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13. August 2020
USA: Weekly jobless claims statistics indicate the 'pace of improvement' in the labour market to slow
USA: July federal budget report provides insight into what a Biden-Harris administration might do after the election in November
Unwind the short-Japanese-stocks strategy
12. August 2020
USA: July CPI-report shows tentative signs of inflation making a comeback. The foundation for significantly higher inflation in 2021 is building, but price pressure will remain benign in 2020
Euro-zone: Industrial activity bounces back sharply in June, but Covid19 could make more trouble in the last quarter of 2020
Britain: The economy plummeted in Q2, but June statistics and forward-looking indicators give rise for 'some optimism'
Fiscal and monetary policymakers act as if there is no tomorrow - and barely anyone opposes the approach
11. August 2020
USA: Small business sentiment remains buoyant supported by fiscal and monetary policymakers going berserk
Germany: Investor sentiment jumps to the highest level since 2004
A sharp drop in the Economy Watchers survey's 'future conditions index' underscores the vulnerability of the Japanese economy and stock market
10. August 2020
China: A benign inflation picture, a successful Covid19 strategy and more than 150 million domestic tourists staying home benefit the economy
US employment report: The failure to control the first wave of Covid19 puts a drag on the reopening process
25. July 2020
Vacation: There will be no updates from July 25 to August 9 due to vacation
24. July 2020
‌‌Italy is not too big to fail; Italy is too big to save
Britain: Retail sales bounce back strongly in June, but household sentiment remains depressed
The global growth outlook deteriorates: 'First wave', 'second wave' and geopolitical risks creating massive headwinds to an overpriced global stock market
23. July 2020
USA: Weekly jobless claims show slowing progress in the labour market as the basis for unprecedented fiscal stimulus measures cracks
Germany: Consumer confidence skyrockets as households see a contained virus outbreak and unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures
France: Service sentiment skyrockets in July but no signs of a rebound in export optimism
South Korea: The economy contracts at the fastest pace since 1998 as a successful Covid19 strategy does not make the economy immune
22. July 2020
USA: Existing home sales bounce back supported by historically low mortgage rates
The global stock market discounting an 'efficient, reliable and fast-track' vaccine in 2020 leaves no room for growth disappointment
21. July 2020
A short note on the EU recovery deal
20. July 2020
Japan: June trade report sees no signs of a rebound in global trade
17. July 2020
USA: University of Michigan consumer survey is the first significant warning to policymakers not to ignore the ongoing resurgence of new daily Covid19 cases
16. July 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey continues to herald a strong manufacturing rebound, but the six-month outlook index falls sharply
USA: June retail sales report shows that market consensus for 2020 is too pessimistic - at least for the time being
Britain: A better-than-expected labour market report does not change the fact the country is in big economic trouble
China: Domestic growth drivers in the hands of Beijing boost Q2 growth. Chinese exporters face a world drawing a line in the sand because of President Xi Jinping's assertive foreign policy
15. July 2020
USA: Industrial output bounces back in June, and more to come in Q3 - but Covid19 outbreak is out of control
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows a 'surprisingly' weak rebound in manufacturing sentiment, but the domestic-oriented service sentiment index jumps in July
A virus changes Berlin’s political landscape - Is Germany finally ready for a Bavarian Chancellor?
14. July 2020
US small business sentiment continues to recover as money printing and soaring federal deficit support the economy. Capital spending plans remain depressed
China: June trade report shows net-export was not a significant growth-contributor in Q2
USA: The federal fiscal deficit skyrockets to 15% of GDP. It's 'feeling safe, stupid'
13. July 2020
Turkey: Ankara launching aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures erodes the foundation of the lira
Podcast interview with The Economist's Asia economics editor, Simon Rabinovitch, on China's economic and political situation - and how Beijing handles a hostile global environment
10. July 2020
USA: Deflationary pressure prevails in the short run, not least as policymakers are not in control of Covid19. Nonetheless, the foundation for higher inflation is building
France: Manufacturing activity skyrockets in May reinforced by over-reacting policymakers, but an unpredictable coronavirus outbreak will put a lid on growth in 2021
Podcast interview with Lene Winther, Berlingske's China expert, on the implications of Europe drawing a line in the sand due to a more self-assertive leadership in Beijing [FREE ACCESS]
9. July 2020
Germany: Pan-European stimulus measures will provide short-term support to exporters, but they face secular headwinds
China: Slowing producer price deflation in June indicates a manufacturing rebound gaining momentum. Beijing sponsors stock market rally
8. July 2020
Japan: Service sentiment bounces back as Tokyo takes out the classic 'cutting-corners' tools
7. July 2020
A short note on the latest spikes in Covid19 cases around the world
Germany: The manufacturing rebound is on track supported by a fiscal and monetary 'over-reaction' - but growth in 2021 is forecast to disappoint
Household spending plummets in May despite the fact that Japan has been among the least locked-down economies
6. July 2020
USA: Strong ISM service survey underscores that growth could prove less downbeat in 2020 than forecast by the market consensus. This gives rise to food for thoughts when it comes to new stimulus measures
Euro-zone: May retail sales report shows, Q2 GDP growth could surprise to the upside
Spain: The rebound in the 'periphery' could stall without financial support now and not tomorrow
Germany: Industrial orders bounce back at a slower pace than predicted, but IFO survey heralds stronger recovery in June and July
3. July 2020
China: 'Strong' Caixin service survey disguises anecdotal picture of a far more gloomy economic situation on the mainland. Negative growth in 2020 remains the forecast
Australia: Retail sales bounce back sharply in May. Covid19 outbreak in Melbourne poses no short-term threat, but it shows the vulnerability of the economy
2. July 2020
USA: Strong employment report in June - more in the pipeline in July and August, as the economy reopens - prematurely
1. July 2020
USA: Manufacturing ISM index skyrockets to the highest level since April 2019, as a 'premature' reopening has started
'Commercial': Interesting TV interview with one of Denmark's leading virus experts
Europe: Sweden's PMI survey finally shows a rebound in export sentiment, but Europe faces a 'second wave' after using all ammo on the 'first wave' of Covid19
Japan: The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey shows a steep decline in business sentiment. The valuation of the Japanese stock market leaves no room for disappointment
30. June 2020
Switzerland: The leading KOF economic barometer index disappoints despite a steep rebound in business sentiment in neighbouring Germany
China: 'Strong' PMI survey shows higher 'output' supported by stimulus measures, but China faces heavy headwinds from increasing hostility abroad
South Korea: Industrial output contracts sharply in May, as the recovery disappoints
29. June 2020
Turkey: The 'expected' rebound gains momentum, as all stimulus engines are running. Policy rates have moved below the annual rate of inflation
EU Commission survey: Policymakers spending all their ammo to fight the economic impact of the 'first wave' boosts sentiment, but this will leave countries empty-handed after a 'second wave' of Covid19
China: Industrial profit data do not change the fact that the economy is headed towards economic contraction in 2020. There is no easy way out of the coronavirus crisis
26. June 2020
Italy: Business and consumer sentiment bounces back in June. The economy will do much better in 2020 than market consensus and not least the IMF forecast
France: INSEE's leading consumer confidence survey shows a sharp rebound in sentiment, which remains significantly higher than seen during the financial crisis in 2008
Surprisingly weak IMF 2020 growth forecast. Conversely, surprisingly upbeat 2021 growth, which must assume a 'well-tested' Covid19-vaccine is here 'tomorrow' - although highly unlikely
25. June 2020
USA: Massive stimulus measures and disorderly reopening process boost durable goods orders - but policymakers are left empty-handed for the 'second wave'
Germany: Consumer sentiment bounces back supported by successful virus control and a sledgehammer of fiscal support. Danish retail sales skyrocket to the highest level since 2008
Follow-up macroeconomic chart update: Policy-mistakes just keep coming. The focus should be on preparing the infrastructure for the 'second wave'. Follow Germany!
24. June 2020
Sweden: The leading June economic sentiment survey fails to show the same economic rebound as in Germany
Germany: IFO survey is a harbinger of a strong rebound. Did policymakers use a sledgehammer to crack what could prove to be a nut?
France: The leading Insee manufacturing business survey disappoints while the service sentiment index skyrockets in June
23. June 2020
USA: New home sales skyrocketing in May indicate that an external shock has, so far, yet again created tailwinds rather than headwinds
Britain: A weak CBI Industrial Trend Survey underscores why the 'old Boris Johnson' is now back in charge of the Covid19-strategy
19. June 2020
There will be no updates on Monday - June 22
Britain: Retail sales bounce back sharply as Covid19-related cases decline. 'A third of furloughed employees asked to work while firms get government handouts'
18. June 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows that the manufacturing sector is back to 'normal' - or more precisely, back into the 'boom zone'
Australia: The number of jobless skyrockets in May - the labour participation rate plunges - the Aussie dollar will see support from fiscal stimulus measures
Podcast interview with Steffen Schiottz-Christensen about how China's restart process is progressing, a serious virus outbreak in Beijing and doing business in a more hostile environment for foreigners [FREE ACCESS]
17. June 2020
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey continues to show a gloomy outlook for the manufacturing and service sector. Japan's stock market has performed surprisingly well considering a downbeat global trade outlook
16. June 2020
USA: Skyrocketing retail sales in May show that 'surprisingly' upbeat business and consumer sentiment surveys have been a reflection of the 'real situation' in the economy
Germany: Investor sentiment hits the highest level since 2005 inflating the gap to corporate sentiment
Britain: Jobless claimants skyrocket in May. Prime Minister Johnson is unprepared for an 'unavoidable' second wave. The same applies to the rest of Europe and not least the United States
15. June 2020
China on a fragile path of economic rebound should be seen as a warning to European policymakers. The price of containment is high but needed
12. June 2020
USA: Consumer sentiment stays at a relatively high level considering the extent of the coronavirus outbreak. No signs of the worst crisis since the Second World War
Turkey: Industrial production collapses by 31% in April, as the country could plunge into the second recession in two years
Euro-zone industrial production plunges in April, but May-June report is expected to show a 'huge' rebound in manufacturing output
Britain: The economy collapses by 20% in April after Prime Minister Johnson changed policy to 'containment'
11. June 2020
USA: Producer price report shows mild deflationary pressure. New virus clusters show the country reopens the economy too quickly
Italy: Industrial output plummets in April, but output to bounce back from June and beyond. Alas, the tourist season 2020 seems to be a lost cause. Debt-sharing needed, but rich EU member states have their own problems
The Federal Reserve cements its role as the primary sponsor of inequality in the United States 'until at least the end of 2022'. Monetary policy is no panacea for mitigating the impact of Covid19
10. June 2020
China: May monetary statistics still show no evidence of aggressive monetary easing measures
Australia: Consumer and business sentiment bounces back sharply as the country benefits from a highly successful virus containment policy and fiscal prudence in the past
China: Inflation report continues to show that the 'new normal' is deflationary, at least in the short run
9. June 2020
USA: Small business sentiment survey still shows no signs of a crisis similar to the Great Recession in 2008 - which is a surprise considering the lockdown
Germany: Exports plunge in April at the fastest annual rate since 1963. 'Temporary' fiscal support measures will soon turn into 'permanent' all over Europe
8. June 2020
Podcast interview with Peter Boegh Hansen, Danish Industry China, who sees significant interest from Danish companies considering to enter the world's second-largest economy [FREE ACCESS]
Japan: Economy Watcher 'future conditions index' soars in May - but Prime Minister Abe's approval rating continues lower
Germany: Industrial orders plunge in April, but orders expected to bounce back sharply in May. The US withdrawing troops will force Berlin to boost defence spending more rapidly
USA: Nonfarm payrolls skyrocket at the fastest pace ever recorded. Take-profit on short-dollar-long-euro strategy and take-loss on short-US-stock-market