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12. February 2020
Euro-zone: Industrial output plunges in December - China's coronavirus outbreak could hit Euro-zone growth harder than currently assessed by the financial market
Germany: CDU's leadership faces 'mission impossible'. Berlin's reversal of the 'Thuringia decision' makes leeway for a far-left Minister-President
11. February 2020
USA: The NFIB small business sentiment survey continues to show a buoyant domestic economy - the labour market is tight and compensation is on the rise
10. February 2020
The Euro-zone faces more headwinds: Italy's industrial output plunges, and CDU party boss steps down making leeway to more turmoil at the political centre of Europe
China: The virus outbreak 'appears' close to a peak, but the macroeconomic consequences could prove to be huge. When is Beijing forced to declare the coronavirus outbreak 'secondary' and 'growth' primary?
7. February 2020
USA: A strong labour market report in January despite weak demand for workers in the ISM employment indexes. The rate of wage increases remains moderate
China: Steady foreign exchange reserves in January do not disguise a trend of a weakening FX position. The White House shows no signs of trade reconciliation
Germany: Manufacturing output plunges in December. 'China crisis' will create short-term problems, but the real issue is Berlin in disarray
6. February 2020
Germany: CDU and FDP have just done what many feared would happen sooner or later
The latest chart update of the coronavirus outbreak: New cases in China slows substantially but accelerates outside China. Why are there no cases in Africa?
Germany: Industrial orders plunge at the fastest annual rate since October 2009 ahead of the coronavirus outbreak
5. February 2020
USA: ISM service survey shows evidence of a 'moderate' rebound in growth in the first half of 2020 - assuming the 'coronavirus stays at bay'
USA: ADP Employment Report shows a steep jump in hiring in January
Euro-zone: Retail sales contracted in December. Households need a new driving factor in 2020 - and the coronavirus to stay away
China: Caixin PMI service index, the falling information value of Chinese statistics and the risk of a shortage of everyday basic commodities
4. February 2020
A short update on the latest coronavirus statistics - 'a little light at the end of the tunnel?'
Recorded web session: Web session meeting with onsite sources from Shanghai and Sichuan about what comes next - only available this week
3. February 2020
INVITATION - Web session meeting with onsite sources from Shanghai and Sichuan about what comes next. The economic, political and production impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Email the editor as soon as possible to register - February 4, 09:30 CET
USA: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back in line with the regional surveys. Households see new tailwinds 'sponsored' by problems abroad
Turkey: Inflation is on the rise as President Erdogan launches fiscal stimulus and monetary easing at the expense of price stability and the lira
Sweden: Manufacturing PMI index bounces back sharply, but the coronavirus outbreak makes this 'history' - for the time being
China: Weak Caixin PMI survey before the coronavirus outbreak - China has only a few 'pull factors' compared to 2003
31. January 2020
Weak Euro-zone growth in the last quarter of 2019. Italy's economy contracts, and Spain is the main growth contributor
China: National PMI survey provides little information about the future. 'March 1' is crucial for the global supply chain
France: The economy contracts in the last quarter of 2019 due to a significant drag from inventories. Real domestic demand remains robust
30. January 2020
USA: A sharp decline in imports was the main growth contributor in the last quarter of 2019. Also, corporate spending contracted
The coronavirus, the global supply chain and the world's response to China's nightmare
Euro-zone: The EU Commission's Business and Consumer Survey shows 'moderate optimism' shortly before the extent of the coronavirus outbreak was known
South Korea: Bank of Korea business survey shows a strong rebound in sentiment after plenty of fiscal and monetary stimulus. The country faces secular headwinds from adverse demographics
29. January 2020
France: Consumer confidence bounces back in January as President Macron's reform process has already made visible results
Italy: Business and consumer surveys herald flat or negative growth in 2020. Time is on the side of Matteo Salvini
Podcast interview (must-listen) with Steffen Schiottz-Christensen, IFU, in Chengdu, about the coronavirus impact, the consequences for the global supply chain and Jyllandsposten's cartoon - Anecdotal evidence from Sichuan [FREE ACCESS]
28. January 2020
USA: Consumer confidence jumps in January. Also, the Richmond Fed index skyrockets
Podcast interview with Anders Ellemann Kristensen in Beijing, General Manager, Albatros Travel China, about the coronavirus impact - Anecdotal evidence from Beijing [FREE ACCESS]
USA: Durable goods orders continue to show a weak underlying trend in corporate spending despite tax cuts
Spain: The quarterly unemployment rate hits the lowest level since 2008, but the best forward-looking indicators herald a significantly weak labour market in 2020
27. January 2020
USA: New home sales report disappoints in December despite low mortgage rates - but the housing market is expected to be strong in the first half of 2020
A short note on the Coronavirus outbreak: Beijing's efficient response to the outbreak poses, ironically, a significant risk to short-term growth. The next surprise might emerge outside China
Germany: IFO survey disappoints as service sentiment declines. Trade rhetoric from the White House warns about retaliation if carbon import tax is imposed on foreign products
23. January 2020
Turkey: Consumer confidence stays close to a record low despite aggressive monetary and fiscal easing. The lira is at risk
USA: Existing home sales report shows a buoyant housing market boosting households' wealth effect significantly by courtesy of the Federal Reserve
Japan: The December trade report shows no signs of an upcoming rebound. Nearly ten million Chinese tourists are suddenly a liability
A short note on the risk of a pandemic caused by a new strain of coronavirus in China - The difference from the Sars-outbreak in 2003
21. January 2020
2020 Outlook roadshow: There will be no or only delayed updates on January 22
Germany: Investor sentiment jumps, according to the January ZEW survey
Britain: The best forward-looking employment indicators show a 'less upbeat' rather than a 'downbeat' labour market
A short note on the new strain of coronavirus in China
20. January 2020
Taiwanese export orders report shows tentative signs of a meagre rebound in global and Chinese manufacturing activity
17. January 2020
USA: Housing starts skyrocket to the highest level since 2006 as tailwinds prevail
Britain: Retail sales disappointing big time in December raises the likelihood of negative growth in Q4. Fiscal stimulus measures are in the pipeline
China 'decides' to report the slowest growth rate since 1989. The underlying details should give rise for concern in Washington and Brussels
16. January 2020
USA: Strong third-quarter retail sales statistics as households barely see headwinds
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows tentative signs of bouncing back. This still needs to be reflected in the national ISM survey
Turkey: Ankara cuts policy rates aggressively at the same time as the fiscal deficit hits a new all-time high
China: House prices are even weaker than reflected in official statistics. The dark clouds remain on the horizon despite a 'fantastic' trade deal
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey fails to show a rebound in downbeat manufacturing sentiment despite US-China trade deal and fiscal stimulus measures
15. January 2020
USA: Manufacturing Empire State survey shows no evidence of a 'fantastic phase-one trade deal'
Euro-zone: A record high trade surplus with the United States provides more ammo to the next leg in the 'global trade war'
China: Trade report shows signs of stronger infrastructure spending - weak 'phase one' trade deal will only 'buy time'
13. January 2020
Britain: The economy shows signs of broad-based contraction in the last quarter of 2019. The outlook is deteriorating
France: A short note on the government's decision not to raise the retirement age
10. January 2020
USA: Employment report is neither too cold nor too hot, at least from the perspective of the Federal Reserve
Spain: Manufacturing output bounced back in November, but consumer confidence falls sharply in December. The left-wing coalition plans a reversal of the labour market reform
Iran scoring an own goal by shooting down a Ukrainian passenger plane weakens the case for Tehran
Global: The rebound in leading manufacturing indicators has so far been a huge disappointment. Policymakers are close to pressing the 'panic button' as 'zero growth' is not an option
7. January 2020
USA: ISM service headline index improves in December, but the underlying details remain weak
Euro-zone: Robust consumer spending bodes well for growth in the last quarter of 2019. Nonetheless, the outlook is less upbeat
A short note on John Bolton's offer to testify: The Democrats have nothing to lose
Sweden: PMI service survey shows lacklustre growth outlook - but the forecast for the Swedish currency remains positive
6. January 2020
Iran crisis: Trump won a pyrrhic victory, but the United States risks becoming the big loser while Beijing wisely stays out of the conflict
3. January 2020
USA: Disappointingly weak manufacturing ISM survey as 'fantastic' trade deal fails to boost sentiment. Production index plunges
The killing of Iran Revolutionary Guard commander could turn into a nightmare for President Trump who is not prepared for the next step in the conflict
Global macroeconomic update presentation focusing on the main drivers in 2020
2. January 2020
Sweden: Weak manufacturing PMI survey in December will not change the fact that low-public-sector-debt currencies will outperform in the first half of 2020
China: Weak PMI surveys underscore why Beijing is now on a path of more aggressive monetary easing. Financial repression gains the upper hand
20. December 2019
There will be no updates from December 23 until January 1, both days included, due to the Christmas holiday.
Germany: GfK survey shows a steep decline in households' income expectations as negative interest rates, perversely, boost the savings rate to the highest level since 2008
19. December 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey shows weak short-term demand but strong long-term demand
France: The broader business sentiment index remains buoyant, as President Macron still has the upper hand
18. December 2019
A short update on the euro against the US dollar. What escalating trade tensions in 2020 mean for the euro?
Germany: IFO index bounces back in December propelled by sentiment in the service sector. Manufacturing sector barely improves. Robert Lighthizer and China threaten Germany and the EU
17. December 2019
USA: Manufacturing output rose in November. What if the best short-term leading indicators were to bounce back sharply in January?
Britain: A robust labour market is on its last legs, but a recession is no longer part of the storyboard
USA: Homebuilder sentiment index jumps to the highest level since June 1999 as housing 'demand' benefits from an unusually accommodative monetary environment
16. December 2019
USA: Manufacturing Empire State index barely bounces back from an already low level, but the capital expenditure index jumps
China: House prices continue to increase at a slower pace as Beijing enters a path of monetary easing
China: Manufacturing output bounces back, but underlying details remain weak. Beijing 'bullying' raises fundamental questions overseas about the future relationship with China
13. December 2019
USA: November retail sales report disappoints, but consumer spending will remain robust in the first half of 2020
Anecdotal evidence from China: The economy remains weak and the leadership appears divided. Beijing needs, therefore, a trade deal more than ever before
A short note to the 'Torben Andersen podcast interview' - Why central banks are worried about the consequences of digital currencies
The primary lesson from Britain's national election: 'Stay away from the far-left' and show unity
12. December 2019
USA: Benign inflation environment in November. A tight labour market poses a much larger risk to price stability than import tariffs
Japan: Machinery orders plunge in October. Tokyo plans to launch fiscal stimulus measures equivalent to 2% of GDP
Podcast interview with Torben M Andersen, former chairman of the Danish Economic Council and the Welfare Commission, about whether QE has failed and, if so, 'what went wrong?' [FREE ACCESS]
11. December 2019
There will be no updates on December 11
10. December 2019
USA: Small business survey shows the highest share of respondents planning to raise wages since 1989
Germany: ZEW survey shows improving investor sentiment as both monetary and fiscal policy is expected to be accommodative in 2020; but the economy remains fragile
France: President Macron faces a decisive battle reminiscent of Prime Minister Thatcher's struggle with the miners in the 1980s
China: Soaring pork prices propel consumer price inflation to the highest level seen since 2011
9. December 2019
A short note on the US employment report: The labour force of 'needed' workers appears to have reached the upper limit
China: Trade details show Beijing is slowly turning towards 'classic' stimulus measures, as US-China relations are heading for long-term deterioration
6. December 2019
USA: Consumer confidence jumps as households see only tailwinds - even from the Federal Reserve
USA: Employment report shows a massive increase in new jobs although this was not enough to lure many more workers into the labour force
Germany: Manufacturing output drops at the fastest annual rate since November 2009
Japan: PM Abe's cabinet approves a huge fiscal stimulus package as real household spending takes a beating
5. December 2019
Euro-zone: Households are the main growth contributor, but households in Southern Europe could turn into a major drag on growth in 2020
Germany: Industrial orders decline by more than expected in October; 'big items' orders prevent an even sharper decline
4. December 2019
USA: ISM service index disappoints, but the underlying details are slightly less downbeat
USA: ADP Employment shows weak job creation in November. More weakness to come in Q1
Sweden: Service sentiment moves deeper into the contraction zone. The broader economy could contract in Q1
3. December 2019
Take profit in the 'long Swedish currency strategy'
Spain could be headed towards a significant increase in unemployment in 2020
2. December 2019
USA: Manufacturing ISM survey is a significant disappointment. No signs of a rebound in corporate spending
Sweden: PMI survey shows no signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector
Germany: SPD's new leadership will move the party further to the left and boost the probability of fiscal stimulus measures
China: PMI survey shows a rebound in business sentiment, but details and anecdotal evidence herald more weakness to come
29. November 2019
India: Economic growth drops to the slowest rate since Q1 2013
Sweden: Strong net-export in Q3 supports the economy. The properties of the currency are 'value' as well as 'cyclical'
Japan: Manufacturing output falls at the fastest annual rate since 2013 beyond what could be explained by a powerful typhoon
South Korea: Industrial production falls sharply in October. Business sentiment indicators 'appear' to have reached rock bottom, but a bumpy road ahead
28. November 2019
EU survey: Euro-zone sentiment showing broad-based improvement reduces the risk of recession in 2020, but the economy is still headed towards 'shallow growth'
Japan: Increasing household consumption before VAT hike leads to a sharp fall in retail sales in October. IMF urges Tokyo to raise VAT rate to 15%
27. November 2019
USA: Durable goods orders manage to increase in October but continue to contract on an annual basis
China: Industrial profit falls sharply in October. Economic growth is headed lower in 2020 without new stimulus measures
France: Consumer confidence jumps in November. Households expect unemployment to fall in the future
USA: Richmond Fed survey also shows contraction in corporate spending
26. November 2019
USA: Robust new home sales statistics show upbeat 'long-term' consumer sentiment
Sweden: Benign inflation at the factory gates but higher than in the Euro-zone. Why the next global downturn 'could' be different for the Swedish currency
Germany: Consumer sentiment improves as households see stronger short-term tailwinds, but financial repression erodes their future spending power
USA: Dallas Fed survey shows stabilisation in the manufacturing sector but also a steep decline in the capital expenditure plans index
25. November 2019
A short note on comments from Liu He evading the attention of the financial market
Germany: IFO survey shows no 'decisive' evidence of an upcoming rebound. Financial repression could hit households hard in 2020
By Invitation: Stealth leadership - Silence on key challenges at China's recent Central Committee meeting
22. November 2019
Germany: Q3 GDP details show a 'slightly stronger' underlying economy than reflected by the preliminary report
21. November 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed headline index concludes rock bottom in manufacturing sentiment, but details show a mixed picture
Turkey: Consumer confidence index bounces back but remains close to the lowest level since 2009
France: No further signs of weaker business sentiment. The positive impact of President Macron's reforms hits the shores, but the budget deficit is on the rise
20. November 2019
++There will only be delayed updates on Thursday, November 21++
Global trade: The latest statistics show no signs of an upcoming rebound
Germany: Prices at the factory gates move deeper into the contraction zone. Unions and employers call for a €450 billion infrastructure spending initiative
19. November 2019
China: The fiscal deficit in October hits the highest level seen in the last three decades. Beijing has few options left
A short note on the US dollar and the euro: Diverging central bank balance sheets erode support for a fundamentally overvalued US dollar
18. November 2019
A short note on Hong Kong, US-China trade negotiations and the 'leaked documents'
15. November 2019
USA: Weak industrial output will keep the Federal Reserve on a path of 'quantitative easing' - more manufacturing weakness 'beyond GM' is in the pipeline
USA: Household spending is losing momentum, according to the October retail sales report, but consumers still see more tailwinds than headwinds
Euro-zone: The trade surplus with the United States hits a new all-time high
China: 'Second-hand' house price statistics show weakness. Beijing faces a dilemma
14. November 2019
Turkey: Industrial output makes a sharp rebound. Falling inflation makes leeway for more rate cuts
Japan: Weak Q3 GDP growth because 'front-loading' of private consumption was absent despite a hike in the value-added-tax rate
Germany: The economy escapes 'technical recession' but weakness in the auto sector could soon hit the service sector
China: Beijing faces economic headwinds, which are not within the range of the 'new normal'
13. November 2019
USA: Benign inflation continues to boost households' real purchasing power. Fiscal and monetary policy remains accommodative late in the business cycle
A short note on the swine fever in China: Why the outbreak worries Beijing as price pressure boost other food prices. Swine fever is spreading to other places around the world
Britain: Declining inflation maintains a robust rise in households' real spending power, but the best for households is coming to an end
The corporate sector created a supply chain based on costs optimisation. The price of rising 'political diversification' will add upward pressure on inflation further down the road
12. November 2019
Germany: ZEW survey bounces back, but the growth outlook remains weak
USA: Small business sentiment index increases in October as the job market remains buoyant
India: Manufacturing output plunges at the fastest rate since 2011. Moody's downgrades credit rating as the country 'is undergoing a significant slowdown'
11. November 2019
Britain: Manufacturing output contracts, but PM Johnson headed for a huge election victory in December provides some light at the end of the tunnel
China: Aggressive monetary policy easing is needed, but this is not possible in the current environment of a possible 'trade deal' and soaring food price inflation
China: Swine fever propels consumer price inflation to the highest level since 2012. Producer prices move deeper into the deflation zone
8. November 2019
USA: Consumer confidence is barely changed in November at an elevated level. The unanswered question is whether there is a Sino-US deal or not?
Germany: September trade statistics show signs of stabilisation, but no signs yet of an upcoming rebound
China: October report shows a more benign decline in foreign trade, but imports from the United States hit the lowest level since 2012
7. November 2019
Germany: Manufacturing output plunges at the fastest rate since October 2012. More weakness to come, according to IFO
A 'harmonious' Sino-US relationship? Sustainable? If so, who benefits?
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey - Manufacturing and service sentiment plunges in November - Bank of Japan ponders new monetary measures
6. November 2019
Spain: The economy is losing momentum. Industrial output is forecast to contract in the first half of 2020
Germany: Non-Euro-zone orders boost industrial orders as Economic Council lowers the 2020 forecast to below 1%
5. November 2019
USA: Service ISM index bounces back propelled by improving news flow. Nonetheless, the growth outlook remains weak, according to the combined surveys
USA: The trade deficit falls at the same time as manufacturers assess inventories to be too high. The deficit with the EU hit a new all-time high
China: The domestic economy is much weaker than reflected by 'upbeat sentiment' in the financial market. Beijing is 'cornered' by soaring pork prices
4. November 2019
USA: Factory orders decline again in September. More to come in the coming months, but the Federal Reserve managing to steepen the yield curve gives rise for some short-term optimism
Germany: Angela Merkel and her successor, AKK, are under siege within the CDU. The coalition government in Berlin is at risk
Switzerland: Consumer confidence plunges to the lowest level since 2009 as workers do not benefit from the recovery but feel the pain from the downturn
Unwind short-European-stock-market recommendation
1. November 2019
USA: A meagre rebound in manufacturing sentiment is a disappointment considering that the trade conflict has been 'solved'
USA: Robust labour market report is a function of growth in the past three months. The best forward-looking employment indicators herald weakness in the first half of 2020
Japan: The unemployment rate increases and the leading employment indicator deteriorates again in September
31. October 2019
Euro-zone: The economy is headed towards shallow growth. ECB President Lagarde accuses Germany and the Netherlands of sitting on their hands
China: PMI surveys support anecdotal evidence of a weak economy, as companies and households are aware of economic headwinds beyond a 'fantastic' trade deal with the USA
30. October 2019
USA: Private consumption fuels, as usual, economic growth in the third quarter. The best leading indicators herald significantly weaker growth
Euro-zone: Sentiment deteriorates across the board, but 'recession' is still not part of the equation, according to the survey
Italy's Matteo Salvini patiently waits for disillusioned voters to come to him. The strategy could prove highly successful in 2020
France: Q3 GDP report shows moderate growth sponsored by government spending. No signs of 'recession' but Paris has no fiscal ammo left
29. October 2019
USA: 'Lagging' consumer sentiment remains at an elevated level, but combined ISM indexes herald employment contraction in Q1
Spain: Consumer spending remains robust and sentiment remains high, although the country is heading for another national election. Far-right Vox Party is expected to see a sharp increase in support
France: Consumer confidence stays at an elevated level. Nonetheless, Paris and the rest of Europe are headed towards a long period of subdued growth
28. October 2019
Germany: Thuringia state election is yet another defeat to Chancellor Merkel. The far-left and far-right gain strongly
USA: Budget deficit soars as the White House's economic plan derails. Defence spending jumps
25. October 2019
Germany: IFO survey did not show further weakness, but the economy remains in the contraction zone
24. October 2019
USA: New home sales report disappoints in September, but still no signs of recession
USA: Durable goods orders report shows no signs yet of a decisive turnaround in corporate spending
Turkey: Russia and President Trump make leeway for a substantial rate cut. More to come as Moscow and Beijing provide Ankara with a life jacket
South Korea: Private investments put a drag on Q3 growth. Fiscal expansion and more rate cuts in the pipeline
23. October 2019
France: The repercussion of Germany's economic weakness is slowly impacting the rest of Europe. French manufacturing sentiment drops to the lowest level since March 2015
By Invitation: China's Corporate Social Credit System - Level Playing Field or Forced Digital Hand?
22. October 2019
USA: The Federal Reserve continues to sponsor the housing market. Existing home prices rose at the fastest rate since January 2018
Britain: CBI Industrial Trends survey predicts an 'unavoidable' recession 
21. October 2019
Taiwanese export orders and South Korean October trade data show no signs yet of an upcoming rebound
China: House price inflation continues to slow. Beijing still sits on its hands - but for how long?
Podcast interview with Steffen Jensen, Danish TV2's Middle East correspondent, about yet another crisis in Syria, European hypocrisy, Africa, and the risk of a new migrant crisis [FREE ACCESS]
18. October 2019
China: Growth hits the lowest level since 1992 as reluctant policymakers consider new measures. Aggressive money-printing is not possible as long as the trade negotiations are 'successful'
17. October 2019
USA: Industrial production contracted in September. The downturn in the manufacturing sector will accelerate in the coming months, according to the ISM survey
USA - Philadelphia Fed survey: A decline in the headline index disguises strong underlying details
Britain: Retail sales are holding up well considering strong political headwinds, but the economy is losing momentum. Prime Minister Johnson cannot afford to show weakness in the Brexit negotiations
16. October 2019
USA: Retail sales report disappoints in September, but private consumption will still make a robust contribution to Q3 GDP growth
South Korea: The Bank of Korea cuts policy rates as the economy faces deflation
China: Credit expansion is far too weak to support the economy. Yet another failed trade deal will fundamentally change the situation
15. October 2019
Germany: ZEW survey continues to show gloomy investor sentiment. Europe faces significant geopolitical risks
USA: Manufacturing Empire State survey shows signs of stabilising sentiment at a low level. The White House needs a new 'external enemy': Europe
China: Producer prices move deeper into the 'deflation zone'. Consumer price inflation boosted by a 69.3% increase in pork prices
14. October 2019
Euro-zone: Industrial output contracts but consumers are still supporting the economy. Nonetheless, the union faces several headwinds
Yet another disappointing China-USA trade deal, buying time for Beijing: The NBA case shows the flip side of having a significant exposure to China. The next challenge: the corporate social credit system
China: September trade report shows no signs of a rebound in global trade. Beijing could soon turn more hawkish towards Washington
11. October 2019
USA: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index jumps back in line with the Conference Board consumer confidence index
India: Manufacturing output declines at the fastest rate since February 2013
Disruptive forces: The European Union faces the risk of a new migration wave as the conditions for the 'perfect storm' are building in the Middle East and North Africa
10. October 2019
Britain: Manufacturing output drops in August. The best leading indicators herald the steepest decline in output since 2009 in the coming months
Germany: Exports fell sharply in August. No signs of improvement as auto exporters face global cyclical headwinds and technology disruption
A short note on the China-USA trade negotiations: President Xi Jinping too close to the 'losing-face zone' poses a significant risk to the financial market
Japan: Machinery orders fall sharply as the aftermath of 'Abenomics' emerges. Also, a short note on the China-USA trade negotiations
9. October 2019
Australia: Consumer sentiment plunges to the lowest level since 2015
USA: Federal Reserve officially 'opts' again for balance sheet expansion even though this already started two months ago
8. October 2019
USA: Small business sentiment declines but remains at an elevated level. The job market tightens
A short note: The highly symbolic NBA-Beijing conflict shows the corporate risks attached to the Chinese market. These risks are not priced into the stock market
EU, Rome and Berlin face the risk of a new migration wave as the conditions for the 'perfect storm' are building in the Middle East and North Africa
Germany: Industrial output surprises to the upside in August, but the outlook remains grim. Berlin faces the risk of a new migration wave
Japan: The headline index in the Economy Watcher survey jumps while the 'future outlook index' plunges
7. October 2019
Japan downgrades growth forecast to 'worsening', which is usually associated with 'recession'
Germany: Domestic demand pulls industrial orders down in August. IFO survey heralds more weakness to come
4. October 2019
USA: The economy shows robust job growth but the forward-looking indicators herald significantly lower growth
When 'cutting corners' is no longer an efficient policy option
3. October 2019
USA: The service sector is headed in the same direction as the manufacturing sector. The Federal Reserve will turn significantly more dovish
Turkey: Another sharp decline in inflation boosts the likelihood of more rate cuts. President Erdogan faces increasing dissent within the AKP
Sweden: A shockingly weak service survey should give rise to more concern across Europe as most countries are now left without ammo
2. October 2019
USA: ADP Employment Report shows weak job creation in the manufacturing sector. Tomorrow's ISM survey will show whether this is spreading to the service sector
The risk of Chinese intervention in Hong Kong will increase sharply shortly after the anniversary celebrations in Beijing
Japan: Consumer confidence falls sharply as households fail to benefit from Abenomics. The risk of a deteriorating 'global perception' of the global economic situation
1. October 2019
There will be only delayed updates on October 1
USA: ISM manufacturing sentiment moves deeper into recession territory. The headline index hits the lowest level since June 2009
Sweden: Manufacturing sentiment falls sharply into the recession zone. Export orders index plunges
30. September 2019
Euro-zone unemployment rate declines to the lowest level since May 2008 at the same time as industrial sentiment plunges
Japan: Industrial output falls sharply in August, as global manufacturing sentiment continues to weaken. South Korean exports in September declined at the fastest pace since July 2009
China: Caixin manufacturing index bounces back, but there is no anecdotal evidence of stronger growth. Capital outflow is on the rise
Unplugged 'Travel Notes' from China: No signs of a growth rebound, but still plenty of opportunities although the low-hanging fruits are gone
19. September 2019
China trip: There will be no updates on September 20 and September 23-27 - Delayed updates on October 1
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey indicates robust short-term growth, but a sharp decline in the  'long-term' indicator closes the gap to a flat yield curve
USA: The Federal Reserve fails to fulfil excessive rate cut expectations in the financial market. Money market volatility gives rise to 'some concern'
18. September 2019
USA: Housing starts and permits skyrocketing to the highest level since 2007 raise new doubt about the Federal Reserve's dovish stance
Italy headed towards recession will propel Salvini back into power in 2020. Renzi abandons the Democratic Party and starts a new party
Japan: No signs yet of a rebound in foreign trade - Exports drop by 8.2% year-on-year in August
17. September 2019
USA: Industrial output surprises to the upside in August but the outlook heralds significant weakness
China: House price inflation declines in August. Beijing will do 'whatever it takes' to avoid asset price deflation but the situation is more complicated today
16. September 2019
USA: Empire State survey shows no signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector. Corporate spending plans plunge in September
A short note on the impact of the drone attacks in Saudia Arabia
China: Weak economic statistics underscore that Beijing underestimates the power of headwinds
13. September 2019
USA: Solid retail sales as households still see no major headwinds. It will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to fulfil excessive rate cut expectations
USA: The Federal Reserve should not listen to the 'turncoat' - Historically low real bond yields, the federal budget deficit jumps and core inflation hits the highest level since 2008
12. September 2019
ECB cuts the deposit rate by ten basis points as Mario Draghi has come too far away from the shore from where he came
Japan: Reuters Tankan manufacturing index falls sharply in September as the growth outlook continues to deteriorate
11. September 2019
USA: Core producer inflation rose in August. The Federal Reserve is still lured into cutting policy rates in September
China: Monetary statistics show that Beijing is forced to act more aggressively in 2020. The yuan will continue to suffer
China: Beijing is 'forced' to scrap the QFII quota system as it needs to reduce the risk of capital outflow caused by more aggressive monetary easing
USA: The departure of a hawkish John Bolton leaves US foreign policy in the hands of a turncoat
10. September 2019
USA: Small business sentiment declines in August but remains strong. Labour shortage hits a new record high
Italy: The economic downturn combined with a new government coalition creates the foundation for stronger support for the League in 2020
China: Soaring pork prices keep consumer price inflation in positive territory. A weak economy moves PPI prices deeper into the contraction zone. More yuan depreciation in the pipeline as QE seems highly likely
9. September 2019
Britain: The outlook for manufacturers remains weak. Chancellor Sajid Javid 'signals an end to fiscal discipline'
Germany: Exports surprise to the upside in July, but the outlook remains weak. Imports contract. Fiscal expansion is required but 'without hurting the climate', according to a majority of voters
China: Exports to the United States plunge by more than 15%. A reluctant Beijing will be forced to launch aggressive monetary easing
6. September 2019
USA: Employment report shows a mixed picture. The labour force jumps as workers see job opportunities in a tight labour market
China cuts banks' reserve requirements; a reluctant Beijing will be forced to launch 'QE with Chinese characteristics'
Japan: The Diffusion Index shows a grim growth outlook in the next six months. Tokyo can only bet on aggressive monetary stimulus measures in China. Beijing might soon opt for such an outcome 
Germany: Manufacturing output falls sharply in July. Berlin will respond, but the response will come too slowly and too little
5. September 2019
USA: ISM service index jumps in August but the employment index plunges to the lowest level since March 2017
USA: ADP employment report continues to show a strong, but 'lagging', labour market benefiting from a robust economy in the past
Germany: Industrial orders fall sharply in July. More weakness to come according to the IFO survey. Is Chancellor Merkel present?
4. September 2019
USA: Trade deficit with China continues to decline but increases against the EU. Imports and exports are headed towards the steepest decline since 2009
Europe: The monetary experiment is running out of control; the credibility of fiat money is eroding
Euro-zone retail sales report is still in line with robust consumer spending in the third quarter of 2019
Australia: A weak Q2 GDP report considering that secular demographic tailwind prevails. More rate cuts are in the pipeline
3. September 2019
USA: ISM survey shows an increased risk of recession in the manufacturing sector
Brazil: President Bolsonaro is slowly turning into a 'liability' as his political base of support crumbles
Europe: A deteriorating labour market is the 'missing factor' in the 'game plan' of political parties on the far right and left. The 'missing factor' is on the horizon!
Turkey: Inflation falling sharply in August will animate Ankara to cut policy rates more in the near future
2. September 2019
Sweden: Manufacturing business sentiment stabilises in August. A change in the policy mix makes the Swedish currency look 'slightly more attractive'
Germany: State elections in Brandenburg and Sachsen create 'relief' in Berlin despite skyrocketing support to AfD. The reaction is yet another policy-mistake made by Berlin
China's official manufacturing PMI index stays in the contraction zone. The 'real picture' is worse than reflected by the 'leading' PMI surveys
30. August 2019
Spain: Retail sales jump in July. The growth outlook improves markedly, according to the leading business surveys
Switzerland: Unchanged KOF headline index still attaches a high probability to the outcome of 'recession'
Japan: Industrial output bounces back, but retail sales plunge. Overall outlook deteriorates rapidly, according to the best forward-looking surveys
29. August 2019
EU Commission survey surprises to the upside, but the labour market is deteriorating, according to Euro-zone households, not least in Germany 
Japan: Consumer confidence declines to the lowest level since April 2015; the share of households expecting inflation above 2 per cent increases to a new high
28. August 2019
Euro-zone: Monetary aggregates expand at a much faster rate than expected, but available liquidity is not used to the same extent
Italy: The economy moves deeper into the 'recession zone'. A PD-M5S government coalition will offer Salvini a huge election victory in 2020
USA: Regional Fed surveys show companies are having second thoughts about investment plans
27. August 2019
USA: Conference Board's consumer confidence index jumps in August - the share of respondents seeing plentiful-of-jobs hits the highest level since September 2000
France: Upbeat business and consumer sentiment shows 'decoupling' from the 'weakest link', Germany, at least for the time being
Germany: Q2 GDP details show significant growth contraction from net-exports and 'positive' contribution from higher inventories
26. August 2019
USA: Durable goods orders report fails to show the 'expected' benefit of President Trump's corporate tax cuts
A short note on the Chinese currency: Yuan weakness 'despite' and not 'because of' Beijing
Germany: IFO survey heralds a deep recession in the second half of 2019 or going into 2020. Fiscal stimulus measures will come but far too slowly as Merkel remains 'Chancellor of inaction'
23. August 2019
USA: Robust July new home sales report after June number was revised up, but Federal Reserve' bias remains towards monetary easing
22. August 2019
Britain: CBI retailer sentiment index plunges to the lowest level since 2008; 'Boris Johnson effect' remains highly visible in the latest opinion poll
21. August 2019
USA: A robust housing market remains the 'missing factor' in the forecast of recession in 2020 as external shocks continue to support domestic demand
Aggressive fiscal stimulus measures would be the solution to everything 'if' the perverse argument of 'demography' is really the main factor behind negative bond yields - but it is not!
A short note on a weak 'China proxy' - 'The first-20-days' South Korean trade report continues to show weakness
20. August 2019
Taiwan: 'Mainland proxy' shows tentative signs that the 'downturn' might no longer be accelerating
Germany: Benign inflation and 'recession' make leeway for fiscal and monetary stimulus measures
19. August 2019
Japan: Sentiment plunges across the board, according to the Reuters Tankan survey
16. August 2019
USA: A sharp decline in consumer sentiment should give rise to some concern at the Federal Reserve, but households are still exposed to more tailwinds than headwinds
USA: A mixed housing market report, but falling mortgage rates will boost future activity. Skyrocketing refinancing supports existing homeowners
Turkey: Industrial output drops sharply. President Erdogan 'readjusts' his views to make new friends in Beijing
15. August 2019
USA: Manufacturing output contracts in July; more to come in the coming months but there are no signs yet of a 'collapse'
USA: Surprisingly strong manufacturing Philadelphia Fed survey. Retail sales jump as households benefit from low inflation, interest rates and a strong labour market
A short note on a flat US yield curve: A few missing factors are still needed to forecast a 'serious economic downturn'
China's highly regulated house prices see support from tier-2 and tier-3 cities, but oversupply is on the rise 
14. August 2019
Euro-zone Q2 GDP report: Germany and Italy are the two weakest links. Chancellor Merkel is slowly recognising the need for fiscal stimulus measures
Britain: Elevated price and wage inflation makes monetary policy a delicate balancing act for the Bank of England as 'recession' in 2020 is highly likely
Japan: Strong hard data, but soft data show a sharp deterioration in the growth outlook
China: Economic activity slowed significantly in July, but Beijing gets help from Trump blinking when the going gets tough
13. August 2019
USA: Small business sentiment bounces back and stays at an elevated level. Labour shortage hits an all-time high
Germany: ZEW index plunges in August to the lowest level since 2011 as the risk of recession increases dramatically
USA: Budget deficit soars despite robust nominal GDP growth in 2019 and 2018. 'Necessary' boost in defence spending will further inflate the deficit
12. August 2019
China: Monetary statistics still show no signs of panicking policy-makers. Beijing is too confident about the future
Germany: The economy slows rapidly ahead of crucial state elections in East Germany. Berlin is poised to launch aggressive fiscal stimulus measures
Podcast interview with Philip Christian Ulrich, Kongressen.com, about why 'America First' is here to stay - with or without the re-election of President Trump [FREE ACCESS]
A summary of the last two turbulent weeks of political and economic events
27. July 2019
There will be no updates from July 29 to August 9 due to vacation
26. July 2019
USA: Robust Q2 GDP report was stronger than outlined by the headline number. Real domestic demand jumped in Q2
Italy is going nowhere after Rome chose the line of least resistance. 'Fools' are forced to finance Rome
A short note on the after-effect of the IFO survey: 'Germany Not in Crisis Nor Mulling Stimulus'
25. July 2019
USA: The Federal Reserve has already made its decision with or without a better-than-expected durable goods orders report
South Korea: The economy is much weaker than reflected by the headline growth number in the Q2 GDP report
Spain: The unemployment rate hits the lowest level since 2008. Political mess is no problem as long as politicians do not take any decisions
Germany: IFO expectations index drops to the lowest level since July 2009. Service sector moves into a 'downswing'
24. July 2019
Euro-zone: ECB can only bet on a weaker euro. The current high real ten-year bond yield differential supports such a strategy
What the UN 2019 Population Projection says about the future - Presentation
France: Manufacturing and service sentiment surveys herald moderately slower growth. President Macron's next fight is with the greens trying to conquer the political centre
23. July 2019
USA: Existing home sales disappoint, but the monetary environment remains supportive
Britain: Manufacturing sentiment plunges to the lowest level since April 2010
22. July 2019
Taiwan: Weak export orders report is more evidence of a weak mainland economy
19. July 2019
USA: University of Michigan consumer survey continues to show upbeat households as they see no significant headwinds - and definitely not monetary headwind
Germany: Inflation at the factory gates falls sharply in June despite increasing labour costs
18. July 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey raises doubt about the credibility of the Federal Reserve. The short and long-term indicators jump. Employment index hits an all-time high
South Korea finally cuts policy rates as the country faces headwinds from all directions
Japan: Trade statistics show no signs of a rebound. Inventories are on the rise
17. July 2019
USA: Housing starts report disappoints in June, but the outlook remains upbeat according to the latest homebuilder survey
16. July 2019
USA: Very strong retail sales report discredits Fed Chairman Powell. This could turn into a significant policy mistake if manufacturing sentiment were to bounce back as well 
ZEW survey shows growing concern among investors regarding the extent of headwinds facing the German economy
Britain: The first profound impact of Brexit hits the shore, according to the June labour market report. The risk of recession in 2020 is on the rise
Brussels missed an opportunity to become a global player matching its size
15. July 2019
USA: Empire State manufacturing index bounces back in July after Fed Chairman Powell was 'bullied' into easing monetary policy
China: House price inflation slows as policymakers maintain tightening measures in the housing market
Chinese growth declined in the second quarter to the lowest level since the early 1990s
12. July 2019
USA: Producer price inflation remains benign despite import tariffs
China: Monetary statistics show no signs yet of aggressive easing measures
China: The June trade report pictures a weak economy. Trump is not rewarded by the Chinese to the extent 'promised by Beijing'
11. July 2019
USA: Core inflation increases as Fed Chairman Powell talks about a rate cut despite a soaring fiscal deficit
Turkey records a minor current account surplus as domestic demand has collapsed. The central bank governor is fired and close allies of President Erdogan are leaving the AK Party
10. July 2019
The French economy stands out from the crowd, but the Euro-zone's main growth engine is still down
Food for thought: In the past, inflation and higher interest rates created downturns. Today, are low interest rates creating the foundation for the next downturn?
China: Producer prices falling into the deflation zone indicates no signs of a manufacturing rebound
9. July 2019
USA: Small business sentiment declines after a strong rebound in the previous months. NFIB survey continues to show a very tight labour market
Japan: Nominal and real wages continue to contract despite historically low unemployment. The risk of recession is still high
8. July 2019
China's foreign exchange reserves stabilise, but for all the wrong reasons
Germany: A minor rebound in manufacturing activity in May does not change a gloomy outlook
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Sorensen from the Institute for Strategy at the Royal Danish Defence College about a wide range of global foreign policy issues linked to the Rise of China [FREE ACCESS]
5. July 2019
USA: Robust June labour market report rules out July rate cut
Germany: Industrial orders fall sharply as there are no signs of a rebound in demand. All factors point to a weak euro
4. July 2019
Euro-zone: Consumer spending disappoints in May despite cyclical tailwinds
3. July 2019
USA: Service sentiment index continues lower. The orders index falls sharply
Podcast interview with Morten Springborg, Thematic Specialist, about tech competition between China and the West, splinternet, 5G and how strong China's tech sector really is [FREE ACCESS]
Podcast interview with Casper Wichmann, China tech expert, about tech competition between China and the West, splinternet, 5G and how strong China's tech sector really is [FREE ACCESS]
A short note about the EU's top jobs decision: Compromise candidate Ursula von der Leyen is more political inaction. Christine Lagarde keeps the ECB Italian-French
China: Caixin service index declines. Anecdotal evidence of a much weaker economy
1. July 2019
There will be no 'daily macro' updates on July 2
USA: Manufacturing ISM index declines in June although less than market expectations. More worryingly, the ISM orders index fell again sharply
A short note on whether Huawei is a security or a commercial risk. The credibility of President Trump suffered significantly after the G-20 meeting
Bank of Japan Tankan survey shows more weakness than reflected in the monthly surveys; consumer confidence falls sharply in June
China: June PMI index stays in the contraction zone in spite of economic stimulus measures;  Xi Jinping and Donald Trump kick the can down the road, but $250 billion import tariffs remain
28. June 2019
Spain: Rajoy's economic reforms continue boosting growth despite a political mess. Europe turning left will soon dent fiscal credibility
Swiss economic indicators show an increased risk of a technical recession later in 2019; a harbinger of slower Euro-zone growth
Japan: Industrial production rose strongly in June despite extended Golden Week holidays
27. June 2019
EU survey: Euro-zone economic sentiment falls sharply in June; export downturn accelerates
Turkey: A sharp improvement in the economic confidence index does not change the 'double-dip recession scenario' - President Erdogan faces pressure from opposition and AKP
26. June 2019
USA: Durable goods orders continued to lose momentum in May despite the corporate tax cuts. The biggest obstacle to corporate spending is geopolitical uncertainty
France: Consumer sentiment continues to improve boosted by a better labour market and increasing real purchasing power, but the costs may be too high
Germany: Consumer climate deteriorates as households face increasing political uncertainty and a 'government of inaction' in Berlin
25. June 2019
USA: The Conference Board consumer confidence and new home sales statistics disappoint significantly to the downside
France: Service sentiment improves, but manufacturing headline index declines, as the export outlook index falls sharply in June
USA: The Dallas Fed manufacturing headline index plunges in June; corporate spending slows markedly
24. June 2019
Germany: IFO survey shows no signs of an upcoming rebound. Manufacturing sector moves closer to the 'recession zone'
Turkey: President Erdogan defeated in the rerun of the Istanbul election
21. June 2019
USA: Existing home sales report shows solid house price gains supported by low inventories of unsold 'new' homes
A short note on South Korea's 'first-20-days-exports' statistics: No signs of a global trade rebound
20. June 2019
USA: The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index fell sharply in June, but there are still no signs of an upcoming recession
Britain: Households continue to see solid support from real wages and a tight labour market, but the outlook is deteriorating
'China proxy': Taiwanese exports orders to mainland China plunge at the fastest rate since 2013