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5. December 2016
2017 Outlook - No Updates on December 6-7
US ISM service index jumps as President-elect Trump will slowly replace market liberalism with Mercantilism - fasten your seat belts!
Spain will see more headwind in 2017 but is in a much better position to survive Trump and Euro-zone crisis
Japan - Consumer confidence declines as yen weakens; household inflation expectations appear yet again to be on the rise
The outcome of Italian referendum is just one of several bricks disappearing from the EU wall
2. December 2016
Mixed US labour market report is still in line with December rate hike
President Erdogan recklessness hits back with a vengeance reinforced by Trump victory
The Swiss economy performs well in spite of significant headwind although this could become too much for comfort in 2017
1. December 2016
USA - ISM manufacturing sentiment index improves; Trumponomics risks creating more headwind later in 2017
Euro-zone sentiment boosted by factors that may disappear in 2017
China PMI survey - Soaring inflation expectations are a warning of too much complacency in the developed countries
30. November 2016
The Brazilian economy moves deeper into recession as President Temer also risks impeachment process
Germany is turning into a boom-bust economy; forward-looking indicators herald significantly tighter labour market
South Korea - Industrial output contracts as outlook for domestic and overseas demand deteriorates
29. November 2016
US consumer confidence boosted by Trumponomics (updated)
US GDP report revision - Stronger private consumption boosts growth in Q3
EU survey - Sentiment stays at elevated level - inflation expectations are on the rise
Japanese households struggle in spite of tight labour market; Trump victory to be short-lived as 2017 could become the year of global repatriation
28. November 2016
Euro-zone monetary aggregates expand at a slower pace; higher global bond yields are slowly undermining ECB policy
25. November 2016
South Korean consumer sentiment plunges to lowest level since 2008 as country sees multiple headwinds
Time is running out for Italy - Crisis in Rome could have impact on China-USA relationship
24. November 2016
US trade balance is back in the spotlight as Trump risks underestimating Beijing
Strong German IFO survey - service sentiment jumps as economy moves deeper into boom territory
French business surveys show steady growth supported by low inflation and benign monetary environment - Fillon win could boost CAC40
23. November 2016
US new-home-sales report disappoints but shows no signs yet of upcoming slow-down
US durable goods orders boosted by transportation; Trump infrastructure spending plan will create more harm than good because of time-lag
China MNI index increases; cargo by rail and ship shows strong bounce
22. November 2016
US existing home sales increase to highest level since February 2007 supported by pre-Trump monetary environment and low supply
Mexico is headed for serious trouble as Trump seems increasingly to walk as he talks
UK CBI manufacturing index jumps; price expectations soar
21. November 2016
Chancellor Merkel follows in the footsteps of Mr Trump - Infrastructure spending plan and significant boost to military spending - Are tax cuts in the pipeline as well?
Taiwan orders report indicates steady growth on the mainland; but the probability of Beijing-Washington tension is on the rise
Japan - Exports plunge; Trump victory weakens yen and may enable Tokyo to kill two birds with one stone
18. November 2016
Germany - Imported inflation is on the rise; Trumponomics poses risk to Euro-zone periphery
China - Tier-1 cities put a drag on home price inflation in a complex housing market; Trump victory provides opportunity to Beijing
17. November 2016
US housing-starts report benefits from favorable pre-election environment - this will change dramatically in 2017
US Philadelphia Fed index declines marginally - steep increase in prices-paid index - Trumponomics creates crowding-out
16. November 2016
US industrial production is only on a weak upward trend; ironically, Trump victory creates short-term headwind to the manufacturing sector
USA - Lower-than-expected producer price inflation; but future supply is the main driver in the bond market
Britain - Jobless claimants increase but labour shortage prevails
15. November 2016
Very strong US retail sales report before Trump was elected President; significant upward revision
Germany - ZEW survey conducted before and after US presidential election provides little information to the financial market
Britain - Low actual inflation will keep monetary policy ultra-loose
Germany - Q3 growth disappoints - Trump provides short-term opportunity but poses also a significant long-term threat
Unplugged travel notes from China trip
14. November 2016
Japan - Economy expands at a faster-than-expected pace in Q3; US election weakens yen but Trump poses a threat to Tokyo
China - Housing sector was the driving factor in October
President Trump opening Pandora's Box will cause crowding-out; soaring bond yields are in the pipeline
4. November 2016
China trip: NO UPDATES on November 4 and November 7 to November 11; Xi Jinping anointed core leader on par with Mao and Deng
3. November 2016
US ISM service index declines but price index continues to move higher
Italy - Unemployment increases as young voters oppose reform plan of PM Renzi; Five Star Movement could become largest party
China - Service index improves as all inflation indicators move higher
2. November 2016
By invitation: China's new Core Leader - Xi Jinping
Germany - Unemployment rate declines to lowest level since the 1980s
Britain - House prices stall in October as London is headed for serious headwind
1. November 2016
US manufacturing ISM survey better than market expectations; employment index jumps after disappointing in the previous months
Switzerland - Leading indicators point towards growth acceleration
Sweden - PMI index is skyrocketing to highest level since April 2011; consumer confidence increases sharply as well
China: PMI index jumps; skyrocketing input price index to highest since early 2011 could soon make the mainland an exporter of inflation
31. October 2016
Euro-zone Q3 GDP report shows moderate growth; households could be exposed to headwind in 2017
Japan - Industrial production disappoints but details are more upbeat; another round of yen weakness could hit back as a boomerang
28. October 2016
US Q3 GDP growth boosted by higher inventories and stronger exports
EU Commission survey - Industrialist inflation expectations are on the rise as growth is gaining momentum
French Q3 GDP report: The economy would have contracted without higher inventories
27. October 2016
USA - Durable goods orders stabilise but too much uncertainty about politics and monetary policy prevent investment from sustainable increase
Not even the ECB may be able to protect Italy in 2017
UK Q3 growth on the strong side of expectations as Carney admits BoE is not indifferent to the exchange rate
Spain - Unemployment rate declines to lowest level since 2009
26. October 2016
Down-revision does not change picture of a strong US housing market
Germany: Household income expectations fell relatively sharply in GfK consumer survey
Australia - New dovish governor of RBA headed for yet another rate cut
25. October 2016
US consumer confidence index retreats in October after strong September survey
US Case-Shiller home price index will stay on a steady upward trend until bond yields increase
Germany: Strong IFO survey as ECB pursues monetary policy of the weakest links
South Korea - A booming construction sector keeps economy from contracting in Q3
24. October 2016
Britain - CBI survey shows ambiguous outlook; majority of companies oppose weaker pound
21. October 2016
China: Home price inflation gains momentum as the supply-demand situation becomes even more complicated; demand increases as supply declines
20. October 2016
US existing home prices benefit from low supply and no monetary friction
Philadelphia Fed survey indicates manufacturing weakness to be a short-term phenomenon
Taiwanese export orders statistics underscore growth problems on the mainland; Beijing records highest budget deficit since the early 1970s
Dutch consumer confidence jumps to highest level since September 2007; but ECB may soon succeed in eroding household optimism
19. October 2016
US housing starts decline sharply and permits jump; NAHB survey is still a harbinger of more strength in the housing sector
UK labour market remains strong as fiscal and monetary policymakers play with fire
Stimulus measures keep GDP growth within the target range; Beijing is walking a tightrope ahead of decisive political changes as policymakers give and take
18. October 2016
US homebuilder index remains at an elevated level as the economy sees no major monetary headwind
US inflation trending slowly higher will add upward pressure on bond yields
British inflation and bond yields are headed higher as fiscal and monetary policymakers fail to turn Brexit into an opportunity
Beijing provides ample liquidity although to little benefit of the real economy
17. October 2016
Downbeat Empire State survey heralds weak manufacturing activity as Yellen sees benefits in letting inflation exceed central bank target of 2%
Japan Reuters Tankan: Manufacturing improves; but service sentiment plunges to lowest level since February 2013
14. October 2016
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey disappoints caused by a sharp decline in the expectations index
US retail sales report shows steady growth as households see no major headwind
US PPI report - ultra-low real bond yields leave no room for growth or inflation surprises
President Trump is a Black Swan event; but President Clinton combined with a highly polarised Congress could also end up being four years lost
China is no longer an exporter of deflation; FAO food price index on the rise
13. October 2016
Benign US import price report; but the case of higher bond yields is becoming stronger
UK RICS survey shows home price inflation is gaining momentum outside Central London
China: Sharp decline in exports underscores why Beijing will continue on the current path of depreciation after the US elections
12. October 2016
Mexico: Industrial production contracts as two years of a falling oil price bite
Japan: Stronger-than-expected machinery orders report is yet another false dawn