4. July 2025
A 'beautiful act' or a dangerous gamble? Federal debt on course to reach 186% of gross domestic product
3. July 2025
Britain and France face the same debt trap - but one crucial difference remains
1. July 2025
Japan's rising yields signal the end of the 'carry trade', which will add pressure on US and European bonds
30. June 2025
Beijing's economic control may shield against instability, but not forever
26. June 2025
Trump's 'shadow central banker' poses more downside risks to the US dollar
NATO's 5% target demands deep economic reform in Germany and the EU
25. June 2025
Insightview recommends unwinding the last leg of the 'short US equities strategy' (updated version)
24. June 2025
The Merz Effect: Why business confidence is slowly returning to Europe's largest economy
23. June 2025
President Trump now owns the Iran problem more than his predecessors
17. June 2025
There will be no updates on Thursday, June 19, and Friday, June 20, due to a business trip
The Mid-Year presentation is now available [updated on June 30]
16. June 2025
Will Beijing continue sitting on its hands as the Iran-Israel conflict threatens China's supply chain and economic interests?
13. June 2025
Israel responds this time to a real threat. Trump, Putin and Xi are accelerating nuclear proliferation
12. June 2025
Washington's budget gamble: How the Trump administration is undermining US creditworthiness
10. June 2025
Chinese exports to the EU rise sharply, but plunge to the US due to secular US-China tensions
6. June 2025
There will be no update on Monday, 9 June, due to a public holiday in Denmark
America in disarray: How Trump's inner circle is unravelling at a critical time
5. June 2025
Germany's turning point: Friedrich Merz's soaring approval rating, reform, and the irreversible transatlantic rift
4. June 2025
Two decisive events: Beijing loses its most influential asset in the White House while Ukraine exposes a global military blind spot
3. June 2025
'Taco' fails to lower inflation expectations or improve business sentiment. The Revenge Tax
2. June 2025
China: European companies face growing pressure in China - Yet, outsourcing increases
28. May 2025
There will be no updates on May 29 and 30 due to public holidays in Denmark
USA: The decisive credit rating difference between the 'willingness' and 'ability' to repay debt
27. May 2025
Friedrich Merz's plans create polarisation but not one-sided resistance, which is a Merz victory
23. May 2025
Real yields on US Treasuries are headed towards the 1990s levels
21. May 2025
Rising Japanese government bond yields represent another risk factor for global asset prices
20. May 2025
The most significant risks to the US stock market: Donald Trump and a German chancellor in a real hurry
19. May 2025
The US-China Trade War Is Not Going Away. Next Stop - US Debt Crisis
15. May 2025
An imbalance of savings and strength. Did Trump's weakness prevent Chinese reform?
13. May 2025
Trump 2.0 has no plan to solve America’s debt problem, making US treasuries far more risky. Whose interests does Trump serve?
12. May 2025
From chaos to compromise: A relief for the stock market but Trump is falling into the classic Chinese trap - 'promises'
9. May 2025
China's trade report reveals a weak economy. The intractable trade war will settle at lower but still destructive tariff levels
8. May 2025
Trump 2.0 has burned all bridges. The European Union's opportunity in an increasingly hostile world
7. May 2025
Insightview recommends renewing short positions on US equities
Podcast interview with Netcompany's CEO, Andre Rogaczewski: 'Stand Tall, Europe'. How do we do that?
6. May 2025
A historic setback in the Bundestag: What comes next for Germany?
5. May 2025
The Trump movement is pulling in all directions as doubts grow among MAGA supporters
1. May 2025
Trump's U-turn offers another chance to sell US equities. The damage is done
29. April 2025
If we absolutely must have a trade war, the timing cannot be better for the European Union
28. April 2025
Podcast interview with the President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China: Torn between Washington and Beijing. EU's uncertain trade future
Donald Trump's import tariffs have failed. The White House is in disarray
24. April 2025
The trade war weighs more heavily than massive investments. Germany and the EU face a dilemma
22. April 2025
Trump went all in and now stands to lose everything, potentially triggering a significant downturn in the United States. One man's loss is another man's gain
15. April 2025
There will be no updates from April 16 to 21 due to the Easter holiday
A brief update on the political situation in Germany: An 'unlikely pair' plans to form a government
14. April 2025
Trump inflicts irreversible damage on the economy. The reserve currency status is under threat. An opportunity for the EU towards China
12. April 2025
Podcast discussion: EU's dependence on the United States - and how the EU creates strategic autonomy - ENGLISH and DANISH transcripts
9. April 2025
'Wollt Ihr den totalen Handelskrieg?' Beijing says 'yes'
8. April 2025
Trumponomics hits small business sentiment. Inflation up. The path to reconciliation is blocked
7. April 2025
Insightview recommends taking profit on underweight/short positions in US equities
4. April 2025
Podcast Interview with former NATO ambassador Michael Zilmer-Johns - How should Europe respond to an unpredictable United States? ENGLISH and DANISH transcript
The USA lies in the bed it made. The latest signals from the White House offer no grounds for optimism
31. March 2025
There will be no updates on April 1 and April 2
The United States' trading partners are forcing Donald Trump onto thin ice, and therefore, he will soon lose his composure
28. March 2025
EU aims to kill two birds with one stone in the trade war - targeting the US tech sector
26. March 2025
Trumpomics eliminates all domestic and foreign demand. A 'prepared' but incompetent White House is playing with fire
25. March 2025
IFO survey and the latest opinion poll: Berlin's window of opportunity must be used now - it could close very quickly
24. March 2025
Germany's defence and infrastructure investment boom is an opportunity for France - but nothing is guaranteed in a geopolitically shifting Europe
20. March 2025
The Trump administration threw a boomerang - and now it is coming back with a vengeance
Is the trade war between the EU and the US escalating to a higher level?
18. March 2025
China has hit the bottom - but there are no signs of a self-propelled growth recovery
There is a clear path for changes to Germany's debt brake. What are the consequences for the equity and bond markets?
17. March 2025
Donald Trump has shut down the engines of growth due to the self-inflicted chaos. A significant opportunity for Europe
14. March 2025
Germany's debt brake: Friedrich Merz to pay the Green Party a 'penalty for stupidity'
13. March 2025
The Trump administration's amateurish approach has reinforced the budget problems
12. March 2025
Podcast Interview with Military Analyst Jakob Clod Asmund: Does Europe have what it takes to replace the USA's capabilities in military space operations?
11. March 2025
The NFIB survey reveals significant cracks in the foundation of Trump 2.0, which will be challenging to repair
Germany: The Greens obstruct changes to the debt brake
10. March 2025
Donald Trump tries to control the narrative: It may be necessary to make America poor again before reaching 'Nirvana'
7. March 2025
The true Zeitenwende in German politics: What will happen in the coming weeks, and what are the consequences for European business and the bond market?
5. March 2025
Podcast Interview with Defence Analyst Hans Peter H. Michaelsen: How can Europe become capable of defending itself militarily?
Germany delivers the very best news for Europe. Defence spending will be 'whatever it takes,' with no upper limit
4. March 2025
By Invitation: The Chinese concern about 'a reverse Kissinger'
The Trump avalanche has started. A dirty trade war is the foundation for a much larger European tech and defence industry
28. February 2025
There will be no updates on Monday, March 3, 2025
Germany is likely to approve a 200 billion euro defence package in the 'old parliament' - but the fate of the debt brake remains uncertain
26. February 2025
US consumers suddenly realise that Trump 2.0 is not just targeting so-called allies. Recession or stagflation?
25. February 2025
Friedrich Merz is the right man to clean up after Angela Merkel. A tiny 'debt brake window' remains open
24. February 2025
Germany has voted. The outcome could have been worse. The debt brake is a hurdle
21. February 2025
The negative consequences of Trump tariffs emerge in the USA - but they may be part of the solution in Europe
19. February 2025
China's house prices continue to reflect an economy lacking momentum. Does Beijing once again believe in private entrepreneurship?
17. February 2025
The Atlantic alliance is dead. Trump's import tariffs will create room for massive rearmament in Europe. USA will struggle to replace imports without causing inflation
13. February 2025
There will be no updates on Friday, February 14, 2025
Does a deal made by Trump and Putin mean 'peace' or is it a signal for massive rearmament in the European Union?
11. February 2025
Friedrich Merz positions CDU/CSU to win back 'uncomfortable' AfD voters. SPD risks division
10. February 2025
The inevitable trade war between the US and the European Union. Can Trump get union leaders to kiss the ring?
7. February 2025
Everything points to significant policy rate hikes in Japan and yen appreciation. Prime Minister Ishiba is visiting Washington
6. February 2025
Complexity: Friedrich Merz dares to confront immigration - and has the public on his side - but Merz is not 'likeable'
4. February 2025
Insightview recommends selling US stocks
3. February 2025
The inflation report visualises the many constraints in the Eurozone. The EU and the US are moving away from each other
The EU faces high risks in a trade war - but Trump's 'tariff boomerang' will also hit the US hard. Anti-American sentiment is rising
30. January 2025
EU survey shows no signs of improvement. AfD gains ground. Cracks in Germany's firewall - and CDU/CSU
Podcast Interview with military analyst Rasmus Ross: Today's wars demand technological and industrial flexibility on an unprecedented scale
27. January 2025
Germany needs dramatic change - but opinion polls continue to point in a different direction
24. January 2025
The Bank of Japan raises policy rates: Geopolitics and demographics leave no other option
Now, the EU countries suddenly want to act 'decisively' - but the EU is no longer in control of its own destiny
23. January 2025
Presentation: Outlook 2025 slides
21. January 2025
Does Donald Trump's 'benign' inauguration speech reflect a reality check in Washington?
20. January 2025
Geopolitics and a lack of political renewal push Friedrich Merz's CDU-CSU below 30% in new opinion poll
17. January 2025
China: It is good to be the King of Statistics. Surprise. Beijing hits its growth target
16. January 2025
USA: The December inflation report does not alter rising inflationary pressure in 2025. DOGE needs to deliver in a more hostile environment
15. January 2025
China Presentation - China is an economic success that challenges Western democracies - Yet, the Chinese doubt whether 'tomorrow will be better than today'
13. January 2025
China's trade statistics reveal much about what might be coming, according to Beijing
9. January 2025
Interest rate turmoil in the United Kingdom will spread to the Eurozone after the election in Germany
7. January 2025
German Election Could Create Even More Chaos for the EU: Support for the AfD is rising sharply
6. January 2025
China faces significant economic challenges that can be 'easily' resolved - but is the solution what the Communist Party desires?
Trump 2.0 runs into chaos, further benefiting a well-prepared China. Elon Musk vs MAGA could derail Trump 2.0
18. December 2024
Due to the Christmas holidays, there will be no activity on the website from 19 December to 3 January [both days included]
17. December 2024
IFO: Market forces operate perfectly in the German labour market - but Berlin and the corporate sector left the economy off-side
16. December 2024
China's Economy: More talk than action from Beijing
13. December 2024
More skeletons fall out of the closet in Germany. Electricity prices are skyrocketing despite weak industrial production
10. December 2024
President Xi Jinping faces significant setbacks - but don't expect leniency from Beijing
9. December 2024
What does Assad's fall mean for Trump 2.0? Everything, as Iran edges closer to developing nuclear weapons
The Department of Government Efficiency's success is a necessity for Trump 2.0
6. December 2024
China will find it difficult to deviate from the 'path of Japanification'
3. December 2024
Germany chose low debt, thereby leaving itself alone on the platform. This will change radically after the election
2. December 2024
Does the EU have the political stability to create change? Will voters support the 'old Guard'?
28. November 2024
EU stands at a crossroads - Households increasingly worried about unemployment - Private consumption will not drive the economy
27. November 2024
China is 'prepared', and Trump 2.0 is 'prepared' - but that is the problem
26. November 2024
Trump 2.0 shows 'good governance' - so far - but the pressure on the Europeans has begun
25. November 2024
Germany faces a massive challenge - and a 'peace deal' in Ukraine will only worsen the financial strain
21. November 2024
The US and the EU face necessary tasks that will increase budget deficits. A peace deal in Ukraine will add even more financial pressure on the EU
19. November 2024
What could go wrong in the German federal election? Quite a lot
15. November 2024
China will test Trump 2.0 for 'empty' threats. Has the US prepared for a hawkish response from Beijing?
14. November 2024
The appointments show that the Trump administration is all in this time - but the president-elect suffers a significant defeat in the Senate
12. November 2024
A 'professional' Trump administration with many contradictions. Chaos will gain the upper hand later in 2025
11. November 2024
China is well-prepared for Trump version 2.0. Beijing's window of opportunity has been - and remains - wide open since 2011
8. November 2024
A compelling Friedrich Merz election victory will transform Germany and the European Union - but this is the last call
7. November 2024
Germany is in a hurry, a real hurry. The window of opportunity will close quickly in 2025
6. November 2024
A convincing Trump victory will hit US allies hard. The risk of 'crowding out' and inflation necessitates significant public spending cuts
5. November 2024
A relationship in Berlin without love likely means an impending divorce. Tomorrow?
4. November 2024
Are expectations for Beijing's fiscal package too high? The largest German companies underestimate the geopolitical situation
1. November 2024
The British Labour government's budget highlights the extent to which fiscal flexibility has diminished in Europe
31. October 2024
The EU Business and Consumer Survey illustrates the reality facing the European Union. The bond market should take note of this
29. October 2024
VW's conflict with the trade unions could prove decisive in Germany and the rest of the Eurozone. A positive outcome is possible, but it will be an exceptionally challenging task
28. October 2024
NPC Meeting: Beijing knows what is suitable for the Communist Party - but not necessarily for China with plenty of 'capitalist characteristics'
Donald Trump's 'second term', the EU's security situation - and what Russia's wartime economy might indicate for the European bond market
25. October 2024
Mr Scholz, Tear Down This Government Coalition - and Call Elections
24. October 2024
The skeletons are falling out of the closet in Germany and France. This demands action. Monetary or Fiscal expansion - or both?
22. October 2024
The Impact of a Trump Victory on the European Bond Market: What Investors Need to Know
21. October 2024
Friedrich Merz sees a significant rise in support in opinion polls. The Schuldenbremse discussion intensifies
18. October 2024
Chinese house prices continued their 'free fall' in September, with consumer confidence at rock bottom - yet the economy still grew in Q3. What exactly does Beijing want?
17. October 2024
ECB set to cut rates today. EU politicians pushing for self-sufficiency will lift the floor for policy rates
15. October 2024
German politics will be crucial for the European Union. Friedrich Merz faces a challenging task as the 'next' Chancellor
14. October 2024
China could solve the overcapacity problem instantly - but Beijing has no plans to change a 'successful strategy'
11. October 2024
Avoiding a bearish steepening of the Eurozone yield curve will be challenging
8. October 2024
Due to a business trip, there will be no updates on the website Wednesday-Thursday [October 9-10]. Therefore, there will also be no Weekly Newsletter next week
The US Federal Reserve will find it challenging to lower policy rates significantly in 2025
Beijing has chosen an expensive approach without reforms to a structural crisis. The ideological direction remains unchanged
7. October 2024
Recession and lack of action in Berlin further fuel AfD's rise in opinion polls. The risk of stagflation in the Eurozone will prevail in 2025
4. October 2024
USA: Early and late-leading indicators all point towards a reacceleration in the demand side in the first half of 2025
3. October 2024
The Western world faces a prolonged period of supply-side volatility. Central banks' minimum interest rates will be higher than before
2. October 2024
Israel views Iran's attack as a welcome 'invitation' to launch comprehensive strikes on Tehran's nuclear weapons programme. Israel sees Iran as an existential threat
1. October 2024
EU: Massive infrastructure investments - both public and private - are coming, but the room for manoeuvre is limited. The risk of stagflation is high
30. September 2024
Podcast interview with Danish TV2's China correspondent in Beijing: 'It no longer matters whether the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice. It has to be red'
27. September 2024
Beijing finally gave in. Now, Berlin needs to remove its blinders to help Germany and the Eurozone
China's extensive 'firefighting' following yet another miscalculation in Beijing. Stimulus measures will be China First and higher commodity prices
26. September 2024
Chairman Powell may be on the road to making the next policy mistake - overly optimistic rate cut expectations
24. September 2024
China inflates the balloon one week before the 75th anniversary - but fiscal stimulus is, so far, absent
23. September 2024
German Politicians with Blinders Risk Creating Chaos in the EU: The Perfect Outcome is Narrow
China 'adjusts' to reduce the risk of social unrest, but the direction remains the same. The consequences for the EU will be significant
19. September 2024
The Federal Reserve did the right thing, but it gives food for thought in the bond market
18. September 2024
Podcast interview with Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, PIIE and Bruegel: Does the EU have what it takes to avoid falling further behind?
17. September 2024
Eurozone: Wage pressure will not disappear. The outcome of the VW labour conflict will be crucial for Germany and the entire EU. Intel cancels factory in Magdeburg
13. September 2024
China no longer has wise political leaders - but weak EU leaders continue to fall for old tricks in Beijing
12. September 2024
The Eurozone faces chaotic years ahead - and the ECB cannot help much this time. The AfD is looking forward to the 2025 election
11. September 2024
In the West, the risk of stagflation is likely more significant than the risk of recession
10. September 2024
The final version of the Mid-Year Update Presentation is now available here
9. September 2024
The Eurozone and the USA face a complicated period of policy rate cuts
30. August 2024
There will be no updates on August 31-September 9 due to vacation
EU: The UN Population Revision 2024 shows even stronger demographic headwinds unless politicians promote rather than hinder the spread of Artificial Intelligence
28. August 2024
USA: Falling inflation, a 50 basis points rate cut, and a new growth leg sound almost too good to be true. It is, indeed!
26. August 2024
IFO survey: Germany's industry is in deep trouble, but Berlin is still wearing blinders
22. August 2024
Germany's Economic Crisis in Slow-Motion: Berlin needs to act decisively before it is too late
21. August 2024
Podcast interview with military tech expert Andreas Graae: Does Denmark have the right defence for future military conflicts?
20. August 2024
Insightview's perspective on the US Federal Reserve's potential policy shift, recession, the Presidential election, the bond and stock markets
16. August 2024
AI, Demographics, and Geopolitics - and What It Means for the Stock Market [article and video]
15. August 2024
China: Everything points towards an 'asset price recession' unless stubbornness is replaced by realism in Beijing
14. August 2024
The Federal Reserve's path of policy rate cuts and the implications for the bond market
13. August 2024
A steepening US yield curve 'assumes' the Federal Reserve will do the 'right thing.' A robust NFIB survey shows why this will not be a classic economic slowdown
12. August 2024
State elections in Germany: Sahra Wagenknecht benefits from the 'bookkeeper approach' in Berlin
9. August 2024
The impact of AI on the US economy: Is divergence between SP500 market cap and nominal GDP too high?
7. August 2024
The US Federal Reserve is likely more nervous than investors due to a significant decline in TIPS inflation expectations
6. August 2024
Navigating the market bubble without losing sight of the big picture: ISM service survey brings relief to a nervous stock market
5. August 2024
The blinders are off. A different aftermath due to a markedly different environment than in the past
2. August 2024
The Bank of Japan, yen repatriation, US 'recession' and 'growth panic': Does 'what did not happen earlier' unfold now? What are the consequences?
A Federal Reserve policy rate cut of 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points cannot be ruled out following a surprisingly weak ISM survey
1. August 2024
China's economy: Who speaks up if things go in the wrong direction?
31. July 2024
Eurozone: The factors driving service inflation will not disappear in the next many years
30. July 2024
Berlin 'saving itself to death' has now become the Eurozone's biggest problem
29. July 2024
The US Federal Reserve and the ECB will lower policy rates, but the decision could suddenly appear in a different light
26. July 2024
US Q2 growth report, a steepening yield curve and geopolitics make the coming quarters a delicate balancing act for the Federal Reserve
25. July 2024
The economic undercurrent gains the upper hand in the Eurozone with huge political consequences to come
24. July 2024
Is the financial market wearing blinders?
22. July 2024
The Third Plenum meeting reinforces Xi Jinping's direction - more of the same that triggered the trade conflicts
Summary of the 'Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Deepening Reform and Advancing Chinese Modernisation'
19. July 2024
A short note on strong regional Philadelphia Fed surveys in the United States
18. July 2024
Weather Forecast: 'Hurricane-like Winds with Shifting Directions and the Formation of New Inflation Clouds in the Western Region. Unstable Fronts with Isolationist Trump-Vance Leadership'
16. July 2024
The next Trump administration could push the EU into a dangerous security vacuum
15. July 2024
The political impact of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump before and after the election
