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15. December 2017
There will be no updates on December 18, December 22-January 1 - Outlook 2018
US industrial report: Moderate increase in November output but significant up-revision of already strong October report; ISM survey heralds much stronger output increases
US Empire State survey: Capital spending index skyrockets to the highest level since 2011 - Investment boom in the pipeline?
Japan: BoJ Tankan survey heralds very strong growth and the tightest labour market since the early 1990s
14. December 2017
Strong US retail sales report shows that fiscal policymakers are playing with fire; global liquidity tightening will intensify in 2018
China: Solid economic reports in November - PBoC raises policy rates as it prepares for the 'Trump tsunami'
13. December 2017
US CPI report: The Republican party makes the current level of inflation irrelevant; instead, the Federal Reserve will focus on the future inflation impact of fiscal stimulus measures
Euro-zone: Industrial output is on a strong uptrend, and more fuel is in the pipeline
Japan: Disappointing machinery orders in 2017 have not prevented strong growth contribution from corporate investment in Q3 - Inflation may emerge faster than currently predicted by investors
12. December 2017
US PPI report: Fiscal expansion boosts the risk of an inflation surprise to the upside
US NFIB small business sentiment index skyrockets to the highest level since 1984
German ZEW survey: Strong short-term growth but a 'cautious outlook' - the political situation is 'mission impossible'
Britain: Inflation has gained a stronger foothold; sterling's vulnerability is disguised by all global engines running
11. December 2017
China: Monetary statistics show strong lending in November - PBoC will maintain tight liquidity in 2018
China: Lower inflation is now excellent news ahead of the monetary impact of US fiscal expansion
8. December 2017
USA: UoM consumer sentiment index declines in December, but it remains on an elevated level
Strong US labour market report, moderate wage increases - the 'job offers' outlook is very strong
France: Manufacturing output is skyrocketing; President Macron approval rating jumps as well
China: Strong domestic demand and exporters benefit from the recovery of the 'old world'; Washington poses a possibility as well as a significant risk to Beijing
7. December 2017
China: FX reserves are still recovering, but outbound pressure remains strong
Japan: The combined Reuters Tankan index hits the highest level on record, as BoJ is slowly changing monetary policy
6. December 2017
USA: ADP Employment Report continues to show buoyant labour market, as the share of households seeing more job in the future increased to the highest level since 1984
Australia: Moderate GDP growth in Q3, low wage and price inflation will keep the RBA on a path of loose monetary policy; AUD will see declining support in 2018
Germany: Industrial orders remain on a strong upward trend, which could be reinforced by the US tax reform - but only in the short run
5. December 2017
USA: ISM service index declines in November, although the survey continues to herald healthy economic growth and a strong labour market
USA: The economy is on a classic path of increasing current account deficit; the Republican tax reform bill will reinforce this trend
Euro-zone: A weak retail sales report does not give rise to change a highly upbeat outlook for private consumption, but US tax reform poses an indirect threat to Euro-zone households
China: Service PMI survey heralds stable growth in 2018, but irresponsible US tax reform poses a threat to Beijing's game plan
4. December 2017
Turkey: Inflation hits the highest level since the country escaped hyperinflation in 2003; a full-blown economic and political crisis could emerge in 2018
Japan: Consumer confidence hits the highest level since September 2013 - US tax deal will add downward pressure on the yen and fuel the stock market in the near future, but....
US tax reform will create short-term tailwind for the stock market, but it will release a hurricane in 2018
1. December 2017
US ISM survey: The manufacturing sector remains upbeat late in the business cycle; the global economy is headed towards 'synchronised monetary tightening' after 'synchronised growth'
Brazil: The economy moves slowly but surely out of recession, but the country faces headwinds in 2018 from general election and 'synchronised global tightening'
Swedish, Swiss and other PMI surveys show acceleration of growth; reckless central banks are now facing monetary tightening as economic players are left far out on the risk curve
30. November 2017
US personal income-consumption report shows that the economy is on a path of classic asset price inflation led expansion
Euro-zone unemployment declines to the lowest level since January 2009, but benign inflation provides Mr Draghi an excuse to act slowly
Japan: If the economy was based on METI's notoriously upbeat forecasts, it would have been booming - but it is not!
China: Manufacturing and service PMI surveys herald stable growth going into 2018; housing market will continue to be the main growth driver
29. November 2017
US Q3 GDP growth revised up because of higher inventories and corporate spending; excessive monetary stimulus will force the Fed to act more aggressively in H1
EU Commission survey: Sentiment increases, but industrial and consumer inflation expectations hit a new high
Sweden: Underlying Q3 GDP details show strong domestic demand - Riksbank risks being trapped by an abrupt fall in home prices and long overdue global monetary tightening
Japan: Private consumption remains weak going into Q4 after weak Q3 - October retail sales show the biggest decline since one year ago
28. November 2017
US consumer confidence index jumps to the highest level since November 2000 as households barely see any headwinds
US housing market exposed to no significant headwind continues to show buoyant home prices
ECB's monetary report shows steady growth, but Draghi is puzzled by the strength of the euro taking soaring interest rate differential into account
Spain: Retail sales fell sharply in October as constitutional crisis takes its toll - but the latest opinion poll shows no support for independence
Finally, there is good news from French households
27. November 2017
US new home sales report continues to show an economy exposed to 'excessive stimulus'; the risk of a fast-track monetary normalisation process is on the rise
Italy: Business and consumer sentiment surveys herald annual growth in the range of 1.5% to 2.0% in 2018; Euro-zone political headwind is gaining momentum
24. November 2017
Germany: IFO index jumps to yet another record high; the country is headed towards a series of political crises
23. November 2017
Chinese stock market 'turmoil': Beijing deliberately created headwinds, but policymakers are still in control; economic imbalances will increase without sweeping economic reforms although they are not in the pipeline
France: Manufacturing and service sentiment surveys are harbingers of 3% growth, but weak or no significant decline in unemployment
Euro-zone consumer confidence index jumps to the highest level in 17 years
22. November 2017
US durable goods orders report disappoints in October, but the short-term outlook remains strong; conversely, the yield curve flattens rapidly
A short note on German politics - FDP gains in the latest opinion poll, while CDU-CSU sees support declining below 30%
21. November 2017
USA: Low supply of unsold houses fuels home prices - and maintains a positive wealth effect
Britain: Manufacturing order book index skyrockets to the highest level since 1988
20. November 2017
Taiwanese export orders show no signs yet of slower global economic activity, but.....
Germany is now in uncharted waters, as new election seems the most likely outcome - Do younger CDU-members have the courage to challenge the leadership of Angela Merkel?
China: Home prices are behaving exactly as outlined in the strategy of Beijing, but faster-than-expected US tightening will test Chinese policymakers
17. November 2017
US housing market shows signs of stronger 'hard data' - more in the pipeline!
16. November 2017
USA: Finally, robust 'hard data'; the short-term outlook is very strong and inventories declined in Q3
US Philadelphia Fed survey: The details show a robust economy which requires a 'classic' monetary tightening cycle
British retail sales show an outright decline in October - Outlook is weak and the BoE is cornered!
China: Soon, Beijing could decide to tighten capital control, as capital outflow is again on the rise
The euro: The political establishment is not applauded by the voters as they benefit little from the 'recovery of the upper-1%'
15. November 2017
USA: Retail sales report shows no signs of slowing private consumption; households supported by moderate inflation and a strong labour market
Euro-zone: Increasing trade surplus with the United States is mirrored in a similar deficit with China; global trade frictions are on the rise
Japanese Q3 GDP report: Honestly, there is really no reason to be impressed; the details do not give rise to optimism
Germany: The political situation is a big mess, but the economy rides on a wave of ample liquidity and 'Gerhard Schroeder's reforms
14. November 2017
US PPI inflation continues to increase, as short-term price and wage pressure is building; labour market is tightening
Britain: Consumer price inflation seems to have peaked, but households will remain exposed to real purchasing power contraction in 2018
Australia: Business sentiment soars in October; capital spending in the mining sector is on the rise
USA: A strong rebound in the details of the US small business survey keeps the Federal Reserve on a path of tightening in December
China: The economy lost momentum after CCP Congress; a sharp decline in residential home sales
13. November 2017
China: Credit expansion slows markedly, but PBoC will maintain tight monetary policy
Unplugged 'Travel Notes': China as a long-term threat rather than an opportunity gains momentum among foreign companies
3. November 2017
China trip - No updates from November 6 to 10
Buoyant US ISM Service survey keeps the Federal Reserve on a path of a December hike and several policy hikes in 2018
US employment report is 'neutral' taking revision in September into account; flat wages are a disappointment
China: Caixin's October PMI service index shows only a muted bounce after sharp decline in September; tight liquidity situation
2. November 2017
US productivity gains are still too slow to hit Trump's growth target without creating inflation
Germany: ECB's reluctant monetary 'withdrawal' process will worsen the labour shortage problem, although workers may not benefit much from this
Japan: Consumer confidence hits the highest level since September 2013, as the money printing strategy has not yet created 'excessive inflation'
1. November 2017
US manufacturing ISM survey is still in line with robust growth in Q4 and Q1 despite the fact that the headline index fell in October
US ADP employment increases sharply in October; employment outlook is improving according to businesses and households
President Xi's focus on an excessive debt level poses a risk to commodity prices - and may pose a risk to global asset prices in 2018
31. October 2017
US Conference Board consumer confidence index jumps to the highest level since 2000; more households see higher wages and much stronger labour market
USA: Q3 Employment Cost Index continues to increase at a 'surprisingly' low rate
Japan: Industrial output is still increasing at a slower rate than outlined by the best forward-looking indicators - but the outlook is improving
France: The economy expands at the fastest pace since 2011, although the underlying quality of the Q3 GDP report was low; the outlook remains very strong
South Korea: Manufacturing business sentiment skyrockets to the highest level since 2011
China PMI surveys: Manufacturing and services sentiment fell in October - Is this a trend shift?
30. October 2017
Euro-zone Economic Sentiment Index jumps to the highest level since January 2001; industrial sentiment hits the level ever recorded
Swiss KOF index jumps to the highest level since 2010
27. October 2017
USA: Inventories help to boost growth in the third quarter - the growth outlook remains strong, not least if Trump reappoints Janet Yellen
France: Consumer confidence continues to decline; households' inflation expectations skyrocket in October
Several members of the ECB's Governing Council are probably wondering whether they participated in the same meeting as Mr Draghi
By Invitation: Socialist China v 3.0 and Xi Jinping's new 'Dream Team'
26. October 2017
Italy: Business sentiment hits the highest level since 2007 - ECB President 'may' feel it is about time to reconsider monetary policy - or what?