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24. February 2021
USA: A strong leading new home sales report shows clear evidence of an economy exposed to 'excessive' stimulus measures. More house price inflation in the pipeline despite higher bond yields
Taiwan: Skyrocketing export orders show clear signs of a broadening global growth acceleration - or more precisely, 'demand acceleration'. No evidence of softening price pressure
France: Manufacturing sentiment improves, but service sentiment drops. Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since July 2011. More imported inflation in the pipeline
23. February 2021
USA: Consumer confidence improves - and households' inflation expectations increase
A short note on the US bond market sell-off. What comes next?
China: House prices accelerate despite curbs imposed by local authorities, as inventories of unsold homes decline
22. February 2021
Germany: Business sentiment jumps as 'summer is coming' and the vaccination process gains momentum. Inflation pressure in the US adds pressure on the European bond market
19. February 2021
USA: The housing market remains buoyant as policymakers pursue a dangerous strategy of 'let us see what happens'
Britain: The yo-yo pandemic triggers a steep decline in retail sales in January. The fiscal deficit jumps. Business and consumer sentiment increases only slowly in February
Germany: Producer prices jump in January. A much larger increase is in the pipeline in 2021. Is inflation really a problem in Europe?
18. February 2021
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey is a harbinger of steady growth, but inflation expectations skyrocket. The White House is on a path of making a significant policy mistake
Australia: Strong labour market report in January. The recovery is now so robust that Canberra considers rolling back several fiscal support schemes. What about the Aussie dollar?
VIDEO: The case for higher US bond yields - and President Biden's planned public sector projects
17. February 2021
USA: Skyrocketing retail sales and significantly higher inflation at the factory gates require high-level communication skills at the Federal Reserve in 2021
Japan: The 'recovery' continues, according to the latest Reuters Tankan survey. Biden's aggressive policy approach will keep the yen weak in the short run until inflation erodes the real value of the US dollar
16. February 2021
USA: Regional Empire State survey shows skyrocketing inflation pressure at the factory gates
Podcast interview with Flemming Konradsen, Director, School of Global Health, University of Copenhagen, on how to reopen after the lockdown without creating the foundation for the next lockdown
Germany: ZEW economic sentiment index jumps in February close to the highest level since 2004. Inflation expectations are skyrocketing
15. February 2021
Japan: The economy shows strong growth in Q4. Washington could turn into the main growth sponsor for Japanese exporters in 2021
USA: The Biden administration opting for 'whatever it takes' will have profound global consequences further down the road
Podcast interview: 'Boots on the ground'. What is the current situation in China? Steffen Schiottz-Christensen in Chengdu about China's economic recovery, vaccination and the business situation on the mainland
12. February 2021
USA: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined in February. Inflation expectations hit the highest since 2014
Britain: The economy closed the miserable year of 2020 down by 9.9%. The long-term outlook remains weak as London does not have the same freedom of 'fiscal irresponsibility' as in Washington
A short note on President Biden's telephone conversation with Xi Jinping
11. February 2021
USA: The federal deficit skyrocketing in January to more than 17% of GDP will not prevent the Biden-administration from doing more of the same 'fiscal experiment' in 2021
Britain: The latest lockdown puts a drag on house prices, but there appear no significant headwinds in the short run
10. February 2021
USA: Moderate inflation in January, but price pressure is building in many parts of the global supply chain
France: The manufacturing sector stumbled in December. France now pays the price of having made several mistakes since 2008
China: Lunar New Year distortion and food import add downward pressure on consumer prices. Factory prices on the rise. Asset price inflation is Beijing's biggest challenge
9. February 2021
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey shows a steep increase in output prices - a harbinger of higher inflation
Italy: Mario Draghi will not make a difference in Rome because this time he does not have the mandate to do 'whatever it takes'. He has only one attempt
China: 'January aberration' boosts lending, but the liquidity situation is tight, as Beijing does 'whatever it takes' to prevent asset price bubbles
Australia: Business confidence stays close to the highest level since May 2018. No signs yet of aggressive spending in the mining sector will support commodity prices
8. February 2021
Spain: Industrial production contracted in 2020 at the fastest rate since 2009. Madrid needs the ECB more than ever if US bond yields are on the rise
Japan: Economy Watcher Survey continues to show falling sentiment. 'Economic mitigation countries' have no plan-B if new variants force health authorities to launch a new vaccination program - except 'mitigation'
5. February 2021
USA: The January labour market report disappoints as yet another Covid19 wave causes havoc. More fiscal support in the pipeline
USA: What do the short-term and long-term economic indicators say about the economy? The message is strong if  central banks manipulate the yield curve
Germany: Industrial orders dragged down by a significant decline in Euro-zone demand
4. February 2021
Euro-zone: Retail sales fell by only 1.2% in 2020. A big shift in consumption is in the pipeline from Q2
3. February 2021
USA: ISM service survey heralds robust growth, employment and higher inflation in Q2 and beyond
Euro-zone: January inflation exceeds market expectations - but the 'real boost' to inflation will come in Q2
Australia: Zero-tolerance Covid19  strategy, combined with aggressive fiscal stimulus measures, is a recipe of strong growth and inflation 
China: Caixin service PMI index drops to the lowest since April 2020, as clusters of coronavirus outbreaks impact consumer behaviour
Podcast interview with Jens Larsson, St. Petri Capital, about the 'GameStop short-squeeze' and the broader implications [FREE ACCESS]
2. February 2021
Euro-zone: The economy contracts by 6.8% in 2020. A strong rebound in Q2 and Q3 will be followed by weakness in 2022
1. February 2021
USA: ISM manufacturing index drops from an elevated level, but inflation pressure jumps again to the highest level since 2011
Sweden: Inflation pressure at the factory gates jumps to the highest level since 2004, according to the leading January PMI survey
China: New Covid19 outbreaks hit service sentiment, in particular, and manufacturing sentiment. Lunar New Year travellers are  told to stay home
29. January 2021
USA: Household income continues to grow during yet another Covid19 wave. Accumulated household savings hit $1650 billion in 2020
The European Central Bank is giving and giving, but fiscal policy is the only 'efficient' tool left
France: The economy 'performed' better than expected in the last quarter of 2020, but the outlook remains grim after an expected rebound in Q2 and Q3
28. January 2021
USA: Covid19 puts a drag on growth in the last quarter of 2020 - more weakness in Q1, but the economy will recover faster than Europe
EU Commission survey: New lockdowns and Brussels' catastrophic handling of vaccine purchases hit consumer sentiment in January
South Korea: Export sentiment jumps to the highest level since 2011, according to the leading Bank of Korea business sentiment survey
27. January 2021
USA: Private corporate spending remains far below what has been forecast by most forward-looking indicators
France: Consumer confidence declines as Paris considers to impose the third lockdown. Europe's political leaders will soon be tested as people's nerves are on edge
Germany: Consumer sentiment collapses as Berlin considers extending the lockdown
China: Industrial profits soar as Beijing's successful handling of the pandemic creates problems for the central bank
26. January 2021
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey indicates short-term pain and tentative signs of long-term gains, as the share of vaccinated is close to 6%
Brazil: 'My country is broke,' says President Bolsonaro, having bought voters during the pandemic. Bolsonaro's approval rating plunges
Britain: November unemployment rate hit the highest level since July 2016. Retailer sentiment collapses in January to a level not seen since April 2020
EU: The 'failed' vaccination process could turn into dangerous political headwinds fuelling EU-sceptics unless Brussels pulls itself together
South Korea: Strong Q4 growth report. 'Thank you for the support, USA and EU'
25. January 2021
Germany: IFO survey disappoints due to a broad-based decline in future expectations. Manufacturing current conditions index remains upbeat
22. January 2021
USA: The housing market continued to stay upbeat in December despite soaring prices, but the bond market will create headwinds in from Q2
The video version of The Outlook 2021 is now available
Britain: Several tsunamis have hit the shore. Consumer and business sentiment drops, and the budget deficit soars
21. January 2021
USA: A buoyant regional Philadelphia Fed survey is only the tip of the iceberg in an over-stimulated economy
France: Insee survey shows broad-based improvement in sentiment, but the 'recovery' will be bumpy
Japan: The export sector improves but is lagging Taiwan and South Korea
20. January 2021
China-EU investment deal
Taiwan: Export orders skyrocket at the fastest rate since April 2010 by courtesy of the 'economic mitigation countries'. More to come, according to the Economy Ministry
Germany: Inflation at the factory gates surprises to the upside as higher prices on intermediate goods and raw materials hit the shore
19. January 2021
Germany: ZEW survey looks through 'temporary' Covid19 problems. Inflation expectations skyrocketed in January
Podcast interview with Joergen Bager, Senior Director of Market Operations at LEGO Group in China, about B2C and the Chinese consumer
18. January 2021
Japan Reuters Tankan survey: Service sentiment takes a beating while manufacturing confidence jumps in January
China: The recovery continued in Q4, but headwinds from a new Covid19 wave could hit growth in Q1, as households react immediately to the newsflow
Germany: The CDU opting for status quo does not eliminate the risk of political rivalry when Angela Merkel steps down
15. January 2021
USA: Manufacturing output continues bouncing back. Capital spending plans are on the rise. Empire State survey is a harbinger of higher inflation
USA: Retail sales decline in December as the pandemic continues to put a lid on growth
China: House price inflation moderates in December as tightening measures put a drag on house prices
14. January 2021
China: The 'economic mitigation countries' supported Chinese exporters in December. More to come in Q2 assuming there are no surprises from new Covid19 variants
Is inflation on the rise? Yes, by courtesy of policymakers who, once again, kicked the can down the road
13. January 2021
Italy: The manufacturing rebound slows at the same time as politics in Rome is back to 'normal' - political turmoil
The CDU-leader contest could turn into the most decisive moment in European politics in 2021 if Friedrich Merz is elected the next party leader
12. January 2021
USA: Small business sentiment falls sharply, as a new Covid19 wave dents the economic outlook, according to the NFIB
Japan: Service sentiment plunges as a more aggressive third wave of Covid19 emerges. The pandemic leaves Japan with the same problem but in a worse situation to mitigate headwinds
11. January 2021
Spain: The economy is losing steam. The vaccination process will be too slow to save the tourist season in 2021
China: Inflation normalises. It may be difficult for Beijing to keep their arms down. Insurrection in Washington and 'economic mitigation' in favour of Chinese exports. Can it get much better?
8. January 2021
USA: The Covid19 pandemic out of control hits the service sector hard in today's employment report
7. January 2021
USA: Soaring service sentiment despite no end to the pandemic. A significant bond market sell-off is in the pipeline
EU business and consumer survey: The rebound is on track but much weaker than in the United States
VIDEO: China's digital RMB - Beijing's view
Germany: Industrial orders jump in November. Growth will accelerate in Q2 unless South African and Romanian virus variants succeed in derailing the vaccination program
6. January 2021
USA: Weak ADP Employment Report is only one more argument for aggressive fiscal policy, according to the Democrats
The Outlook 2021 slides presentation
USA: The Georgia election could turn into the beginning of a larger bond market sell-off - and boosts the probability of more regulation of the tech sector
5. January 2021
USA: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back. Inflation pressure skyrockets in December by courtesy of the 'economic mitigation strategy'
Germany: Strong retail sales in November - more to come in Q2. Until then, Germany and the rest of Europe face the longest winter in living memory
4. January 2021
China: PMI survey continues to show robust growth. 'Jack Ma' is just yet another tycoon disappearing on the mainland