doubled within two weeks
A short note on the not yet clarified US election: The outcome is a catastrophe for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party considering heavy headwinds for President Trump in the form of Covid19
China: Private service sentiment index jumps in October. Jack Ma is 'reprimanded' after sticking his neck out too often
3. November 2020
Turkey: Skyrocketing inflation at the factory gates bodes ill for consumer price inflation and the lira in the coming months by courtesy of President Erdogan
2. November 2020
USA: ISM manufacturing index jumps in October. The orders index skyrocketed to the highest level since January 2004
A short note on the next leg of the Covid19 storyboard: A peak in November makes leeway for the next wave by mid-January
China: The economy shows no signs of slowing, according to the official as well as the private PMI surveys. Beijing provides hints of what the next five-year plan might include
30. October 2020
Japan: The manufacturing sector bounces back, but headwinds prevail. Global risk-off could lead to sharp yen appreciation and, consequently, a steep sell-off in the stock market
Germany: A robust recovery in Q3, but the second wave of Covid19 has now hit the shore and triggered a new 'national lockdown'
France: The economy bounces back strongly in Q3 propelled by policymakers' one and only 'plan A' - but there is no 'plan B' to fight the next leg in the Covid19 storyboard
29. October 2020
USA: The economy bounced back sharply in Q3 supported by strong private consumption and inventories. The next leg of a still untamed coronavirus will hit growth and the stock market in the coming months
Euro-zone: The manufacturing sector adjusting to Covid19 will no longer be enough to mitigate the impact of a suffering service sector
South Korea: Manufacturing and service sentiment jumps in October, as the country sacrifices 'privacy' to fight a pandemic
28. October 2020
Spain needs significant financial support, but this will be an uphill struggle as rich EU-members face their own Covid19 problems
Sweden: Economic sentiment improves in October, but 'what happened one week ago is old news' in Covid19 times
27. October 2020
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey shows an improving 'present situation' but falling expectations. Households' assessment of the labour market improves markedly
USA: Corporate spending continues to disappoint despite upbeat spending plans
Euro-zone: The ECB takes the lead in the global money-printing competition. This could weaken the 'euro-bull case'