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28. May 2019
Turkey: The latest economic confidence index is a harbinger of an even deeper recession in 2019
Euro-zone: French consumer confidence jumps as German consumer sentiment falls. The long-term growth outlook remains weak
27. May 2019
European Parliament elections: The 'green wave' shows voters want sweeping measures to fight climate change 'now rather than tomorrow'
24. May 2019
USA: Durable goods orders fell in April. The best forward-looking indicators herald more weakness to come
A short note on the latest 'China proxies'
Global economic and political update
23. May 2019
USA: New home sales report still does not show signs of recession in 2020. The 'hawks' are gaining the upper hand in the White House
Germany IFO survey: Manufacturing weakness feeds into the service sector
France: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back; Euro-zone economy could make a 'mini bounce' in the coming months
Germany: Q1 GDP details indicate a stronger underlying economy than outlined by the headline number
22. May 2019
Japan: Surprisingly strong Reuters Tankan survey reduces the risk of recession in 2019
Euro-zone consumer confidence index jumps in May despite higher inflation
21. May 2019
USA: Existing house prices increase at the slowest rate since 2012 despite a favourable environment
Turkey: Consumer confidence plunges to a new record low. The fiscal deficit is soaring
China anecdotal update shows deteriorating sentiment on the mainland
20. May 2019
USA: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index hits the highest level since January 2004. The Federal Reserve is forced to stay the course
Japan: Surprisingly strong Q1 growth caused by a sharp decline in imports - the outlook remains weak
16. May 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows signs of 'moderate' growth in 2019 and slower growth in 2020; but no signs of recession; ‌Investors misjudge what the White House aims for
China: House prices rose again in April. Beijing is on a delicate balancing act in the housing market
Is China 'weaponising' its holdings of US government bonds? If so, the effect will be limited
15. May 2019
USA: Industrial output dropped in April as US politics turn 'China-hostile' across the board 
US retail sales disappoint, but 'lagging' households still face tailwinds in the short run. A full-blown trade war will lead to a recession in 2020 
Euro-zone: The economy 'survived' in Q1, but the outlook is gloomy, as the risk of a trade war with the United States is on the rise
Germany: Flash GDP Q1 growth rate was in line with market expectations, but underlying details will probably show significant inventory build-up
China: The statistical office 'decides' to show what is obvious on the mainland namely slowing growth
14. May 2019
Britain: 'Brexit' has not yet proven a 'mistake' ahead of European Parliament Elections
Germany: ZEW survey shows a sharp decline in the expectations index as USA and EU prepares for the next trade war
USA: Strong small business sentiment survey shows no signs of headwinds from the trade war
TODAY, THE UPDATES MAY BE DELAYED DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT REUTERS-REFINITIV-DATASTREAM
13. May 2019
The USA-China 'trade war' is getting closer to a point of no return as 'hawks' gain the upper hand
10. May 2019
Italy: Industrial production contracts as absolute real GDP is still only at the 2009-level
Japanese workers' cash earnings falling at the fastest pace since 2015 and soaring inflation expectations hit consumer confidence in April
9. May 2019
USA: Producer price inflation remains subdued but the labour market is tightening and import tariffs could boost PPI and CPI
Spain: The effect of the 'Rajoy-reform process' is evaporating. Industrial output drops sharply in March
China: Monetary statistics in April support the case of a 'false dawn'. China is vulnerable if import tariffs are raised on Friday
China-USA: Are investors and the corporate sector prepared for geopolitical risks on the rise?
8. May 2019
Germany: The construction sector boosts industrial production in March. The outlook remains weak, according to the IFO survey
China: April trade report continues to show a very weak export sector. Do not count on Beijing and Washington to do the 'right thing' as other factors are at play
7. May 2019
Global: Geopolitical risks are on the rise. Is this included in equity risk premium calculations?
Germany industrial orders excluding 'big items' fell sharply in March
6. May 2019
Germany: Engineering orders fall by 10% in Q1; no signs of an upcoming rebound
The China-USA trade deal is 'no stronger than the next tweet from President Trump'. The latest tweet comes after an eventful weekend in Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and Israel
3. May 2019
USA: ISM service survey indicates significantly slower growth in the second half of 2019
USA: Robust April labour market report, but forward-looking indicators herald weakness in the second half of 2019
Euro-zone: Higher headline inflation will put a drag on private consumption; service inflation hits the highest level since 2011
Turkey: Inflation will not go away as the country has 'two central bankers'
2. May 2019
USA: 'Under-estimated' productivity rose strongly in Q1; this was the fastest annual rate of increase since 2009
No signs of relief in the Swedish and Swiss PMI surveys show that this is not a normal slowdown
Germany: Household spending at risk despite strong fundamentals
1. May 2019
USA: A disappointingly weak  ISM survey makes monetary policy a delicate balancing act
USA: Strong ADP employment report is 'supposed to' silence White House talk about a rate cut
30. April 2019
USA: Consumer confidence bounces back; a sharp increase in the share of households seeing 'plentiful-of-jobs' indicates a tight labour market
USA: Employment costs are on the rise, but the rate of increase is low considering a historically low unemployment rate
The Euro-zone 'appears' to survive a tough first quarter; Italy avoids recession
France: Higher inventories boost growth in the first quarter of 2019; the outlook remains weak 
China: Manufacturing PMI indexes decline despite 'stimulus measures', which do not hit the shores of the private corporate sector
29. April 2019
Euro-zone: Money supply accelerates at the same time as loan demand declines
Euro-zone survey shows yet another steep decline in the ESI index; industrial confidence index drops to the lowest since September 2014
China: 'Revised' corporate profit recovers in March propelled by a rebound in SOEs' earnings, but data remain incoherent
26. April 2019
USA: Strong headline GDP growth rate does not tell the full story; Q1 shows weakest real domestic demand since 2013
Japan: Industrial production drops at the fastest rate since March 2015
25. April 2019
USA: Durable goods orders continue to show robust corporate spending
Spain's national election will create one more political problem in the European Union  
Watch out for South Korea: Economic contraction in Q1 will lead to a rate cut; the risk of a '2008-like' won sell-off is on the rise
24. April 2019
Australia: Low inflation, falling house prices, the 'missing China effect' and collateral damage from US-China trade deal add downwards pressure on the Australian dollar
Germany: IFO survey pictures an economy on the edge of recession; manufacturing sentiment drops to the lowest level since 2012
France: Manufacturing sentiment drops to the lowest level since June 2015
23. April 2019
USA: New home sales report still shows no signs of an upcoming recession
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey heralds short-term strength followed by manufacturing contraction in Q1-2020
'China proxies' show no signs yet of a rebound in manufacturing activity
17. April 2019
US trade deficit declines in February as front-loading in H2-2018 and weak demand in Q1 put a drag on imports in H1-2019
Japan: The misery continues
China: Strong industrial production and construction in March 'save' the Q1 GDP report, but the 'costs-of-growth' are on the rise
16. April 2019
USA: Industrial output disappoints in March; there are no significant signs of a rebound
German ZEW survey shows investors see 'hope' as the main driver - 'Facts' still point further downwards
China's highly manipulated house prices rose in March - Beijing walks a delicate balancing act
15. April 2019
US Empire State headline index bounces back, but the six-month outlook index plunges
Unplugged 'Travel Notes': President Xi Jinping moves backwards as the Chinese people moves forwards 
Turkey is an accident waiting to happen on the edge of Europe: Unemployment jumps to the highest level since 2009
China: The latest economic data still mirror an L-shaped growth 'recovery' which was confirmed by last week's trip to the mainland
5. April 2019
There will be no updates from April 8 to April 12, as the editor will be on a trip to China
USA: March labour report is neither too hot nor too cold, but the 'Q3 and beyond' employment outlook is weak
Japan: Wages decline despite the lowest unemployment rate since the early 1990s. The outlook remains weak and consumer confidence is on the decline
Germany: Industrial output data better than market expectations, but the IFO outlook remains weak
4. April 2019
Turkey now faces several headwinds at the same time. Inflation and politics will create a new lira sell-off
Germany: Industrial orders plunge in February. The manufacturing outlook remains weak, according to IFO
3. April 2019
USA: The ISM service index drops in March after a surprisingly strong February survey. A strong employment index continues to show a tight labour market
USA: A weak ADP Employment in March was partially mitigated by an up-revised February number. A lagging labour market will continue to tighten in 2019
Euro-zone: Strong retail sales as households are not yet exposed to headwinds
China: The Caixin service PMI index bounces back after a steep decline in February. The debt situation worsens, according to CASS
2. April 2019
USA: In contrast to consumer spending, corporate spending is not expected to bounce back in 2019
Euro-zone: Producer price inflation heading significantly lower will keep monetary policy accommodative in the foreseeable future
Presentation: The most disruptive time since World War II
1. April 2019
USA: Manufacturing ISM index bounces back, but the details show only a weak rebound
USA: February retail sales report boosts the risk of zero growth in Q1
Europe: The rebound is long in coming. Swiss manufacturing PMI index falls sharply close to contraction
The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey shows a steep decline in manufacturing sentiment
China: Both leading manufacturing PMI surveys show a sharp rebound in sentiment in March
29. March 2019
USA: New home sales report is still not a harbinger of recession. This also makes it difficult for the Fed to change monetary policy
Spain is riding high on Rajoy's reforms, but the foundation for a stronger far-right is on the rise
Japan: Industrial output increases more than expected in February, but the outlook remains gloomy
28. March 2019
There were no Daily Macro updates on Thursday, March 28
27. March 2019
USA: The trade deficit will decline in the first quarter as a consequence of front-loading in 2018. A 'sustainable' trade deal seems highly unlikely
Italy: Manufacturing sentiment continues to contract. Berlin-Paris hypocrisy will keep Rome on path of even stronger China-Italy co-operation
China: A sharp decline in corporate profits reflects a weaker economy than perceived by global investors
26. March 2019
USA: Consumer confidence plunges in March. The share of households seeing plentiful-of-jobs also falls sharply
USA: Housing starts and Case-Shiller reports continue to show weakness in the housing sector
France: Business sentiment shows only tentative signs of growth stabilisation in March. 'Money talks' as Xi Jinping visits France
A short note on anecdotal evidence from China: Deterioration or Stabilisation?
25. March 2019
USA: Dallas Fed manufacturing survey shows no signs of a sustainable bounce in sentiment. The capital expenditure plans index plunges
Brazil: The news flow erodes Bolsonaro's reform process
Germany: IFO survey shows a sharp bounce in service and retailer sentiment, but manufacturing optimism continues to decline
22. March 2019
USA: Existing home sales skyrocketed in February as households benefit from falling mortgage yields
Morning Briefing email problem solved
Japan: Official inflation is benign even though households' inflation expectations hit the highest level since July 2015
21. March 2019
USA: The details in the Philadelphia Fed survey boost the probability of recession in H1-2020 which is reinforced by six more months of Fed balance sheet reduction
Britain: Economic statistics continue to defy 'hell breaks loose' scenario
Berlin and Paris act as China turns into a threat to EU's 'single market' 
20. March 2019
China: Taiwanese and other 'activity indicators' do not show signs of stronger growth on the mainland
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey slowly follows the same path as the Diffusion Index, which boosts the risk of recession in H1
19. March 2019
Weak US factory orders in January - There are surprisingly few signs of a rebound in sentiment in the regional surveys
Germany: ZEW survey shows tentative signs that the economy might have hit rock bottom - Belt-and-Road-Initiative poses a 'threat' to German and French champions
18. March 2019
Japanese trade report offers no hope yet that China could soon 'save the world'
By Invitation: Order in Xi Jinping's Parliament
15. March 2019
THERE WILL BE NO UPDATES ON MARCH 15
China: Monthly house price inflation continues to slow but Beijing and local authorities will prevent outright price decline
14. March 2019
USA: The New home sales report in January does not give cause for recession concern in 2019
China: January-February economic statistics show weakness - The risk of lower residential house prices is on the rise unless PBOC acts more aggressively
13. March 2019
USA: Durable goods orders report still shows no signs of an upcoming recession
Euro-zone: Industrial output bounces back in January after a significant decline in inventories - The outlook deteriorates as Rome, Portugal and Malta opt for China
Japan: Machinery orders report boosts the probability of a recession in H1. China cannot help Japanese exporters because of only 'reluctant' easing measures
12. March 2019
Brazil: Surprisingly subdued inflation supports the currency, but Bolsonaro's temper poses a risk to the planned economic reforms
USA: Benign inflation continues to support US households' real purchasing power
USA: Small business sentiment survey shows tentative signs of a rebound. It will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to avoid the impact of quantitative tightening
11. March 2019
US January retail sales report surprises to the upside but an already weak December report was revised down
Germany: Industrial report disappoints in January. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer challenges Merkel and Paris with her own political agenda
Turkey plunges officially into recession in Q4. The outlook remains gloomy
China: Weak monetary expansion is partly because the hands of monetary decision-makers are tied up by the trade negotiations
8. March 2019
USA: A weak non-farm payroll number was expected but not that weak. Wage inflation is still on the rise and the unemployment rate fell in February
Germany: Industrial orders plunge as demand declines across the board in January
China: January-February trade report shows the boomerang 'frontloading in 2018' is now coming back with a vengeance
ECB press conference is a reminder to investors that the economy is on the same path as Japan. Political inaction in Brussels and Berlin make the periphery turn to the One Belt One Road Initiative
7. March 2019
Euro-zone: Q4 GDP details show a significant negative contribution from inventories
Japan: The Cabinet Office's 'Diffusion Index' heralds a deeper and prolonged period of contraction or recession
6. March 2019
USA: The trade deficit inflating is not a huge surprise considering the current policy mix. The ISM survey heralds an even higher deficit in H1
USA: Robust ADP employment growth in February. The growth outlook indicated by the ISM surveys heralds robust employment growth in the first half of 2019
Australia: Growth disappoints in Q4. The risk of economic contraction in Q1 is on the rise
5. March 2019
USA: Service sentiment jumps in February. ISM orders index skyrocketed to the highest level since 2005. The survey will keep the Fed biased towards tightening in 2019
Euro-zone: Lower inflation supports retail sales in January but the 'window of relief' is closing because of a higher oil price
China: Caixin service index falls sharply as Beijing lowers growth target. Beijing plans to fight the unavoidable
4. March 2019
Euro-zone: Benign inflation at the factory gates will make ECB's Draghi talk the euro lower as politicians will fail to take action
Turkey: Disturbingly high inflation and no signs of an economic rebound could trigger a new lira sell-off ahead of the upcoming local elections
1. March 2019
USA: The rebound in the ISM manufacturing sentiment index failed to continue in February. A steep decline in the production index should give rise to concern
European and US business sentiment: A short-lived rebound followed by the same problems as in November 2018
China: Caixin manufacturing survey shows a strong rebound in the domestic orders index
Japan: The unemployment rate has hit rock bottom as the economy will contract in the first half of 2019
Highly recommended: Podcast about the future of the European Union. Interview with thematic specialist Morten Springborg from CWorldWide
28. February 2019
USA: Surprisingly robust Q4 GDP growth report is also supported by the underlying details
Sweden: Strong net-exports boost growth in the last quarter of 2018
China: Manufacturing PMI index drops again as export sentiment takes a beating but there are tentative signs of stimulus measures
27. February 2019
India-Pakistan conflict escalation challenges US foreign policy
EU business and consumer survey shows tentative signs of 'stabilisation'
Italy has all the ingredients to trigger a serious crisis. The ECB is no longer there to help
A short update of the global outlook: The stock market could soon face the same situation as in November 2018
26. February 2019
USA: Housing starts report underscores very weak December-January. Federal Reserve U-turn will create short-term rebound which will be followed by two more rate hikes in 2019
France: Consumer confidence bounces back strongly as Yellow Vests demonstrations disappear and the labour market is strong. Inflation expectations soar
Germany: The economy faces the risk of 'technical recession' but households are still exposed to tailwinds
25. February 2019
China-USA trade deal: The interpretation and what comes next?
22. February 2019
Germany: A disappointing IFO survey will add more fuel to CDU's 'Germany First' strategy
China: House prices continued to increase in January, but the outlook is cloudy as 'excess supply' is on the rise
21. February 2019
USA: Durable goods orders are forecast to contract in the first quarter of 2019, but no signs yet of a collapse in corporate spending
USA: A steep decline in the Philadelphia Fed headline index shows profound manufacturing weakness in the first half of 2019, but no signs of recession
China: Weak PBOC balance sheet data raises doubt about the strength of the bank lending report in January
France: The economy is supported by improving domestic sentiment, which is just enough to offset global headwinds
20. February 2019
Turkey: Consumer confidence continuing to decline spells trouble for the lira
Japan: Frontloading in 2018 has turned into a boomerang coming back with a vengeance in 2019
Euro-zone: Dutch consumer confidence declining to the lowest level since February 2015 bodes ill for European private consumption in H1
19. February 2019
A short note on the US-China trade negotiations: Do not underestimate Beijing's long-term determination
Germany: ZEW survey shows no signs of a rebound. Berlin faces reality check
Britain: The economy performs relatively well in comparison with other EU countries but long-term risks are building. A comeback to the 'Social Democratic Party'?
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey takes a significant beating in February
18. February 2019
Japan: Tokyo is forced to walk further out on the ice floe
15. February 2019
USA: Consumer sentiment bouncing back brings some relief after a disappointing December retail sales report
USA: Manufacturing output falls sharply in January. The best forward-looking indicators are harbingers of a rebound in April or May
China: Distorted January data shows only 'tentative signs' of stronger lending
China: Inflation report is a reflection of a very weak economy. A trade deal is needed but Beijing cannot afford to make significant concessions
14. February 2019
USA: Surprisingly weak retail sales report raises several new questions in the stock market. Too weak consumer spending overshadows Federal Reserve sitting tight
Turkey: Industrial output contracts at the fastest rate since 2009. The risk of a deep recession is on the rise
Japan: The economy bounces back in Q4 but it fails to recoup economic contraction seen in Q3 
China: Lunar New Year distorted trade report continues to show underlying weakness
Germany: The economy escapes recession as growth was zero in Q4. The outlook is gloomy and Berlin has no strategy
13. February 2019
USA: Moderate headline inflation provides a boost to workers' real purchasing power. A weak trade deal will face severe domestic criticism
Brazil: Buoyant business and consumer sentiment remain to be seen in real economic activity. Hospitalised President trigger an internal power struggle
Euro-zone: Industrial production plunges at the fastest rate since 2009. The political response should give rise to concern
South Korea: Unemployment rate jumps to the highest level since 2009
12. February 2019
USA: NFIB small business six-month outlook index plunges to the lowest level since the Presidential election in November 2016
11. February 2019
Britain: The economy barely expanded in the last quarter of 2018. The outlook for the first half of 2019 deteriorates
Germany: Tensions are on the rise in Berlin as SPD moves to the left and CDU turns to the right
8. February 2019
Brazil: Inflation remains surprisingly benign in January. Pension draft plans to raise the minimum retirement age significantly to 65
Italy: The recession will be more profound and longer