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29. October 2019
Spain: Consumer spending remains robust and sentiment remains high, although the country is heading for another national election. Far-right Vox Party is expected to see a sharp increase in support
France: Consumer confidence stays at an elevated level. Nonetheless, Paris and the rest of Europe are headed towards a long period of subdued growth
28. October 2019
Germany: Thuringia state election is yet another defeat to Chancellor Merkel. The far-left and far-right gain strongly
USA: Budget deficit soars as the White House's economic plan derails. Defence spending jumps
25. October 2019
Germany: IFO survey did not show further weakness, but the economy remains in the contraction zone
24. October 2019
USA: New home sales report disappoints in September, but still no signs of recession
USA: Durable goods orders report shows no signs yet of a decisive turnaround in corporate spending
Turkey: Russia and President Trump make leeway for a substantial rate cut. More to come as Moscow and Beijing provide Ankara with a life jacket
South Korea: Private investments put a drag on Q3 growth. Fiscal expansion and more rate cuts in the pipeline
23. October 2019
France: The repercussion of Germany's economic weakness is slowly impacting the rest of Europe. French manufacturing sentiment drops to the lowest level since March 2015
By Invitation: China's Corporate Social Credit System - Level Playing Field or Forced Digital Hand?
22. October 2019
USA: The Federal Reserve continues to sponsor the housing market. Existing home prices rose at the fastest rate since January 2018
Britain: CBI Industrial Trends survey predicts an 'unavoidable' recession 
21. October 2019
Taiwanese export orders and South Korean October trade data show no signs yet of an upcoming rebound
China: House price inflation continues to slow. Beijing still sits on its hands - but for how long?
Podcast interview with Steffen Jensen, Danish TV2's Middle East correspondent, about yet another crisis in Syria, European hypocrisy, Africa, and the risk of a new migrant crisis
18. October 2019
China: Growth hits the lowest level since 1992 as reluctant policymakers consider new measures. Aggressive money-printing is not possible as long as the trade negotiations are 'successful'
17. October 2019
USA: Industrial production contracted in September. The downturn in the manufacturing sector will accelerate in the coming months, according to the ISM survey
USA - Philadelphia Fed survey: A decline in the headline index disguises strong underlying details
Britain: Retail sales are holding up well considering strong political headwinds, but the economy is losing momentum. Prime Minister Johnson cannot afford to show weakness in the Brexit negotiations
16. October 2019
USA: Retail sales report disappoints in September, but private consumption will still make a robust contribution to Q3 GDP growth
South Korea: The Bank of Korea cuts policy rates as the economy faces deflation
China: Credit expansion is far too weak to support the economy. Yet another failed trade deal will fundamentally change the situation
15. October 2019
Germany: ZEW survey continues to show gloomy investor sentiment. Europe faces significant geopolitical risks
USA: Manufacturing Empire State survey shows signs of stabilising sentiment at a low level. The White House needs a new 'external enemy': Europe
China: Producer prices move deeper into the 'deflation zone'. Consumer price inflation boosted by a 69.3% increase in pork prices
14. October 2019
Euro-zone: Industrial output contracts but consumers are still supporting the economy. Nonetheless, the union faces several headwinds
Yet another disappointing China-USA trade deal, buying time for Beijing: The NBA case shows the flip side of having a significant exposure to China. The next challenge: the corporate social credit system
China: September trade report shows no signs of a rebound in global trade. Beijing could soon turn more hawkish towards Washington
11. October 2019
USA: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index jumps back in line with the Conference Board consumer confidence index
India: Manufacturing output declines at the fastest rate since February 2013
Disruptive forces: The European Union faces the risk of a new migration wave as the conditions for the 'perfect storm' are building in the Middle East and North Africa
10. October 2019
Britain: Manufacturing output drops in August. The best leading indicators herald the steepest decline in output since 2009 in the coming months
Germany: Exports fell sharply in August. No signs of improvement as auto exporters face global cyclical headwinds and technology disruption
A short note on the China-USA trade negotiations: President Xi Jinping too close to the 'losing-face zone' poses a significant risk to the financial market
Japan: Machinery orders fall sharply as the aftermath of 'Abenomics' emerges. Also, a short note on the China-USA trade negotiations
9. October 2019
Australia: Consumer sentiment plunges to the lowest level since 2015
USA: Federal Reserve officially 'opts' again for balance sheet expansion even though this already started two months ago
8. October 2019
USA: Small business sentiment declines but remains at an elevated level. The job market tightens
A short note: The highly symbolic NBA-Beijing conflict shows the corporate risks attached to the Chinese market. These risks are not priced into the stock market
EU, Rome and Berlin face the risk of a new migration wave as the conditions for the 'perfect storm' are building in the Middle East and North Africa
Germany: Industrial output surprises to the upside in August, but the outlook remains grim. Berlin faces the risk of a new migration wave
Japan: The headline index in the Economy Watcher survey jumps while the 'future outlook index' plunges
7. October 2019
Japan downgrades growth forecast to 'worsening', which is usually associated with 'recession'
Germany: Domestic demand pulls industrial orders down in August. IFO survey heralds more weakness to come
4. October 2019
USA: The economy shows robust job growth but the forward-looking indicators herald significantly lower growth
When 'cutting corners' is no longer an efficient policy option
3. October 2019
USA: The service sector is headed in the same direction as the manufacturing sector. The Federal Reserve will turn significantly more dovish
Turkey: Another sharp decline in inflation boosts the likelihood of more rate cuts. President Erdogan faces increasing dissent within the AKP
Sweden: A shockingly weak service survey should give rise to more concern across Europe as most countries are now left without ammo
2. October 2019
USA: ADP Employment Report shows weak job creation in the manufacturing sector. Tomorrow's ISM survey will show whether this is spreading to the service sector
The risk of Chinese intervention in Hong Kong will increase sharply shortly after the anniversary celebrations in Beijing
Japan: Consumer confidence falls sharply as households fail to benefit from Abenomics. The risk of a deteriorating 'global perception' of the global economic situation
1. October 2019
There will be only delayed updates on October 1
USA: ISM manufacturing sentiment moves deeper into recession territory. The headline index hits the lowest level since June 2009
Sweden: Manufacturing sentiment falls sharply into the recession zone. Export orders index plunges
30. September 2019
Euro-zone unemployment rate declines to the lowest level since May 2008 at the same time as industrial sentiment plunges
Japan: Industrial output falls sharply in August, as global manufacturing sentiment continues to weaken. South Korean exports in September declined at the fastest pace since July 2009
China: Caixin manufacturing index bounces back, but there is no anecdotal evidence of stronger growth. Capital outflow is on the rise
Unplugged 'Travel Notes' from China: No signs of a growth rebound, but still plenty of opportunities although the low-hanging fruits are gone
19. September 2019
China trip: There will be no updates on September 20 and September 23-27 - Delayed updates on October 1
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey indicates robust short-term growth, but a sharp decline in the  'long-term' indicator closes the gap to a flat yield curve
USA: The Federal Reserve fails to fulfil excessive rate cut expectations in the financial market. Money market volatility gives rise to 'some concern'
18. September 2019
USA: Housing starts and permits skyrocketing to the highest level since 2007 raise new doubt about the Federal Reserve's dovish stance
Italy headed towards recession will propel Salvini back into power in 2020. Renzi abandons the Democratic Party and starts a new party
Japan: No signs yet of a rebound in foreign trade - Exports drop by 8.2% year-on-year in August
17. September 2019
USA: Industrial output surprises to the upside in August but the outlook heralds significant weakness
China: House price inflation declines in August. Beijing will do 'whatever it takes' to avoid asset price deflation but the situation is more complicated today
16. September 2019
USA: Empire State survey shows no signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector. Corporate spending plans plunge in September
A short note on the impact of the drone attacks in Saudia Arabia
China: Weak economic statistics underscore that Beijing underestimates the power of headwinds
13. September 2019
USA: Solid retail sales as households still see no major headwinds. It will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to fulfil excessive rate cut expectations
USA: The Federal Reserve should not listen to the 'turncoat' - Historically low real bond yields, the federal budget deficit jumps and core inflation hits the highest level since 2008
12. September 2019
ECB cuts the deposit rate by ten basis points as Mario Draghi has come too far away from the shore from where he came
Japan: Reuters Tankan manufacturing index falls sharply in September as the growth outlook continues to deteriorate
11. September 2019
USA: Core producer inflation rose in August. The Federal Reserve is still lured into cutting policy rates in September
China: Monetary statistics show that Beijing is forced to act more aggressively in 2020. The yuan will continue to suffer
China: Beijing is 'forced' to scrap the QFII quota system as it needs to reduce the risk of capital outflow caused by more aggressive monetary easing
USA: The departure of a hawkish John Bolton leaves US foreign policy in the hands of a turncoat
10. September 2019
USA: Small business sentiment declines in August but remains strong. Labour shortage hits a new record high
Italy: The economic downturn combined with a new government coalition creates the foundation for stronger support for the League in 2020
China: Soaring pork prices keep consumer price inflation in positive territory. A weak economy moves PPI prices deeper into the contraction zone. More yuan depreciation in the pipeline as QE seems highly likely
9. September 2019
Britain: The outlook for manufacturers remains weak. Chancellor Sajid Javid 'signals an end to fiscal discipline'
Germany: Exports surprise to the upside in July, but the outlook remains weak. Imports contract. Fiscal expansion is required but 'without hurting the climate', according to a majority of voters
China: Exports to the United States plunge by more than 15%. A reluctant Beijing will be forced to launch aggressive monetary easing
6. September 2019
USA: Employment report shows a mixed picture. The labour force jumps as workers see job opportunities in a tight labour market
China cuts banks' reserve requirements; a reluctant Beijing will be forced to launch 'QE with Chinese characteristics'
Japan: The Diffusion Index shows a grim growth outlook in the next six months. Tokyo can only bet on aggressive monetary stimulus measures in China. Beijing might soon opt for such an outcome 
Germany: Manufacturing output falls sharply in July. Berlin will respond, but the response will come too slowly and too little
5. September 2019
USA: ISM service index jumps in August but the employment index plunges to the lowest level since March 2017
USA: ADP employment report continues to show a strong, but 'lagging', labour market benefiting from a robust economy in the past
Germany: Industrial orders fall sharply in July. More weakness to come according to the IFO survey. Is Chancellor Merkel present?
4. September 2019
USA: Trade deficit with China continues to decline but increases against the EU. Imports and exports are headed towards the steepest decline since 2009
Europe: The monetary experiment is running out of control; the credibility of fiat money is eroding
Euro-zone retail sales report is still in line with robust consumer spending in the third quarter of 2019
Australia: A weak Q2 GDP report considering that secular demographic tailwind prevails. More rate cuts are in the pipeline
3. September 2019
USA: ISM survey shows an increased risk of recession in the manufacturing sector
Brazil: President Bolsonaro is slowly turning into a 'liability' as his political base of support crumbles
Europe: A deteriorating labour market is the 'missing factor' in the 'game plan' of political parties on the far right and left. The 'missing factor' is on the horizon!
Turkey: Inflation falling sharply in August will animate Ankara to cut policy rates more in the near future
2. September 2019
Sweden: Manufacturing business sentiment stabilises in August. A change in the policy mix makes the Swedish currency look 'slightly more attractive'
Germany: State elections in Brandenburg and Sachsen create 'relief' in Berlin despite skyrocketing support to AfD. The reaction is yet another policy-mistake made by Berlin
China's official manufacturing PMI index stays in the contraction zone. The 'real picture' is worse than reflected by the 'leading' PMI surveys
30. August 2019
Spain: Retail sales jump in July. The growth outlook improves markedly, according to the leading business surveys
Switzerland: Unchanged KOF headline index still attaches a high probability to the outcome of 'recession'
Japan: Industrial output bounces back, but retail sales plunge. Overall outlook deteriorates rapidly, according to the best forward-looking surveys
29. August 2019
EU Commission survey surprises to the upside, but the labour market is deteriorating, according to Euro-zone households, not least in Germany 
Japan: Consumer confidence declines to the lowest level since April 2015; the share of households expecting inflation above 2 per cent increases to a new high
28. August 2019
Euro-zone: Monetary aggregates expand at a much faster rate than expected, but available liquidity is not used to the same extent
Italy: The economy moves deeper into the 'recession zone'. A PD-M5S government coalition will offer Salvini a huge election victory in 2020
USA: Regional Fed surveys show companies are having second thoughts about investment plans
27. August 2019
USA: Conference Board's consumer confidence index jumps in August - the share of respondents seeing plentiful-of-jobs hits the highest level since September 2000
France: Upbeat business and consumer sentiment shows 'decoupling' from the 'weakest link', Germany, at least for the time being
Germany: Q2 GDP details show significant growth contraction from net-exports and 'positive' contribution from higher inventories
26. August 2019
USA: Durable goods orders report fails to show the 'expected' benefit of President Trump's corporate tax cuts
A short note on the Chinese currency: Yuan weakness 'despite' and not 'because of' Beijing
Germany: IFO survey heralds a deep recession in the second half of 2019 or going into 2020. Fiscal stimulus measures will come but far too slowly as Merkel remains 'Chancellor of inaction'
23. August 2019
USA: Robust July new home sales report after June number was revised up, but Federal Reserve' bias remains towards monetary easing
22. August 2019
Britain: CBI retailer sentiment index plunges to the lowest level since 2008; 'Boris Johnson effect' remains highly visible in the latest opinion poll
21. August 2019
USA: A robust housing market remains the 'missing factor' in the forecast of recession in 2020 as external shocks continue to support domestic demand
Aggressive fiscal stimulus measures would be the solution to everything 'if' the perverse argument of 'demography' is really the main factor behind negative bond yields - but it is not!
A short note on a weak 'China proxy' - 'The first-20-days' South Korean trade report continues to show weakness
20. August 2019
Taiwan: 'Mainland proxy' shows tentative signs that the 'downturn' might no longer be accelerating
Germany: Benign inflation and 'recession' make leeway for fiscal and monetary stimulus measures
19. August 2019
Japan: Sentiment plunges across the board, according to the Reuters Tankan survey
16. August 2019
USA: A sharp decline in consumer sentiment should give rise to some concern at the Federal Reserve, but households are still exposed to more tailwinds than headwinds
USA: A mixed housing market report, but falling mortgage rates will boost future activity. Skyrocketing refinancing supports existing homeowners
Turkey: Industrial output drops sharply. President Erdogan 'readjusts' his views to make new friends in Beijing
15. August 2019
USA: Manufacturing output contracts in July; more to come in the coming months but there are no signs yet of a 'collapse'
USA: Surprisingly strong manufacturing Philadelphia Fed survey. Retail sales jump as households benefit from low inflation, interest rates and a strong labour market
A short note on a flat US yield curve: A few missing factors are still needed to forecast a 'serious economic downturn'
China's highly regulated house prices see support from tier-2 and tier-3 cities, but oversupply is on the rise 
14. August 2019
Euro-zone Q2 GDP report: Germany and Italy are the two weakest links. Chancellor Merkel is slowly recognising the need for fiscal stimulus measures
Britain: Elevated price and wage inflation makes monetary policy a delicate balancing act for the Bank of England as 'recession' in 2020 is highly likely
Japan: Strong hard data, but soft data show a sharp deterioration in the growth outlook
China: Economic activity slowed significantly in July, but Beijing gets help from Trump blinking when the going gets tough
13. August 2019
USA: Small business sentiment bounces back and stays at an elevated level. Labour shortage hits an all-time high
Germany: ZEW index plunges in August to the lowest level since 2011 as the risk of recession increases dramatically
USA: Budget deficit soars despite robust nominal GDP growth in 2019 and 2018. 'Necessary' boost in defence spending will further inflate the deficit
12. August 2019
China: Monetary statistics still show no signs of panicking policy-makers. Beijing is too confident about the future
Germany: The economy slows rapidly ahead of crucial state elections in East Germany. Berlin is poised to launch aggressive fiscal stimulus measures
Podcast interview with Philip Christian Ulrich, Kongressen.com, about why 'America First' is here to stay - with or without the re-election of President Trump
A summary of the last two turbulent weeks of political and economic events
27. July 2019
There will be no updates from July 29 to August 9 due to vacation
26. July 2019
USA: Robust Q2 GDP report was stronger than outlined by the headline number. Real domestic demand jumped in Q2
Italy is going nowhere after Rome chose the line of least resistance. 'Fools' are forced to finance Rome
A short note on the after-effect of the IFO survey: 'Germany Not in Crisis Nor Mulling Stimulus'
25. July 2019
USA: The Federal Reserve has already made its decision with or without a better-than-expected durable goods orders report
South Korea: The economy is much weaker than reflected by the headline growth number in the Q2 GDP report
Spain: The unemployment rate hits the lowest level since 2008. Political mess is no problem as long as politicians do not take any decisions
Germany: IFO expectations index drops to the lowest level since July 2009. Service sector moves into a 'downswing'
24. July 2019
Euro-zone: ECB can only bet on a weaker euro. The current high real ten-year bond yield differential supports such a strategy
What the UN 2019 Population Projection says about the future - Presentation
France: Manufacturing and service sentiment surveys herald moderately slower growth. President Macron's next fight is with the greens trying to conquer the political centre
23. July 2019
USA: Existing home sales disappoint, but the monetary environment remains supportive
Britain: Manufacturing sentiment plunges to the lowest level since April 2010
22. July 2019
Taiwan: Weak export orders report is more evidence of a weak mainland economy
19. July 2019
USA: University of Michigan consumer survey continues to show upbeat households as they see no significant headwinds - and definitely not monetary headwind
Germany: Inflation at the factory gates falls sharply in June despite increasing labour costs
18. July 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey raises doubt about the credibility of the Federal Reserve. The short and long-term indicators jump. Employment index hits an all-time high
South Korea finally cuts policy rates as the country faces headwinds from all directions
Japan: Trade statistics show no signs of a rebound. Inventories are on the rise
17. July 2019
USA: Housing starts report disappoints in June, but the outlook remains upbeat according to the latest homebuilder survey
16. July 2019
USA: Very strong retail sales report discredits Fed Chairman Powell. This could turn into a significant policy mistake if manufacturing sentiment were to bounce back as well 
ZEW survey shows growing concern among investors regarding the extent of headwinds facing the German economy
Britain: The first profound impact of Brexit hits the shore, according to the June labour market report. The risk of recession in 2020 is on the rise
Brussels missed an opportunity to become a global player matching its size
15. July 2019
USA: Empire State manufacturing index bounces back in July after Fed Chairman Powell was 'bullied' into easing monetary policy
China: House price inflation slows as policymakers maintain tightening measures in the housing market
Chinese growth declined in the second quarter to the lowest level since the early 1990s
12. July 2019
USA: Producer price inflation remains benign despite import tariffs
China: Monetary statistics show no signs yet of aggressive easing measures
China: The June trade report pictures a weak economy. Trump is not rewarded by the Chinese to the extent 'promised by Beijing'
11. July 2019
USA: Core inflation increases as Fed Chairman Powell talks about a rate cut despite a soaring fiscal deficit
Turkey records a minor current account surplus as domestic demand has collapsed. The central bank governor is fired and close allies of President Erdogan are leaving the AK Party
10. July 2019
The French economy stands out from the crowd, but the Euro-zone's main growth engine is still down
Food for thought: In the past, inflation and higher interest rates created downturns. Today, are low interest rates creating the foundation for the next downturn?
China: Producer prices falling into the deflation zone indicates no signs of a manufacturing rebound
9. July 2019
USA: Small business sentiment declines after a strong rebound in the previous months. NFIB survey continues to show a very tight labour market
Japan: Nominal and real wages continue to contract despite historically low unemployment. The risk of recession is still high
8. July 2019
China's foreign exchange reserves stabilise, but for all the wrong reasons
Germany: A minor rebound in manufacturing activity in May does not change a gloomy outlook
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Sorensen from the Institute for Strategy at the Royal Danish Defence College about a wide range of global foreign policy issues linked to the Rise of China
5. July 2019
USA: Robust June labour market report rules out July rate cut
Germany: Industrial orders fall sharply as there are no signs of a rebound in demand. All factors point to a weak euro
4. July 2019
Euro-zone: Consumer spending disappoints in May despite cyclical tailwinds
3. July 2019
USA: Service sentiment index continues lower. The orders index falls sharply
Podcast interview with Morten Springborg, Thematic Specialist, about tech competition between China and the West, splinternet, 5G and how strong China's tech sector really is
Podcast interview with Casper Wichmann, China tech expert, about tech competition between China and the West, splinternet, 5G and how strong China's tech sector really is
A short note about the EU's top jobs decision: Compromise candidate Ursula von der Leyen is more political inaction. Christine Lagarde keeps the ECB Italian-French
China: Caixin service index declines. Anecdotal evidence of a much weaker economy
1. July 2019
There will be no 'daily macro' updates on July 2
USA: Manufacturing ISM index declines in June although less than market expectations. More worryingly, the ISM orders index fell again sharply
A short note on whether Huawei is a security or a commercial risk. The credibility of President Trump suffered significantly after the G-20 meeting
Bank of Japan Tankan survey shows more weakness than reflected in the monthly surveys; consumer confidence falls sharply in June
China: June PMI index stays in the contraction zone in spite of economic stimulus measures;  Xi Jinping and Donald Trump kick the can down the road, but $250 billion import tariffs remain
28. June 2019
Spain: Rajoy's economic reforms continue boosting growth despite a political mess. Europe turning left will soon dent fiscal credibility
Swiss economic indicators show an increased risk of a technical recession later in 2019; a harbinger of slower Euro-zone growth
Japan: Industrial production rose strongly in June despite extended Golden Week holidays
27. June 2019
EU survey: Euro-zone economic sentiment falls sharply in June; export downturn accelerates