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23. March 2018
China Trip - No updates from April 6 to April 13
USA - Buoyant durable goods orders report - The outlook is strong, 'other things being equal!' - But 'other things are no longer the same'
A short note on the replacement of Trump's national security adviser - Foreign policy is now in the control of two Iran-hawks and a maverick
By Invitation - Xi Jinping - Emperor in real new clothes
22. March 2018
US leading indicators are harbingers of strong growth in Q2, but the current policy mix could , further down the road, prove to be a serious policy-mistake
USA-China trade face-off - Mr Trump may have overreached himself after drawing 'Taiwan' into the conflict
Germany - Weak IFO survey underscores vulnerability to a change in the 'global rules of economic engagement'
France - Stable business sentiment in March, as President Macron faces a decisive battle - The reward of winning could make leeway for broader economic reforms
21. March 2018
USA - Existing home sales bounce back - A historically low level of unsold homes boosts prices
Britain - Wage increases gain momentum adding more pressure on the BoE to raise policy rates
20. March 2018
Germany - The threat of global trade friction dents investor sentiment - and for good reasons
Britain - February inflation comes in lower than market expectations although this does not change BoE's path of monetary normalisation
China - A short note on the National People's Congress
Japan - Reuters Tankan survey continues to herald strong growth in the near future - but Trump's 'dream team' poses threat to Japanese exporters
19. March 2018
Japan trade report - Significant external headwinds on the horizon - PM Abe could be forced to step down
China - Tier-1 cities put a drag on February house prices but tier-3 prices increase
16. March 2018
USA - The UoM consumer survey's current conditions index skyrockets to an all-time high
US industrial output jumps at the fastest annual rate since March 2011 boosting the case for stronger corporate spending
US housing starts and permits disappoint in February, as homebuilder association reports about 'bottlenecks'
US TIC data - Foreign investors are still not voting with their feet
15. March 2018
USA - Surprisingly upbeat Philadelphia Fed survey - Six-month-outlook improves but the risk of a global trade war will increase in 2018
A more hostile global environment puts a lid on Chinese outbound investments - Foreign investments in China are still on the rise
14. March 2018
Weak US retail sales report does not change the forecast of stronger consumer spending in 2018
USA - PPI inflation is trending higher but remains benign - 'Trump protectionism' gains popular support
Spain - It is hard to see significant headwinds even though support for PM Rajoy has plunged in opinion polls
The Chinese economy was in fine fettle going into 2018 - but the 'trade war' has only just started
13. March 2018
The replacement of Tillerson turns the Trump administration into a 'real' Trump government - Assertive, hawkish and less compromising
USA - Benign consumer price inflation and absent wage increases keep 'Goldilocks-scenario' alive for a little longer
US NFIB business survey - 'The small business sector is on fire!' - Corporate spending index hits the highest level since 2004
12. March 2018
USA - A dramatic change in the geopolitical balance could boost support to import tariffs on both sides of the aisle in the name of 'national interests'
9. March 2018
US employment report - Very strong job hiring as job-seekers enter the labour force - weak wage gains
Industrial output drops in France and Germany - but French outlook remains robust, while German manufacturers have hit full capacity utilisation
China - A rebound in inflation and monetary statistics do not change the short-term outlook of 'steady growth' - Why is Trump reluctant to hit Beijing directly?
8. March 2018
A short note on the ECB's 'withdrawal of words' rather than liquidity
Germany - Industrial orders take a beating in January - Business sentiment shows the first tentative signs of 'fatigue'
China - Trade report shows robust growth across the board - trade surplus with the USA hitting a new all-time high will boost trade tensions
7. March 2018
USA - The January trade deficit continues to inflate, as the current policy mix is a recipe for precisely such an outcome
ADP Employment Report shows buoyant labour market - but increasing signs of labour shortage
China's foreign exchange reserves decline in February - Elevated Xi Jinping will 'force' Beijing to reinforce anticorruption campaign
The 'President of Contradictions' will now try to save his beloved stock market, but tariff-policy has created an irreversible vicious circle
6. March 2018
Brazil - Short-term tailwind could soon turn into severe headwind
5. March 2018
Strong US service ISM index boosts the combined index to a new all-time high
The case for robust Euro-zone growth remains valid - deteriorating political situation may open a new window of opportunity to Draghi
China - Caixin service PMI survey continues to herald steady growth - anecdotal evidence remains strong as well
A short note on Italy, Groko and Trump - The EU could soon turn into an unruly union
2. March 2018
The Bank of Japan joins the central banks, who are looking for the exit - This will be a delicate balancing act!
Japan - Unemployment rate drops sharply to the lowest level since 1993 - US import tariffs will 'solve' labour shortage problem in 2019
1. March 2018
Buoyant US ISM survey combined with soaring factory gates prices and employment growth at an all-time high is a recipe for a higher USD and policy rates
USA - Healthy trend in personal income in January, but wage increases will gain momentum in the coming months
Swiss PMI and KOF surveys are harbingers of annual growth in the range of 3% to 4% - Inflation indicator soars
Britain - House prices decline in February dragged down by real wage erosion - but wages are poised to increase at a faster rate in 2018
28. February 2018
USA - No significant changes in the first Q4 GDP revision - Real domestic demand growth is still the strongest since 2003
Sweden - Robust growth will not change the monetary stance of a 'permanently dovish' Riksbank
Germany - Labour market continues to tighten, as Groko coalition plans to turn towards fiscal expansion
Japan - Industrial output plunges in January, but METI forecasts a sharp rebound in February - no-nonsense Fed Chairman poses threat to Japanese stock market
China - The official PMI index takes a beating, as new hawkish Fed Chairman could soon prove to be the only determinant for China's monetary policy
27. February 2018
US consumer confidence index soars to the highest level since November 2000 leaving no option than four rate hikes in 2018
USA - Case-Shiller report shows solid house price increases - more in the pipeline, as higher wages will compensate partially for higher mortgage yields
US durable goods orders drop in January, but leading indicators still show corporate spending could add two percentage points to GDP growth in 2018
EU Commission survey - Headline index declines marginally but inflation remains at an elevated level despite euro strength
Euro-zone, monetary aggregates increase at a 'steady' rather than 'brisk' rate, but non-financial loans increase at the fastest rate since 2009
France - Consumer confidence drops sharply, as President Macron goes to war with SNCF
26. February 2018
USA - New home sales plunge in January as higher mortgage yields bite
China - Home price inflation slows in January - Xi Jinping will soon be the 'Emperor'
23. February 2018
Germany - The export sector was the only growth contributor in Q4 despite euro strength and an economy running close to full capacity utilisation
Japan - Inflation is on the rise, but who will benefit from the Bank of Japan's 'success'?
22. February 2018
Germany - IFO survey takes a beating, but sentiment remains close to an all-time high
France - 'Shortage of skilled labour' puts a drag on output very early in the business cycle
21. February 2018
USA - Few homes available for sale are a drag on activity but boost prices
The case for a stronger dollar when the 'twin deficit' is poised to increase significantly
Britain - Labour market report shows increasing wage pressure as job vacacancies are on the rise
20. February 2018
Germany - ZEW survey heralds strong growth in H1, which will force ECB to tighten, but at a slower pace than in the United States
Britain - CBI survey still heralds robust growth and significant inflation pressure in spite of a drop in the price component
Germany - Inflation at the factory gates exceeds market expectations - AfD hits new high and would be the second-largest party if elections were held today
19. February 2018
Japan - Reuters Tank survey continues to forecast strong growth despite yen strength
16. February 2018
USA - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment jumps sharply in February, as households predominantly see tailwinds
US housing starts and permits jump in January, as the current monetary situation just yet not create any significant headwinds
British households continue to pay the high costs of the BoE's failed monetary policy - weak retail sales report
US TIC data underscores that Japan is deliberately abandoning the 'beggar-thy-neighbour' strategy - now 'confirmed' by Taro Aso
15. February 2018
Robust US Philadelphia Fed survey - Soaring inflation expectations and the capex index jumps to a new all-time high
US PPI inflation report comes in at the higher part of the range because of higher core-inflation - but not a huge surprise!
France - The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate drops to the lowest level since early 2009 adding more pressure on the ECB
Japan - Machinery orders plunge in December - H1 Outlook remains strong, but undervalued yen is slowly turning into a liability
14. February 2018
US inflation report - Higher inflation at this stage is bad news, as there are significantly more bad news in the pipeline
Euro-zone - Manufacturing output accelerates growing at the fastest rate since Q3-2011 - More in the pipeline
The German economy expands at the fastest annual rate since Q3-2011 - CDU-CSU and SPD fall sharply in opinion polls
Japan - Disappointing Q4 GDP report - The economy faces multiple headwinds in H2 - The stock market correction
13. February 2018
Australia - Business sentiment improves markedly - Mining spending plans jump to the highest level since 2009
Buoyant US small business survey heralds stronger wage increases - The good-time-to-expand index skyrocketed to a new all-time high
Britain - Inflation rate stays at an elevated level - price indicators are harbingers of more inflation pressure in H1
The White House reveals who will pay for the tax reform - Huge spending cuts will hit low-income households
12. February 2018
The Storyboard - What might be in the pipeline for the stock market?
China - Bank lending skyrockets in January
Germany - GroKo boosts the risk of political implosion; left-leaning SPD-leader-to-be aims for fiscal expansion to keep the AfD at bay
9. February 2018
Britain - Weak industrial output and trade report will not prevent a 'cornered' BoE from raising policy rates several times in 2018
France - Strong manufacturing output report - Outlook is very strong - 'New' German GroKo coalition will loosen fiscal policy
China - Benign inflation, but robust domestic demand will keep monetary policy tight - Fed's Dudley says 'stock drop to date is small potatoes'
8. February 2018
The December Trade report shows that Germany is fuelling European growth, which is a double-edged sword for the ECB
Spain - Industrial output accelerates, as inflation expectations at the factory gates hit the highest level since 2008
Japan - A sharp decline in the Economy Watcher Survey headline index gives rise to 'some concern'