Forgot login
Please fill in your e-mail adress below. We will send you a link with details on recovering your account.

 

Click image to close window.
24. March 2017
US durable goods orders report shows only 'tentative signs' of Trumponomics
Japan - Manufacturing Reuters Tankan index hits the highest level since April 2014; more yen appreciation is in the pipeline
China - Overseas investment plunges and domestic economy gains momentum; rail cargo jumps in February
23. March 2017
Strong US February 'new home sales' report; but the expectations gap created by Trumponomics remains too large
France - Manufacturing sentiment declines ahead of the presidential election; Macron may be a new face but he does not necessarily represent what the voters want
Germany - GfK survey shows yet another decline in the 'income expectations index' to the lowest level since 2014
22. March 2017
US existing home sales slow, but home price inflation gains momentum - Japanese stock market exposed to 'Trumponomics disappointment'
Japan - Exports jump boosted by strong Chinese demand and undervalued yen; but global risk-off will lead to yen appreciation
21. March 2017
Britain - CBI Industrial Trends Survey is a harbinger of significantly stronger growth; output expectations at the highest level since February 1995 or 1987
Britain - Inflation hits the highest level since 2013, as workers face yet another round of real wage erosion
20. March 2017
German factory gate inflation jumps to the highest level since 2011; SPD victory in September would move Berlin significantly to the left
Taiwanese export orders jump at the fastest rate since 2010 boosted by skyrocketing mainland demand
China 70-cities home price report - Strong housing market triggers tightening measures in several tier-2 cities
17. March 2017
'Trump effect' keeps consumer sentiment at an elevated level although stimulus may not hit the shores before in early 2018
Slow recovery in US manufacturing output as inventories decline
Euro-zone posts trade deficit in January; but trade surplus with the US hits a new all-time high
16. March 2017
Philadelphia Fed survey stronger than in the previous month because of very strong details - capex index skyrockets to the highest level since 1988
China - 'Surprisingly strong growth' - but monetary tightening poses a threat to the housing market
The main message of the Dutch election - 'preserve the welfare state and reduce immigration' - ECB consequences
15. March 2017
USA - Consumer price inflation increases to the highest level since 2012
Britain - Unemployment rate drops to the lowest level since 1975; households could soon see the next period of negative real wage increase
Italy - Households are headed towards significant headwind; Renzi's comeback is no longer a walk in the park
14. March 2017
US producer price inflation is trending higher; domestically created price pressure will replace imported inflation in H2 and beyond
US small business sentiment stays at elevated level; labour demand at highest level since 2001 as 'relative' supply is in decline
ZEW survey disappoints; German workers see slowest real wage increase since 2013
China - The economy 'seems' to be on a solid path of 'moderate' growth - PBoC remains biased towards tightening
13. March 2017
Italy - Manufacturing output falls sharply; export sector fails to benefit from stronger German economy
A short note on Turkey - President Erdogan could prove to be a wake-up call to many European voters
The White House attacks CBO as nonpartisan body scrutinizes economic reform plan
10. March 2017
Brazil - Yet another decline boosts probability of another rate cut in the very near future
Strong US labour market report in February keeps the Federal Reserve on path of four rate hikes in 2017
German trade report shows soaring imports from the Euro-zone as the country runs out of capacity
9. March 2017
China - Credit expansion slows in February; but Beijing remains biased towards monetary tightening as this may be the lull before the storm
ECB President Draghi will stop 'fighting populism' in Q3 before the Bundestag election
China - PPI inflation hits the highest level since September 2008; CPI inflation hits the lowest since January 2015
8. March 2017
USA - Skyrocketing ADP employment underscores high probability of four rate hikes in 2017
Short update of the 2017 Outlook
China posts first trade deficit since 2014; imports soar caused by stronger demand and alternative 'capital outflow'
7. March 2017
Brazil - The economy contracts again in Q4 but slow recovery will begin in H2
Euro-zone Q4 GDP details show strong contribution from household spending - but purchasing power erosion gains momentum
China - FX reserves increase in February - US import tax could force Beijing to make yuan free-floating
Germany - Industrial orders take a beating in January, but short-term outlook remains strong - Peter Navarro wants negotiations with Berlin
3. March 2017
Strong US ISM service survey makes March rate hike highly likely
Euro-zone - Short-term outlook for private consumption remains strong in spite of weak January report; inflation poses a significant risk
Turkey - President Erdogan has good reasons to strengthen his power as future economic data will not help him - Inflation jumps in February
Japan shows 'impressive' inflation after BoJ balance sheet five-doubled; BoJ is partly preventing higher wages
2. March 2017
Euro-zone inflation hits the highest level since January 2013; tapering after French election but before Bundestag election
South Korean exporters see tailwind from China and (maybe) the United States
1. March 2017
ISM survey - President Trump remains short of creating 'actual' growth, but expectations are soaring
Moderate wage increases in a tight German labour market could soon turn into a significant political issue as inflation increases
China PMI survey shows economy is gaining momentum; China and USA will add upward pressure on global inflation in 2017
28. February 2017
US Consumer confidence increases to the highest level since 2001
First US Q4 GDP revision raises contribution from private consumption at the expense of government spending
Sweden - Strong Q4 GDP growth and producer price inflation at the highest level since 1995
Switzerland - Sharp increase in KOF index in February heralds 3% growth as SNB balance sheet soars close to 120% of GDP
Japan - Weak industrial output report and surprisingly downbeat forecast
27. February 2017
US durable goods orders - elevated spending expectations, but so far no execution
EU survey - Business sentiment stays upbeat but consumer confidence hit by inflation
Euro-zone credit expansion slows marginally in January but financial repression gains momentum
24. February 2017
US new home sales report shows no signs yet of 'long-term household optimism'
Brazil - Steep increase in unemployment rate and inflation falling make leeway for deeper rate cuts
Italy - Higher business sentiment will not change weak H2 growth outlook as global headwind gains momentum
Trump administration betting on 'dynamic effects' is playing with fire; soaring mandatory spending will make budget cuts highly needed
23. February 2017
Germany - Higher consumer prices hit income expectations; inflation and Greece could turn into hot issues before Bundestag election
China - Home price inflation moderates - but Beijing risks creating the next upward leg in prices
French business sentiment stays at elevated level; significant headwind is building as 'experts' yet again ignore political risks
22. February 2017
Upbeat US existing home sales report; home prices up 7.1% year-on-year
British Q4 GDP report revised up as low-quality-growth supports the economy; the foundation for stronger household spending is eroding
German industrial IFO index bounces back in February, but retailer and service index fell
21. February 2017
South Korean exports jump at the fastest pace since January 2011; strong Asian demand will keep upward pressure on commodity prices
20. February 2017
Britain - CBI industrial output expectations jump to the highest level since 1995; but BoE stays put
Germany - Prices at the factory gates jump at the fastest pace since 2012; Merkel reacts to weak euro as inflation turns into election topic
17. February 2017
UK retail sales take a beating after strong performance since Brexit decision; risk of yet another round of real purchasing power erosion
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey boosted by strong demand for steel and metals
By Invitation: China and Trump - Competition about 'greatness'
16. February 2017
US Philadelphia Fed index skyrockets to the highest level since 1984
Australia - Labour market remains strong as business sentiment improves markedly
15. February 2017
USA - Utility output dents industrial production but outlook is very strong
USA - March rate hike seems highly likely after strong retail sales report and much higher inflation
Euro-zone trade surplus with the United States hits an all-time high, as exports double
President Trump's wings have been clipped but the GOP still shares his political agenda
British unemployment plunges in January as labour market becomes tighter
14. February 2017
US PPI report - Inflation is headed higher with or without Janet Yellen
China - Shadow lending soars ahead of New Year; PBoC remains on slow path of tightening but inflation poses risk of faster tightening
German ZEW survey heralds strong short-term but slowing long-term growth; opinion polls boost the probability of left-wing government
US small business sentiment stays at an elevated level even though President Trump is losing one battle after another; labour market tightens
Inflation gains momentum as China turns into an exporter of inflation
13. February 2017
Germany - Imported inflation on the rise - ECB policy hike in Q3 makes sense
Japan - PM Abe avoids humiliation by kowtowing to President Trump
10. February 2017
Britain - Manufacturing output soars at the fastest pace since January 2011; outlook is very strong, according to CBI
Italy - Industrial production soars in December; production expectations index jumps in January
China - Exports and imports soar in January; Donald Trump 'abandons Taiwan' and confirms 'One China' policy
9. February 2017
Germany - Export outlook remains strong in spite of weak December trade report as 'currency manipulator' threat gains momentum
Japan - Machinery orders bounce back; but polished apple will not be enough to please Trump on Friday
8. February 2017
Brazil - Yet another decline in inflation boosts probability of cut in policy rates; China gains influence in Brazil and the rest of South America
Spain - Weak industrial output report but economy remains on track; political uncertainty in core-EU countries poses risk
Japan - Economy Watcher Survey continues to show steady growth; PM Abe to curry favour with President Trump on Friday (updated)
7. February 2017
US trade report - Exports increase in spite of stronger dollar; fiscal stimulus plan will boost trade deficit due to net-savings-deficit
Germany - Steep decline in manufacturing output does not change upbeat outlook for the first half of 2017
China - Foreign exchange reserves fall below the US$3 trillion thresholds; more monetary tightening needed to keep the CFETS index stable