6. November 2024
A convincing Trump victory will hit US allies hard. The risk of 'crowding out' and inflation necessitates significant public spending cuts
5. November 2024
A relationship in Berlin without love likely means an impending divorce. Tomorrow?
4. November 2024
Are expectations for Beijing's fiscal package too high? The largest German companies underestimate the geopolitical situation
1. November 2024
The British Labour government's budget highlights the extent to which fiscal flexibility has diminished in Europe
31. October 2024
The EU Business and Consumer Survey illustrates the reality facing the European Union. The bond market should take note of this
29. October 2024
VW's conflict with the trade unions could prove decisive in Germany and the rest of the Eurozone. A positive outcome is possible, but it will be an exceptionally challenging task
28. October 2024
NPC Meeting: Beijing knows what is suitable for the Communist Party - but not necessarily for China with plenty of 'capitalist characteristics'
Donald Trump's 'second term', the EU's security situation - and what Russia's wartime economy might indicate for the European bond market
25. October 2024
Mr Scholz, Tear Down This Government Coalition - and Call Elections
24. October 2024
The skeletons are falling out of the closet in Germany and France. This demands action. Monetary or Fiscal expansion - or both?
22. October 2024
The Impact of a Trump Victory on the European Bond Market: What Investors Need to Know
21. October 2024
Friedrich Merz sees a significant rise in support in opinion polls. The Schuldenbremse discussion intensifies
18. October 2024
Chinese house prices continued their 'free fall' in September, with consumer confidence at rock bottom - yet the economy still grew in Q3. What exactly does Beijing want?
17. October 2024
ECB set to cut rates today. EU politicians pushing for self-sufficiency will lift the floor for policy rates
15. October 2024
German politics will be crucial for the European Union. Friedrich Merz faces a challenging task as the 'next' Chancellor
14. October 2024
China could solve the overcapacity problem instantly - but Beijing has no plans to change a 'successful strategy'
11. October 2024
Avoiding a bearish steepening of the Eurozone yield curve will be challenging
8. October 2024
Due to a business trip, there will be no updates on the website Wednesday-Thursday [October 9-10]. Therefore, there will also be no Weekly Newsletter next week
The US Federal Reserve will find it challenging to lower policy rates significantly in 2025
Beijing has chosen an expensive approach without reforms to a structural crisis. The ideological direction remains unchanged
7. October 2024
Recession and lack of action in Berlin further fuel AfD's rise in opinion polls. The risk of stagflation in the Eurozone will prevail in 2025
4. October 2024
USA: Early and late-leading indicators all point towards a reacceleration in the demand side in the first half of 2025
3. October 2024
The Western world faces a prolonged period of supply-side volatility. Central banks' minimum interest rates will be higher than before
2. October 2024
Israel views Iran's attack as a welcome 'invitation' to launch comprehensive strikes on Tehran's nuclear weapons programme. Israel sees Iran as an existential threat
1. October 2024
EU: Massive infrastructure investments - both public and private - are coming, but the room for manoeuvre is limited. The risk of stagflation is high
30. September 2024
Podcast interview with Danish TV2's China correspondent in Beijing: 'It no longer matters whether the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice. It has to be red'
27. September 2024
Beijing finally gave in. Now, Berlin needs to remove its blinders to help Germany and the Eurozone
China's extensive 'firefighting' following yet another miscalculation in Beijing. Stimulus measures will be China First and higher commodity prices
26. September 2024
Chairman Powell may be on the road to making the next policy mistake - overly optimistic rate cut expectations
24. September 2024
China inflates the balloon one week before the 75th anniversary - but fiscal stimulus is, so far, absent
23. September 2024
German Politicians with Blinders Risk Creating Chaos in the EU: The Perfect Outcome is Narrow
China 'adjusts' to reduce the risk of social unrest, but the direction remains the same. The consequences for the EU will be significant
19. September 2024
The Federal Reserve did the right thing, but it gives food for thought in the bond market
18. September 2024
Podcast interview with Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, PIIE and Bruegel: Does the EU have what it takes to avoid falling further behind?
17. September 2024
Eurozone: Wage pressure will not disappear. The outcome of the VW labour conflict will be crucial for Germany and the entire EU. Intel cancels factory in Magdeburg
13. September 2024
China no longer has wise political leaders - but weak EU leaders continue to fall for old tricks in Beijing
12. September 2024
The Eurozone faces chaotic years ahead - and the ECB cannot help much this time. The AfD is looking forward to the 2025 election
11. September 2024
In the West, the risk of stagflation is likely more significant than the risk of recession
10. September 2024
The final version of the Mid-Year Update Presentation is now available here
9. September 2024
The Eurozone and the USA face a complicated period of policy rate cuts
30. August 2024
There will be no updates on August 31-September 9 due to vacation
EU: The UN Population Revision 2024 shows even stronger demographic headwinds unless politicians promote rather than hinder the spread of Artificial Intelligence
28. August 2024
USA: Falling inflation, a 50 basis points rate cut, and a new growth leg sound almost too good to be true. It is, indeed!
26. August 2024
IFO survey: Germany's industry is in deep trouble, but Berlin is still wearing blinders
22. August 2024
Germany's Economic Crisis in Slow-Motion: Berlin needs to act decisively before it is too late
21. August 2024
Podcast interview with military tech expert Andreas Graae: Does Denmark have the right defence for future military conflicts?
20. August 2024
Insightview's perspective on the US Federal Reserve's potential policy shift, recession, the Presidential election, the bond and stock markets
16. August 2024
AI, Demographics, and Geopolitics - and What It Means for the Stock Market [article and video]
15. August 2024
China: Everything points towards an 'asset price recession' unless stubbornness is replaced by realism in Beijing
14. August 2024
The Federal Reserve's path of policy rate cuts and the implications for the bond market
13. August 2024
A steepening US yield curve 'assumes' the Federal Reserve will do the 'right thing.' A robust NFIB survey shows why this will not be a classic economic slowdown
12. August 2024
State elections in Germany: Sahra Wagenknecht benefits from the 'bookkeeper approach' in Berlin
9. August 2024
The impact of AI on the US economy: Is divergence between SP500 market cap and nominal GDP too high?
7. August 2024
The US Federal Reserve is likely more nervous than investors due to a significant decline in TIPS inflation expectations
6. August 2024
Navigating the market bubble without losing sight of the big picture: ISM service survey brings relief to a nervous stock market
5. August 2024
The blinders are off. A different aftermath due to a markedly different environment than in the past
2. August 2024
The Bank of Japan, yen repatriation, US 'recession' and 'growth panic': Does 'what did not happen earlier' unfold now? What are the consequences?
A Federal Reserve policy rate cut of 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points cannot be ruled out following a surprisingly weak ISM survey
1. August 2024
China's economy: Who speaks up if things go in the wrong direction?
31. July 2024
Eurozone: The factors driving service inflation will not disappear in the next many years
30. July 2024
Berlin 'saving itself to death' has now become the Eurozone's biggest problem
29. July 2024
The US Federal Reserve and the ECB will lower policy rates, but the decision could suddenly appear in a different light
26. July 2024
US Q2 growth report, a steepening yield curve and geopolitics make the coming quarters a delicate balancing act for the Federal Reserve
25. July 2024
The economic undercurrent gains the upper hand in the Eurozone with huge political consequences to come
24. July 2024
Is the financial market wearing blinders?
22. July 2024
The Third Plenum meeting reinforces Xi Jinping's direction - more of the same that triggered the trade conflicts
Summary of the 'Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Deepening Reform and Advancing Chinese Modernisation'
19. July 2024
A short note on strong regional Philadelphia Fed surveys in the United States
18. July 2024
Weather Forecast: 'Hurricane-like Winds with Shifting Directions and the Formation of New Inflation Clouds in the Western Region. Unstable Fronts with Isolationist Trump-Vance Leadership'
16. July 2024
The next Trump administration could push the EU into a dangerous security vacuum
15. July 2024
The political impact of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump before and after the election
China needs a 'controlled' recession, but Beijing has failed to create the institutionalised framework. Beijing has a different priority list
12. July 2024
Does falling US inflation also mean significantly lower bond yields?
11. July 2024
Washington Meeting: Geopolitical tensions are escalating with significant economic consequences
10. July 2024
The path of interest rates in the US - and the impact on the Eurozone bond market
9. July 2024
Misunderstood fiscal discipline in Berlin: Germany's path to instability
8. July 2024
French Election: The operation succeeded - but it caused the pendulum to swing to the left
28. June 2024
Due to vacation, there will be no updates on July 1-5
27. June 2024
Germany stands out in the June EU business and consumer survey: One threat from Beijing and Olaf Scholz panics
China's window of opportunity: A second and last chance to save the relationship with the European Union?
25. June 2024
National Rally is poised for a major electoral victory. ECB will bear part of the credit risk for the election promises. What are the consequences of 'French nukes are for France'?
24. June 2024
Germany needs - and will be forced to accept - lenient fiscal rules to make Germany and the EU survive
21. June 2024
'Recovery' in the US manufacturing sector does not gain traction - but inflationary pressures accelerate. Trump and the risk of recession
20. June 2024
Germany's competitiveness faces significant erosion without action
18. June 2024
The 'centre holds,' but the Eurozone faces unprecedented economic problems from weak productivity and soaring labour costs
17. June 2024
China is in the midst of a balance sheet 'recession': Existing house prices drop at the fastest rate since 2011
14. June 2024
Political chaos in France: Marine Le Pen knows the path to power through the front door at the centre, but what happens when she stands in the corridor of power?
13. June 2024
Washington will be forced to address a spiralling federal debt - otherwise, the bond market will react accordingly
11. June 2024
USA: The NFIB sentiment survey shows no signs of a weakening labour market. Labour shortages will prevail throughout 2024
The game is over for the coalition in Berlin. Germany could soon be forced to call an early election - tomorrow might be too late
10. June 2024
A weaker EU at the worst possible time means a higher risk premium. Will Meloni save the EU? What is the outcome of Macron's Russian Roulette?
7. June 2024
Chinese trade figures still show signs of a weak domestic economy. The cost of 'de-risking' will be high for China and the EU
6. June 2024
ECB decides hawkish monetary easing because it has no other option
4. June 2024
What happens if the gap between the ISM and the real economy closes?
3. June 2024
The ECB's communication problem: Policy rate cut, service inflation, soaring budget deficits and labour shortages
31. May 2024
A Beijing that continues to kick the can down the road and a West that no longer follows Beijing's playbook will not create a self-propelled recovery in China
30. May 2024
Western secular challenges: Implications for bond markets, the yield curve and monetary policy
29. May 2024
The European Central Bank's main challenge is to increase unemployment
Podcast interview with Camilla Tenna Norup Sorensen: The EU's next major challenge - the strained relationship with 'Xi Jinping's China'
27. May 2024
IFO survey: The road to recovery will be a long and arduous process, requiring massive investments in new technology
24. May 2024
EU's secular problem - labour shortage - is highly evident in French business surveys
23. May 2024
Has the ECB promised too much? Yes, according to German wage statistics and due to a hostile geopolitical environment
21. May 2024
Why are commodity prices rising?
17. May 2024
Due to Whit Monday, there will be no update on May 20
Beijing reacts when the CPC is threatened. The real estate sector crisis requires action, but new measures are mostly kicking the can down the road
16. May 2024
Washington's focus on inflation and the federal budget deficit will soon become the EU's biggest problem as generosity fades
14. May 2024
USA: Demographics, 'significant de-risking', and military build-up will amplify inflationary pressures in the coming quarters and years
British labour market report underscores European central banks' lack of room for manoeuvre
13. May 2024
'Xi Jinping's China' is becoming more visible on the horizon in the West. This gives rise to concern in the EU
8. May 2024
Due to Ascension Day, there will be no update on May 9 and May 10
7. May 2024
Germany's many obstacles: Fifth-column activities, Scholz and Christian Lindner stand in the way of voters who support change
6. May 2024
A short note on the US employment report and the ISM surveys: A paradigm shift
The EU faces crucial days and months. The first test is the Xi Jinping visit. The next test: Ukraine's vulnerable eastern front?
3. May 2024
The US labour market will continue to hit its ceiling without massive increases in productivity
2. May 2024
Japan is a 'currency manipulator' - but no one has an interest in telling Tokyo [corrected]
1. May 2024
Western central banks face a reality check. Wage inflation will not go away without higher unemployment - but this requires significant tightening
30. April 2024
The EU Parliamentary election could prove to be fateful. It will reveal whether a strong centre has the support of the voters
29. April 2024
The Eurozone economy has stalled
The likelihood of 'significant EU de-risking' away from China is increasing
26. April 2024
The ECB would have already cut policy rates multiple times if these were 'normal times'. It is not!
The Bank of Japan continues to speak with a forked tongue. This cannot go unpunished for the yen as the US Federal Reserve may not be able to lower interest rates
24. April 2024
Podcast interview with Jacob Kaarsbo: ENGLISH transcript - Ukraine, Iran, China, Russia, Donald Trump and what awaits the EU countries in the coming time
Germany: The IFO survey continues to show improvement - but the risk of 'profound de-risking' away from China is on the rise
22. April 2024
A dynamic geopolitical situation could sooner rather than later force the EU to address more aggressively its dependency on China
18. April 2024
US Philadelphia Fed survey: A new inflation leg is underway in the manufacturing sector
The aftermath of Scholz's kowtow: Beijing has a problem if the EU proves to have a backbone - and so will many European companies in China
16. April 2024
China: 'Impressive' growth number in Q1 if you are wearing blinkers
15. April 2024
The missile attack wiped the slate clean for Netanyahu and opened a window of opportunity to target Iran's nuclear weapons program
12. April 2024
The underlying details in China's trade statistics continue to show domestic weakness. Scholz headed for another kowtow in Beijing
Podcast interview with USA expert Niels Bjerre-Poulsen: What happens if Trump becomes the next president of the United States?
11. April 2024
Deflationary tendencies bring up the 'bazooka talk' again, but Beijing has a completely different agenda
10. April 2024
USA: The Federal Reserve's job is far from done. Reducing service price inflation is difficult without a significant increase in unemployment
9. April 2024
The Bank of Japan is playing with fire: Households are seeing stronger wage increases and higher inflation
5. April 2024
Another strong US labour market report will not give 'inevitable' policy rate cuts a particularly warm reception in the long end of the bond market
If Ukraine falls, public sector expenditure in EU member states will rise rapidly in a world with many constraints
4. April 2024
The US Federal Reserve now has a complete picture - but pointing in all directions
3. April 2024
The ECB only has the option for symbolic policy rate cuts. Real bond yields will rise, and productivity needs to increase [includes two extra charts]
2. April 2024
Japan's service sentiment increases to the highest since 1991. Higher JGB yields will trigger rising bond yields in the USA and Eurozone
Are the many 'Acts' in the USA finally creating a new growth leg in the manufacturing sector?
27. March 2024
Due to Easter, there will be no update from March 28 to April 1 - both days included
China's problem is that the EU intends to reduce dependence on a no longer trusted Beijing
26. March 2024
Sweden is in a strong position to enjoy the benefit of a changed geopolitical situation with friend-shoring and higher defence spending
25. March 2024
European defence stocks speak their own language, but politicians are chasing the train
22. March 2024
The German IFO survey is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. German politics has become pure chaos with no solution to huge problems
21. March 2024
The European Central Bank's room for monetary easing is limited, even though a rate cut in June is highly likely
The Reuters Tankan survey signals an accelerating Japanese economy. Buy the yen
20. March 2024
Podcast interview: ENGLISH transcript - President of the EU Chamber in China - Reciprocity in the China-EU relationship without dialogue increases the risk of a serious clash
19. March 2024
China's economic problems are now so significant that the 'Emperor' must visit the EU
18. March 2024
The Bank of Japan does not need to say many wrong words to create an avalanche. The global consequences could be significant
15. March 2024
Chinese house price index declines to 2018 low. TikTok is part of an intensifying economic conflict with the West
14. March 2024
A short note on demographics, monetary policy, immigration and productivity
12. March 2024
There will be no updates on March 13
US CPI inflation progress will be slow without a significant increase in unemployment. NFIB indicates this is in the pipeline - maybe
There is a good reason to fasten the seatbelt if Trump carries out just half his threats
8. March 2024
German economy moves deeper into the abyss due to a lack of constructive political action. Industrial orders hit the lowest since 2010
Podcast interview: ENGLISH transcript - What happens in Europe if the USA leaves NATO? Interview with Sten Rynning, director of the Danish Institute for Advanced Study
7. March 2024
China's trade report is yet another reminder of an impending trade war
6. March 2024
Weaker US growth in 2024 will pave the way for 'the least bad president,' whom no one truly desires
5. March 2024
A short note on the Two Sessions Meeting in Beijing: There is little focus on the economy but much on a massive military buildup. Putin created a big mess for Beijing
4. March 2024
French budget deficit highlights the challenges facing the Eurozone. The four largest Eurozone members illustrate the problem for the ECB
1. March 2024
The ECB is set to disappoint the bond market beyond a 'pseudo-policy-rate cut' - unless unemployment increases significantly
China's economy is apparently so weak that a concerned Beijing will do everything possible to avoid a corporate exodus from China
29. February 2024
German statistics paint a dire picture. The positive aspect is that most voters support dramatic changes - including massive rearmament
28. February 2024
The EU Commission survey still highlights why the ECB does not have much room to manoeuvre
27. February 2024
The Eurozone shows marginal signs of improvement. EU leaders face unpopular decisions - a discussion started by the Danish Prime Minister
There is much talk about the EU's window of opportunity - but one should focus on Russia's 'best choice'. Poland talks about nuclear option
23. February 2024
IFO survey indicates a deeper German recession - and with it comes an inevitable trade war with China
Chinese house prices continue to fall. How does one filter 'misinformation'?
22. February 2024
The economic situation in Germany is now so bad that it's time to say goodbye to nostalgia. 'Goodbye SchuldenBremse'
20. February 2024
A short follow-up to the Eurozone wage statistics for Q4
The economic downturn in China's property market is too severe to pursue ideological politics at the moment
19. February 2024
The primary task of the ECB is to create space for the defence industry. The consequence is lower private consumption - and higher real bond yields
16. February 2024
The EU Commission is now paving the way for massive military rearmament. The Weimar Triangle opens up for a European military alliance with Britain without any 'stumbling blocks'
15. February 2024
The US labour market will continue to bump against the ceiling in 2024
What drives the Japanese stock market? There are many factors, but the primary explanation remains the same
13. February 2024
The current level of US unemployment and fiscal policy 'out of control' do not support a policy of rate cuts
Western Europe is heading towards a semi-war economy now that politicians understand the gravity of the geopolitical situation. Tight labour markets
12. February 2024
China's monetary statistics show no signs of an accelerating economy. 'Japanificantion' continues unabatedly
9. February 2024
Podcast interview [English subtitles included] with former Danish Military Attache in China: Have we also misjudged China? [English and Danish]
8. February 2024
USA: Two-thirds of the US federal deficit is now interest payments. The next administration will be forced to act forcefully to the disadvantage of the EU
7. February 2024
The industrial downturn continues in Germany. Policy change in Berlin is needed. ECB's room of maneuvring is limited
6. February 2024
A brief note on the Chinese bazooka, which does not exist. Xi Jinping's credibility is at stake
5. February 2024
The US ISM survey confirms Friday's strong labour market report and increases the likelihood of a new inflation leg
Could Germany call a national election in 2024? Yes, the coalition government in Berlin is no longer working
Turkey must now pay the price for Erdogan's failed economic policy. The cleanup is left to others
2. February 2024
What to expect from the US labour market in a world facing the worst geopolitical and demographic challenges since the Second World War
1. February 2024
Eurozone: To keep inflation down requires a completely different political approach. There is no room for political fumbling
31. January 2024
Beijing now has two options
30. January 2024
The Eurozone economy is weak - but not enough to pave the way for significant policy rate cuts
Podcast interview [plus VIDEO] with AI expert: Could Artificial Intelligence turn out to be the panacea to the EU's problems? [English and Danish]
26. January 2024
ECB's Lagarde talks about policy rate cuts - but the room of maneuvring is limited
25. January 2024
Strikes and Berlin in disarray are reflected in yet another weak IFO survey, indicating a deeper recession in 2024
Beijing's dilemma: More of the same that created the current problems or real economic reforms 'without Chinese characteristics'?
23. January 2024
There will not be any updates on January 23 and 24 due to a business trip
22. January 2024
Social and political chaos in Germany should not be a surprise. More is in the pipeline
USA: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey once again shows the difference between today and 2008-2010
19. January 2024
Is artificial intelligence a panacea for the EU? Yes, to a large extent, provided politicians do not create obstacles
16. January 2024
'Virtual China visit' - January 29 or 31 - Michael R. Chang, GM Yara Marine Technologies, Shanghai: Is China changing in the wrong direction? Register Now - 'First come, first served'
EU and Britain: Artificial Intelligence provides an excellent possibility to reduce headwinds from geopolitics and demographics if the politicians do not create obstacles
PBOC appears to be boosting liquidity - but it is not being utilised
