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2. September 2019
Sweden: Manufacturing business sentiment stabilises in August. A change in the policy mix makes the Swedish currency look 'slightly more attractive'
Germany: State elections in Brandenburg and Sachsen create 'relief' in Berlin despite skyrocketing support to AfD. The reaction is yet another policy-mistake made by Berlin
China's official manufacturing PMI index stays in the contraction zone. The 'real picture' is worse than reflected by the 'leading' PMI surveys
30. August 2019
Spain: Retail sales jump in July. The growth outlook improves markedly, according to the leading business surveys
Switzerland: Unchanged KOF headline index still attaches a high probability to the outcome of 'recession'
Japan: Industrial output bounces back, but retail sales plunge. Overall outlook deteriorates rapidly, according to the best forward-looking surveys
29. August 2019
EU Commission survey surprises to the upside, but the labour market is deteriorating, according to Euro-zone households, not least in Germany 
Japan: Consumer confidence declines to the lowest level since April 2015; the share of households expecting inflation above 2 per cent increases to a new high
28. August 2019
Euro-zone: Monetary aggregates expand at a much faster rate than expected, but available liquidity is not used to the same extent
Italy: The economy moves deeper into the 'recession zone'. A PD-M5S government coalition will offer Salvini a huge election victory in 2020
USA: Regional Fed surveys show companies are having second thoughts about investment plans
27. August 2019
USA: Conference Board's consumer confidence index jumps in August - the share of respondents seeing plentiful-of-jobs hits the highest level since September 2000
France: Upbeat business and consumer sentiment shows 'decoupling' from the 'weakest link', Germany, at least for the time being
Germany: Q2 GDP details show significant growth contraction from net-exports and 'positive' contribution from higher inventories
26. August 2019
USA: Durable goods orders report fails to show the 'expected' benefit of President Trump's corporate tax cuts
A short note on the Chinese currency: Yuan weakness 'despite' and not 'because of' Beijing
Germany: IFO survey heralds a deep recession in the second half of 2019 or going into 2020. Fiscal stimulus measures will come but far too slowly as Merkel remains 'Chancellor of inaction'
23. August 2019
USA: Robust July new home sales report after June number was revised up, but Federal Reserve' bias remains towards monetary easing
22. August 2019
Britain: CBI retailer sentiment index plunges to the lowest level since 2008; 'Boris Johnson effect' remains highly visible in the latest opinion poll
21. August 2019
USA: A robust housing market remains the 'missing factor' in the forecast of recession in 2020 as external shocks continue to support domestic demand
Aggressive fiscal stimulus measures would be the solution to everything 'if' the perverse argument of 'demography' is really the main factor behind negative bond yields - but it is not!
A short note on a weak 'China proxy' - 'The first-20-days' South Korean trade report continues to show weakness
20. August 2019
Taiwan: 'Mainland proxy' shows tentative signs that the 'downturn' might no longer be accelerating
Germany: Benign inflation and 'recession' make leeway for fiscal and monetary stimulus measures
19. August 2019
Japan: Sentiment plunges across the board, according to the Reuters Tankan survey
16. August 2019
USA: A sharp decline in consumer sentiment should give rise to some concern at the Federal Reserve, but households are still exposed to more tailwinds than headwinds
USA: A mixed housing market report, but falling mortgage rates will boost future activity. Skyrocketing refinancing supports existing homeowners
Turkey: Industrial output drops sharply. President Erdogan 'readjusts' his views to make new friends in Beijing
15. August 2019
USA: Manufacturing output contracts in July; more to come in the coming months but there are no signs yet of a 'collapse'
USA: Surprisingly strong manufacturing Philadelphia Fed survey. Retail sales jump as households benefit from low inflation, interest rates and a strong labour market
A short note on a flat US yield curve: A few missing factors are still needed to forecast a 'serious economic downturn'
China's highly regulated house prices see support from tier-2 and tier-3 cities, but oversupply is on the rise 
14. August 2019
Euro-zone Q2 GDP report: Germany and Italy are the two weakest links. Chancellor Merkel is slowly recognising the need for fiscal stimulus measures
Britain: Elevated price and wage inflation makes monetary policy a delicate balancing act for the Bank of England as 'recession' in 2020 is highly likely
Japan: Strong hard data, but soft data show a sharp deterioration in the growth outlook
China: Economic activity slowed significantly in July, but Beijing gets help from Trump blinking when the going gets tough
13. August 2019
USA: Small business sentiment bounces back and stays at an elevated level. Labour shortage hits an all-time high
Germany: ZEW index plunges in August to the lowest level since 2011 as the risk of recession increases dramatically
USA: Budget deficit soars despite robust nominal GDP growth in 2019 and 2018. 'Necessary' boost in defence spending will further inflate the deficit
12. August 2019
China: Monetary statistics still show no signs of panicking policy-makers. Beijing is too confident about the future
Germany: The economy slows rapidly ahead of crucial state elections in East Germany. Berlin is poised to launch aggressive fiscal stimulus measures
Podcast interview with Philip Christian Ulrich, Kongressen.com, about why 'America First' is here to stay - with or without the re-election of President Trump
A summary of the last two turbulent weeks of political and economic events
27. July 2019
There will be no updates from July 29 to August 9 due to vacation
26. July 2019
USA: Robust Q2 GDP report was stronger than outlined by the headline number. Real domestic demand jumped in Q2
Italy is going nowhere after Rome chose the line of least resistance. 'Fools' are forced to finance Rome
A short note on the after-effect of the IFO survey: 'Germany Not in Crisis Nor Mulling Stimulus'
25. July 2019
USA: The Federal Reserve has already made its decision with or without a better-than-expected durable goods orders report
South Korea: The economy is much weaker than reflected by the headline growth number in the Q2 GDP report
Spain: The unemployment rate hits the lowest level since 2008. Political mess is no problem as long as politicians do not take any decisions
Germany: IFO expectations index drops to the lowest level since July 2009. Service sector moves into a 'downswing'
24. July 2019
Euro-zone: ECB can only bet on a weaker euro. The current high real ten-year bond yield differential supports such a strategy
What the UN 2019 Population Projection says about the future - Presentation
France: Manufacturing and service sentiment surveys herald moderately slower growth. President Macron's next fight is with the greens trying to conquer the political centre
23. July 2019
USA: Existing home sales disappoint, but the monetary environment remains supportive
Britain: Manufacturing sentiment plunges to the lowest level since April 2010
22. July 2019
Taiwan: Weak export orders report is more evidence of a weak mainland economy
19. July 2019
USA: University of Michigan consumer survey continues to show upbeat households as they see no significant headwinds - and definitely not monetary headwind
Germany: Inflation at the factory gates falls sharply in June despite increasing labour costs
18. July 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey raises doubt about the credibility of the Federal Reserve. The short and long-term indicators jump. Employment index hits an all-time high
South Korea finally cuts policy rates as the country faces headwinds from all directions
Japan: Trade statistics show no signs of a rebound. Inventories are on the rise
17. July 2019
USA: Housing starts report disappoints in June, but the outlook remains upbeat according to the latest homebuilder survey
16. July 2019
USA: Very strong retail sales report discredits Fed Chairman Powell. This could turn into a significant policy mistake if manufacturing sentiment were to bounce back as well 
ZEW survey shows growing concern among investors regarding the extent of headwinds facing the German economy
Britain: The first profound impact of Brexit hits the shore, according to the June labour market report. The risk of recession in 2020 is on the rise
Brussels missed an opportunity to become a global player matching its size
15. July 2019
USA: Empire State manufacturing index bounces back in July after Fed Chairman Powell was 'bullied' into easing monetary policy
China: House price inflation slows as policymakers maintain tightening measures in the housing market
Chinese growth declined in the second quarter to the lowest level since the early 1990s
12. July 2019
USA: Producer price inflation remains benign despite import tariffs
China: Monetary statistics show no signs yet of aggressive easing measures
China: The June trade report pictures a weak economy. Trump is not rewarded by the Chinese to the extent 'promised by Beijing'
11. July 2019
USA: Core inflation increases as Fed Chairman Powell talks about a rate cut despite a soaring fiscal deficit
Turkey records a minor current account surplus as domestic demand has collapsed. The central bank governor is fired and close allies of President Erdogan are leaving the AK Party
10. July 2019
The French economy stands out from the crowd, but the Euro-zone's main growth engine is still down
Food for thought: In the past, inflation and higher interest rates created downturns. Today, are low interest rates creating the foundation for the next downturn?
China: Producer prices falling into the deflation zone indicates no signs of a manufacturing rebound
9. July 2019
USA: Small business sentiment declines after a strong rebound in the previous months. NFIB survey continues to show a very tight labour market
Japan: Nominal and real wages continue to contract despite historically low unemployment. The risk of recession is still high
8. July 2019
China's foreign exchange reserves stabilise, but for all the wrong reasons
Germany: A minor rebound in manufacturing activity in May does not change a gloomy outlook
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Sorensen from the Institute for Strategy at the Royal Danish Defence College about a wide range of global foreign policy issues linked to the Rise of China
5. July 2019
USA: Robust June labour market report rules out July rate cut
Germany: Industrial orders fall sharply as there are no signs of a rebound in demand. All factors point to a weak euro
4. July 2019
Euro-zone: Consumer spending disappoints in May despite cyclical tailwinds
3. July 2019
USA: Service sentiment index continues lower. The orders index falls sharply
Podcast interview with Morten Springborg, Thematic Specialist, about tech competition between China and the West, splinternet, 5G and how strong China's tech sector really is
Podcast interview with Casper Wichmann, China tech expert, about tech competition between China and the West, splinternet, 5G and how strong China's tech sector really is
A short note about the EU's top jobs decision: Compromise candidate Ursula von der Leyen is more political inaction. Christine Lagarde keeps the ECB Italian-French
China: Caixin service index declines. Anecdotal evidence of a much weaker economy
1. July 2019
There will be no 'daily macro' updates on July 2
USA: Manufacturing ISM index declines in June although less than market expectations. More worryingly, the ISM orders index fell again sharply
A short note on whether Huawei is a security or a commercial risk. The credibility of President Trump suffered significantly after the G-20 meeting
Bank of Japan Tankan survey shows more weakness than reflected in the monthly surveys; consumer confidence falls sharply in June
China: June PMI index stays in the contraction zone in spite of economic stimulus measures;  Xi Jinping and Donald Trump kick the can down the road, but $250 billion import tariffs remain
28. June 2019
Spain: Rajoy's economic reforms continue boosting growth despite a political mess. Europe turning left will soon dent fiscal credibility
Swiss economic indicators show an increased risk of a technical recession later in 2019; a harbinger of slower Euro-zone growth
Japan: Industrial production rose strongly in June despite extended Golden Week holidays
27. June 2019
EU survey: Euro-zone economic sentiment falls sharply in June; export downturn accelerates
Turkey: A sharp improvement in the economic confidence index does not change the 'double-dip recession scenario' - President Erdogan faces pressure from opposition and AKP
26. June 2019
USA: Durable goods orders continued to lose momentum in May despite the corporate tax cuts. The biggest obstacle to corporate spending is geopolitical uncertainty
France: Consumer sentiment continues to improve boosted by a better labour market and increasing real purchasing power, but the costs may be too high
Germany: Consumer climate deteriorates as households face increasing political uncertainty and a 'government of inaction' in Berlin
25. June 2019
USA: The Conference Board consumer confidence and new home sales statistics disappoint significantly to the downside
France: Service sentiment improves, but manufacturing headline index declines, as the export outlook index falls sharply in June
USA: The Dallas Fed manufacturing headline index plunges in June; corporate spending slows markedly
24. June 2019
Germany: IFO survey shows no signs of an upcoming rebound. Manufacturing sector moves closer to the 'recession zone'
Turkey: President Erdogan defeated in the rerun of the Istanbul election
21. June 2019
USA: Existing home sales report shows solid house price gains supported by low inventories of unsold 'new' homes
A short note on South Korea's 'first-20-days-exports' statistics: No signs of a global trade rebound
20. June 2019
USA: The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index fell sharply in June, but there are still no signs of an upcoming recession
Britain: Households continue to see solid support from real wages and a tight labour market, but the outlook is deteriorating
'China proxy': Taiwanese exports orders to mainland China plunge at the fastest rate since 2013
19. June 2019
EU: Monetary policy contradicting the climate challenge will continue to fuel populist parties. Germany shows what lies ahead
18. June 2019
USA: Housing starts surprise to the upside as the monetary environment improves. A dovish ECB complicates the policy task of the Federal Reserve
Germany: ZEW headline index plunges in June as the corporate sector faces several headwinds, not least sweeping climate policy changes
Turkey: Industrial output plunges ahead of the rerun of local elections in Istanbul. A 'double-dip recession' is in the pipeline
China: House prices continue higher; Beijing cannot afford falling asset prices as households face more headwinds 
17. June 2019
USA: The regional manufacturing Empire State headline index plunges in June. Corporate spending plans decline sharply as well
Euro-zone: Labour shortage boosts wage inflation in the first quarter of 2019. A dramatic political shift in Germany is underestimated by the financial market
USA: The White House's inconsistent foreign policy has created a 'world of disorder'
USA: Strong economic statistics make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut policy rates, although the situation could change dramatically in the second half of 2019
14. June 2019
+++There will only be delayed updates on June 14+++
China: The economy is rapidly losing momentum; aggressive monetary easing is in the pipeline, not least if the G20-meeting turns into a fiasco
13. June 2019
Euro-zone: Industrial output contracts in April, but there are no signs yet of a growth collapse
President Trump's war on several fronts could turn self-destructive
USA: The budget deficit soars as the 'sentiment boost' from the tax cuts has not yet emerged
12. June 2019
USA: Inflation remains subdued despite the threat of global supply chain disruption caused by the trade war
China: Monetary statistics show policymakers are nervous to make the same 'policy mistake' as in 2008-2009. This will change in the second half of 2019
China: Consumer price inflation increases propelled by food prices; inflation at the factory gates continues to decline. President Xi cannot afford to show weakness in Hongkong
11. June 2019
US small business sentiment jumps in May, as the labour market tightens, according to NFIB
Britain: The labour market shows tentative signs of slowing, but the best leading indicators see an increased risk of a recession in 2020
China: Exports boosted by 'frontloading' after new US tariffs threats; imports plunge. Beijing launches more aggressive stimulus measures
7. June 2019
There will be no updates on June 10 due to a public holiday in Denmark
USA: Surprisingly weak labour market report in May boosts the possibility of a significantly more dovish Federal Reserve
Germany: Manufacturing output plunges by a steep 2.5% in April as Berlin is headed towards a radical political shift towards the left
Japan: The Diffusion Index continues to bounce back, but dark clouds remain on the horizon
6. June 2019
USA: The April trade report shows a sharp decline in exports and imports; Trump waging trade war on several fronts will hit global growth in 2020
A short note on a rapidly changing political environment in Germany: The majority of voters prefer a 'red-red-green' government rather than the current 'Groko' coalition
Germany: Industrial orders fail to make a visible rebound in April. The outlook is weak due to the 'climate wave' in Europe, more nationalism in China and a US president believing in mercantilism
USA: ISM service survey shows a resilient economy despite the ongoing trade war. Trade tensions with EU will escalate as the 'climate wave' in Europe is like a red rag to a bull in the White House
4. June 2019
The Euro-zone unemployment rate declines in April to the lowest level since 2008. The risk of Groko collapse creates new uncertainty
Spain: The political situation turns less gloomy after Ciudadanos rejects the far-right Vox party
Podcast interview with China expert Professor Stig Thøgersen about the formation of public opinion in China, Xi Jinping, nationalism and the risk of an upcoming Taiwan crisis
Australia cuts policy rates as the economy faces headwinds from weak domestic demand, China as well as the United States
3. June 2019
USA: The ISM manufacturing index continues to weaken as the trade war escalates to a more dangerous level
Turkey: Inflation in May falls below market expectations, but stays at an elevated level
China: Caixin's manufacturing PMI index stays close to the 'contraction' zone; Beijing raises the stakes by making a blacklist of 'unreliable' foreign companies
31. May 2019
Japan: Strong hard data do not change the fact that the outlook is gloomy. Consumer confidence falls again sharply
China: PMI index falls sharply in May as the 'cold war' escalates. Is political aftermath in Beijing a possible outcome?
29. May 2019
Germany: Unemployment jumps at the same time as Merkel has apparently second thoughts about the CDU leadership transition
Sweden: Q1 growth surprises to the upside, but the outlook is weak as the Riksbank erodes households' real purchasing power
The US-China trade conflict shows that history often repeats itself - unfortunately
28. May 2019
US consumer confidence skyrockets in May. The labour market tightens, according to households
EU Commission survey shows surprisingly strong economic sentiment index in the Euro-zone in May. The British and the Swedish ESI indexes fall sharply
Turkey: The latest economic confidence index is a harbinger of an even deeper recession in 2019
Euro-zone: French consumer confidence jumps as German consumer sentiment falls. The long-term growth outlook remains weak
27. May 2019
European Parliament elections: The 'green wave' shows voters want sweeping measures to fight climate change 'now rather than tomorrow'
24. May 2019
USA: Durable goods orders fell in April. The best forward-looking indicators herald more weakness to come
A short note on the latest 'China proxies'
Global economic and political update
23. May 2019
USA: New home sales report still does not show signs of recession in 2020. The 'hawks' are gaining the upper hand in the White House
Germany IFO survey: Manufacturing weakness feeds into the service sector
France: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back; Euro-zone economy could make a 'mini bounce' in the coming months
Germany: Q1 GDP details indicate a stronger underlying economy than outlined by the headline number
22. May 2019
Japan: Surprisingly strong Reuters Tankan survey reduces the risk of recession in 2019
Euro-zone consumer confidence index jumps in May despite higher inflation
21. May 2019
USA: Existing house prices increase at the slowest rate since 2012 despite a favourable environment
Turkey: Consumer confidence plunges to a new record low. The fiscal deficit is soaring
China anecdotal update shows deteriorating sentiment on the mainland
20. May 2019
USA: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index hits the highest level since January 2004. The Federal Reserve is forced to stay the course
Japan: Surprisingly strong Q1 growth caused by a sharp decline in imports - the outlook remains weak
16. May 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows signs of 'moderate' growth in 2019 and slower growth in 2020; but no signs of recession; ‌Investors misjudge what the White House aims for
China: House prices rose again in April. Beijing is on a delicate balancing act in the housing market
Is China 'weaponising' its holdings of US government bonds? If so, the effect will be limited
15. May 2019
USA: Industrial output dropped in April as US politics turn 'China-hostile' across the board 
US retail sales disappoint, but 'lagging' households still face tailwinds in the short run. A full-blown trade war will lead to a recession in 2020 
Euro-zone: The economy 'survived' in Q1, but the outlook is gloomy, as the risk of a trade war with the United States is on the rise
Germany: Flash GDP Q1 growth rate was in line with market expectations, but underlying details will probably show significant inventory build-up
China: The statistical office 'decides' to show what is obvious on the mainland namely slowing growth
14. May 2019
Britain: 'Brexit' has not yet proven a 'mistake' ahead of European Parliament Elections
Germany: ZEW survey shows a sharp decline in the expectations index as USA and EU prepares for the next trade war
USA: Strong small business sentiment survey shows no signs of headwinds from the trade war
TODAY, THE UPDATES MAY BE DELAYED DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT REUTERS-REFINITIV-DATASTREAM
13. May 2019
The USA-China 'trade war' is getting closer to a point of no return as 'hawks' gain the upper hand
10. May 2019
Italy: Industrial production contracts as absolute real GDP is still only at the 2009-level
Japanese workers' cash earnings falling at the fastest pace since 2015 and soaring inflation expectations hit consumer confidence in April
9. May 2019
USA: Producer price inflation remains subdued but the labour market is tightening and import tariffs could boost PPI and CPI
Spain: The effect of the 'Rajoy-reform process' is evaporating. Industrial output drops sharply in March
China: Monetary statistics in April support the case of a 'false dawn'. China is vulnerable if import tariffs are raised on Friday
China-USA: Are investors and the corporate sector prepared for geopolitical risks on the rise?
8. May 2019
Germany: The construction sector boosts industrial production in March. The outlook remains weak, according to the IFO survey
China: April trade report continues to show a very weak export sector. Do not count on Beijing and Washington to do the 'right thing' as other factors are at play
7. May 2019
Global: Geopolitical risks are on the rise. Is this included in equity risk premium calculations?
Germany industrial orders excluding 'big items' fell sharply in March
6. May 2019
Germany: Engineering orders fall by 10% in Q1; no signs of an upcoming rebound
The China-USA trade deal is 'no stronger than the next tweet from President Trump'. The latest tweet comes after an eventful weekend in Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and Israel
3. May 2019
USA: ISM service survey indicates significantly slower growth in the second half of 2019
USA: Robust April labour market report, but forward-looking indicators herald weakness in the second half of 2019
Euro-zone: Higher headline inflation will put a drag on private consumption; service inflation hits the highest level since 2011
Turkey: Inflation will not go away as the country has 'two central bankers'
2. May 2019
USA: 'Under-estimated' productivity rose strongly in Q1; this was the fastest annual rate of increase since 2009
No signs of relief in the Swedish and Swiss PMI surveys show that this is not a normal slowdown
Germany: Household spending at risk despite strong fundamentals
1. May 2019
USA: A disappointingly weak  ISM survey makes monetary policy a delicate balancing act
USA: Strong ADP employment report is 'supposed to' silence White House talk about a rate cut
30. April 2019
USA: Consumer confidence bounces back; a sharp increase in the share of households seeing 'plentiful-of-jobs' indicates a tight labour market
USA: Employment costs are on the rise, but the rate of increase is low considering a historically low unemployment rate
The Euro-zone 'appears' to survive a tough first quarter; Italy avoids recession
France: Higher inventories boost growth in the first quarter of 2019; the outlook remains weak 
China: Manufacturing PMI indexes decline despite 'stimulus measures', which do not hit the shores of the private corporate sector
29. April 2019
Euro-zone: Money supply accelerates at the same time as loan demand declines
Euro-zone survey shows yet another steep decline in the ESI index; industrial confidence index drops to the lowest since September 2014
China: 'Revised' corporate profit recovers in March propelled by a rebound in SOEs' earnings, but data remain incoherent
26. April 2019
USA: Strong headline GDP growth rate does not tell the full story; Q1 shows weakest real domestic demand since 2013
Japan: Industrial production drops at the fastest rate since March 2015
25. April 2019
USA: Durable goods orders continue to show robust corporate spending
Spain's national election will create one more political problem in the European Union  
Watch out for South Korea: Economic contraction in Q1 will lead to a rate cut; the risk of a '2008-like' won sell-off is on the rise
24. April 2019
Australia: Low inflation, falling house prices, the 'missing China effect' and collateral damage from US-China trade deal add downwards pressure on the Australian dollar
Germany: IFO survey pictures an economy on the edge of recession; manufacturing sentiment drops to the lowest level since 2012
France: Manufacturing sentiment drops to the lowest level since June 2015
23. April 2019
USA: New home sales report still shows no signs of an upcoming recession
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey heralds short-term strength followed by manufacturing contraction in Q1-2020
'China proxies' show no signs yet of a rebound in manufacturing activity
17. April 2019
US trade deficit declines in February as front-loading in H2-2018 and weak demand in Q1 put a drag on imports in H1-2019
Japan: The misery continues
China: Strong industrial production and construction in March 'save' the Q1 GDP report, but the 'costs-of-growth' are on the rise
16. April 2019
USA: Industrial output disappoints in March; there are no significant signs of a rebound
German ZEW survey shows investors see 'hope' as the main driver - 'Facts' still point further downwards
China's highly manipulated house prices rose in March - Beijing walks a delicate balancing act
15. April 2019
US Empire State headline index bounces back, but the six-month outlook index plunges
Unplugged 'Travel Notes': President Xi Jinping moves backwards as the Chinese people moves forwards 
Turkey is an accident waiting to happen on the edge of Europe: Unemployment jumps to the highest level since 2009
China: The latest economic data still mirror an L-shaped growth 'recovery' which was confirmed by last week's trip to the mainland
5. April 2019
There will be no updates from April 8 to April 12, as the editor will be on a trip to China
USA: March labour report is neither too hot nor too cold, but the 'Q3 and beyond' employment outlook is weak
Japan: Wages decline despite the lowest unemployment rate since the early 1990s. The outlook remains weak and consumer confidence is on the decline
Germany: Industrial output data better than market expectations, but the IFO outlook remains weak
4. April 2019
Turkey now faces several headwinds at the same time. Inflation and politics will create a new lira sell-off
Germany: Industrial orders plunge in February. The manufacturing outlook remains weak, according to IFO
3. April 2019
USA: The ISM service index drops in March after a surprisingly strong February survey. A strong employment index continues to show a tight labour market
USA: A weak ADP Employment in March was partially mitigated by an up-revised February number. A lagging labour market will continue to tighten in 2019
Euro-zone: Strong retail sales as households are not yet exposed to headwinds
China: The Caixin service PMI index bounces back after a steep decline in February. The debt situation worsens, according to CASS
2. April 2019
USA: In contrast to consumer spending, corporate spending is not expected to bounce back in 2019
Euro-zone: Producer price inflation heading significantly lower will keep monetary policy accommodative in the foreseeable future
Presentation: The most disruptive time since World War II
1. April 2019
USA: Manufacturing ISM index bounces back, but the details show only a weak rebound
USA: February retail sales report boosts the risk of zero growth in Q1
Europe: The rebound is long in coming. Swiss manufacturing PMI index falls sharply close to contraction
The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey shows a steep decline in manufacturing sentiment
China: Both leading manufacturing PMI surveys show a sharp rebound in sentiment in March
29. March 2019
USA: New home sales report is still not a harbinger of recession. This also makes it difficult for the Fed to change monetary policy
Spain is riding high on Rajoy's reforms, but the foundation for a stronger far-right is on the rise
Japan: Industrial output increases more than expected in February, but the outlook remains gloomy
28. March 2019
There were no Daily Macro updates on Thursday, March 28
27. March 2019
USA: The trade deficit will decline in the first quarter as a consequence of front-loading in 2018. A 'sustainable' trade deal seems highly unlikely
Italy: Manufacturing sentiment continues to contract. Berlin-Paris hypocrisy will keep Rome on path of even stronger China-Italy co-operation
China: A sharp decline in corporate profits reflects a weaker economy than perceived by global investors
26. March 2019
USA: Consumer confidence plunges in March. The share of households seeing plentiful-of-jobs also falls sharply
USA: Housing starts and Case-Shiller reports continue to show weakness in the housing sector
France: Business sentiment shows only tentative signs of growth stabilisation in March. 'Money talks' as Xi Jinping visits France
A short note on anecdotal evidence from China: Deterioration or Stabilisation?
25. March 2019
USA: Dallas Fed manufacturing survey shows no signs of a sustainable bounce in sentiment. The capital expenditure plans index plunges
Brazil: The news flow erodes Bolsonaro's reform process
Germany: IFO survey shows a sharp bounce in service and retailer sentiment, but manufacturing optimism continues to decline
22. March 2019
USA: Existing home sales skyrocketed in February as households benefit from falling mortgage yields
Morning Briefing email problem solved
Japan: Official inflation is benign even though households' inflation expectations hit the highest level since July 2015
21. March 2019
USA: The details in the Philadelphia Fed survey boost the probability of recession in H1-2020 which is reinforced by six more months of Fed balance sheet reduction
Britain: Economic statistics continue to defy 'hell breaks loose' scenario
Berlin and Paris act as China turns into a threat to EU's 'single market' 
20. March 2019
China: Taiwanese and other 'activity indicators' do not show signs of stronger growth on the mainland
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey slowly follows the same path as the Diffusion Index, which boosts the risk of recession in H1
19. March 2019
Weak US factory orders in January - There are surprisingly few signs of a rebound in sentiment in the regional surveys
Germany: ZEW survey shows tentative signs that the economy might have hit rock bottom - Belt-and-Road-Initiative poses a 'threat' to German and French champions
18. March 2019
Japanese trade report offers no hope yet that China could soon 'save the world'
By Invitation: Order in Xi Jinping's Parliament
15. March 2019
THERE WILL BE NO UPDATES ON MARCH 15
China: Monthly house price inflation continues to slow but Beijing and local authorities will prevent outright price decline
14. March 2019
USA: The New home sales report in January does not give cause for recession concern in 2019
China: January-February economic statistics show weakness - The risk of lower residential house prices is on the rise unless PBOC acts more aggressively
13. March 2019
USA: Durable goods orders report still shows no signs of an upcoming recession
Euro-zone: Industrial output bounces back in January after a significant decline in inventories - The outlook deteriorates as Rome, Portugal and Malta opt for China
Japan: Machinery orders report boosts the probability of a recession in H1. China cannot help Japanese exporters because of only 'reluctant' easing measures
12. March 2019
Brazil: Surprisingly subdued inflation supports the currency, but Bolsonaro's temper poses a risk to the planned economic reforms
USA: Benign inflation continues to support US households' real purchasing power
USA: Small business sentiment survey shows tentative signs of a rebound. It will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to avoid the impact of quantitative tightening
11. March 2019
US January retail sales report surprises to the upside but an already weak December report was revised down
Germany: Industrial report disappoints in January. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer challenges Merkel and Paris with her own political agenda
Turkey plunges officially into recession in Q4. The outlook remains gloomy
China: Weak monetary expansion is partly because the hands of monetary decision-makers are tied up by the trade negotiations
8. March 2019
USA: A weak non-farm payroll number was expected but not that weak. Wage inflation is still on the rise and the unemployment rate fell in February
Germany: Industrial orders plunge as demand declines across the board in January
China: January-February trade report shows the boomerang 'frontloading in 2018' is now coming back with a vengeance
ECB press conference is a reminder to investors that the economy is on the same path as Japan. Political inaction in Brussels and Berlin make the periphery turn to the One Belt One Road Initiative
7. March 2019
Euro-zone: Q4 GDP details show a significant negative contribution from inventories
Japan: The Cabinet Office's 'Diffusion Index' heralds a deeper and prolonged period of contraction or recession