11. October 2023
Beijing plans to launch a 'symbolic growth package' - but households let down again
10. October 2023
US NFIB survey: Despite significant monetary tightening, labour shortages are prevailing. Loan availability is declining
A brief summary in English of opinions expressed by Camilla T.N. Sorensen in yesterday's podcast interview about Hama's terror attack in Israel
9. October 2023
Podcast interview: The Middle East is a powder keg that could explode anytime. Is it really in the interest of the Chinese and Americans? [language: Danish]
Israel's 'September 11': The Middle East powder keg could ignite any moment. Hamas terrorist attack will cast global immigration in an even less favourable light
6. October 2023
An analysis of the future yield curve and bond yields based on three assumptions
5. October 2023
Germany at a dangerous crossroads: The window of opportunity for Berlin could close rapidly. Several headwinds are now hitting the economy
4. October 2023
A follow-up chart: US corporate debt, higher interest rates and falling corporate net-interest payments
3. October 2023
Yield curve steepening: There is no room for political missteps in the bond markets
2. October 2023
The Bank of Japan will find it challenging to prevent a steeper sell-off in the long end of the bond market
A bad weekend for the European Union and Ukraine - but unfortunately, not the last. The 'Danish case' does not give cause for optimism among voters
29. September 2023
The public sector debt crisis: Not just America's problem, but the West's looming headache
28. September 2023
The ECB's task of reining in long-term inflation expectations has only just begun - and this will be painful. The EU risk of becoming 'too French'
26. September 2023
Germany: The probability of a huge fiscal stimulus package increases as the 'IFO message' transforms into facts on the ground
25. September 2023
Inflation: Why the focus should shift 'permanently' from inflation to real bond yields
22. September 2023
Is the EU acting according to its size? Paris-Berlin aims for a 'multi-speed Europe'
21. September 2023
US Philadelphia Fed survey underscores a complex environment for the Federal Reserve. Inflation pressure increases, but the headline index declines
France's leading business survey reflects ECB's dilemma: The 'labour shortage problem' will not go away despite slower growth
20. September 2023
The Federal Reserve will likely choose 'unchanged' - and 'higher rates for longer'. The monetary normalisation process has been a success despite the usual grumbles
19. September 2023
Germany: Bundesbank warns about too slow de-risking from China, as 'deindustrialisation' prevails
18. September 2023
Taiwan-China: European investors and companies should prepare for a Chinese 'blockade of Taiwan' shortly after the US election
15. September 2023
China's economic data shows a hint of life. The problems remain the same, but investors might expect a different solution than what Xi Jinping has in mind
Podcast interview with Rhodium Group, Washington: Beijing has no fiscal leeway. What does it mean for Xi Jinping's China?
14. September 2023
ECB hikes policy rates again, navigating a different reality than 2008
13. September 2023
US inflation report: The looming risk of a long-term inflation problem
The risk of a new inflationary leg in the Eurozone and the United States remains significant
4. September 2023
There will be no updates on September 4-8 and 11-12 due to holiday
1. September 2023
US employment report: Monetary policy is working - but the task of the Federal Reserve will be challenged by demographics and geopolitics - and politicians who are not lending a helping hand
31. August 2023
Revisiting monetary policy: Why central banks prefer to err on the 'hawkish' side
China's economic quagmire: Beijing still shows no convincing signs of comprehensive support for the economy because it cannot and does not necessarily want to
30. August 2023
The EU Commission survey supports the ECB's current hawkish monetary stance despite slowing economic momentum. Households are upbeat about the labour market
The geopolitical reality is unfolding at the worst possible time. Therefore, the EU needs to show strength on all fronts now and not tomorrow
29. August 2023
Macroeconomic and Political Update Web Presentation
German households are slowly starting to fear the risk of unemployment despite significant wage increases, but the fear is still far from the levels seen in 2008
28. August 2023
Eurozone contraction: The ECB needs to clean up after two crises because there was a lack of timely action following the Great Recession
25. August 2023
Podcast interview with the President of the EU Chamber in China, Jens Eskelund: Lack of action from the Chinese leadership adds to insecurity [Language: Danish]
Germany: The IFO survey shows signs of the 'Perfect Storm', but the ECB needs to see higher unemployment to end the tightening process
A brief summary of opinions expressed by Jens Eskelund, President of the EU Chamber in China, in today's podcast interview
24. August 2023
France: Insee's business survey indicates declining employment expectations - but households do not see a high risk of becoming unemployed
23. August 2023
USA: Existing Home Sales report underscores the big difference to 2008. The Federal Reserve has a tough task, as fiscal policymakers need to focus on geopolitical risks
22. August 2023
As expected, Beijing disappoints the financial market due to 'well-meaning' but ill-timed policy intentions. Stubbornness can hit the economy hard
21. August 2023
Germany: Factory gate deflation will not change the ECB's monetary stance - even as Beijing's stimulus measures undershoot expectations
18. August 2023
How will China's economic crisis impact inflation in the West?
17. August 2023
USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey shows the challenges facing the Federal Reserve - and its task is far from over
16. August 2023
China's housing market shows no signs of relief. The 'core leader' can forget all about military ambitions without a dynamic and strong economy
Britain: In the midst of a demographic hurricane, inflation will be a recurring issue all over Europe
15. August 2023
The point of no return: Russia and China intensify military cooperation. European politicians, companies, and investors are in the midst of a dangerous geopolitical paradigm shift
A paralysed Beijing reacts reluctantly to economic headwinds because there is a growing fear of more than just a cyclical problem. The answer is more 'Xinomics'
11. August 2023
China's bank lending statistics are yet another blow to Xi Jinping's leadership. There is not much room for many more policy mistakes
10. August 2023
USA: The easy part of 'controlling inflation' will soon be over. The ingredients to create a new inflation leg are present and gaining momentum
Britain: The RICS housing survey shows the complex challenges facing central banks. House prices plunge, and rents increase
9. August 2023
China: 'De-risking' is just another word for 'decoupling' invented in Europe to avoid even more anger in Beijing'. Xi Jinping's next U-turn around the corner?
Central Banks on a tightrope: Why lowering their guard is not an option in an environment of aggressive fiscal spending and demographic headwinds
8. August 2023
USA: The NFIB small business sentiment survey shows tentative signs of bouncing back - but from a low level
China's foreign trade plunges. 'It is the economy, stupid'
4. August 2023
US Employment Report in July: The labour shortage problem will persist in 2024. The bond market needs to adjust the yield curve
Germany: Rising industrial orders in June do not change a grim outlook for the economy. The political centre needs to get its act together, but political disarray prevails
3. August 2023
France: A looming fiscal crisis in the West finally gets the attention of the financial market, but there will be no 'cutting corners' this time
2. August 2023
A short note on why the downgrading of the US credit rating is not an isolated phenomenon but could be a foreboding reality for several EU member states
Beijing sees spies everywhere: Another warning for foreign companies in China?
1. August 2023
USA: ISM manufacturing index shows no signs yet of a rebound, but a 'recovery' is just around the corner, supported by the Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act
Eurozone labour market: This time is markedly different although the difference is still ignored by the bond market
31. July 2023
Germany's economic overhaul: The monetary consequences of a German 'recovery plan'. Without stimulus, the political centre will disappear
China: Weak PMI signals persist. A reluctant Beijing to unveil a huge economic stimulus plan today - but not the same as in 2008
28. July 2023
Eurozone survey: Households' inflation expectations decline. Optimism for the job market persists despite zero economic growth
The Bank of Japan lets the genie out of the bottle by allowing more ten-year bond yield flexibility - adding upward pressure on global bond yields
27. July 2023
ECB lifts key interest rates despite clear signs of slower growth. Does this make sense?
The US Federal Reserve lifts policy rates to the highest since 2001. The new minimum policy rate will be significantly higher than in the past
26. July 2023
Eurozone: The real test of the ECB has just started. Will policymakers maintain the long-term focus?
25. July 2023
USA: More evidence of another growth leg, according to the Conference Board consumer survey
China: New measures to stimulate the economy: A desperate turn or a calculated manoeuvre? Are private entrepreneurs and foreigners willing to bite the hook?
Germany: The IFO survey casts a shadow on the economy. Soon a new party could pull even more votes from the centre - but this time from the far left
21. July 2023
Podcast interview with Marlene Wind, Special Advisor for Josep Borrell: The need for a strong and united EU is greater than ever, but is it possible? [language: Danish]
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey underscores the probability of another 'growth' leg. How does this align with an inverted yield curve?
20. July 2023
A steep decline in Taiwan's export orders and South Korea's trade figures show a gloomy economy. China's economy needs more than words
France: Insee survey shows no signs of an upcoming recession. The labour market is tight, and the fiscal deficit is on the rise
19. July 2023
Britain: Inflation is easing, but Prime Minister Sunak has let the genie out of the bottle
18. July 2023
China's looming economic challenges: Will Xi Jinping continue to disregard a significant risk of asset price deflation?
17. July 2023
Podcast interview with commodity expert Ole S. Hansen: Europe - Is the energy supply secured for the coming winter?
14. July 2023
USA: A strong University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is more evidence of another 'growth leg' coming - in an economy without idle workers
The unusual monetary policy of the Bank of Japan amid global tightening, private consumption and 1989-1990
13. July 2023
Germany's complicated relationship with China and Russia in an environment with AfD now at 22% and with 'moral backing' in Beijing
China's declining trade figures are a reflection of mounting challenges. Mexico is now the largest supplier of the United States
12. July 2023
USA: Falling inflation will not change the monetary stance of the Federal Reserve, considering a historically tight labour market
A short note on the NATO summit in Vilnius: Geopolitics leave little room for ECB manoeuvring despite falling inflation
11. July 2023
Spain: Households feel good, but the voters could move the country significantly to the far right on July 23, as 'Spanish values are at risk'
Britain needs more than just luck to escape the long-term consequences of an irresponsible fiscal and monetary policy since 2008
10. July 2023
China's deflationary problem: A consequence of policy choices. 'Young people need not be sent to the countryside to understand the world'
7. July 2023
USA: Higher wage inflation and weaker-than-expected employment growth in June - or maybe companies cannot find qualified workers
Central banks and 'robust' house prices: The difference compared to 2008 makes monetary policy far more challenging
6. July 2023
US ISM service survey: The Federal Reserve is forced to err on the hawkish side due to a different environment compared to 2008 and the 1970s
Germany: Military equipment demand helps boost industrial orders, but the outlook remains grim. AfD [21%] could soon become the largest party. Is a CDU-CSU-AfD coalition possible in the future?
5. July 2023
Eurozone: Disinflation continues, but the ECB focuses on the labour market. Germany needs 1.5 million immigrants per year to maintain the size of the workforce, according to 'wise men'
China's 'solution' to the economic challenges is more ideology and nationalism - in sharp contrast to the financial crisis in 2008
3. July 2023
USA: ISM survey shows no signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector. Disinflation intensifies
France: Paris is running out of fiscal ammo as the budget deficit moves closer to the pandemic level
The stock market: Artificial Intelligence expectations and falling headline inflation versus inverted yield curves
28. June 2023
France: Insee consumer survey shows a tighter labour market in the coming months despite slower growth. Wages are rising
There will be no updates on June 29-30
Eurozone: ECB's Monetary Development Report shows further monetary weakness and slowing loan demand
Germany: An unpredictable future and political chaos in Berlin cause consumer sentiment to drop despite short-term tailwinds
27. June 2023
USA: The yield curve says recession, but the economy has not 'surrendered' yet. New home sales skyrocket in May - and consumer confidence bounces back
A historically right-wing shift in Germany and the rest of the EU will have consequences in all areas
26. June 2023
IFO survey: Germany faces a double-dip recession as geopolitics pulls the carpet under the economy. AfD sees more gain in the latest opinion poll. Also, a short note on Russia
23. June 2023
Britain: The renewed surge in consumer confidence indicates, to no small extent, that fiscal and monetary policymakers are not in control of the inflation situation
Japan: Core inflation hits the highest since the early 1980s - but BOJ does not believe inflation has gained a firm foothold
22. June 2023
France: Insee survey shows weak growth. The labour shortage problem remains the same as one year ago. Higher ECB policy rates for longer
21. June 2023
The Bank of England is slowly learning the lesson: More tightening is the only option in an economy running out of workers
20. June 2023
China's changing social landscape requires younger leadership better in touch with the people
Germany: Falling factory gates inflation is not a surprise. The ECB will stay the course of bringing policy rates and bond yields back to the 'old normal'
19. June 2023
USA-China rivalry: 'Two steps backwards, one step forward - followed by another two steps backwards'
16. June 2023
USA: UoM survey shows households benefiting from lower inflation and higher wages. Are there tentative signs of a new growth leg in Q4?
Eurozone: According to the ECB, wage pressure remains far too high for comfort. It will become worse in 2024 - with or without Artificial Intelligence
Japan: The central bank stays the course as if nothing has happened, triggering more yen weakness
15. June 2023
China: The economy has a significant growth problem - but the biggest problem is a stubborn political leadership
14. June 2023
USA: Factory gate inflation slows, but the Federal Reserve will stay the course until 2% has been reached
Germany: Wholesale inflation indicates a sharp decline in headline inflation in H2, but the labour market tells a different story
13. June 2023
USA: NFIB small business survey shows significant demand-side impact from monetary policy - but the labour market remains very tight and price pressure persists
The Chinese seek solutions from a clueless centre: 'Ten basis points interest rate cut'! Imbalances created in a semi-capitalist system now need to be solved in a Marxist state-capitalist system
Britain: Zero growth and a buoyant labour market say everything about the problems facing Europe
12. June 2023
Eurozone: Why today is different from 2008 and the 1970s. You ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to demographic headwinds
9. June 2023
China: The May inflation statistics indicate a very weak domestic demand side. The provinces seek solutions from a pressured leadership at the centre, but it has no clear answers
8. June 2023
Podcast: What does 'hundred years of humiliation of China' mean for Beijing and the rest of the world today? More than you think [language: Danish]
The Eurozone recorded a mild recession in Q1, but bond yields are still headed higher despite lower growth in the coming years
7. June 2023
China: The economy sees pressure from 'containment measures' and monetary tightening in the West. 'Self-reliance and a strong military' is Beijing's answer
6. June 2023
The lessons from Australia: Monetary normalisation is here to stay for an extended period despite declining inflation
Germany: The economy's fragile 'reconstruction' has just started, but the coalition government in Berlin is already in big trouble
5. June 2023
USA: ISM service survey shows falling growth, lower inflation and employment contraction
Turkey needs to do the opposite of Erdoganomics, now and not tomorrow. The unavoidable outcome will be a deep recession
2. June 2023
USA: The labour market remains buoyant despite slow growth. The Federal Reserve will continue on a path of monetary tightening
1. June 2023
USA: ISM manufacturing survey shows no signs of an upcoming recovery. The price index drops sharply
German workers lost within 18 months what they had gained since 2010. Now, they want compensation
31. May 2023
Germany: The inflation report continues to benefit from a mild winter. Is there too much self-complacency in a more dangerous world?
China is at a crossroads: Western corporate leaders with significant interests in China have many good reasons to be concerned about the future
30. May 2023
USA: Consumer survey shows tentative signs of weakness in the labour market but still elevated inflation expectations
Eurozone: A weak EU survey and ECB Monetary Development Report will boost market expectations of a more dovish ECB
Sweden: The lack of credibility in the previous decades hangs over the Swedish krona like a dark cloud
26. May 2023
USA: Inflation expectations will not go away in the current tight labour market environment
25. May 2023
France: The economy will soon come to a standstill
A short note on the US debt limit crisis: One cannot ignore the fact that the Republicans have a valid concern that the United States needs to address now
24. May 2023
Germany: IFO survey confirms the Eurozone struggle is far from over. It has only just begun
British CPI report: This is neither '2008' nor 'the 1970s' - the long-term task of central banks is far more challenging
23. May 2023
US new home sales report: No signs of 'economic contraction' will force the Federal Reserve to err on the hawkish side
A short note on the latest geopolitical events: The course of events has taken control away from politicians around the world
22. May 2023
'Virtual China visit' - Steffen Schiottz-Christensen from Chengdu, China. Register Now - 'First come, first served'
Japan: 'Back-sourcing' and increasing wages require significantly higher productivity, corporate spending and inflow of foreign workers
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows more disinflation and manufacturing contraction. The starting point in the next recovery phase is a tight labour market
17. May 2023
Japan: The economy surprises by showing strong growth in the first quarter of 2023, but labour shortages put a lid on the economy
A strong French labour market report is not good news but underscores an EU problem that will become significantly worse in the future
16. May 2023
Podcast interview with Anders Overvad, Think Tank Europa: The EU faces a fiscal and demographic hurricane [language: Danish]
China's economy stumbles, but Beijing has no intentions of supporting households. The main focus is SOEs and defence spending
15. May 2023
Eurozone: A mild winter is not enough to support manufacturing activity. Many European manufacturers face an existential crisis without subsidises
Germany: Falling wholesale price statistics indicate CPI inflation close to the 3%-4% range. Nonetheless, 'monetary normalisation' continues
12. May 2023
The European Union faces an unprecedented demographic and fiscal hurricane
11. May 2023
China: A benign inflation report underscores structural weakness in the economy. Will Beijing bail out distressed provinces?
10. May 2023
USA: Annual inflation is slowing, but still a long way to go with a different labour market than in 2008 - and higher 'normalised policy rates'
Italy: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has, so far, been a positive surprise. However, pragmatism will soon be tested as Italy faces unprecedented demographic headwinds
9. May 2023
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey underscores the decisive difference between 2008 and today
USA: CBO report shows soaring interest payment boosting the budget deficit. Investors need to get used to a new normal - the end of central banks sponsoring fiscal expansion
8. May 2023
Is Turkey still a democracy? If so, the upcoming election provides hope for the future and a sharp lira appreciation
Germany: Industrial orders and production plunge. Berlin moves to 'Plan B' - subsidised energy price of 6 cents. The slow demolition of the Single Market continues
USA April Employment Report: Secular forces will limit the rise in unemployment despite lower growth. Consequence: Elevated policy rates for longer
4. May 2023
USA: The financial market interpretation is 'pause' or 'easing', but the press conference shows Powell intends to err on the hawkish side
3. May 2023
USA: ISM service survey neither indicates an upcoming recession nor contraction in the labour market
France: Public sector imbalances deteriorate. The ECB will no longer sponsor fiscal irresponsibility, leading to higher real bond yields
The Federal Reserve is aware that a premature reversal of monetary policy will have the same catastrophic consequences as in 1980
2. May 2023
Not an easy task for the ECB: Another weak German retail sales report, more deposits outflow from Eurozone banks and falling 'lending standard'
Australia: The RBA's decision to raise policy rates is a reminder to the financial market of a long-term monetary normalisation process
1. May 2023
USA: The manufacturing sector still shows economic contraction but not enough to change the course of monetary policy
The Bank of Japan stays the course despite increasing core inflation. Reindustrialisation and rearmament will make the impact of adverse demographics even worse
China: Growth momentum slows as the impact of the reopening process fades. Beijing exploits geopolitics to make life even harder for foreign brands on the mainland
14. April 2023
No updates from April 17th to April 28th
Falling inflation is precisely what central banks and the bond market predicted. But it will be challenging to fulfil investors' next expectations leg in the Eurozone
13. April 2023
USA: The March producer price report shows what the ISM survey has predicted for some time. Investors forecast rate cuts, but a policy of 'monetary normalisation' will prevail
China's trade report is yet more evidence that Beijing is betting on one of the 'old tools' - exports. Beijing will launch more aggressive infrastructure spending
12. April 2023
USA: Falling energy prices pull headline inflation lower. Service price inflation slows but remains far too high
The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma - but its freedom of manoeuvring is limited
11. April 2023
China turns to the same policies that President Xi Jinping despised in the past. State-sponsored asset managers bail out state banks. Chinese manufacturers move production closer to the United States
'Mission Accomplished' for Beijing: President Macron's catastrophic kowtow in Beijing divides the EU even more, and the transatlantic alliance is now at risk
5. April 2023
USA: ISM service survey shows broad-based weakness - and significantly lower inflation pressure
The US labour market shows tentative signs of weakness - but this will not change the task of the Federal Reserve because the situation is different from 2008
4. April 2023
Beijing's efforts to internationalise the yuan are bearing fruit. The United States cannot overestimate the consequences of losing the dollar's status as a reserve currency
Eurozone: German trade report underscores that dependence on China keeps increasing - directly and indirectly
3. April 2023
USA: ISM manufacturing PMI index dropped deeper into the contraction zone - and Opec+ throws a spanner into the works
The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey shows a tightening labour market, stronger service sentiment and a weaker manufacturing sector. Still waiting for 'monetary normalisation'
31. March 2023
Germany: Retail sales in real terms plunge, as workers do not care about falling annual inflation. Workers need falling consumer prices or higher wages
President Xi Jinping is no longer trying to hide where China is headed. History shows that it pays to listen to authoritarian leaders
30. March 2023
EU survey shows lacklustre growth, no further improvement in CPI inflation, but falling factory gate price pressure - and a tight labour market
Eurozone: Preliminary reports show a sharp decline in the inflation rate. Nonetheless, the ECB does not base monetary policy on 'base effects'. Policy bias remains hawkish
29. March 2023
Sweden: A small bounce in business and consumer sentiment, but households' inflation assessment skyrockets to a new all-time high
Germany and France: Consumer surveys underscore the challenges facing the ECB. Wage increase calls are supported by demographic 'tailwind'
28. March 2023
Bank deposit outflows accelerated in the Eurozone in February. Commercial banks will be forced to raise deposit rates
France: Insee business survey shows lacklustre growth - and sticky prices. ECB says tightening will continue
27. March 2023
Eurozone: ECB's Monetary Development shows tightening conditions - but the ECB is expected to stay the course of 'overkilling' the economy
Germany: IFO survey significantly reduces the risk of 'recession' - so far
24. March 2023
Japan: The quality of being 'long the yen' - even without monetary tightening
23. March 2023
USA: The banking crisis and Wall Street investors distract the Federal Reserve, but Chairman Powell will stay the course
22. March 2023
Britain: Inflation will not go away as central banks face a totally different environment than in 2008
A short note on the 'frenemies meeting' in Moscow: Deglobalisation, RMB internationalisation and more geopolitical tensions confirmed
21. March 2023
US existing home sales jumped much-faster-than-expected in February - house prices dropped for the first time since 2012
The big difference between the '2008 bank run' and today: There is political and public support to rescue the banking system - but not for bailing out bank shares
20. March 2023
Germany: Factory gates inflation declines, but the absolute level of producer prices is still 50% higher than in 2019 - and the next inflation leg has already hit the shore
Podcast interview with foreign policy expert Camilla Tenna Nørup Sørensen: War or peace? Is China's President Xi Jinping a peacemaker or Moscow's ally? [language: Danish]
17. March 2023
Xi Jinping as peacemaker in Europe? Yes, if China benefits
Eurozone: Labour costs jumped in the last quarter of 2022. Q1 will be even stronger as the EU faces a secular labour supply problem
China cuts the reserve requirement ratio. The economy needs growth drivers. Xi Jinping could act as a peacemaker in Europe if China benefits. China and USA could benefit
16. March 2023
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey continues to show a weak manufacturing sector - but activity in the service sector is far more important
A short note on today's ECB Meeting: Monetary tightening is needed because today is not 2008
China: House prices 'bounce' back in February - but housing fundamentals are weak
Podcast interview with China expert Jorgen Delman: The West regrets its dependence on China - and Beijing bets on self-sufficiency and increases military spending. Decoupling will be expensive, very expensive - for China and the West [language: Danish]
15. March 2023
China: Economic statistics in January-February do not give rise to much optimism
14. March 2023
USA: Headline inflation moderates, but the biggest sector of the economy, services, sees the highest inflation rate since 1982
USA: NFIB small business survey shows a tightening labour market
By Invitation: China's new Parliament focuses on economic recovery, security, and confrontation with the US
13. March 2023
A short note on the Iran-Saudi deal, yuan internationalisation, SVP, federal debt refinancing, CHIPS, IRA, banking crisis and North Korea
USA: Fiscal balances deteriorate as the Federal Reserve creates headwinds - and will continue to do so. Washington will soon have to raise defence spending markedly
10. March 2023
USA: January labour market report was not a 'statistical error' - and employment growth continued in February. No signs of labour market weakness in the coming months
China: Monetary statistics still show no signs of a sustainable and self-propelled economic recovery. Does Xi Jinping care? Maybe!
'Virtual Company visit' - Albatros: Adventure tourism in China - and what is happening in China. Register Now - 'First come, first served'
9. March 2023
China: Falling inflation shows a weak and vulnerable recovery. The 'solidarity dilemma' facing Europe
8. March 2023
The Eurozone is facing the same tight liquidity situation as the US economy - but the ECB faces bigger problems
USA: The liquidity situation is now contracting at the fastest rate since the 'Volcker era' - and the labour market might still show strength for a little longer
7. March 2023
Germany: Industrial orders continue to bounce back. The difference between the financial crisis and today is the demographic headwind
A disappointing trade report and the Two-Sessions NPC meeting underscore that China faces significant headwinds
6. March 2023
China's Two-Sessions Meeting: 'Moderate' growth forecast of only 5% in 2023 despite the reopening process. Why? Beijing plans to use more money on geopolitical threats - to the disadvantage of private consumption
3. March 2023
USA: The service sector is becoming the economy's main inflation driver. This means more work for the Federal Reserve, although inflation pressure declined in today's survey
Eurozone: Factory gates headline prices decline in January, but core prices increase. The new reality will create price volatility in the future
Japan: Tokyo price subsidies do not disguise increasing inflationary pressures. The share of households 'seeing inflation higher than 5%' skyrockets
2. March 2023
Eurozone: Core inflation gains momentum in February as the ECB faces a larger-than-expected and structural inflation problem
Revisiting the 'monetary normalisation case': European real bond yields are still low based on ten-year inflation expectations
1. March 2023
USA: ISM manufacturing survey shows more contraction and higher inflation pressure
Germany: Headline price pressure fails to decline before the next inflation leg emerges. More tightening for longer will continue the normalisation process in the bond market
China: A sharp rebound in the official PMI indexes creates the foundation for higher commodity prices - and will contribute to a new global inflation leg in H2
28. February 2023
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey shows falling inflation expectations. The share of households 'seeing plentiful of jobs' jumped in February
Eurozone: The ECB will be forced to tighten more for longer as the monetary union faces structural inflation problems
27. February 2023
Podcast interview: Is the 'China adventure' over? [language: Danish]
Eurozone: A tight labour market makes households 'upbeat' - or 'less downbeat'. Stronger wage increases?
24. February 2023
USA: New home sales, tight labour market and sticky inflation will force policy rates higher for longer - and trigger a recession
Germany: Falling energy prices fail to boost spending plans as households see Berlin's foreign policy strategy in the last two decades collapse
Sweden: The economy showed only a weak rebound in sentiment in February. Service sector inflation expectations hit a new all-time high, according to NIER
Japan: Inflation increases to the highest since 1981. Toyota raises wages at the fastest pace in 26 years
22. February 2023
Germany: IFO survey shows an improving 'outlook' - or 'less downbeat' future. But 'China' could turn into Berlin's next nightmare
France: Insee business sentiment survey shows steady growth - but is Europe prepared for what comes after 'Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow'?
21. February 2023
Germany: ZEW survey continues to see improvement in investor sentiment - but the 'China arm' is now at risk
Eurozone consumer confidence recovers at a painfully slow pace as geopolitical tensions increase. The Munich Security Conference was the last straw
Podcast interview with Steen Jakobsen, CIO, Saxo Bank: How big is the risk of sustained high inflation? [language: Danish]
20. February 2023
Sweden: Core inflation continues to increase. Geopolitics will create a new leg in commodity price inflation. The Munich Security Conference underscores how bad the situation is
17. February 2023
France: No signs that inflation will peak anytime soon
Germany: Factory gates inflation will decline more slowly than market expectations. The next inflation leg will come from the 'demographic hurricane'
Podcast: Europe faces a 'demographic hurricane'. What are the implications?
16. February 2023
USA: Higher-than-expected factory gates inflation and a steep decline in manufacturing sentiment are a bad cocktail
China: House prices stabilised in January, but the underlying economic trend shows an 'economic mess' without reforms to unwind imbalances
15. February 2023
USA: US retail sales report indicates 'no landing' - which means 'higher policy rates for much longer'
Britain: Inflation declined in January and will continue to do so in February-March, but a tight labour market will create a new inflation leg
14. February 2023
USA: The consumer price report shows no signs that the Federal Reserve is in control of inflation. Service price inflation soars - and investors are far too complacent
USA: NFIB survey shows weak growth but very strong demand for workers. Job-openings bounce back
Japan: The economy shows moderate growth in Q4, as another 'Stanley Fischer disciple' takes charge of the Bank of Japan. The task remains the same as before - monetary reversal
French and British labour market reports show a very tight European labour market
13. February 2023
China: The recovery is too slow for comfort, as policy decisions in the past put a drag on the economy. More stimulus measures are in the pipeline
9. February 2023
There will be no updates on Friday, February 10
Germany: CPI report disappoints - but headline inflation will decline. Conversely, the ECB faces secular inflationary headwinds
Britain: The RICS survey shows more price pressure in the pipeline in the housing sector
8. February 2023
Eurozone: The demographic hurricane will make monetary policy challenging in 2023 and for years to come without sweeping labour market reforms
7. February 2023
Japanese workers are exposed to the highest cash earnings increase since 1997. Nonetheless, Tokyo opts for the second-most dovish candidate to replace Kuroda
Outlook 2023 - 'step by step'
6. February 2023
Germany: Big-item orders boost industrial orders in December. The case for a tight monetary policy remains strong in the Eurozone
3. February 2023
USA: A strong rebound in the ISM service survey makes the labour market report more credible
USA: The labour market showing no signs of weakness is not what the Federal Reserve aims for. More tightening is coming
Eurozone: Factory gates inflation slows, but the risk of a 'second inflation leg' further down the road is building
A summary in English: Podcast interview with retired Brigadier General Carsten Rasmussen
The foundation for a 'second leg of inflation' is building
2. February 2023
Podcast interview with former Brigadier General Carsten Rasmussen: Will the EU ever be able to defend itself against the military threat from Russia? Is the threat acute when the Danish government does not plan to reach the 2% target before 2030? [Language: Danish]
Spain's labour market underscores the secular problem facing the European Union. Also, the EU Commission is at the beginning of 'dismantling' the Single Market for goods and services
Must-read article about China
1. February 2023
USA: ISM survey shows slower manufacturing activity - but the JOLTS survey shows an even tighter labour market. The financial market is too optimistic when it comes to a monetary U-turn
Eurozone: Headline inflation drops, core inflation stays elevated, and the labour market remains very tight. A recipe for more tightening
USA: What kind of employment situation is the Federal Reserve facing? A very tight labour market - and this will lead to elevated wage inflation in the foreseeable future
31. January 2023
USA: The Employment Cost Index will not change the direction of monetary policy. Wages are still increasing at the fastest since 1984
The Eurozone escaped recession in Q4 due to high winter temperatures - but the ECB now has even more tightening to do
China: PMI survey shows relief rather than optimism. 'Xi going to Moscow' will undermine efforts to improve relations with the EU - unless Putin cannot distinguish between dreams and reality
30. January 2023
Eurozone: A strong rebound in economic sentiment requires a more robust response from the ECB - Sell the European stock market
EU: Monetary policymakers are walking a delicate balancing act but are forced to tighten more for longer. Spain's core inflation jumped in January, Sweden's economy shrank in Q4
27. January 2023
USA: New home sales report keeps the risk of a recession elevated - but the Federal Reserve is more focused on the risk of 'premature easing'
Japan: Inflation is 'transitory for longer'. The Bank of Japan needs an emergency exit in order not to lose face
26. January 2023
USA: The underlying details show a weak Q4 GDP report. The Federal Reserve will stay the course but is walking a delicate balancing act as the liquidity situation is very tight
Sweden: The Riksbank has made the bed; now, the economy must lie on it - NIER survey
South Korea: The economy shrank in Q4 - and the outlook is not improving. The Bank of Korea will pause, but the bias remains tightening
25. January 2023
Germany: IFO expectations index continues to bounce back, as a mild winter saves the economy - and not least the manufacturing sector
24. January 2023
Britain: CBI survey shows falling factory gates inflation and orders - but business optimism and hiring plans bounce back
France: Insee business sentiment survey indicates stable growth in the first quarter of 2023 - but the next inflation leg could be just around the corner
Germany: Falling energy prices boost consumer sentiment but fail to raise household spending. ECB faces a problematic inflation outlook
23. January 2023
Eurozone: Consumer confidence slowly bounces back from an all-time low as households see compensation for energy inflation that never emerged
22. January 2023
Podcast: China's reopening - 'On the ground insights' from a foreigner in Shanghai
20. January 2023
Germany: Factory gates inflation slows, leading to even lower consumer price inflation. Nonetheless, the ECB stays the course of monetary normalisation
19. January 2023
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows tentative signs of a 'possible' rock bottom in the manufacturing sector in March or April. Goods price deflation remains strong
Britain: The RICS survey shows a steep decline in house prices in an environment of elevated conventional inflation. The scope for a 'soft landing' is far too narrow for central banks to succeed
18. January 2023
USA: Factory gates inflation will prevail in the first few months of 2023, but service price inflation will stay elevated in H2
Japan: 'The last man is still standing' - but for how long?
Podcast: China after COVID - What does Beijing want - and what does it mean for us? [language: Danish]
