24. March 2023
No updates from April 17th to April 28th
Japan: The quality of being 'long the yen' - even without monetary tightening
23. March 2023
USA: The banking crisis and Wall Street investors distract the Federal Reserve, but Chairman Powell will stay the course
22. March 2023
Britain: Inflation will not go away as central banks face a totally different environment than in 2008
A short note on the 'frenemies meeting' in Moscow: Deglobalisation, RMB internationalisation and more geopolitical tensions confirmed
21. March 2023
US existing home sales jumped much-faster-than-expected in February - house prices dropped for the first time since 2012
The big difference between the '2008 bank run' and today: There is political and public support to rescue the banking system - but not for bailing out bank shares
20. March 2023
Germany: Factory gates inflation declines, but the absolute level of producer prices is still 50% higher than in 2019 - and the next inflation leg has already hit the shore
Podcast interview with foreign policy expert Camilla Tenna Nørup Sørensen: War or peace? Is China's President Xi Jinping a peacemaker or Moscow's ally? [language: Danish]
17. March 2023
Xi Jinping as peacemaker in Europe? Yes, if China benefits
Eurozone: Labour costs jumped in the last quarter of 2022. Q1 will be even stronger as the EU faces a secular labour supply problem
China cuts the reserve requirement ratio. The economy needs growth drivers. Xi Jinping could act as a peacemaker in Europe if China benefits. China and USA could benefit
16. March 2023
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey continues to show a weak manufacturing sector - but activity in the service sector is far more important
A short note on today's ECB Meeting: Monetary tightening is needed because today is not 2008
China: House prices 'bounce' back in February - but housing fundamentals are weak
Podcast interview with China expert Jorgen Delman: The West regrets its dependence on China - and Beijing bets on self-sufficiency and increases military spending. Decoupling will be expensive, very expensive - for China and the West [language: Danish]
15. March 2023
China: Economic statistics in January-February do not give rise to much optimism
14. March 2023
USA: Headline inflation moderates, but the biggest sector of the economy, services, sees the highest inflation rate since 1982
USA: NFIB small business survey shows a tightening labour market
By Invitation: China's new Parliament focuses on economic recovery, security, and confrontation with the US
13. March 2023
A short note on the Iran-Saudi deal, yuan internationalisation, SVP, federal debt refinancing, CHIPS, IRA, banking crisis and North Korea
USA: Fiscal balances deteriorate as the Federal Reserve creates headwinds - and will continue to do so. Washington will soon have to raise defence spending markedly
10. March 2023
USA: January labour market report was not a 'statistical error' - and employment growth continued in February. No signs of labour market weakness in the coming months
China: Monetary statistics still show no signs of a sustainable and self-propelled economic recovery. Does Xi Jinping care? Maybe!
'Virtual Company visit' - Albatros: Adventure tourism in China - and what is happening in China. Register Now - 'First come, first served'
9. March 2023
China: Falling inflation shows a weak and vulnerable recovery. The 'solidarity dilemma' facing Europe
8. March 2023
The Eurozone is facing the same tight liquidity situation as the US economy - but the ECB faces bigger problems
USA: The liquidity situation is now contracting at the fastest rate since the 'Volcker era' - and the labour market might still show strength for a little longer
7. March 2023
Germany: Industrial orders continue to bounce back. The difference between the financial crisis and today is the demographic headwind
A disappointing trade report and the Two-Sessions NPC meeting underscore that China faces significant headwinds
6. March 2023
China's Two-Sessions Meeting: 'Moderate' growth forecast of only 5% in 2023 despite the reopening process. Why? Beijing plans to use more money on geopolitical threats - to the disadvantage of private consumption
3. March 2023
USA: The service sector is becoming the economy's main inflation driver. This means more work for the Federal Reserve, although inflation pressure declined in today's survey
Eurozone: Factory gates headline prices decline in January, but core prices increase. The new reality will create price volatility in the future
Japan: Tokyo price subsidies do not disguise increasing inflationary pressures. The share of households 'seeing inflation higher than 5%' skyrockets
2. March 2023
Eurozone: Core inflation gains momentum in February as the ECB faces a larger-than-expected and structural inflation problem
Revisiting the 'monetary normalisation case': European real bond yields are still low based on ten-year inflation expectations
1. March 2023
USA: ISM manufacturing survey shows more contraction and higher inflation pressure
Germany: Headline price pressure fails to decline before the next inflation leg emerges. More tightening for longer will continue the normalisation process in the bond market
China: A sharp rebound in the official PMI indexes creates the foundation for higher commodity prices - and will contribute to a new global inflation leg in H2
28. February 2023
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey shows falling inflation expectations. The share of households 'seeing plentiful of jobs' jumped in February
Eurozone: The ECB will be forced to tighten more for longer as the monetary union faces structural inflation problems
27. February 2023
Podcast interview: Is the 'China adventure' over? [language: Danish]
Eurozone: A tight labour market makes households 'upbeat' - or 'less downbeat'. Stronger wage increases?
24. February 2023
USA: New home sales, tight labour market and sticky inflation will force policy rates higher for longer - and trigger a recession
Germany: Falling energy prices fail to boost spending plans as households see Berlin's foreign policy strategy in the last two decades collapse
Sweden: The economy showed only a weak rebound in sentiment in February. Service sector inflation expectations hit a new all-time high, according to NIER
Japan: Inflation increases to the highest since 1981. Toyota raises wages at the fastest pace in 26 years
22. February 2023
Germany: IFO survey shows an improving 'outlook' - or 'less downbeat' future. But 'China' could turn into Berlin's next nightmare
France: Insee business sentiment survey shows steady growth - but is Europe prepared for what comes after 'Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow'?
21. February 2023
Germany: ZEW survey continues to see improvement in investor sentiment - but the 'China arm' is now at risk
Eurozone consumer confidence recovers at a painfully slow pace as geopolitical tensions increase. The Munich Security Conference was the last straw
Podcast interview with Steen Jakobsen, CIO, Saxo Bank: How big is the risk of sustained high inflation? [language: Danish]
20. February 2023
Sweden: Core inflation continues to increase. Geopolitics will create a new leg in commodity price inflation. The Munich Security Conference underscores how bad the situation is
17. February 2023
France: No signs that inflation will peak anytime soon
Germany: Factory gates inflation will decline more slowly than market expectations. The next inflation leg will come from the 'demographic hurricane'
Podcast: Europe faces a 'demographic hurricane'. What are the implications?
16. February 2023
USA: Higher-than-expected factory gates inflation and a steep decline in manufacturing sentiment are a bad cocktail
China: House prices stabilised in January, but the underlying economic trend shows an 'economic mess' without reforms to unwind imbalances
15. February 2023
USA: US retail sales report indicates 'no landing' - which means 'higher policy rates for much longer'
Britain: Inflation declined in January and will continue to do so in February-March, but a tight labour market will create a new inflation leg
14. February 2023
USA: The consumer price report shows no signs that the Federal Reserve is in control of inflation. Service price inflation soars - and investors are far too complacent
USA: NFIB survey shows weak growth but very strong demand for workers. Job-openings bounce back
Japan: The economy shows moderate growth in Q4, as another 'Stanley Fischer disciple' takes charge of the Bank of Japan. The task remains the same as before - monetary reversal
French and British labour market reports show a very tight European labour market
13. February 2023
China: The recovery is too slow for comfort, as policy decisions in the past put a drag on the economy. More stimulus measures are in the pipeline
9. February 2023
There will be no updates on Friday, February 10
Germany: CPI report disappoints - but headline inflation will decline. Conversely, the ECB faces secular inflationary headwinds
Britain: The RICS survey shows more price pressure in the pipeline in the housing sector
8. February 2023
Eurozone: The demographic hurricane will make monetary policy challenging in 2023 and for years to come without sweeping labour market reforms
7. February 2023
Japanese workers are exposed to the highest cash earnings increase since 1997. Nonetheless, Tokyo opts for the second-most dovish candidate to replace Kuroda
Outlook 2023 - 'step by step'
6. February 2023
Germany: Big-item orders boost industrial orders in December. The case for a tight monetary policy remains strong in the Eurozone
3. February 2023
USA: A strong rebound in the ISM service survey makes the labour market report more credible
USA: The labour market showing no signs of weakness is not what the Federal Reserve aims for. More tightening is coming
Eurozone: Factory gates inflation slows, but the risk of a 'second inflation leg' further down the road is building
A summary in English: Podcast interview with retired Brigadier General Carsten Rasmussen
The foundation for a 'second leg of inflation' is building
2. February 2023
Podcast interview with former Brigadier General Carsten Rasmussen: Will the EU ever be able to defend itself against the military threat from Russia? Is the threat acute when the Danish government does not plan to reach the 2% target before 2030? [Language: Danish]
Spain's labour market underscores the secular problem facing the European Union. Also, the EU Commission is at the beginning of 'dismantling' the Single Market for goods and services
Must-read article about China
1. February 2023
USA: ISM survey shows slower manufacturing activity - but the JOLTS survey shows an even tighter labour market. The financial market is too optimistic when it comes to a monetary U-turn
Eurozone: Headline inflation drops, core inflation stays elevated, and the labour market remains very tight. A recipe for more tightening
USA: What kind of employment situation is the Federal Reserve facing? A very tight labour market - and this will lead to elevated wage inflation in the foreseeable future
31. January 2023
USA: The Employment Cost Index will not change the direction of monetary policy. Wages are still increasing at the fastest since 1984
The Eurozone escaped recession in Q4 due to high winter temperatures - but the ECB now has even more tightening to do
China: PMI survey shows relief rather than optimism. 'Xi going to Moscow' will undermine efforts to improve relations with the EU - unless Putin cannot distinguish between dreams and reality
30. January 2023
Eurozone: A strong rebound in economic sentiment requires a more robust response from the ECB - Sell the European stock market
EU: Monetary policymakers are walking a delicate balancing act but are forced to tighten more for longer. Spain's core inflation jumped in January, Sweden's economy shrank in Q4
27. January 2023
USA: New home sales report keeps the risk of a recession elevated - but the Federal Reserve is more focused on the risk of 'premature easing'
Japan: Inflation is 'transitory for longer'. The Bank of Japan needs an emergency exit in order not to lose face
26. January 2023
USA: The underlying details show a weak Q4 GDP report. The Federal Reserve will stay the course but is walking a delicate balancing act as the liquidity situation is very tight
Sweden: The Riksbank has made the bed; now, the economy must lie on it - NIER survey
South Korea: The economy shrank in Q4 - and the outlook is not improving. The Bank of Korea will pause, but the bias remains tightening
25. January 2023
Germany: IFO expectations index continues to bounce back, as a mild winter saves the economy - and not least the manufacturing sector
24. January 2023
Britain: CBI survey shows falling factory gates inflation and orders - but business optimism and hiring plans bounce back
France: Insee business sentiment survey indicates stable growth in the first quarter of 2023 - but the next inflation leg could be just around the corner
Germany: Falling energy prices boost consumer sentiment but fail to raise household spending. ECB faces a problematic inflation outlook
23. January 2023
Eurozone: Consumer confidence slowly bounces back from an all-time low as households see compensation for energy inflation that never emerged
22. January 2023
Podcast: China's reopening - 'On the ground insights' from a foreigner in Shanghai
20. January 2023
Germany: Factory gates inflation slows, leading to even lower consumer price inflation. Nonetheless, the ECB stays the course of monetary normalisation
