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20. October 2017
China trip - No updates from November 6 to 10
USA: A shortage of supply puts a lid on existing home sales, but the housing market is still exposed to strong tailwind
China: Tight credit conditions and administrative measures hit home sales in September
Germany: Higher energy prices lift producer prices - the political situation is a big mess
19. October 2017
US Philadelphia Fed survey: Headline index jumps and employment skyrockets to an all-time high - a highly upbeat survey
Britain: Retail sales fell in September, as the real impact of Carney's monetary policy emerges; the slowest rate of increase since 2013
China: Robust Q3 growth makes room for more comprehensive deleveraging in 2018 - 'China First' will gain momentum
18. October 2017
USA: Hurricanes-distorted housing data are weaker than market expectations, but NABH survey shows upbeat outlook
Britain: Strong employment report will keep the Bank of England on track to raise policy rates
President Xi Jinping's speech: Make China great through innovation, bigger and more efficient state-owned companies - and more anti-corruption campaigns
17. October 2017
USA: Industrial production report underscores yet again that stronger soft data are not yet being transformed into robust hard data
China: The 19th Communist Party Congress and what to focus on
Britain: Inflation hits the highest level since 2012; a reluctant BoE forced to raise policy rates at the same time as the economy shows signs of slowing
Japan: Manufacturing Reuters Tankan index jumps to the highest level since June 2007; landslide election victory would enable change of the Constitution
16. October 2017
USA: Regional Empire State index bounces back to the highest level since 2009
A short note on Iraq's 'invasion' of oil-rich areas in the Kurdish part of the country
China: Falling food prices put a lid on consumer price inflation, but PPI inflation continues higher
13. October 2017
USA: UoM consumer sentiment index skyrockets to the highest level since November 2000
USA: Strong retail sales report inflated by devastating hurricanes
China: September trade report shows no signs of growth slow-down
Food for thought: 'Populism' in Europe continues gaining momentum despite stronger growth - Next stop: Austria
12. October 2017
US PPI report: Inflation is slowly coming back - US dollar and China are inflationary factors and the labour market is tight
Euro-zone: Industrial output jumps in August - the outlook is very strong
11. October 2017
Brazil: The economy remains on a path of recovery despite weak retail sales report - Brazilian currency is expensive
Skyrocketing Taiwanese exports and imports still point towards solid mainland growth
Japan: Better-than-expected machinery orders report does not disguise that corporate investment boom is still absent
10. October 2017
US small business sentiment drops in September - Hurricanes appear not to be the only negative impact
Germany: Strong trade report shows a booming economy - Outlook remains very strong
Japan: Economy Watcher outlook index jumps to the highest level since April 2014
9. October 2017
China: Capital inflow continues despite yuan weakness; Caixin PMI service index declines to lowest level since 2015
Germany: Industrial output shows steepest annual increase since 2011; IFO production index heralds output acceleration
6. October 2017
USA: Hurricanes impact NFP - but, more importantly, wage increases accelerate leaving only one option left for the Federal Reserve
Japan - Strongest increase in overtime pay since June 2014 does not change negative trend in real wages
Germany - Industrial orders boosted by strong overseas demand - Long-term risks are building after one decade with no major reforms
5. October 2017
Catalonia: The reaction of Madrid, Berlin, Paris and Brussels has been catastrophic; EU's political leaders have learned nothing in the last few years
4. October 2017
US service ISM index soars to the highest level since August 2005; price index is skyrocketing
USA: Hurricanes take their toll in the labour market, according to the ADP September report
Euro-zone retail sales disappoint in August despite upbeat retailers and consumers
Sweden: Service PMI index skyrockets to the highest level since January 2011
3. October 2017
Turkey: Inflation remains at an elevated level; President Erdogan is slowly turning the country into a non-market-oriented economy
Euro-zone producer price report surprises on the upside - Inflation pressure building and stronger growth will force the ECB to act
Japan: Consumer confidence hits the highest level since September 2013
2. October 2017
USA - Strong manufacturing ISM index increasing to highest level since May 2004 boosts probability of faster monetary tightening - ISM prices-paid index skyrockets
Sweden - Manufacturing PMI index bounces back sharply in September - The Riksbank undermines the long-term credibility of the Swedish crown
A short note on Catalonia's referendum - PM Rajoy scores own goal with consequences for the entire EU
Japan: BoJ Tankan survey heralds growth acceleration - but imported inflation increasing at a faster pace than wages poses a risk to growth
China: Official PMI headline and price indices jump - but an ambiguous PBoC cuts banks' reserve requirement
29. September 2017
There will only be delayed updates today
Germany: Unemployment rate hits a new record low, but nominal wage increase only moderately
Japan: Strong output data and higher inflation are, of course, followed by yet another fiscal stimulus package
28. September 2017
Euro-zone ESI index jumps in September heralding growth in the range of 3.5% to 4.0% - Inflation expectations increase sharply
Germany: Households will see headwind from higher inflation and political turbulence; Draghi could soon become part of the ECB minority
27. September 2017
Italy: 'The weakest link' accelerates - buoyant business and consumer sentiment
USA: Strong durable goods orders boosted by aircraft - the outlook remains strong
France: Consumer confidence index declines as Macron passes labour market reform; households see increasing inflation
Minor correction to one table in the monthly newsletter
26. September 2017
US home prices remain on a robust uptrend as long as the Federal Reserve stays on track of slow monetary withdrawal
France - Service sentiment increases to the highest level since June 2011; Macron vs Unions: 2 - 0
25. September 2017
The CSU's Seehofer raises doubt about the union between CDU and CSU
Germany: IFO survey continues to show steady growth, but evaporating stability poses risk to consumer sentiment
Germany is headed towards significant political uncertainty; SPD turns into an opposition party
22. September 2017
South Korean exports skyrocket in September - 'No problem' as long as Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump only exchange insults
21. September 2017
USA: Strong Philadelphia Fed survey underscores a high probability of faster monetary 'normalisation'
What a divided Federal Reserve means for the financial market - Only minor changes in the macroeconomic statistics could change the balance of voting
20. September 2017
British consumer spending remains on a soft path despite stronger-than-expected retail sales report
Japan - The recovery gains momentum as a weak yen boosts exports and fails to derail private consumption
Bundestag election will move Germany towards the right, as FDP and AfD see increasing support
President Macron is on a road of no return! The outcome of the labour reform process could have significant consequences for France and the rest of the EU
18. September 2017
There will be no updates on September 19 - the last day of the 'Global Macroeconomic Update' roadshow
By Invitation: Chinese election with global implications - Xi Jinping's midterm election coming up
China: Tightening measures have brought home prices to a halt - more supply of 'affordable housing'
15. September 2017
USA: Elevated business sentiment has not yet been transformed into stronger hard data - industrial output declines sharply in August
US retail sales report disappoints, but households are still exposed to tailwinds - at least in the coming months
A short note on the Bank of England's U-turn five-minutes-past-twelve
China: No signs of any collapse in credit expansion - 'North Korea is not our problem'
Japan: Business and consumer sentiment remains immune to 'North Korean maverick beyond the reach of rational argument' - at least for the time being!
14. September 2017
USA - Inflation could surprise on the upside, but the real issue is historically low yields leaving no room for disappointment
China: Tighter monetary environment, Xi's campaign against 'excessive' debt and housing measures put a drag on investments
13. September 2017
Benign US producer price inflation - but US dollar and external forces could create short-term surprise on the upside
British labour market remains strong, but wage increases are still significantly below inflation
US JOLTS survey shows a tightening labour market - global bond markets leave no room for any negative surprises
12. September 2017
The Bank of England's deliberate policy of eroding households' real purchasing power to bolster asset prices could prove a significant policy error
USA: Nothing is able to derail small business sentiment - 'Good-time-to-expand' jumps to the highest level since 2004
A short note on China's latest 'easing' measures
11. September 2017
Italy: The recovery gains momentum propelled by ultra-loose monetary policy - but politics will prevent economic reforms and undermine long-term growth
Japan: Corporate spending has disappointed despite a strong rebound in July machinery orders
China: PPI inflation jumps boosted by successful reduction in excess capacity - Fiscal tightening in the pipeline?
8. September 2017
Germany: Trade report shows solid domestic and foreign demand - strong Chinese demand
Spain - Economy shows tentative signs of losing momentum; nonetheless, the outlook remains strong
China - Trade report shows no signs of an upcoming growth slow-down, but stronger yuan may hit exporters
ECB President Draghi is slowly realising that he is the Emperor wearing no clothes - but strong euro is good news for the Euro-zone
7. September 2017
Brazil: Central bank cuts policy rates by one percent but says that easing cycle may soon come to an end; low inflation, however, makes room for deeper cuts
China: Foreign exchange reserves increase but only slowly - tighter capital control in the pipeline
Germany is running at 'full capacity utilisation', but demand will remain strong - Berlin faces significant political headwinds
6. September 2017
US ISM service index bounces back - 'combined' employment index jumps to the highest level since 2005
Germany: 'Big items' pull down industrial orders, but outlook remains strong - Election winner is a given outcome but not coalition partners
5. September 2017
Brazil - The economy moves further away from recession; strong increase in July industrial output
Turkey fails to rein in inflation - soaring producer price inflation is a warning of higher CPI inflation
Euro-zone: Best leading indicators remain harbingers of strong private consumption despite a weak retail sales number
China: Strong Caixin service PMI survey supports anecdotal evidence from the mainland