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8. April 2020
VIDEO: China's restart - Households are increasingly acting as they did before the coronavirus outbreak
7. April 2020
A necessary but risky restart of Europe's economy has begun: Denmark opts for a peculiar restart strategy or has the 'curve' simply turned too flat?
6. April 2020
Japan: Consumer confidence plunges to the lowest level since March 2009 as the coronavirus outbreak appears out of control
Why are national health authorities not listening to anecdotal evidence from Asia? Credibility is needed if a 'second wave' were to emerge
Germany: Industrial orders fell less-than-expected in February. Nonetheless, IFO survey heralded orders to plunge by 20% shortly before the number of infected persons stood at only 2,700
Britain: Consumer confidence plummets to the lowest level since 2009 shortly before the coronavirus truth was available to the public - Bank of England is not in the mood of money-printing
3. April 2020
USA: The March ISM service index declines much less than market expectations. That said, the situation will deteriorate significantly in April
USA: Nonfarm payrolls plummeted by 701,000 as the report only takes into account payroll activity through March 14. April unemployment rate above 10% is highly likely
Euro-zone: Panic-buying boosts retail sales in February. March retail sales could collapse in the range of 20% to 30%
China: Private service PMI survey shows what lies ahead for the mainland and the rest of the world
2. April 2020
Coronavirus outbreak in Europe: Investors and companies face a future with national health authorities knowing less than they believed in January
Spain: The number of unemployed skyrockets at the worst possible time shortly before peak season
1. April 2020
ISM survey: USA pays a heavy price for a President, who has been more interested in protecting the economy and investors at the expense of ordinary people's health. Both are now losing big time
Sweden: PMI index plunges to the lowest level since April 2009. This time the Riksbank's classic monetary response will not make a difference. Instead, the focus is now on Swedish health authorities
China: A strong rebound in the Caixin PMI index shows that the 'restart process' has begun - but the risk of a 'second wave' this autumn dents the long-term growth potential
31. March 2020
USA: Consumer confidence declines less than expected but based on a preliminary survey conducted before March 19
South Korea: A highly successful containment and testing strategy will not prevent significant economic damage. Business sentiment plunges to the lowest level since 2009
China: A successful containment strategy boosts business sentiment, but the road to 'normal' will be an uphill struggle
30. March 2020
EU business and consumer survey shows a steep decline in economic sentiment. The lockdown makes it impossible for many respondents to create feedback
VIDEO Interview: How is China's 'restart' progressing - and what can Europe learn?
27. March 2020
Declining European consumer and business confidence raises the first critical questions about the shut-down strategy. What would have happened without the shut-down?
26. March 2020
Europe should hurry to create a new 'infrastructure' and social behaviour that will make people feel safe when the 'restart' begins in May - if we are lucky
France: Service sentiment plunged even before the number of infected persons skyrocketed in the second half of March
25. March 2020
USA: No major coronavirus impact on durable goods orders in February. This will change radically in March and the second quarter
Germany: IFO index plummets to the lowest level since 2008 as the coronavirus outbreak hits the shores. The service sentiment index hit a new all-time low
Coronavirus crisis: The aftermath of the 'first wave' is critical for the consequences of the 'second wave'. Do not bet on President Trump to solve the crisis
24. March 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed service sentiment index collapses to the lowest level on record
Britain: Manufacturing sentiment fell sharply before the number of infected persons skyrocketed in the country. Light at the end of the tunnel in Italy
23. March 2020
South Korea and Taiwan: The economy benefits from a successful containment strategy. Europe and the United States pay a high price for a failed strategy
20. March 2020
USA: The housing market was buoyant shortly before the coronavirus outbreak hit the shores. More than 14000 infected and still growing
Coronavirus update: Households 'playing safe' in the foreseeable future will dent global productivity for a long time to come
19. March 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed index plunges in March as the first wave of the coronavirus outbreak hits the shores
A possible economic and stock market scenario version 2.0. Containment, testing and a possible vaccine are the crucial factors - and not aggressive 'demand' stimulus measures, at least not at this stage
18. March 2020
USA: Strong housing starts report shortly before 'day zero'
Podcast interview with Steffen Schiottz-Christensen about a slow 'restart process' in China. A 'survival kit' for Europeans in the coming weeks and months [FREE ACCESS]
17. March 2020
US retail sales report: Silence before the storm - containment first followed by fiscal stimulus later
Japan: Reuters Tankan business sentiment plummets to the lowest level since 2009
16. March 2020
US Empire State headline index plummets as the first wave of coronavirus outbreak hits the shores
Europe getting it's act together gives rise to some optimism - 'Containment' and stabilising the banking system are the key factors rather than fiscal and monetary easing
China: Economic activity plummets in February in line with anecdotal evidence. Light at the end of the tunnel. 'Containment' is the key factor. Aggressive fiscal stimulus measures should come after 'containment'
13. March 2020
USA: Consumer sentiment index declines in March. The 'real picture' of the coronavirus outbreak could create panic among households
12. March 2020
USA: Inflation will be absent in the very near future as the virus outbreak will hit demand
Coronavirus advise from China: Face masks
11. March 2020
A possible storyboard for the global stock market in a highly unpredictable environment
Coronavirus outbreak: Learn from Taiwan today - and not tomorrow!
10. March 2020
USA: Small business sentiment stays at an elevated level. The number of coronavirus-infected skyrockets amidst a shortage of test kits
China: Skyrocketing pork prices in February. President Xi Jinping has finally enough courage for an inspection tour of Wuhan
9. March 2020
Japan: The Economy Watcher future conditions index plummets to the lowest level since 2009 as Tokyo is left without ammo 
The coronavirus is spreading uncontrollably as European and US authorities have learned little from China's severe mistakes made at the beginning of the crisis. Milan region is 'Wuhan' and Italy is 'Hubei'
6. March 2020
USA: The labour market was strong before the coronavirus hit the shores. The Federal Reserve can print money but not vaccines
Podcast interview with Tom Xiong in Shanghai about the ongoing business impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China - and what Europe can learn from China's experience [FREE ACCESS]
Germany: Industrial orders bouncing back in January is history as coronavirus cases skyrocket. Health authorities missed one important point - 30% of population is older than 60
5. March 2020
China: Q1 growth revised down again as the 'restart process' is painfully slow
Brazil: Policymakers launched several of the right reforms, but the country now faces a huge external shock and a currency going into a tailspin
4. March 2020
USA: ISM service sentiment index jumps in February and the orders index skyrockets. The coronavirus outbreak hitting the shores poses a serious threat to the economy
USA: Private employment report shows modest job gains shortly before the full impact of China's manufacturing collapse and the coronavirus outbreak hit US shores
Germany: 'Healthy' households are now exposed to the 'fear factor' as the authorities seem behind the 'coronavirus curve'
Coronavirus outbreak: China has made the storyboard for Europe and the United States. What are the implications?
3. March 2020
Euro-zone: The unemployment rate stays at the lowest level since 2008. The coronavirus hitting the shores could change the situation within a few months if the current 'containment strategy' were to fail
What comes after investors switched from 'complacency' to 'excessive fear'? The aftermath of the coronavirus outbreak could be significant for the corporate sector in China, Europe and the United States
2. March 2020
USA: Manufacturing ISM survey shows weakness shortly before the 'coronavirus fear' hits the shores of the United States
China: Anecdotal evidence from today shows manufacturing improvement but many 'bottlenecks'. Activity in the travel sector has collapsed. Service sector remains weak
Turkey makes yet another policy-mistake by opening the borders to migrants. Europe will respond differently than in 2015, which could turn ugly
Sweden: Manufacturing PMI index continues to recover to the highest level since November 2018. Export orders index skyrockets
China: The headline index in the PMI service and manufacturing surveys plummets to an all-time low in February as the 'restart' turns out to be an uphill struggle. Light at the end of the tunnel - or just the effect of the 'national team'?
28. February 2020
Turkey: Aggressive fiscal and monetary easing boosts Q4 growth. Syrian refugees enter EU after Ankara opens borders to Greece and Bulgaria
The coronavirus outbreak should raise two fundamental questions for policymakers: First, have central banks left our economy defenceless against external shocks? Second, has globalisation gone too far?
Japan: Industrial production bounced back shortly before 'day zero'. Global coordinated monetary easing is in the pipeline
27. February 2020
USA: Anaemic growth in durable goods orders in January. No profound signs of a sharp rebound in corporate spending and policymakers have no ammo to fight a 'black swan'
EU business and consumer survey showed upbeat sentiment shortly before the coronavirus hit the shores more aggressively
Must-listen Podcast interview with Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China: Is the coronavirus outbreak a wake-up call to European companies in China? Topics such as a serious shortage in the pharmaceutical sector [FREE ACCESS]
26. February 2020
USA: New home sales skyrocketed in January before the coronavirus hit the shores
France: Households were highly upbeat before the coronavirus outbreak due to a strong labour market
Anecdotal evidence from China, telling the truth and how 'nonchalant' health authorities in Europe and the United States underestimated the impact of millions of Chinese travellers and their own citizens visiting China
25. February 2020
USA: Consumer confidence remains upbeat as the coronavirus is 'far away from the shore' - at least so far
France: Business sentiment was robust 'before' the Italian coronavirus outbreak
Germany: Q4 GDP details show weak underlying growth. Coronavirus outbreak in Italy poses a significant risk to other EU countries
Take profit on the 'short US and Japanese stock market' strategy
24. February 2020
Germany: IFO survey shows no signs yet of 'coronavirus impact' - the survey was conducted before the latest outbreak in Italy - 'L-recovery' remains in the pipeline
21. February 2020
USA: Existing home sales report continues to show a robust housing market, which boosts consumer confidence - at least as long as the coronavirus stays at bay
Coronavirus outbreak: South Korean exports increase in February but the number of virus-infected jumps by 500% within a few days. Is Beijing's back-to-work strategy backfiring?
20. February 2020
Turkey: Consumer confidence declines in February close to the lowest level since 2009 despite aggressive monetary and fiscal easing
USA: Philadelphia Fed index skyrockets in February - six-month-outlook jumps
China: PBOC report shows a 'normal' rebound in monetary aggregates in January - but the trend remains weak. Aggressive monetary easing is in the pipeline
China: PBOC cuts policy rates but this will not make workers come back
19. February 2020
China: The risk of misinformation is on the rise as the main focus now is to restart the economy to strengthen a wing-shot 'core leader' in Beijing
Britain: Benign inflation, tight labour market and Boris Johnson's election victory boost business sentiment - The probability of 'significant' fiscal expansion boosted by Javid resignation
Japan: Machinery orders drop in December. The number of non-cruise-ship-related coronavirus cases has more than doubled within a few days
18. February 2020
USA: The absence, so far, of a dramatic increase in the number of virus-infected continues to support the ongoing rebound in manufacturing sentiment
Japan: The economy contracts sharply in the last quarter of 2019 as Tokyo struggles to contain the spread of the coronavirus
Germany: ZEW survey shows a steep decline in investor sentiment as the coronavirus outbreak appears to make an impact
Podcast interview with Klaus Anker Petersen, Brand House Holding, about Beijing's efforts to restart the economy, consequences for the global supply chain and not least new business opportunities created by the outbreak - recorded today [FREE ACCESS]
14. February 2020
There will be no updates on Monday - February 17
US retail sales report: A robust economy with a falling growth rate because of 'late-cycle bottle-necks'
China: Insightview reduces Q1 growth forecast again as anecdotal evidence shows slow upstart of production - podcast on Tuesday
Germany: The economy was flat in Q4 as corporate spending and consumption put a drag on growth. Headwinds in 2020 require a political response from a wing-shot Berlin
13. February 2020
France: Unemployment drops to the lowest level since 2008. Coronavirus outbreak poses a significant risk to millions of Chinese tourists visiting the country every year
USA: The fiscal deficit hitting a new record high, by courtesy of President Trump, makes the economy vulnerable
Sell a basket of the US and Japanese stock markets based on valuation and investors underestimating the global economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak
12. February 2020
Brazil's weak recovery is in jeopardy as the country's largest trading partner, China, has stalled
Euro-zone: Industrial output plunges in December - China's coronavirus outbreak could hit Euro-zone growth harder than currently assessed by the financial market
Germany: CDU's leadership faces 'mission impossible'. Berlin's reversal of the 'Thuringia decision' makes leeway for a far-left Minister-President
11. February 2020
USA: The NFIB small business sentiment survey continues to show a buoyant domestic economy - the labour market is tight and compensation is on the rise
10. February 2020
The Euro-zone faces more headwinds: Italy's industrial output plunges, and CDU party boss steps down making leeway to more turmoil at the political centre of Europe
China: The virus outbreak 'appears' close to a peak, but the macroeconomic consequences could prove to be huge. When is Beijing forced to declare the coronavirus outbreak 'secondary' and 'growth' primary?
7. February 2020
USA: A strong labour market report in January despite weak demand for workers in the ISM employment indexes. The rate of wage increases remains moderate
China: Steady foreign exchange reserves in January do not disguise a trend of a weakening FX position. The White House shows no signs of trade reconciliation
Germany: Manufacturing output plunges in December. 'China crisis' will create short-term problems, but the real issue is Berlin in disarray
6. February 2020
Germany: CDU and FDP have just done what many feared would happen sooner or later
The latest chart update of the coronavirus outbreak: New cases in China slows substantially but accelerates outside China. Why are there no cases in Africa?
Germany: Industrial orders plunge at the fastest annual rate since October 2009 ahead of the coronavirus outbreak
5. February 2020
USA: ISM service survey shows evidence of a 'moderate' rebound in growth in the first half of 2020 - assuming the 'coronavirus stays at bay'
USA: ADP Employment Report shows a steep jump in hiring in January
Euro-zone: Retail sales contracted in December. Households need a new driving factor in 2020 - and the coronavirus to stay away
China: Caixin PMI service index, the falling information value of Chinese statistics and the risk of a shortage of everyday basic commodities
4. February 2020
A short update on the latest coronavirus statistics - 'a little light at the end of the tunnel?'
Recorded web session: Web session meeting with onsite sources from Shanghai and Sichuan about what comes next - only available this week
3. February 2020
INVITATION - Web session meeting with onsite sources from Shanghai and Sichuan about what comes next. The economic, political and production impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Email the editor as soon as possible to register - February 4, 09:30 CET
USA: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back in line with the regional surveys. Households see new tailwinds 'sponsored' by problems abroad
Turkey: Inflation is on the rise as President Erdogan launches fiscal stimulus and monetary easing at the expense of price stability and the lira
Sweden: Manufacturing PMI index bounces back sharply, but the coronavirus outbreak makes this 'history' - for the time being
China: Weak Caixin PMI survey before the coronavirus outbreak - China has only a few 'pull factors' compared to 2003
31. January 2020
Weak Euro-zone growth in the last quarter of 2019. Italy's economy contracts, and Spain is the main growth contributor
China: National PMI survey provides little information about the future. 'March 1' is crucial for the global supply chain
France: The economy contracts in the last quarter of 2019 due to a significant drag from inventories. Real domestic demand remains robust
30. January 2020
USA: A sharp decline in imports was the main growth contributor in the last quarter of 2019. Also, corporate spending contracted
The coronavirus, the global supply chain and the world's response to China's nightmare
Euro-zone: The EU Commission's Business and Consumer Survey shows 'moderate optimism' shortly before the extent of the coronavirus outbreak was known
South Korea: Bank of Korea business survey shows a strong rebound in sentiment after plenty of fiscal and monetary stimulus. The country faces secular headwinds from adverse demographics
29. January 2020
France: Consumer confidence bounces back in January as President Macron's reform process has already made visible results
Italy: Business and consumer surveys herald flat or negative growth in 2020. Time is on the side of Matteo Salvini
Podcast interview (must-listen) with Steffen Schiottz-Christensen, IFU, in Chengdu, about the coronavirus impact, the consequences for the global supply chain and Jyllandsposten's cartoon - Anecdotal evidence from Sichuan [FREE ACCESS]
28. January 2020
USA: Consumer confidence jumps in January. Also, the Richmond Fed index skyrockets
Podcast interview with Anders Ellemann Kristensen in Beijing, General Manager, Albatros Travel China, about the coronavirus impact - Anecdotal evidence from Beijing [FREE ACCESS]
USA: Durable goods orders continue to show a weak underlying trend in corporate spending despite tax cuts
Spain: The quarterly unemployment rate hits the lowest level since 2008, but the best forward-looking indicators herald a significantly weak labour market in 2020
27. January 2020
USA: New home sales report disappoints in December despite low mortgage rates - but the housing market is expected to be strong in the first half of 2020
A short note on the Coronavirus outbreak: Beijing's efficient response to the outbreak poses, ironically, a significant risk to short-term growth. The next surprise might emerge outside China
Germany: IFO survey disappoints as service sentiment declines. Trade rhetoric from the White House warns about retaliation if carbon import tax is imposed on foreign products
23. January 2020
Turkey: Consumer confidence stays close to a record low despite aggressive monetary and fiscal easing. The lira is at risk
USA: Existing home sales report shows a buoyant housing market boosting households' wealth effect significantly by courtesy of the Federal Reserve
Japan: The December trade report shows no signs of an upcoming rebound. Nearly ten million Chinese tourists are suddenly a liability
A short note on the risk of a pandemic caused by a new strain of coronavirus in China - The difference from the Sars-outbreak in 2003
21. January 2020
2020 Outlook roadshow: There will be no or only delayed updates on January 22
Germany: Investor sentiment jumps, according to the January ZEW survey
Britain: The best forward-looking employment indicators show a 'less upbeat' rather than a 'downbeat' labour market
A short note on the new strain of coronavirus in China
20. January 2020
Taiwanese export orders report shows tentative signs of a meagre rebound in global and Chinese manufacturing activity
17. January 2020
USA: Housing starts skyrocket to the highest level since 2006 as tailwinds prevail
Britain: Retail sales disappointing big time in December raises the likelihood of negative growth in Q4. Fiscal stimulus measures are in the pipeline
China 'decides' to report the slowest growth rate since 1989. The underlying details should give rise for concern in Washington and Brussels
16. January 2020
USA: Strong third-quarter retail sales statistics as households barely see headwinds
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows tentative signs of bouncing back. This still needs to be reflected in the national ISM survey
Turkey: Ankara cuts policy rates aggressively at the same time as the fiscal deficit hits a new all-time high
China: House prices are even weaker than reflected in official statistics. The dark clouds remain on the horizon despite a 'fantastic' trade deal
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey fails to show a rebound in downbeat manufacturing sentiment despite US-China trade deal and fiscal stimulus measures
15. January 2020
USA: Manufacturing Empire State survey shows no evidence of a 'fantastic phase-one trade deal'
Euro-zone: A record high trade surplus with the United States provides more ammo to the next leg in the 'global trade war'
China: Trade report shows signs of stronger infrastructure spending - weak 'phase one' trade deal will only 'buy time'
13. January 2020
Britain: The economy shows signs of broad-based contraction in the last quarter of 2019. The outlook is deteriorating
France: A short note on the government's decision not to raise the retirement age
10. January 2020
USA: Employment report is neither too cold nor too hot, at least from the perspective of the Federal Reserve
Spain: Manufacturing output bounced back in November, but consumer confidence falls sharply in December. The left-wing coalition plans a reversal of the labour market reform
Iran scoring an own goal by shooting down a Ukrainian passenger plane weakens the case for Tehran
Global: The rebound in leading manufacturing indicators has so far been a huge disappointment. Policymakers are close to pressing the 'panic button' as 'zero growth' is not an option
7. January 2020
USA: ISM service headline index improves in December, but the underlying details remain weak
Euro-zone: Robust consumer spending bodes well for growth in the last quarter of 2019. Nonetheless, the outlook is less upbeat
A short note on John Bolton's offer to testify: The Democrats have nothing to lose
Sweden: PMI service survey shows lacklustre growth outlook - but the forecast for the Swedish currency remains positive
6. January 2020
Iran crisis: Trump won a pyrrhic victory, but the United States risks becoming the big loser while Beijing wisely stays out of the conflict
3. January 2020
USA: Disappointingly weak manufacturing ISM survey as 'fantastic' trade deal fails to boost sentiment. Production index plunges
The killing of Iran Revolutionary Guard commander could turn into a nightmare for President Trump who is not prepared for the next step in the conflict
Global macroeconomic update presentation focusing on the main drivers in 2020
2. January 2020
Sweden: Weak manufacturing PMI survey in December will not change the fact that low-public-sector-debt currencies will outperform in the first half of 2020
China: Weak PMI surveys underscore why Beijing is now on a path of more aggressive monetary easing. Financial repression gains the upper hand
20. December 2019
There will be no updates from December 23 until January 1, both days included, due to the Christmas holiday.
Germany: GfK survey shows a steep decline in households' income expectations as negative interest rates, perversely, boost the savings rate to the highest level since 2008
19. December 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey shows weak short-term demand but strong long-term demand
France: The broader business sentiment index remains buoyant, as President Macron still has the upper hand
18. December 2019
A short update on the euro against the US dollar. What escalating trade tensions in 2020 mean for the euro?
Germany: IFO index bounces back in December propelled by sentiment in the service sector. Manufacturing sector barely improves. Robert Lighthizer and China threaten Germany and the EU
17. December 2019
USA: Manufacturing output rose in November. What if the best short-term leading indicators were to bounce back sharply in January?
Britain: A robust labour market is on its last legs, but a recession is no longer part of the storyboard
USA: Homebuilder sentiment index jumps to the highest level since June 1999 as housing 'demand' benefits from an unusually accommodative monetary environment
16. December 2019
USA: Manufacturing Empire State index barely bounces back from an already low level, but the capital expenditure index jumps
China: House prices continue to increase at a slower pace as Beijing enters a path of monetary easing
China: Manufacturing output bounces back, but underlying details remain weak. Beijing 'bullying' raises fundamental questions overseas about the future relationship with China
13. December 2019
USA: November retail sales report disappoints, but consumer spending will remain robust in the first half of 2020
Anecdotal evidence from China: The economy remains weak and the leadership appears divided. Beijing needs, therefore, a trade deal more than ever before
A short note to the 'Torben Andersen podcast interview' - Why central banks are worried about the consequences of digital currencies
The primary lesson from Britain's national election: 'Stay away from the far-left' and show unity
12. December 2019
USA: Benign inflation environment in November. A tight labour market poses a much larger risk to price stability than import tariffs
Japan: Machinery orders plunge in October. Tokyo plans to launch fiscal stimulus measures equivalent to 2% of GDP
Podcast interview with Torben M Andersen, former chairman of the Danish Economic Council and the Welfare Commission, about whether QE has failed and, if so, 'what went wrong?' [FREE ACCESS]
11. December 2019
There will be no updates on December 11
10. December 2019
USA: Small business survey shows the highest share of respondents planning to raise wages since 1989
Germany: ZEW survey shows improving investor sentiment as both monetary and fiscal policy is expected to be accommodative in 2020; but the economy remains fragile
France: President Macron faces a decisive battle reminiscent of Prime Minister Thatcher's struggle with the miners in the 1980s
China: Soaring pork prices propel consumer price inflation to the highest level seen since 2011
9. December 2019
A short note on the US employment report: The labour force of 'needed' workers appears to have reached the upper limit
China: Trade details show Beijing is slowly turning towards 'classic' stimulus measures, as US-China relations are heading for long-term deterioration
6. December 2019
USA: Consumer confidence jumps as households see only tailwinds - even from the Federal Reserve
USA: Employment report shows a massive increase in new jobs although this was not enough to lure many more workers into the labour force
Germany: Manufacturing output drops at the fastest annual rate since November 2009
Japan: PM Abe's cabinet approves a huge fiscal stimulus package as real household spending takes a beating
5. December 2019
Euro-zone: Households are the main growth contributor, but households in Southern Europe could turn into a major drag on growth in 2020
Germany: Industrial orders decline by more than expected in October; 'big items' orders prevent an even sharper decline
4. December 2019
USA: ISM service index disappoints, but the underlying details are slightly less downbeat
USA: ADP Employment shows weak job creation in November. More weakness to come in Q1
Sweden: Service sentiment moves deeper into the contraction zone. The broader economy could contract in Q1
3. December 2019
Take profit in the 'long Swedish currency strategy'
Spain could be headed towards a significant increase in unemployment in 2020
2. December 2019
USA: Manufacturing ISM survey is a significant disappointment. No signs of a rebound in corporate spending
Sweden: PMI survey shows no signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector
Germany: SPD's new leadership will move the party further to the left and boost the probability of fiscal stimulus measures
China: PMI survey shows a rebound in business sentiment, but details and anecdotal evidence herald more weakness to come
29. November 2019
India: Economic growth drops to the slowest rate since Q1 2013
Sweden: Strong net-export in Q3 supports the economy. The properties of the currency are 'value' as well as 'cyclical'
Japan: Manufacturing output falls at the fastest annual rate since 2013 beyond what could be explained by a powerful typhoon
South Korea: Industrial production falls sharply in October. Business sentiment indicators 'appear' to have reached rock bottom, but a bumpy road ahead
28. November 2019
EU survey: Euro-zone sentiment showing broad-based improvement reduces the risk of recession in 2020, but the economy is still headed towards 'shallow growth'
Japan: Increasing household consumption before VAT hike leads to a sharp fall in retail sales in October. IMF urges Tokyo to raise VAT rate to 15%
27. November 2019
USA: Durable goods orders manage to increase in October but continue to contract on an annual basis
China: Industrial profit falls sharply in October. Economic growth is headed lower in 2020 without new stimulus measures
France: Consumer confidence jumps in November. Households expect unemployment to fall in the future
USA: Richmond Fed survey also shows contraction in corporate spending
26. November 2019
USA: Robust new home sales statistics show upbeat 'long-term' consumer sentiment
Sweden: Benign inflation at the factory gates but higher than in the Euro-zone. Why the next global downturn 'could' be different for the Swedish currency
Germany: Consumer sentiment improves as households see stronger short-term tailwinds, but financial repression erodes their future spending power
USA: Dallas Fed survey shows stabilisation in the manufacturing sector but also a steep decline in the capital expenditure plans index
25. November 2019
A short note on comments from Liu He evading the attention of the financial market
Germany: IFO survey shows no 'decisive' evidence of an upcoming rebound. Financial repression could hit households hard in 2020
By Invitation: Stealth leadership - Silence on key challenges at China's recent Central Committee meeting
22. November 2019
Germany: Q3 GDP details show a 'slightly stronger' underlying economy than reflected by the preliminary report
21. November 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed headline index concludes rock bottom in manufacturing sentiment, but details show a mixed picture
Turkey: Consumer confidence index bounces back but remains close to the lowest level since 2009
France: No further signs of weaker business sentiment. The positive impact of President Macron's reforms hits the shores, but the budget deficit is on the rise
20. November 2019
++There will only be delayed updates on Thursday, November 21++
Global trade: The latest statistics show no signs of an upcoming rebound
Germany: Prices at the factory gates move deeper into the contraction zone. Unions and employers call for a €450 billion infrastructure spending initiative
19. November 2019
China: The fiscal deficit in October hits the highest level seen in the last three decades. Beijing has few options left
A short note on the US dollar and the euro: Diverging central bank balance sheets erode support for a fundamentally overvalued US dollar
18. November 2019
A short note on Hong Kong, US-China trade negotiations and the 'leaked documents'
15. November 2019
USA: Weak industrial output will keep the Federal Reserve on a path of 'quantitative easing' - more manufacturing weakness 'beyond GM' is in the pipeline
USA: Household spending is losing momentum, according to the October retail sales report, but consumers still see more tailwinds than headwinds
Euro-zone: The trade surplus with the United States hits a new all-time high
China: 'Second-hand' house price statistics show weakness. Beijing faces a dilemma
14. November 2019
Turkey: Industrial output makes a sharp rebound. Falling inflation makes leeway for more rate cuts
Japan: Weak Q3 GDP growth because 'front-loading' of private consumption was absent despite a hike in the value-added-tax rate
Germany: The economy escapes 'technical recession' but weakness in the auto sector could soon hit the service sector
China: Beijing faces economic headwinds, which are not within the range of the 'new normal'
13. November 2019
USA: Benign inflation continues to boost households' real purchasing power. Fiscal and monetary policy remains accommodative late in the business cycle
A short note on the swine fever in China: Why the outbreak worries Beijing as price pressure boost other food prices. Swine fever is spreading to other places around the world
Britain: Declining inflation maintains a robust rise in households' real spending power, but the best for households is coming to an end
The corporate sector created a supply chain based on costs optimisation. The price of rising 'political diversification' will add upward pressure on inflation further down the road
12. November 2019
Germany: ZEW survey bounces back, but the growth outlook remains weak
USA: Small business sentiment index increases in October as the job market remains buoyant
India: Manufacturing output plunges at the fastest rate since 2011. Moody's downgrades credit rating as the country 'is undergoing a significant slowdown'
11. November 2019
Britain: Manufacturing output contracts, but PM Johnson headed for a huge election victory in December provides some light at the end of the tunnel
China: Aggressive monetary policy easing is needed, but this is not possible in the current environment of a possible 'trade deal' and soaring food price inflation
China: Swine fever propels consumer price inflation to the highest level since 2012. Producer prices move deeper into the deflation zone
8. November 2019
USA: Consumer confidence is barely changed in November at an elevated level. The unanswered question is whether there is a Sino-US deal or not?
Germany: September trade statistics show signs of stabilisation, but no signs yet of an upcoming rebound
China: October report shows a more benign decline in foreign trade, but imports from the United States hit the lowest level since 2012
7. November 2019
Germany: Manufacturing output plunges at the fastest rate since October 2012. More weakness to come, according to IFO
A 'harmonious' Sino-US relationship? Sustainable? If so, who benefits?
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey - Manufacturing and service sentiment plunges in November - Bank of Japan ponders new monetary measures
6. November 2019
Spain: The economy is losing momentum. Industrial output is forecast to contract in the first half of 2020
Germany: Non-Euro-zone orders boost industrial orders as Economic Council lowers the 2020 forecast to below 1%
5. November 2019
USA: Service ISM index bounces back propelled by improving news flow. Nonetheless, the growth outlook remains weak, according to the combined surveys
USA: The trade deficit falls at the same time as manufacturers assess inventories to be too high. The deficit with the EU hit a new all-time high
China: The domestic economy is much weaker than reflected by 'upbeat sentiment' in the financial market. Beijing is 'cornered' by soaring pork prices
4. November 2019
USA: Factory orders decline again in September. More to come in the coming months, but the Federal Reserve managing to steepen the yield curve gives rise for some short-term optimism
Germany: Angela Merkel and her successor, AKK, are under siege within the CDU. The coalition government in Berlin is at risk
Switzerland: Consumer confidence plunges to the lowest level since 2009 as workers do not benefit from the recovery but feel the pain from the downturn
Unwind short-European-stock-market recommendation
1. November 2019
USA: A meagre rebound in manufacturing sentiment is a disappointment considering that the trade conflict has been 'solved'
USA: Robust labour market report is a function of growth in the past three months. The best forward-looking employment indicators herald weakness in the first half of 2020
Japan: The unemployment rate increases and the leading employment indicator deteriorates again in September
31. October 2019
Euro-zone: The economy is headed towards shallow growth. ECB President Lagarde accuses Germany and the Netherlands of sitting on their hands
China: PMI surveys support anecdotal evidence of a weak economy, as companies and households are aware of economic headwinds beyond a 'fantastic' trade deal with the USA
30. October 2019
USA: Private consumption fuels, as usual, economic growth in the third quarter. The best leading indicators herald significantly weaker growth
Euro-zone: Sentiment deteriorates across the board, but 'recession' is still not part of the equation, according to the survey
Italy's Matteo Salvini patiently waits for disillusioned voters to come to him. The strategy could prove highly successful in 2020
France: Q3 GDP report shows moderate growth sponsored by government spending. No signs of 'recession' but Paris has no fiscal ammo left
29. October 2019
USA: 'Lagging' consumer sentiment remains at an elevated level, but combined ISM indexes herald employment contraction in Q1
Spain: Consumer spending remains robust and sentiment remains high, although the country is heading for another national election. Far-right Vox Party is expected to see a sharp increase in support
France: Consumer confidence stays at an elevated level. Nonetheless, Paris and the rest of Europe are headed towards a long period of subdued growth
28. October 2019
Germany: Thuringia state election is yet another defeat to Chancellor Merkel. The far-left and far-right gain strongly
USA: Budget deficit soars as the White House's economic plan derails. Defence spending jumps
25. October 2019
Germany: IFO survey did not show further weakness, but the economy remains in the contraction zone
24. October 2019
USA: New home sales report disappoints in September, but still no signs of recession
USA: Durable goods orders report shows no signs yet of a decisive turnaround in corporate spending
Turkey: Russia and President Trump make leeway for a substantial rate cut. More to come as Moscow and Beijing provide Ankara with a life jacket
South Korea: Private investments put a drag on Q3 growth. Fiscal expansion and more rate cuts in the pipeline
23. October 2019
France: The repercussion of Germany's economic weakness is slowly impacting the rest of Europe. French manufacturing sentiment drops to the lowest level since March 2015
By Invitation: China's Corporate Social Credit System - Level Playing Field or Forced Digital Hand?
22. October 2019
USA: The Federal Reserve continues to sponsor the housing market. Existing home prices rose at the fastest rate since January 2018
Britain: CBI Industrial Trends survey predicts an 'unavoidable' recession 
21. October 2019
Taiwanese export orders and South Korean October trade data show no signs yet of an upcoming rebound