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20. January 2017
A short note on the possibility of fiscal disappointment in Washington
China - GDP growth slows; but transformation from overseas to domestic demand continues - report is also reflection of increasing inflation
Japan - Improving sentiment in Reuters Tankan survey is boosted by Trump victory
19. January 2017
US Philadelphia Fed survey gains further momentum; price index is rocketing
Euro-zone current account surplus hits new record high; soaring EU trade surplus with USA will draw attention of Trump administration
TIC data show steep decline in Chinese holding of US government bonds just as the Federal Reserve turns more hawkish
18. January 2017
Utilities boost US industrial production; outlook remains very strong but the financial market is having second thoughts about stimulus plan
Tight British labour market boosts wages; Theresa May speech underscores deteriorating political climate in Europe
China - Tightening measures put a lid on home prices
17. January 2017
Stable US Empire State index; but capex index soars
German ZEW sentiment gains based on ultra-loose monetary policy and misconception about the impact of Donald Trump
Britain - Higher inflation will force the BoE to tighten as London prepares for Hard Brexit
16. January 2017
Paris and Berlin force Theresa May to opt for Hard-Brexit - but Trump in Washington could make this option less painful
13. January 2017
US UoM consumer sentiment stabilises at an elevated level; diplomatic skills are now needed to pass fiscal stimulus measures
US retail sales report shows moderate growth in Q4; but Trump-driven boost to business and consumer sentiment will help growth in H1
Germany - Broad-based increase in wholesale prices could spillover into consumer prices
China - Exporters see headwind from overvalued currency; global protectionism to become the strongest headwind in 2017
Realpolitik turns against Erdogan - Turkey could be headed towards hyper-inflation
12. January 2017
Euro-zone industrial output jumps in November; even Italy sees stronger manufacturing expansion
China - Credit expansion shows moderate growth as Beijing awaits the first steps of the new Trump administration
11. January 2017
Brazil - Inflation falling back into the target range will accelerate policy rate cuts
Britain - Trade deficit hits new record high; the negative impact of Brexit will become more visible in 2017
Trump provides relief to Japan although long-term outlook has not improved; risk to the Japanese stock market is on the rise
10. January 2017
France - November manufacturing output jumps
US small business sentiment index skyrockets to the highest level since 2004; sales and spending expectations are on the rise
China - Factory gates inflation jumps; inflation expectations are on the rise
9. January 2017
US President-elect turns Mexican peso into one of the cheapest currencies in the world - Private Trump agenda becomes more visible
Germany - Weak industrial production report in November does not change strongest outlook since May 2011
Italy - Unemployment rate increases in spite of demographics as Beppo Grillo changes view on the euro and the EU
China - FX reserves fall as Beijing one-time devaluation is still being discussed
6. January 2017
US labour market report shows strongest wage inflation since 2009
Euro-zone Economic Sentiment Index jumps to the highest level since March 2011
Germany - Growth outlook remains strong in spite of weak industrial report - AfD gains in opinion polls
The New World Order
5. January 2017
US ISM service index stays at an elevated level in December; but the employment index fell sharply
Weaker-than-expected US ADP employment report - but employment indicators are harbinger of labour shortage
The main focus of Beijing is a stable CFETS index - but more influential advisers join call for allowing the yuan to fall
4. January 2017
Euro-zone inflation is on the rise; more inflation is in the pipeline
Spain - The reformers are exposed to the strongest economic recovery
France - Household inflation expectations soar; Fillon victory risks endangering Paris-Berlin axis
3. January 2017
Trumpnomics fuels ISM survey; inflation at the factory gates accelerates and orders index jumps; Federal Reserve will close the gap at a faster pace
Germany - Labour market continues to benefit as Berlin hides behind weak monetary union; inflation on the rise
China Caixin PMI survey shows upbeat private manufacturers
2. January 2017
Sweden - PMI index jumps to the highest level since February 2011
China - PMI surveys show steady growth but tightening measures are slowly feeding into the economy - Yuan currency basket has been changed
21. December 2016
No updates on the website from December 22 to December 31
US existing home sales show steady growth as inventory of unsold homes declines close to the lowest level on record
The Federal Reserve will close the gap behind the curve faster as fiscal stimulus is not obvious at this stage of the business cycle
Italy wage inflation declines but relative competitive position is improving too slowly; households will see significant headwind in 2017
20. December 2016
Euro-zone current account surplus hits new record high only few weeks before Trump becomes President of the United States
19. December 2016
Japan - Trade balance improves; Trumponomics creates foundation for more yen weakness in the short run
IFO survey heralds broad-based growth in H1-2017 as German sentiment benefits from weak euro, simmering crisis and planned US infrastructure spending
China - Home price inflation slows significantly in tier-1 cities
16. December 2016
US housing starts remain buoyant in spite of steep decline in November - NAHB - but headwind from bond market is gaining momentum
UK CBI industrial trends survey shows yet another steep increase in inflation expectations
France - Sentiment in the manufacturing sector and service sector is on the rise; but Euro-zone faces increasingly same bond environment as in 1994
US Philadelphia Fed capital expenditure index jumps to the highest level since 2000; Federal Reserve will speed up monetary tightening
14. December 2016
US - Weak retail sales and higher producer price inflation; real bond yields are on the rise
Britain - Wage and price inflation on the rise
China - Increase in shadow bank lending will continue to turn Beijing more hawkish - but more yuan weakness remains part of policy strategy
BoJ Tankan survey - Weaker yen boosts manufacturing sentiment but not corporate spending; labour shortage problem on the rise
13. December 2016
NFIB - US small business sentiment jumps in November; employment indicator hits new all-time high
China - Moderate industrial output and robust retail sales data will slowly turn PBoC more hawkish
12. December 2016
Mexico - Industrial output loses momentum as Donald Trump considers new headwind for the country
There will only be delayed updates on December 13 and 15
Japan - Machinery orders rose more strongly than expected; weak yen policy is becoming chess piece in Trump bargaining with Beijing
China - Home price inflation slows - Trump is finally confronting Beijing
9. December 2016
University of Michigan consumer sentiment index jumps in December close to the highest level since 2000
Brazil - Inflation rate is slowly coming back into the target range of the central bank
France is headed towards significant headwind in 2017 - Fillon poses opportunity as well as risk to stability in the EU
China - Inflation at the factory gates increases to highest level since 2011
8. December 2016
The end of the EMU seems more likely than reflected by the financial market; increasing risk of EMU break-up could turn asset prices into national currencies
China - Stronger domestic demand boosts import as Beijing prepares for an unavoidable trade conflict with Washington
5. December 2016
2017 Outlook - No Updates on December 6-7
US ISM service index jumps as President-elect Trump will slowly replace market liberalism with Mercantilism - fasten your seat belts!
Spain will see more headwind in 2017 but is in a much better position to survive Trump and Euro-zone crisis
Japan - Consumer confidence declines as yen weakens; household inflation expectations appear yet again to be on the rise
The outcome of Italian referendum is just one of several bricks disappearing from the EU wall
2. December 2016
Mixed US labour market report is still in line with December rate hike
President Erdogan recklessness hits back with a vengeance reinforced by Trump victory
The Swiss economy performs well in spite of significant headwind although this could become too much for comfort in 2017
1. December 2016
USA - ISM manufacturing sentiment index improves; Trumponomics risks creating more headwind later in 2017
Euro-zone sentiment boosted by factors that may disappear in 2017
China PMI survey - Soaring inflation expectations are a warning of too much complacency in the developed countries
30. November 2016
The Brazilian economy moves deeper into recession as President Temer also risks impeachment process
Germany is turning into a boom-bust economy; forward-looking indicators herald significantly tighter labour market
South Korea - Industrial output contracts as outlook for domestic and overseas demand deteriorates
29. November 2016
US consumer confidence boosted by Trumponomics (updated)
US GDP report revision - Stronger private consumption boosts growth in Q3
EU survey - Sentiment stays at elevated level - inflation expectations are on the rise
Japanese households struggle in spite of tight labour market; Trump victory to be short-lived as 2017 could become the year of global repatriation
28. November 2016
Euro-zone monetary aggregates expand at a slower pace; higher global bond yields are slowly undermining ECB policy
25. November 2016
South Korean consumer sentiment plunges to lowest level since 2008 as country sees multiple headwinds
Time is running out for Italy - Crisis in Rome could have impact on China-USA relationship
24. November 2016
US trade balance is back in the spotlight as Trump risks underestimating Beijing
Strong German IFO survey - service sentiment jumps as economy moves deeper into boom territory
French business surveys show steady growth supported by low inflation and benign monetary environment - Fillon win could boost CAC40
23. November 2016
US new-home-sales report disappoints but shows no signs yet of upcoming slow-down
US durable goods orders boosted by transportation; Trump infrastructure spending plan will create more harm than good because of time-lag
China MNI index increases; cargo by rail and ship shows strong bounce