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4. June 2020
THERE WILL BE NO UPDATES ON JUNE 5 DUE TO A PUBLIC HOLIDAY IN DENMARK
ECB President Lagarde does nothing to hide that the role of the central bank has reached the limit. The case for a stronger euro remains strong despite PEPP increase
Germany launches yet another fiscal stimulus package - 'Wir machen das weil wir es uns leisten können'
3. June 2020
USA: ISM service survey shows a very slow economic rebound. The economy faces a bumpy road
Germany: Unemployment skyrockets in May. 'Kurzarbeit Scheme' keeps unemployment at an artificially low level - for now
Sweden: The service PMI index fails to make a decisive rebound in May, as households, to no small extent, react in the same way as the rest of Europe
China: Caixin service PMI index jumps sharply in May after a disappointing survey in April
Podcast interview with a Singaporean entrepreneur in China about what comes next [FREE ACCESS]
2. June 2020
The US stock market sees declining 'immunity' despite money printing: Sell the US stock market
China: Manufacturing PMI survey shows a slow restart of the economy. More stimulus measures will be needed, according to Beijing
USA: ISM manufacturing survey barely shows improvement. Social tensions pose risks to the 'reopening' and the stock market
31. May 2020
By Invitation: May session of China's National People's Congress held in the shadow of escalating China-US conflict 
29. May 2020
Switzerland: Surprisingly few signs of a rebound in the May KOF Institute survey. The headline index fell to a new record low
Japan: Industrial output and retail sales take a beating in April - more downside in May. Tokyo is left 'defenceless'
The case for a stronger euro against the US dollar continues to gain support from several factors
28. May 2020
USA: Better-than-expected durable goods orders and business surveys should make investors think twice about the need for more fiscal stimulus measures. This is 'dollar bearish'
Euro-zone: Economic sentiment shows only marginal improvement in May, as service sentiment hits a new record-low
Sweden: The NIER Economic Tendency survey is a disappointment considering talk about 'Europe opening up'
Spain's catastrophic retail sales number is just one more factor boosting support for EU deal. Britain leaving the union makes leeway for debt-sharing - but also the revival of nationalism in rich member states
27. May 2020
China: Reluctant policymakers in Beijing are warming up to more aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures
South Korea: Manufacturing sentiment takes another beating to a new record low. Deflationary pressure rose during the 'first' coronavirus crisis
France: Disappointing May business sentiment survey underscores why President Macron is eager to 'help Italy, Spain - and France'
26. May 2020
USA: Consumer confidence in May stays at a relatively high level considering the extent of the coronavirus outbreak
USA: Regional manufacturing and non-manufacturing Philadelphia Fed surveys herald V-shaped recovery
Germany: Consumer sentiment recovers only very slowly, as the long-term outlook has deteriorated markedly
25. May 2020
Germany: IFO survey shows light at the end of the tunnel, but the manufacturing sector and the service sector remain in deep recession in Q2
EU: Franco-German deal will probably be passed, but this will not unite the union. The opposite is the case
Two Sessions: Beijing needs to launch more aggressive measures to achieve 'some economic growth' in 2020
USA: Regional Philadelphia Fed survey 'concludes' Covid-19 to disappear from the radar in the not too distant future - or has money-printing done the trick?
20. May 2020
There are no updates on May 21-22 due to public holidays
Taiwan: A highly successful virus containment strategy has protected the people and the economy. Exports orders from China jump
Japan: A sharp decline in the Reuters Tankan's manufacturing and service index heralds close to 10% contraction in Q2
Interactive presentation: Life 'after' the coronavirus outbreak - A storyboard update
19. May 2020
Britain: Jobless claimants skyrocket to the highest level since the 1960s - European policy-making creates the foundation for a negative 'economic wave' further down the road
18. May 2020
China: House prices regain momentum in April despite falling wages and soaring unemployment
A vulnerable Japan plunged into recession in Q1 before the coronavirus gained a stronger foothold
15. May 2020
USA: Industrial output falls sharply in April, but reopening talks boost manufacturing sentiment
USA: Retail sales collapse in April. A quick normalisation requires no major new virus outbreaks, which seems highly unlikely
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Sorensen from the Institute for Strategy at the Royal Danish Defence College: 'What comes after the coronavirus crisis? Has the world become less peaceful?' - [FREE ACCESS]
China: The 'restart' continued in April, but the 'new normal' is quite different and disappoints Beijing
14. May 2020
Turkey: Industrial output takes a beating in March as the first impact of the lockdown hits the shores
Podcast interview with immunology professor Jan Pravsgaard Christensen about what we know and what we do not know about the coronavirus - [FREE ACCESS]
13. May 2020
Euro-zone: Industrial output fell sharply in March as the economy was locked down
USA: April fiscal deficit skyrockets to the same level as for the full year in 2018. A failed 'restart' could make workers stay home
12. May 2020
USA: The first impact of the coronavirus outbreak is deflationary pressure, but the policy response and deglobalisation risk creating inflation pressure
USA: Surprisingly 'less downbeat' small NFIB business survey as the White House talks about restarting the economy now and not tomorrow
Australia in a much better position than most other countries continues to add support to the Aussie dollar
China: Falling factory prices show the real picture in the manufacturing sector
11. May 2020
China: There are no signs yet of aggressive monetary easing, according to April monetary statistics
7. May 2020
France: Worse-than-expected manufacturing output in March shows the extent of the economic downturn
China: April exports data much better than expected, but the 'new normal' is quite different from the 'old normal'
6. May 2020
Public holiday in Denmark on May 8
USA: Private payrolls collapse by 20.2 million jobs in April. President Trump plans restart of the economy without a credible plan
Sweden versus the rest of Europe: PMI service sentiment index declines less than in the rest of Europe
Germany: Industrial orders drop at the fastest rate since January 1991. More downside in April, according to the latest IFO survey
Spain: Unemployment skyrockets at a time when the tourist season was supposed to show the opposite. Voters are not in the mood for another decade of fiscal austerity
Podcast interview with Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer, Saxo Bank, about a global economy headed towards the 1970s [FREE ACCESS]
5. May 2020
USA: ISM service survey shows a 'slightly less' downbeat outlook although the orders and the employment index dropped to the lowest level ever recorded
Switzerland: Consumer confidence plummets to the lowest levels since the early 1970s
4. May 2020
Sweden: PMI manufacturing orders index plummets to an all-time low
1. May 2020
USA: Manufacturing sentiment plunges less than market expectations, but the survey heralds mass lay-offs in May and June
Coronavirus crisis: Adjust to the virus now. Press the 'play button' sooner rather than later or face the Great Depression II
Japan: Consumer confidence plunges to an all-time low as Tokyo's only tool, money-printing, is inefficient against a different enemy
30. April 2020
Spain: The economy contracts at the fastest rate since the Civil War in 1936-1939. No signs of relief in Q2. Help from Brussels is needed!
China: The April details in the PMI survey show few signs of a strong 'restart'. PMI export index plunges due to massive orders cancellations
France: The economy tumbles in Q1 even though the 'real crisis' started in April. Europe needs to adjust 'infrastructure' assuming a second wave will come. Euro appreciation?
29. April 2020
USA: The economy shows a sharp contraction in Q1 before the coronavirus outbreak turned into a catastrophe for the country
Euro-zone: Business and consumer survey indicates sharp economic contraction in 2020. Anecdotal evidence from China shows no signs of V-shaped recovery
Podcast interview with Anders Ellemann Kristensen in Beijing, General Manager, Albatros Travel China, about the restart and a 'less' optimistic outlook for China [FREE ACCESS]
Turkey: The biggest collapse in economic sentiment seen in the world - so far!
South Korea: A successful virus-strategy is no guarantee for an export-oriented economy, which is no stronger than the weakest link in the global supply chain
28. April 2020
USA: Inconsistent consumer survey indicates a shortlived virus crisis. Nonetheless, households may be in for a surprise
France: Consumer sentiment is falling, but not to a degree one might have feared. Nevertheless, the fear of becoming unemployed is increasing
USA: Dallas Fed manufacturing sentiment plunges in April. Spending plans and wages index collapse
27. April 2020
China: Corporate profits take a massive beating in Q1. Anecdotal evidence from Beijing International Airport shows soaring ticket prices to overseas destinations
24. April 2020
USA: 'Core' durable goods orders were stable in March, but forward-leading indicators herald 30% decline in April
Germany: IFO index plunges to a new record low, as Europe faces a deep and prolonged recession
23. April 2020
Britain: Business sentiment collapses to the lowest level since the early 1950s. Boris Johnson has turned into the most cautious 'restarter'
South Korea: The economy shows 'moderate' contraction in the first quarter of 2020. The outlook remains gloomy even though Seoul has done all the right thing
Sweden: 'Herd immunity' strategy does not make the economy immune. Economic sentiment index plummets to an all-time low in April. 'Herd immunity' versus 'Containment'
France: Service sentiment plunges to an all-time low in April. The political aftermath of virus-outbreak will radically change President Macron's political agenda
Podcast interview with Morten Springborg about how the coronavirus outbreak could change the investment environment [FREE ACCESS]
22. April 2020
Euro-zone consumer confidence plummets to the lowest level since March 2009 as policymakers try to restart the economy
Dutch households' assessment of the future economic situation plunges to an all-time low. European policymakers handle virus crisis blindfold
21. April 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business sentiment index plunges to an all-time low in April. The economy is headed towards a deep recession
Podcast interview with Professor Torben M Andersen on how Danish policymakers handle the ongoing coronavirus crisis blindfold. What do the first 'random' tests say about the extent of the virus outbreak? [FREE ACCESS]
Britain: March labour market report is history. The economy is headed towards a sharp contraction in private consumption and a steep decline in house prices
20. April 2020
Revisiting the coronavirus storyboard: The end of the beginning
Podcast interview with a 'contaminated' Danish businessman in China. The business environment for foreigners has changed significantly in China [FREE ACCESS]
17. April 2020
China: Massive economic contraction in Q1. The strategy is now 'localisation' rather than 'globalisation', and more support to state-owned enterprises. Foreigners are 'contaminated'
16. April 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed index plunges to the lowest level since 1980, but respondents also believe coronavirus crisis is a 'short-term problem'
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows a steep decline in the manufacturing index. Service sentiment hits an all-time low. Prime Minister Abe criticises WHO to divert attention from Tokyo's coronavirus strategy failure
15. April 2020
USA: Retail sales plunged during the first phase of the Covid19 crisis. Manufacturing sentiment plummets in April
Swiss consumer confidence collapses to the lowest level since the early 1970s
Correct, Covid19 is not the same as in 2008 - it is worse! French retail sales plunge by 24% in March and Australian consumer confidence shows the steepest collapse seen in the last 47 years.
14. April 2020
Australia: Business confidence plummets to the lowest level ever recorded. A deep recession is in the pipeline
China: The 'restart' remains on track, but the 'new normal' means significantly slower growth
By Invitation: After the mask - what will happen at China’s next parliamentary session?
A 'smart restart' of Europe requires 'qualified estimates' of infected persons based on random national testing and a radical change of doing business. WHO says it is unclear whether recovered patients are immune
8. April 2020
Japan: Service sentiment plunges to an all-time low, as Tokyo fails to rein in the coronavirus outbreak
VIDEO: China's restart - Households are increasingly acting as they did before the coronavirus outbreak
7. April 2020
A necessary but risky restart of Europe's economy has begun: Denmark opts for a peculiar restart strategy or has the 'curve' simply turned too flat?
6. April 2020
Japan: Consumer confidence plunges to the lowest level since March 2009 as the coronavirus outbreak appears out of control
Why are national health authorities not listening to anecdotal evidence from Asia? Credibility is needed if a 'second wave' were to emerge
Germany: Industrial orders fell less-than-expected in February. Nonetheless, IFO survey heralded orders to plunge by 20% shortly before the number of infected persons stood at only 2,700
Britain: Consumer confidence plummets to the lowest level since 2009 shortly before the coronavirus truth was available to the public - Bank of England is not in the mood of money-printing
3. April 2020
USA: The March ISM service index declines much less than market expectations. That said, the situation will deteriorate significantly in April
USA: Nonfarm payrolls plummeted by 701,000 as the report only takes into account payroll activity through March 14. April unemployment rate above 10% is highly likely
Euro-zone: Panic-buying boosts retail sales in February. March retail sales could collapse in the range of 20% to 30%
China: Private service PMI survey shows what lies ahead for the mainland and the rest of the world
2. April 2020
Coronavirus outbreak in Europe: Investors and companies face a future with national health authorities knowing less than they believed in January
Spain: The number of unemployed skyrockets at the worst possible time shortly before peak season
1. April 2020
ISM survey: USA pays a heavy price for a President, who has been more interested in protecting the economy and investors at the expense of ordinary people's health. Both are now losing big time
Sweden: PMI index plunges to the lowest level since April 2009. This time the Riksbank's classic monetary response will not make a difference. Instead, the focus is now on Swedish health authorities
China: A strong rebound in the Caixin PMI index shows that the 'restart process' has begun - but the risk of a 'second wave' this autumn dents the long-term growth potential
31. March 2020
USA: Consumer confidence declines less than expected but based on a preliminary survey conducted before March 19
South Korea: A highly successful containment and testing strategy will not prevent significant economic damage. Business sentiment plunges to the lowest level since 2009
China: A successful containment strategy boosts business sentiment, but the road to 'normal' will be an uphill struggle
30. March 2020
EU business and consumer survey shows a steep decline in economic sentiment. The lockdown makes it impossible for many respondents to create feedback
VIDEO Interview: How is China's 'restart' progressing - and what can Europe learn?
27. March 2020
Declining European consumer and business confidence raises the first critical questions about the shut-down strategy. What would have happened without the shut-down?
26. March 2020
Europe should hurry to create a new 'infrastructure' and social behaviour that will make people feel safe when the 'restart' begins in May - if we are lucky
France: Service sentiment plunged even before the number of infected persons skyrocketed in the second half of March
25. March 2020
USA: No major coronavirus impact on durable goods orders in February. This will change radically in March and the second quarter
Germany: IFO index plummets to the lowest level since 2008 as the coronavirus outbreak hits the shores. The service sentiment index hit a new all-time low
Coronavirus crisis: The aftermath of the 'first wave' is critical for the consequences of the 'second wave'. Do not bet on President Trump to solve the crisis
24. March 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed service sentiment index collapses to the lowest level on record
Britain: Manufacturing sentiment fell sharply before the number of infected persons skyrocketed in the country. Light at the end of the tunnel in Italy
23. March 2020
South Korea and Taiwan: The economy benefits from a successful containment strategy. Europe and the United States pay a high price for a failed strategy
20. March 2020
USA: The housing market was buoyant shortly before the coronavirus outbreak hit the shores. More than 14000 infected and still growing
Coronavirus update: Households 'playing safe' in the foreseeable future will dent global productivity for a long time to come
19. March 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed index plunges in March as the first wave of the coronavirus outbreak hits the shores
A possible economic and stock market scenario version 2.0. Containment, testing and a possible vaccine are the crucial factors - and not aggressive 'demand' stimulus measures, at least not at this stage
18. March 2020
USA: Strong housing starts report shortly before 'day zero'
Podcast interview with Steffen Schiottz-Christensen about a slow 'restart process' in China. A 'survival kit' for Europeans in the coming weeks and months [FREE ACCESS]
17. March 2020
US retail sales report: Silence before the storm - containment first followed by fiscal stimulus later
Japan: Reuters Tankan business sentiment plummets to the lowest level since 2009
16. March 2020
US Empire State headline index plummets as the first wave of coronavirus outbreak hits the shores
Europe getting it's act together gives rise to some optimism - 'Containment' and stabilising the banking system are the key factors rather than fiscal and monetary easing
China: Economic activity plummets in February in line with anecdotal evidence. Light at the end of the tunnel. 'Containment' is the key factor. Aggressive fiscal stimulus measures should come after 'containment'
13. March 2020
USA: Consumer sentiment index declines in March. The 'real picture' of the coronavirus outbreak could create panic among households
12. March 2020
USA: Inflation will be absent in the very near future as the virus outbreak will hit demand
Coronavirus advise from China: Face masks
11. March 2020
A possible storyboard for the global stock market in a highly unpredictable environment
Coronavirus outbreak: Learn from Taiwan today - and not tomorrow!
10. March 2020
USA: Small business sentiment stays at an elevated level. The number of coronavirus-infected skyrockets amidst a shortage of test kits
China: Skyrocketing pork prices in February. President Xi Jinping has finally enough courage for an inspection tour of Wuhan
9. March 2020
Japan: The Economy Watcher future conditions index plummets to the lowest level since 2009 as Tokyo is left without ammo 
The coronavirus is spreading uncontrollably as European and US authorities have learned little from China's severe mistakes made at the beginning of the crisis. Milan region is 'Wuhan' and Italy is 'Hubei'
6. March 2020
USA: The labour market was strong before the coronavirus hit the shores. The Federal Reserve can print money but not vaccines
Podcast interview with Tom Xiong in Shanghai about the ongoing business impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China - and what Europe can learn from China's experience [FREE ACCESS]
Germany: Industrial orders bouncing back in January is history as coronavirus cases skyrocket. Health authorities missed one important point - 30% of population is older than 60
5. March 2020
China: Q1 growth revised down again as the 'restart process' is painfully slow
Brazil: Policymakers launched several of the right reforms, but the country now faces a huge external shock and a currency going into a tailspin
4. March 2020
USA: ISM service sentiment index jumps in February and the orders index skyrockets. The coronavirus outbreak hitting the shores poses a serious threat to the economy
USA: Private employment report shows modest job gains shortly before the full impact of China's manufacturing collapse and the coronavirus outbreak hit US shores
Germany: 'Healthy' households are now exposed to the 'fear factor' as the authorities seem behind the 'coronavirus curve'
Coronavirus outbreak: China has made the storyboard for Europe and the United States. What are the implications?
3. March 2020
Euro-zone: The unemployment rate stays at the lowest level since 2008. The coronavirus hitting the shores could change the situation within a few months if the current 'containment strategy' were to fail
What comes after investors switched from 'complacency' to 'excessive fear'? The aftermath of the coronavirus outbreak could be significant for the corporate sector in China, Europe and the United States
2. March 2020
USA: Manufacturing ISM survey shows weakness shortly before the 'coronavirus fear' hits the shores of the United States
China: Anecdotal evidence from today shows manufacturing improvement but many 'bottlenecks'. Activity in the travel sector has collapsed. Service sector remains weak
Turkey makes yet another policy-mistake by opening the borders to migrants. Europe will respond differently than in 2015, which could turn ugly
Sweden: Manufacturing PMI index continues to recover to the highest level since November 2018. Export orders index skyrockets
China: The headline index in the PMI service and manufacturing surveys plummets to an all-time low in February as the 'restart' turns out to be an uphill struggle. Light at the end of the tunnel - or just the effect of the 'national team'?
28. February 2020
Turkey: Aggressive fiscal and monetary easing boosts Q4 growth. Syrian refugees enter EU after Ankara opens borders to Greece and Bulgaria
The coronavirus outbreak should raise two fundamental questions for policymakers: First, have central banks left our economy defenceless against external shocks? Second, has globalisation gone too far?
Japan: Industrial production bounced back shortly before 'day zero'. Global coordinated monetary easing is in the pipeline
27. February 2020
USA: Anaemic growth in durable goods orders in January. No profound signs of a sharp rebound in corporate spending and policymakers have no ammo to fight a 'black swan'
EU business and consumer survey showed upbeat sentiment shortly before the coronavirus hit the shores more aggressively
Must-listen Podcast interview with Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China: Is the coronavirus outbreak a wake-up call to European companies in China? Topics such as a serious shortage in the pharmaceutical sector [FREE ACCESS]
26. February 2020
USA: New home sales skyrocketed in January before the coronavirus hit the shores
France: Households were highly upbeat before the coronavirus outbreak due to a strong labour market
Anecdotal evidence from China, telling the truth and how 'nonchalant' health authorities in Europe and the United States underestimated the impact of millions of Chinese travellers and their own citizens visiting China
25. February 2020
USA: Consumer confidence remains upbeat as the coronavirus is 'far away from the shore' - at least so far
France: Business sentiment was robust 'before' the Italian coronavirus outbreak
Germany: Q4 GDP details show weak underlying growth. Coronavirus outbreak in Italy poses a significant risk to other EU countries
Take profit on the 'short US and Japanese stock market' strategy
24. February 2020
Germany: IFO survey shows no signs yet of 'coronavirus impact' - the survey was conducted before the latest outbreak in Italy - 'L-recovery' remains in the pipeline
21. February 2020
USA: Existing home sales report continues to show a robust housing market, which boosts consumer confidence - at least as long as the coronavirus stays at bay
Coronavirus outbreak: South Korean exports increase in February but the number of virus-infected jumps by 500% within a few days. Is Beijing's back-to-work strategy backfiring?
20. February 2020
Turkey: Consumer confidence declines in February close to the lowest level since 2009 despite aggressive monetary and fiscal easing
USA: Philadelphia Fed index skyrockets in February - six-month-outlook jumps
China: PBOC report shows a 'normal' rebound in monetary aggregates in January - but the trend remains weak. Aggressive monetary easing is in the pipeline
China: PBOC cuts policy rates but this will not make workers come back
19. February 2020
China: The risk of misinformation is on the rise as the main focus now is to restart the economy to strengthen a wing-shot 'core leader' in Beijing
Britain: Benign inflation, tight labour market and Boris Johnson's election victory boost business sentiment - The probability of 'significant' fiscal expansion boosted by Javid resignation
Japan: Machinery orders drop in December. The number of non-cruise-ship-related coronavirus cases has more than doubled within a few days
18. February 2020
USA: The absence, so far, of a dramatic increase in the number of virus-infected continues to support the ongoing rebound in manufacturing sentiment
Japan: The economy contracts sharply in the last quarter of 2019 as Tokyo struggles to contain the spread of the coronavirus
Germany: ZEW survey shows a steep decline in investor sentiment as the coronavirus outbreak appears to make an impact
Podcast interview with Klaus Anker Petersen, Brand House Holding, about Beijing's efforts to restart the economy, consequences for the global supply chain and not least new business opportunities created by the outbreak - recorded today [FREE ACCESS]
14. February 2020
There will be no updates on Monday - February 17
US retail sales report: A robust economy with a falling growth rate because of 'late-cycle bottle-necks'
China: Insightview reduces Q1 growth forecast again as anecdotal evidence shows slow upstart of production - podcast on Tuesday
Germany: The economy was flat in Q4 as corporate spending and consumption put a drag on growth. Headwinds in 2020 require a political response from a wing-shot Berlin
13. February 2020
France: Unemployment drops to the lowest level since 2008. Coronavirus outbreak poses a significant risk to millions of Chinese tourists visiting the country every year
USA: The fiscal deficit hitting a new record high, by courtesy of President Trump, makes the economy vulnerable
Sell a basket of the US and Japanese stock markets based on valuation and investors underestimating the global economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak
12. February 2020
Brazil's weak recovery is in jeopardy as the country's largest trading partner, China, has stalled