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20. October 2016
US existing home prices benefit from low supply and no monetary friction
Philadelphia Fed survey indicates manufacturing weakness to be a short-term phenomenon
Taiwanese export orders statistics underscore growth problems on the mainland; Beijing records highest budget deficit since the early 1970s
Dutch consumer confidence jumps to highest level since September 2007; but ECB may soon succeed in eroding household optimism
19. October 2016
US housing starts decline sharply and permits jump; NAHB survey is still a harbinger of more strength in the housing sector
UK labour market remains strong as fiscal and monetary policymakers play with fire
Stimulus measures keep GDP growth within the target range; Beijing is walking a tightrope ahead of decisive political changes as policymakers give and take
18. October 2016
US homebuilder index remains at an elevated level as the economy sees no major monetary headwind
US inflation trending slowly higher will add upward pressure on bond yields
British inflation and bond yields are headed higher as fiscal and monetary policymakers fail to turn Brexit into an opportunity
Beijing provides ample liquidity although to little benefit of the real economy
17. October 2016
Downbeat Empire State survey heralds weak manufacturing activity as Yellen sees benefits in letting inflation exceed central bank target of 2%
Japan Reuters Tankan: Manufacturing improves; but service sentiment plunges to lowest level since February 2013
14. October 2016
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey disappoints caused by a sharp decline in the expectations index
US retail sales report shows steady growth as households see no major headwind
US PPI report - ultra-low real bond yields leave no room for growth or inflation surprises
President Trump is a Black Swan event; but President Clinton combined with a highly polarised Congress could also end up being four years lost
China is no longer an exporter of deflation; FAO food price index on the rise
13. October 2016
Benign US import price report; but the case of higher bond yields is becoming stronger
UK RICS survey shows home price inflation is gaining momentum outside Central London
China: Sharp decline in exports underscores why Beijing will continue on the current path of depreciation after the US elections
12. October 2016
Mexico: Industrial production contracts as two years of a falling oil price bite
Japan: Stronger-than-expected machinery orders report is yet another false dawn
11. October 2016
Germany: ZEW index improves as CDU-CSU hits new record low in opinion polls
US NFIB small business headline index declines marginally but outlook index soars; the upcoming elections have already done irrevocable damage
10. October 2016
Italy: Industrial output jumps to highest level since October 2012
Weak EMU without political union continues to protect German exporters as the country turns into a classic boom-bust economy
China: Home prices soar in September as PBoC issues warning; RMB falls sharply against the USD
7. October 2016
Brazil: Marginally lower-than-expected inflation boosts possibility of rate cut in November; but monetary easing without fiscal austerity could backfire
Neutral US employment market report; but details and forward-looking indicators show solid labour market
Britain - August manufacturing output increased only moderately; but Carney-scenario of hell-breaks-loose remains absent - so far
Turning to a new round of fiscal expansion will open Pandora s Box; Britain sees the first consequences
6. October 2016
Germany: Industrial orders bounce back as the political establishment turns erratic
5. October 2016
US service ISM index jumps in September; employment index and orders index are skyrocketing
US ADP report: Best leading employment indicators remain buoyant; but this does not fit into weak growth projected by both ISM surveys
Britain: The consequences of relaunching QE and the fact that Brexit is actually Brexit
Sweden: Jump in service PMI index adds more pressure on the Riksbank; but Ericsson layoffs take the headlines
4. October 2016
Brazil: Temer is headed for an uphill struggle - steeper-than-expected decline in industrial output and worsening fiscal balances
Ireland: Unemployment rate declines to the lowest level since August 2008 as the country benefits from prudent economic reforms and fiscal austerity
Japan - Consumer confidence jumps to highest level since September 2013 - by courtesy of the Bank of Japan
3. October 2016
US ISM manufacturing index increases more sharply than market consensus; but manufacturing employment is still contracting
Japan - Quarterly Tankan survey shows weak growth; but labour market has become tighter - at the worst level since 1992
Strong Swedish PMI index and increasing inflation support monetary tightening and stronger currency
China - PMI surveys show steady growth - weaker trade-weighted yuan to compensate for end of monetary easing
30. September 2016
British consumer confidence jumps discrediting the BoE; inflation acceleration to be followed by a new round of deflation by courtesy of incompetent central banks
Leading Swiss KOF index jumps in September in spite of increasing headwind
South Korean economic data does not support positive picture outlined by economic indicators in Taiwan
Japan: Strong industrial output headline number disguises steep decline in shipments; weak household spending
29. September 2016
Spain remains on track of solid growth as solution to government crisis could emerge in the near future
EU survey shows broadening recovery as ultra-loose monetary policy prevails; higher energy prices pose a potential threat to households
Germany: Labour shortage increases to a new record high; perversely, negative opinion polls could trigger imprudent tax cuts
Japan: Retail sales report disappoints in August; but revamping of GDP data could boost growth significantly
28. September 2016
US durable goods orders headed lower in Q4; what is good for the middle class and below is bad for the corporate sector
A short note on Deutsche Bank: The political impact of a bail-out could be significant
Italy: Business and consumer surveys show mixed picture as voters are searching for a political alternative
Germany: Consumer climate declines, but low inflation keeps income expectations at an elevated level
27. September 2016
US consumer confidence jumps boosted by older people and low-income earners
Italy: Industrial orders plunge as Renzi calls referendum on December 4
The ECB succeeds in boosting liquidity; but actual borrowing remains weak
26. September 2016
US new home sales report shows mid-cycle economy; but it could turn late-cycle after the next rate hike in December
Mexico falls victim to potential Donald Trump victory; the peso plunges into significantly-undervalued-territory
German IFO index is skyrocketing to highest level since May 2014; Merkel forced to rule out assistance for Deutsche Bank
23. September 2016
Germany: Opinion poll propels AfD to a new record high; AfD success gives rise to second thoughts in Poland
China: MNI sentiment index bounces back from severe severe flooding; Taiwanese export orders show tentative signs of stronger rebound
22. September 2016
Britain: Strong manufacturing business sentiment; low inflation expectations create leeway for more monetary easing
France: Service sentiment hits highest level since July 2011, as domestic-oriented economy benefits from ECB and low inflation
Germany: Low inflation continues to boost real wages in Q2
21. September 2016
Japan: Export collapse continues as the Emperor-wearing-no-clothes launches new measures
20. September 2016
US housing starts report disappoints; but NAHB survey heralds upcoming strength
Dutch consumer confidence jumps as ECB failure continues to create tailwind; Merkel changes strategy
19. September 2016
USA - Strong homebuilder survey shows that the next asset price bubble is building in the property market by courtesy of the Federal Reserve
Merkel takes another beating in Berlin as AfD gains 14.2%
China: Is home price inflation out of control?
16. September 2016
US - UoM survey shows stable consumer sentiment at an elevated level; households are still not exposed to any major headwinds
US core inflation at the highest level since 2008; but headline inflation remains sufficiently low to boost households real purchasing power
Euro-zone labour cost inflation declines to lowest level since 2008; but Eastern Europe sees increasing wage pressure as unemployment hits new low
15. September 2016
USA: Benign inflation, weak retail sales and a moderate rebound in manufacturing sentiment
Ostrich approach in Brussels and Berlin will not save Greece or the EU; debt relief is the only option although not possible in front of German elections
British retail sales report much stronger than market consensus due to up-revised July report; but Carney remains on path of monetary easing, unfortunately!
Japan - Reuters Tankan survey shows rebound in sentiment in the manufacturing and service sector
14. September 2016
China - Housing market boosts bank lending
UK labour market report shows no signs yet of hell-breaks-loose scenario; but low inflation environment will keep BoE on a dovish path
13. September 2016
Weak retail sales report is a reminder of uphill struggle in Brazil; latest appreciation of real leaves no room for disappointment
German ZEW survey shows moderate growth in the short run; but long-term risks are on the rise
US small business survey: Stable outlook but shortage of skilled workers; job-openings-index is at the highest level since 2006
China: Housing market and government spending continue to support economic activity; no further monetary easing but more yuan devaluation
12. September 2016
Japan: Strong rebound in machinery orders does not change weak economic outlook; new round of global risk-off could reinforce upward pressure on yen
Federal Reserve: Rosenberg statement makes outcome of September meeting a cliffhanger
9. September 2016
Brazil: Inflation increases as US Federal Reserve September hike is yet again on the agenda
The Federal Reserve has two options - the final outcome remains the same
France: End of strikes fails to boost industrial output as Draghi running out of efficient ammo raises new questions
China: Pork prices put a lid on CPI inflation; but leading indicators point towards increasing inflation - FAO food price index jumps in August
8. September 2016
Turkey: Industrial production shows steepest decline since 2009
UK - RICS survey shows sharp reversal in house prices as Carney admits the economy is a bit stronger than forecast
China - Depreciating yuan boosts exports; coal imports soar
7. September 2016
JOLTS - US job-openings hit a new record high; the labour market is tight
British industrial output declines sharply in July; but the biggest impact from Brexit was caused by the Bank of England
China: FX reserves decline to lowest level since 2011; Beijing will speed up the devaluation process as G20 leaders have now left Hangzhou
Japan: Plunge in diffusion index is harbinger of yet another collapse in industrial production in Q4
Follow-up to disappointing ISM service survey