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27. April 2017
US durable goods orders - The gap between 'expectations' and 'actual' spending is still too wide
Spain - Unemployment is headed significantly lower as growth outlook improves
ECB President Draghi cannot ignore a very strong EU business and consumer survey - households are becoming highly upbeat about the labour market
South Korea - Significant increase in investments boosts first-quarter GDP growth; sentiment improves in spite of military tensions on the Korean peninsula
26. April 2017
Stronger 'actual' data will make it harder for ECB President Draghi to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy
France - Unchanged consumer confidence, but households are turning more upbeat on the labour market
25. April 2017
US consumer confidence declines in April; but households remain highly upbeat about the labour market
US home prices continue to see support from a benign monetary environment and low supply - the Federal Reserve remains on an unchanged path of several rate hikes
France - Business sentiment recovers in April from a weak March survey - Melenchon voters could still cause trouble for Macron in the second round
24. April 2017
CBI survey continues to herald strong growth, but inflation expectations stay at an elevated level
Strong IFO survey in April; Germany faces strong tailwind and September election appears to become a 'walk in the park' for Chancellor Merkel
Macron win is worth nothing unless he gains decisive victory in the National Assembly election in June
21. April 2017
Britain - Real wage erosion hits retail sales - EU President would welcome UK if voters were to change their minds on June 8
Francois Fillon is the best reflection of French voters
20. April 2017
Philadelphia Fed index falls sharply in April - but capex index increases yet again to a new record high
German core PPI inflation hits the highest level since October 2011 - AfD 'self-destruction' intensifies - Dutch consumer confidence jumps to a new record high
Japan - Manufacturing sentiment hits the highest level since July 2007 - strong export performance in spite of a stronger yen
19. April 2017
China sees net direct investment inflow in Q1 - but the trade-weighted yuan index hits the lowest level since 2014
18. April 2017
Trump optimism fails to transform into stronger 'actual' output; the outlook could deteriorate significantly in the very near future
USA - Ambiguous March housing starts report shows steady uptrend - but other cyclical indicators are losing faith in Trumponomics
The 'failure of Trumponomics' is complete leaving a huge 'expectations gap'
China - Tightening measures fail to 'kill' the housing market; Beijing is not a 'currency manipulator', according to Trump
The Chinese economy is gaining momentum ahead of the 19th Party Congress as Beijing pursues ambiguous economic policy
12. April 2017
Easter - There are no updates on April 13, 14 and 17
British workers face real wage erosion as BoE remains the 'protector of the wealth of the upper 1%' rather than the middle class and below
Japan - Still no signs of stronger corporate spending - Tokyo joins military build-up close to Korean peninsula
China inflation report - Beijing tightens with one hand and provide new stimulus to the economy with the other hand - Has Beijing 'approved' US military action in North Korea?
11. April 2017
US NFIB survey - 'Finding qualified workers' is the single most important business problem
Strong German ZEW survey indicates acceleration in demand - the economy is screaming for a rate hike
British price report shows higher-than-expected inflation, but forward-looking inflation indicators are no longer deteriorating
10. April 2017
Italy - The manufacturing sector remains weak in spite of upbeat business sentiment
The risk of US military action in North Korea is on the rise - the alternative, to wait, would not make a future solution any easier
7. April 2017
US March labour market report was far weaker than market expectations; bad weather may have played a significant role
German trade report shows further acceleration in imports from Euro-zone member states
US update - Fed tightening, Trump failure, foreign policy U-turn and what about North Korea?
6. April 2017
Germany - Industrial orders bounce back strongly - outlook brightens according to IFO details
Japan - Consumer confidence increases to the highest level since September 2013 as inflation expectations plunge
5. April 2017
Mexico - Consumer confidence continues to recover as the currency bounces back strongly
US ISM Service index takes a beating in March as President Trump fails to deliver - steep decline in employment index
US ADP Employment report shows strong hiring in March; wage inflation is in the pipeline
French Election - Do not underestimate Francois Fillon, who has probably most in common with the voters!
4. April 2017
US trade deficit narrows in February; but Wilbur Ross pours petrol on the fire shortly before the Xi-Trump meeting
Euro-zone - Stronger retail sales in February as improving labour market offsets the negative impact of a comeback to inflation
Spain is headed for 'only' three million unemployed after yet another steep decline in March; higher inflation poses threat to growth
3. April 2017
USA - ISM manufacturing index stays close to a record high, as the employment and output index jumps; but failing President Trump risks deflating sentiment in the very near future
Euro-zone producer price inflation hits the highest level since November 2011
Sweden - PMI index soars to the highest level since May 2010; but economic success fails to reduce support for the Sweden Democrats
Japan - BoJ Tankan survey shows improvement but no signs of an upcoming capex boom
31. March 2017
Germany - Unemployment number shows the steepest decline since September 2011
Japan - Industrial output jumps in February - METI forecasts significant increase in the coming months
China - Service and manufacturing ISM surveys show broadening economic expansion
30. March 2017
Brazil - Retail sales show surprisingly steep decline in January; but consumer confidence jumps to highest level since 2014
Germany - Consumer price inflation declines at the same time as households' price expectations soar
EU survey - German households boost EMU sentiment propelled by stronger labour market; inflation 'expectations' still on the rise in spite of soft March inflation data
29. March 2017
Italy - Business and consumer sentiment improves, but 5Stars-Movement support hits a record high
France - Unchanged consumer confidence, but inflation expectations are on the rise - Is Emmanuel Macron really what the French voters want?
28. March 2017
US consumer confidence is skyrocketing to highest level since 2000; sentiment is at risk if based on President Trump's ability to hit the mark
Mexico survived the first Trump attack, but there is little room to absorb new shocks from Washington
US Case-Shiller Home Price report - Households see support from 'wealth effect' and a stronger labour market
German 'Goldilocks' story continues - public sector debt declines as interest payments plunge
27. March 2017
The failure of Trumponomics could trigger significant US dollar sell-off
Germany IFO - Industrial sentiment increases while service sentiment falls again - The political impact of the Saarland election
24. March 2017
US durable goods orders report shows only 'tentative signs' of Trumponomics
Japan - Manufacturing Reuters Tankan index hits the highest level since April 2014; more yen appreciation is in the pipeline
China - Overseas investment plunges and domestic economy gains momentum; rail cargo jumps in February
23. March 2017
Strong US February 'new home sales' report; but the expectations gap created by Trumponomics remains too large
France - Manufacturing sentiment declines ahead of the presidential election; Macron may be a new face but he does not necessarily represent what the voters want
Germany - GfK survey shows yet another decline in the 'income expectations index' to the lowest level since 2014
22. March 2017
US existing home sales slow, but home price inflation gains momentum - Japanese stock market exposed to 'Trumponomics disappointment'
Japan - Exports jump boosted by strong Chinese demand and undervalued yen; but global risk-off will lead to yen appreciation
21. March 2017
Britain - CBI Industrial Trends Survey is a harbinger of significantly stronger growth; output expectations at the highest level since February 1995 or 1987
Britain - Inflation hits the highest level since 2013, as workers face yet another round of real wage erosion
20. March 2017
German factory gate inflation jumps to the highest level since 2011; SPD victory in September would move Berlin significantly to the left
Taiwanese export orders jump at the fastest rate since 2010 boosted by skyrocketing mainland demand
China 70-cities home price report - Strong housing market triggers tightening measures in several tier-2 cities
17. March 2017
'Trump effect' keeps consumer sentiment at an elevated level although stimulus may not hit the shores before in early 2018
Slow recovery in US manufacturing output as inventories decline
Euro-zone posts trade deficit in January; but trade surplus with the US hits a new all-time high
16. March 2017
Philadelphia Fed survey stronger than in the previous month because of very strong details - capex index skyrockets to the highest level since 1988
China - 'Surprisingly strong growth' - but monetary tightening poses a threat to the housing market
The main message of the Dutch election - 'preserve the welfare state and reduce immigration' - ECB consequences
15. March 2017
USA - Consumer price inflation increases to the highest level since 2012
Britain - Unemployment rate drops to the lowest level since 1975; households could soon see the next period of negative real wage increase
Italy - Households are headed towards significant headwind; Renzi's comeback is no longer a walk in the park
14. March 2017
US producer price inflation is trending higher; domestically created price pressure will replace imported inflation in H2 and beyond
US small business sentiment stays at elevated level; labour demand at highest level since 2001 as 'relative' supply is in decline
ZEW survey disappoints; German workers see slowest real wage increase since 2013
China - The economy 'seems' to be on a solid path of 'moderate' growth - PBoC remains biased towards tightening
13. March 2017
Italy - Manufacturing output falls sharply; export sector fails to benefit from stronger German economy
A short note on Turkey - President Erdogan could prove to be a wake-up call to many European voters
The White House attacks CBO as nonpartisan body scrutinizes economic reform plan
10. March 2017
Brazil - Yet another decline in inflation boosts the probability of another rate cut in the very near future
Strong US labour market report in February keeps the Federal Reserve on path of four rate hikes in 2017
German trade report shows soaring imports from the Euro-zone as the country runs out of capacity
9. March 2017
China - Credit expansion slows in February; but Beijing remains biased towards monetary tightening as this may be the lull before the storm
ECB President Draghi will stop 'fighting populism' in Q3 before the Bundestag election
China - PPI inflation hits the highest level since September 2008; CPI inflation hits the lowest since January 2015
8. March 2017
USA - Skyrocketing ADP employment underscores high probability of four rate hikes in 2017
Short update of the 2017 Outlook
China posts first trade deficit since 2014; imports soar caused by stronger demand and alternative 'capital outflow'