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23. January 2020
Turkey: Consumer confidence stays close to a record low despite aggressive monetary and fiscal easing. The lira is at risk
USA: Existing home sales report shows a buoyant housing market boosting households' wealth effect significantly by courtesy of the Federal Reserve
Japan: The December trade report shows no signs of an upcoming rebound. Nearly ten million Chinese tourists are suddenly a liability
A short note on the risk of a pandemic caused by a new strain of coronavirus in China - The difference from the Sars-outbreak in 2003
21. January 2020
2020 Outlook roadshow: There will be no or only delayed updates on January 22
Germany: Investor sentiment jumps, according to the January ZEW survey
Britain: The best forward-looking employment indicators show a 'less upbeat' rather than a 'downbeat' labour market
A short note on the new strain of coronavirus in China
20. January 2020
Taiwanese export orders report shows tentative signs of a meagre rebound in global and Chinese manufacturing activity
17. January 2020
USA: Housing starts skyrocket to the highest level since 2006 as tailwinds prevail
Britain: Retail sales disappointing big time in December raises the likelihood of negative growth in Q4. Fiscal stimulus measures are in the pipeline
China 'decides' to report the slowest growth rate since 1989. The underlying details should give rise for concern in Washington and Brussels
16. January 2020
USA: Strong third-quarter retail sales statistics as households barely see headwinds
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows tentative signs of bouncing back. This still needs to be reflected in the national ISM survey
Turkey: Ankara cuts policy rates aggressively at the same time as the fiscal deficit hits a new all-time high
China: House prices are even weaker than reflected in official statistics. The dark clouds remain on the horizon despite a 'fantastic' trade deal
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey fails to show a rebound in downbeat manufacturing sentiment despite US-China trade deal and fiscal stimulus measures
15. January 2020
USA: Manufacturing Empire State survey shows no evidence of a 'fantastic phase-one trade deal'
Euro-zone: A record high trade surplus with the United States provides more ammo to the next leg in the 'global trade war'
China: Trade report shows signs of stronger infrastructure spending - weak 'phase one' trade deal will only 'buy time'
13. January 2020
Britain: The economy shows signs of broad-based contraction in the last quarter of 2019. The outlook is deteriorating
France: A short note on the government's decision not to raise the retirement age
10. January 2020
USA: Employment report is neither too cold nor too hot, at least from the perspective of the Federal Reserve
Spain: Manufacturing output bounced back in November, but consumer confidence falls sharply in December. The left-wing coalition plans a reversal of the labour market reform
Iran scoring an own goal by shooting down a Ukrainian passenger plane weakens the case for Tehran
Global: The rebound in leading manufacturing indicators has so far been a huge disappointment. Policymakers are close to pressing the 'panic button' as 'zero growth' is not an option
7. January 2020
USA: ISM service headline index improves in December, but the underlying details remain weak
Euro-zone: Robust consumer spending bodes well for growth in the last quarter of 2019. Nonetheless, the outlook is less upbeat
A short note on John Bolton's offer to testify: The Democrats have nothing to lose
Sweden: PMI service survey shows lacklustre growth outlook - but the forecast for the Swedish currency remains positive
6. January 2020
Iran crisis: Trump won a pyrrhic victory, but the United States risks becoming the big loser while Beijing wisely stays out of the conflict
3. January 2020
USA: Disappointingly weak manufacturing ISM survey as 'fantastic' trade deal fails to boost sentiment. Production index plunges
The killing of Iran Revolutionary Guard commander could turn into a nightmare for President Trump who is not prepared for the next step in the conflict
Global macroeconomic update presentation focusing on the main drivers in 2020
2. January 2020
Sweden: Weak manufacturing PMI survey in December will not change the fact that low-public-sector-debt currencies will outperform in the first half of 2020
China: Weak PMI surveys underscore why Beijing is now on a path of more aggressive monetary easing. Financial repression gains the upper hand
20. December 2019
There will be no updates from December 23 until January 1, both days included, due to the Christmas holiday.
Germany: GfK survey shows a steep decline in households' income expectations as negative interest rates, perversely, boost the savings rate to the highest level since 2008
19. December 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey shows weak short-term demand but strong long-term demand
France: The broader business sentiment index remains buoyant, as President Macron still has the upper hand
18. December 2019
A short update on the euro against the US dollar. What escalating trade tensions in 2020 mean for the euro?
Germany: IFO index bounces back in December propelled by sentiment in the service sector. Manufacturing sector barely improves. Robert Lighthizer and China threaten Germany and the EU
17. December 2019
USA: Manufacturing output rose in November. What if the best short-term leading indicators were to bounce back sharply in January?
Britain: A robust labour market is on its last legs, but a recession is no longer part of the storyboard
USA: Homebuilder sentiment index jumps to the highest level since June 1999 as housing 'demand' benefits from an unusually accommodative monetary environment
16. December 2019
USA: Manufacturing Empire State index barely bounces back from an already low level, but the capital expenditure index jumps
China: House prices continue to increase at a slower pace as Beijing enters a path of monetary easing
China: Manufacturing output bounces back, but underlying details remain weak. Beijing 'bullying' raises fundamental questions overseas about the future relationship with China
13. December 2019
USA: November retail sales report disappoints, but consumer spending will remain robust in the first half of 2020
Anecdotal evidence from China: The economy remains weak and the leadership appears divided. Beijing needs, therefore, a trade deal more than ever before
A short note to the 'Torben Andersen podcast interview' - Why central banks are worried about the consequences of digital currencies
The primary lesson from Britain's national election: 'Stay away from the far-left' and show unity
12. December 2019
USA: Benign inflation environment in November. A tight labour market poses a much larger risk to price stability than import tariffs
Japan: Machinery orders plunge in October. Tokyo plans to launch fiscal stimulus measures equivalent to 2% of GDP
Podcast interview with Torben M Andersen, former chairman of the Danish Economic Council and the Welfare Commission, about whether QE has failed and, if so, 'what went wrong?'
11. December 2019
There will be no updates on December 11
10. December 2019
USA: Small business survey shows the highest share of respondents planning to raise wages since 1989
Germany: ZEW survey shows improving investor sentiment as both monetary and fiscal policy is expected to be accommodative in 2020; but the economy remains fragile
France: President Macron faces a decisive battle reminiscent of Prime Minister Thatcher's struggle with the miners in the 1980s
China: Soaring pork prices propel consumer price inflation to the highest level seen since 2011
9. December 2019
A short note on the US employment report: The labour force of 'needed' workers appears to have reached the upper limit
China: Trade details show Beijing is slowly turning towards 'classic' stimulus measures, as US-China relations are heading for long-term deterioration
6. December 2019
USA: Consumer confidence jumps as households see only tailwinds - even from the Federal Reserve
USA: Employment report shows a massive increase in new jobs although this was not enough to lure many more workers into the labour force
Germany: Manufacturing output drops at the fastest annual rate since November 2009
Japan: PM Abe's cabinet approves a huge fiscal stimulus package as real household spending takes a beating
5. December 2019
Euro-zone: Households are the main growth contributor, but households in Southern Europe could turn into a major drag on growth in 2020
Germany: Industrial orders decline by more than expected in October; 'big items' orders prevent an even sharper decline
4. December 2019
USA: ISM service index disappoints, but the underlying details are slightly less downbeat
USA: ADP Employment shows weak job creation in November. More weakness to come in Q1
Sweden: Service sentiment moves deeper into the contraction zone. The broader economy could contract in Q1
3. December 2019
Take profit in the 'long Swedish currency strategy'
Spain could be headed towards a significant increase in unemployment in 2020
2. December 2019
USA: Manufacturing ISM survey is a significant disappointment. No signs of a rebound in corporate spending
Sweden: PMI survey shows no signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector
Germany: SPD's new leadership will move the party further to the left and boost the probability of fiscal stimulus measures
China: PMI survey shows a rebound in business sentiment, but details and anecdotal evidence herald more weakness to come
29. November 2019
India: Economic growth drops to the slowest rate since Q1 2013
Sweden: Strong net-export in Q3 supports the economy. The properties of the currency are 'value' as well as 'cyclical'
Japan: Manufacturing output falls at the fastest annual rate since 2013 beyond what could be explained by a powerful typhoon
South Korea: Industrial production falls sharply in October. Business sentiment indicators 'appear' to have reached rock bottom, but a bumpy road ahead
28. November 2019
EU survey: Euro-zone sentiment showing broad-based improvement reduces the risk of recession in 2020, but the economy is still headed towards 'shallow growth'
Japan: Increasing household consumption before VAT hike leads to a sharp fall in retail sales in October. IMF urges Tokyo to raise VAT rate to 15%
27. November 2019
USA: Durable goods orders manage to increase in October but continue to contract on an annual basis
China: Industrial profit falls sharply in October. Economic growth is headed lower in 2020 without new stimulus measures
France: Consumer confidence jumps in November. Households expect unemployment to fall in the future
USA: Richmond Fed survey also shows contraction in corporate spending
26. November 2019
USA: Robust new home sales statistics show upbeat 'long-term' consumer sentiment
Sweden: Benign inflation at the factory gates but higher than in the Euro-zone. Why the next global downturn 'could' be different for the Swedish currency
Germany: Consumer sentiment improves as households see stronger short-term tailwinds, but financial repression erodes their future spending power
USA: Dallas Fed survey shows stabilisation in the manufacturing sector but also a steep decline in the capital expenditure plans index
25. November 2019
A short note on comments from Liu He evading the attention of the financial market
Germany: IFO survey shows no 'decisive' evidence of an upcoming rebound. Financial repression could hit households hard in 2020
By Invitation: Stealth leadership - Silence on key challenges at China's recent Central Committee meeting
22. November 2019
Germany: Q3 GDP details show a 'slightly stronger' underlying economy than reflected by the preliminary report
21. November 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed headline index concludes rock bottom in manufacturing sentiment, but details show a mixed picture
Turkey: Consumer confidence index bounces back but remains close to the lowest level since 2009
France: No further signs of weaker business sentiment. The positive impact of President Macron's reforms hits the shores, but the budget deficit is on the rise
20. November 2019
++There will only be delayed updates on Thursday, November 21++
Global trade: The latest statistics show no signs of an upcoming rebound