28. June 2023
Germany: An unpredictable future and political chaos in Berlin cause consumer sentiment to drop despite short-term tailwinds
27. June 2023
USA: The yield curve says recession, but the economy has not 'surrendered' yet. New home sales skyrocket in May - and consumer confidence bounces back
A historically right-wing shift in Germany and the rest of the EU will have consequences in all areas
26. June 2023
IFO survey: Germany faces a double-dip recession as geopolitics pulls the carpet under the economy. AfD sees more gain in the latest opinion poll. Also, a short note on Russia
23. June 2023
Britain: The renewed surge in consumer confidence indicates, to no small extent, that fiscal and monetary policymakers are not in control of the inflation situation
Japan: Core inflation hits the highest since the early 1980s - but BOJ does not believe inflation has gained a firm foothold
22. June 2023
France: Insee survey shows weak growth. The labour shortage problem remains the same as one year ago. Higher ECB policy rates for longer
21. June 2023
The Bank of England is slowly learning the lesson: More tightening is the only option in an economy running out of workers
20. June 2023
China's changing social landscape requires younger leadership better in touch with the people
Germany: Falling factory gates inflation is not a surprise. The ECB will stay the course of bringing policy rates and bond yields back to the 'old normal'
19. June 2023
USA-China rivalry: 'Two steps backwards, one step forward - followed by another two steps backwards'
16. June 2023
USA: UoM survey shows households benefiting from lower inflation and higher wages. Are there tentative signs of a new growth leg in Q4?
Eurozone: According to the ECB, wage pressure remains far too high for comfort. It will become worse in 2024 - with or without Artificial Intelligence
Japan: The central bank stays the course as if nothing has happened, triggering more yen weakness
15. June 2023
China: The economy has a significant growth problem - but the biggest problem is a stubborn political leadership
14. June 2023
USA: Factory gate inflation slows, but the Federal Reserve will stay the course until 2% has been reached
Germany: Wholesale inflation indicates a sharp decline in headline inflation in H2, but the labour market tells a different story
13. June 2023
USA: NFIB small business survey shows significant demand-side impact from monetary policy - but the labour market remains very tight and price pressure persists
The Chinese seek solutions from a clueless centre: 'Ten basis points interest rate cut'! Imbalances created in a semi-capitalist system now need to be solved in a Marxist state-capitalist system
Britain: Zero growth and a buoyant labour market say everything about the problems facing Europe
12. June 2023
Eurozone: Why today is different from 2008 and the 1970s. You ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to demographic headwinds
9. June 2023
China: The May inflation statistics indicate a very weak domestic demand side. The provinces seek solutions from a pressured leadership at the centre, but it has no clear answers
8. June 2023
Podcast: What does 'hundred years of humiliation of China' mean for Beijing and the rest of the world today? More than you think [language: Danish]
The Eurozone recorded a mild recession in Q1, but bond yields are still headed higher despite lower growth in the coming years
7. June 2023
China: The economy sees pressure from 'containment measures' and monetary tightening in the West. 'Self-reliance and a strong military' is Beijing's answer
6. June 2023
The lessons from Australia: Monetary normalisation is here to stay for an extended period despite declining inflation
Germany: The economy's fragile 'reconstruction' has just started, but the coalition government in Berlin is already in big trouble
5. June 2023
USA: ISM service survey shows falling growth, lower inflation and employment contraction
Turkey needs to do the opposite of Erdoganomics, now and not tomorrow. The unavoidable outcome will be a deep recession
2. June 2023
USA: The labour market remains buoyant despite slow growth. The Federal Reserve will continue on a path of monetary tightening
1. June 2023
USA: ISM manufacturing survey shows no signs of an upcoming recovery. The price index drops sharply
German workers lost within 18 months what they had gained since 2010. Now, they want compensation
31. May 2023
Germany: The inflation report continues to benefit from a mild winter. Is there too much self-complacency in a more dangerous world?
China is at a crossroads: Western corporate leaders with significant interests in China have many good reasons to be concerned about the future
30. May 2023
USA: Consumer survey shows tentative signs of weakness in the labour market but still elevated inflation expectations
Eurozone: A weak EU survey and ECB Monetary Development Report will boost market expectations of a more dovish ECB
Sweden: The lack of credibility in the previous decades hangs over the Swedish krona like a dark cloud
26. May 2023
USA: Inflation expectations will not go away in the current tight labour market environment
25. May 2023
France: The economy will soon come to a standstill
A short note on the US debt limit crisis: One cannot ignore the fact that the Republicans have a valid concern that the United States needs to address now
24. May 2023
Germany: IFO survey confirms the Eurozone struggle is far from over. It has only just begun
British CPI report: This is neither '2008' nor 'the 1970s' - the long-term task of central banks is far more challenging
23. May 2023
US new home sales report: No signs of 'economic contraction' will force the Federal Reserve to err on the hawkish side
A short note on the latest geopolitical events: The course of events has taken control away from politicians around the world
22. May 2023
'Virtual China visit' - Steffen Schiottz-Christensen from Chengdu, China. Register Now - 'First come, first served'
Japan: 'Back-sourcing' and increasing wages require significantly higher productivity, corporate spending and inflow of foreign workers
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows more disinflation and manufacturing contraction. The starting point in the next recovery phase is a tight labour market
17. May 2023
Japan: The economy surprises by showing strong growth in the first quarter of 2023, but labour shortages put a lid on the economy
A strong French labour market report is not good news but underscores an EU problem that will become significantly worse in the future
16. May 2023
Podcast interview with Anders Overvad, Think Tank Europa: The EU faces a fiscal and demographic hurricane [language: Danish]
China's economy stumbles, but Beijing has no intentions of supporting households. The main focus is SOEs and defence spending
15. May 2023
Eurozone: A mild winter is not enough to support manufacturing activity. Many European manufacturers face an existential crisis without subsidises
Germany: Falling wholesale price statistics indicate CPI inflation close to the 3%-4% range. Nonetheless, 'monetary normalisation' continues
12. May 2023
The European Union faces an unprecedented demographic and fiscal hurricane
11. May 2023
China: A benign inflation report underscores structural weakness in the economy. Will Beijing bail out distressed provinces?
10. May 2023
USA: Annual inflation is slowing, but still a long way to go with a different labour market than in 2008 - and higher 'normalised policy rates'
Italy: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has, so far, been a positive surprise. However, pragmatism will soon be tested as Italy faces unprecedented demographic headwinds
9. May 2023
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey underscores the decisive difference between 2008 and today
USA: CBO report shows soaring interest payment boosting the budget deficit. Investors need to get used to a new normal - the end of central banks sponsoring fiscal expansion
8. May 2023
Is Turkey still a democracy? If so, the upcoming election provides hope for the future and a sharp lira appreciation
Germany: Industrial orders and production plunge. Berlin moves to 'Plan B' - subsidised energy price of 6 cents. The slow demolition of the Single Market continues
USA April Employment Report: Secular forces will limit the rise in unemployment despite lower growth. Consequence: Elevated policy rates for longer
4. May 2023
USA: The financial market interpretation is 'pause' or 'easing', but the press conference shows Powell intends to err on the hawkish side
3. May 2023
USA: ISM service survey neither indicates an upcoming recession nor contraction in the labour market
France: Public sector imbalances deteriorate. The ECB will no longer sponsor fiscal irresponsibility, leading to higher real bond yields
The Federal Reserve is aware that a premature reversal of monetary policy will have the same catastrophic consequences as in 1980
2. May 2023
Not an easy task for the ECB: Another weak German retail sales report, more deposits outflow from Eurozone banks and falling 'lending standard'
Australia: The RBA's decision to raise policy rates is a reminder to the financial market of a long-term monetary normalisation process
1. May 2023
USA: The manufacturing sector still shows economic contraction but not enough to change the course of monetary policy
The Bank of Japan stays the course despite increasing core inflation. Reindustrialisation and rearmament will make the impact of adverse demographics even worse
China: Growth momentum slows as the impact of the reopening process fades. Beijing exploits geopolitics to make life even harder for foreign brands on the mainland
14. April 2023
No updates from April 17th to April 28th
Falling inflation is precisely what central banks and the bond market predicted. But it will be challenging to fulfil investors' next expectations leg in the Eurozone
13. April 2023
USA: The March producer price report shows what the ISM survey has predicted for some time. Investors forecast rate cuts, but a policy of 'monetary normalisation' will prevail
China's trade report is yet more evidence that Beijing is betting on one of the 'old tools' - exports. Beijing will launch more aggressive infrastructure spending
12. April 2023
USA: Falling energy prices pull headline inflation lower. Service price inflation slows but remains far too high
The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma - but its freedom of manoeuvring is limited
11. April 2023
China turns to the same policies that President Xi Jinping despised in the past. State-sponsored asset managers bail out state banks. Chinese manufacturers move production closer to the United States
'Mission Accomplished' for Beijing: President Macron's catastrophic kowtow in Beijing divides the EU even more, and the transatlantic alliance is now at risk
5. April 2023
USA: ISM service survey shows broad-based weakness - and significantly lower inflation pressure
The US labour market shows tentative signs of weakness - but this will not change the task of the Federal Reserve because the situation is different from 2008
4. April 2023
Beijing's efforts to internationalise the yuan are bearing fruit. The United States cannot overestimate the consequences of losing the dollar's status as a reserve currency
Eurozone: German trade report underscores that dependence on China keeps increasing - directly and indirectly
3. April 2023
USA: ISM manufacturing PMI index dropped deeper into the contraction zone - and Opec+ throws a spanner into the works
The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey shows a tightening labour market, stronger service sentiment and a weaker manufacturing sector. Still waiting for 'monetary normalisation'
31. March 2023
Germany: Retail sales in real terms plunge, as workers do not care about falling annual inflation. Workers need falling consumer prices or higher wages
President Xi Jinping is no longer trying to hide where China is headed. History shows that it pays to listen to authoritarian leaders
30. March 2023
EU survey shows lacklustre growth, no further improvement in CPI inflation, but falling factory gate price pressure - and a tight labour market
Eurozone: Preliminary reports show a sharp decline in the inflation rate. Nonetheless, the ECB does not base monetary policy on 'base effects'. Policy bias remains hawkish
29. March 2023
Sweden: A small bounce in business and consumer sentiment, but households' inflation assessment skyrockets to a new all-time high
Germany and France: Consumer surveys underscore the challenges facing the ECB. Wage increase calls are supported by demographic 'tailwind'
28. March 2023
Bank deposit outflows accelerated in the Eurozone in February. Commercial banks will be forced to raise deposit rates
France: Insee business survey shows lacklustre growth - and sticky prices. ECB says tightening will continue
27. March 2023
Eurozone: ECB's Monetary Development shows tightening conditions - but the ECB is expected to stay the course of 'overkilling' the economy
Germany: IFO survey significantly reduces the risk of 'recession' - so far
24. March 2023
Japan: The quality of being 'long the yen' - even without monetary tightening
23. March 2023
USA: The banking crisis and Wall Street investors distract the Federal Reserve, but Chairman Powell will stay the course
22. March 2023
Britain: Inflation will not go away as central banks face a totally different environment than in 2008
A short note on the 'frenemies meeting' in Moscow: Deglobalisation, RMB internationalisation and more geopolitical tensions confirmed
21. March 2023
US existing home sales jumped much-faster-than-expected in February - house prices dropped for the first time since 2012
The big difference between the '2008 bank run' and today: There is political and public support to rescue the banking system - but not for bailing out bank shares
20. March 2023
Germany: Factory gates inflation declines, but the absolute level of producer prices is still 50% higher than in 2019 - and the next inflation leg has already hit the shore
Podcast interview with foreign policy expert Camilla Tenna Nørup Sørensen: War or peace? Is China's President Xi Jinping a peacemaker or Moscow's ally? [language: Danish]
17. March 2023
Xi Jinping as peacemaker in Europe? Yes, if China benefits
Eurozone: Labour costs jumped in the last quarter of 2022. Q1 will be even stronger as the EU faces a secular labour supply problem
China cuts the reserve requirement ratio. The economy needs growth drivers. Xi Jinping could act as a peacemaker in Europe if China benefits. China and USA could benefit
16. March 2023
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey continues to show a weak manufacturing sector - but activity in the service sector is far more important
A short note on today's ECB Meeting: Monetary tightening is needed because today is not 2008
China: House prices 'bounce' back in February - but housing fundamentals are weak
Podcast interview with China expert Jorgen Delman: The West regrets its dependence on China - and Beijing bets on self-sufficiency and increases military spending. Decoupling will be expensive, very expensive - for China and the West [language: Danish]
15. March 2023
China: Economic statistics in January-February do not give rise to much optimism
14. March 2023
USA: Headline inflation moderates, but the biggest sector of the economy, services, sees the highest inflation rate since 1982
USA: NFIB small business survey shows a tightening labour market
By Invitation: China's new Parliament focuses on economic recovery, security, and confrontation with the US
13. March 2023
A short note on the Iran-Saudi deal, yuan internationalisation, SVP, federal debt refinancing, CHIPS, IRA, banking crisis and North Korea
USA: Fiscal balances deteriorate as the Federal Reserve creates headwinds - and will continue to do so. Washington will soon have to raise defence spending markedly
10. March 2023
USA: January labour market report was not a 'statistical error' - and employment growth continued in February. No signs of labour market weakness in the coming months
China: Monetary statistics still show no signs of a sustainable and self-propelled economic recovery. Does Xi Jinping care? Maybe!
'Virtual Company visit' - Albatros: Adventure tourism in China - and what is happening in China. Register Now - 'First come, first served'
9. March 2023
China: Falling inflation shows a weak and vulnerable recovery. The 'solidarity dilemma' facing Europe
8. March 2023
The Eurozone is facing the same tight liquidity situation as the US economy - but the ECB faces bigger problems
USA: The liquidity situation is now contracting at the fastest rate since the 'Volcker era' - and the labour market might still show strength for a little longer
7. March 2023
Germany: Industrial orders continue to bounce back. The difference between the financial crisis and today is the demographic headwind
A disappointing trade report and the Two-Sessions NPC meeting underscore that China faces significant headwinds
6. March 2023
China's Two-Sessions Meeting: 'Moderate' growth forecast of only 5% in 2023 despite the reopening process. Why? Beijing plans to use more money on geopolitical threats - to the disadvantage of private consumption
3. March 2023
USA: The service sector is becoming the economy's main inflation driver. This means more work for the Federal Reserve, although inflation pressure declined in today's survey
Eurozone: Factory gates headline prices decline in January, but core prices increase. The new reality will create price volatility in the future
Japan: Tokyo price subsidies do not disguise increasing inflationary pressures. The share of households 'seeing inflation higher than 5%' skyrockets
2. March 2023
Eurozone: Core inflation gains momentum in February as the ECB faces a larger-than-expected and structural inflation problem
Revisiting the 'monetary normalisation case': European real bond yields are still low based on ten-year inflation expectations
1. March 2023
USA: ISM manufacturing survey shows more contraction and higher inflation pressure
Germany: Headline price pressure fails to decline before the next inflation leg emerges. More tightening for longer will continue the normalisation process in the bond market
China: A sharp rebound in the official PMI indexes creates the foundation for higher commodity prices - and will contribute to a new global inflation leg in H2
28. February 2023
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey shows falling inflation expectations. The share of households 'seeing plentiful of jobs' jumped in February
Eurozone: The ECB will be forced to tighten more for longer as the monetary union faces structural inflation problems
27. February 2023
Podcast interview: Is the 'China adventure' over? [language: Danish]
Eurozone: A tight labour market makes households 'upbeat' - or 'less downbeat'. Stronger wage increases?
24. February 2023
USA: New home sales, tight labour market and sticky inflation will force policy rates higher for longer - and trigger a recession
Germany: Falling energy prices fail to boost spending plans as households see Berlin's foreign policy strategy in the last two decades collapse
Sweden: The economy showed only a weak rebound in sentiment in February. Service sector inflation expectations hit a new all-time high, according to NIER
Japan: Inflation increases to the highest since 1981. Toyota raises wages at the fastest pace in 26 years
22. February 2023
Germany: IFO survey shows an improving 'outlook' - or 'less downbeat' future. But 'China' could turn into Berlin's next nightmare
France: Insee business sentiment survey shows steady growth - but is Europe prepared for what comes after 'Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow'?
21. February 2023
Germany: ZEW survey continues to see improvement in investor sentiment - but the 'China arm' is now at risk
Eurozone consumer confidence recovers at a painfully slow pace as geopolitical tensions increase. The Munich Security Conference was the last straw
Podcast interview with Steen Jakobsen, CIO, Saxo Bank: How big is the risk of sustained high inflation? [language: Danish]
20. February 2023
Sweden: Core inflation continues to increase. Geopolitics will create a new leg in commodity price inflation. The Munich Security Conference underscores how bad the situation is
17. February 2023
France: No signs that inflation will peak anytime soon
Germany: Factory gates inflation will decline more slowly than market expectations. The next inflation leg will come from the 'demographic hurricane'
Podcast: Europe faces a 'demographic hurricane'. What are the implications?
16. February 2023
USA: Higher-than-expected factory gates inflation and a steep decline in manufacturing sentiment are a bad cocktail
China: House prices stabilised in January, but the underlying economic trend shows an 'economic mess' without reforms to unwind imbalances
15. February 2023
USA: US retail sales report indicates 'no landing' - which means 'higher policy rates for much longer'
Britain: Inflation declined in January and will continue to do so in February-March, but a tight labour market will create a new inflation leg
14. February 2023
USA: The consumer price report shows no signs that the Federal Reserve is in control of inflation. Service price inflation soars - and investors are far too complacent
USA: NFIB survey shows weak growth but very strong demand for workers. Job-openings bounce back
Japan: The economy shows moderate growth in Q4, as another 'Stanley Fischer disciple' takes charge of the Bank of Japan. The task remains the same as before - monetary reversal
French and British labour market reports show a very tight European labour market
13. February 2023
China: The recovery is too slow for comfort, as policy decisions in the past put a drag on the economy. More stimulus measures are in the pipeline
9. February 2023
There will be no updates on Friday, February 10
Germany: CPI report disappoints - but headline inflation will decline. Conversely, the ECB faces secular inflationary headwinds
Britain: The RICS survey shows more price pressure in the pipeline in the housing sector
8. February 2023
Eurozone: The demographic hurricane will make monetary policy challenging in 2023 and for years to come without sweeping labour market reforms
7. February 2023
Japanese workers are exposed to the highest cash earnings increase since 1997. Nonetheless, Tokyo opts for the second-most dovish candidate to replace Kuroda
Outlook 2023 - 'step by step'
6. February 2023
Germany: Big-item orders boost industrial orders in December. The case for a tight monetary policy remains strong in the Eurozone
3. February 2023
USA: A strong rebound in the ISM service survey makes the labour market report more credible
USA: The labour market showing no signs of weakness is not what the Federal Reserve aims for. More tightening is coming
Eurozone: Factory gates inflation slows, but the risk of a 'second inflation leg' further down the road is building
A summary in English: Podcast interview with retired Brigadier General Carsten Rasmussen
The foundation for a 'second leg of inflation' is building
2. February 2023
Podcast interview with former Brigadier General Carsten Rasmussen: Will the EU ever be able to defend itself against the military threat from Russia? Is the threat acute when the Danish government does not plan to reach the 2% target before 2030? [Language: Danish]
Spain's labour market underscores the secular problem facing the European Union. Also, the EU Commission is at the beginning of 'dismantling' the Single Market for goods and services
Must-read article about China
1. February 2023
USA: ISM survey shows slower manufacturing activity - but the JOLTS survey shows an even tighter labour market. The financial market is too optimistic when it comes to a monetary U-turn
Eurozone: Headline inflation drops, core inflation stays elevated, and the labour market remains very tight. A recipe for more tightening
USA: What kind of employment situation is the Federal Reserve facing? A very tight labour market - and this will lead to elevated wage inflation in the foreseeable future
31. January 2023
USA: The Employment Cost Index will not change the direction of monetary policy. Wages are still increasing at the fastest since 1984
The Eurozone escaped recession in Q4 due to high winter temperatures - but the ECB now has even more tightening to do
China: PMI survey shows relief rather than optimism. 'Xi going to Moscow' will undermine efforts to improve relations with the EU - unless Putin cannot distinguish between dreams and reality
30. January 2023
Eurozone: A strong rebound in economic sentiment requires a more robust response from the ECB - Sell the European stock market
EU: Monetary policymakers are walking a delicate balancing act but are forced to tighten more for longer. Spain's core inflation jumped in January, Sweden's economy shrank in Q4
27. January 2023
USA: New home sales report keeps the risk of a recession elevated - but the Federal Reserve is more focused on the risk of 'premature easing'
Japan: Inflation is 'transitory for longer'. The Bank of Japan needs an emergency exit in order not to lose face
26. January 2023
USA: The underlying details show a weak Q4 GDP report. The Federal Reserve will stay the course but is walking a delicate balancing act as the liquidity situation is very tight
Sweden: The Riksbank has made the bed; now, the economy must lie on it - NIER survey
South Korea: The economy shrank in Q4 - and the outlook is not improving. The Bank of Korea will pause, but the bias remains tightening
25. January 2023
Germany: IFO expectations index continues to bounce back, as a mild winter saves the economy - and not least the manufacturing sector
24. January 2023
Britain: CBI survey shows falling factory gates inflation and orders - but business optimism and hiring plans bounce back
France: Insee business sentiment survey indicates stable growth in the first quarter of 2023 - but the next inflation leg could be just around the corner
Germany: Falling energy prices boost consumer sentiment but fail to raise household spending. ECB faces a problematic inflation outlook
23. January 2023
Eurozone: Consumer confidence slowly bounces back from an all-time low as households see compensation for energy inflation that never emerged
22. January 2023
Podcast: China's reopening - 'On the ground insights' from a foreigner in Shanghai
20. January 2023
Germany: Factory gates inflation slows, leading to even lower consumer price inflation. Nonetheless, the ECB stays the course of monetary normalisation
19. January 2023
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows tentative signs of a 'possible' rock bottom in the manufacturing sector in March or April. Goods price deflation remains strong
Britain: The RICS survey shows a steep decline in house prices in an environment of elevated conventional inflation. The scope for a 'soft landing' is far too narrow for central banks to succeed
18. January 2023
USA: Factory gates inflation will prevail in the first few months of 2023, but service price inflation will stay elevated in H2
Japan: 'The last man is still standing' - but for how long?
Podcast: China after COVID - What does Beijing want - and what does it mean for us? [language: Danish]
17. January 2023
Britain: A tight labour market creates the foundation for higher policy rates. Low energy prices make leeway for a rebound in consumer sentiment
China: A 'miracle' has happened! The economy did not contract in Q4 despite a collapsing housing market and consumer sentiment. Really?
16. January 2023
Japan: Producer price inflation hits the highest since 1980, as the Bank of Japan's policy is finally coming to an end
China: Falling house prices and a weak economy underscore why Beijing suddenly shows a 'friendly face' to the rest of the world - but for how long?
13. January 2023
USA: Consumer sentiment bounces back as short-term inflation expectations decline. This will support the narrative of a 'soft landing', although this will prove to be no more than a false dawn
EU: Sweden's inflation rate jumps to the highest since 1991. Short-term tailwinds will be followed by headwinds from Q2 and beyond because European central banks will stay the course
12. January 2023
USA: Headline inflation declines due to goods price deflation - but service price inflation jumps, which is terrible news
China: Benign inflation in December, but Beijing U-turns will make the country inflationary in 2023. Xi Jinping is under heavy political pressure after one failed policy after another
11. January 2023
USA: NFIB small business survey shows slower growth and falling inflation. The Federal Reserve narrative now competes with the 'soft landing theme'
9. January 2023
There will be no updates on January 10
Eurozone: The labour market remains very tight. The ECB will stay the course, but a 'soft US landing scenario' will gain the upper hand in the financial in the short run
6. January 2023
USA: ISM service survey provides a 'growth shock' in December - although this is in line with the best early-leading indicators
USA: Robust employment growth and moderate wage increases in December - but the Federal Reserve stays the course with the unemployment rate close to a record low
Eurozone: EU survey shows a steep decline in households' inflation expectations - and more optimism regarding the labour market. 'Good' news - but not for the ECB - and core inflation jumps in December
Germany: Industrial orders plunged in November due to falling foreign demand. Tentative signs of a 'local bottom' in Q2, but two main factors will create headwinds in 2023
5. January 2023
USA: ADP Employment Report shows the economic slowdown is too insignificant to increase unemployment - meaning higher policy rates for longer
Japan: Consumer confidence increases marginally, but a record 64% of households see inflation above 5%. BOJ tightening is coming sooner rather than later
4. January 2023
USA: ISM survey shows price deflation prevails in the manufacturing sector - but the Jolts survey shows a strong labour market
A short note on Germany's import prices report: A steep decline in headline inflation in Q1 will be reinforced by falling energy prices
3. January 2023
Germany: Inflation declines sharply in December as 'demand destruction' and 'positive climate change' pull energy prices lower
Eurozone: More signs of a too tight labour market for comfort from ECB's perspective
Euro-zone inflation will fall significantly in the short run, but the 'monetary normalisation 'process will continue. The Bank of Japan's U-turn poses a significant risk to EU and US bonds
2. January 2023
China: First, the zero-policy Omicron strategy killed the economy. Now, Beijing's new Omicron narrative triggers a clumsy reopening of the economy. Consequence: A sharp decline in the PMI indexes
20. December 2022
The last day for updates is on December 20. Insightview will be back on January 3, 2023
Japan: The Japanese central bank is now caught in its own spin and a monetary policy that has only benefited the few. The U-turn will have significant global ramifications
Podcast interview: What will happen in 2023?
19. December 2022
Germany: IFO survey continues to bounce back - but the economy still faces more headwinds than tailwinds in 2023
16. December 2022
Eurozone: The consequences of the ECB transforming into the 'Bundesbank' will have a significant impact. How much will bond yields increase in the Eurozone?
15. December 2022
ECB President Lagarde's handling of market expectations poses a considerable risk to financial market stability
China: The downbeat November statistics underscore why 'fighting Covid' is dangerous for Xi Jinping, the Communist Party and the economy - and in that order
14. December 2022
Britain: A long-overdue decline in inflation will not change the Bank of England's policy towards more tightening
Insights from China: Xi Jinping policy 'is like throwing a dice'
13. December 2022
USA: Goods prices pull inflation lower while service inflation increases. The labour market is now more than ever the critical factor for future monetary policy
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey shows tentative signs of upcoming labour market weakness, but 'price plans' bounce back
Australia: Business sentiment slows, and capex in the mining sector remains weak despite strong secular 'tailwinds' for commodities
12. December 2022
China: Is Beijing on the road towards launching aggressive stimulus measures?
The daily weather forecast is now the most critical factor for the European economy. This is not a healthy foundation for the corporate sector in the long run
11. December 2022
Podcast: Another postcard from Chengdu - 'All of a sudden, Covid is no longer dangerous'
9. December 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation slows - but the next leg up, service inflation, may gain the upper hand in February
China: Does Beijing's U-turn mean more 'change of mind' in the pipeline?
8. December 2022
The European housing market: The decline in house prices accelerates - and central banks are not in a position to come to the rescue
7. December 2022
China: The opening-up measures aim to put a lid on the 'pressure from the mob' - and reduce the risk of a colour revolution
6. December 2022
Germany: 'Big items' boosts industrial orders in October, but the economy faces unprecedented headwinds in 2023
5. December 2022
USA: ISM service survey underscores that the Federal Reserve has plenty of work to do in the first half of 2023. 'Mind the gap!'
2. December 2022
USA: The November employment report underscores that the risk of second-round inflation will not disappear without a significant increase in unemployment
Germany: A sharp decline in import and producer prices will continue adding downward pressure on consumer price inflation to the range of 6% to 7% - but the same factors will add upward pressure from February
1. December 2022
USA: ISM manufacturing index declines into the 'contraction zone' - as predicted by the Philadelphia Fed survey for some time now
Germany: Retail sales plunged in October despite falling energy prices - and now energy prices are again on the rise, triggering 'postponed price increases'
Japan: Consumer confidence drops as households' inflation expectations hit a new all-time high. The labour market tightens markedly
30. November 2022
Eurozone: Headline inflation finally declines as expected, but core inflation increases - and now winter is coming
China: PMI survey shows Beijing is caught between a rock and a hard place - due to self-inflicted problems. Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin has died
29. November 2022
Eurozone: EU Commission survey shows falling inflation pressure - and improving economic sentiment - but a fragile energy infrastructure will create inflation pressure for years to come
Podcast interview with China expert Joergen Delman: Is there more than just Covid that has triggered the protests in China?
Sweden: The NIER survey heralds economic contraction and elevated inflation pressure for longer - despite falling prices in the coming months
28. November 2022
Eurozone: Monetary aggregates show a slowing economy - and a tighter liquidity situation. Investors will demand positive real bond yields as the ECB is no longer the buyer of last resort
The protests in China: The generational clash - or the conflict between the 'old-fashioned' Communist Party on the one side and the well-educated middle class and the young generation on the other side
25. November 2022
Japan: Tokyo inflation hits the highest since 1982 - and wage pressure is rising. Yen appreciation could be one of the most significant events in 2023
Eurozone: French and German consumer confidence improves, supported by compensation for 'energy inflation that disappeared'. Schnabel sees this as a good reason for the ECB to act
A short note on China's health and economic crises: The world needs to be prepared for a new wave of supply disruption in 2023
24. November 2022
Germany: The IFO headline index bounces back as energy prices plunge - at least until a week ago. Supply chain problems remain high, according to the IFO Institute
France: Insee business sentiment surveys show only a moderate growth decline - but increasing supply problems. Factory prices jump as energy prices bounce back from the rock bottom
23. November 2022
USA: New home sales statistics keep the 'mild recession' scenario alive - but also the monetary 'normalisation process'
Eurozone: Consumer confidence bounces back as households are compensated for energy inflation that 'disappeared'. It makes the 'normalisation process' easier for the ECB
A short note on China facing an unprecedented health crisis - and recession
22. November 2022
USA: The probability of a more profound recession is on the rise because the Federal Reserve is forced to err on the hawkish side
21. November 2022
China: Taiwan's export orders report shows a fragile mainland China economy. China facing the same Covid outbreak as Europe did in the last quarter of 2021 will create new global supply chain problems - and dilemma for Beijing
Germany: Factory gates inflation declines sharply in October - three months after energy prices peaked in August
18. November 2022
ECB: Everyone is on board - also President Lagarde. Fighting inflation is now a priority - but this will make significant inroads into 'excess liquidity' - and economic activity
Japan: Inflation hits the highest since 1991. The central bank maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy until it is no longer the case
17. November 2022
USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey underscores what an inverted yield curve also concludes: recession. But the Federal Reserve has more tightening to do
The Eurozone is on the same fiscal path as former Prime Minister Truss - and with no leader who can look after the interests of the union
Australia: A few rate hikes are not enough to slow growth and inflation. The unemployment rate hits an all-time low
16. November 2022
China: House prices continue lower. Beijing will soon discover that there is no easy way towards socialism without causing collateral damage
15. November 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation declines - precisely as outlined by the best forward-looking inflation indicators - but the Federal Reserve will not rest before inflation is below 3%
Britain: Strong wage gain will keep the Bank of England on a path of monetary tightening. This, and fiscal tightening, will reduce inflation expectations markedly in 2023
Germany: Inflation will decline significantly, but bond yields are headed higher
China: The October statistics disappoint - but are still surprisingly robust, considering contracting tax revenues and historically low consumer confidence
11. November 2022
USA: Consumer confidence declines sharply. Inflation expectations increase. Soon, households' net worth will decline
Britain: The first step into recession was taken in Q3, but the Bank of England will still be forced to tighten monetary policy
Eurozone: ECB policymakers are finally awake - and they have turned hawkish. The 'Ukraine excuse' is no longer used by the central bank
10. November 2022
A short note on the US October inflation report: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will not make the 1980-mistake made by Paul Volcker
USA: The October consumer price report undershoots elevated inflation expectations - to the surprise of the financial market
China: Monetary aggregates statistics show no signs of aggressive stimulus measures from Beijing
Italy: The economic situation 'appears stable', but this will not last, as Rome has no room for manoeuvring. The consumer confidence index plunges to the lowest since 2013 due to soaring inflation
Britain: The RICS survey is a harbinger of a steep price decline in house prices in 2023, which looks increasingly like a global phenomenon
9. November 2022
US midterm elections appear not to be the expected landslide victory for the Republicans. Donald Trump slowly becomes a liability
China: Factory gates deflation shows a weak economy. A challenge to hide 'recession' with the biggest sector contracting and consumer confidence at a record low
8. November 2022
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey provides no comfort to the Federal Reserve - wage pressure gains momentum
Podcast interview with a 'China insider', Mathias Boyer: Xi Jinping aims for centralisation, less urbanisation, and a socialist economy. What are the implications for growth? Must listen
7. November 2022
China: The October trade report shows the weakest export performance since May 2020, as Beijing opts for 'controlling risks' to the people rather than growth. Germany's China dependency hits a new high
4. November 2022
USA: The October employment report keeps the Federal Reserve on a path of more tightening - and, therefore, more global liquidity tightening
Eurozone: The Eurozone does not have the same inflation problem as the United States - but fiscal policymakers could make the problem worse
Germany: Industrial orders declined sharply in September, with more weakness coming. Annalena Baerbock warns Scholz about China
3. November 2022
USA: ISM service survey indicates slower growth, but inflation pressure remains elevated
USA: The Federal Reserve waited too long - and now it has to do too much. The ECB has good reasons to worry
2. November 2022
Has the Bank of Japan started 'undeclared' monetary tightening?
Eurozone: Policymakers need not worry about the labour shortage problem. A 'solution' is around the corner
Germany: Chancellor Scholz is 'forced' to travel to Beijing to kowtow to the 'Emperor', as Germany's manufacturing sector faces an existential crisis
1. November 2022
USA: ISM manufacturing survey underscores that falling inflation is in the pipeline, but the labour market remains far too tight
Britain: House prices declined in October at the fastest monthly pace since 2010 as buyers face headwinds from all directions
Germany: Wholesales and import prices herald a steep decline in annual consumer price inflation in the coming months - but the ECB will stay the course for good reasons
31. October 2022
Eurozone: The economy barely expands in Q3, as inflation hits a new all-time high. Fiscal policymakers will make ECB tightening much easier
China: Xi Jinping's print is evident in the official October PMI survey. US CHIPS Act will create severe headwinds. More Covid chaos hits Apple production
28. October 2022
Eurozone: EU Commission survey shows no rebound despite falling energy prices since August. ECB's task is far from done
Japan: Tokyo consumer price inflation hits the highest since 1991. Households' inflation expectations hit an all-time high
A short note on China: Going from 'bad' to 'worse'
USA: The Q3 GDP report will not change the stance of the Federal Reserve. Unemployment needs to increase more profoundly. The liquidity situation has tightened markedly
Eurozone: The ECB is finally 'data dependent'. The bank raises policy rates by 75 basis points
27. October 2022
Sweden: NIER Economic Tendency Survey shows accelerating downturn - weakness across the board
South Korea feels the heat from slowing global growth. Global slowdown, adverse demographics, and geopolitics will create headwinds in 2023
26. October 2022
ECB lending report shows signs of 'emergency borrowing'. The 'credit standard' for loan approval is deteriorating
China: Fiscal statistics paint a gloomy economic situation. Xi Jinping will keep his course with ideology as the main priority at the expense of the economy
25. October 2022
USA: Inflation dents consumer confidence - Conference Board. Philadelphia Fed survey shows strong service price inflation
Germany: IFO survey shows no decisive signs of a rebound in corporate sentiment despite falling energy prices. Olaf Scholz plays with fire by visiting Beijing
24. October 2022
China's Q3 GDP data are history - The country is now officially ruled by an authoritarian leader
By Invitation: Xi Jinping's moment of glory - winner takes all
21. October 2022
Britain: Consumers spend more for less. The 'Truss catastrophe' was only partly to blame for a sharp sell-off in the gilt market - but it is a lesson to the Labour party
20. October 2022
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey still heralds manufacturing recession
France: Business sentiment is steady, but underlying details show more than just an energy supply problem
Germany: No relief from the factory gates. The bond market shows that inflation is not the biggest problem. The paradigm shift is now the main headwind
19. October 2022
USA: The impact of higher mortgage rates hits the housing market across the board
Eurozone: How much could, potentially, nominal bond yields increase if the ECB is no longer there as a buyer of last resort?
Britain: Inflation stays at an elevated level. EU member states are making the same mistake as London before Truss made a U-turn
18. October 2022
USA: The manufacturing sector shows more resilience than in Europe. Conversely, the Federal Reserve will have to do more tightening
Germany's ZEW survey: Falling energy prices and households compensated for 'high energy prices' will keep the ECB on track towards significant monetary tightening
17. October 2022
China: History shows that it pays to listen to what authoritarian leaders say they will do in the future
USA: Empire States survey and UoM consumer sentiment survey show sticky inflation. The Federal Reserve remains on a firm path of tightening
14. October 2022
Britain: Kwasi Kwarteng exit shows the power of bond investors is strong without the central bank as the buyer of last resort - but real government bond yields are still too low
Germany: Berlin is doing nothing to reduce inflation pressure - and an incapable AfD leadership benefits from this
China: The details in the September inflation report underscore why yesterday's protest in Beijing could be more than just a rare social incident. Is this the top of an iceberg of dissatisfaction?
13. October 2022
USA: Sticky prices will force the Federal Reserve to stay the course for many months - and going into 2023
12. October 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation stays elevated, but 'core intermediate goods inflation' declines. The Federal Reserve remains on a path of tightening
Britain: The bumpy road away from quantitative easing leaves no room for manoeuvring. The Eurozone cannot afford to make the same mistakes
What will happen at the CCP party congress?
South Korea: The Bank of Korea raises policy rates by 0.5% to 3%. The economy faces multiple threats
11. October 2022
USA: NFIB small business survey shows that the Federal Reserve is on track but still has a long way to go
Japan: The Bank of Japan, like the ECB, has good reasons to worry about a monetary u-turn - but a weak yen has not moved exports higher since Abenomics was launched
10. October 2022
China: The economy could be headed towards its first recession
7. October 2022
USA: A robust employment report keeps the Federal Reserve on track towards more monetary tightening
Germany: Retail sales in volume terms drop sharply in August. The impact of falling energy prices is replaced by the fear of war in Europe
6. October 2022
Did Saudi Arabia just make a 'Putin mistake'?
Eurozone: Fiscal stimulus measures + monetary tightening = higher real bond yields
Germany: 'Big items' hit industrial orders in August. The outlook is weak, and Berlin's low-quality fiscal stimulus measures could create more pain in the bond market
5. October 2022
USA: The ISM service survey supports the Federal Reserve's stance of more monetary tightening. Unemployment is far too low, according to the central bank
Podcast interview with Green Power Denmark: Energy price settings, price differences in the European electricity market - and the risk of deindustrialisation [language: Danish]
Germany: At first glance, the export sector performs well but for the wrong reasons. The outlook for 2023 has deteriorated
USA: The JOLTS survey shows more signs of upcoming labour market weakness in 2023, but the Federal Reserve will stay the course
4. October 2022
Eurozone: Soaring energy prices propel PPI inflation to a new record high. Energy instability erodes Europe as a manufacturing hub - with or without a cold winter
Eurozone: Fiscal stimulus measures and monetary tightening mean higher real bond yields - but yield curve steepening shows investors are having 'second thoughts' about ECB's commitment
3. October 2022
USA: ISM manufacturing sentiment shows significant weakness - but also slowing inflation pressure at the factory gates
Turkey: Erdogan's unorthodox monetary policy may soon lead to hyperinflation
Japan: The economy performs better than the European economy, but the labour market is tight - and getting tighter
30. September 2022
EU: The Y-shaped stock market, 'war economy' - and the public sector on a spending spree with no buyer of last resort
China: PMI surveys show a weak economy. 'Common prosperity' is back on the agenda, which does not necessarily bode well for the private sector
29. September 2022
Germany: Inflation hitting the highest since 1951 will have ramifications for a vulnerable political system. A too fragile energy infrastructure could trigger deindustrialisation
Eurozone survey heralds recession, inflation higher for longer: There will be 'no labour shortage problem in 2023'. Households' unemployment expectations jumped sharply in September
28. September 2022
The Bank of England, on an ice floe, is panicking after years of manipulating the bond market. The ECB could soon be in the same situation
Sweden: NIER survey shows no signs of relief. The opposite is the case. Consumer confidence hits a new record-low
Germany: Households have neither confidence in the future nor the European Central Bank. 'Fragmentation' is no longer the main problem
27. September 2022
USA: A better-than-expected New Home Sales report underscores that the Federal Reserve has much more tightening to do - but households' inflation expectations decline
Eurozone: Corporate lending jumps as loan demand declines. The liquidity situation tightens significantly
26. September 2022
Podcast interview: What will happen if Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine? Three experts answer [Language: Danish]
Germany: IFO survey is now a harbinger of an 8% economic contraction. There is weakness across the board
23. September 2022
British and Eurozone consumer confidence indexes drop again sharply to new record lows, as policymakers underestimate headwinds headed towards households
22. September 2022
Eurozone: Belgian and Dutch consumer confidence indexes drop to a new record low as households and companies face unprecedented headwinds
The Swiss and other central banks raising policy rates will force the Bank of Japan and a reluctant ECB to act. This will trigger yen repatriation
Federal Reserve: 'There is no easy way to get inflation down'. Policy rates to stay higher for longer
21. September 2022
USA: Existing home prices are headed significantly lower in 2023
How much will bond yields increase now as the 'buyers of last resort' made a U-turn?
Recommendation: Buying the yen and selling the euro
20. September 2022
The Riksbank and the ECB proved not to be up to the task. They reacted too late to an obvious risk. Consequently, their economies will now plunge into a deep recession
Germany: Factory gates inflation soared in August, but core inflation declined. A massive increase in unemployment is now in the pipeline
Japan: Headline inflation hits 3% - and higher inflation is in the pipeline. The Bank of Japan reversing monetary policy will have global ramifications
19. September 2022
USA: The NAHB index continues to see trouble in the housing market. The Federal Reserve will stay the course until the unemployment rate moves to a 'safe distance' from NAIRU
China: The downturn in the housing market continues - prices, sales and construction activity decline
15. September 2022
There will be no updates on September 16
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows no signs of a manufacturing rebound, but price pressure continues to decline caused by 'demand destruction'
French households are exposed to low inflation at the expense of energy self-sufficient countries with free market prices. Berlin and Paris showing no signs of 'energy solidarity' could backfire when winter arrives
China: Guangzhou allowing 20% home price cuts will have huge ramifications. Households' only 'safe investment' is now gone
14. September 2022
USA: Factory gate inflation slows due to falling commodity prices, but the next inflation leg will come from a tight labour market
The consequence of ignoring inflation in the first place will lead to a steep increase in US and European unemployment in 2023. China shows the same symptoms
Britain: Inflation statistics show tentative signs of having peaked, but the Bank of England has significantly more tightening in the pipeline. European liquidity tightening gains momentum
13. September 2022
USA: A disappointing August CPI report underscores the Federal Reserve is on a path of significant tightening. A tight labour market will create the next inflation leg
Germany: The ZEW survey closes the gap with the IFO survey. Berlin, the weakest link in Europe's energy infrastructure, needs to show more humility
Lower inflation, Russia's 'defeat'. Too good to be true? Maybe, but central banks will stay the course of monetary tightening - and more European companies may vote with their feet
12. September 2022
The far-right Brothers of Italy party knows the path toward power is through the centre, showing its true colours after the election
Europe: So far, the biggest surprise is the slow decline in the economy
9. September 2022
China: Monetary statistics still show a sluggish economy - but Chinese exporters now focus on European manufacturers under siege
China: No signs of inflation still leave room for more easing - but Beijing will not make the same 'mistake' as in 2008
8. September 2022
Eurozone: The ECB finally sees the writing on the wall, but this comes too late to support the euro. More tightening in the pipeline despite Lagarde trying to dilute today's decision during the press conference
Britain: A steep decline in house prices is now in the pipeline, according to RICS. This will hit all of Europe as households are exposed to unprecedented purchasing power erosion - and monetary tightening
Podcast interview with Jens Eskelund, Member of the Executive Committee of the European Chamber in China: Is the economic situation in China worse today than in 2008?
7. September 2022
China: The 'only' growth driver disappoints as the world economy slows. Beijing will not launch '2008-like stimulus measures'
6. September 2022
USA: The ISM service survey shows more tailwinds as inflation pressure declines and employment turns positive again but also supports the Federal Reserve staying the course
Australia: The RBA raises policy rates to the highest since 2015. More in the pipeline, but the Aussie will see little support from this
Germany: Industrial orders continue to decline - and more is coming with or without a mild winter
5. September 2022
Podcast interview with Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, PIIE and German Marshall Fund: China's economic model no longer works
2. September 2022
USA: A strong employment report in August. Is soaring inflation forcing more workers to re-enter the labour force?
Euro-zone: Factory gates inflation surprises again the market consensus. There is little room for significantly higher wages, as many European companies will soon find themselves in an existential crisis without a steep decline in energy prices
Podcast interview: 'A postcard from Chengdu in China' - Must Listen
