20. January 2023
19. January 2023
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows tentative signs of a 'possible' rock bottom in the manufacturing sector in March or April. Goods price deflation remains strong
Britain: The RICS survey shows a steep decline in house prices in an environment of elevated conventional inflation. The scope for a 'soft landing' is far too narrow for central banks to succeed
18. January 2023
USA: Factory gates inflation will prevail in the first few months of 2023, but service price inflation will stay elevated in H2
Japan: 'The last man is still standing' - but for how long?
Podcast: China after COVID - What does Beijing want - and what does it mean for us? [language: Danish]
17. January 2023
Britain: A tight labour market creates the foundation for higher policy rates. Low energy prices make leeway for a rebound in consumer sentiment
China: A 'miracle' has happened! The economy did not contract in Q4 despite a collapsing housing market and consumer sentiment. Really?
16. January 2023
Japan: Producer price inflation hits the highest since 1980, as the Bank of Japan's policy is finally coming to an end
China: Falling house prices and a weak economy underscore why Beijing suddenly shows a 'friendly face' to the rest of the world - but for how long?
13. January 2023
USA: Consumer sentiment bounces back as short-term inflation expectations decline. This will support the narrative of a 'soft landing', although this will prove to be no more than a false dawn
EU: Sweden's inflation rate jumps to the highest since 1991. Short-term tailwinds will be followed by headwinds from Q2 and beyond because European central banks will stay the course
12. January 2023
USA: Headline inflation declines due to goods price deflation - but service price inflation jumps, which is terrible news
China: Benign inflation in December, but Beijing U-turns will make the country inflationary in 2023. Xi Jinping is under heavy political pressure after one failed policy after another
11. January 2023
USA: NFIB small business survey shows slower growth and falling inflation. The Federal Reserve narrative now competes with the 'soft landing theme'
9. January 2023
There will be no updates on January 10
Eurozone: The labour market remains very tight. The ECB will stay the course, but a 'soft US landing scenario' will gain the upper hand in the financial in the short run
6. January 2023
USA: ISM service survey provides a 'growth shock' in December - although this is in line with the best early-leading indicators
USA: Robust employment growth and moderate wage increases in December - but the Federal Reserve stays the course with the unemployment rate close to a record low
Eurozone: EU survey shows a steep decline in households' inflation expectations - and more optimism regarding the labour market. 'Good' news - but not for the ECB - and core inflation jumps in December
Germany: Industrial orders plunged in November due to falling foreign demand. Tentative signs of a 'local bottom' in Q2, but two main factors will create headwinds in 2023
5. January 2023
USA: ADP Employment Report shows the economic slowdown is too insignificant to increase unemployment - meaning higher policy rates for longer
Japan: Consumer confidence increases marginally, but a record 64% of households see inflation above 5%. BOJ tightening is coming sooner rather than later
4. January 2023
USA: ISM survey shows price deflation prevails in the manufacturing sector - but the Jolts survey shows a strong labour market
A short note on Germany's import prices report: A steep decline in headline inflation in Q1 will be reinforced by falling energy prices
3. January 2023
Germany: Inflation declines sharply in December as 'demand destruction' and 'positive climate change' pull energy prices lower
Eurozone: More signs of a too tight labour market for comfort from ECB's perspective
Euro-zone inflation will fall significantly in the short run, but the 'monetary normalisation 'process will continue. The Bank of Japan's U-turn poses a significant risk to EU and US bonds
2. January 2023
China: First, the zero-policy Omicron strategy killed the economy. Now, Beijing's new Omicron narrative triggers a clumsy reopening of the economy. Consequence: A sharp decline in the PMI indexes
20. December 2022
The last day for updates is on December 20. Insightview will be back on January 3, 2023
Japan: The Japanese central bank is now caught in its own spin and a monetary policy that has only benefited the few. The U-turn will have significant global ramifications
Podcast interview: What will happen in 2023?
19. December 2022
Germany: IFO survey continues to bounce back - but the economy still faces more headwinds than tailwinds in 2023
16. December 2022
Eurozone: The consequences of the ECB transforming into the 'Bundesbank' will have a significant impact. How much will bond yields increase in the Eurozone?
15. December 2022
ECB President Lagarde's handling of market expectations poses a considerable risk to financial market stability
China: The downbeat November statistics underscore why 'fighting Covid' is dangerous for Xi Jinping, the Communist Party and the economy - and in that order
14. December 2022
Britain: A long-overdue decline in inflation will not change the Bank of England's policy towards more tightening
Insights from China: Xi Jinping policy 'is like throwing a dice'
13. December 2022
USA: Goods prices pull inflation lower while service inflation increases. The labour market is now more than ever the critical factor for future monetary policy
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey shows tentative signs of upcoming labour market weakness, but 'price plans' bounce back
Australia: Business sentiment slows, and capex in the mining sector remains weak despite strong secular 'tailwinds' for commodities
12. December 2022
China: Is Beijing on the road towards launching aggressive stimulus measures?
The daily weather forecast is now the most critical factor for the European economy. This is not a healthy foundation for the corporate sector in the long run
11. December 2022
Podcast: Another postcard from Chengdu - 'All of a sudden, Covid is no longer dangerous'
9. December 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation slows - but the next leg up, service inflation, may gain the upper hand in February
China: Does Beijing's U-turn mean more 'change of mind' in the pipeline?
8. December 2022
The European housing market: The decline in house prices accelerates - and central banks are not in a position to come to the rescue
7. December 2022
China: The opening-up measures aim to put a lid on the 'pressure from the mob' - and reduce the risk of a colour revolution
6. December 2022
Germany: 'Big items' boosts industrial orders in October, but the economy faces unprecedented headwinds in 2023
5. December 2022
USA: ISM service survey underscores that the Federal Reserve has plenty of work to do in the first half of 2023. 'Mind the gap!'
2. December 2022
USA: The November employment report underscores that the risk of second-round inflation will not disappear without a significant increase in unemployment
Germany: A sharp decline in import and producer prices will continue adding downward pressure on consumer price inflation to the range of 6% to 7% - but the same factors will add upward pressure from February
1. December 2022
USA: ISM manufacturing index declines into the 'contraction zone' - as predicted by the Philadelphia Fed survey for some time now
Germany: Retail sales plunged in October despite falling energy prices - and now energy prices are again on the rise, triggering 'postponed price increases'
Japan: Consumer confidence drops as households' inflation expectations hit a new all-time high. The labour market tightens markedly
30. November 2022
Eurozone: Headline inflation finally declines as expected, but core inflation increases - and now winter is coming
China: PMI survey shows Beijing is caught between a rock and a hard place - due to self-inflicted problems. Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin has died
29. November 2022
Eurozone: EU Commission survey shows falling inflation pressure - and improving economic sentiment - but a fragile energy infrastructure will create inflation pressure for years to come
Podcast interview with China expert Joergen Delman: Is there more than just Covid that has triggered the protests in China?
Sweden: The NIER survey heralds economic contraction and elevated inflation pressure for longer - despite falling prices in the coming months
28. November 2022
Eurozone: Monetary aggregates show a slowing economy - and a tighter liquidity situation. Investors will demand positive real bond yields as the ECB is no longer the buyer of last resort
The protests in China: The generational clash - or the conflict between the 'old-fashioned' Communist Party on the one side and the well-educated middle class and the young generation on the other side
25. November 2022
Japan: Tokyo inflation hits the highest since 1982 - and wage pressure is rising. Yen appreciation could be one of the most significant events in 2023
Eurozone: French and German consumer confidence improves, supported by compensation for 'energy inflation that disappeared'. Schnabel sees this as a good reason for the ECB to act
A short note on China's health and economic crises: The world needs to be prepared for a new wave of supply disruption in 2023
24. November 2022
Germany: The IFO headline index bounces back as energy prices plunge - at least until a week ago. Supply chain problems remain high, according to the IFO Institute
France: Insee business sentiment surveys show only a moderate growth decline - but increasing supply problems. Factory prices jump as energy prices bounce back from the rock bottom
23. November 2022
USA: New home sales statistics keep the 'mild recession' scenario alive - but also the monetary 'normalisation process'
Eurozone: Consumer confidence bounces back as households are compensated for energy inflation that 'disappeared'. It makes the 'normalisation process' easier for the ECB
A short note on China facing an unprecedented health crisis - and recession
22. November 2022
USA: The probability of a more profound recession is on the rise because the Federal Reserve is forced to err on the hawkish side
21. November 2022
China: Taiwan's export orders report shows a fragile mainland China economy. China facing the same Covid outbreak as Europe did in the last quarter of 2021 will create new global supply chain problems - and dilemma for Beijing
Germany: Factory gates inflation declines sharply in October - three months after energy prices peaked in August
18. November 2022
ECB: Everyone is on board - also President Lagarde. Fighting inflation is now a priority - but this will make significant inroads into 'excess liquidity' - and economic activity
Japan: Inflation hits the highest since 1991. The central bank maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy until it is no longer the case
17. November 2022
USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey underscores what an inverted yield curve also concludes: recession. But the Federal Reserve has more tightening to do
The Eurozone is on the same fiscal path as former Prime Minister Truss - and with no leader who can look after the interests of the union
Australia: A few rate hikes are not enough to slow growth and inflation. The unemployment rate hits an all-time low
16. November 2022
China: House prices continue lower. Beijing will soon discover that there is no easy way towards socialism without causing collateral damage
15. November 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation declines - precisely as outlined by the best forward-looking inflation indicators - but the Federal Reserve will not rest before inflation is below 3%
Britain: Strong wage gain will keep the Bank of England on a path of monetary tightening. This, and fiscal tightening, will reduce inflation expectations markedly in 2023
Germany: Inflation will decline significantly, but bond yields are headed higher
China: The October statistics disappoint - but are still surprisingly robust, considering contracting tax revenues and historically low consumer confidence
11. November 2022
USA: Consumer confidence declines sharply. Inflation expectations increase. Soon, households' net worth will decline
Britain: The first step into recession was taken in Q3, but the Bank of England will still be forced to tighten monetary policy
Eurozone: ECB policymakers are finally awake - and they have turned hawkish. The 'Ukraine excuse' is no longer used by the central bank
10. November 2022
A short note on the US October inflation report: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will not make the 1980-mistake made by Paul Volcker
USA: The October consumer price report undershoots elevated inflation expectations - to the surprise of the financial market
China: Monetary aggregates statistics show no signs of aggressive stimulus measures from Beijing
Italy: The economic situation 'appears stable', but this will not last, as Rome has no room for manoeuvring. The consumer confidence index plunges to the lowest since 2013 due to soaring inflation
Britain: The RICS survey is a harbinger of a steep price decline in house prices in 2023, which looks increasingly like a global phenomenon
9. November 2022
US midterm elections appear not to be the expected landslide victory for the Republicans. Donald Trump slowly becomes a liability
China: Factory gates deflation shows a weak economy. A challenge to hide 'recession' with the biggest sector contracting and consumer confidence at a record low
8. November 2022
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey provides no comfort to the Federal Reserve - wage pressure gains momentum
Podcast interview with a 'China insider', Mathias Boyer: Xi Jinping aims for centralisation, less urbanisation, and a socialist economy. What are the implications for growth? Must listen
7. November 2022
China: The October trade report shows the weakest export performance since May 2020, as Beijing opts for 'controlling risks' to the people rather than growth. Germany's China dependency hits a new high
4. November 2022
USA: The October employment report keeps the Federal Reserve on a path of more tightening - and, therefore, more global liquidity tightening
Eurozone: The Eurozone does not have the same inflation problem as the United States - but fiscal policymakers could make the problem worse
Germany: Industrial orders declined sharply in September, with more weakness coming. Annalena Baerbock warns Scholz about China
3. November 2022
USA: ISM service survey indicates slower growth, but inflation pressure remains elevated
USA: The Federal Reserve waited too long - and now it has to do too much. The ECB has good reasons to worry
2. November 2022
Has the Bank of Japan started 'undeclared' monetary tightening?
Eurozone: Policymakers need not worry about the labour shortage problem. A 'solution' is around the corner
Germany: Chancellor Scholz is 'forced' to travel to Beijing to kowtow to the 'Emperor', as Germany's manufacturing sector faces an existential crisis
1. November 2022
USA: ISM manufacturing survey underscores that falling inflation is in the pipeline, but the labour market remains far too tight
Britain: House prices declined in October at the fastest monthly pace since 2010 as buyers face headwinds from all directions
Germany: Wholesales and import prices herald a steep decline in annual consumer price inflation in the coming months - but the ECB will stay the course for good reasons
31. October 2022
Eurozone: The economy barely expands in Q3, as inflation hits a new all-time high. Fiscal policymakers will make ECB tightening much easier
China: Xi Jinping's print is evident in the official October PMI survey. US CHIPS Act will create severe headwinds. More Covid chaos hits Apple production
28. October 2022
Eurozone: EU Commission survey shows no rebound despite falling energy prices since August. ECB's task is far from done
Japan: Tokyo consumer price inflation hits the highest since 1991. Households' inflation expectations hit an all-time high
A short note on China: Going from 'bad' to 'worse'
USA: The Q3 GDP report will not change the stance of the Federal Reserve. Unemployment needs to increase more profoundly. The liquidity situation has tightened markedly
Eurozone: The ECB is finally 'data dependent'. The bank raises policy rates by 75 basis points
27. October 2022
Sweden: NIER Economic Tendency Survey shows accelerating downturn - weakness across the board
South Korea feels the heat from slowing global growth. Global slowdown, adverse demographics, and geopolitics will create headwinds in 2023
26. October 2022
ECB lending report shows signs of 'emergency borrowing'. The 'credit standard' for loan approval is deteriorating
China: Fiscal statistics paint a gloomy economic situation. Xi Jinping will keep his course with ideology as the main priority at the expense of the economy
25. October 2022
USA: Inflation dents consumer confidence - Conference Board. Philadelphia Fed survey shows strong service price inflation
Germany: IFO survey shows no decisive signs of a rebound in corporate sentiment despite falling energy prices. Olaf Scholz plays with fire by visiting Beijing
24. October 2022
China's Q3 GDP data are history - The country is now officially ruled by an authoritarian leader
By Invitation: Xi Jinping's moment of glory - winner takes all
21. October 2022
Britain: Consumers spend more for less. The 'Truss catastrophe' was only partly to blame for a sharp sell-off in the gilt market - but it is a lesson to the Labour party
20. October 2022
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey still heralds manufacturing recession
France: Business sentiment is steady, but underlying details show more than just an energy supply problem
Germany: No relief from the factory gates. The bond market shows that inflation is not the biggest problem. The paradigm shift is now the main headwind
19. October 2022
USA: The impact of higher mortgage rates hits the housing market across the board
Eurozone: How much could, potentially, nominal bond yields increase if the ECB is no longer there as a buyer of last resort?
Britain: Inflation stays at an elevated level. EU member states are making the same mistake as London before Truss made a U-turn
18. October 2022
USA: The manufacturing sector shows more resilience than in Europe. Conversely, the Federal Reserve will have to do more tightening
Germany's ZEW survey: Falling energy prices and households compensated for 'high energy prices' will keep the ECB on track towards significant monetary tightening
17. October 2022
China: History shows that it pays to listen to what authoritarian leaders say they will do in the future
USA: Empire States survey and UoM consumer sentiment survey show sticky inflation. The Federal Reserve remains on a firm path of tightening
14. October 2022
Britain: Kwasi Kwarteng exit shows the power of bond investors is strong without the central bank as the buyer of last resort - but real government bond yields are still too low
Germany: Berlin is doing nothing to reduce inflation pressure - and an incapable AfD leadership benefits from this
China: The details in the September inflation report underscore why yesterday's protest in Beijing could be more than just a rare social incident. Is this the top of an iceberg of dissatisfaction?
13. October 2022
USA: Sticky prices will force the Federal Reserve to stay the course for many months - and going into 2023
12. October 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation stays elevated, but 'core intermediate goods inflation' declines. The Federal Reserve remains on a path of tightening
Britain: The bumpy road away from quantitative easing leaves no room for manoeuvring. The Eurozone cannot afford to make the same mistakes
What will happen at the CCP party congress?
South Korea: The Bank of Korea raises policy rates by 0.5% to 3%. The economy faces multiple threats
11. October 2022
USA: NFIB small business survey shows that the Federal Reserve is on track but still has a long way to go
Japan: The Bank of Japan, like the ECB, has good reasons to worry about a monetary u-turn - but a weak yen has not moved exports higher since Abenomics was launched
10. October 2022
China: The economy could be headed towards its first recession
7. October 2022
USA: A robust employment report keeps the Federal Reserve on track towards more monetary tightening
Germany: Retail sales in volume terms drop sharply in August. The impact of falling energy prices is replaced by the fear of war in Europe
6. October 2022
Did Saudi Arabia just make a 'Putin mistake'?
Eurozone: Fiscal stimulus measures + monetary tightening = higher real bond yields
Germany: 'Big items' hit industrial orders in August. The outlook is weak, and Berlin's low-quality fiscal stimulus measures could create more pain in the bond market
5. October 2022
USA: The ISM service survey supports the Federal Reserve's stance of more monetary tightening. Unemployment is far too low, according to the central bank
Podcast interview with Green Power Denmark: Energy price settings, price differences in the European electricity market - and the risk of deindustrialisation [language: Danish]
Germany: At first glance, the export sector performs well but for the wrong reasons. The outlook for 2023 has deteriorated
USA: The JOLTS survey shows more signs of upcoming labour market weakness in 2023, but the Federal Reserve will stay the course
4. October 2022
Eurozone: Soaring energy prices propel PPI inflation to a new record high. Energy instability erodes Europe as a manufacturing hub - with or without a cold winter
Eurozone: Fiscal stimulus measures and monetary tightening mean higher real bond yields - but yield curve steepening shows investors are having 'second thoughts' about ECB's commitment
3. October 2022
USA: ISM manufacturing sentiment shows significant weakness - but also slowing inflation pressure at the factory gates
Turkey: Erdogan's unorthodox monetary policy may soon lead to hyperinflation
Japan: The economy performs better than the European economy, but the labour market is tight - and getting tighter
30. September 2022
EU: The Y-shaped stock market, 'war economy' - and the public sector on a spending spree with no buyer of last resort
China: PMI surveys show a weak economy. 'Common prosperity' is back on the agenda, which does not necessarily bode well for the private sector
29. September 2022
Germany: Inflation hitting the highest since 1951 will have ramifications for a vulnerable political system. A too fragile energy infrastructure could trigger deindustrialisation
Eurozone survey heralds recession, inflation higher for longer: There will be 'no labour shortage problem in 2023'. Households' unemployment expectations jumped sharply in September
28. September 2022
The Bank of England, on an ice floe, is panicking after years of manipulating the bond market. The ECB could soon be in the same situation
Sweden: NIER survey shows no signs of relief. The opposite is the case. Consumer confidence hits a new record-low
Germany: Households have neither confidence in the future nor the European Central Bank. 'Fragmentation' is no longer the main problem
27. September 2022
USA: A better-than-expected New Home Sales report underscores that the Federal Reserve has much more tightening to do - but households' inflation expectations decline
Eurozone: Corporate lending jumps as loan demand declines. The liquidity situation tightens significantly
26. September 2022
Podcast interview: What will happen if Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine? Three experts answer [Language: Danish]
Germany: IFO survey is now a harbinger of an 8% economic contraction. There is weakness across the board
23. September 2022
British and Eurozone consumer confidence indexes drop again sharply to new record lows, as policymakers underestimate headwinds headed towards households
22. September 2022
Eurozone: Belgian and Dutch consumer confidence indexes drop to a new record low as households and companies face unprecedented headwinds
The Swiss and other central banks raising policy rates will force the Bank of Japan and a reluctant ECB to act. This will trigger yen repatriation
Federal Reserve: 'There is no easy way to get inflation down'. Policy rates to stay higher for longer
21. September 2022
USA: Existing home prices are headed significantly lower in 2023
How much will bond yields increase now as the 'buyers of last resort' made a U-turn?
Recommendation: Buying the yen and selling the euro
20. September 2022
The Riksbank and the ECB proved not to be up to the task. They reacted too late to an obvious risk. Consequently, their economies will now plunge into a deep recession
Germany: Factory gates inflation soared in August, but core inflation declined. A massive increase in unemployment is now in the pipeline
Japan: Headline inflation hits 3% - and higher inflation is in the pipeline. The Bank of Japan reversing monetary policy will have global ramifications
19. September 2022
USA: The NAHB index continues to see trouble in the housing market. The Federal Reserve will stay the course until the unemployment rate moves to a 'safe distance' from NAIRU
China: The downturn in the housing market continues - prices, sales and construction activity decline
15. September 2022
There will be no updates on September 16
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows no signs of a manufacturing rebound, but price pressure continues to decline caused by 'demand destruction'
French households are exposed to low inflation at the expense of energy self-sufficient countries with free market prices. Berlin and Paris showing no signs of 'energy solidarity' could backfire when winter arrives
China: Guangzhou allowing 20% home price cuts will have huge ramifications. Households' only 'safe investment' is now gone
14. September 2022
USA: Factory gate inflation slows due to falling commodity prices, but the next inflation leg will come from a tight labour market
The consequence of ignoring inflation in the first place will lead to a steep increase in US and European unemployment in 2023. China shows the same symptoms
Britain: Inflation statistics show tentative signs of having peaked, but the Bank of England has significantly more tightening in the pipeline. European liquidity tightening gains momentum
13. September 2022
USA: A disappointing August CPI report underscores the Federal Reserve is on a path of significant tightening. A tight labour market will create the next inflation leg
Germany: The ZEW survey closes the gap with the IFO survey. Berlin, the weakest link in Europe's energy infrastructure, needs to show more humility
Lower inflation, Russia's 'defeat'. Too good to be true? Maybe, but central banks will stay the course of monetary tightening - and more European companies may vote with their feet
12. September 2022
The far-right Brothers of Italy party knows the path toward power is through the centre, showing its true colours after the election
Europe: So far, the biggest surprise is the slow decline in the economy
9. September 2022
China: Monetary statistics still show a sluggish economy - but Chinese exporters now focus on European manufacturers under siege
China: No signs of inflation still leave room for more easing - but Beijing will not make the same 'mistake' as in 2008
8. September 2022
Eurozone: The ECB finally sees the writing on the wall, but this comes too late to support the euro. More tightening in the pipeline despite Lagarde trying to dilute today's decision during the press conference
Britain: A steep decline in house prices is now in the pipeline, according to RICS. This will hit all of Europe as households are exposed to unprecedented purchasing power erosion - and monetary tightening
Podcast interview with Jens Eskelund, Member of the Executive Committee of the European Chamber in China: Is the economic situation in China worse today than in 2008?
7. September 2022
China: The 'only' growth driver disappoints as the world economy slows. Beijing will not launch '2008-like stimulus measures'
6. September 2022
USA: The ISM service survey shows more tailwinds as inflation pressure declines and employment turns positive again but also supports the Federal Reserve staying the course
